NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2022

NFL Picks (Preseason 2022): 7-5 (+$645)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2022): 10-6 (+$1,165)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2022): 7-8-1 (+$1,050)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2022): 11-4-1 (+$2,825)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2022): 10-5-1 (+$1,305)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2022): 6-10 (-$2,625)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2022): 7-7 (-$1,620)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2022): 4-10 (-$2,255)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2022): 7-8 (-$640)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2022): 7-4-2 (+$170)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2022): 7-7 (+$1,460)

2022 NFL Picks: 83-74-5 (+$1,480)
2021 NFL Picks: 153-141-2 (+$210)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 20, 11:35 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 11 NFL Picks – Early Games






NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11 Late Games


Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) at Denver Broncos (3-6)
Line: Broncos by 3. Total: 41.5.

Sunday, Nov. 20, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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DENVER OFFENSE: Was there anyone out there who still had any faith in Nathaniel Hackett prior to Week 10? Perhaps there’s one such individual who’s crazy enough to still like Hackett. Maybe he thought that Hackett would use the bye week to fix the offense and utilize a great game plan to defeat the Titans.

If there was one believer still left, he has certainly changed his mind because the Broncos continued to be dreadful against a Tennessee defense missing half of its starters. Save for one fluky play, a 66-yard touchdown from someone named Jalen Virgil, Denver produced almost nothing, producing just 247 net yards of offense otherwise. The biggest problem was Russell Wilson’s pass protection. Wilson was hit on just about every other play, disrupting the offense completely. Things could be different this week – the Raiders have the fifth-worst pressure rate in the NFL – but the Titans were also missing Jeffery Simmons, and yet they swarmed Wilson.

The Broncos weren’t able to run the ball on the Titans’ stout ground defense, which also had a profound impact on the result. The Raiders are much worse than the Titans at stopping ground attacks, ranking 21st in adjusted EPA in that regard. They just vivified Jonathan Taylor, so Denver has some hope of moving the chains on the ground, albeit with players far worse than Taylor.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Though Denver’s offense continued to be dreadful, the defense at least played well despite the Bradley Chubb trade and the absences of some injured players. They limited the Titans to 17 points, and really only 10 if you discard a big play in which two Denver players collided.

The Raiders, however, have some edges they might be able to exploit in this matchup. The Broncos had no answer for Davante Adams in the first meeting, allowing him to catch nine passes for 101 yards. Adams has been brilliant since his flu debacle versus the Saints, so he should continue to perform on a high level.

Josh Jacobs, meanwhile, also thrived versus the Broncos. We saw evidence of that back in Week 4 when Jacobs rumbled for 144 yards on 28 carries. Jacobs has been a huge part of the receiving game as well; he caught five passes in that victory as well. Jacobs figures to have another big game in Denver.

RECAP: The Raiders beat the Broncos the first time, but I think Denver might get revenge in the rematch. I really wonder about the Raiders’ psyche at this point. No one likes Josh McDaniels, and Derek Carr even had to bite his tongue when nearly talking about his dreadful coach after Week 9. Things worsened for Carr, who practically cried at the podium following the loss to Indianapolis. The Raiders aren’t fighting hard for McDaniels, and even Blake Martinez retired during the week because he had enough.

The Raiders are now 2-7, so what are they playing for, exactly? I know the Broncos aren’t much better at 3-6, but they at least have a glimmer of hope because they might be able to put together a run if they improve to 4-6.

That said, I don’t think playing football player psychologist is the best way to handicap a game. I don’t have much else to go off of, however, as this spread seems priced appropriately. Barring any surprise injuries, I’ll be on Denver.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The vig keeps rising on the Broncos, so we may see some -3s soon.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both Davante Adams and Kolton Miller are listed as questionable after being limited all week. However, the Broncos have issues themselves. Jerry Jeudy and K’Waun Williams are out, while a bunch of other players are questionable after being limited all week, including Baron Browning and several offensive linemen. In short, I will not be betting either side, but I’m including Raiders +8.5 in my teaser because I can’t see Denver blowing them out.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has risen to -3, with the sharps betting the Broncos. I wouldn’t have any interest in going to the Raiders at +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I mentioned that the sharps were on the Broncos, but it’s not a major side for them. You can still get plenty of -2.5s out there, albeit with inflated juice. The best line is -2.5 -118 at FanDuel if you have interest in Denver. I do not despite Kolton Miller being ruled out.






