NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 16, 2022

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-8) at New York Jets (7-7)
Line: Jets by 1. Total: 37.
Thursday, Dec. 22, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 15 Analysis: It was awesome to have a strong Week 15. I’ll continue to break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Vikings, 4 units (win): It’s crazy that we had to sweat out a potential touchdown in overtime after the Colts were up 33-0!

Ravens, 3 units (loss): We lost our teaser here as well, which was frustrating. The Ravens had five possessions that reached or exceeded the Cleveland 35-yard line, yet they produced just three points on those possessions. Unreal.

Dolphins, 3 units (win): I was a fool for reducing the unit count from four to three, but as Cam Newton once said, hindsight is 50-50.

Steelers, 4 units (win): If I didn’t have to pay so much vig, I would have bumped this to five units. This was my second-favorite play of the week.

Jaguars, 4 units (win): The Jaguars spent most of the afternoon pissing down their leg. They were down 27-10, but found a way to not only cover, but win outright. I’d be lying if I told you I didn’t give up on this game.

Cardinals, 3 units (loss): Our only loss on Sunday occurred because Colt McCoy got hurt. I think Arizona would have covered, or at least pushed if McCoy remained in the game. Trace McSorley was terrible and gave the Cardinals no chance.

Titans, 5 units (push): Our top play pushed. It sucks that Mike Vrabel didn’t go for two at the end. Otherwise, we would have won this bet and had a monster week.

Before I begin, I should note that we have some new features, including WalterFootball Premium. We’ve gotten lots of complaints about the ads over the years, but there hasn’t been anything I can do about them because I’ve needed the ad revenue to pay my employees and the hosting. This is an alternative way to view the site. For $7.99 per month, you won’t get any ads. You’ll also have access to a premium chat where I’ll be every day to answer any questions. The chat will be available soon. If you want to support the site, besides telling others about it, signing up for WalterFootball Premium would be a great way to do so!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’s unclear whom the Jets will start at quarterback as of this writing, but it sounds like it’ll be Zach Wilson once again. Robert Saleh told the media that White still has “a lot of hurdles” to clear before suiting up to play. Given that he has just two more days to recover before this contest, it’s likely that White won’t be back until Week 17.

This is obviously bad news for the Jets. This is a great matchup for Wilson, but there’s no guarantee that he’ll be able to take advantage of it. Wilson had a solid first half in another plus matchup last week, yet he made some mistakes following intermission and wasn’t very accurate overall. The Jaguars are poor against the pass, but there’s no guarantee that Wilson will exploit Jacksonville’s secondary.

The Jets would love to run the ball to keep Wilson from making more blunders. This didn’t work last week because Detroit has a stellar run defense. The Jaguars aren’t as good versus the rush, but they’re still ranked 14th in that regard, so I don’t think Zonovan Knight will have a huge game.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: It looked like the Jaguars were going to suffer a blowout loss to the Cowboys during the third quarter of last week’s game. They were down 27-10, but their offense exploded after that, with Jacksonville ultimately winning in overtime, 40-34.

The Jaguars have their work cut out for them in this matchup, especially if Quinnen Williams plays. Trevor Lawrence’s pass protection will be worse with left tackle Cam Robinson out for the year, so the Jets will be able to get to him, though less so if Williams doesn’t take the field. Lawrence will also be throwing into a stellar secondary that will limit his weapons.

The one weakness the Jets have on this side of the ball is their inability to defend pass-catching running backs. Logically, this would be an area that Travis Etienne would be able to exploit because of his pass-catching ability. However, the Jaguars aren’t using Etienne as a receiver for some reason. Etienne has just five total receptions in the past four games.

RECAP: I’d feel much better about this wager if White were starting, but I’m still going with the Jets. I have them rated as a better team than Jacksonville, which is why projected spread for this game is New York -3. Yet, the line is only -1 or pick ’em, so we’re getting decent value with the host.

This line is low for two reasons. First, Wilson sucks. While this is true, he has a great matchup, so he shouldn’t be too terrible. Second, everyone suddenly loves the Jaguars after their overtime victory over the Cowboys, but that was a fluky result, and I say that as someone who bet four units on Jacksonville. The Jaguars could have easily lost that game, and if they had, this spread would be closer to the -2.5 advance number.

I’m not making a big wager here or anything, but with the Jets winning by three being the most likely result of this game, I’m willing to wager a unit or two on them, depending on Williams’ status.

