NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 16, 2022

Washington Redskins (7-6-1) at San Francisco 49ers (10-4)
Line: 49ers by 6.5. Total: 37.5.
Saturday, Dec. 24, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



Oh, and my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers haven’t lost yet with Brock Purdy at the helm, and there’s growing speculation that he would maintain the starting job in the event that Jimmy Garoppolo returns from injury. In fact, I’ve seen some people even asking what the 49ers will do with Trey Lance!

I think it’s a bit premature to declare that Purdy will be the 49ers’ franchise quarterback, but he would take a step forward in cementing that role with a strong performance against the Redskins. I say that because his two starts have come against defenses ranked 24th and 32nd in adjusted EPA. Let’s see how he fares against the Redskins, who are second. Washington has a terrific pass rush that could potentially rattle Purdy, forcing him into turnovers.

Much will be asked of Purdy in this game because the running game won’t be as effective as it was versus Seattle’s last-ranked ground defense. The Redskins are stout against the run, though I still expect Christian McCaffrey to have some big gains as a receiver out of the backfield.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins won’t have any sort of success running the ball either. No team is better at shutting down opposing running backs than the 49ers. Brian Robinson Jr. gashed the Giants last week, but he’ll be extremely limited this Saturday.

Like the Redskins, the 49ers have an elite pass rush. Taylor Heinicke, who will have to operate in unfavorable situations because of an ineffective ground attack, will see plenty of pressure. Heinicke has been fortunate not to self-destruct with a barrage of turnovers this year, but that could happen in this game.

The one thing that could save Heinicke is the receiving corps. Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and the emerging Jahan Dotson are an excellent trio, and they have favorable matchups against the San Francisco cornerbacks.

RECAP: I love betting great teams with backup quarterbacks, but the fun stops when the spread finally catches up to what it should be. Given the uncertainty with Purdy, this line probably would have been -4.5 or so a couple of weeks ago. Now, the 49ers are favored by a touchdown, which seems about right.

It’s difficult to back a reserve quarterback without getting any key number. The best thing we’re receiving is a push with the seven, so that’s very unappealing.

I like the Redskins here, as their defense should be able to keep them in this game. I also like buying them low. They lost to the Giants, but outgained them in total yardage and yards per play. A case can be made that the Redskins are underrated right now.

I also have to wonder about the 49ers’ motivation. They’re coming off wins against Tom Brady and their arch rival, so will they bring their “A” game against the Redskins? And even if they do, Kyle Shanahan doesn’t have the best track record as a big favorite. I’m picking the Redskins to cover, but I’m not sure if I’m going to bet them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money has come in on the Redskins. I don’t know why, but I’m trying to find out.

FRIDAY NOTES: I don’t know why sharp money has come in on the Redskins, but the line has dropped to +6.5. I thought we’d see something on the injury report, but the most I could find was that Brock Purdy was limited all week.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: As mentioned earlier, the sharps are on the Redskins. I don’t know if I can get there though.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Chase Young will play for the first time this year. The sharps continue to bet the Redskins, as some books have moved this line to +6. You can still get +6.5 in some places, including Bovada.

Philadelphia Eagles (13-1) at Dallas Cowboys (10-4)
Line: Cowboys by 4.5. Total: 48.
Saturday, Dec. 24, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: We received big news Monday, which is that Jalen Hurts has a shoulder injury and will likely miss this game as a result. Gardner Minshew will get the nod instead.

Call me crazy, but I think the Eagles will have plenty of success moving the chains with Minshew under center. Minshew isn’t a great quarterback by any means, but he’s a solid backup and can throw well against teams that struggle against the pass. The Cowboys are fourth in aerial defense, but that is predicated on their ability to generate pressure on the quarterback. They can do so easily versus most teams, but the Eagles have an elite offensive line. We already saw them shield Hurts well in the first meeting, at least until Lane Johnson suffered an injury in the middle of the game. Everything changed after that, but Hurts was kept clean beforehand.

The Cowboys tend to struggle against the run, so Miles Sanders figures to have a rebound performance. Sanders didn’t even get a chance to perform last week, rushing just once in the first 28 minutes of the Chicago game. Perhaps the Eagles were saving him for this matchup.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Dak Prescott needs everything to be perfect around him, so if there are injuries, or if one aspect of the offense isn’t functioning at all, Prescott tends to struggle.