The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.
The Raiders may quit on Josh McDaniels.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -2.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -2.
Computer Model: Broncos -2.
DVOA Spread: .






The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
Slight lean on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 64% (72,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • History: Home Team has won 11 of the last 13 meetings (Raiders won last five).
  • Russell Wilson is 29-10 ATS after a loss since his second season.
  • Opening Line: Broncos -3.
  • Opening Total: 41.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 48 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 11 NFL Pick: Broncos 21, Raiders 17
    Broncos -2.5 -118 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Teaser: Rams +8.5, Raiders +8.5, 49ers -2 (3 Units +150) – Bookmaker — Middle time!
    Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Raiders 22, Broncos 16




    Dallas Cowboys (6-3) at Minnesota Vikings (8-1)
    Line: Cowboys by 2. Total: 48.5.

    Sunday, Nov. 20, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

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    How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: One game is not going to change my opinion of Kirk Cousins, especially when it was against a defense missing a handful of starters. Cousins is still one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL under pressure. Obviously, all quarterbacks hate pressure, but some handle it much better than others. Cousins handles it worse than everyone else. Matt Ryan completed 51 percent of his passes under pressure before getting benched. Carson Wentz’s completion percentage was 47 under pressure before he was replaced by Taylor Heinicke. Baker Mayfield had the same figure while facing heat in the pocket. Jared Goff is especially bad at handling pressure, and he converts 45 percent of his passes in such situations.

    Cousins’ completion percentage under pressure? Forty-two! Yes, 42 percent. It’s bad. And guess who Cousins is playing this week? The Cowboys, who generate more pressure than anyone in the NFL.

    I believe we’ll see Cousins implode, just like he tried to do against the Redskins, who also bring heavy heat. There will be some instances in which he’s bailed out by the brilliant Justin Jefferson, who is my No. 3 vote for MVP in my NFL Power Rankings page. However, it’ll be ugly for Cousins for the most part.

    DALLAS OFFENSE: Unlike the Cowboys, the Vikings don’t get much pressure on the quarterback. They’re just 20th in pressure rate, so Dak Prescott won’t nearly have the same issues Cousins will endure. Prescott doesn’t have the same pressure issues as Cousins (50% completion), but still.

    Prescott will have some time in the pocket to locate his receivers, which will present a problem for a Minnesota secondary that has been abused by talented receivers this year. CeeDee Lamb certainly qualifies. He just shredded Green Bay’s defensive backfield, and he should continue his great play versus the Vikings.

    The Vikings are much better against the run than the pass. In fact, they’re No. 1 in adjusted EPA in that regard. Tony Pollard will struggle to find running room, but he can continue to serve as a dynamic threat out of the backfield. He’s also someone who can go the distance on any play, so he could be bottled up for most of the game and then break free for an 80-yard touchdown.

    RECAP: Minnesota fans hate me because I refuse to put their team into the top eight of my NFL Power Rankings, but I’ve had great success betting against the Vikings this year. I’m 6-3 in their games this year – scroll down to see a breakdown of all teams – so I feel as though I’ve had a great read on them.

    I will once again be fading the Vikings. This is a poor matchup for Minnesota because the Cowboys’ great pressure will create huge problems for Cousins. Furthermore, the Vikings have to be exhausted from their overtime affair in the battle against the Bills that has been dubbed the “game of the year” by many. While the victory was exciting, it was far from impressive. The injury-ravaged Bills led the Vikings for most of the afternoon, and they would have prevailed if Josh Allen didn’t fumble a routine quarterback sneak at the very end. In fact, I’m going to refer to that game as a loss for Minnesota because, technically, it was.

