NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2022

Carolina Panthers (1-4) at Los Angeles Rams (2-3)
Line: Rams by 10. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Oct. 16, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: I like looking at blitz splits, in case you couldn’t tell, and Matthew Stafford’s numbers are wild. Stafford is excellent versus the blitz, as expected. He’s 30-of-42 for 359 yards and three touchdowns and no interceptions when seeing extra pass rushers. This is good for a 71.4-percent completion rate and an 8.5 YPA. When not blitzed, Stafford is completing 69.3 percent of his passes, which is fine, but his YPA shrinks to 6.4. Even worse, he has thrown two touchdowns compared to seven interceptions!

It’s remarkable how much Stafford has struggled when not blitzed this year, but it makes sense if you think about it. His toughest matchups have been against the Bills, 49ers and Cowboys, three dominant defenses that don’t blitz. He has seen a ton of pressure in those games, which would explain his horrible numbers. While things look grim for the long haul, Stafford can at least breathe a sigh of relief this week because the Panthers blitz frequently.

Stafford should be able to carve up Carolina’s defense, while Cam Akers could get back on track as well. Akers has been stonewalled by tough defenses lately, but the Panthers aren’t very good against the rush.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Here’s another unexpected stat: Excluding the Falcons, no team has gotten less pressure on the quarterback than the Rams this year. That’s truly remarkable, given that Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd are still on the roster. Granted, Von Miller is gone, but you’d think Donald and Floyd would pressure the quarterback better than the second-worst rate in the NFL.

I expect the Rams’ numbers to improve in this regard after this game is over because the Panthers have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. I can’t see them blocking Donald and Floyd effectively, which will create problems for Phillip Walker, who will be filling in for the injured Baker Mayfield. Walker is a fine scrambler, but his passing ability is lackluster.

Carolina’s only hope is to have Christian McCaffrey heavily involved on offense. The Rams are usually decent against the run, but they just allowed a couple of big plays to Jeff Wilson Jr. and Tony Pollard the past two weeks, so perhaps McCaffrey will break free for a long touchdown.

RECAP: If this isn’t a “get right” game for the Rams, I don’t know what would be. Los Angeles has been ravaged by injuries on the offensive line and secondary, so they needed an easy opponent to get back on track. The Panthers will be that sacrificial lamb.

I don’t think the Rams would have much of a problem with the Panthers under ordinary circumstances, but Carolina has made a coaching change and will be without its starting quarterback. Changes to the coaching staff, which also includes some new assistants, would be difficult enough for a horrible team, but Carolina also has to get a new quarterback prepared to play. What a disaster!

I love betting against terrible quarterbacks on terrible teams, and this obviously applies. I love Walker for winning me a DraftKings tournament when he was the XFL MVP, but he’s not an NFL-caliber starter. He could maybe do OK on a good team, but the Panthers are absolutely terrible for the most part.

The Rams should be able to cover this spread easily, and I’ll be betting heavily on it. If you’re concerned about this high line, remember that the Rams were up 28-3 on the Falcons in Week 2 before garbage time, and Atlanta is much better than a Carolina team making coaching changes and starting a backup quarterback.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps are betting the Panthers. They’ve dropped this line down to +10. I can’t believe it.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Rams are getting a couple of defensive backs (David Long, Taylor Rapp) back from injury, while the Panthers will likely be without their top cornerback, Jaycee Horn. A couple of other Carolina cornerbacks are injured as well, so on top of the coach and quarterback changes, the Panthers may also be dealing with cluster injuries at an important position versus the Rams. The sharps, however, were on Carolina at +11 and +10.5. This might be because teams making coaching changes have a positive spread record, but the Panthers didn’t fire only one coach. They also let go of their defensive coordinator. And on top of that, they’re preparing a new quarterback to play! I don’t see them being competitive at all in a must-win game for the Rams.