Our Week 16 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It looks like Quinnen Williams will play after practicing fully on Wednesday. The Jaguars will be without Travon Walker and potentially multiple offensive linemen. Cam Robinson is out, while Brandon Scherff and Jawaan Taylor are questionable. I’ll be betting on the Jets, and the inactives list will determine the unit count.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp money has come in on the Jets, as they brought the line to -2.5 in most sportsbooks. In fact, you have to pay extra vig in some books to even get the -2.5. Fortunately, Bovada, BetUS and BetMGM have -2.5 -110 available.

New York Giants (8-5-1) at Minnesota Vikings (11-3)
Line: Vikings by 4. Total: 48.
Saturday, Dec. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: An encouraging sign for the Giants in their win over the Redskins was that Saquon Barkley looked like his former self again. Barkley had been through a funk in which he struggled mightily because he was banged up, but he’s now healthy again. That’s obviously great news for the Giants’ outlook because of their lacking receiving threats.

Barkley has a tougher matchup in this game as a rusher, as Minnesota is sixth against ground attacks. However, he’s a terrific receiving threat out of the backfield, so he’ll be able to generate yardage that way.

While the Vikings are stout against the run, they’re miserable at defending the pass. They have the sixth-worst aerial defense, according to adjusted EPA. They have shoddy cornerback play and a pass rush that is ranked ninth-worst in pressure rate. Daniel Jones can play at a high level when he’s kept clean in the pocket. But don’t take my word for it:



MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Speaking of pass rushes, it’s imperative to investigate how Kirk Cousins fares against the blitz because the Giants blitz more than any other team in the NFL. I don’t feel like uploading another image, but I can tell you that Cousins isn’t terrible against the blitz, but he’s not very good in that regard either. His completion percentage, compared to when he’s not blitzed, drops from 68.4 to 55.6, and his YPA falls from 7.5 to 5.6, but he has six touchdowns and two interceptions.

Still, Cousins is someone who holds on to the ball too long on occasion, which is not a good formula for a team with offensive line concerns. The Giants should be able to apply pressure on him and perhaps force a turnover or two.

The Vikings can negate this pressure by establishing Dalvin Cook again. Cook figures to have a great game once again because the Giants have the fourth-worst run defense. We just saw Brian Robinson Jr. trample New York’s front, so Cook will pick up where he left off.

RECAP: Here we go again! Vikings fans already want my head on a spike, and yet, I’m going to make even more enemies in Minnesota.

Anyone who has been reading this picks page or NFL Power Rankings knows that I’ve constantly argued throughout the year that the Vikings continue to be the most overrated team in the NFL. They’ve been so incredibly lucky this season. I can go through their cupcake schedule and point out all the times they easily could have been defeated. They were down 10 to the Lions in the fourth quarter of their initial meeting, and only came back because Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift suffered injuries. They needed a missed field goal to beat an Alvin Kamara-less Saints team in London. They were outgained by 224 net yards against Miami’s third-string quarterback. The Redskins were up seven in the middle of the fourth quarter when Taylor Heinicke gave away the game with a horrible interception. On Thanksgiving, the Vikings were outgained by the Patriots in terms of total yards and yards per play, yet prevailed because the Patriots screwed up twice on special teams. And the coup de grace, the so-called “greatest comeback in NFL history,” saw the Vikings trail 33-0 to a 4-9-1 team that was missing its best offensive and defensive players and being coached by an ESPN analyst.

The Vikings are 11-3, but team records are the siren song of the uninformed ESPN viewer. They had a negative point differential entering Week 15. They rank 22nd in net adjusted EPA. They could easily be 7-7 or even 6-8 right now, and if they were, they would not be 3.5-point favorites over the Giants.

Speaking of the Giants, I’ve made some enemies on that front as well this year. However, I think they are even with the Vikings – they are three spots behind Minnesota in net adjusted EPA – which would mean that this spread would have to be Minnesota -1.5. Thus, we’re getting some nice value at this +3.5, which correlates nicely with the two most likely results of this game, which are Vikings by three and Giants by three in some order. I’ll take winning both with this line!

The public, by the way, disagrees with my analysis. They are all over the Vikings, yet the line has dropped. There’s been some major sharp money on the Giants, which is music to my ears.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m dropping my unit count. I’ve been thinking about it, and I can’t bet a huge sum on the Giants because I think as poorly of them as I do the Vikings. I still think the Giants are the right side, but this is not like backing the Colts, who are rated higher per the metrics than Minnesota because of their great defense and running game (before Jonathan Taylor got hurt). The Giants don’t have much going for them, as they are rated lower than the Vikings.

