NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2022

Tennessee Titans (6-3) at Green Bay Packers (4-6)
Line: Packers by 3.5. Total: 41.
Thursday, Nov. 17, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 10 Analysis: We finally got back to some real winning, though we still endured some bad luck. I’ll continue to break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Panthers, 3 units (win): I kept asking myself why I didn’t bet more than three units on the Panthers. Oh well. At least our teaser hit!

Jaguars, 4 units (loss): Ugh. We failed to get the cover by half a point, and Jacksonville’s idiot kicker missed a chip-shot field goal right before halftime.

Texans, 4 units (loss): This sucked. The Texans outgained the Giants, both in overall yards and yards per play, but turned the ball over twice in the red zone.

Steelers, 8 units (win): I was tilting a bit when Pittsburgh’s kicker also missed a chip-shot field goal, but the Steelers absolutely dominated the second half.

Lions, 4 units (win): It seemed as though this was going to be a push for a while, but the Lions pulled through with an outright victory. Maybe they’ll get to over 6.5 wins after all.

Colts, 5 units (win): We got the moneyline win as well, so that was awesome. It was nice to take advantage of media overreaction stupidity.

Rams, 4 units (loss): This was definitely the wrong side, but I can’t believe the Cardinals had such a convincing win despite how injured they were. By my count, they were missing seven starters and lost an eighth (Zach Ertz) to an in-game injury. That’s how bad the Rams are!

Before I begin, I should note that we have some new features, including WalterFootball Premium. We’ve gotten lots of complaints about the ads over the years, but there hasn’t been anything I can do about them because I’ve needed the ad revenue to pay my employees and the hosting. This is an alternative way to view the site. For $7.99 per month, you won’t get any ads. You’ll also have access to a premium chat where I’ll be every day to answer any questions. The chat will be available soon. If you want to support the site, besides telling others about it, signing up for WalterFootball Premium would be a great way to do so!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I imagine Green Bay fans are thrilled right now because all of the problems their team has endured throughout the season have been fixed. Aaron Rodgers’ thumb is healthy, as evidenced by his 70-percent completion rate versus Dallas. Rodgers now has a dynamic receiver at his disposal because Christian Watson scored three touchdowns. And Rodgers’ pass protection is elite because he was sacked twice versus Dallas.

I’m being facetious, if you couldn’t tell. While the Packers definitely looked much better against the Cowboys, it would be foolish to believe that Green Bay suddenly has improved back into playoff contention. Perhaps Rodgers’ thumb is healthy, but Watson can’t be trusted, especially after he dropped two passes to begin last week’s game. Watson will likely continue to be inconsistent, especially given that Rodgers is expected to see pressure in this game. The Titans are above average in pressure rate and don’t blitz often, so they should be able to bother Rodgers.

The Titans also clamp down on the run well. Aaron Jones was a huge factor in Green Bay’s production versus the Cowboys, so he won’t be nearly as effective this week.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Whereas the Titans stuff the run well, the Packers struggle against it. This will obviously be a huge problem against the Titans because of Derrick Henry.

Henry didn’t have much success against Denver’s terrific defense last week, but things will be much different against a Packer squad missing its top linebacker, De’Vondre Campbell. Henry will be the latest runner to gash Green Bay’s stop unit.

Henry running well will open things up for Ryan Tannehill, who looked mostly healthy in Sunday’s victory over Denver. Tannehill now has a healthy receiving corps at his disposal in the wake of Treylon Burks’ return. Burks being available is huge because Robert Woods looks like he’s running in quicksand because of his recovery from his torn ACL.

RECAP: This is quite the overreaction to one game. The Packers were -1.5 on the advance line, and because of their emotional victory over the Cowboys, they are now field goal favorites with the vig rising in their favor.

Forgive me for not being overly enthused by one measly victory. We have way more data suggesting the Packers are not a good football team, and Tennessee will present challenges the Cowboys didn’t offer. The Titans have a power running game to expose Green Bay’s defense, and they are actually very well coached. Mike McCarthy is a clown show compared to Mike Vrabel, who is 20-7 against the spread as an underdog of three or more.

Getting the key number of three is huge in this matchup. I believe the most likely results of this game are the Titans by three and Packers by three in some order, so we get a win and a push with the +3.

