NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2022

Philadelphia Eagles (7-0) at Houston Texans (1-5-1)
Line: Eagles by 14. Total: 45.5.
Thursday, Nov. 3, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

Week 8 Analysis: I can’t believe we’re now in the red after such an amazing start. We’ve suffered so many bad beats these past four weeks, it had me questioning if I’ve desecrated an Indian burial ground sometime after Week 4. Sure, there have been some bad calls along the way, but I can’t remember such a string of bad luck. As a gambling friend of mine put it to me via text, “I have absolutely had it with this NFL season. These last four weeks have been the most frustrating I’ve maybe ever had.” And that text was sent before the nonsense in the Colts-Redskins game! I’ll continue to break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Panthers, 5 units (win): We won this one, but still got unlucky because our moneyline bet on Carolina failed because idiot kicker Eddy Pineiro missed a 33-yarder in overtime. Nice earrings, bro.

Lions, 4 units (loss): The Lions were up by double digits for a chunk of this game, yet ended up losing by four as 3.5-point underdogs. I feel like the Lions would have covered if I bet Miami.

Cardinals, 5 units (loss): This game was even, yardage-wise, and it was a 28-26 score with 10 minutes left when Arizona, at +3.5, was set to get possession. Of course, idiot punt returner Greg Dortch fumbled the ball, setting up the Vikings with a covering touchdown.

Giants, 3 units (loss): This was a bad pick, although I will say that I handicapped this game as if D.K. Metcalf would be sidelined. When it was announced Metcalf would play, I assumed he would just be a distraction because he was supposed to be out for a few weeks. Somehow, Metcalf was his usual, dominant self.

Colts, 3 units (loss): The Colts, as 2.5-point favorites, were up 16-7 with a few minutes remaining. They allowed a field goal, so they were still in good shape. The Redskins, however, converted a fourth down and then Terry McLaurin ripped a possible interception away from Stephon Gilmore to set up the game-winning touchdown. Of course.

Packers, 3 units (win): I’d say we got lucky here, but the spread was still super high.

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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: This doesn’t seem like a fair matchup. It was just two weeks ago that Derek Carr threw all over the Texans, and yet that output featured a sub par offensive line and an injured tight end who couldn’t take advantage of a weakness at linebacker. The Eagles, conversely, have an elite pass protection unit and a healthy Dallas Goedert. Jalen Hurts is playing at a very high level right now, and that should continue against Houston’s hapless defense.

Then again, Hurts may not have to do anything because the Texans’ run defense is so bad. Houston is dead last versus the rush, as Derrick Henry learned last week when he ran for 200-plus yards for the millionth time against them. The Eagles had the No. 1 rushing attack in the NFL last year, so they can pivot to Miles Sanders and trample the Texans.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Davis Mills was dreadful last week. He was constantly under siege, and as a result, he was 5-of-11 for 17 yards and an interception at halftime versus Tennessee. He eventually eclipsed the century mark, but only because of garbage time. Mills is a huge liability against elite defenses, and that’s exactly what Philadelphia has.

The Eagles have two great cornerbacks, and the Texans have nothing at receiver, outside of Brandin Cooks, who hasn’t been as good this year. This is obviously a huge edge in Philadelphia’s favor, especially when factoring in the team’s terrific pass rush. If Mills thought his pass protection was bad against Tennessee, he hasn’t seen anything yet.

The Texans would love to establish the run with Dameon Pierce to keep Hurts off the field, but that doesn’t seem feasible for two reasons. One, the Eagles will likely be too far ahead for the Texans to run frequently. Two, the Eagles are stellar against the rush.

RECAP: This spread may seem too high, but it might be appropriate, given the disparity between these teams. Obviously, we know that the Eagles are one of the best teams in the NFL, while Houston could arguably have the worst roster in the league. But this becomes magnified in this situation. Thursday night games are unkind to less-talented teams because they don’t have enough time to prepare an adequate game plan to overcome major personnel disparity. Unless the favorite is going to be unfocused, or it has a major matchup flaw, you should lay the points on Thursday night.

