NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2022

Washington Redskins (1-4) at Chicago Bears (2-3)
Line: Redskins by 1. Total: 38.
Thursday, Oct. 13, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 5 Analysis: It was nice while it lasted. We had monster weeks for the entire month of September, but Week 5 was our first loser. And boy was it a loser! We gave back nearly half of our gains, thanks to good teams blowing leads throughout Sunday. I’ll continue to break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Packers, 3 units (loss): The Packers led 17-3 and 20-10, but had a second-half collapse for the ages. Making matters worse, I lost my teaser because Green Bay suffered an outright defeat. The teaser would have cashed because the Redskins stayed within nine, and then we could have hedged against the Chiefs -1, which pushed. We would have made so much money Monday night.

Buccaneers, 5 units (loss): The Buccaneers led 21-0, but took their foot off the gas, allowing the Falcons to get a bogus back-door cover at the end. Even Devin White admitted that the players stopped trying. Knowing that, can I send an invoice to the Buccaneers to recoup my losses?

Redskins, 4 units (loss): Maybe I should have known not to bet the Redskins heavily, but they outgained Tennessee, 385-241, and averaged 6.6 yards per play compared to 3.9 for Tennessee. The Redskins had the ball at the Tennessee 2-yard line to win the game, but Carson Wentz threw an interception to lose it for us.

Jets, 3 units (win): It was nice to get one win in the early-afternoon slate. I will say that we got lucky here because Teddy Bridgewater suffered a concussion on his first offensive snap.

Browns, 4 units (loss): The Browns, who blew a 14-0 lead, kicked a field goal to win and cover for us, but their prized rookie kicker missed badly. Nice draft pick, a**holes!

Lions, 3 units (loss): This was a terrible wager. I got excited when I saw that Amon-Ra St. Brown was playing, but never considered that he would be limited.

Panthers, 4 units (loss): Another bad pick. I think my arguments for the Panthers made sense, but this was just such a mismatch. I will note that this is the beginning of a trend. This resembled my stupid Redskins vs. Cowboys pick from Week 4. While we got unlucky in other games, this is something I’ll need to correct. Perhaps I should have a “do not bet” list for truly horrible teams unless the spread is completely out of control.

Eagles, 3 units (loss): The Eagles blew a 14-0 lead when two of their offensive linemen got hurt. Both eventually returned, but it was too late by then.

Bengals, 3 units (win): It was nice to get a win at the end of a truly dreadful day.

Before I begin, I should note that we have some new features, including WalterFootball Premium. We’ve gotten lots of complaints about the ads over the years, but there hasn’t been anything I can do about them because I’ve needed the ad revenue to pay my employees and the hosting. This is an alternative way to view the site. For $7.99 per month, you won’t get any ads. You’ll also have access to a premium chat where I’ll be every day to answer any questions. The chat will be available soon. If you want to support the site, besides telling others about it, signing up for WalterFootball Premium would be a great way to do so!

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Did it surprise anyone that Carson Wentz threw a game-losing interception at the Tennessee 2-yard line on Sunday? We had a big play on the Redskins, but when they got down to the 2-yard line at the end of regulation, I knew it in my bones that a pick was coming. I suddenly knew how John Locke felt when he sensed the rain on the LOST island. It was the same sort of sixth sense.

Wentz had an easy matchup then that he couldn’t fully exploit, and that is the case in this game. The Bears have been missing their No. 1 cornerback for several weeks, so if they don’t get Jaylon Johnson back for Thursday, Terry McLaurin should be able to get open easily. He and Curtis Samuel figure to thrive versus a Chicago secondary that allowed Kirk Cousins to complete his first 17 passes last week.

The Bears aren’t good against the run either, so the Redskins might have some rare success for all of the first-and-10 rushing calls they make. These play-calls are maddening, but they may just work this time.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears barely pass the ball. Even when down for most of the afternoon versus the Vikings, they attempted only 15 passes. This is how little the coaching staff trusts Justin Fields and the blocking (or lack thereof) in front of him.

With that in mind, the Bears can’t move the chains consistently if they can’t run the ball. That doesn’t bode well for them in this matchup because the Redskins are better against the rush than the pass. David Montgomery will have a nice run here and there, but it won’t be a consistent force.

The Redskins are incredibly weak versus the pass. Their secondary and linebacking corps are atrocious. The Bears, however, are not equipped to take advantage of these severe liabilities.

RECAP: I can’t say I’m interested in betting this game. The Redskins are the better team, and they have some nice matchup edges, but they are so poorly coached and quarterbacked that it may not matter.

Speaking of coaching, Matt Eberflus’ inexperience will work against him in this matchup. I’m not a big fan of trends, but I think it’s worth noting that rookie coaches are 8-19 against the spread on Thursday Night Football. That makes sense because their inexperience makes it difficult for them to prepare for a game on just three days of rest.