Our Week 11 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There are a ton of injuries to sift through, and we don’t even know if David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins and Jeffery Simmons will be playing. The one surprise thus far is that Titans center Ben Jones has been ruled out. This is a big deal, and it’s enough for me to drop the unit count to two. The best number I currently see is +3.5 -115 at DraftKings.

FINAL THOUGHTS: All the questionable players I listed above – David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins and Jeffery Simmons – are all active. I still like the Titans for a couple of units. The best line is +3 +105 at Bovada. There’s no major sharp action on either side.

Carolina Panthers (3-7) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
Line: Ravens by 13. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Nov. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Lamar Jackson didn’t have his top weapons at his disposal the last time we saw him play. It didn’t end up mattering against a reeling New Orleans squad that couldn’t stop the run at all, as the Ravens won in a blowout. Jackson will obviously need some help against better competition in the second half of the year, which will be a problem considering that Rashod Bateman’s injury is long term.

Mark Andrews, however, has a chance to return this week. I know the Ravens have a viable replacement in Isaiah Likely, but it would be foolish to compare a rookie, albeit a talented one, to an elite tight end like Andrews. The only talented tight ends Carolina has faced this season are George Kittle, who had to block against them because of Trent Williams’ absence, and Kyle Pitts, who had a strong performance in the first matchup.

The big issue for the Panthers here is that they’re 22nd in adjusted run defense EPA. This will be a problem against both Jackson and whomever Baltimore starts at running back, whether that’s Kenyan Drake or Gus Edwards.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers will be making a quarterback change in this game, with Baker Mayfield taking back the job from Phillip Walker. I imagine Carolina’s coaching staff didn’t want for this to happen, but their hand was forced because Walker suffered a high ankle sprain Thursday night.

I never thought I would write this at the beginning of the season, but Mayfield is a downgrade from Walker. Mayfield has the fifth-worst EPA among all quarterbacks this season, and I’m not just talking about starters. The only quarterbacks who have been worse than him are John Wolford, Skylar Thompson, Sam Ehlinger, and Malik Willis. That’s some horrid company, yet it’s justified because Mayfield has been atrocious. Of course, a major reason for his poor play is the awful pass protection. Baltimore has negative season-long marks in regard to its pass rush, but those are misleading because the team has gotten some reinforcements back from injury. Andy Dalton was swarmed in that aforementioned Monday night affair.

The Panthers won’t have much luck running the ball either. Baltimore’s improved health on this side of the ball will translate into a better rush defense. The Ravens just limited Alvin Kamara to 30 yards on nine carries, and they restricted Leonard Fournette to 24 yards on nine attempts the prior week. They shouldn’t have an issue locking down D’Onta Foreman.

RECAP: The Ravens have been a great bet when favored by a ton of points in the Jackson era. Specifically, they are 8-2 against the spread as double-digit favorites with Jackson as a starter. I’m not a big trend guy, but it makes sense that Jackson abuses poor competition that is physically incapable of tackling him.

Also consider Mayfield and the Carolina offensive line. Mayfield has been a worse quarterback than Walker this year, while Carolina’s dreadful blocking figures to do poorly against an enhanced Baltimore pass rush that has welcomed some reinforcements. With extra time to prepare, John Harbaugh will have a great game plan to exploit these liabilities.

I’m not going to bet this game heavily because the Ravens are missing some major firepower to usually cover a spread like this, but I still like them a decent amount because of their huge advantages in coaching and line play.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Something that stood out to me on the injury report thus far is that three Panthers missed Wednesday’s practice with illnesses. Could the flu be floating around Carolina’s locker room? If more illnesses show up, I will be more interested in betting on Baltimore.

SATURDAY NOTES: Lamar Jackson missed Friday’s practice with an illness. John Harbaugh said Jackson will play, but what if he’s not 100 percent? The -13 wager would be dead in that case, so I’m removing any units from this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Lamar Jackson is playing after that weird Friday illness. I like the Ravens a bit, and I’m willing to bet one unit on it. The best line is -13 +100 at Bookmaker. The sharps haven’t taken a side.

Cleveland Browns (3-6) vs. Buffalo Bills (6-3)
Line: Bills by 7.5. Total: 49.5.
Sunday, Nov. 20, 1:00 PM
at Detroit


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides are now 17-17 this year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Steelers PK

Bears -3

Raiders -4.5

The house did well for a change in Week 10.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Redskins -2.5

Bears +3

Broncos -2.5

I’m shocked the Broncos and Redskins are getting so much action. The Bears, not so much.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: I’m torn on Josh Allen’s performance against the Ravens. On one hand, it was impressive that he went 29-of-43 for 330 yards and a touchdown when he wasn’t even supposed to play. On the other hand, he killed his team with yet another red zone interception. The Bills were the true winners of the game, but Allen gave away the victory in bonus action.

