NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 18, 2021

New England Patriots (10-6) at Miami Dolphins (8-8)
Line: Patriots by 6. Total: 40.
Sunday, Jan. 9, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: Bill Belichick tends to dominate young quarterbacks, and we saw this dynamic occur in the season opener when these teams met for the first time this year. Tua Tagovailoa didn’t post horrendous numbers – he went 16-of-27 for 202 yards, one touchdown and an interception – but it was the pick that would have lost the game for Miami had Damien Harris not fumbled while in field goal range.

Tagovailoa figures to struggle once again. He was horrible against the Titans, as his pass protection didn’t hold up at all versus Tennessee’s front. The blocking will be even worse this week because the Patriots rank third in pressure rate.

The Patriots are weaker to the run than the pass, but that’s not a complete liability. Even if it were, there’s no guarantee the Dolphins would be able to take advantage of that, given that they struggle to rush the ball.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: While the Patriots are slightly above average against the run, the Dolphins struggle at stopping that aspect of opposing offenses. We saw this last week when D’Onta Foreman trampled them. Harris and Rhamdondre Stevenson will pick up big chunks on the ground in this contest.

Conversely, the strength of the Dolphins’ defense is shutting down outside receivers, thanks to their two talented cornerbacks and blitz-heavy approach. The Dolphins struggle, however, when battling a team with a quarterback who handles the blitz well and can also utilize his tight ends. That describes the Patriots’ offense accurately. Mac Jones has been stellar versus the blitz, especially in the second half of the season. He’ll heavily target Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, both of whom figure to exploit this matchup.

RECAP: At first glance, there’s some amazing line value with Miami in this game. The advance spread was New England -2.5, yet the line is now -6.5 or -7, depending on the sportsbook. Under normal circumstances, I’d hammer the Dolphins. We’re getting plenty of line value with them, including all of the key numbers except for seven.

However, there are multiple things to consider. First, the Dolphins match up poorly versus the Patriots in almost every regard. Second, how in the world are the Dolphins going to get up for this game? They won seven games in a row, working so hard to get back into playoff contention, yet they had their postseason aspirations snatched away from them in the wake of last week’s results. I can’t see them bringing 100-percent effort, so I’m going to be on the Patriots. This will just be a small wager because of the horrible line value.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jacob and I had our biggest disagreement on this game. Check out the video below to listen to our arguments about it!

SATURDAY NOTES: I did a lot of thinking about this game, and I’ve decided I’m going to be on Jacob’s side. Not only that; I’m going to bet several units on the Dolphins! This line adjustment is way too much, so we now get every key number except seven. Miami, while eliminated from the playoffs, may want to redeem itself off such an embarrassing loss. Also, if the Bills are way ahead of the Jets, the Patriots won’t have any incentive to win this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have been betting the Dolphins, so I want to lock in this pick before the line drops even further. I can’t find anything better than the +6 -110 across the board.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The line hasn’t dropped as I thought it might, so the sharps bet the Dolphins at +7 and +6.5, but not +6. The best line is +6 -108 at Bookmaker.

Patriots at Dolphins Pick with More Details.

New York Jets (4-12) at Buffalo Bills (10-6)
Line: Bills by 16. Total: 41.
Sunday, Jan. 9, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen did not play his best against the Falcons, which was surprising. He threw some interceptions and was responsible for a safety. This allowed Atlanta to hang around and ultimately cover, yet the Bills still managed to prevail by two touchdowns.

Allen should be sharper in this game, considering that he won’t be coming off an emotional victory against the Patriots like last week. Allen figures to thrive against a Jets defense that can’t stop anyone. They’re 31st in pass defense DVOA, and they’re especially bad against slot receivers and tight ends. This obviously bodes well for Cole Beasley and Dawson Knox. Of course, the Jets don’t stand much of a chance against Stefon Diggs either, especially considering that they’ll have to pay attention to Allen’s mobility as well.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Zach Wilson has performed better than normal in the past couple of weeks, but he also hasn’t endured tough matchups either. The Jaguars are a joke, while the usually potent Buccaneers were missing their top two edge rushers and were naturally weaker against the pass as a result.