I’m going to use that as a tie-breaker for a game in which I have no conviction. I don’t want to bet money on the Redskins again, but the Bears somehow seem even less appealing.

Our Week 6 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Redskins will be missing several players, including Sam Cosmi, Logan Thomas, Jahan Dotson, and William Jackson. Despite this, I still would side with the Redskins. There’s no way I’m betting this game though. If anything, I’d take the over 38. It’s a low total, and both defenses stink.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some major injury news here, with top Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson returning to action. I considered betting the over, but I don’t have any interest in that with Johnson returning. I’m 50-50 on the side, and I’m only siding with the Redskins because of Chicago’s rookie coach having to prepare on just three days. If you like Washington, the best line is -1 -108 at Bookmaker. There’s a bit of sharp action on Washington.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4)
Line: Buccaneers by 10. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Oct. 16, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: ESPN viewers may look at the Bills-Steelers score from Week 5 and determine that Pittsburgh wasn’t competitive at all. While the defense struggled immensely, Kenny Pickett was at least solid in his first start. Those ESPN viewers may be confused by this statement because of the three-point total, but what they’re missing is that Pickett endured some unfortunate mistakes from his teammates. His receivers dropped five passes, and two of Diontae Johnson’s potential receptions, including a possible touchdown, were barely out of bounds.

Pickett looked good in his first start, and he may be even better in his second stint. It’s a small sample size, but Pickett has been excellent versus the blitz thus far. Pickett is 9-of-12 for 111 yards versus the blitz in his brief action. This is significant because the Buccaneers have the eighth-highest blitz rate in the NFL. We’ll see if Pickett’s small sample size versus the blitz holds up.

Pickett won’t get any help from his running game, however. The Buccaneers are excellent versus the rush, and it’s not like Najee Harris is finding any running lanes to burst through anyway.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers aren’t the only team in this matchup that blitzes at a high rate. The Steelers are also in the top 10 of blitz rate, and anyone who is familiar with Tom Brady’s play knows how much of a strike this is against Pittsburgh.

The only way to clamp down on Brady is to pressure him with only four players. The Steelers would be able to do this if T.J. Watt were healthy, but he hasn’t been on the field since Week 1. The Steelers have to blitz often with Watt out of the lineup, which bodes poorly against Brady. Throughout his career, Brady has eaten the blitz alive, and that will continue in this game against a Steeler pass defense that is completely miserable.

Unlike the Steelers, the Buccaneers will be able to run as well. Pittsburgh struggles against the rush in addition to the pass, so Leonard Fournette will have a strong game in both regards.

RECAP: There’s been some major line movement in this game that I don’t believe is completely warranted. The advance spread was Tampa Bay -6.5, yet the line has ballooned through the key number of seven, all the way to -9. What transpired in Week 5 to make such an adjustment? The only thing that comes to mind is the 38-3 Steelers loss in Buffalo, but Pickett played better than expected in that game. As mentioned, his teammates dropped five passes, and Johnson was barely out of bounds on two plays.

Meanwhile, what the Buccaneers accomplished wasn’t overly impressive either. They were up 21-0 on the Falcons, but allowed a back-door touchdown because they took their foot off the gas. Still, I find it concerning that the Buccaneers haven’t played a complete game yet. They’ve looked great in single halves on occasion, but they haven’t been able to close out teams very well. This could mean that the Steelers will be in play for a back-door cover.

That said, unless there are some unexpected injuries, I won’t be betting this game heavily. The sportsbooks mispriced this spread a bit, but not enough for me to place a wager on the home underdog. That said, if this number continues to rise into double digits, I may increase my bet on Pittsburgh.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I stand by my small wager on the Steelers. This line is too high, given that the Buccaneers haven’t played a complete game yet. If the Steelers had T.J. Watt available, I think I’d pick them to pull the outright upset.

SATURDAY NOTES: I had interest in betting the Steelers until I saw the injury report. Pittsburgh will be down its top three cornerbacks, as well as Minkah Fitzpatrick. How in the world are they going to stop Tom Brady and his talented receivers? I’m switching my pick to the Buccaneers, and I’d be tempted to bet them very heavily if I were confident that they’d be able to play a full game after last week’s fourth-quarter debacle.