I don’t see why the Eagles wouldn’t be focused. This is a matchup against a non-conference foe, but they’re not coming off a monumental win, and they only have the Redskins coming up, so I don’t see why they wouldn’t cover. I don’t plan on betting the game, however, as we’re getting no line value with the Eagles, with the advance spread being Philadelphia -9.

Our Week 9 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s sounding like there’s a real chance Brandin Cooks won’t play in this game. After he wasn’t dealt during the trade deadline, he posted some cryptic tweets and is now questionable. I don’t see how the Texans can be competitive without him. That said, I’d rather bet the first-half line once again to avoid the dreaded back-door cover.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No Brandin Cooks or Nico Collins for the Texans, so I don’t know how they’re supposed to move the ball. This line is up to -14 across the board (-105 at Bookmaker and Bovada), and I still like the Eagles at that number. As mentioned earlier today, the first-half line is most appealing. The sharps haven’t had any interest in this game.

Indianapolis Colts (3-4-1) at New England Patriots (4-4)
Line: Patriots by 4.5. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Nov. 6, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I still can’t believe Mac Jones was named the starter over Bailey Zappe last week. The sharps loved it, but Jones was so close to giving the game away with some potential turnovers. He was bailed out by a penalty on what seemed like a pick-six for the Jets. Jones has been a turnover machine, while Zappe has done a better job of managing games.

Jones could be in store for a turnover or two in this matchup. The Colts generate decent pressure on the quarterback, and their defense, which was already 15th in pass EPA in the previous six weeks, will continue to improve with Shaq Leonard on the field. Perhaps Gilmore will get the interception he nearly secured last week while getting revenge on his former team.

It’s difficult to run on the Colts as well. Their 12th in rush defense EPA, which, again, should improve with Leonard on the field. It’ll be difficult for Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris to find adequate running lanes.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: I don’t have much faith in the Colts running well either. The offensive line has been a huge disappointment, which would explain why Jonathan Taylor has failed to eclipse 80 rushing yards against anyone this year, save for the Texans in Week 1. The Patriots are sub par versus the rush, but I don’t see them having issues with Taylor.

With that in mind, one has to wonder how the Colts will move the ball. Sam Ehlinger is making only his second career start, which bodes very poorly against Bill Belichick. The Hall of Fame coach has an amazing track record against young quarterbacks, especially when battling against them at home. Belichick will confuse Ehlinger into making some mistakes.

It must be noted that the exception to this rule is that Belichick isn’t very good when it comes to stopping mobile quarterbacks. Ehlinger can move, but he scrambled six times for only 15 rushing yards last week, proving to be a big disappointment for anyone starting him in DFS. He’s not Justin Fields or Lamar Jackson, so I don’t think he’s quite mobile enough to give Belichick any issues.

RECAP: I was a bit surprised to see that sharp action on the Colts brought this spread down from +6.5 to +5.5. The line went through a key number, so that makes New England more appealing.

I get that this is a high line for a New England squad that doesn’t have the most electric offense, but there’s such a huge advantage in New England’s favor with Belichick going against an inexperienced quarterback. The offense’s limitations won’t matter much when New England’s defense sets up some scores with short fields off turnovers. I’m not in love with this game, but the Patriots seem like the correct side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still don’t understand why the sharps bet the Colts down from +6.5 to +5.5, but they haven’t touched Indianapolis since. Jonathan Taylor missed Wednesday’s practice, but Deon Jackson has proven himself to be more than capable as a replacement, if needed.

SATURDAY NOTES: Maybe I’m jaded from last week’s Raiders-Saints, but two Patriots (Jack Jones, Damien Harris) missed practice with an illness. Granted, 15 Raiders had illnesses, but if something is spreading in New England’s locker room, I want nothing to do with the team.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps continue to pound the Colts. This line is down to -4.5 at FanDuel. I still have no interest in betting this game.

Buffalo Bills (6-1) at New York Jets (5-3)
Line: Bills by 10.5. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Nov. 6, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides are now 15-14 this year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Ravens +2

49ers -1.5

Raiders -1.5

The public once again did well in Week 8.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Eagles -13

Seahawks +2

A big road favorite is not a surprise, and neither is a popular road dog.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: If you haven’t heard this before, you’re new to the Web site: The way to beat elite quarterbacks, without outscoring them in a shootout, is to pressure them with four players consistently. Elite signal-callers eat up the blitz, and Josh Allen is no exception, having thrown seven touchdowns to three interceptions against it this year.