I have no doubt that Allen will clean up his act. His red zone antics weren’t a problem until recently, and coming off two consecutive losses will force him to improve his decision-making. I imagine he’ll be extra locked in for this matchup.

Besides, Allen has an incredibly easy matchup this week. The Browns are 26th in adjusted pass defense EPA, and this is because they don’t get to the quarterback very often. Despite Myles Garrett’s presence, the Browns have the seventh-worst pressure rate. The Browns also struggle to tackle in the open field, so Allen will generate tons of rushing yardage.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: If the Browns can somehow keep this close, Nick Chubb should perform well. The Bills are just 20th in run defense EPA, so Chubb will be able to keep the clock moving, which will keep a frustrated Allen on the sideline.

The problem here is that the Bills could be way ahead right away, which would force the Browns out of the run. This is what we saw last week, which explains why Chubb carried the ball a season-low 11 times.

Even if this game is close for a while, there’s no guarantee that Jacoby Brissett won’t have a meltdown. Brissett was constantly swarmed by Miami’s pass rush last week, which is troublesome because the Bills generate more pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Buffalo should also get back some of its injured players to strengthen this side of the ball.

RECAP: Allow me to show you what I typed here before one key factor:

I love backing elite quarterbacks off losses, and Allen is coming off two consecutive defeats. Given that Allen knows that his team needs to get back on track, he’ll be much safer with the ball in this game. At the same time, he’ll be incredibly aggressive as a runner versus a Cleveland defense that can’t stop the rush at all.

Allen is 9-4 against the spread following a defeat since his second season, so I love his chances of leading his team to a big victory. The Browns have secretly been one of the worst teams in the NFL of late, ranking 29th in net adjusted EPA. Their defense is to blame for this, ranking 30th in adjusted EPA. I don’t see how they’ll be able to stop Buffalo at all, and I don’t trust their offense to keep up, especially with Chubb taken out of the game plan once the deficit is large.

I definitely have interest in betting the Bills. I don’t think this spread is high enough. I made this line Buffalo -12, so this looks very appealing because it’s on the wrong side of 10.

OK, so what’s the key factor? The weather! They’re calling for snow and heavy winds in Buffalo this Sunday, causing the spread to drop and the total to plummet. I still like the Bills to redeem themselves, but all bets are off because winning by double digits could be difficult in harsh conditions.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I mentioned illnesses in the previous Thursday Thoughts. Five Bills missed Wednesday’s practice with illnesses. Given that, as well as the insane amount of snow and wind we’ll see, I’m going to switch my pick to Cleveland because of the high spread.

FRIDAY UPDATE: This game has been moved to Detroit, so weather is no longer a factor. With that in mind, I’m going to switch back to the Bills. I’m not sure if I’ll bet the game just yet, but I’m thinking about it.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are two issues with the Bills. One is that they haven’t flown to Detroit yet. Apparently, they’re having trouble getting out of Buffalo. They’re trying to leave Saturday afternoon, but it’s unclear if they’ll be able to get everyone to the airport. Two, there are six Buffalo players with illnesses on the injury report. If the flu is going around the locker room, Buffalo could struggle. Thus, I don’t want anything to do with the Bills.

SATURDAY NOTES II: I’ve decided to bet the Browns. I read a report saying the Bills didn’t have enough healthy bodies to practice during the week as a result of an illness, likely the flu, racing through their locker room. If you don’t remember the last team to get ravaged by the flu, the Raiders were shut out in New Orleans. The Bills are obviously better, but will a bunch of sick players want to tackle Nick Chubb and protect against Myles Garrett? It wasn’t that long ago that the Browns absolutely dominated the Bengals, so they’re more than capable of upsetting the Bills, who traveled extremely late to this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Browns are one of the top sharp plays this week, and I think it’s for the reasons I mentioned in Saturday Notes II. The best line is +8 -110 at Bookmaker.

Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5-1)
Line: Eagles by 6.5. Total: 45.
Sunday, Nov. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. I got some hate for our NFL Power Rankings:



If you don’t think people can be fans of trash, why don’t you talk to Oscar the Grouch?