FRIDAY NOTES: The primary NFL games are on Saturday this week, so we’ll have Friday Notes instead of Saturday Notes. The main takeaway from the injury report is that the Vikings don’t have Garrett Bradbury again. I’ve settled on this being a three-unit wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been sharp action on the Giants on Saturday morning, which doesn’t surprise me. The best line is +4 -105 at Bookmaker.

New Orleans Saints (5-9) at Cleveland Browns (6-8)
Line: Browns by 3. Total: 32.
Saturday, Dec. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides are now 22-28-1 this year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Bills -7

Ravens +3

Vikings -4

Falcons +4

A very rough week for the public, as tons of favorites covered.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Bengals -3.5

Chargers -4

Jaguars PK

49ers -7

Lions -2.5

Vikings -3

I can’t say I’m surprised that there are so many road favorites.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Browns held the Ravens to just three points last week, which may fool people into thinking that they have a great chance of stopping the Saints. In realty, Baltimore reached or exceeded the Cleveland 35-yard line on five occasions with its backup quarterback, yet scored just three points on those possessions. They were done in by a fourth-down run stuff on Cleveland 7-yard line, two missed field goals, and an interception.

This is nothing new for the Ravens, who have struggled with offensive efficiency since Lamar Jackson began racking up injuries in October. The Saints have a chance to be better in this regard because they’ll be able to take advantage of some of Cleveland’s liabilities. The Browns are terrible against the run, so Alvin Kamara should finally be able to snap out of his slump. The Browns are also missing all of their linebackers, which bodes well for Kamara as a receiver out of the backfield.

The Saints should be able to use the running game to give Andy Dalton easier passing opportunities. The Browns struggle to get to the quarterback – they have the eighth-worst pressure rate in the NFL – so Dalton will have time to locate Chris Olave and the emerging Rashid Shaheed for big gains.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Deshaun Watson has been improving each week, so it’s only a matter of time before he pulls everything together and reverts to his pre-2021 form. Watson, however, is still not quite himself, so it’s highly unlikely that he’ll be able to fully take advantage of this plus matchup.

This is definitely a plus matchup for Watson because the Saints also struggle to get to the quarterback. Cameron Jordan has been a shell of his former self, which is why New Orleans has the fourth-worst pressure rate in the NFL. It’s unclear if Marshon Lattimore will be able to return from his long absence, and if he doesn’t, Cleveland’s receivers will have an easy time getting open.

The Saints also aren’t great against the run. We just saw Tyler Allgeier trample them, so I don’t need to tell you that this is likely to be problematic versus Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

RECAP: I think this line is a tad too high. I think the Browns are a little bit better than the Saints, so my projected line was Cleveland -2. This spread is -3, which means we’re getting a win and a push with the two most likely results of this game, which is either side winning by three.

That said, I worry about Watson. There’s going to be a game, whether it’s in the final three weeks, or early next year, where he suddenly reverts to the great quarterback we saw in Houston. It was evident this was not going to happen against the Texans or Bengals, but we saw some glimpses of it this past Saturday. I don’t want to be on the wrong side of that.

Still, I like the Saints to cover, and I’m willing to bet a small amount on that. I like the line value and the key numbers enough to bet on New Orleans.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Browns have a ton of injuries, with Myles Garrett, Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, and Jadeveon Clowney not practicing at all thus far. I may bet more on the Saints depending on what the final report looks like.

FRIDAY NOTES: I thought the Browns looked bad on the injury report, but only Jadeveon Clowney (out) and John Johnson (questionable) are listed now. Meanwhile, the Saints will be without Chris Olave, Jarvis Landry and Pete Werner, and they may not have Marshon Lattimore again. I still think it’ll be difficult for the Browns to win by four or more, so I’m going to bet a couple of units on the Saints.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No Marshon Lattimore once again, which would be annoying if it weren’t for the crazy wind. I still like the Saints in this lower-scoring game, as Taysom Hill figures to do well. The sharps are on the Saints, yet you can get a +3.5 line at -116 vig at Bookmaker.

Detroit Lions (7-7) at Carolina Panthers (5-9)
Line: Lions by 2.5. Total: 43.5.
Saturday, Dec. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We’ve gotten hate mail from Matt Gregory. Now, it’s time to give him a taste of his own medicine:



Imagine having a 4-year-old niece who knows more about football than you. Ouch.