This bodes well for the Jets’ defense, which has been stellar this year. New York is fourth in defensive EPA in the past six weeks, and one of the reasons for that is their pass rush, which ranks 11th in pressure rate despite the team seldom blitzing. In fact, no team blitzes less frequently than the Jets. New York will apply plenty of pressure on Josh Allen, who will have issues finding open receivers against a talented secondary.

The Jets also happen to be stout versus the run. This obviously means less in this matchup because the Bills don’t utilize their running backs nearly as often as other teams. The X-factor is Allen as a scrambler, and I’m sure he’ll move the chains often with his legs.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets were able to prevail in spite of Zach Wilson during their long winning streak, but that’s finished. Wilson was exposed last week versus Bill Belichick, as he was no longer able to count on big plays from Breece Hall. Alijah Vera-Tucker being out of the lineup didn’t help matters.

Wilson now has to match wits with another defensive mastermind in Sean McDermott. The Bills will have a great defensive game plan prepared to confuse the young quarterback. Of course, the constant pressure won’t help matters, as Buffalo’s defensive front will dominate the Vera-Tucker-less Jets line.

The Jets will need to counter by getting the ball out of Wilson’s hands as quickly as possible. Perhaps Wilson will heavily target Tyler Conklin again, but I can’t see the Jets’ rushing attack doing much without Hall.

RECAP: This spread is a bit out of control. The advance line was Buffalo -10.5, which was close to my projected spread of -9.5. Yet, because Zach Wilson embarrassed himself against the Patriots, this number as risen three points. Granted, there’s not much of a difference between -10.5 and -13.5 because that doesn’t cross any key numbers, but it’s still a surprising move.

I’ll be on the Jets because of the line value, but I can’t say I’m enthused to bet this game. Wilson is a huge problem, and Buffalo’s pass rush is going to cause problems for a Jets offensive line missing Vera-Tucker. However, I’m not sure the Bills will be completely focused. They just won on national TV, and following this “easy win,” they have to battle the 6-1 Vikings. To be honest, I’m not sure if Minnesota will be on Buffalo’s radar, but I’m confident that we won’t see the Bills’ A+ effort in this contest.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is dropping with some sharp money coming in on the Jets. I can’t say I’m surprised by this, given how high the line is.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bills are going to be down Matt Milano and Jordan Poyer, but I’m not sure if Zach Wilson can take advantage of those absences against smart defensive coaches. Also, the Bills will have Tre’Davious White available, which is a huge boon for their pass defense. I still think this spread is a bit high despite it dropping as a result of sharp action on the home dog. I’ve decided to switch to Buffalo.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bills won’t have Matt Milano, Jordan Poyer, or Spencer Brown. This might be part of the reason why the sharps love the Jets. I was on the Jets earlier in the week, but I made the switch to Buffalo. Either way, I’m not betting this game.

Miami Dolphins (5-3) at Chicago Bears (3-5)
Line: Dolphins by 4. Total: 49.5.
Sunday, Nov. 6, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. This is regarding the recent slump:



He was wrong heading into Week 8, but sadly, he is now correct.

I got some hate for our NFL Power Rankings:



I’m glad this guy believes it’s such great reading material.

Here’s something that continued from last week:



Poor guy. He doesn’t even realize I’m joking about his mental issues.

MIAMI OFFENSE: This would have been a great matchup several weeks ago. The Bears didn’t have top cornerback Jaylon Johnson available for three weeks, and we saw Kirk Cousins torch them in one game. Things have changed since Johnson’s return, however. They’re 12th in pass defense EPA in the past three weeks despite battling Dallas during that stretch.

It’s difficult to stop Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but unlike the Lions, the Bears have the personnel to at least slow them down a bit. Chicago can also generate a decent pass rush without blitzing, so that’ll adversely affect Tua Tagovailoa.