Things will be much different for Wilson this week. The Bills have the top pressure rate in the NFL, so they’ll put tons of heat on Wilson, who will once again be missing his top receivers unless Elijah Moore returns from his quad injury. Wilson will display poor mechanics as a consequence, resulting in some turnovers.

The Jets will attempt to establish Michael Carter to keep the ball out of Allen’s hands. Given the absences of the top receivers, however, the Bills can play closer to the line of scrimmage. Also, the Bills may establish a huge lead right away, which will nullify the ground attack.

RECAP: Wow, a 17-point line? How can the Bills possibly cover the -17 when they had trouble putting away the Falcons, and the Jets nearly beat the Buccaneers?

This line was set high for a reason. The Bills are likely to demolish the Jets like they have almost every single poor opponent they’ve faced this year. Wilson is at too much of a disadvantage against a strong defensive-minded coach like Sean McDermott, while the Jets’ defense won’t be able to do anything to stop Allen and Buffalo’s offense.

As for the Jets’ sudden improvement, yes, they nearly beat the Buccaneers, but Tampa Bay was missing so many starters. The last time the Jets battled another team in the upper half of overall DVOA, they lost 30-9 to the Saints. The week before, the Eagles beat them by 15 despite starting their backup quarterback. I don’t see the Jets being competitive with the Bills, and I’m willing to bet on that.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s been a bit of sharp action on the Jets, but I’m going to remain on the Bills. I don’t see how the Jets can be competitive with Buffalo.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m dropping my units on this game because it’s going to be extremely windy. It may be difficult for the Bills to cover such a high spread without being able to throw all over the Jets.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Again, the weather is the issue in this game. I still like the Bills, but I’m not betting this contest.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been a bit of sharp money on the Jets at +17, probably because of the wind. The pros haven’t been on the Jets at +16, however. If you like the Bills, the best line is -16 -105 at BetUS and Bovada.

Jets at Bills Pick with More Details.

Carolina Panthers (5-11) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-4)
Line: Buccaneers by 10.5. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Jan. 9, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

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RESTED STARTERS: The Buccaneers can’t get the No. 1 seed anymore. They’re still playing for 2-4 seeding, but I don’t think they’ll care because they won the Super Bowl out of the No. 5 seed last year. Given how banged up they are, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if some of their starters played early and then sat for a chunk of this game. Thus, I’m not going to handicap the matchup.

RECAP: I considered locking in the Panthers on Monday. I reached out to Jacob Camenker from our picks podcast and asked him if he thought the Buccaneers would rest their starters. Jacob opined that Tom Brady would play to get into a rhythm with his new receivers, but veterans like Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski would rest.

I could buy that. However, I could also buy Brady playing just a half, especially if the Buccaneers open up a multi-touchdown lead. If so, you’d need to avoid Blaine Gabbert and a skeleton-crew defense surrendering a back-door cover. There’s no way I want to be in that position. Then again, if you bet the Panthers, and Brady plays the entire game, then you should have just lit your money on fire because the Panthers are not competitive at all.

I’m going to side with the Panthers for now, but if we hear news that Brady will play the entire game, I’ll consider switching to the Buccaneers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No word yet on the Buccaneers playing their starters. I’ll be a bit surprised if Tom Brady is on the field for all 60 minutes.

SATURDAY NOTES: We are still awaiting news on Tom Brady. The Buccaneers will be missing six total starters – three on each side of the ball – if all the other regular starters take the field. I would take the Panthers at the advance line of +16.5, but +8 is pretty tight without knowing anything about Brady.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has moved to +10. The public is smashing the Buccaneers, as they are convinced that Tom Brady plays most of the game. I would not bet this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line has risen to +10.5. The sharps haven’t touched this game for the most part, and I don’t have any interest in betting it either.