It’s unlikely that everything will function well around Prescott in this game because the Eagles have an elite defense. Their two outside cornerbacks clamp down on everyone not named Terry McLaurin. They’ve erased the likes of Justin Jefferson, so CeeDee Lamb isn’t expected to have a strong performance. If anyone thrives, it could be Dalton Schultz, as the Eagles allow all the production over the middle of the field.

The Cowboys won’t have a big rushing performance that Prescott would like either. This may have not been something I would have written a few weeks ago, but the Eagles have clamped down on the run ever since Jordan Davis returned from injury. They’ve stopped Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley, so they’ll be able to restrict Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, though Pollard can always turn any play into a big gain.

RECAP: I love betting great teams playing their backup quarterbacks. All of the players tend to try harder because they know they need to give 110 percent for their team to succeed. This dynamic has worked extremely well over the years. Just consider the 49ers, who are 2-0 with Brock Purdy thus far. Heck, look at the Eagles in 2017, who won the Super Bowl with Nick Foles.

Minshew is a good backup and can lead the team to victory. At the very least, this should be a close game. The Eagles have a much better roster than the Cowboys. Outside of quarterback at the moment, as well as edge rusher, where is Dallas better than Philadelphia?

Furthermore, consider what the Cowboys have done since their bye. Excluding a victory over the extremely overrated Vikings, they’ve lost to the Packers; they were down to the Giants at halftime on Thanksgiving; they led just 21-19 against the Colts entering the fourth quarter before some crazy turnovers transpired; they nearly lost to the Texans; and they suffered a defeat to the Jaguars in overtime.

This spread is way too high. Even with the quarterback change, this line should be Dallas -2.5 or so. A spread of +5.5 is absurd, so I’ll gladly bet the Eagles heavily. I’m even considering this my December NFL Pick of the Month, but I’d like to see an injury report first.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Micah Parsons has yet to practice because of an illness, but I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t play. The sharps bet the Eagles at +6 once the line rose to that level in the wake of the Jalen Hurts announcement.

FRIDAY NOTES: It’s official that Jalen Hurts is out. When that announcement was made, the line rose to +5.5, but then the sharps brought the spread down again.

FRIDAY NOTES II: I’m going to make this my December NFL Pick of the Month. I took a peak at the Week 17 slate and didn’t see anything that popped out to me. Backup quarterbacks on good or well-coached teams are 9-4 against the spread this year, and some of those losses were fluky results (i.e. the Dolphins losing to the Vikings despite outgaining them by 224 yards). Gardner Minshew is one of the better backups in the NFL anyway. Good luck if you’re betting this with me!

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have dragged this line down to +4 in most sportsbooks, though you can get +4.5 at BetUS.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Some sharp books have dropped this line to +3.5, including Bookmaker. Most sportsbooks still have +4 posted. I should have bet the +4.5, but four isn’t a major key number.

Las Vegas Raiders (6-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-8)
Line: Steelers by 2. Total: 38.
Saturday, Dec. 24, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: It’s not clear yet who will be starting at quarterback for the Steelers, but Kenny Pickett seemed close to clearing concussion protocol last week. I’ll be surprised if he’s not available, which is obviously good news for Pittsburgh, despite the fact that the Steelers pulled the upset in Carolina last week.

There’s not a huge difference between Pickett and Trubisky at this stage of the rookie’s career, but Pickett won’t self-destruct like Trubisky has done recently. Pickett has a nice matchup against a Raider secondary that struggles to cover outside receivers. Pat Freiermuth also projects well over the middle of the field.

The Steelers, of course, would love to ceaselessly pound the ball like they did versus the Panthers. Considering that Rhamondre Stevenson ripped off 172 rushing yards last week, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren have a chance to dominate this game. The Raiders are 16th in adjusted rush defense EPA, so I’m not sure why they were incapable of putting the clamps on Stevenson.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders tend to have problems on their offensive line, so it shouldn’t surprise you to learn that they don’t have a good record against teams with top-15 pressure rates. They’re 1-3 in these games, losing to the Cardinals, Titans, and Jaguars. Their one win? Last week’s Stanford Band Fail victory over the Patriots.

The Steelers have one of the NFL’s best pass rushes with T.J. Watt on the field. Remarkably, they sport a top-six pass defense with Watt, yet were 30th versus the pass without him. This is obviously crucial in this game, given how much offensive firepower Derek Carr has at his disposal now that Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow are back from injury.