Here’s another:



I wonder if this guy is utterly confused about how I’m shocked that I thought the Vikings should be lower than No. 9. And they should be.

I like to troll people on Twitter, and I recently got into arguments with two dumb people over abortion. If you ever wanted to know the libertarian view of abortion, here it is:



I never got to reply to the final tweet because he blocked me. I didn’t even see it until I checked my alt account. Imagine being a grown man and having the mentality of a 12-year-old girl. Seriously, how much of a little girl do you have to be to block someone on social media? No wonder this guy doesn’t want his kids to live.

Here’s another thread:



Imagine hating your child so much that you want other people to kill theirs. It sucks, but this guy’s kid will definitely be in therapy in the future.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: There are a number of reasons why the Eagles lost Monday night. One was a quick injury to A.J. Brown. The elite receiver caught his first target and immediately limped toward the sideline. He returned after a brief absence, but wasn’t the same after that. He didn’t catch a single pass after that injury.

Unless Brown’s injury is severe, I would expect him to bounce back in this game. Davante Adams just torched the Colts’ secondary, and Brown is capable of doing similar things, especially when considering that the Eagles have so many other weapons that will worry the Colts. One such threat is Dallas Goedert, who figures to abuse a linebacking corps that will continue to miss Shaq Leonard.

Jalen Hurts will also bother the Colts with his legs. Indianapolis hasn’t faced a scrambling quarterback like Hurts aside from their Week 3 matchup against the Chiefs, and Patrick Mahomes didn’t really try to run in that game because the Chiefs took the Colts lightly. With Leonard missing, Hurts should have success scrambling in an attempt to bounce back from a loss.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: It was surprising that the Colts made the switch back from Sam Ehlinger to Matt Ryan, especially when they didn’t tell anyone. My condolences to those who played Ehlinger over Justin Fields on DraftKings. If you want to be a better DFS player than the 0.45 percent of players who used Ehlinger, sign up for Stokastic for the greatest projections and ownership data. Sign up with this link or use promo code WALTERFOOTBALL for 25% off.

Ryan was a breath of fresh air after we all watched Ehlinger struggle so much. However, Ryan had an extremely easy matchup against the Raiders’ dreadful pass defense. The Raiders have the NFL’s fifth-worst pressure rate, so Ryan was never threatened behind his atrocious offensive line. Things will be different this Sunday, given that the Eagles are one of the best teams at getting to the quarterback.

The one way the Colts can counter this is by establishing Jonathan Taylor. This may seem like a viable strategy, considering that the Eagles tend to struggle against the run. However, Indianapolis’ poor blocking may play a factor here. The Eagles have good talent in the front seven that should be able to win versus the Colts’ bad blockers.

RECAP: It’s funny how quickly everyone’s opinion can change. A week ago, the Colts were so toxic that the 2-6 Raiders opened as 6.5-point favorites. The sharps bet the line down to four, but still, no casual bettor wanted any part of Indianapolis because of the Jeff Saturday coaching decision, which was completely overblown by the media. We were able to benefit with a five-unit win, plus a successful moneyline play.

The advance spread on this game was Philadelphia -10.5. However, because the Colts barely beat a quitting Raider team, and the Eagles lost due to fluky turnovers, a key injury, and poor officiating, this line has dropped FOUR POINTS to -6.5.

Talk about an overreaction! I love the Eagles at this new price. We’re getting a key number in an extremely lopsided matchup, where an elite team will be looking to redeem itself coming off an embarrassing loss. We saw this dynamic with the Bengals crushing the Panthers in Week 9 when favored by a similar number, and I believe the same scenario will play out in this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s sharp money on the Colts. I don’t really understand this, given that we’re getting some great line value with Philadelphia.

SATURDAY NOTES: Eytan Shander, the anchor on the crossover show I do with OddsShopper…



…Brought up a great point, and that would be that Nick Sirianni is pissed that his former boss, Frank Reich, was fired. It’s likely then that Reich told Sirianni some secrets about the Colts, which would give the Eagles an even greater edge.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a ton of sharp money coming in on the Colts. I can see their argument – the Eagles will struggle against the run – but the Eagles pass rush will really give Matt Ryan problems. I like the value we’re getting with Philadelphia. The best line is -6.5 -110 at Bovada and BetMGM. I’m betting two units on this because I like some of the other games more now.