However, Jacob brought up a great point to me about this game. He noted that Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald and Tyler Higbee are all expected to play, but they’re banged up. Sean McVay may pull them a bit early as a result, opening up the door for a Panthers back-door cover. With that in mind, I’m not going to bet the Rams for the entire game, but rather on the first-half line.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Once again, I’d bet the first-half line over the game spread because the Rams could let up at the end.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no Jaycee Horn or Frankie Luvu for the Panthers. With the Buccaneers and Packers failing miserably, I suddenly have some hesitation with this high spread, but I still would bet the Rams on the first-half line. The sharps are on the Panthers.

Arizona Cardinals (2-3) at Seattle Seahawks (2-3)
Line: Cardinals by 2.5. Total: 50.5.
Sunday, Oct. 16, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: I’m shocked by what I saw out of Geno Smith last week. You might be wondering, “What about his 48-point output against the Lions?” He was great in that game, but that was expected. He was battling an injury-ravaged defense that blitzes very frequently, and he happens to be terrific against the blitz. The Saints, conversely, don’t blitz at all, and yet Smith continued to thrive. It might be too early to say this, but he’s playing like the quarterback we all expected to see out of West Virginia back in 2013.

I don’t see why Smith wouldn’t continue to thrive in this contest. Only three teams blitz more than the Cardinals, who need to do so because they no longer have Chandler Jones on the roster. Against the blitz this year, Smith is 30-of-38 for 296 yards and three touchdowns. That’s incredible!

Of Smith’s two dynamic receivers, I expect Tyler Lockett to thrive. The Cardinals have a history of bracketing D.K. Metcalf and allowing Lockett to dominate. Meanwhile, rookie Kenneth Walker will get his first start in the wake of Rashaad Penny’s injury. I love Walker as a prospect, but he doesn’t have the best matchup in this contest.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals have an injured running back as well. It’s unclear if James Conner will be able to take the field. If not, it’ll be Eno Benjamin, who will have a tremendous matchup at his disposal. The Seahawks are horrific against the run, so Benjamin could thrive.

Of course, Kyler Murray will do some excellent running as well. That is, if he even needs to do so. The Seahawks don’t generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which will be music to Murray’s ears. All quarterbacks are worse under pressure, but Murray is a different animal, as the dichotomy is so vast. When kept clean, Murray is 123-of-165 for 1,108 yards, five touchdowns and an interception this year. When under pressure, Murray is only 18-of-50 for 134 yards, one touchdown and two picks!

Assuming Murray will have at least one injured offensive lineman back from injury, he’ll have all the time he needs in the pocket to find Marquise Brown and his other weapons. Seattle’s miserable secondary doesn’t stand a chance against Brown and company.

RECAP: This is a close one. If the spread were Arizona -3.5, I’d probably be on the Seahawks. At -3, I’m going to side with the Cardinals.

What this comes down to is the defense. The Cardinals don’t have a great stop unit by any means, but they’re better than most think. The blitz will be an issue against Smith, but it’s nothing like the advantage Arizona will have when possessing the ball. Seattle’s defense could be historically bad, as it surrendered 27 to Marcus Mariota in Week 3, 45 to the Amon-Ra St. Brown- and DeAndre Swift-less Lions the following week, and 39 to the Andy Dalton-led Saints this past Sunday. Arizona’s offense is much better than those three units, so the Cardinals may score every time they have the ball.

Again, I’m not seeing much of an advantage here, but the Cardinals seem like the play as long as they’re not favored by more than a field goal.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Handicappers I respect like the Seahawks. In fact, all of them are on Seattle. It seems like I’m the only one who likes Arizona. Maybe I’m missing something, but the Seahawks recently lost to the Falcons at home.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Cardinals figure to have one of their interior linemen back, not that the Seahawks would be able to take advantage of these injuries anyway. Arizona should be able to win this game, especially with Seahawks guard Gabe Jackson being ruled out.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’ll probably end up betting two units on this game. I don’t have much to say about it at the moment now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Rodney Hudson is out, so I’m going to lay off this one, especially with all the crap happening in the early games. The sharps haven’t touched this one.

Buffalo Bills (4-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)
Line: Bills by 2.5. Total: 54.5.
Sunday, Oct. 16, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called the Point of No Returns. See what happened when I had to make some returns for my wife!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: It’s insane that Josh Allen made some mistakes against the Steelers, and yet he was on pace to break Norm Van Brocklin’s single-game passing yards record of 554. He had about 350 at halftime, but threw just one pass in the fourth quarter because the Steelers couldn’t keep up on the scoreboard.