The Raiders will obviously attempt to establish Josh Jacobs, but this will be easier said than done. The Steelers have the seventh-ranked ground defense, and they just put the clamps on Carolina’s strong running game. Stuffing Jacobs will be a tougher challenge, but Pittsburgh will be able to limit him.

RECAP: If you’ve been reading this Web site prior to this current visit, you know where I’m going with this selection. I’m on the Steelers for one of my top plays of the week.

I’ve been on the Steelers every week ever since Watt returned from injury, with the sole exception being the Baltimore game. The Steelers are 5-2 with Watt on the field, with their losses being to the Ravens and Bengals, two top-10 teams. The Raiders certainly are not a top-10 team. They’re average, but Pittsburgh is the superior squad as long as Watt is playing, and it should be favored by at least three as a result.

I love this matchup for the Steelers, as the Raiders will struggle to block them, given that they’re 1-3 against those top-15 pass rush teams. Besides, the most likely result of this game is Pittsburgh winning by three, which we obviously get by laying the -2.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m surprised by how much the public likes the Raiders. I don’t get it. Have they forgotten how they lost to the Rams? The Raiders easily could have lost to New England as well.

FRIDAY NOTES: I still love the Steelers. Diontae Johnson might be out, but that doesn’t really matter to me because Kenny Pickett prefers throwing to other players instead.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’ve been asked if the Steelers will have an emotional reaction to Franco Harris. I don’t think so because half the players, sadly, probably have never even heard of him.

FINAL THOUGHTS: F**k you, Miles Sanders. Bouncing back from that bad beat will be tough, but I still love the Steelers. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is -2.5 -106 at FanDuel.

Green Bay Packers (6-8) at Miami Dolphins (8-6)
Line: Dolphins by 3.5. Total: 49.5.
Sunday, Dec. 25, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers have been extremely disappointing on this side of the ball for the entire season, but things seemed to change Monday night. The team got off to a rocky start when they stalled in the red zone and then Aaron Rodgers threw an interception, but it caught fire in the second half and easily moved the chains.

This was done against a beleaguered Rams defense, but it’s not like Miami stops the pass very well. The Dolphins’ aerial defense was expected to improve with Bradley Chubb added via trade, but Chubb hasn’t been a very big factor. He was invisible against the Bills, as Josh Allen had no resistance when throwing into the Miami secondary. If the Dolphins can’t produce pressure on Rodgers, he’ll be able to carve through Miami’s poor secondary.

The Dolphins are better against the run than the pass, so the Packers won’t be able to trample through the defensive front like they did versus the Rams on Monday night. Still, Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon will have some success, especially with the former being used as a receiver out of the backfield.

MIAMI OFFENSE: If I’m right about the Packers being able to move the chains, this game will likely be a shootout because the Dolphins figure to score early and often in this matchup.

The Packers have a weak defense ranked 31st in adjusted EPA. They struggle against both the run and the pass, and they have to blitz often because they don’t get to the quarterback often otherwise. Thus, it’s important to note how the opposing quarterback fares against the blitz. Tua Tagovailoa happens to be quite excellent against it. He has pristine numbers versus the blitz this year, completing 64 percent of his passes on a 9.1 YPA with six touchdowns and no interceptions. He’ll be able to torch Green Bay’s secondary by heavily targeting Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, per usual.

The only way Tagovailoa doesn’t torch the Packers is if the Dolphins choose to run all over the Packers. Green Bay has the worst rush defense EPA in the NFL, so Raheem Mostert, who was explosive versus the Bills last week, figures to post excellent numbers. That is, of course, if Jeff Wilson Jr. doesn’t take too many carries away from him.

RECAP: I would have gone with the Dolphins if this matchup had occurred a month ago, but the Packers aren’t the same dreadful team we saw earlier in the season. They’ve been playing better lately as a result of Rodgers finally being over his thumb injury that plagued him for numerous weeks.

Considering that Rodgers is now fully healthy and is battling a weak pass defense, I love getting more than a field goal with the Packers. Considering the state of Miami’s defense, it seems that the most likely result of this game is the Dolphins winning by three, which we get with the Green Bay +4.5 line.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps jumped on the Packers, and I wonder if it’s because of Terron Armstead’s status. He missed Wednesday’s practice with toe, pec and knee injuries. Surely one of them could be bad enough to keep him out of this game.