Anyway, here’s something from Twitter:



I won those picks, by the way.

2 Let’s get to a new hate mailer, Richard Benjamin. He sent me this after Minnesota’s comeback versus the Colts:



I heard back from Richard:



I could literally feel Richard’s blood boiling after I sent that e-mail. He’s so proud of his team beating a backfield of Matt Ryan and Zack Moss that was coached by Jeff Saturday. How sad.

Here’s Richard’s reply:





I suspect Richard will be crying in his sleep for many nights once he realizes I am correct.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions play on an elite level on this side of the ball when in a dome, but they’re not as good outdoors, especially when battling a tough defense. Both the Patriots and Jets have been able to limit their offense this season. I know they beat the Jets by scoring 20 last week, but remember that seven points came on a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, while another seven was the result of a fluky 51-yard touchdown by Brock Wright in the final minutes of regulation.

The Lions will have another tough test where they have to battle a stellar defense. The Panthers generate good pressure on the quarterback and cover well, ranking third in adjusted pass defense EPA. This is one reason Jared Goff will struggle, and I’ll get to another in the recap section.

However, all hope isn’t lost for the Lions’ offense. They’ll have some success moving the chains on the ground via their running backs. The Panthers don’t defend the run well, as we saw last week when they were trampled by Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Contrary to the Panthers, the Lions have an elite run defense. The overall metrics don’t show it, but Detroit has clamped down on all of the running backs they’ve battled since their bye. They’ve shut down the likes of Aaron Jones, Saquon Barkley, Dalvin Cook, and Raheem Mostert.

Stopping the running game is crucial in this matchup because the Panthers lean on it so heavily. It’s ironic that they are doing so because they traded Christian McCaffrey, but D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard have enjoyed strong performances this year. I don’t expect them to do so this Sunday.

The Panthers, however, will be able to move the chains aerially. The Lions have problems defending passing attacks because of shoddy cornerback and linebacker play. They’re also mediocre when it comes to generating pressure, which must be music to Sam Darnold’s ears because Darnold is completing only 43 percent of his passes when pressured this year. His completion rate is 66.7 when kept clean!

RECAP: I’ve been on Detroit all year, but I have some concerns in this game. First, the Lions have crushed teams with bad defenses during their recent success streak, but aside from the Jets, this is the highest-ranked defense the Lions will have faced since battling Dallas in Week 7, and Detroit scored just six points in that game (13 if Jamaal Williams doesn’t fumble at the goal line.) The Lions have gone against the Packers, Bears, Giants, Bills, Jaguars, and Vikings. Here is where they rank per adjusted defensive EPA: 31, 30, 28, 22, 30, and 23. None of those teams have a top-20 defense, according to adjusted EPA. The Panthers are seventh in that category. The Jets are sixth, but I excluded them because the Lions scored on a blocked punt and a fluky 51-yard tight end reception.

Second, Goff historically performs poorly in cold-weather games. He is 5-9 against the spread in cold or rainy games in his career, and his teams have scored 17 points or fewer in eight of those 14 contests. He won last week, but again, there were other reasons for that. It’s still early, but it’s projected to be 28 degrees in Carolina. Goff should struggle as a result.

I want to bet the Panthers heavily, but the bummer is that the sharps already did that at +3. They brought the line down to +2.5, so we’re no longer getting the key number of three with Carolina. I still like the Panthers, but not as much as I did at +3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There are some +3 -120s available, including at DraftKings. Perhaps we’ll get a better +3 line later in the week.

FRIDAY NOTES: I guess I should have taken those +3 -120s because they’re no longer available. The sharps are on the Panthers at +3. My unit count will depend on whether or not I get a viable +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I can’t believe it, but the Panthers are +3 -105 at BetUS. I don’t understand why they have this spread posted. The sharps have a lean toward the Panthers, but nothing crazy.

Cincinnati Bengals (10-4) at New England Patriots (7-7)
Line: Bengals by 3. Total: 41.
Saturday, Dec. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: One of the most misleading scores of the year, not involving the Vikings, of course, was last week’s Cincinnati victory over the Buccaneers. The Bengals prevailed, 34-23, but they had no business scoring 34 points. They were outgained 396-237, and they averaged 1.9 fewer yards per play. They got to 34 because they transformed five Tampa Bay turnovers into three touchdowns and a field goal.