There’s no reason to think Allen won’t be able to continue his aerial assault against the Chiefs. We saw Allen torch them in the AFC divisional-round playoff game, and Derek Carr was able to connect on some deep bombs to Davante Adams on Monday night. Allen figures to do the same with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.

The one recipe for beating elite quarterbacks is to pressure them consistently with just four defenders. The Chiefs are not built to do that. They blitz frequently, and Allen will be able to take advantage of this.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: What I wrote in the Buffalo section also applies to Kansas City. Beating elite quarterbacks is all about generating consistent pressure without sending extra defenders. Well, that’s exactly what the Bills do now with Von Miller on the roster. The Bills blitz less frequently than any other team in the NFL, yet they’re capable of generating a heavy rush.

This will obviously bother Patrick Mahomes, who will be forced into making some hurried throws. This will likely lead to some mistakes, though Mahomes will be able to generate some scoring drives as well. It won’t be as consistent, especially if the Chiefs are missing talented lineman Trey Smith again.

One thing that must be noted is that the Bills are incredible against tight ends. They’ve limited Mark Andrews and Pat Freiermuth to two receptions each in their battles against them. Travis Kelce might have a bit more success, but don’t expect anything close to the four-touchdown performance we saw Monday night.

RECAP: A couple of weeks ago, we saw Mahomes go berserk in a revenge game against the Buccaneers. Now, it’s Allen’s turn. Allen has likely been thinking about what could have transpired had his team won the coin toss during that incredible playoff affair. Buffalo’s front office, conversely, did everything in its power this offseason to make sure it doesn’t even come down to a coin toss. Management acquired some new cornerbacks and also made a blockbuster acquisition by obtaining Miller.

Miller will be the difference-maker in this game. His presence means that the Bills don’t have to blitz to get to the superstar quarterback. The Chiefs do, and blitzing often will burn them against Allen.

That said, I don’t see much of a betting edge at the moment. I like the Bills, but they’re favored and the number is about what it should be. They also have the advantage of possessing the extra day of preparation, but that’s not enough for me to place a wager. I’m just going to enjoy this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I may end up betting the Bills. I thought about it, and I don’t think the Chiefs are as good as people believe they are. They have two blowout wins thus far, beating the Cardinals and Buccaneers soundly. Arizona was missing half of its roster, and Tampa Bay is also a bit overrated. Otherwise, the Chiefs probably should have lost to the Chargers on a Thursday night; they lost to the Colts; and they barely escaped with a win versus the Raiders this past Monday. What the Bills can do defensively is huge for this matchup, so I may end up betting a unit or two on Buffalo.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Chiefs will be down one starting cornerback (Rashad Fenton), while the Bills will have two defensive backs returning from injury (Jordan Poyer, Christian Benford). I feel like people aren’t pounding the Bills because Patrick Mahomes is a home underdog for the first time in his career, but there’s a reason for that. The Bills are much better, and they acquired Von Miller specifically for this matchup.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I know the squarest bettor in the world, and he’s confused about why the Bills are favored in Kansas City. That bodes very well for Buffalo.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Zack Moss is the only surprise inactive, but that doesn’t matter. I still like the Bills for three units, with the best line being -2.5 -118 at FanDuel. There was some sharp money on the Bills earlier in the week, but not at -2.5.

Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-0)
Line: Eagles by 6.5. Total: 42.
Sunday, Oct. 16, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Ask any football fan what the Cowboys are best known for these days, and they’ll tell you that it’s their pass rush. Dallas generates a ton of heat on opposing quarterbacks with Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. In fact, they have the highest pressure rate in the NFL. They’ve abused the Bengal, Giant, Redskins and Ram offensive lines during their four-game winning streak.

Bothering Jalen Hurts will be a different story. Philadelphia’s offensive line is much better than the four blocking units the Cowboys defeated during their winning streak. When healthy, the Eagles have an elite front. This wasn’t the case this past Sunday when Jason Kelce and Landon Dickerson went down with injuries, but they eventually returned to action.