FRIDAY NOTES: It’s a shame that David Bakhtiari is out, while Terron Armstead was limited on Friday. I still like the Packers quite a bit.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have dragged this line down to +3.5, and I can’t find a +4 -110 line anywhere. The best I see is +4 -115 at BetUS.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps continue to pound the Packers, with most sportsbooks dropping this line to +3.5 -115. You can still get +3.5 -110 at BetMGM. I’m bumping this up to four units.

Denver Broncos (4-10) at Los Angeles Rams (4-10)
Line: Broncos by 3. Total: 36.5.
Sunday, Dec. 25, 4:30 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

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DENVER OFFENSE: We have no idea who’s starting at quarterback for a team playing in each of these final two Christmas games. We’ll get to the Arizona situation in the next preview, but the concern here is with Russell Wilson, who suffered a severe concussion against the Chiefs nearly a week-and-a-half ago. There’s a chance Wilson could return for this contest, but the look from his eyes seemed like he thought he was on another planet. This could be a multi-week absence.

If Wilson plays, he’ll do well against the Rams. Los Angeles’ pass defense has been terrible this year because it hasn’t been able to generate pressure on the quarterback. In fact, the only team that gets to the quarterback less often than the Rams are the Falcons. And even when Los Angeles gets into the backfield, Wilson will be able to evade pressure and find his talented receivers for big gains.

If, however, Wilson doesn’t start, Denver’s offense won’t be nearly as efficient with Brett Rypien. That said, Rypien had a decent performance against the Cardinals, so Denver could at least have some offensive success. Latavius Murray will have some decent gains on the ground if Aaron Donald is out again.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Baker Mayfield had an incredible comeback against the Raiders, but didn’t have the same luck the following week at Green Bay. Mayfield had some nice moments when he converted a pair of third-and-15 plays to Van Jefferson, but he made plenty of mistakes. He didn’t see open receivers, and he was very fortunate to avoid turnovers.

The thing is, Mayfield hasn’t even battled a tough defense yet as quarterback of the Rams. He has gone against the Raiders and Packers, both of whom rank near the bottom of pass defense. The Broncos, conversely, are in the top 10 of that category. Mayfield would have a chance with better offensive line play, but Los Angeles’ blocking unit has been a disaster this year. It didn’t help that center Brian Allen was knocked out with an injury in the early stages of the Monday night game.

The Broncos are better against the pass than the run, but I don’t think the Rams can exploit their defensive liability. Los Angeles has a pedestrian running game, as Cam Akers and Kyren Williams often struggle to generate anything on the ground.

RECAP: It’s tough to make a prediction at the moment because we don’t know Wilson’s status. If Wilson plays, I’d lean toward the Broncos, but the spread would rise as a result. If Wilson sits, I’ll probably be on the Rams because I don’t think Rypien deserves to be a road favorite, even against a team as terrible as the Rams.

I’m going to pencil in the Rams for now, but I may change my mind if Wilson clears concussion protocol. Check back later to see my updates!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Russell Wilson isn’t even on the practice report, so I’m going to switch to Denver. I may end up betting this game, but I’m not quite sure yet.

FRIDAY NOTES: The sharps are betting the Rams for some reason. I can’t figure out why because Brian Allen is out again. Perhaps it’s just a fade of the Broncos being road favorites. Either way, I am not going to bet this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line is up to -3. I still have zero interest in betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: When it comes down to it, I don’t want to bet a terrible team like the Broncos as a road favorite, but I don’t want to touch the Rams and their injury-ravaged offensive line. The sharps are on the Rams, but I’m not sure why. If you want to bet the Broncos, you can get -3 -108 at FanDuel. The one bet I will make is a half unit on the under.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8) at Arizona Cardinals (4-10)
Line: Buccaneers by 7.5. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Dec. 25, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

Here’s the Top Stocks to Buy page, where I told you about GameStop two years ago and then AMC. It will be updated once per week, or sooner if there is any emergency news.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: We’re beginning with the Cardinals because it’s unclear who will play quarterback in this game. Kyler Murray is obviously out with his torn ACL, but we don’t know if Colt McCoy will be available. McCoy was knocked out of the Denver game with a concussion, and Arizona had no chance of beating the Broncos with Trace McSorley under center.