Aside from those short drives, Joe Burrow struggled with Tampa’s pressure, and he’ll face the same difficulty in this matchup. The Patriots have the NFL’s No. 2 pressure rate and don’t blitz at a top-10 rate. This is crucial against Burrow, who is so tremendous against the blitz that he’s the least-blitzed quarterback in the NFL.

Burrow won’t be able to lean on his rushing attack to bail him out either. There aren’t many teams better than the Patriots when it comes to stopping the run. New England ranks fourth in that regard in terms of adjusted EPA.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: While the Bengals couldn’t score last week when they weren’t granted free trips into the red zone, they had issues stopping the Buccaneers before the turnover spree began. Tom Brady whipped the ball up and down the field quite easily, and it appeared as though the Buccaneers were well on their way to demolishing Cincinnati.

The problem for the Bengals was that they were missing their starting pass rushers and No. 1 cornerback. Already down Trey Hendrickson, they lost Sam Hubbard as well, so they couldn’t get any pressure on Brady. They’ll have similar difficulty against Mac Jones, whose performance is night and day when seeing pressure and being kept clean. I’ve stopped being lazy, so take a look:



Meanwhile, the Patriots may not be able to get something out of Rhamondre Stevenson. The Bengals have been much better against the run since getting back their two defensive tackles. They even restricted Derrick Henry to just 38 rushing yards.

RECAP: You have to wonder about Cincinnati’s focus in this game. The Bengals are coming off a 17-point comeback versus Tom Brady, and after this contest, they have to battle the Bills and Ravens. They have to be looking ahead to those battles because they could decide the division and even the No. 1 seed.

I doubt the lowly Patriots are on the Bengals’ radar, but motivation alone will not entice me to bet a side. There are other things to consider, including the health of the Bengals. They could be down both of their primary edge rushers, as well as their No. 1 cornerback in this game, so they’ll have trouble stopping the pass. Also, stacked injuries tend to be problematic, and we saw this on Sunday before the Buccaneers imploded with five consecutive turnovers. Had the Buccaneers won – and they deserved to, given the yardage disparity, this line would not have moved from the advance line of -3 to -3.5.

Perhaps the Patriots will spoil a potential victory by giving the ball away on five consecutive drives as well, but I doubt it. I like their chances of keeping this game close, and I love getting four key numbers with them, especially considering Cincinnati’s health problems.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money on the Patriots has dropped this line down to +3. I’m happy to see the pros on New England with me, but upset that I didn’t lock in the +3.5.

FRIDAY NOTES: As with the other Ohio team, the Bengals aren’t as banged up as I thought they would be. Trey Hendrickson had a full practice Thursday, and he’s not even on the injury report, so he appears to be 100 percent. Mike Hilton will also be back from his Week 15 absence. I still like the Patriots, but I won’t be betting them as heavily.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps love the Patriots, but then again, they loved them versus the Bills as well, and we saw what happened. Still, I think they’re on the right side. The best line is +3 -105 at BetUS.

Buffalo Bills (11-3) at Chicago Bears (3-11)
Line: Bills by 8.5. Total: 40.5.
Saturday, Dec. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: There’s a chance the Bills could score on every single possession in this game. They obviously have an explosive offense, and they’re going to battle a defense ranked near the bottom of every single category.

The Bears are worse against the pass than the run. They’re 31st when it comes to defending aerial attacks. This is the byproduct of poor secondary play and a lackluster pass rush that is third-worst when it comes to pressure rate. It’s safe to say that Josh Allen will have a great performance.

The Bills may not need to throw very much because they will have success running the ball. The Bears also have a bottom-10 rush defense, so Devin Singletary and James Cook will rip off big chunks at a time.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears were losing by double digits last week despite getting some turnovers from Jalen Hurts in the opening half. In fact, Justin Fields needed a late touchdown to get a back-door cover despite being a massive underdog.

It’s likely that Fields will be in a similar position this week, and if he is, he’ll have an easier time converting points in garbage time. The Bills once had the NFL’s top pressure rate, but that has no longer been the case in the wake of Von Miller’s injury. Fields will still see plenty of heat in the pocket, however, because he’s protected so poorly. That said, he’ll be able to pick up tons of rushing yardage, as usual.

The Bears will also be able to keep David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert going on the ground. The Bills aren’t great versus the run, as we saw Saturday night when Raheem Mostert constantly gashed them. While the Bears don’t pass protect well, their line at least thrives when run blocking, so I like Montgomery and Herbert’s chances of performing well, at least on the rare occasions in which this game is close.