SATURDAY NOTES II: This spread has crept up to -10 in most sportsbooks, though you can still get -9.5 at Bovada. I will lock in that number for three units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: All of the -9.5s are off the board. The best line is -10 -105 at Bovada and FanDuel. I’d still like the Buccaneers at that price because of Pittsburgh’s secondary injuries. The public and sharps are on Tampa.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at New Orleans Saints (1-3)
Line: Bengals by 3. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Oct. 16, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides are now 9-8 this year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Chiefs -7

Seahawks +5.5

Titans -3

49ers -6

Chalky sides like Tennessee and San Francisco covered. Ugh.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Bengals -1

Buccaneers -9

49ers -6

Cowboys +5.5

Everyone loves the Buccaneers, 49ers and Cowboys. The Cincinnati action surprises me.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: There are some major injury question marks for the Saints, primarily at receiver. Already down Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, the Saints lost Chris Olave to a concussion this past week. There’s a chance one of Thomas or Olave returns to action this week, but there’s also a possibility that New Orleans will be without its top three wideouts, which will revert the team back to the corps of Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith from a year ago. The more things change, the more they stay the same, apparently.

Also, it’s unclear if Jameis Winston will return. Andy Dalton may have to start again, and if so, then the Saints definitely won’t challenge Cincinnati’s secondary. This will benefit Alvin Kamara, however, who should continue to thrive. If Winston returns, he’ll want to take more shots downfield.

The Bengals don’t have a weak secondary, but they can be beaten on downfield throws. Remember that Lamar Jackson had two receivers open for deep touchdowns toward the end of regulation, but missed them. Winston may have better success, but only if Thomas and/or Olave are available.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: I loved the Bengals in that Sunday night game because Joe Burrow matched up so well against the Ravens blitz. Burrow didn’t even have Tee Higgins available in the wake of a surprise injury, and yet he still covered the spread and nearly prevailed.

Burrow won’t be as successful in this game because the Saints have the third-lowest blitz rate in the NFL. They should theoretically be able to generate pressure with just their front four, though that hasn’t happened this season. I don’t know why, but both Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport are having down years. Perhaps one of them will snap out of their funk, but neither is generating much pressure on the quarterback.

If Burrow has a clean pocket, blitz or not, he’ll perform on a high level, just as Geno Smith did last week. He may also get some support from Joe Mixon, who will be running into a mediocre rush defense.

RECAP: We didn’t move through any key numbers, but there was a two-point shift from the advance line. This spread was a pick ’em, but it moved to Cincinnati -2 for some reason. I suppose this could be in reaction to Winston news, but I don’t think there’s much of a difference between the two quarterbacks. If Dalton gets the nod, he’ll target Kamara and get some help from Taysom Hill. If it’s Winston, he’ll attack downfield, hopefully to Thomas or Olave.

Speaking of Thomas, one stipulation I have is that if he, Olave and Landry are all sidelined, I’ll be betting on the Bengals. I’m still going to side with Cincinnati at the moment, as I love backing elite quarterbacks off a loss. Burrow is 11-3 against the spread off a defeat.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: None of the Saints’ top three receivers practiced Wednesday. It’s still early, but that’s obviously not a good sign. I’d expect this line to rise to -3 if they all continue to miss practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping for Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave all to be out to place a bet on the Bengals, but Olave seems likely to play after practicing fully on Friday. Jameis Winston may also be in action because he was limited all week, but Marshon Lattimore won’t play. Cincinnati has some questionable players as well with Tee Higgins and Jonah Williams getting just one limited practice during the week. I’m still torn on this game, but I think I’ll be putting the Saints in a teaser, depending on the inactives list.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is another game where the public and sharps are on the Bengals. I believe the pros are on Cincinnati because all three of the New Orleans receivers are out. The Bengals will have Tee Higgins, Jonah Williams, and Hayden Hurst, all of whom were questionable. All the -2.5 lines are gone. I don’t see anything better than -3 -112 at Bookmaker and FanDuel.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) at Indianapolis Colts (2-2-1)
Line: Colts by 1.5. Total: 41.
Sunday, Oct. 16, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. This is from our resident conquistador:



I have no doubt now that Puddles’ ancestors were the ones cracking the whips, ushering the American Indians along the Trail of Tears.

Here’s something about the terrible Week 5 picks:



Anyone want to guess why this guy calls himself “Big Mac?” Obviously, his last name begins with “Mc,” but why the “Big?” Is he overcompensating for something, or does he just love to eat Big Macs?

Here’s something from Twitter where I replied to an old dude trying to fix someone’s grammar. This was in a thread about the FBI arresting someone for something, which is way too common these days:



Imagine being an 80-year-old dude and doing nothing except correcting people’s grammar on Twitter. Doesn’t this guy have great grandchildren to play with?

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I expected Trevor Lawrence to make a big leap in his second season, and while he has for the most part, we saw some regression versus Houston. Lawrence pre-determined his throws and missed open receivers against Lovie Smith’s defense, dropping him to 0-3 in that matchup.

