NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2022

Tennessee Titans (4-2) at Houston Texans (1-4-1)
Line: Titans by 1. Total: 39.
Sunday, Oct. 30, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Ryan Tannehill beat the Colts by nine despite completing just 13 passes – how did they cover the -8.5 on the teaser, WTF – but he suffered an ankle injury at the end of the game. Malik Willis stepped onto the field for a bit, but Tannehill was able to return.

There might be a chance that Tannehill misses this game, so Willis could make his first NFL start. Willis has a ton of upside with both his arm and legs, but he’ll have a major challenge battling Lovie Smith’s defense. Smith doesn’t have the best talent at his disposal, but he’s a defensive mastermind who can confuse young quarterbacks. It seems likely that he’ll befuddle Willis.

Then again, none of this may matter because of Derrick Henry’s incredible matchup. The Texans are abysmal when it comes to stopping the run, so Henry could have his best performance of the year.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans should also have some success moving the chains on the ground. Dameon Pierce has enjoyed an excellent rookie campaign, and that should continue against a Tennessee defense that is only in the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping rushing attacks.

Pierce’s running will open opportunities for Davis Mills, who performed well last week through three quarters. The Titans have the 21st-ranked pressure rate in the NFL, so Mills could have some easy throws while enjoying a clean pocket. When facing no pressure this year, Mills has completed 67.1 percent of his passes. I expect Brandin Cooks to have a nice performance.

RECAP: This spread opened Tennessee -4, yet plummeted to -1.5. I wondered who in the world would spend so much money betting on the Texans until I realized that this spread movement was in reaction to the possibility that Tannehill could miss this game.

Given this line movement, I would guess that Tannehill will miss this game. I ordinarily like betting on good teams missing their starting quarterback, but I don’t think we can say the Titans are a good team. They have been outgained in every single contest this year. They are dead last in net yardage. They are 23rd in net EPA. I’m not confident that Willis can carry them to victory, though I’m not eager to jump on the Texans either.

If Tannehill plays, however, I’m more likely to bet on Houston at +4. The Texans tend to play the Titans well, and there’s appeal to getting four of the six major key numbers with Houston at that price. I would also enjoy fading an injured quarterback, which has a great track record of success.

We’ll have to wait for the Tannehill news to post an official pick. Check back later, or follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ryan Tannehill missed Wednesday’s practice, but he still has plenty of time to return and be cleared for this game. The Texans are going to be the other leg of my teaser.

SATURDAY NOTES: Two major pieces of injury news for the Titans: First, their best player, Jeffery Simmons, failed to practice all week. Second, Ryan Tannehill may not play after being downgraded in practice on Friday. If Tannehill starts, I like the Texans to cover as long as we’re getting +3 or more. If it’s Malik Willis, I would almost consider the Titans because they’ll have a more conservative game plan and just ram the ball down Houston’s throat.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Ryan Tannehill has been ruled out, so Malik Willis will start. The Texans are now favored by one. I like Tennessee at this number, as the Titans will ram the ball down Houston’s throat with both Derrick Henry and Willis. I won’t be betting this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Houston’s status as a favorite was short-lived, as the Titans are now favored. I’m not betting this game either way.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line has settled in at Tennessee -1, though if you like the Texans, you can get +1.5 at FanDuel. I still have no interest here, and the sharps haven’t been involved.

New York Giants (6-1) at Seattle Seahawks (4-3)
Line: Seahawks by 3. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Oct. 30, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants suffered a couple of major injuries versus the Jaguars, losing a pair of offensive linemen. Evan Neal and Ben Brederson both got hurt, so Daniel Jones will be down a pair of blockers. The silver lining is that Neal and Brederson were arguably the Giants’ worst starting blockers, though there could be some chemistry issues with the backups.

Another silver lining is that Jones may not face much pressure anyway. The Seahawks have the NFL’s 20th-ranked pressure rate. This is significant because Jones has been incredible when the pocket has been kept clean for him this year. He’s completing 72.4 percent of his passes on a 7.1 YPA under those circumstances. That’s incredibly impressive, given that he hasn’t operated with a No. 1 receiver for most of the season. Wan’Dale Robinson has apparently changed that.