The Bears are at their weakest on this side of the ball when it comes to stopping the run; we saw this last week when Tony Pollard obliterated them despite not even touching the ball 20 times. Raheem Mostert figures to have plenty of success on the ground.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears have a huge weakness on this side of the ball that was easily exploited last week. This, of course, is their offensive line, which stood no chance against Micah Parsons and company. Things will be different this week, however, as the Dolphins have the fourth-worst pressure rate in the NFL. Justin Fields will have much more time in the pocket this week.

Fields will naturally utilize his legs, which has been a more common theme in the past couple of weeks. He was able to keep the Bears in the game for a while with his mobility, and this will once again prove to be the case against the Dolphins.

Miami is at least decent at stopping the run, so I wouldn’t expect much from David Montgomery or Khalil Herbert. That said, the threat of Fields running will open up some opportunities for them.

RECAP: It sounds like there could be some serious weather in this game. Things can always change, but they’re calling for rainy and windy conditions, much like we saw in Week 1 when the Bears battled the 49ers. If so, this obviously benefits the Bears because it removes Miami’s passing attack. If the Dolphins can’t consistently air the ball out to Hill and Waddle, then they don’t have much going for them. In that case, the team with the better running game would prevail. Given that Fields runs way more than Tagovailoa, I’d say that Chicago would have the edge.

If it’s not going to be rainy and windy, I still like the Bears. Their pass defense has improved ever since Johnson returned from injury, so they’ll do a better job of stopping Tagovailoa and his receivers than the Lions, though you could say that by default. Meanwhile, Fields won’t be under pressure very much, so he would be able to take advantage of injuries in Miami’s secondary.

Also, I think this line is too large. I think the Dolphins should be about -3; not -5. We’re currently getting four of the six key numbers with Chicago, which is very appealing.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It doesn’t look like the weather is going to be nearly as bad as initially anticipated. There may not even be any rain, though it’s still expected to be pretty windy. I’m decreasing my unit count, however, because the Dolphins traded for Bradley Chubb. This will help their pass defense tremendously.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve decided to put a unit on the Bears after being reminded that the Dolphins had severe issues dealing with Lamar Jackson’s mobility. It just sucks that Miami made a huge upgrade by acquiring Bradley Chubb. I would otherwise love Chicago, but Miami’s pass rush is now likely in the top 10, which will be a big edge over Chicago’s horrible offensive line.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Larry Borom is back for the Bears, which is key because the Dolphins now have a much better pass rush. The sharps seem to care, as they continued to bet Chicago down to +4. I’d be heavy on the Bears if the Dolphins didn’t acquire Bradley Chubb.

Minnesota Vikings (6-1) at Washington Redskins (4-4)
Line: Vikings by 3. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Nov. 6, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings just traded for T.J. Hockenson – see my NFL Trade Grades page for details – but it’s unlikely that he’ll be fully integrated into the game plan in his first week. That said, he could have somewhat of an impact in this matchup, given how bad Washington’s linebacking corps happens to be.

Even if Hockenson doesn’t give the Vikings much right away, I’d still feel comfortable about Minnesota’s chances of scoring plenty of points, at least in the early stages of this game. The Redskins have some serious problems in their secondary that can easily be exploited by Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.

That said, if the Vikings decide to go into a shell late in the afternoon via Dalvin Cook runs, they could blow another lead. The Redskins happen to be stout against the run, so they’ll do a decent job of putting the clamps on Cook. If they can force Cousins into long-yardage situations, they’ll get to him with their fifth-ranked pressure rate.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings have some defensive issues that can be exploited as well. This primarily involves Terry McLaurin, who has been vivified in the wake of the quarterback switch. Carson Wentz was too incompetent to get the ball to McLaurin, but Taylor Heinicke has been able to do so.

I like Heinicke’s chances in this game. The Vikings have a shaky cornerback group that has caused the team to be ranked 22nd in pass defense EPA. Minnesota has struggled mightily this year to defend any team with a quality receiving corps. Heinicke, who has been much better than Wentz, figures to take advantage of this with McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and possibly Jahan Dotson.

Like the Redskins, the Vikings are stout against the run. Both teams are in the top five of rush defense EPA, so Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson won’t have any sort of success on the ground.