Lawrence, however, has already succeeded versus this opponent. This is because the Colts don’t generate any sort of pressure on the quarterback. This is massive for Lawrence because he’s so much worse when he has pass rushers in his face. This could be said of many quarterbacks, but for Lawrence, the dichotomy is huge. In a clean pocket this year, Lawrence is completing 71 percent of his passes with a 7:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. When pressured, Lawrence is 18-of-48 for 207 yards, one touchdown and three picks.

If there was a silver lining to the loss versus the Texans, it’s that the Jaguars used Travis Etienne more often than usual. Etienne is explosive and could have a great performance against the Colts if Shaq Leonard is sidelined once again. Leonard, however, is likely to return from a concussion that kept him out of Week 5.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Like Lawrence, Matt Ryan hasn’t dealt with pressure very well this season. Ball security has been a massive issue for him. Somehow, Ryan has already fumbled 11 times in five games! The poor offensive line isn’t doing him any favors, but Ryan needs to hang on to the football.

Ryan will be under constant siege from an improved Jacksonville pass rush. The Jaguars are ninth in pressure rate, thanks to all of the draft capital they’ve spent on their front seven. Ryan, as a result, is likely to commit more turnovers.

The Colts will need Jonathan Taylor to return from injury to keep Jacksonville’s pass rush honest. It’s unclear if that’ll happen, and even if it does, Taylor hasn’t been able to find ample running lanes since his Week 1 performance against the Texans.

RECAP: I was hoping for a better number on the Jaguars. When I saw Jacksonville lose to Houston, I thought the line might shift from the advance spread of -2.5 to -3, or maybe even -3.5. I expected to see good value on the Jaguars.

Instead, the opposite happened. The line shrunk to -2, which tells me that Jacksonville is the right side. Someone is keeping this line from moving to -3, and it’s likely the sharps, who recognize that Jacksonville looked much better than that 13-6 loss to Houston says it did. The real Jaguars are the team that had a couple of blowouts before the rainy game in Philadelphia, and I expect that we’ll see that team again this Sunday versus the Colts, whom they routinely dominate.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Jonathan Taylor or Shaq Leonard in practice yet, which is obviously a nice boost for the Jaguars. Jacksonville is looking good as an underrated team coming off last week’s very misleading result.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jonathan Taylor will probably play, but Shaq Leonard and Kwity Paye are both sidelined. Jacksonville’s offense will likely rebound, while the defense will feast on Matt Ryan behind Indianapolis’ poor offensive line. I still like the Jaguars for two units, though I’d say the best way to bet this game is by putting Jacksonville in a teaser.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines are out, which presents a problem for the Colts because they are the two receiving backs. I’m bumping this up to three units, and I’m placing the Jaguars in a teaser with the Packers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I already addressed the Indianapolis injuries on Saturday. I like the Jaguars, though the sharps haven’t taken a side, which is surprising to me. The best line is +1.5 -110 across the board.

New England Patriots (1-3) at Cleveland Browns (2-2)
Line: Browns by 2.5. Total: 43.
Sunday, Oct. 16, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Contest Announcement time!

Our weekly fantasy football contest has returned. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!

Also, our Survivor Contest has returned as well. It’s free to enter, and you can win $350!

If you’re looking for the best DFS content on the Web, sign up for Stokastic for the greatest projections and ownership data.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: It’s the battle of the backup quarterbacks! Bailey Zappe is likely to draw another start after performing much better than expected versus Detroit. Granted, it was an easy matchup, but I didn’t expect him to misfire on just four occasions. Zappe was deadly accurate and managed the game well.

It helped Zappe that he was able to take advantage of Detroit turnovers and Rhamondre Stevenson runs. I don’t know if the Browns are going to give the ball away thrice on fourth down like the Lions did last week, but I bet we’ll see Stevenson dominate. The Browns’ rush defense has been atrocious ever since losing Anthony Walker to injury in the Thursday night victory over the Steelers. Every running back they’ve battled since has looked incredible, including the Falcons’ Caleb Huntley and the Chargers’ Joshua Kelley. The Browns are so desperate for help that they traded for Deion Jones, who hasn’t played at a high level since 2017.

Stevenson should pummel through Cleveland’s pathetic tackling efforts, setting up favorable passing situations for Zappe. The Browns can bring a tremendous pass rush with Myles Garrett, but Stevenson’s rushing will negate that.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns will obviously attempt to establish the rush as well. The Patriots are also weak to the run; they’re just two weeks removed from surrendering nearly 200 combined rushing yards to Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will continue to trample over the competition, which will allow Jacoby Brissett to operate in favorable passing downs. Brissett will need all the help he can get against his former coach. Bill Belichick is the master of erasing one aspect of an opposing defense, and I imagine he’ll find a way to blanket Amari Cooper.