Washington Redskins (5-5) at Houston Texans (1-7-1)
Line: Redskins by 3. Total: 41.
Sunday, Nov. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins ran the ball extremely well Monday night against the Eagles, and I’d expect that to continue in this game. Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson are the most talented runners, but they have a huge edge against Houston’s last-ranked ground defense.

Taylor Heinicke will use the running game to his advantage by being able to convert short-yardage opportunities once more. Heinicke was successful in targeting Terry McLaurin heavily versus the Eagles, and McLaurin figures to have another big game.

The one caveat is that Heinicke tends to be extremely sloppy with the ball. He says he plays every game like it’s his last, but that leads to reckless deep floaters. The Eagles intercepted only one of them, as Heinicke was lucky not to be picked on several occasions. The Texans might have better success in that regard.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans will also attempt to run the ball heavily because their best offensive player is Dameon Pierce. This will not be the best strategy, as the Redskins are far better versus the run than the pass.

Defending the pass could be a big issue, however. That seems strange to say about Davis Mills, but the second-year pro has performed better at home than on the road. Mills also has a plus matchup against a poor Washington secondary that lucked out with the A.J. Brown injury. The Texans’ receiving corps is fully intact, with Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins playing again, which will benefit Mills.

Mills won’t have to worry about Washington’s great pressure rate very much either. One of the Texans’ rare strengths is the offensive line. It’s not an elite blocking unit by any means, but the solid front has kept Mills to 23 sacks, which is the same number as Jalen Hurts and one fewer than Geno Smith.

RECAP: Though the Redskins have crawled their way back to 5-5, and are coming off a victory against the Eagles, I cannot call them a good team. I’m not even sure if they’re mediocre. They’re 18th in net adjusted EPA, so if anything, they’re slightly below average.

I think this is important because I don’t believe a slightly below average team should be a field goal favorite on the road against anyone. I know the Texans are certainly worse than the Redskins, but they’ve been competitive in most of their games this year. They just lost to the Giants by eight, but outgained New York, both in overall yardage and yards per play.

I made this line Washington -1, so I believe we’re getting great value with the +3. Furthermore, the Redskins will be a bit flat after their big win on national TV. They celebrated the victory as if they had just won the Super Bowl, so I’ll be shocked if we see anything close to their A+ effort in this affair.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I considered dropping my unit count because the Texans could be one of these dumb teams that cost me because they’re not good at all, but come on, how can the crappy Redskins be favored by three on the road? We can even get +3.5 -120 at BetUS. The Redskins won their Super Bowl last week, and that leads me to a trend I found. I hate trends, but I think it makes sense that teams coming off wins as double-digit underdogs are just 54-81 against the spread the following week.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing new on the injury report. I remain heavy on the Texans, much like the sharps.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Here’s another game with some major sharp action, and it’s coming in on Houston. I love the Texans (gulp), and the best +3 line is for +100 at Bovada and BetMGM. I tried finding a great +3.5, and the best one is for -127 vig at Bookmaker. I think I’m going to split the difference because I was so torn on which line to bet.

New York Jets (6-3) at New England Patriots (5-4)
Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 38.5.
Sunday, Nov. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

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NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Here we go again! It’s the fourth meeting between Bill Belichick and Zach Wilson. Belichick has tortured Wilson thus far in the young quarterback’s career. The Patriots beat the Jets by a combined score of 79-19 last year. The first matchup this season wasn’t as lopsided, but Wilson did not perform well. He “led” his team to 17 points in a five-point loss, as he failed to complete half of his passes and threw three interceptions.

I don’t see why the results would be different just three weeks later. Wilson has enjoyed an entire week to prepare, but so has Belichick. And it’s not even like Wilson is getting a fair shake behind an offensive line that is missing Alijah Vera-Tucker.

Things might be different for the outcome of this game if Wilson had Breece Hall with him in the backfield. Hall was capable of flipping the game in an instant because of his ability to go the distance on any single play, but the Jets no longer have that element in their offense.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: While Belichick versus Wilson is as lopsided as it gets, it’s not like Mac Jones versus Robert Saleh is all that even. The Jets did a number on Jones in the Week 8 matchup as well. Jones was guilty of an interception and a fumble, and that doesn’t include the pick-six he fired that was negated by a ticky-tack penalty.

Jones is turnover-prone, and I expect him to continue to be so. Jones isn’t protected very well, and the Jets have the fourth-best pressure rate in the NFL. New York also seldom blitzes despite getting heavy heat on the quarterback, making matters worse for Jones.