RECAP: I mentioned in the previous picks write-up that I thought the Bengals would be looking ahead to battling the Bills and Ravens. The Bills are in a similar situation. They obviously have Cincinnati next week, but they also have to go up against the rival Patriots after that. Thus, the Bills could deem this to be their final “easy” game of the year and take it for granted.

We just saw the Eagles take their game against Chicago for granted and fail to cover the spread at the very end. Yet, the Eagles were nearly completely healthy. The Bills are not. They’re missing some offensive linemen and defensive players. If they had most of their players, I would not have any issues laying the nine with them, but an injury-ravaged team like Buffalo shouldn’t be favored by this many points, even against a terrible opponent like Chicago.

Besides, the Bears will always be live for a back-door cover as long as Fields is healthy. Fields was knocked out versus the Eagles, but quickly returned to score a touchdown at the end. He’ll be able to scramble around tired legs and run into the end zone if need be, so I’m comfortable getting nearly double digits with Chicago. That said, this is a lopsided matchup, and if the Bills are focused for some reason, they could win very easily.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Mitch Morse in practice yet, but Ryan Bates was full on Wednesday. The Bears, conversely, had five starters out of practice on Wednesday, including Cody Whitehair and Teven Jenkins.

FRIDAY NOTES: Ed Oliver may miss this game in addition to Mitch Morse, but Ryan Bates will at least be back. The Bears will be without Whitehair and Jenkins, as well as Kindle Vildor. None of this is enough to make me wager on either side.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s sharp action on the Bears, but not a lot of it. I’m not betting this game, but if you want to, the best line is +8.5 at BetMGM.

Houston Texans (1-12-1) at Tennessee Titans (7-7)
Line: Titans by 3. Total: 34.5.
Saturday, Dec. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Titans.

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TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Texans cannot stop Derrick Henry. In fact, Henry is so dominant against the Texans, he tied an NFL record against them in the initial matchup earlier this season. Henry had his sixth 200-yard rushing performance of his career, which tied a record for most 200-yard games on the ground in NFL history. Hilariously, four of these six games have come against Houston.

Nothing has changed since that matchup, so it’s reasonable to expect another tremendous performance from Henry. Perhaps he won’t get to 200 rushing yards again, but Henry will still be able to carry his team to victory.

Henry being able to run wild will be vital to the Titans’ chances of winning this game and keeping their playoff hopes alive. Ryan Tannehill isn’t 100 percent because of a bum ankle, and he hasn’t been able to throw to his No. 1 receiver since Treylon Burks suffered a nasty concussion against the Eagles. The Texans aren’t very good at stopping the pass, but it’s not like they’ll have a challenging matchup if Burks is out again.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The ability of the Texans to move the chains successfully is easy to predict. It’s just a simple if-then statement. If the Texans can run well, then they’ll have a functional offense. Else, they’ll struggle to move the ball completely. We’ve seen this dynamic in recent results. Houston was demolished against teams with strong rush defenses like the Redskins and Dolphins, but they’ve found success against Dallas and Kansas City defenses that can’t stop the run.

The Titans can certainly stop the run. They have a top-10 ground defense, so Royce Freeman and Dare Ogunbowale won’t be able to accomplish much when given the football.

This obviously bodes poorly for Davis Mills, who won’t be able to operate in obvious passing downs. Mills will see plenty of pressure in the pocket from the same pass rush that rattled Justin Herbert last week, which could lead to turnovers.

RECAP: I compared the Texans to a con artist last week. Con artists are absolutely terrible people, as they’ll gain your confidence and then leave you holding the bag. Awful teams like the Texans do the same thing. They’ve gained everyone’s confidence with close games against the Cowboys and Chiefs. People now think the Texans can pull upsets all the time, but these poor souls are going to lose a lot of money betting on them. Just think back to last year when the Jaguars beat the Bills. Some probably thought, “Oh, Jacksonville isn’t so bad. They beat Buffalo!” The Jaguars covered the spread the following week, but after that, they were 1-7 against the spread to close out the year!

The Texans gained everyone’s confidence by nearly defeating the Cowboys and Chiefs. Surely, they can beat the Titans! Except, Tennessee has Henry, who has debacled the Texans at every opportunity. The Titans also have a strong run defense to put the clamps on anything Houston tries on the ground.