    Recognizing the Bills game as a loss for the Vikings makes it easy to realize how overrated Minnesota is. The Vikings have gotten extremely lucky in some of their real wins this year. They have the makeup of a team that should be 5-4, perhaps 6-3. The Cowboys are better and deserve to be favored in Minnesota. Considering how exhausted the Vikings are, Dallas should be -3 or higher, much like they were in Green Bay. Coming off a loss, the Cowboys will be focused, so I like their chances to cover in a game that is mispriced.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: DeMarcus Lawrence missed Wednesday’s practice, but that wouldn’t keep me off the Cowboys, or anything.

    SATURDAY NOTES: There’s plenty of sharp action on Dallas, as the public is confused about why Minnesota is a home underdog.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: As mentioned on Saturday, the sharp action is on the Cowboys, and this line has moved to -2.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, there’s decent sharp action on the Cowboys, as the public is confused about why the Vikings are home underdogs. The best line is -2 -106 at Bookmaker.





    The Motivation. Edge: Cowboys.
    The Vikings will be exhausted coming off an overtime in what people are calling the greatest regular season game ever.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -1.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Pick.
    Computer Model: Cowboys -1.
    DVOA Spread: .






    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Dallas: 56% (111,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
  • The underdog is 113-83 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.
  • Vikings are 39-27 ATS at home since 2014 (8-12 ATS since 2020).
  • Opening Line: Cowboys -2.
  • Opening Total: 47.5.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 11 NFL Pick: Cowboys 26, Vikings 20
    Cowboys -2 -106 (3 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$300
    Under 48.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Cowboys 40, Vikings 3




    Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)
    Line: Bengals by 3.5. Total: 39.5.

    Sunday, Nov. 20, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

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    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The primary reason I bet the Steelers as my November NFL Pick of the Month last week was because they were getting T.J. Watt back from injury. The Steelers are a completely different team with Watt. They’re in the top six of pass defense EPA with Watt in recent history, and they’re in the bottom five without him. That’s how impactful he is for this team.

    Watt made a huge impact last week, helping to limit the Saints to 10 points. In his other game this year, he harassed Joe Burrow enough to force Burrow into five turnovers. And yet, Burrow had Ja’Marr Chase at his disposal in that game!

    There’s a chance Chase may make it back for this contest, but it’s more likely that he’ll miss another week. If so, the Bengals are going to have severe issues moving the chains. Burrow will be under great duress on most snaps because of Watt, so it’ll really hurt him that he’ll have to throw to lesser receivers. Everyone loves to romanticize No. 1 receivers like Chase, and yet people always underestimate their absence when they’re missing in action. It was no surprise that the Bengals couldn’t score a single point prior to garbage time against the Browns during Chase’s first missed game.

    PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Chase isn’t the only key player missing for the Bengals, as they have severe injuries on this side of the ball as well. They were down three of their top four cornerbacks in their previous game, including Chidobe Awuzie. They were not punished for this because they were battling a demoralized Carolina team, so this will be a different beast.

    I know the Steelers don’t have the most fearsome offense in the NFL, but Kenny Pickett has enjoyed some bright spots this season. More importantly, he has two extremely talented receivers at his disposal. Everyone knows about Diontae Johnson, but George Pickens is making great strides, and he’ll continue to see more targets now that the overrated Chase Claypool has been traded.

    The Bengals are also missing their top two defensive tackles. Because of these injuries, they’re 29th in adjusted run defense EPA. Najee Harris has struggled as a whole this year, but finally showed signs of life last week. There’s a chance Harris could have his best game of the year in this contest.

    RECAP: Let’s keep riding the Steelers! I bet eight units on them last week, and I’ll be adding another five this week.

    I think betting Pittsburgh heavily makes sense until they’re appropriately priced. Remember, dumb ESPN viewers look at team records to determine how good a team is, so they have no idea how underrated the Steelers are. Pittsburgh is a different team with Watt on the field. Also, the Steelers have endured a brutal schedule this year. They are not nearly as bad as their 3-6 record says they are.