RECAP: Here we go again. It’s time for my weekly segment on why we should fade the Vikings. Minnesota has gotten so lucky in many of its victories. It should have lost to the Lions, but got bailed out by injuries to Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift. The Vikings likely would have suffered a defeat to the Saints had Alvin Kamara played. They were outgained by 224 yards by the Dolphins, who were using a third-string quarterback. And last week, the Cardinals fumbled a punt return in a 28-26 game with 10 minutes remaining. Arizona gift-wrapped another victory for the Vikings, who are 11th in net EPA. They should be 4-3 or so; not 6-1. If they were 4-3, I don’t think they’d be 3.5-point road favorites at 4-4 Washington.

The Redskins, meanwhile, have won three in a row, thanks to superior quarterback play. Heinicke can make use of his receivers, who have an excellent advantage against Minnesota’s poor secondary. Washington also has a talented pass rush and strong run defense that can slow down the Vikings enough to give it a chance to pull the upset.

I really don’t see much of a difference between these teams to warrant a 3.5-point spread in Minnesota’s favor. These teams are eight spots apart in net EPA in the past six weeks, and that’s not fully taking into account the upgrade from Wentz to Heinicke. Furthermore, we’re getting four of the six primary key numbers, as well as both sides of three, by selecting the Redskins at +3.5. This will be a big play for me, as you might have suspected.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I haven’t seen any indication that this line will go to +3 or +4. If it’s the latter, I’ll consider locking this in soon.

SATURDAY NOTES: So much for locking this in at +3.5. The sharps bet this down to +3 before I noticed. The Vikings won’t have Dalvin Tomlinson, which is a big deal.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned, the sharps bet the Redskins down from +3.5 to +3, but you can still get +3.5 at -122 vig at Bookmaker. The three is worth it at that price.

Green Bay Packers (3-5) at Detroit Lions (1-6)
Line: Packers by 4. Total: 49.5.
Sunday, Nov. 6, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Everyone is going to be playing Aaron Rodgers and Romeo Doubs this week on DraftKings – remember to sign up for Stokastic for the greatest projections and ownership data with promo code WALTERFOOTBALL for 25 percent off – but I’m not sure this is good strategy, despite Detroit’s miserable defensive play.

Rodgers just hasn’t been himself this year. His ailing thumb has been a huge reason for his struggles, and his pedestrian receiving corps and struggling offensive line haven’t helped matters. Rodgers looked better in Buffalo – as did Doubs – but really only in garbage time when the Bills stopped giving 100-percent effort. I’m not sure that’ll translate into this game.

What will translate is the running game. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon had great success pounding the ball against Buffalo in the second half, which bodes well in this matchup. The Lions are miserable versus the rush, so the two Packer backs figure to have strong performances.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Packers won’t be the only team that runs very well. The Packers have struggled versus the rush for several seasons, and those problems will continue to fester in this matchup. Both D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams figure to thrive, provided that the former is healthier than he was last week.

The Lions having a functioning rushing attack will help tremendously because they went into a shell late versus the Dolphins when they were winning in the second half. This proved to be fatal for them because Miami is strong versus the run. The Packers are not. They’ll also be weaker over the middle of the field if De’Vondre Campbell misses this game with an injury he suffered in Buffalo.

And yes, I expect the Lions to have the lead once again. Detroit’s great offensive line will be able to neutralize Green Bay’s pass rush. The Packers blitz often, but Jared Goff has handled the blitz well this year. Versus the blitz, Goff is 47-of-71 for 635 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. The three picks aren’t great, but the 66.2 completion percentage and 8.9 YPA dwarf his non-blitz numbers.

RECAP: Did you know that every team the Lions have played this year is currently .500 or better? That won’t be the case after this week because the Packers will be 4-5 even if they win. Still, you could say this is Detroit’s easiest game since its Week 2 battle against the Redskins.