Belichick will attempt to establish Rhamondre Stevenson to keep his quarterback from getting overly exposed. This could be an area in which the Patriots benefit, as the Jets are just 17th in adjusted run defense. Stevenson also did well as a receiver out of the backfield back in Week 8, catching seven passes for 72 receiving yards.

RECAP: Belichick versus Wilson. This is as one-sided as it gets. We’ve seen Wilson, to quote a Hall of Fame running back, get debacled by Belichick in three matchups thus far, and I don’t see why this wouldn’t be a fourth.

If the Patriots had a reliable quarterback, I’d be all over them. However, Jones is a turnover machine. Jones versus Saleh is lopsided as well, so Jones could easily implode and cost New England a potential victory. For that reason, I don’t have a strong take on this game, though I am picking New England for office pool purposes.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: If you like the Patriots, I would bet them soon at -3 -115 at BetUS. The vig is rising in their favor, so we may see -3.5 soon.

SATURDAY NOTES: I only see one -3 left, which is -3 -120 at Bovada. Again, if you like the Patriots, I’d bet on that now because the other sportsbooks have -3.5 listed.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp action on the Patriots here at -3. I like New England a bit at -3 -125, which is available at BetUS, but not enough to bet them.

Detroit Lions (3-6) at New York Giants (7-2)
Line: Giants by 3. Total: 45.
Sunday, Nov. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

DETROIT OFFENSE: It was not a surprise to see the Lions fight back from a two-touchdown deficit to defeat the Bears last week. Their offense can be explosive at times, especially when Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift are on the field. St. Brown was terrific versus the Bears. Swift, not so much, but he will be ready to handle a big workload one of these weeks.

I’m not sure if this will be the week, but the Lions have an advantage in the running game versus the Giants. New York is just mediocre versus the run, and Dan Campbell loves to pound the ball with Jamaal Williams, especially when ahead. This cost him a victory over the Dolphins, but Miami is much better versus the rush than New York.

The Giants are worse against the pass, ranking 20th in adjusted EPA in that regard. They blitz often, which will benefit Jared Goff. This may sound surprising, but Goff isn’t bad against the blitz. He’s completing 65 percent of his passes on an 8.2 YPA when blitzed. Goff is generally bad when under heavy pressure when not blitzed, but the Giants don’t apply lots of heat on quarterbacks without sending extra pass rushers.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Everyone believes the Lions suck against the run. All I heard last week was that David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert were going to trample Detroit. The week before, all the talk was how Aaron Jones would be unstoppable. The week prior to that, some DFS sites not named Stokastic were touting Raheem Mostert. All of those backs did nothing.

The Lions, believe it or not, are 15th in adjusted run defense EPA. They’ve welcomed back some players from injury recently who have helped them shut down the rush. So, when everyone says that Saquon Barkley will have the game of his life this week, don’t believe them. I think Barkley will do well, but this will not be a dominating performance.

Daniel Jones will have to do more this week than he did against the Texans and their putrid rush defense. This could be problematic because the Lions have gotten back Charles Harris from injury to join Adian Hutchinson. Detroit’s pass rush has been much better lately as a result. this is not good news for Jones, who is currently missing two starters on the offensive line.

RECAP: I don’t know how many times I can say it. The Lions are not as bad as everyone thinks they are. They possess some offensive firepower and an elite blocking unit. People love to mock their defense, but that side of the ball hasn’t been as bad since some starters have returned from injury. Their defensive adjusted EPA is 25th, which isn’t very good, but it’s not atrocious either.

The Giants, conversely, are not nearly as good as their record says they are. They were just outgained by the Texans, both in total yardage and yards per play. They were lucky to beat the Titans and Panthers to start the year. Their marquee win over the Packers in London is now very unimpressive. Their other great win was against the Ravens, and Baltimore sleepwalked through that game, and yet, they were still winning before Lamar Jackson imploded at the end.

Just look at the few common opponents these teams have had. The Giants were dominated at home by the Cowboys with Cooper Rush starting. The Lions went into Dallas and would have taken a 13-10 lead over the Dak Prescott-led Cowboys with 10 minutes remaining had Jamaal Williams not fumbled at the 1-yard line. Meanwhile, against Seattle, the Lions fought hard despite not having St. Brown or Swift on the field (as well as six other starters), while the Giants were blown out in Seattle.