    The Bengals, meanwhile, are too banged up to be big favorites like this. The spread just doesn’t make any sense. Cincinnati was -3 at Cleveland, so this line is saying that the Browns are two points better than the Steelers with Watt playing, which is not true at all.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ja’Marr Chase will miss this game, as the Bengals are already talking about his status for Week 12. Meanwhile, sharp money continues to pour in on the Steelers. I’m going to lock in the +4 at Bovada because a +3.5 has already popped up at FanDuel.

    SATURDAY NOTES: It’s a bummer to see that the Bengals will get a defensive tackle and a cornerback back from injury, but Minkah Fitzpatrick will return for the Steelers as well. I still love Pittsburgh.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still love the Steelers, and the sharps have bet this down to +3.5.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps appear to be having a rough day, but they love the Steelers as well. This line is +3.5 -110 in numerous sportsbooks, as the higher spreads from earlier in the week are long gone.





    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -2.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -5.5.
    Computer Model: Pick.
    DVOA Spread: .






    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 52% (86,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Steelers have won 24 of the last 32 meetings (Bengals won 3 of last 4 meetings).
  • Bengals are 20-9 ATS against the Steelers if they lost to them previously the same season in the last 29 instances.
  • Mike Tomlin is 49-28 ATS as an underdog.
  • Opening Line: Bengals -5.
  • Opening Total: 42.5.
  • Weather: Clear, 27 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 11 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Bengals 17
    Steelers +4 (5 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$550
    Moneyline: Steelers +166 (1.2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$120
    Under 39.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Bengals 37, Steelers 30




    Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)
    Line: Chiefs by 5.5. Total: 52.5.

    Sunday, Nov. 20, 8:20 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

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    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chargers had great aspirations of possessing one of the elite pass rushes in the NFL when they signed Khalil Mack this offseason. Things obviously went sideways in Week 3 when Joey Bosa suffered an injury. As a result of Bosa’s absence, the Chargers now have the eighth-worst pressure rate in the NFL. Because the Chargers can’t get to the quarterback very well, they have to blitz often.

    Anyone who knows anything about Patrick Mahomes doesn’t need me to tell them how disastrous this is. Mahomes devours the blitz, so he has to love that Bosa is missing. Remember, Mahomes battled the Chargers in Week 2 when they had Bosa, so he’ll be much better against them this time.

    The Chargers are also terrible at stopping the run, and they’ll be even worse after losing a pair of defensive tackles to injury last week. The Chiefs found a nice rushing attack last week with Isiah Pacheco, so perhaps Kansas City will ride their rookie runner to victory as they attempt to kill the clock in the second half.

    SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers have major injury woes on this side of the ball as well, but things may improve this week. Missing their top two receivers and both starting tackles, the Chargers sound as if they’ll have one of Mike Williams or Keenan Allen back from injury this week.

    If this is true, the Chargers will have a chance to move the ball effectively against the Chiefs. This may seem strange, given that Kansas City is 23rd in adjusted defensive EPA, but I don’t see Joshua Palmer and DeAndre Carter allowing Justin Herbert allowing to keep up in a potential shootout.

    Furthermore, the Chargers don’t have the running game to challenge Kansas City’s poor run defense. I haven’t forgotten about Austin Ekeler, but he doesn’t even handle a huge portion of the carries these days. Ekeler does all of the receiving work out of the backfield, but Isaiah Spiller and Sony Michel are too mixed in for my liking.

    RECAP: The Chiefs are much better than the Chargers, but this spread reflects that. By betting Kansas City, you’re abandoning all the key numbers, save for the Chiefs pushing on seven. You’re also not getting any value because the advance spread was Kansas City -5.5.