Jones will obviously be able to scramble out of the rare occasions in which the Seahawks bring pressure. Of course, he could always get the ball to Saquon Barkley, who has an amazing matchup versus the Seahawks’ woeful run defense.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Kenneth Walker also has a fantastic matchup. The Giants have struggled against the run all year, and they would have allowed Travis Etienne to have a monstrous statistical performance had Etienne not fumbled the ball into the end zone during the opening half. Walker will also have plenty of opportunities to score.

Stopping Walker is one of two major problems the Giants defense has entering this game. The second is containing Geno Smith. I never thought I would write that sentence in 2022, but it’s true. The Giants blitz more than any other team in the NFL, and Smith is incredible versus the blitz. He’s completing 73 percent of his passes on a 7.2 YPA when blitzed.

The one glimmer of hope that the Giants have is that D.K. Metcalf may miss this game. Still, Smith will be able to distribute the ball to Tyler Lockett and Marquise Goodwin, who has played surprisingly well in brief action.

RECAP: The sportsbooks continue to misprice the Giants, according to the general public. They were three-point underdogs in Jacksonville, which shocked everyone. I think the ESPN viewers will be just as surprised to see this spread, though maybe not because the Seahawks are coming off a win versus the Chargers.

Yet, if you look at metrics, these lines are justified. The Giants are 12th in net EPA, while the Jaguars are eighth and the Seahawks are 10th. New York has gotten very lucky in its wins, while Jacksonville has been extremely unfortunate. However, there might be something to that, and it might have to do with the coaching. Brian Daboll appears to be a fantastic coach right now, while everyone in Philadelphia knows how dreadful Doug Pederson can be. It’s not a surprise that the Jaguars continue to blow games they should win.

I’m not a huge fan of Pete Carroll’s coaching either, so I think the Giants have the advantage in this regard. The problem is that Daboll has his work cut out for him, given that there are multiple injuries to the offensive line now, and we know how poorly Jones can play when he doesn’t have sufficient blocking. I don’t think it’ll be a factor in this matchup, but it remains to be seen how the blocking will look with two new starters.

That said, I’m still going to pick the Giants. I made this line Seattle -1, so I think the spread is a bit too high. We’re getting wins with three major key numbers and a push with a fourth. However, I’m not very interested in betting heavily on a team down multiple blockers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: D.K. Metcalf missed Wednesday’s practice, as expected. I’d be shocked if he played.

SATURDAY NOTES: D.K. Metcalf returned to a Friday practice, but on a limited basis. I still like the Giants either way, but less so if Metcalf can return.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: So, D.K. Metcalf is going to play somehow. I’m not sure how healthy he’ll be though. This line is begging to climb to -3.5 because of this news.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no -3.5, yet D.K. Metcalf will play. The best line is for positive vig at Bovada (+3 +105). I’ll be betting the Giants for three units. There’s no sharp action.

Washington Redskins (3-4) at Indianapolis Colts (3-3-1)
Line: Colts by 3. Total: 39.5.
Sunday, Oct. 30, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The big news concerning this game is that the Colts have decided to permanently bench Matt Ryan in favor of Sam Ehlinger. Ryan won’t even be the No. 2 quarterback, as those duties will go to Nick Foles. It’s a huge fall from grace for Ryan, though it’s deserved. He was completely reckless with the ball in most games this year. He single-handedly ruined my great teaser from last week, so I fully support the decision.

Ehlinger had a woeful 2021 preseason, but was much better this summer. He was incredibly accurate and even showed off his mobility on a 45-yard scramble. He has a great matchup against the Redskins, who haven’t been able to cover anyone all year. All of Indianapolis’ receivers and running backs have plus matchups.

The Redskins are better against the run than the pass, so they’ll be able to contain Jonathan Taylor. They also generate a healthy pass rush, so they’ll be able to get past the mediocre offensive line. This is where Ehlinger’s mobility will come in handy.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins also made a quarterback change last week, though their hand was forced in the wake of Carson Wentz’s injury. Still, Wentz’s horrendous decision-making really weighed down the team, so it’s no surprise that Taylor Heinicke was an improvement last week.

Heinicke figures to have another strong performance. Heinicke won’t face much pressure from a sub par Indianapolis pass rush, especially with Sam Cosmi back in the lineup. He’ll be able to get the ball to Terry McLaurin frequently, which is something Wentz was incapable of doing for some reason.

