NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2022

Seattle Seahawks (5-3) at Arizona Cardinals (3-5)
Line: Cardinals by 2. Total: 49.
Sunday, Nov. 6, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’re unaware of this, you can publish your own articles on this Web site and have them promoted via Twitter, Facebook and this page! Check out our Open Rant feature, where articles get promoted all the time. Some readers’ articles have gotten more than 3,000 views (one even had 100,000!), so if you want to get your opinion heard, here’s a great way for you to do so!

Some recent Open Rant articles:

Reader: I’m in on Jalen Hurts

Reader NFL Record Predictions, Simplified

Reader 2022 Record Predictions

Reader 2022 NFL Predictions

Reader 2022 NFL Draft Re-Grades

If you want to create NFL Mock Drafts and NBA Mock Drafts, we have you covered as well. Check out the Mock Draft Builder. Some mocks on here have gotten more than 6,000 views!

ARIZONA OFFENSE: I loved the Cardinals early last week. I locked in my pick, but had some regrets Sunday morning when it was announced that D.J. Humphries would be sidelined. With Humphries out, the Cardinals would be down four starting offensive linemen. They couldn’t overcome the injuries, as Kyler Murray failed to engineer one of his patented fourth-quarter comeback drives.

It’s unclear if the Cardinals will have more blockers available this week. I never imagined that they would need them in this matchup, but the Seahawks have sported a solid pressure rate this year. That would explain why they’ve been excellent against the pass, ranking seventh against it since Week 4.

Murray was one of the quarterbacks the Seahawks have stymied in recent weeks, but he is expected to perform on a superior level this week compared to his output in the first meeting versus Arizona. That’s because DeAndre Hopkins will be available this time. Murray is a completely different quarterback with Hopkins on the field, though he would still need some returning offensive linemen to win this rematch.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Cardinals also possess a better pass defense than most think. Everyone recalls their dreadful performance against the Chiefs in Week 1, but Arizona was missing half of its roster in that game.

The Cardinals are ninth in pass defense EPA since Week 4, and they’re even better versus the run. They’ll be able to limit Kenneth Walker for the most part, forcing Geno Smith into throwing the ball frequently.

Arizona has done a good job of limiting No. 1 receivers, so that should continue. It won’t be a big deal if D.K. Metcalf isn’t productive, as the Cardinals ofen do a good job of smothering him. Conversely, Tyler Lockett typically has terrific performances against the Cardinals, at least prior to the matchup earlier this year. I expect Lockett to redeem himself.

RECAP: This spread opened Arizona -3, yet it has fallen off that key number because of sharp action on Seattle. I’m not sure why the pros love the Seahawks so much, but it could be a combination of things. It’s possible that they believe this spread was mispriced, given how great the Seahawks have been the past several weeks. Someone may also know that the Cardinals won’t have Humphries again. His absence last week was unfortunate for us because Murray didn’t have enough time in the pocket.

I’m going to tail the sharps on this game. However, I don’t see myself betting it because we’ve already lost all line value. I’d consider a small wager at +3, but not at +2.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: D.J. Humphries missed Wednesday’s practice, but he could easily return later in the week. Still, it’s not a good sign for Arizona.

SATURDAY NOTES: D.J. Humphries was DNP-DNP-limited in practice this week, so your guess is as good as mine as to whether he’ll play. Arizona’s three interior offensive linemen will be out once again, so Humphries’ absence will be more significant than usual, as we saw last week.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Sharp money continues to drag this line down in Seattle’s favor. Perhaps this is a sign that D.J. Humphries will be out again.

FINAL THOUGHTS: So much for Humphries being out. He’ll play, as will James Conner. Humphries is the important piece of news, however, so I wonder what the sharps are thinking after betting Seattle so aggressively. The best line is +2 at Bookmaker.

Los Angeles Rams (3-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)
Line: Buccaneers by 3. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Nov. 6, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Emmitt on the Brink was posted here. Now, Emmitt makes an appearance in my new book, How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen!

You can support the site by buying this book and spreading the word!



LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The big news concerning this game is that Cooper Kupp injured his ankle late versus the 49ers. The game was already well in hand, and there was barely any time remaining in regulation, so it’s unclear why Kupp was even playing. Sean McVay must have been using Kupp in his DraftKings lineup. If you want to be a better DFS player than McVay, sign up for Stokastic for the greatest projections and ownership data. Sign up with this link or use promo code WALTERFOOTBALL for 25% off.

It’s unclear if Kupp will play, but if he doesn’t, it would be difficult to envision how Matthew Stafford would succeed without him in most situations. Stafford utilizes Kupp so much, so he’d have to look elsewhere. The problem is that Allen Robinson can’t get open, while Tyler Higbee is banged up as well. Perhaps Van Jefferson would step up in his absence, but I’m skeptical.

That said, it’s not like the Rams have the toughest matchup. The Buccaneers had great defensive rankings to begin the year, but they’ve lost some key players to injuries. They’re missing multiple defensive backs, so the Rams’ lesser receivers could get open. Stafford will have more time than usual because Shaq Barrett is out for the year. The Buccaneers have also been terrible against the run, so perhaps Kyren Williams, whom McVay is eagerly awaiting to utilize, will have a nice performance.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Much like the defense, the Buccaneers’ scoring unit has some major problems. They haven’t been able to pass protect or run block effectively, especially in short-yardage situations. This will continue to be a problem against the Rams, as Aaron Donald figures to dominate the interior of the trenches.

Despite Donald’s presence, the Rams’ pass rush has been diminished this year as a result of Von Miller’s departure. However, the Rams are still a top-10 pass defense because of their excellent secondary play, so they have the horses to slow down the talented Buccaneer receivers.

The Rams aren’t as strong against the run, but they’re still above average in that regard. I don’t see Leonard Fournette suddenly succeeding on the ground, though he’ll have some nice gains as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: We’ll have to see what Kupp’s status is, but I suspect I’ll be on the Rams. The Buccaneers are a broken team because of their poor offensive line and horrendous coaching staff. The Rams haven’t been great either, but I at least trust McVay to have a good game plan prepared.

I also think this spread is too high. I made this line Tampa Bay -1.5. I know that isn’t a huge disparity with the actual spread, but with +3, we’re getting four of the six major key numbers, including a win and push with both sides of three.

My unit count will depend on Kupp’s status, as well as the corresponding line movement. Check back later, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Cooper Kupp missed Wednesday’s practice. He’s expected to play, but I’d like to see him put in some practices before I bet the Rams.

SATURDAY NOTES: Cooper Kupp had a full practice Friday, which is encouraging. Unfortunately, the Buccaneers are getting a couple of cornerbacks from injury (Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting), so this isn’t the advantage I thought it would be for the Rams. It’s not a guarantee Kupp will be 100 percent, so I’m going to lay off this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Still no interest. Maybe we’ll have a surprise inactive, but I don’t see myself betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’d consider being on the Rams if I knew Cooper Kupp were healthy, but he’s a question mark. Perhaps that’s why the sharps have stayed away from this game. I am not betting either side.

Tennessee Titans (5-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)
Line: Chiefs by 12.5. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Nov. 6, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Lonely Duck Man. Read about one of the weirdest conversations I’ve ever had.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: I’ve looked for news on Ryan Tannehill, but haven’t found any. It could be possible, however, that someone knows something because this line moved from -11 to -12.5 on Monday afternoon, and then -13 on Tuesday. Tannehill’s injury status could have leaked to someone with substantial money.

Malik Willis may have to start again, which is obviously not ideal. Not that Tannehill is great, or anything, but Willis is incredibly raw. He threw mostly checkdowns versus the Texans, with the exception being an interception on a late pass and an overthrow. He didn’t even have to deal with much of a pass rush, but things will be much different in this matchup because the Chiefs have the No. 2 pressure rate in the NFL.

The Titans, of course, will try to limit Willis’ attempts by pounding Derrick Henry repeatedly into the Chiefs’ defensive line. This is a strategy that worked for the Raiders in a Monday night affair when Josh Jacobs had a brilliant performance, so Henry could be used to frustrate Patrick Mahomes.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Something else that’ll frustrate Mahomes is Tennessee’s pass rush. The Titans are 12th in pressure rate, but don’t blitz very often. This is the key to disrupting elite quarterbacks, as they are at their worst when pressured frequently with just four players.