    While it’s certainly possible that this game could be a blowout, I think it’s more likely that the Chargers will find some way to keep this close, whether it’s natural or via garbage time. Herbert’s an excellent quarterback, so getting all of the key numbers is very appealing with him. Herbert is 4-0-1 against the spread as an underdog of six or more. Furthermore, the Chiefs are just 3-5 against the spread since Week 2, as they’ve nearly lost to some underwhelming opposition.

    I don’t love this game, but I plan on betting the Chargers. My unit count will depend on how many Chargers are able to return from injury, so check back later in the week for a concrete number.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen were limited with hamstring injuries. Perhaps this is the reason the sharps have dragged this line down to +5.5.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen were limited-limited-full in practice this week. Both are questionable, so it’s shocking that they’d both be sidelined. If both return, the Chargers will look appealing, except the +6 and above lines are gone in most places. You can still get +6 -120 at Bookmaker, so I’ll lock that in now before the spread keeps falling.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like both receivers will be in the game, which makes the Chargers appealing. I would lock this in soon, especially if you can get a viable +6 like I did yesterday.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Gerald Everett is out, while Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are back. The Chargers look good, especially at +6 -120, which is available at Bookmaker. The sharps are on the Chargers, but they’ve gotten destroyed today.





    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -7.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -5.5.
    Computer Model: Chiefs -10.
    DVOA Spread: .






    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on San Angeles: 56% (73,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • History: Chiefs have won 14 of the last 17 meetings.
  • Patrick Mahomes is 62-17 SU, 43-35 ATS (33-26 ATS when not favored by double digits.)
  • Justin Herbert is 4-0-1 ATS as an underdog of 6+.
  • Chargers are 16-25 ATS in San Angeles.
  • Opening Line: Chiefs -7.
  • Opening Total: 50.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 11 NFL Pick: Chiefs 26, Chargers 23
    Chargers +6 -120 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
    Under 52.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Chiefs 30, Chargers 27




    San Francisco 49ers (5-4) at Arizona Cardinals (4-6)
    Line: 49ers by 8. Total: 43.5.

    Monday, Nov. 21, 8:00 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

    This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Francisco, home of the gays, where tonight we have a matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Phoenix Cardinals. Guys, I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, being disowned by your mother is a major drag until you realize that you can go to San Francisco without her signing a permission slip. She never let me go in the past because she was afraid the gay demons would ravage my butt hole, but now I can go to San Francisco, and guess what, Mother? My butt hole has not been ravaged!

    Emmitt: Kolb Reilly, I think you are confusion right now. Very confusion. Because we not in the city of San Francisco, but rather in the city of Mexican.

    Reilly: Oh, no wonder my butt hole hasn’t been ravaged by the gay demons. Sorry guys, I’m all out of sorts because my hero John Festerman won the senate presidency race. He’s my hero because he lived with his mother until she disowned him at an old age like me, and we are two peas in a pod. Now, he can go do well in the senate presidency job. I know this because he was amazing in the debate and had a lot of smart things to say.

    Tollefson: Kevin, I wish I could share your enthusiasm about the election. I’m rather pissed because the party that was pro women’s sexual rights won. I’m opposed to women having any sexual rights. They should all be forced to pleasure me every day!

    Reilly: Tolly, it’s not fair if women are forced into pleasuring you because they won’t pleasure me at all. They won’t even talk to me. But maybe that’ll change now that my pea in a pod politician was elected. And we’re lucky to have John Festerman here as a guest talker! John, how did you beat Oz, and what do you think about the game tonight?

    John Fetterman: The wizard, he was- he was not helping me. Game this morning, good game between two teams, the two teams, there are three teams- three, not two, the wizard, he was helping me. Tough game tonight, you have two teams, three teams, good teams, tough game in the morning, the wizard is no abortion. The wizard is the abortion. Good night, everybody.

    Reilly: Wow, what great football analysis! I think I should think my lucky stars that you’re the senate president and you’re not going for my job!