The Lions haven’t just gotten unlucky with their schedule; they easily could have prevailed the past two weeks. Remember, they would have gone up 13-10 with 10 minutes remaining in Dallas had Jamaal Williams not fumbled at the 1-yard line in a game that saw Amon-Ra St. Brown leave with a concussion. Last week, the Lions were up by double digits for a big chunk of the game. They were so close to scoring a touchdown to take the lead in the fourth quarter. Given that they also would have prevailed over Minnesota had St. Brown and Swift not gotten hurt, there’s a reality in which they are 4-3 right now, and if that were the case, they’d be favored.

Even still, this line is incorrect. The Packers stink. In the past six weeks, they’re eighth-worst in the NFL in net EPA. Their offense ranks 24th, so I don’t see how they’ll fully take advantage of Detroit’s defense. The defense, meanwhile, is 19th, but will be worse if Campbell misses action with his knee injury.

I think the case could be made that the Lions are the better team if Campbell is sidelined. If not, these squads are very close, which is why I projected Detroit -1 to be the correct line. If I’m right, we’re getting so much line value with the home dog. We’re also receiving wins with four of the six primary key numbers. In case you couldn’t tell, this is a huge play for me.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread moved from +3 to +3.5 because of the T.J. Hockenson trade. Tight ends don’t really move the needle for me, so I’m happy to now be getting the hook with the Lions.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Lions will likely be getting three defensive players back from injury: DeShon Elliott, Mike Hughes and Charles Harris. This means their stop unit won’t be epically bad. Meanwhile, the Packers won’t have De’Vondre Campbell and might be without David Bakhtiari. I think we’re finally ready for the 2022 Lions to have their breakout game! I’m actually going to lock this in now just in case people realize how injured the Packers are. I’m also betting the moneyline.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s sharp money coming in on the Packers on Sunday morning, likely because David Bakhtiari and Allen Lazard will play after being questionable heading into this game. However, the Lions are getting some injured players back as well. I’m upset I locked this in early, but I’m still very confident in Detroit.

Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) at Atlanta Falcons (4-4)
Line: Chargers by 2.5. Total: 49.5.
Sunday, Nov. 6, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers can’t quite get both star receivers on the field for a full game. Keenan Allen got hurt in Week 1, while Mike Williams suffered an injury prior to the bye. It’ll happen at some point, but Allen and Williams once again won’t play together because Williams will miss this game.

Still, you have to like the Chargers’ chances of moving the chains against Atlanta. The Falcons’ secondary has been miserable this year, especially in the wake of A.J. Terrell’s injury. There’s a chance Terrell could return this week, but he has not played well, likely because he has been hobbled. Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen figure to abuse Atlanta’s secondary regardless of Terrell’s status. The Falcons have the worst pressure rate in the NFL, so Herbert will have all the time he needs.

The Falcons happen to be better against the run than the pass, so Austin Ekeler won’t have a huge game as a rusher. That said, Ekeler will continue to dominate in the middle of the field, especially against Atlanta’s linebacking corps.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons won’t be able to stop Herbert, Allen and Ekeler when they have possession, but perhaps they can make it so the trio doesn’t see the field very often. They can do this by dominating with their rushing attack.

The Falcons run the ball well with Caleb Huntley, Tyler Allgeier and Marcus Mariota. As it so happens, the Chargers have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The Falcons will be able to eat up the clock with their rushing attack, keeping Herbert and company off the field. This could frustrate Herbert, who might try to do a bit too much when he has possession.

Atlanta should have success throwing as well. The Chargers’ pass defense has been a bottom-10 unit since losing Joey Bosa. J.C. Jackson will now be sidelined as well. I love Kyle Pitts’ matchup, as he’ll attempt to replicate what Greg Dulcich accomplished against this defense during the Week 6 Monday night affair.

RECAP: I’d like the Chargers in this spot if they were healthy. That’s not the case, however, as they are missing several key players. Williams, Rashawn Slater, Bosa, and Jackson are all key players whose absences have made the team worse. It’s truly remarkable how bad the Chargers are metrics-wise, as they are ninth-worst in net EPA since Week 4. The Falcons are several spots ahead of them!

Then again, when you think back to some of the Chargers’ results since these injuries have transpired, you’ll realize that this isn’t as much of a surprise as initially believed. Since beating the hapless Texans, the Chargers averted a loss to the Browns because of a missed field goal, then snuck by the Broncos in overtime despite Russell Wilson being unable to move late in the game because of a hamstring injury. The Chargers were then blown out at home by the Seahawks. I’m not a huge fan of the Falcons, but who are the Chargers to be favored by three on the road?