I have two worries about betting the Titans, though I plan on doing so anyway. First, Mike Vrabel historically is poor as a big favorite, though he crushed a divisional rival at home around this time last year, beating Jacksonville 20-0 as an 8.5-point favorite. Second, there’s a possibility of a back-door cover, though the likelihood of that occurring will decrease if the Titans get some players back from injury, so we’ll have to see what the practice reports look like.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: When I did the podcast with Jacob this week, we saw this line plummet from -7 to -5, and we speculated that someone knew something about Ryan Tannehill. We were right, as Tannehill could be ruled out for the year. But it’s not just Tannehill. Aside from him, Nate Davis, Ben Jones, Kristian Fulton, Jeffery Simmons, and Amani Hooker all missed practice Wednesday. I like betting good or well-coached teams missing their starting quarterback, but the Titans might just be too banged up to function well. Still, I like them to cover the -3 against the lowly Texans.

FRIDAY NOTES: Oh man. When I saw that this line dropped to -3 as a result of Ryan Tannehill being ruled out, I wanted to bet the Titans. But then I looked at the injury report. The Titans will be missing about half their roster, including Nate Davis, Ben Jones, Kristian Fulton, and potentially two other offensive linemen and some defensive backs. I won’t be betting the Titans as a result.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The good news for the Titans is that their questionable offensive linemen will play, while Treylon Burks and Denico Autry will be back from injury. The bad news is that Amani Hooker has been ruled out. I’d say this is a net positive for the Titans, though the sharps are betting the Texans heavily. The best Tennessee line is -3 -120 at Bovada and BetUS.

Seattle Seahawks (7-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-3)
Line: Chiefs by 10. Total: 50.
Saturday, Dec. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: When will the Chiefs put a full game together? It’s been a long time since they’ve done so. You have to go all the way back to October when they crushed the 49ers. Kansas City has put together full games just twice all year, and they should have been able to accomplish this a third time last week versus Houston’s injury-ravaged defense. Instead, the Chiefs had to gut out a victory in overtime because of numerous, sloppy mistakes they made throughout the afternoon.

The Chiefs have an easier matchup in this game, as Seattle’s defense is miserable in every regard. In fact, the Seahawks have the bottom-ranked defense according to adjusted EPA. They struggle in every regard, especially when it comes to stopping the run. This usually isn’t Kansas City’s specialty, but Jerrick McKinnon has been hot lately, picking up where he left off during the team’s playoff run last year. McKinnon should have a big game against Seattle’s woeful front seven.

The Seahawks also fail to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They have the 26th ranked EPA pass defense because they struggle as a byproduct of their lack of consistent pressure. Patrick Mahomes has a 76.6-percent completion rate and an 8.7 YPA when kept clean in the pocket, so he’s going to have a huge performance.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks had a winning record for most of the year because of their strength, which is the passing game. Geno Smith made great strides this year, thanks in part to his two terrific receivers. Unfortunately for Smith, he’ll have to operate without Tyler Lockett moving forward after Lockett suffered an injury against the 49ers last Thursday.

There’s still a chance the Seahawks move the chains well in this game. I have two reasons for saying this. First, the Chiefs blitz frequently, and Smith is solid against the blitz. When seeing extra pass rushers, Smith is completing 69 percent of his passes with a decent 7.2 YPA. Perhaps these numbers will regress without Lockett, but I still like Smith’s chances.

Second, the Seahawks will have plenty of success running the ball, provided they’re not getting blown out. The Seahawks couldn’t establish Kenneth Walker last week because the 49ers have the best run defense in the NFL. The Chiefs, conversely, are weak to the run. They had issues with Royce Freeman last week, for crying out loud.

RECAP: I’ve been fading both of these teams rather aggressively lately. The Chiefs have been underwhelming this year because they have seldom been able to put together strong performances in both halves. They have just two big wins, and those were against the pedestrian Buccaneers and injury-ravaged 49ers. Otherwise, they’ve barely beaten bad or mediocre teams like the Texans, Broncos, Malik Willis-led Titans, and Raiders.

I’d love to take the Seahawks for that reason, but I hate Seattle even more. In fact, I hate them so much that I’m going to bet the Chiefs. The Seahawks are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL, and now they won’t have Lockett. Their defense is terrible and doesn’t stand a chance against the Chiefs, who figure to demolish Seattle.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Kenneth Walker hasn’t practiced yet, so the Seahawks may not be able to take advantage of the Chiefs’ greatest weakness. This might be why the sharps pushed this line to -10. I love the Chiefs, and I’m bumping this line to four units.