    Adam Schefter: Kevin, I have breaking news, and I just checked with Les Snead after hiding in his bushes and waiting for him to come home. I wore eight masks on my face and a ninth mask on my penis just so I don’t get Covid even though I’ve been vaccinated 20 times. Les Snead told me this news, and he told me to break it, so here it is: John Fetterman was so impressive with his analysis and victory over Dr. Oz that we are considering for presidency of this media company.

    Reilly: Yes! I knew we were two peas in a pod! I can’t wait to work together!

    Goodell: I also cannot wait for this event, fellow hu-man. I, as a fellow hu-man, are also in a pod with you and Senator elect John Fetterman. We are – randomizing number – 716.12 peas in a pod.

    Reilly: No offense, Roger Goodell, but you are not cool enough to be like me and John Festerman. John is going to do a great job here and also in Washington to help women to have sexual rights.

    Joe Biden: My name is George Biden, and I think women should have sexual rights. Women should have the right to choose. Women can choose whether to touch my hairy legs, or to shower with me while I call them Ashley. This is the choice that all women should have a right to make, no matter what the age. I’m talking about women who go to school for arts and crafts, and I’m also talking about women who are old enough to have entered the first grade, and even the second grade. I’m talking about women of all ages having to choose, and that’s what most important.

    Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong as usual, always wrong is Sleepy Joe, he should be called Always Wrong Joe, or maybe Always Wrong Sleepy Joe, that’s one hell of a nickname, let me tell you, one of the best nicknames anyone has ever come up with, and another great nickname I came up with is Ron Unsanctimonious, that might be my best nickname ever, or at least that’s what people tell me, and frankly, Ron Unsanctimonious thinks he did a good job in the election, and he did a good job, believe it, but he did not do as good of a job as me, frankly, and he probably didn’t do as good of a job as me when we were in grade school, Ron Unsanctimonious probably only got 16 or 17 gold stars for his book reports, unlike me, I got all the gold stars, more stars than anyone else, including John Fetterman, I call him Uncle Festerman, what a disgrace, and he probably had no gold stars, maybe one or two if he were lucky, and Ron Unsanctimonious had no gold stars, but I had all the gold stars, believe me, no one had more gold stars than me, and no one knows more about getting gold stars for book reports than me.

    Wolfley: I HATE TO BRAG, BUT NO ONE HAD MORE GOLD STARS THAN ME, AND MY GOLD STARS HAD LIPS, DIMPLES AND A MOLE ON THE NOSE.

    Reilly: Guys, as usual, you’re straying too far off topic. We need to focus on women’s sexual rights so they can pleasure me, or at the very least, go out with me on a date.

    Jay Cutler: Cough, loser, cough!

    Reilly: New Daddy, you need to come up with some new material because you said this last week. But I don’t care because John Festerman is here to rescue me!

    Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about terrible people who have been elected, Kevin. Let’s talk about other terrible people who have been elected, Kevin. How about Josh Shapiro, Kevin? He wants to force toxic medicine on children, Kevin. What do you think about Gretchen Witchmore, Kevin? She killed all the people in the Michigan nursing homes, Kevin. Can’t wait to hear your thoughts on Brian Fitzpatrick, Kevin. Fitzpatrick has laundered billions of dollars through Ukraine, Kevin. Or maybe we should focus on the people counting votes in Arizona and Nevada, Kevin. At this rate, they’ll be done counting when the 2024 election comes around, Kevin. These people seem to be mentally challenged, Kevin. Just like you, Kevin.

    Reilly: EXCUSE ME, I’M NOT MENTALLY CHALLENGED, MOTHER JUST SAYS THAT I’M A LITTLE BEHIND AS A 64-YEAR-OLD WHO IS STILL BEING HOMESCHOOLED, A**HOLE! We’ll be back after this!

    ARIZONA OFFENSE: It’s unclear who will start for the Cardinals this Monday night as of this writing. Kyler Murray was sidelined with a hamstring injury last week, but there’s a chance he could return for this game. However, even if Murray plays, there’s no guarantee he’ll be 100 percent. Soft-tissue injuries tend to linger, and Murray could easily aggravate his hamstring if he returns too early.