Tennessee’s ability to generate good pressure has allowed them to rank seventh in pass defense EPA. The Chiefs are no longer incredibly explosive with Tyreek Hill gone, so the Titans should be able to limit Mahomes, especially if they don’t give him very many opportunities.

One factor to consider is that the Chiefs traded for Kadarius Toney. The former first-round pick is an incredible athlete, so he should be able to provide a needed boost to Kansas City’s offense. However, he hasn’t been on the roster very long, so I wouldn’t expect him to be a major factor quite yet.

RECAP: It’s scary to bet on Willis because he’s so raw, so I wouldn’t go crazy with this side. However, I like the Titans. They have an incredible defense and strong rushing attack to limit the Chiefs. This spread is so large that there isn’t much margin for error for the Chiefs to cover, and it’ll be difficult for them to do so if Tennessee plays keep-away so well.

Throughout the week, you’ll hear how well Andy Reid fares after a bye. However, everyone knows this, and it’s been factored into the spread. You’re effectively paying -13 right now because he’s off the bye. What isn’t factored into this spread is that Mike Vrabel is incredible as an underdog. Vrabel is a fantastic coach, so it’s no surprise that he’s 19-7 against the spread as an underdog of three or more points.

Again, I’m not going nuts here because I don’t trust Willis, but this spread is too large for a quality team like the Titans, so I’ll be on the underdog.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ryan Tannehill practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday. It’s not yet clear if that means he’ll suit up, but this line hasn’t moved as if he will.

SATURDAY NOTES: We’re still waiting on Ryan Tannehill’s status; he was limited-DNP-limited in practice this week.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line is up to -13.5, so perhaps someone knows that Ryan Tannehill won’t play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ryan Tannehill is out, which has caused this spread to rise to -14. Fourteen is a third-tier key number, believe it or not, so I’ll side with Tennessee for two units, despite Malik Willis being under center. The best vig on +14 is -105 at BetUS. There was some sharp money on the Chiefs below -14.

Baltimore Ravens (5-3) at New Orleans Saints (3-5)
Line: Ravens by 2. Total: 47.
Monday, Nov. 7, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of New Orleans, where the Baltimore Colts take on the New Orleans Jaguars. Guys, it’s still Halloween time, so I don’t really care too much about this game. I got screwed out of trick-or-treating because I’ve been disowned by Mother and cannot go trick-or-treating by myself because it’s too scary, but I’m glad I can at least dress up in the best costume ever. Emmitt, why aren’t you dressed up in a costume?

Emmitt: Mark Reilly, how many time do I have to telleded you, I very unsecure about Halloween because I dress up in a jackoff lantern costume and everybody make fun of me. When I go trip or treat, I telleded everybody I a jackoff lantern and he make fun of me. That was the last time I went trip or treating.

Reilly: I’m sorry you have such bad memories of Halloween, Emmitt, because I always had great ones with me and Mother and New Daddy walking around trick-or-treating. Mother always made me wear a Disney princess costume so no one would kidnap me, and New Daddy would have to be wheeled around because he didn’t want to move. I remember it like it was yesterday, but it was just last year.

Jay Cutler: Oh man, that was a rough night. I had to get into a chair, it was so tiring.

Tollefson: You two are so lucky that I didn’t bump into you that night. I find that kidnapping Disney princesses is a great way to find female slaves who cook and clean the best. Disney princesses typically have animals and inanimate objects that help clean and cook for them, so they get things done more efficiently. I highly recommend kidnapping Disney princesses for you novices listening.

Reilly: Tolly, there are more important things to discuss. We’re having a costume contest here today. I was going to be a sexy bunny outfit after finding that on Google, but I decided to steal Charles Davis’ idea and wear a sexy Jalen Hurts costume. And by looking at things, it looks like I’m wearing the best sexy Jalen Hurts costume. Stupid Charles Davis isn’t wearing the correct jersey number. Suck it, Charles Davis!