McCoy is a viable NFL quarterback, but McSorley is not. Tampa Bay’s defense has improved markedly in recent weeks as some players have returned from injury. The secondary, in particular, is much healthier, and it’ll be able to stymie Arizona’s passing attack if McSorley is under center. Conversely, the Cardinals will be able to have DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown perform well if McCoy can clear concussion protocol.

The Buccaneers have done a good job of stopping the run recently as well, so that doesn’t bode well for James Conner. Tampa Bay has limited Alvin Kamara and Joe Mixon in two of the past three weeks.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: It’s quite amazing how much the Buccaneers regressed during last week’s game against the Bengals. They were out to a 17-0 lead in the third quarter, as Tom Brady was having tremendous success throwing to all of his receivers. Everything changed when the Buccaneers began giving the ball away to the opposition. In fact, they had turnovers on five consecutive drives, with Cincinnati turning the opportunities into three touchdowns and a field goal.

Despite the blown lead, the fact that the Buccaneers had so much success offensively early in the game has to be encouraging, especially for this game. The Cardinals have been dealing with some major injuries at cornerback. They’ve been down so many corners, so Brady should be able to replicate what he accomplished in the first half versus Cincinnati. It’ll help if Zach Allen is absent for another game.

The Buccaneers will have some success on the ground as well, if last week’s Arizona game is any indication. Latavius Murray ran well on the Cardinals, though I wouldn’t expect either Leonard Fournette or Rachaad White to have an overly explosive performance, or anything.

RECAP: We’ll have to see what McCoy’s status is. If he’s available, I’d have interest in the Cardinals as a fade of the Buccaneers, who are not good enough to be favored by more than three points, especially on the road.

Conversely, if McCoy can’t go, I’m going to bet on Tampa Bay. The Cardinals will be an auto fade because they’ll be a terrible team starting an awful quarterback.

Check back later in the week when we have news on McCoy, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Wow. This spread has skyrocketed, going through key numbers with reckless abandon. The Buccaneers are now favored by 7.5, as people don’t expect Colt McCoy to play. I will be on the Buccaneers if McCoy is out, even at this high number.

FRIDAY NOTES: It really sucks that Colt McCoy is out because I’d love to bet the Cardinals. The Buccaneers are missing so many players, so they wouldn’t deserve to be favored by more than a touchdown in normal circumstances. However, I don’t think the Cardinals can be a functional team with Trace McSorley at quarterback.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Jacob Camenker and I had a call Thursday night, and we discovered that this game will be absolutely meaningless for the Buccaneers if the Saints and Falcons both lose, and the Panthers win. In that scenario, the division will come down to next week’s Panthers-Buccaneers matchup. Nothing else will matter.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It turns out this game means something, but only because the Saints beat the Browns. Thus, I’ll be on the Buccaneers because I don’t think the Cardinals can be a functional football team with Trace McSorley. I’d love Arizona if Colt McCoy were playing, but he’s out. The sharps bet the Buccaneers much earlier in the week when the line was closer to -4, but they haven’t touched Tampa Bay since. The best line is -7.5 -105 at FanDuel.

Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) at Indianapolis Colts (4-9-1)
Line: Chargers by 3.5. Total: 45.5.
Monday, Dec. 26, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Indiana, where tonight, the San Diego Chargers take on the Baltimore Colts! Guys, no one cares about this stupid game, and frankly, I don’t know why I’m even here. But I’m going to make the most of it by telling you that I have a BIG ANNOUNCEMENT to make. I said that in all caps to emphasize how BIG OF AN ANNOUNCEMENT it is!

Emmitt: Koy Reilly, the last timed I heard there was an announce, my friend Clevis announcedment that she gonna have a baby, so I gonna guessed that you are pregment and the stork gonna give breath to a baby and he gonna delivery him to you.

Reilly: Emmitt, I just found out that storks are not real last year, so this is a sensitive subject for me, and no, I’m not pregnant. How can I be pregnant when I’m scared to talk to girls, I mean not allowed to talk to girls because I’m so young!? I’m only 65! Guys, does anyone else know what my BIG ANNOUNCEMENT is!?