FRIDAY NOTES: We know Tyler Lockett is out, but Kenneth Walker was DNP all week, while Noah Fant was DNP-DNP-limited and Marquise Goodwin missed practice Thursday. Furthermore, star safety Ryan Neal is out as well. I already thought the Seahawks sucked, but now, they’re going to be even worse.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps usually bet underdogs, but this is one instance where they’re on the favorite. I love the Chiefs. The best line is the standard -10 -110 at Bovada and BetMGM.

Atlanta Falcons (5-9) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
Line: Ravens by 6.5. Total: 35.5.
Saturday, Dec. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

Video of the Week: One thing I did in the first couple of months after my son was born was play lots of Sodoku. I did this because I held him in my arms as he was asleep, and I couldn’t do anything else but enter in digits with one hand. I got quite good at it, and I even tried some crazy puzzles, like this one, which has no given numbers:



It took me several days to figure this one out – i.e. numerous Conrad naps – but I finally did so. You can try it yourself via a link in the description.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: All signs point to Lamar Jackson returning this week, and it couldn’t come at a better time. The Ravens sputtered without Jackson last week, losing in embarrassing fashion to the Browns last week by scoring only three points against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Jackson will likely be back in a very favorable matchup, and he’ll also have Ronnie Stanley shielding his blind side, which was not the case when he was previously on the field. Stanley will make his already-pristine pass protection even better, as Atlanta has the worst pressure rate in the NFL, and it isn’t even close. Jackson will have all day to locate his weapons.

Jackson will also have success on the ground along with his running backs. Jackson will also have J.K. Dobbins by his side, and Dobbins will trample through Atlanta’s poor run defense. The Falcons are better versus the rush than the pass, but only by default. They are 23rd in run defense EPA.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Desmond Ridder’s NFL debut didn’t go so well. And I’m being kind by wording it that way. Ridder failed to complete more than half of his passes, and he didn’t exceed 100 passing yards against the Saints. He finished 13-of-26 for 97 yards, and this occurred against one of the league’s worst pass defenses. Imagine how he’ll fare versus tougher defenses!

The Ravens certainly have a tougher defense. They have the personnel to rattle Ridder in the pocket, while their talented defensive backs with smother Drake London and the rest of Atlanta’s pedestrian receiving corps.

Of course, Atlanta will try to keep the ball out of Ridder’s hands. The Falcons rely so heavily on the run that they pounded Tyler Allgeier into the Saints last week, even when trailing by double digits. Doing so will not work versus the Ravens, who have the NFL’s No. 2 adjusted EPA run defense.

RECAP: Remember when the Falcons began the year with a 6-0 spread record? Everyone loved them, yet they’ve been a huge money pit ever since. They’re 1-5-2 against the spread in their previous eight games, and they’ve been a fixture in our NFL Overrated List for much of the season. They’re still there because people still don’t recognize the Falcons as being one of the worst teams in the NFL. Otherwise, they’d be larger underdogs in this game.

Compare this game to Ravens-Panthers. Baltimore was a 13-point favorite in that game, so why is this line only -7.5, when the Panthers are better than the Falcons? I can cite the metrics – Carolina is 20 spots ahead of Atlanta in net EPA – but I can just point to the fact that the Panthers would have swept the Falcons had D.J. Moore not removed his helmet.

The Falcons are 5-9 right now, but they’d be 3-11 or worse if they had a more difficult schedule. Excluding the 49ers and Chargers because both teams were dealing with countless injuries, the only teams Atlanta has faced this year that currently have a winning record are the Bengals and Redskins. The Falcons lost those games by 18 and six, respectively. The Ravens, with Jackson, are closer to the Bengals than Redskins – they beat Cincinnati, after all – so I see this as being another blowout. It sucks we’re not getting -7 instead of -7.5, but there’s a reason for that.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Lamar Jackson has yet to practice. This line will obviously drop if he’s ruled out, but I’m not sure how far the spread will fall.

FRIDAY NOTES: Ugh! Lamar Jackson is out. Not only that, but Calais Campbell and Marcus Peters will be sidelined as well. Oh, and Tyler Huntley was limited in practice with a shoulder injury. I’m going to stick with the Ravens, but I won’t be betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game, and I don’t blame them, given Baltimore’s dubious quarterback situation. I would have loved the Ravens if Lamar Jackson were available, but he’s not.