There’s some hope for Brissett though, and that would be his ability to beat the blitz. The Patriots blitz at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL, and Brissett thrives against the blitz. He’s 32-of-47 for 333 yards and two touchdowns against the blitz this year. Perhaps Belichick will recognize this, but that’ll mean that his team won’t be able to generate pressure against Brissett, who is protected well.

RECAP: I had trouble with this game. I made this line Cleveland -3, and that’s exactly what the spread is. I like backing good teams playing backup quarterbacks, but both are doing so in this contest!

After some deliberation, I’ve decided to be on the Browns. The Patriots have played well the past couple of weeks, but they took advantage of a distracted Packer squad and an injury-ravaged Lions team. Those results could’ve gone differently, and the same could be said of Cleveland’s recent losses. The Browns outplayed the Falcons by a wide margin, but lost because of some mental blunders. They would have defeated the Chargers had Cade York not missed his kick. If the Browns were 4-1 right now, this spread would be higher, so you could argue that we’re getting value with the host. That may already be true because the advance spread was -3.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line dropped to Patriots +2.5 from +3, likely because Denzel Ward missed Wednesday’s practice. I still would favor the Browns a bit.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Browns won’t have Denzel Ward, which would be a big deal if the Patriots had a strong passing attack. We don’t even know who will play quarterback for the Patriots yet – Mac Jones was limited all week – but I’ll be surprised if it’s not Bailey Zappe. Either way, I’m not going to bet this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Mac Jones and Damien Harris are out after all. The Patriots are also missing some key defensive players. I still don’t have much of a lean on this game, though the sharps took the Patriots at +3, but not +2.5.

New York Jets (3-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-2)
Line: Packers by 7.5. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Oct. 16, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

If you’d like to support this site outside of buying my books or referring people to it, you can check out the WalterFootball Merch Store as well! I can design shirts rather easily, so if you have any new ideas, let me know in the comments below. In addition to WalterFootball t-shirts, you can also buy AMC and GameStop stock gear as well!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: You’d think that Zach Wilson would have performed on a high level in a 40-point outing, but he didn’t do very much. His running backs did all the work against a Miami team that lost its backup quarterback to an apparent concussion. Wilson completed only 14 passes in the victory.

Wilson will obviously have to do much more in this contest. His New York counterpart, Daniel Jones, had a brilliant second-half performance against the Packers, which Wilson would love to replicate. Wilson, however, will have much more of a problem against the Packer blitz than Jones did. Whereas Jones tends to succeed against the blitz, Wilson fails when facing it. Wilson has a career completion percentage of 47 and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 0:3 versus the blitz.

Wilson will once again need his running backs to save him. Breece Hall has been stellar thus far and could break some big gains, but he’ll likely have to catch passes in a deficit.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It was initially shocking that Aaron Rodgers didn’t score a single offensive point in the second half versus the Giants. Then again, it wasn’t too surprising after hearing what transpired in London. I learned after the game that Matt LaFleur had severe issues adjusting to London time. He reportedly was late to meetings and even groaned, “I don’t know what time it is here.” Weird!

I wish I had known this before I bet three units on the Packers, but I’m glad I do now because we can expect Green Bay to rebound. This includes Rodgers and his zero-point second half. The Jets generate lots of pressure on the quarterback, but Rodgers is protected by one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. I expect him to perform much better than he did in London.

The Jets’ defense is particularly weak in the middle of the field. This plays into the strength of the Packers, which they didn’t utilize for some reason versus the Giants. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon barely touched the ball, but the Packers will likely use them to attack New York’s linebacking corps.

RECAP: I love fading overreactions in the NFL, and it doesn’t get more blatant than this. Everyone saw the Packers lose to the Giants on Sunday morning. The reaction from people, concerning this spread, was that, “The Packers don’t deserve to be seven-point favorites over anyone because they can’t score.”

Green Bay has issues regarding its receiving corps, but the offensive line and running game are both excellent. The Packers have scored 27 points twice this year, and they could reach that figure again versus the Jets. If so, they only need to limit Wilson to 19 to cover, which seems very feasible. This is because the spread has shrunk to -7 from the advance line of -9.5. Call me crazy, but one half on international soil doesn’t warrant a 2.5-point line change!

Now, I know that part of it was the Jets’ “impressive” victory over the Dolphins. They won 40-17, after all, so New York must be great now. That result was incredibly misleading, however, as the Jets led just 19-17 versus a third-string quarterback heading into the fourth quarter when Mike Gesicki dropped a pass at the Jets 30-yard line. An ensuing field goal would’ve given the Dolphins the lead in the final frame. Instead, Jason Sanders missed a long try because of the Gesicki drop, setting up the Jets on a short field. So, the Jets got lucky last week, and the same thing happened versus Pittsburgh when Kenny Pickett tossed three interceptions to hand the Jets the victory.