Tollefson: You’ve finally done it, Kevin. You’re going to join my female slave trading empire. OK, here’s what you’re going to need to begin. You’ll need a cellar to store your women, as well as restraints for them. Anything will work. Chains, handcuffs, you make the call! Then, you’ll need something to entrap your women. You’ll need to dress up in a fine suit so they can initially trust you, and then you either slip something into their drinks, or take a cloth, and-

Reilly: Tolly, you idiot, I just told you I’m afraid of, I mean, not allowed to talk to women! Maybe one day because I’m a late bloomer, as Mother once told me before she disowned me. Anyone else want to guess? Maybe you, Senator President John Festerman?

John Fetterman: Surprise! When the flower blooms late, it blooms early. The flower blooms. The flower doesn’t bloom. There’s two types of flower. The flower in the ground and the flower that blooms in the bag when you make a birthday cake. I like birthdays. My birthday is August- September- August 55. Surprise!

Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! Guys, it’s time to get to my BIG ANNOUNCEMENT. Here it- wait, what do you want, Schefter?

Adam Schefter: Kevin, I have breaking news, and I just checked with Ozzie Newsome to make sure I could break the news. Before I asked him, I needed to make sure I was free from Covid-19, so I cloned a five-centimeter version of myself, as well as a syringe with Covid vaccine, and then I inserted the microscopic clone of myself into my anus and had him inject my magical insides with the Covid vaccine Then, I pooped the tiny version of myself out, but he drowned in my feces. I told this to Newsome who called me a sick bastard, but gave me permission, and that’s all that matters. Here’s the breaking news, Kevin. Your announcement is that you’re a loser, Kevin. Back to you, Kevin!

Reilly: Shut up, Schefter, both Mother and New Daddy will tell you that I’m not a loser. You’re the loser! Anyway, my BIG ANNOUNCEMENT is this: I’m selling bobblehead versions of myself. There are superhero versions as well! They’re all yours for $99 per bobblehead. I need the money so I can pay rent and not live in trash cans. Please buy my bobbleheads. Commissioner, care to do the honors?

Goodell: Fellow hu-man, as a hu-man myself, I care about honors. You can verify that I am a fellow hu-man, just like you, by asking me what my favorite color is. My favorite color is – randomizing – oyster white. This makes me very hu-man, just like all of you hu-mans.

Reilly: Ah, Mother’s favorite color was also oyster white. I miss her milk. Hey, Mr. President, will you buy one of my bobbleheads?

Joe Biden: Not so fast, you potato-pouring, Travis Etienne-wearing pumpkin patch, I’ll buy one of those gizmos to give to Mrs. Joe Biden when I take her out on a date to the local cinema, I mean the drive-in movie theater, which is the happening place these days. I pick Mrs. Joe Biden up from daycare, and it’s a different girl each time, and I decide which girl will be Mrs. Joe Biden by sniffing her hair. The best smelling hair gets to be Mrs. Joe Biden for the rest of the night, whether she likes it or not. I usually bring flowers or choco-choco chip ice cream so she doesn’t cry too much, but maybe the next Mrs. Joe Biden will like those bubble gizmos you’re selling.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is a total loser, and no girl would ever like to go to the movies with him, not even his real wife, who isn’t a real doctor, by the way, she’s one of those fake doctors, I call them totally fake doctors, which is a great nickname, or at least that’s what everyone tells me, and frankly, I have a BIG ANNOUNCEMENT myself, which is that I’m selling Donald Trump player cards with superhero versions of myself, which is redundant because I am a superhero, some would say the best superhero, and frankly, they’re probably right that I’m the best superhero because no one has saved more lives than me, because I’m the best lifesaver in the world, and no one is even close, especially that total disgrace Kevin Reilly, who is selling loser bobbleheads, which no one likes, by the way, ask anyone, and no one is buying those bobbleheads, and frankly, I’m one of the top buyers of these bobbleheads, and I haven’t bought any!

Wolfley: DONALD, YOU’RE RIGHT, NO ONE IS GOING TO BUY THOSE LOSER BOBBLEHEADS EXCEPT FOR MY TRASH CAN FRIEND WITH FIVE LEGS AND LIPS.

Reilly: You’re not buying my bobbleheads because you’re losers! New Daddy will buy one of my bobbleheads, won’t you New Daddy?

Jay Cutler: Yeah, sure.

Reilly: Really, New Daddy!?

Jay Cutler: Nah.

Reilly: New Daddy! If you don’t buy my bobbleheads, who will!?