Besides, Atlanta’s offense seems to match up well against the Chargers. All the Falcons want to do is run the ball, and the Chargers are horrendous against the run. Thus, Atlanta should be able to control this game and potentially pull the upset.

I’m willing to bet a few units on the Falcons. In addition to the matchup edge and incorrect spread, we’re also getting three wins and a push with four of the six primary key numbers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Keenan Allen missed Wednesday’s practice amid reports that his hamstring had gotten worse during the bye. The Chargers sound like they’ll be without their top two receivers, as well as their left tackle and All-Pro pass rusher. Why are they road favorites again?

SATURDAY NOTES: Keenan Allen is out, as are Mike Williams, Joey Bosa, Rashawn Slater, and J.C. Jackson. The Chargers are the ninth-worst team in EPA since Week 4, and even Atlanta ranks better. The Falcons should be favored, but name recognition has the Chargers at -3 on the road. I’m going to lock this in now before the sharps jump on the Falcons. I’ll also be betting the moneyline.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I made the mistake of locking in the Lions early, but I was right to lock in the Falcons because the sharps have brought this line down to +2.5. I’m not seeing any viable +3 lines anywhere.

Carolina Panthers (2-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-4)
Line: Bengals by 7.5. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Nov. 6, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: It’s Halloween, and my sister starred in a four-minute short horror film. I’ll let you guess which one she is:



I enjoyed it, though as a fat man, I can say that the scariest part was that the delicious pizza was never eaten.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals were a huge disappointment Monday night. They failed to score a single point until garbage time. Joe Burrow missed Ja’Marr Chase, but it was the Cleveland pass rush that gave him plenty of trouble.

Burrow will be in for a tough situation once again this week. The Panthers, with Brian Burns, have a similar pressure rate compared to Cleveland, and they have plenty of talented defensive backs who can tie up Burrow’s “lesser” receivers.

Meanwhile, the Bengals will continue to struggle to run the ball with Joe Mixon. Despite battling Cleveland’s poor run defense on Monday night, Mixon couldn’t get anything on the ground, so he’ll once again fail to produce in a much tougher matchup.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Adding injury to insult, the Bengals suffered some injuries during their blowout loss. Trey Hendrickson was removed from the game with a back injury, and making matters worse, top cornerback Chidobe Awuzie tore his ACL. Eli Apple was also out, so it’s no wonder the Bengals couldn’t stop the Browns.

With a diminished pass rush and secondary, I love Carolina’s chances of moving the chains consistently. Phillip Walker has been a big upgrade over Baker Mayfield; he’s 35th in EPA per play, which puts him in the same realm as Mac Jones and Kenny Pickett. Mayfield, conversely, was second-to-last, finishing ahead of only Joe Flacco. It’s no coincidence that D.J. Moore has reemerged since Walker replaced Mayfield. Walker should continue to have success against a declining pass defense.

The Bengals are also woeful when it comes to stopping the run, thanks to multiple injuries on the defensive line. This bodes well for D’Onta Foreman, who has enjoyed two big performances in the past couple of weeks.

RECAP: Burrow has a great track record coming off a loss, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll do well in this game. He’s a big favorite, so he could win without covering, but more importantly, he just endured a blowout defeat on Monday night. Teams that suffer blowout losses on Monday night generally do poorly the following week because they don’t have the needed time to make adjustments (41-58 ATS since 2000). Obviously, there are exceptions like the Patriots last week, who didn’t really need to make adjustments. But given Chase’s absence, some new injuries, and the team’s inability to stop the run, I’d say the Bengals need as much time as possible to correct things.

The Bengals will battle the Panthers, so it may not be the toughest matchup. However, Carolina has a solid stop unit, ranking 13th in defensive EPA. They have the personnel to get after the quarterback, ranking around the same range as the Browns in regard to pressure rate. They’re also terrific against the run, so the Bengals will have to be one-dimensional without their top receiver.