If the Jets had lost to the Steelers and Teddy Bridgewater-led Dolphins, they’d be 1-4 right now, and this spread would be closer to that original -9.5, even after the London loss. I love the value with the Packers, who are incredibly underrated. I expect them to bounce back, which is commonplace with Rodgers and LaFleur. Under LaFleur, the Packers are a perfect 10-0 straight up and against the spread following a loss in the regular season.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Aaron Rodgers missed Wednesday’s practice with a thumb designation. “Be fune by Sunday, I’m sure,” he said. Hmm…

SATURDAY NOTES: The Packers still look great to me, as Aaron Rodgers practiced fully Thursday and Friday. We’re getting a great discount with Green Bay after last week’s misleading loss in London.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Rashan Gary was questionable heading into this game, but he will play. The sharps bet the Packers at -7, but not -7.5. You can still get -7 for -125 vig at Bovada. It’s close between that and -7.5 -110, but I’ll take it.

Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at New York Giants (4-1)
Line: Ravens by 5.5. Total: 46.
Sunday, Oct. 16, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Cris Collinsworth was ranting and raving about needing to pay Lamar Jackson on Sunday night, completely ignoring the ramifications of giving a huge contract to one player. Jackson had some terrific scrambles, but then ruined Collinsworth’s argument when he missed two wide-open players for touchdowns at the end of regulation.

Jackson is a great player, but he has his faults. One such fault was his play against the blitz. He was terrible when teams sent extra pass rushers prior to this year, but he did a good job of improving in that regard this season. In fact, he’s 37-of-56 for 471 yards, seven touchdowns and only one interception when blitzed this year. Jackson is a hard worker, so it’s not surprising to see him improve in this aspect.

The blitz must be discussed because no team blitzes more than the Giants. This would have been troublesome last year, but Jackson should be able to put together a strong performance. Jackson will also be able to lean on J.K. Dobbins, who will be battling a team that has severe issues versus the rush.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Ravens also blitz often because they don’t have the personnel to get home with just four players. This plays into Daniel Jones’ strengths as well. Jones thrived versus the constant Green Bay blitz in London, and he should continue to perform well when seeing extra pass rushers.

Jones, however, doesn’t have the greatest supporting cast. Darius Slayton may have caught the Packers by surprise in London, but Baltimore should be able to clamp down on New York’s injury-ravaged receiving corps. Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters should have no issues dealing with the likes of Slayton, Richie James and David Sills.

Saquon Barkley, however, will remain a threat. The Ravens are weak to the run, thanks to the injury to Michael Pierce. Joe Mixon just had a rare, quality performance against them, so Barkley figures to have a strong outing. He’ll also succeed as a receiver out of the backfield versus a pedestrian linebacking corps.

RECAP: This line opened +6, but was quickly dragged down by the sharps to +4.5. Perhaps they still believe Jackson is a huge liability against the blitz, but that’s not the case anymore. Something else that must be considered is the play of Jaylon Smith. The former Cowboy has found a new home with the Giants, and he has been amazing thus far. Linebacker had been a huge liability for the Giants, but that has changed ever since they signed Smith off the street. His presence in the middle of the field can help the Giants limit Jackson.

That said, I’m going to be on the Ravens. I’m just not buying into the Giants. They were outplayed by the Titans and Panthers to start the year, so they could easily be 2-3. They beat the Packers last week, but Matt LaFleur was apparently having severe Circadian rhythm issues in London. Thanks to some major luck, the Giants are 4-1. Team records are the siren song of the simple-minded, so I feel like we should be able to take advantage of this by fading a New York team that recently couldn’t defeat Cooper Rush at home.

I’m not sure if I’ll have a bet on Baltimore, but I like the minor spread value we’re receiving. The advance spread was -6, so getting a key number is nice.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has moved up to Baltimore -5.5. No word why, but the Ravens still look a bit appealing.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m not going to bet this game because Rashod Bateman is sidelined. This will make the Ravens less explosive, which will make it more difficult to cover this near-touchdown spread.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both Leonard Williams and Wan’Dale Robinson return for the Giants, which makes Baltimore less appealing. The sharps haven’t touched this game, and I have no interest either.

Minnesota Vikings (4-1) at Miami Dolphins (3-2)
Line: Vikings by 3. Total: 45.
Sunday, Oct. 16, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

Video of the Week: During last week’s picks podcast, Jacob told me to check out the Russell Wilson Subway Dangerwich commercial. I did, and it’s incredible:



People are criticizing Wilson for the serial killer vibe, but I like how this ad is appealing to any crazy man who aspires to kidnap and tie up pretty women. All of them will be eating at Subway now.

And if you think that’s weird, check out this picture of someone feeding Russell Wilson a Subway sandwich:



Who is feeding that to him, and why!?