Adam Schefter: Kevin, I have breaking news, and I just checked with Brad Holmes, and he gave me the green light to report this, even though he wasn’t wearing a triple mask. I am wearing a double mask, Kevin, but only because I couldn’t find my third mask. I give myself an 83-percent chance of contracting Covid, which means I will likely die, Kevin. But here’s the breaking news, Kevin. My sources tell me that Charles Davis will win this costume contest, Kevin. Back to you, Kevin!

Reilly: Yeah, right! No one has ever seen a sexy Jalen Hurts costume like I have, and I even showed you that idiot Charles Davis is wearing the wrong jersey. Besides, it’s not up to you, A**hole Schefter. Roger Goodell is deciding the winner!

Goodell: Greetings, fellow hu-man. I, also as a fellow hu-man, will decide contest using my sophisticated random number generator. I will now run the program to determine the winner of the Halloween costume contest. The winner of the Halloween costume contest is – randomizing – the hu-man whose designation is Emmitt Smith. Congratulations, fellow hu-man Emmitt Smith.

Reilly: What!? He doesn’t even have a costume! I’d like to file a protest!

Goodell: Your protest is currently being uploaded into the CPU. Processing…

Reilly: This is bulls**t. We need a new judge. What about you, Mr. President? Please be our new judge, and please give me the trophy!

Joe Biden: Halloween’s a great holiday. Almost my favorite and only behind Thanksgiving, Halloween, and Badakathcare. My favorite part about Thanksgiving is when all the boys and girls dress up in their outfits and come to my house and ask for candy. They ring the doorbell and say the thing. The thing about the trick. And then I look at the little princesses and tell them to follow me into the shower if they want to get the best candy. Ashley always got the best candy in the shower. I rubbed chocolate all over my hairy legs, and she enjoyed the chocolate, and I enjoyed sniffing her hair. I was 50, and she was nine.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong as usual, Sleepy Joe said he put chocolate on his hairy legs, which is wrong, excuse me, excuse me, I know the best flavor to put on hairy legs, believe me, no one knows more about this than I do, not even Diarrhea Face Matt Ryan, he’s a real diarrhea face, the worst diarrhea face anyone has ever seen, frankly, and excuse me, excuse me, I don’t call anyone diarrhea face, except for Matt Ryan, but Sleepy Joe says he puts chocolate on his hairy legs, and this is the most pathetic thing anyone has ever heard, it’s a disgrace and a huge disaster, and everyone agrees, and let me tell you what you put on your legs, no one knows this more than I do, OK, and frankly, it’s best to put vanilla extract on your hairy legs, it is unbelievable, and all the women will let you grab them by the, well, you know the word, if I say it, I’ll get into trouble again because the mainstream media are a bunch of liars, and frankly, no one should ever listen to them, only me because everyone knows I give the best news, much better than the fake mainstream media, I call them very fake mainstream media.

Wolfley: PRESIDENT TRUMP, YOU ARE RIGHT ABOUT VANILLA EXTRACT. I HAVE A BOTTLE OF VANILLA EXTRACT WITH LIPS, FIVE ELBOWS AND THREE BALL SACKS, AND I RUB IT ALL OVER MYSELF TO KEEP THE MOSQUITOES WITH LIPS AWAY.

Reilly: Guys, can we really cut to the chase here and find someone to judge our Halloween costume? I could really use the prize money to buy more Eagles bobbleheads so I can impress the ladies. New Daddy, can you be the judge? I know you’ll be impartial even though you love me.

Jay Cutler: Nah, that means I have to do something, and I’m still recovering from getting into the chair that one time.

Reilly: That was a year ago, New Daddy! Mr. Goodell, are you finally done looking at my protest?

Goodell: Affirmative, fellow hu-man with the designation Kevin Reilly. Our processor has decided to accept your protest, so I will now calculate a new winner of this holiday costume contest.

Reilly: Yes, it’s going to be me!

Goodell: The winner of the holiday costume contest is – randomizing – the hu-man whose designation is Emmitt Smith.