Hurts having time in the pocket – and also being able to escape pressure using his legs – will be a huge boon for the Eagles. The Cowboys’ secondary hasn’t been tested in quite some time, and I expect A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert to thrive.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys aren’t the only team that can generate a heavy pressure. The Eagles bring a ton of heat on opposing quarterbacks, and I don’t trust Dallas’ front as much as do Philadelphia’s.

I suspect either Cooper Rush or Dak Prescott will be under heavy pressure. Rush could do well if the Eagles sent extra pass rushers because he has done very well against the blitz thus far, but Philadelphia often rushes four players – unless it’s battling Kirk Cousins, apparently. Rush/Prescott will be swarmed, and their receivers won’t be open because of Philadelphia’s dual shutdown cornerbacks.

The Cowboys won’t get much on the ground either. Tony Pollard may break a long gain, but he and Ezekiel Elliott will be bottled up for the most part. The Eagles are terrific against the run; they’ve shut down Dalvin Cook and the Jaguar backs thus far.

RECAP: I think we’re getting good value with this spread. This line is exactly what the Rams were favored by over Dallas, so this is telling us that the Eagles and injury-ravaged Rams are the same. That’s obviously incorrect. This line should have been closer to a touchdown, but everyone wants to be on the Cowboys right now, which allowed the sportsbooks to price down this spread. Thus, we’re getting some valuable key numbers with the Eagles.

With that in mind, there’s one thing to consider: Prescott may return to action this week. If he does, I’ll love he Eagles even more because it’s unlikely that he’ll be 100 percent. His injury is the same as the one Russell Wilson suffered last year, and Wilson began playing way earlier than he should have. The result was the Seahawks getting demolished in some games with low offensive output.

Either way, the Eagles are going to be a big play for me. I love being able to fade the Cowboys in this spot. Dallas deserves credit for winning four consecutive games, but what have they really done? Their best wins were over an exhausted Cincinnati squad that played five quarters and then took the Cowboys lightly, as well as the Rams, who are severely banged up. The other wins were over the fraudulent 4-1 Giants and miserable Redskins.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has risen to -6 because it sounds like Cooper Rush will start. I still like the Eagles, but it’s a bummer that Dallas isn’t rushing Dak Prescott back early.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps are on the Eagles, moving this line to -6.5, perhaps because CeeDee Lamb missed Friday’s practice with a hip injury. The Eagles, meanwhile, are completely clean injury-wise. Jordan Mailata and Avonte Maddox will return, and no starter will be sidelined. This will be a five-unit pick.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still love the Eagles, even at -6.5. I don’t know if this gets to -7 because the sportsbooks may think some sharp action could come in on Dallas. The sharps have been on the Eagles.

FINAL THOUGHTS: CeeDee Lamb and Jason Peters will play, but Dallas will miss Dalton Schultz. I love the Eagles, and so do the sharps. The best line is -6.5 -112 at Bookmaker. Hopefully our bad luck turns around.

Denver Broncos (2-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-2)
Line: Chargers by 4.5. Total: 45.5.
Monday, Oct. 17, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to San Diego, the capital of California! Tonight, we have the Denver Broncos versus the San Diego Chargers. Guys, no one cares about this stupid game, so do you think I’ll be able to leave early? I need to find a place to sleep tonight because Mother disowned me, and no one will let me stay with them. Unless, Emmitt, do you think I can sleep in your bed? You can sleep on the couch.

Emmitt: Carson Reilly, the last time you comed to my house, you drawed mustaches on pictures I has of my belovement friend that I use to play with when I was the quarterback of the Cowboy. Tony Aikment, Michael Irving, and Wayne Newton all their picture now has mustaches on them, and I knowed it was you because you say that the stupid Cowboy now look like fool, and as my dad, Emmitt Smith Sr. the Jr. III Sr. Esq. say, “Fool me once, shame on yourselfs, fool me two once, shame on guy with mustache because he a fool.”