Heinicke will need to take command of the offense because the Redskins aren’t going to be able to run the ball that well. The Colts are typically stout versus the rush. This wasn’t the case last week, but it’s not like they’re battling Derrick Henry again.

RECAP: I was upset to see Ryan benched because I had interest in heavily betting the Redskins at +4. Ryan is a turnover machine, and Washington will continue to perform better with Heinicke at the helm. I thought there was good value with the +4, given that we were getting a win with four of the six major key numbers.

However, Ehlinger’s promotion changes everything. First of all, this line is now +3, so we’re not getting victories with the two prominent key numbers anymore. Second, we have no idea what to expect with Ehlinger. He sucked in the 2021 preseason, but was much better this August. He was deadly accurate, and we know he has mobility from his college days. Still, he has never attempted a pass in the regular season, so it’s tough to determine if his play in exhibition games will translate to real action.

I ordinarily like betting good teams with backup quarterbacks, but there are two things to consider in this regard. First, this is a benching, so it’s not like the Colts know they need to rally the troops and step up to help the backup. Second, I’m not convinced the Colts are a good team. They’re 28th in net EPA, they can’t get to the quarterback, and they struggle to pass block. With that in mind, I’m on the Redskins. This won’t be the huge bet I was anticipating, but I’m willing to wager up to three units on the Redskins.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Shaq Leonard practiced fully and wasn’t even listed on the practice report, so barring a setback, it would be shocking if he didn’t return. This downgrades the Redskins a little for me, so I’m dropping this to two units.

SATURDAY NOTES: We have a linebacker swap in this game. Shaq Leonard will return for the first time since Week 5, while Cole Holcomb, Washington’s best coverage linebacker, will be sidelined. That’s a huge deal against a team that will be running with its quarterback and utilizing its running backs and tight ends in the passing game. I like the Colts now. Their biggest problem has been Matt Ryan’s turnovers, but that won’t be an issue anymore. They’ll have success against a Redskin defense that’ll really miss Holcomb, whereas Indianapolis’ defense is going to be much better with Leonard.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The vig on the Colts -3 is low, so I wonder if we’ll be able to get a viable -2.5 prior to kickoff.

FINAL THOUGHTS: If there was any doubt, Shaq Leonard is finally active. The Redskins won’t have Cole Holcomb. As expected, there’s a viable -2.5, which is available for -118 vig at FanDuel. There’s no sharp action to note.

San Francisco 49ers (3-4) at Los Angeles Rams (3-3)
Line: Pick. Total: 42.
Sunday, Oct. 30, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers didn’t have a full game plan prepared for Christian McCaffrey, but the former Panther back saw the field early versus the Chiefs. Kyle Shanahan will have more prepared for McCaffrey this week, which will be a nice advantage in this game. The Rams are weaker to the run than the pass, so McCaffrey will be a welcome presence.

Jimmy Garoppolo is much better when the opposition is threatened by the run. He played well against the Rams the last time he battled them in what turned out to be a 24-9 victory. The Rams’ pass rush has been diminished this year with Von Miller gone, so Garoppolo will continue to be well protected.

Something else to consider is that Garoppolo will have Trent Williams shielding his blind side this week. That wasn’t the case in the first matchup with the Rams, so Garoppolo will have even more time in the pocket. He’ll also be able to throw more often to George Kittle, who no longer has to block as much in the wake of Williams’ return.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: While Garoppolo will enjoy great pass protection, Matthew Stafford won’t experience such luxury. The Rams, who already had offensive line woes, lost left tackle Joe Noteboom just prior to the bye.

This, of course, will be a huge problem for Stafford in this matchup. The 49ers have one of the top pass rushes in the NFL, and Nick Bosa is going to have a field day against the Rams’ backup tackle. The pressure Stafford will see will possibly create turnovers, which is what occurred in the previous matchup.

The 49ers have some injury issues in the secondary, so Cooper Kupp will make some nice plays, and the Rams won’t be shut out as a result. However, the severe blocking issues will capsize Los Angeles’ chances.

RECAP: The 49ers already owned the Rams, having won seven of the previous eight matchups, with the only exception being the NFC Championship, which featured a dropped interception by a San Francisco safety late in the game. San Francisco continued to dominate Los Angeles with a victory earlier in the year, and I don’t see why that wouldn’t continue.