Reilly: NOOOO!!! IT’S ME! I’M TAKING THE TROPHY! I’M THE BEST DRESSED!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you think you’re the best dressed, Kevin, but it looks like I’m the best dressed, Kevin. You’re wearing a sexy Jalen Hurts costume, Kevin, but I’m wearing a sexy Nick Foles costume, Kevin. Nick Foles has the greatest wins in Philadelphia history, Kevin, so I’m wearing the best costume, Kevin. My costume includes a dirty-blond wig, Kevin. What do you think about the sexy leg hair, Kevin? Doesn’t need chocolate or vanilla extract, Kevin. How about the Philly Special call attached to my armband, Kevin? Look at my Lombardi Trophy, Kevin. Much better than your pathetic Jalen Hurts costume, Kevin.

Reilly: CHARLES DAVIS, I HATE YOU BECAUSE YOU’RE RIGHT, YOUR COSTUME IS SO MUCH BETTER THAN MINE, WHICH IS BULLS**T BECAUSE YOU’RE GOING TO GET ALL THE EAGLES BOBBLEHEADS AND IMPRESS THE LADIES! We’ll be back after this!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: This is a difficult matchup to handicap right now because it’s unclear who will be available for the Ravens. Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman and Gus Edwards all exited with injuries last Thursday night. Bateman will be sidelined, but if Andrews and Edwards end up being active, they may not be 100 percent, and we could see a repeat of what transpired versus the Buccaneers.

If the Ravens have their complete arsenal available, they should be able to consistently move the chains against New Orleans. The Saints just shut out the Raiders, but it’s likely that Las Vegas was hampered by the illness that spread through the locker room and infected 15 players. Prior to that result, New Orleans had struggled to stop the pass as a result of worse-than-expected pressure rate. Lamar Jackson will have plenty of time to find his targets.

The Saints are at least solid against the run, so that’ll bode well against Edwards or Kenyan Drake. The Ravens had struggled offensively prior to their matchup against the Buccaneers, so despite missing Andrews and Bateman, they were able to jumpstart their offense by pounding the ball against Tampa Bay. They won’t have as much success in this regard versus the Saints.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Ravens made a big change in their defense this week by acquiring Roquan Smith from the Bears (go here for my NFL Trade Grades.) They needed to make a move like this because they have allowed some big gains when defending the run. They rank 22nd in rush defense EPA during the past six weeks.

It’s unclear how quickly Smith will transition into Baltimore’s defense, but it’s unlikely he’ll be fully integrated by Monday night. This doesn’t bode well against Alvin Kamara, who is coming off a monster game versus the Raiders. It’s likely that Kamara repeats this performance, especially if Calais Campbell is out once again.

The Ravens also have issues stopping the pass because, like the Saints, they struggle to get to the quarterback with their seventh-worst pressure rate. Andy Dalton will be able to throw well out of favorable situations, and perhaps he’ll even have one of Michael Thomas or Jarvis Landry back to join Chris Olave.

RECAP: The Ravens were in a bit of a funk prior to beating the Buccaneers because they had several key injuries. Much of this had to do with Bateman’s injury. He’ll miss another game, and it’s unclear if Andrews will be available. Meanwhile, the Saints are underrated. They have endured some terrible turnover luck. They’re 3-5 right now, but they could easily be 6-2, or even 7-1.

With Bateman sidelined, I like the Saints a bit, and I’ll be more enthusiastic about them if Andrews is sidelined.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was going to bet a decent number of units on this game, but Jacob reminded me that Andy Dalton has a miserable record in primetime games. Dalton is 6-18 in primetime games, so that’s not something I want to back heavily.

SATURDAY NOTES: Mark Andrews, Gus Edwards, and Rashod Bateman are all out, which has dropped this spread to -2. I actually like the Ravens at this line now that we’re getting the three with them. Isaiah Likely and Kenyan Drake are fine replacements for Andrews and Edwards, respectively. Also, Andy Dalton has to win this game with his 6-18 record.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps continue to drag this line down to +1.5 in the Saints’ favor, probably because of Baltimore’s many injuries.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still torn on this game. I’d like the Saints if it weren’t for Andy Dalton’s abysmal primetime record. The sharps bet New Orleans at +3, but not anything below that. My only bet is a middle/hedge of an outstanding teaser. I have Saints +8.5 still remaining where I’m going to win 4.5 units if it hits, so I’m going to hedge with the -1.5 at Bookmaker so I can potentially middle and win lots of money.