Reilly: Emmitt, I know that saying very well because I know it’s fake news. Mother told me it’s fake news because she told me that women with mustaches are great because she has a mustache! Hey, Tolly, can I sleep at your place?

Tollefson: Kevin, I’d invite you to stay at my place, but there’s just no space for you. I hope you understand because I’m your friend, but you are not invited under any circumstances, and if you show up, I will sick my rabid dogs on you. These dogs are trained to attack my women slaves who slack on the job, but they will attack you under my command. And I say this as a friend.

Reilly: Tolly, I understand, you’re a great friend. I just don’t know what to do. Maybe I should ask Adam Schefter. Adam, can I sleep at your place?

Adam Schefter: Kevin, I have breaking news for you, straight from Jeffrey Lurie’s desk, Kevin. My sources tell me that Kevin is not allowed at my house, and the sources say that it’s because Kevin is a total loser. Back to you, Kevin!

Reilly: Whoa, whoa, whoa, no way would Jeffrey Lurie authorize that report! Mr. Laurie said I’m the coolest guy when he signed my Eagles poster last month! Maybe I can stay at Mr. Lurie’s mansion.

Goodell: Greetings, fellow hu-man. I have a message from Philadelphia Eagles owner Jeffrey Robert Lurie, which he has recorded using hologram technology. All hu-mans are capable of playing hologram videos from their body, so I am hu-man like all other hu-mans. Here is the hologram video: “Hey, kid, this is Jeff Lurie. I signed your poster, but that doesn’t mean that you can stalk me outside my house every night! Please don’t harm me or my family. Help me, Charles Davis, you’re my only hope to keep this creep away.”

Reilly: Jeffrey Lurie must be talking about some other loser because he’s a great friend! I guess I can’t sleep in his trash cans anymore. What about the presidents? Can I sleep at your houses?

Joe Biden: Listen here, Jack! You can sleep at the White House if I win the election to be president of the United States. My name’s Joe Biden and I’m running for the Senate. Now, I was raised in a black church down in Mississippi. The house mother, Old Yeller, they called her until they had to put her down, she let anyone sleep on the couch. I was one of those young pups sleeping on the couch in that Puerto Rican church, and let me tell you, there were some beauties in that house. I was 32, and she was 12, only 40 years apart, but there was some great passion when she touched my hairy legs in the shower.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, did anyone hear what Sleepy Joe just said? Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe said he was in a black church, and then he was in a Puerto Rican church. Those are two different churches, believe me, no one knows more about churches than I do, and believe me, there’s a yuge difference between black churches and Puerto Rican churches, yuge, and let me tell you, Sleepy Joe wasn’t at either of them, believe me, he wasn’t at any church, except for maybe the gay church, and I’m a fan of the gays, and the gays love me, let me tell you, no one likes me more than the gays, and I don’t like anyone more than gays, believe me, everyone will tell you that it’s true, at least that’s what I was told, but no, Kevin, you can’t sleep at my house because you’re a total loser and a total disgrace.

Wolfley: KEVIN, I WOULD LET YOU SLEEP ON MY COUCH OR BED, BUT I OWN NO FURNITURE. WHEN I NEED SLEEP, I CREATE A COCOON WITH LIPS AND SEAL MYSELF AWAY FOR 12 HOURS.

Reilly: Guys, what the hell! I need a place to stay now that I can’t use Jeffrey Lurie’s trash cans! New Daddy, can you make me a key so I can sleep in the basement?

Jay Cutler: I’d totally do that, but that requires me to move, so I’ll pass.

Reilly: Come on, New Daddy! Don’t make me ask Charles Davis!

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you need a place to sleep, Kevin, and I’ve been summoned by Jeffrey Lurie to help, Kevin, so let me tell you where to sleep, Kevin. What do you think about the local park, Kevin? How about a tent city, Kevin? Let me know your thoughts on abandoned buildings, Kevin. Can you tell me what you think about benches, Kevin? Fire up any thoughts about an abandoned vehicle, Kevin. The elephant in the room is a storage unit, Kevin. Tell me what you think about the sidewalk, Kevin. You can sleep in all of those places, Kevin!