I’m going to have a few units on the 49ers. They have such a big advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and yet we’re still getting a cover if they win by three, which might be the most likely result of this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Deebo Samuel didn’t practice Wednesday with a hamstring, and it seems like Kyle Juszczyk may not play. I still like the 49ers, but this is obviously not ideal.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both Deebo Samuel and Kyle Juszczyk are out, which is why this line has dropped to a pick ’em. Meanwhile, the Rams will have Brandon Allen available. This is discouraging, but I still like the 49ers, though less so than before.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have been on the Rams, perhaps because of the 49ers’ injuries. I’m less enthusiastic about this game than I was earlier in the week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, the sharps have been betting the Rams. I like the 49ers, though Jason Verrett is a surprise inactive. You can bet both sides of one at -105. Bovada has a San Francisco -1 -105 line, while FanDuel has Los Angeles -1 -105 available.

Green Bay Packers (3-3) at Buffalo Bills (5-1)
Line: Bills by 10.5. Total: 47.
Sunday, Oct. 30, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It’s hard to believe, but Aaron Rodgers is a double-digit underdog for the first time in his career. Not that this spread isn’t warranted; given Green Bay’s struggles recently, it’s completely justified. The Packers have lost outright to the Giants, Jets and Redskins in consecutive weeks. Those are middling teams, at best. The Bills are a huge step up in competition.

I’d normally like Rodgers to be up for the challenge, but unless he makes a miraculous recovery, it’s hard to imagine being competitive in this matchup. Not only will he be battling one of the best defenses in the NFL with a miserable receiving corps; he has to continue to throw with a bothersome thumb. Rodgers was seen holding his thumb in pain throughout last week’s game. I suppose it’s possible that Rodgers will make a recovery, and his thumb will be fine Sunday night, but that seems unlikely.

I don’t see how the Packers will have consistent offensive success against the Bills with Rodgers nursing an ailing thumb. Buffalo’s pass rush will swarm Rodgers, who hasn’t been protected very well lately, especially with David Bakhtiari missing last week’s game.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Green Bay’s offensive failures can be explained by Rodgers’ thumb injury and the diminished receiving corps, but the defense has been a huge disappointment. The Packers were expected to possess one of the top defenses in the NFL after using two first-round selections on that side of the ball, but they’re just 15th in defensive EPA since Week 2.

The Packers’ pass rush has been a massive disappointment in particular. They have the 19th-ranked pressure rate in the NFL, and because they can’t get to the quarterback often, they tend to blitz frequently. This should benefit a great quarterback like Josh Allen, who will have an easier time finding his talented weapons.

Green Bay also happens to be horrendous when it comes to stopping the run. The Bills usually don’t rely on the rush, but they’ll be able to nurse a huge lead late in the game because of the matchup.

RECAP: I don’t see any incentive to bet this game. The advance spread was Green Bay -8, so it seems like we’re getting nice line value in the wake of the spread moving three points. Getting double digits and amazing line value with Rodgers seems like a no-brainer – until you remember that he’s not healthy at all.

If Rodgers had a completely healthy thumb, I would strongly consider betting the Packers because the insane value. Rodgers is still a great quarterback, and no matter how bad his receiving corps is, he shouldn’t be this big of an underdog, even against the best team in the NFL. However, Rodgers can’t get everything on his throws. The Packers even eschewed a Hail Mary try at the end of last week’s loss. I can’t get behind betting a quarterback with a serious thumb injury, so I’ll pass on this and even side with Buffalo for office pool purposes.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Aaron Rodgers continued to miss practice with his thumb injury. It’s a shame because the Packers would be a great value bet if Rodgers were healthy.

SATURDAY NOTES: Aaron Rodgers’ thumb will be healthy one of these weeks, and I’d rather be early than late. Regardless, I expect the Packers to have the best game plan prepared, so they’ll try to ram the ball down Buffalo’s throat. I think the Bills can be beaten with a power running game, so if the Packers are successful in running, they can keep Josh Allen off the field. The Bills have had two weeks to celebrate their win over the Chiefs, so I don’t expect an A+ performance from them in this game. This spread is too high – it moved from the advance line of +8 – so I’m inclined to switch my pick and even bet on Green Bay.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have bet the Packers down to +10.5. I can’t say I’m surprised by this.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t know what Indian burial ground I urinated on after Week 4, but this s**t luck we’ve been having the past four weeks has been ridiculously frustrating. I don’t even know what to say anymore. The Packers seem like a good play, especially with David Bakhtiari set to return to action. The sharps are betting Green Bay as well. The best line I see is +10.5 -110 at FanDuel.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-3) at Cleveland Browns (2-5)
Line: Bengals by 3. Total: 45.
Monday, Oct. 31, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Ohio, where the Cleveland Clowns take on the Cincinnati Bungles. Guys, no one cares about this game except the hicks living in the city of Ohio, so let’s discuss something more important, which is Halloween. I want to dress up in the coolest Halloween costume ever. Does anyone have any ideas for me? It needs to be better than Charles Davis’ Halloween costume.