I really don’t think there’s any sort of difference between the two teams, aside from the strength of schedule. The Lions have spent time battling the Eagles, Vikings, Dolphins, and Patriots, while the Giants only have Baltimore as a difficult uncommon opponent. Otherwise, the Giants have feasted on the Titans (a Tennessee team that was dismantled the following week), Panthers, Jaguars, and Texans. If you flip the schedules, the Lions likely would have a winning record, while the Giants would be floundering with three or four wins.

In case you couldn’t tell, I’m betting the Lions. These teams are about even, so considering that the Giants’ home field is worth one point, this spread should be New York -1. Furthermore, the Lions could be caught looking ahead to their rematch against Dallas on Thanksgiving, so they could be flat against a hungry Detroit team that is regressing to the mean.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money is coming in on the Lions. I’m going to lock this in just in case the line drops to +2.5. The best line is +3 -105 at BetUS.

SATURDAY NOTES: I can’t say I’m happy about the injury report. I’ve made a big deal about some Lions players coming back from injury, like Charles Harris and DeShon Elliott. Harris is out again this week, while Elliott is questionable after being limited all week. However, the Giants are still down two offensive linemen.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I could have waited for a better number with the best line being +3 +100 at Bovada. The best line isn’t great, with it being +3.5 -129 at Bookmaker. The sharps are on the Lions.

Los Angeles Rams (3-6) at New Orleans Saints (3-7)
Line: Saints by 2.5. Total: 39.5.
Sunday, Nov. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

Video of the Week: It’s inevitable. Another Steamed Hams episode! In this one, Skinner has a bad stutter, and Chalmers has Tourettes.



It’s amazing that despite the bad stutter, Skinner was able to say “isometric exercise” properly.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: When I began writing my picks on Tuesday morning, the Saints were -3 over the Rams. I just re-checked the spread, and it has moved to -4. I figured there might have been some news regarding Matthew Stafford, but the only thing I could find was that Stafford is still in concussion protocol, and that Sean McVay hasn’t communicated with Stafford since the prior week.

I imagine this line movement was the sharps taking a speculative bet on the Saints just in case Stafford is ruled out again. There’s a chance that could happen, but Stafford could also very easy clear concussion protocols soon, as the Week 11 practices haven’t even begun yet. Whether it’s Stafford or John Wolford, I don’t think it’s far-fetched to think the Rams could have some passing success on New Orleans, even when considering Cooper Kupp’s absence. The Saints are 22nd in pass defense EPA, and their pass rush is sixth-worst in pressure rate. The Rams have an abysmal offensive line, but it doesn’t seem as though the Saints will be able to take advantage of that.

The Rams, of course, will try to run the ball on the Saints, as they’ve attempted to do with every opponent this year. They haven’t been successful, but the Saints have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so perhaps there’s a sliver of hope for Darrell Henderson, Cam Akers or Kyren Williams to have some positive gains.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: It’ll be key for the Rams to shut down the Saints’ rushing attack because Alvin Kamara is the primary threat on the team. While the Saints are 26th in adjusted run defense EPA, the Rams are sixth. They’ll be able to handle Kamara, at least on the ground.

Kamara might have some success as a receiver out of the backfield. Andy Dalton will have plenty of time to locate him and his other receivers. Aside from the Falcons, no NFL team generates less pressure than the Rams. This is music to Dalton’s ears, given the numerous injuries the Saints have on their offensive line.

RECAP: This spread is getting out of control. I once recognized the Saints as an underrated team, but they’ve been devastated by injuries. They’re down three offensive linemen, their top receiver, two defensive backs, including their top cornerback, and a talented linebacker. Throw in the fact that the Saints’ pass rush has been a major disappointment this year, and you have a team that shouldn’t be favored by more than three over anyone in its current state.

I know, I know, the Rams suck. They just lost Kupp. I get it. However, aside from last week’s loss, the Rams have been competitive this year when they haven’t battled elite competition. The Saints obviously do not qualify as elite competition, so I have hard time seeing them winning this game by five or more, even if the Wolflord can’t cast Hurtmore as a result of being Stopspelled.