Reilly: SHUT UP, CHARLES DAVIS, I TRIED ALL OF THOSE PLACES, AND I’VE BEEN KICKED OUT OF ALL OF THEM, A**HOLE! We’ll be back after this!

DENVER OFFENSE: Russell Wilson has been playing far below his talent level this season, particularly in the red zone. We finally discovered why a few days ago. It was revealed that Wilson is playing through a shoulder injury. It was so bad that he was given an injection for the pain.

Wilson plans on playing through the injury, but that isn’t necessarily a good thing. If you’re wondering why, just remember what happened last year. Wilson returned early from his broken thumb and couldn’t grip the ball all that well. The result was some ugly losses before Wilson finally got healthy at the end of the season.

Wilson was already behind the eight ball regarding some of the injuries around him. The Broncos will be missing multiple offensive linemen, including Garett Bolles, as well as Javonte Williams. The Chargers, however, don’t have Joey Bosa available, and they happen to be weak versus the run. I’d love Denver’s chances of exploiting this despite the incompetence of their coach, but Wilson’s injury could prevent that from happening.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Broncos have some injury concerns on this side of the ball. They now have three players on injured reserve, as Randy Gregory and Ronald Darby joined Justin Simmons on the list. Simmons is eligible to return this week, but it’s not yet clear if he will.

Denver needs all the help it can get against the Charger offense, which scored at will against the Browns last week. Austin Ekeler dashed through the Cleveland defense with ease, and he could have some success against the middle of Denver’s defense. Keenan Allen’s return will also help; Allen seemed close to playing last week, so he could be available.

That said, I wouldn’t expect Justin Herbert to thrive in this matchup. He won’t have his left tackle, and he’ll be battling a defense that blitzes very often. Herbert isn’t as bad as he was against the blitz in 2021, but he’s still much better when seeing a four-man rush. Against the blitz this season, Herbert is 27-of-45 for 350 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions.

RECAP: After the Broncos lost to the Colts on national TV, I asked a question on Twitter: “What do you think the line will be for Broncos at Chargers?” Most people guessed in the -6.5 to -7.5 range. This excited me because I knew the advance line was -4.5. That would be quite the overreaction! Sure, losing to the Colts was not a good thing, but the Broncos repeatedly put themselves in position to win and would have way more time to prepare for this game than the Chargers.

The Broncos seemed like a great side, and I planned to place a large wager on them. However, Wilson’s injury scares me. I still have bad memories of betting on Wilson last year when he returned from his broken thumb. He was horrible when he returned prematurely, and something tells me that he should be resting this time as well. It’s a different injury, but it’s the same Wilson. He’s a fierce competitor, but that can be a fault when he should be spending time improving his health.

Given Wilson’s health concerns, I’m going to side with the Chargers. I love fading overreactions, but I don’t want to be on an injured quarterback either. I won’t be betting this game because of the uncertainty.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s sharp money coming on the Broncos, and I get it. If Russell Wilson is healthy, Denver is definitely the right side. I just worry about him playing through injury once again.

SATURDAY NOTES: Justin Simmons, who is questionable to play, called this a “must win” for his team. This would be music to my ears if I trusted Russell Wilson’s health. If Wilson is 100 percent, the Broncos will cover this spread or perhaps win outright. If not, then the Chargers will beat the number, especially with Josey Jewell and Dalton Risner sidelined. Nathaniel Hackett said Wilson was “unlimited” this week, but can we really trust him?

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: If you like the Chargers, there’s a -4 -113 line at Bookmaker. The sharps have been on the Broncos though.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve been thinking about this game, and while I’m very concerned about Russell Wilson’s health, and I can’t deny that the Broncos have some huge advantages in this game. They have the better defense and offensive line, especially in the wake of the inactives. Denver will be getting back all of its injured blockers, while the Chargers will be without both Rashawn Slater and Corey Linsley. The sharps love Denver at every possible number, and I’ve warmed up to them as well. This won’t be a big wager because I’m concerned about Wilson’s status, but I’m now betting on the Broncos. The best line is +4 -115 at Bovada.