Furthermore, the Bengals do not deserve to be 7.5-point favorites with all of their new injuries, especially on a short week. The Panthers aren’t as bad as people think they are, so I believe they’ll be competitive once again. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if they pull the upset, so I’ll gladly take the points on a huge wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Eli Apple returned to practice Wednesday, but Mike Hilton was absent. Hilton is even more important than Apple, so this is another injury that will harm the Bengals.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bengals will be down three of their top four cornerbacks unles Tre Flowers can make a miraculous recovery after missing practice all week. They are so banged up, they don’t deserve to be favored by a touchdown. If I find a clean +7.5, I will bet it immediately. The best +7.5 I see is at BetUS for -115 vig.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tre Flowers is out, so the Bengals are down three of their top four cornerbacks, with the lone healthy player being Eli Apple. Yuck! The best +7.5 I see is for -120 at Bookmaker, so I’ll just settle for the +7 -105, which is available at some sportsbooks. The sharps were on Carolina earlier in the week, but not at +7.

Las Vegas Raiders (2-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6)
Line: Raiders by 2.5. Total: 48.
Sunday, Nov. 6, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



Oh, and my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: It’s hard to believe that the Raiders scored no points last week. There were reasons for a low output, which I’ll discuss in a bit, but it’s still shocking that they failed to put anything on the scoreboard against a Saints defense that had been so poor against the pass heading into Week 8.

This isn’t a difficult matchup by any means, so Derek Carr will have a chance to bounce back. The Jaguars rank slightly below average against the pass with a mediocre pass rush, so Carr should have enough time to connect with Davante Adams, who shockingly logged just one reception last week.

Josh Jacobs should also thrive. Jacobs didn’t have much of a chance to run last week because of the constant deficit, though he ripped off an 18-yard burst in which he broke three tackles, He should do well versus the Jaguars, who are also below average against the run.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence figures to have a great performance, at least on paper. The Raiders have some glaring problems in their secondary, as demonstrated by their inability to stop Davis Mills and Andy Dalton the past two weeks.

Lawrence is much more talented than those two quarterbacks, but it’s just not translating into real action. Lawrence makes some great throws, then is guilty of some horrendous passes at times. He also makes poor decisions on occasion, like his miserable interception at the goal line versus Denver. I also can’t really get behind Doug Pederson’s coaching either. Pederson is much better than Urban Meyer, but only by default. It doesn’t appear as though Lawrence is developing under Pederson.

At any rate, Travis Etinne’s outlook is bright, at least. We all just saw Alvin Kamara dominate the Raiders as both a rusher and a receiver, so Etienne could have similar success.

RECAP: I’m surprised that the public is betting the Raiders after what happened last week. They scored absolutely no points against the Saints. Then again, who really wants to bet on a team on a five-game losing streak?

I could be wrong, but I believe the Raiders failed to score because they were dealing with an illness that wrecked the locker room, with 15 players being infected. That would explain how lifeless they looked. If I’m right, the Raiders will put forth a much better effort in this game.

I’m not crazy about the Raiders because we aren’t getting the best line value, but I’m willing to bet them for a couple of units. It’ll feel good to be fading the Jaguars for the first time in a while. They’re poorly coached, and their only covers this year have been against the injury-ravaged Colts and Chargers in Weeks 2 and 3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Davante Adams was limited in Wednesday’s practice with an illness. However, he was the only Raider with an illness designation, so I expect them to play much better in last week’s embarrassing loss. I’m moving this to three units.

SATURDAY NOTES: Davante Adams was full in practice on Thursday and Friday, so apparently, the illness isn’t a factor anymore. The Raiders should bounce back and cover this suppressed spread. I’m bumping this up to four units. That said, I’m putting the Jaguars in a teaser with the Seahawks and Saints, hoping to middle the Baltimore-New Orleans game.

SATURDAY NOTES II: I’m going to lock in the Raiders. This line has risen to -2.5, and the vig has risen in many sportsbooks. We can still get -2.5 -108 at FanDuel.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It wasn’t completely necessary to lock in the Raiders, though the -108 vig is gone. The best line is the regular -2.5 -110 at Bookmaker. There’s a bit of sharp action on the Raiders, but not very much.