I plan on betting on the Rams, but the unit count will depend on the injuries to Stafford and other players. If Stafford is out, this line will continue to rise, and if Stafford plays, something like +3.5 works for me. Check back later, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: So much for that sharp speculation. Matthew Stafford returned to a full practice on Wednesday, so there was sharp action going the other way on the Rams at +4. The Saints, meanwhile, have more than half their roster on the injury report. The Rams have been competitive with every non-elite team they’ve played with Stafford under center, and New Orleans doesn’t deserve to be favored by more than a field goal.

SATURDAY NOTES: Matthew Stafford is back, while the Saints’ injury report is a total disaster. They’re now down three offensive linemen because James Hurst is out. Marshon Lattimore and Pete Werner are still sidelined. Now, both top pass rushers, Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport, will be out as well. It’s no wonder there’s so much sharp action on the Rams. Unfortunately, all the +3s have vanished before my very eyes. I didn’t think this spread would cross three, yet here we are. The lone viable +3 I see is for -115 vig at BetMGM. I registered there just to bet this game. Also, this is part of my three-leg teaser, which I’ll attempt to middle again.

FINAL THOUGHTS: All the viable +3 lines are gone, as the sharps have been all over the Rams. You can pay for +3 for -135 at Bookmaker, but I’m not crazy about that. The Saints have so many injuries, so it’s no wonder the pros like the underdog.

Chicago Bears (3-7) at Atlanta Falcons (4-6)
Line: Falcons by 2.5. Total: 49.
Sunday, Nov. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



Oh, and my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I don’t know what’s more amazing: Justin Fields’ running, or the fact that two coaching staffs couldn’t figure out his supreme ability before the current regime decided to make changes after it was too late to salvage this season. What do you guys think? I find it incredibly shocking that there’s such incompetence among coaches in the NFL, and yet, the more I think about it, the more I’m not surprised.

Nevertheless, Fields has transformed into the next Lamar Jackson. He broke the single-game quarterback rushing record two weeks ago, and he nearly topped it again this past Sunday! Now, he’ll be battling a dreadful Atlanta defense on turf. I like his chances of having another big game.

Fields should also have success airing out the ball to Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool and Cole Kmet. The Falcons are worse against the pass than the run because they sport the NFL’s worst pressure rate.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons aren’t the only team with a dreadful defense in this game. As a result of trading Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith, the Bears are ranked 31st in adjusted defensive EPA. The only team worse on this side of the ball is the Raiders.

That said, the Bears aren’t terrible against the run. They’re 18th in that regard. Atlanta will have success moving the chains on the ground with Cordarrelle Patterson and Marcus Mariota, but it won’t be the same sort of performance you’d typically see when teams battle the Texans, for example.

Where the Bears are especially putrid is when it comes to stopping the pass. They’re dead last in that regard. They get very little pressure on the quarterback, and they don’t cover well. This would greatly benefit most teams, but Mariota has been a dreadful thrower, routinely missing open receivers. He was fortunate not to be picked five times last week.

RECAP: I feel like such a square betting the Bears, but sometimes the public gets it right. Chicago’s defense sucks, but its offense has improved markedly since Fields transformed into Lamar Jackson. Fields will be on turf in this game, which will help him even more. Meanwhile, I’ve been on the Falcons fade train since they began the year 6-0 against the spread. That record was such a farce, so it’s not a surprise that the Falcons have failed to cover a single spread since then. They pushed against an injury-ravaged Charger team, and they failed to cover twice against the Panthers and the Bengals. Two of those three losses were decided by double digits.

For the Bears +3 to lose, the Falcons will have to win this game by four or more. I apologize for stating the obvious, but it must be said because the Falcons have two victories of four or more this year, and one doesn’t count because it came against a San Francisco team that was missing half of its roster due to injury. I’ve stated repeatedly that it’s best to completely disregard that game for handicapping purposes, so Atlanta has just one real victory by four or more. And that was exactly by four in a back-and-forth affair in Seattle.

I made this spread pick ’em, so I’m more than happy to bet the value with the Bears. Getting wins with three primary key numbers and a win with a fourth is very appealing.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Khalil Herbert is out, so this will be David Montgomery’s backfield against an Atlanta defense that can’t stop the run. I still like the Bears.

SATURDAY NOTES: A.J. Terrell may return this week, but given that he’s dealing with hamstring problems, he could aggravate the injury if he takes the field, especially after being limited all week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: A.J. Terrell is back, yet this line has dropped, as the sharps have had no interest in the Falcons (or the Bears, for that matter). You can pay up for +3 at BetUS for -125 vig, which is worth it.