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: It’s amazing that Kirk Cousins completed his first 17 passes against the Bears last week. Then again, it was one of the easiest matchups he’ll enjoy all year. Chicago, already down top cornerback Jaylon Johnson, didn’t blitz Cousins at all. Aside from the Bills, no team blitzes less frequently than the Bears. This was a recipe for success for Cousins, who thrives when he doesn’t see extra pass rushers.

The Dolphins, conversely, blitz often, and if you remember what happened to Cousins against the Eagles, you know where I’m going with this. Against the blitz this year, Cousins is just 21-of-44 for 185 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. The Vikings also have a top-tier cornerback in Xavien Howard, who can slow down Justin Jefferson. Howard missed last week’s game, but he was close to playing, so he may return this Sunday.

I think the Dolphins will do well defensively against the Vikings in all aspects. They project well versus Dalvin Cook, too, as they rank eighth in yards-per-carry surrendered. They severely limited Joe Mixon two weeks ago, and Cook provides a similar challenge.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Vikings match up very poorly with the Dolphins on this side of the ball as well. It has nothing to do with the blitz, though it must be noted that the Vikings don’t put much pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Every quarterback who has played against them since Week 2 has performed well, and this includes Andy Dalton and Justin Fields.

The issue here for the Vikings is their secondary. They have a poor group of cornerbacks who have been extremely overmatched when battling talented receiving corps. The Vikings, however, haven’t done that very often. Three of their five opponents – Packers, Saints, Bears – didn’t have the talented wideouts to take advantage of this liability. Remember, the Saints didn’t have Michael Thomas available, so their only viable wideout was Chris Olave. The other two opponents, the Eagles and Lions, torched Minnesota with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Amon-Ra St. Brown and D.J. Chark.

The Dolphins obviously have great receivers. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle caught every single target thrown their way last week despite catching passes from Skylar Thompson. It’s possible Thompson could play again, but it sounds like Teddy Bridgewater will be available. Bridgewater is fully capable of dissecting Minnesota’s secondary with Hill and Waddle.

RECAP: I’m posting this pick early because it’s my October NFL Pick of the Month, and I wanted to make sure to catch the +3 that is available. I’d still love the Dolphins at +2.5, but three is the primary key number in the NFL, so I thought it would be best to lock this in before the line moves in the wake of a potential Bridgewater announcement.

Here’s why I love the Dolphins:

1. As discussed, Cousins is terrible against the blitz. He looked lost when the Eagles sent numerous pass rushers his way, and that should continue against Miami. Again, Cousins is 21-of-44 for 185 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions when blitzed this year.

2. Another reminder that the Vikings’ poor cornerbacks haven’t been challenged much this year. They’re 0-2 against the spread when battling talented receiving corps, and they would have lost to the Lions had St. Brown not gotten injured.

3. That leads us toward how overrated the Vikings are. Everyone loves them because they’re 4-1, but team records are the siren call of the simple-minded. What has Minnesota done this year that’s so impressive? There was a blowout victory versus the Packers in Week 1, but Green Bay had a skeleton crew roster on the field. Most teams would have clobbered that Packer squad. After that, the Vikings barely survived the injury-ravaged Lions and Saints, both of whom had injuries to their running back and top receiver. Minnesota’s fourth win was versus the Bears, which came down to the wire.

I don’t understand why everyone thinks the Vikings are so great. They have some big names, and they’re 4-1, but nothing they’ve done this year is impressive. They almost lost to the Lions, Andy Dalton-led Saints, and Bears! Why are they three-point road favorites?

4. I think the Dolphins are more impressive than the Vikings. They’ve played a much tougher schedule. They’ve beaten the Bills, Ravens and Patriots. They suffered a close loss in Cincinnati, and then they suffered a defeat to the Jets last week when their third-string quarterback was thrust into action. Despite Thompson being the quarterback, the Dolphins were down just 19-17 entering the fourth quarter when Mike Gesicki dropped a pass at the Jets 30. Had he caught that pass, the Dolphins likely would have taken the lead. Instead, Jason Sanders missed a long field goal, setting up the Jets in great field position. At any rate, that game would have gone much differently had Bridgewater been able to play.

5. Speaking of Bridgewater, he could be back, and I don’t think there’s any sort of downgrade from Tua Tagovailoa to him. Bridgewater isn’t suffering from any concussion symptoms, so it sounds like he’ll be able to play. Even if he can’t, Thompson wasn’t terrible versus the Jets, and he’ll be playing in an easy matchup. He’ll have a full week to prepare, and I like good teams using their backup quarterbacks.

6. In regard to the spread, it’s clearly incorrect. It moved four points from the advance line of Miami -1. My calculated line is Miami -2. If my line is correct, there is a 61.3-percent chance the Dolphins will cover the spread, based on that number alone.