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re not having any luck peddling your bobbleheads, Kevin. You’re not alone, Kevin, so don’t worry too much, Kevin. Let’s talk about other failed collectibles, Kevin. Let’s start off with Beanie Babies, Kevin. How about Cabbage Patch Kids, Kevin? What do you think about pogs, Kevin? Care to give your opinion on Franklin Mint collectibles, Kevin? Let’s chat about Indian-head pennies, Kevin. Let’s get to Black Diamond Disney VHS tapes, Kevin. Now, we’ll move on to Hummel Figurines, Kevin. Let’s not forget Hess trucks, Kevin. And worst of all, Kevin, we have Kevin Reilly’s bobbleheads, Kevin.

Reilly: SHUT UP, DICK! MY BOBBLEHEADS WILL BE WORTH MILLIONS ONE DAY! THEY HAVE TO BE BECAUSE IT WAS A BIG ANNOUNCEMENT! AND WHEN THEY ARE, I’LL SHOVE ONE UP YOUR A**HOLE! We’ll be back after this!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers looked great on their opening drive against the Titans, but mustered just 10 points after that. It was a tough matchup against Mike Vrabel, and they have another difficult battle against an Indianapolis stop unit that has been underrated all year.

The Colts did a great job of limiting Kirk Cousins until garbage time that turned into an unexpected victory. They put tons of pressure on him, and they’ll place heavy heat on Justin Herbert as well. Herbert will have more success than Cousins for most of the game because he’s a much better quarterback.

One injury to watch for is the availability of Kenny Moore. Indianapolis’ slot cornerback has been out since leaving the Monday night game against the Steelers. His absence allowed K.J. Osborn to go off, so Keenan Allen would really stand to benefit if Moore is missing once again.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: One reason Minnesota’s so-called greatest comeback of all time wasn’t so impressive was because Jonathan Taylor suffered an injury and wasn’t available to help run out the clock. There’s little doubt that Taylor’s availability would have helped the Colts seal the victory in regulation.

Taylor won’t be able to play in this game, meaning the Colts will once again use the underwhelming rotation of Zack Moss and Deon Jackson. I don’t hate Jackson as a receiver out of the backfield, but Moss sucks. Moss has a great matchup against the Chargers’ poor run defense, but I don’t think he’ll be able to take advantage of it.

A possible returning player to watch on this side of the ball is Joey Bosa. It’s unclear when Bosa will return, but he’s expected back soon. Having him on the field would transform the Chargers’ pass defense into a top-tier unit. Bosa and Khalil Mack both being available will cause Matt Ryan to self-destruct.

RECAP: I thought it would be worth researching how teams have performed after losing in huge comebacks. This obviously applies to the Colts, who blew a 33-0 lead last Saturday.

There’s not a huge sample size of this, but more often than not, the team that lost in these huge comebacks ended up covering the following week. For example, the Colts and Dolphins, who famously lost enormous leads to the Buccaneers and Jets, respectively, in Monday night games, covered the next week despite playing on short rest. I’m not referencing this as a reason to bet the Colts, but rather to note that you shouldn’t be afraid to bet the Colts if you like them.

And I like them! Rather, I want to fade the Chargers. I’ve talked about this before, but I view the Chargers as the Nikola EV company. Nikola is famous for its commercial that had one of their EV trucks impressively drive downhill, only for it to be later revealed that the truck had no engine; employees simply pushed it down the hill. The truck was all flash and no substance, and that’s exactly how I would describe the Chargers. They have issues stopping the run, defending the pass, getting to the quarterback, running the ball, and pass protecting for Herbert. They throw extremely well, especially when trailing, but that’s it. And outside of quarterback, running back and receiver, I challenge you to find an area where the Chargers are better than the Colts.

That said, I’d like the Chargers more if Bosa returns this week. We’ll wait to see what the injury report unearths, but I’m likely to bet Indianapolis.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nick Foles will start for the Colts. I don’t know how the team will react to that, so I’m hesitant to bet them heavily.

FRIDAY NOTES: There hasn’t been any sharp action coming in on either side, so it appears as though they don’t know how the Colts will react either.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Nothing new here since the update yesterday afternoon.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps ended up being on the Colts. I like Indianapolis as well because the Chargers are overrated. I won’t go big on this because we don’t really know how the Colts will react to the quarterback change. The best line is +3.5 -105 at BetUS and Bovada.