    Whether it’s Murray or Colt McCoy, Arizona’s quarterback will face a much tougher matchup this week than what McCoy saw this past Sunday. That may sound strange because McCoy was battling the Rams, but Los Angeles had the 31st-ranked pressure rate entering Week 10. The 49ers are seventh, and even that is skewed downward because the 49ers endured some injuries earlier in the year.

    The Cardinals are missing numerous players on the offensive line, so shielding Murray will be extremely difficult. Murray can usually negate that with his mobility, but he may not be able to scramble as well as he usually can because of the injury.

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The most noteworthy aspect of the matchup on this side of the ball is that the Cardinals aren’t very good against the run. They’re 23rd in adjusted EPA in that department, which is a death sentence against San Francisco.

    The 49ers, of course, are extremely reliant on the run. They traded for Christian McCaffrey and got Elijah Mitchell back from injury, so they’re even better at rushing the ball than they were earlier in the season. With the Cardinals being susceptible against this, Jimmy Garoppolo will be able to benefit from some great play-action opportunities.

    Of all of Garoppolo’s targets, he will likely have the most success throwing to George Kittle. The worst aspect of Arizona’s defense is its inability to defend tight ends, so Kittle figures to have a huge performance.

    RECAP: It’ll be interesting to see what the spread will be once the quarterback announcement is made for Arizona. The advance spread on this game was San Francisco -5.5, which was obviously a number that assumed Murray would play. The line of -8 means that the sportsbooks are skeptical that Murray will take the field.

    I’m going to be on the 49ers either way, but I’ll be more enthusiastic about it if Murray starts. That may sound strange, but keep two things in mind: First, the line will be lower if Murray plays, meaning we could get some key numbers (-6, -7). Second, Murray, as speculated earlier, may not be 100 percent. We’ll look great if Murray aggravates his injury and can’t run at all behind an injury-ravaged offensive line.

    Check back later once we have some Murray news, or follow me @walterfootball for updates and trolling!

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like Kyler Murray will be out. I’m 50-50 on this game at the moment.

    SATURDAY NOTES: The Cardinals will be missing some important players, such as Byron Murphy, D.J. Humphries and a bunch of other offensive linemen. This will make it difficult for them to block the 49ers, which will be especially problematic if Kyler Murray can’t use his mobility. Murray is questionable for this game after being limited all week. I will definitely be on the 49ers if he starts because I won’t be confident in his ability to stay healthy.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’ll have my final thoughts posted Monday evening, as usual, and I’ll also have an update if we get any Kyler Murray news before that.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Kyler Murray is out, as is D.J. Humphries. I have no idea how the Cardinals will block Nick Bosa and the rest of San Francisco’s front. The sharps bet the Cardinals at +10. The best line is +10 -110 at FanDuel and BetMGM. I’m not going to have an ordinary bet on that, but I will be hedging the bonus leg of the teaser, just as I did last week.





    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -5.5.
    Computer Model: 49ers -6.
    DVOA Spread: .






    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on San Francisco: 51% (38,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
  • History: Cardinals have won 12 of the last 16 meetings.
  • Kyle Shanahan is 11-18 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more.
  • Opening Line: 49ers -7.5.
  • Opening Total: 43.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 11 NFL Pick: 49ers 26, Cardinals 17
    Cardinals +10 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Teaser: Rams +8.5, Raiders +8.5, 49ers -2 (3 Units +150) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$450
    Teaser Hedge/Middle: Cardinals +10 (3.5 Units) – FanDuel/BetMGM — Incorrect; -$385
    Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    49ers 38, Cardinals 10






    week 11 NFL Picks – Early Games
    Titans at Packers, Bears at Falcons, Browns at Bills, Eagles at Colts, Jets at Patriots, Rams at Saints, Lions at Giants, Panthers at Ravens, Redskins at Texans




    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


    Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 11 NFL Picks – Early Games



    2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 9


    NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


    NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

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