7. Also, the spread of three is very significant. The most likely result of any game between close teams is three. With the +3, we get the win or cover with the Dolphins.

8. And finally, it appears as though there’s sharp action on the Dolphins. There is far more money than bets coming in on the Dolphins, indicating that the pros like the host.

Those are the reasons why I love the Dolphins so much. I’m locking this in now at +3 -108 at Bookmaker. This spread is off the board in some sportsbooks, but is available at Bookmaker and FanDuel. Good luck to those who follow!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: So, I was right about Teddy Bridgewater’s concussion, or lack thereof. Bridgewater is cleared to play. However, he won’t start! Skylar Thompson will instead, which has moved the line to +3.5. I still love the Dolphins, but not getting the +3.5 is pissing me off. I trust Mike McDaniel, but I wish we were getting the better number.

SATURDAY NOTES: The important part of the injury report is that Xavien Howard will play this week. Another piece of great news is that the sharps bet the Dolphins at +3.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Well, this sucks. Terron Armstead is finally sidelined after playing through injuries the first five weeks of the season. It figures it would happen when I submit my Pick of the Month! The sharps bet the Dolphins at +3.5, but there was some pushback from the other side at -3 when the Armstead news was announced. If you haven’t bet this game yet, the best Miami line is +3.5 -114 at FanDuel.

San Francisco 49ers (3-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3)
Line: 49ers by 4. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Oct. 16, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



Oh, and my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The Panthers couldn’t get the 49ers off the field last week. San Francisco converted third down after third down, especially in the second half. As someone who foolishly backed Carolina, it was brutal to watch.

The 49ers should have the same sort of success in this matchup. Atlanta has the worst pressure rate in the NFL, so Jimmy Garoppolo will have all day to throw. When kept clean in the pocket this year, Garoppolo is 53-of-84 for 738 yards and four touchdowns. He’ll be battling an Atlanta secondary that has been able to take away No. 1 receivers effectively, but Garoppolo will have plenty of threats at his disposal.

The Falcons are not strong against the run either, which will make things even easier for Garoppolo. Jeff Wilson Jr. figures to have a great game on the ground versus Atlanta’s miserable front.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Whereas the Falcons don’t place any pressure on opposing quarterbacks, the 49ers are capable of generating heavy heat. Aside from the Cowboys, no one gets to the quarterback more often than San Francisco.

That, however, may change temporarily. The 49ers’ defensive line, already missing Arik Armstead, could be without Nick Bosa this week. Bosa is dealing with a groin injury, so his potential absence is a huge boon for the Falcons, as is Emmanuel Moseley’s. The starting cornerback is out for the year, so Atlanta’s passing attack will likely function better than usual, especially if Kyle Pitts returns from a hamstring ailment that caused him to miss last week’s contest.

The Falcons will need Pitts back on the field to take attention away from Drake London. Many DFS players were excited about London’s outlook last week when Pitts was ruled out, but I was concerned that the Buccaneers would be able to key in on London. Pitts hasn’t posted great stats this year, but his availability will open up the offense.

RECAP: I thought there was a chance the 49ers wouldn’t be focused last week in the wake of their huge Monday night win over the Rams. They were sharp versus the Panthers, however, so what if this is the flat spot? It could be because the 49ers have to take on the Chiefs in a Super Bowl revenge game next week.

Given that reason, I don’t have much interest in the 49ers, who keep adding names to the injury report. Armstead and Jason Verrett were already sidelined. Now, Moseley and Jimmie Ward will definitely be out, while Bosa could also miss time. By my count, the 49ers will be down a whopping 10 starters in this game!

I’m no fan of the Falcons ordinarily, but there’s no way a team wrecked by injuries like the 49ers should be close to a touchdown favorite on the road against anyone. The Falcons have shown that they’ll fight to the very end, even if they’re getting blown out, so they’ll show more resistance than the Panthers did last week.

I plan on betting on the Falcons, so it’s a shame that we missed out on the +6.5 and +6 lines from Sunday night and Monday. The sharps made sure those weren’t around, but +5.5 is still pretty good. My unit count will depend on how the injury report looks on Friday night.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The 49ers said there’s a chance Nick Bosa could play, so the injury report will be monitored. Even if he plays, he could get knocked out early because soft-tissue injuries tend to linger.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nick Bosa went DNP-DNP-limited in practice this week, but I’d be shocked if they allowed him to play with a balky groin on turf. If he’s out, the 49ers will be missing 10 starters; 11 if Aaron Banks is also sidelined after being limited all week. A team missing about half of its starters shouldn’t be a large favorite on the road, and the sharps agree.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nick Bosa is out! The 49ers are down 10 starters, and yet we’re getting two key numbers with the Falcons. The sharps bet Atlanta at every number above +4, and I don’t see anything better than +4 -110 across the board.