Emmitt: Gardner Reilly, I still trying to take my job seriousnessly because I want to get rehiredness by USPN. I also not a very big fan of Halloween. When I was a kid, which probably was like 50 month ago, I dress up like a jackoff lantern. I show up to everyone house and say the magic phrase, “Trip or Treat, I am a jackoff lantern, please give me some candy,” but all everybody do was laugh at myselves, so now I feeling very unsecure about Halloween.

Reilly: Emmitt, that’s because you had a stupid costume like jackoff lantern. You need a cool costume, like the one I’m going to wear!

Tollefson: Kevin, you’re an idiot. Jackoff lantern sounds incredible. I’ll wear one, so all of my female slaves will have to pleasure me, their jackoff lantern leader. This is much like every night in my manor, except I’m not dressed up like a jackoff lantern.

Reilly: Tolly, I don’t have the allowance money to buy female slaves like you, so that costume isn’t going to work. While you were talking, I Googled “coolest Halloween costumes.” The top thing to come up for me was a sexy bunny rabbit costume. I didn’t think that would be the coolest costume, but if Google says it’s true, then it’s true. I’ll be a sexy bunny rabbit, and I’ll definitely outshine Charles Davis. Take that, Charles Davis!

Goodell: Greetings, fellow hu-man. I, also as a fellow hu-man, love to partake in hu-man holidays. I also wear a costume for my favorite holiday, which is – running random number generator program – Earth Day. Do you, fellow hu-man, also wear costumes on Earth Day?

Reilly: No one cares about stupid Earth Day! I can’t wait to get my sexy bunny rabbit costume!

Adam Schefter: Kevin, I have breaking news, and I just checked with Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, and he gave me the green light to report this, even though he wasn’t wearing a mask, putting me in danger of contracting Covid. Kevin, my sources tell me that there is a homosexual NFL announcer, and he has outed himself with a queer Halloween costume, Kevin. Back to you, Kevin.

Reilly: Ha! I knew there were some fruity NFL announcers. It’s probably Charles Davis! Definitely not me, and definitely not Joe Biden because I saw him go into the shower with a girl, who had just gotten home from arts and crafts club.

Joe Biden: Now listen here, you lyin’ jackrabbit midshipman! When I was visiting the arts and crafts class, we were listening to music on the record player, I mean VHS. Then Sally, I come to her and ask if she wants to touch my hairy legs in the shower. I then say, Ashley, get in the damn shower before I knock some sense into Hunter. Sally then asks, “How’s the economy?” and I thought this was rude because I was eating my choco-choco chip ice cream. The economy is great, fat! I’m buying oil cans by the dozens from Libya. Don’t listen to Putin because he’ll tell you otherwise. Putin doesn’t even know what he’s talking about, he doesn’t take showers with girls from the arts and crafts school, and that’s what I call nexnileresecent. Where’s my sister Jill, she knows what I’m talking about. Jill’s too old to shower with. Not the case when I was 30 and she was 12, believe that, Jack!

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong as usual, it is impossible that Joe was 30 and Jill was 12 because, believe me, I did the math, and no one is better at math than me, believe me, I spoke to some of the best scientists, I know all the greatest scientists, of course, and frankly, they don’t know math as good as me, believe me, excuse me, excuse me, they’re great at math, but not as great at math as me, that’s what I was told anyway, and when I did the math, I saw that Sleepy Joe was 79 and Jill, I call her Rhino Face Jill, excuse me, excuse me, that’s her name, Rhino Face, and no, I don’t call all women Rhino Face, just Jill, believe me, excuse me, excuse me, and frankly, Rhino Face Jill is 71, which is a difference of many, many years, and I’ll do the math on this later, and believe me, it’ll be some of the greatest math anyone has ever seen, not the total disgrace math that Sleepy Joe would do, it’s great math, not sure the number yet, but it’ll be great math, frankly, and I know that it’s many, many years between Sleepy Joe and Rhino Face Jill.

Wolfley: PRESIDENT TRUMP, MAY I SUGGEST MY FRIEND MR. CALCULATOR TO HELP? HE IS A CALCULATOR WITH FIVE ELBOWS, THREE LIPS AND A SANDWICH.

Reilly: Guys, shut up already. Now that I’ve picked out my costume, I need someone to pay for it. New Daddy, will you pay for my Halloween costume, pretty, pretty please?

Jay Cutler: Yeah, sure.

Reilly: REALLY!? YAY YAY YAY YAY YAY!!! THANK YOU FOR PAYING FOR MY SEXY BUNNY RABBIT COSTUME, NEW DADDY!

Jay Cutler: Oh nah, I was on the phone ordering food, and they asked me if I wanted fries with my sandwich. I’m not paying for s**t.

Reilly: But New Daddy, I need a cooler costume than Charles Davis!!!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you think you’re going to wear a cooler costume than me, Kevin. Sounds like you’re greatly mistaken, Kevin. You don’t know what I’m going to wear, Kevin. What do you think if I wear a sexy vampire costume, Kevin? How about a sexy devil costume, Kevin? What are your thoughts on a sexy referee costume, Kevin? Do you have a reaction to a sexy nurse costume, Kevin? What do you say to a sexy police officer costume, Kevin? And I need to ask about a sexy Jalen Hurts costume, Kevin?

Reilly: NO, CHARLES DAVIS, I WANT TO DRESS UP LIKE A SEXY JALEN HURTS, YOU A**HOLE! I HATE YOU AND HOPE YOU DIE IN A FIRE! We’ll be back after this!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: It seemed like Joe Burrow would have a chance to challenge Norm Van Brocklin’s single-game passing yards record last week, but couldn’t quite reach 500 yards, which still would have been 54 yards shy of the mark. Burrow, however, had a very easy matchup that he easily exploited, and it stemmed from the Falcons not being able to pressure him at all.

The Browns will likely have a similar challenge. Cleveland isn’t dead last in pressure rate like the Falcons, but they’re ninth-worst in that regard. The Browns also blitz at a medium rate, which bodes poorly against Burrow, who eats up the blitz.

The one thing the Bengals didn’t do well last week was run the ball with Joe Mixon. That could change in this contest, as the Browns have been miserable versus rushing attacks this year.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Speaking of not being able to stop the run, the weakness of the Bengals is their inability to contain rushing attacks. This was not a factor last week against the Falcons because of an early lead. Atlanta engineered one successful drive where it ran exclusively out of the I-formation, but the Falcons couldn’t maintain this production because of the constant deficit.

The Browns obviously run better than the Falcons with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The Browns won’t abandon the run either, so Cleveland being able to keep Burrow off the field might be the only way it can prevent the Bengals from scoring tons of points.

Cleveland will need Chubb and Hunt to dominate because the Bengals generate good pressure on the quarterback. The Browns’ offensive line hasn’t performed well of late, thanks to Wyatt Teller’s injury and Jedrick Wills’ surprising struggles. The Bengals don’t blitz much either, which has to upset Jacoby Brissett, who handles the blitz well.

RECAP: I liked the Bengals a bit when I saw this spread open at -3. The sharps felt similarly because they bet Cincinnati up to -3.5. With this new line, I don’t like the Bengals as much. I’ll still pick them because I like how they match up against Cleveland, but -3.5 is the worst line you could ever bet because close games are often decided by three, and we’re not getting either three with this spread.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is all over the place. Westgate has dropped this to -3 -120, while BetUS has -4 -105 listed. I don’t know what to make of this.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ja’Marr Chase is out, but the Browns have several injuries. They’re down Wyatt Teller, David Njoku, Denzel Ward, Anthony Walker, and likely Greedy Williams and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. I don’t think there’s a lot of value with the -3 line though.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: No change. The sharps bet the Browns at +3.5, but not at +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, the sharps bet the Browns at +3.5, but not +3. I have very slight interest in the Bengals at -3 -120 (Bookmaker). I’ll bet a unit on them.