Panthers at Buccaneers Pick with More Details.

New Orleans Saints (8-8) at Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
Line: Saints by 4.5. Total: 40.
Sunday, Jan. 9, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

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NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: I don’t know how the Saints covered the seven-point spread against the Panthers. It really took a dreadful performance by Carolina’s offense because the Saints’ “scoring” unit was anemic in that contest as well. Taysom Hill generated decent fantasy numbers, but the Saints had problems moving the chains in that contest for the most part. They averaged just 4.8 yards per play.

Things could be different this week, and not just because of the matchup. There’s a good chance that the Saints will get back some of their offensive linemen. The last time the Saints had both Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk on the field at the same time was Week 9. Armstead seemed close to playing last week, while Ramczyk could be removed from the virus list. If they’re both back, the Saints’ offense is going to be so much more explosive.

Of course, the matchup can be considered as well. The Falcons generate no pass rush, and they can’t cover anyone not going against A.J. Terrell. They’ll also have to worry about Hill’s rushing ability.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Saints have a highly ranked defense, yet Matt Ryan torched it in the Week 9 matchup between these teams. Ryan went 23-of-30 for 343 yards and two touchdowns. Atlanta jumped out to a huge lead before winning at the end following an inexplicable comeback led by Trevor Siemian.

The Saints weren’t missing any key personnel in that contest, so it could be argued that they just match up poorly against the Falcons. New Orleans excels at erasing the opposing top receiver, but the Falcons don’t exactly have one. There’s Russell Gage, but Ryan likes to spread around the ball. He doesn’t need Gage to move the chains.

Furthermore, the Falcons don’t run the ball effectively, which doesn’t play into the Saints’ strength. New Orleans has one of the NFL’s top run-stuffing units, but Atlanta can’t really rush well against anyone anyway.

RECAP: The Aurora Snowmo Effect certainly applies in this game. The Saints need to win to make the playoffs, and everyone expects them to, so they could easily choke.

Furthermore, given that people know the Saints must prevail, this line has been inflated. New Orleans is favored by 4.5, yet my line is just -2. If I’m correct, this spread is on the wrong side of three, so I like the value we’re getting with the Falcons.

I’m going to be on Atlanta. The unit count will depend on the availability of the two Saints tackles. If they’re both out again, this will be a big play.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ryan Ramczyk popped off the virus list, so there’s a chance he could play. I won’t be heavy on the Falcons if the Saints get at least one tackle back.

SATURDAY NOTES: Terron Armstead is out. Ryan Ramczyk will probably play, though he was limited all week in practice with a knee injury, so he may not be 100 percent. If he’s not completely healthy, it’ll be difficult for the Saints to cover this spread, given their offensive woes.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s been sharp money on the Saints, so perhaps this line will continue to climb. I’d love to get +6. We’ll see what happens before kickoff.

FINAL THOUGHTS: So much for +6! The sharps bet the Saints at -3.5 and -4, but not -4.5. I still like the Falcons quite a bit. I don’t see a better line than the standard -4.5 -110.

Saints at Falcons Pick with More Details.

Seattle Seahawks (6-10) at Arizona Cardinals (11-5)
Line: Cardinals by 6. Total: 48.
Sunday, Jan. 9, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: Russell Wilson may have finally been 100 percent last week. He looked healthier in recent games, but occasionally had some bad throws. He was nearly perfect against the Lions despite missing two offensive linemen.

Wilson will look to redeem himself from a loss to the Cardinals earlier in the season. Wilson really struggled in that contest, but he’ll obviously be a much different quarterback in the rematch, at least from a health perspective. However, the Cardinals excel at defending the opposing No. 1 receiver, which is why D.K. Metcalf seldom produces against Arizona. It’s usually Tyler Lockett who thrives, but Lockett hasn’t been 100 percent since returning from his illness.

There is good news for the Seahawks, and that would be that their running game has a stronger outlook. Rashaad Penny has been stellar in recent weeks, which doesn’t bode well for the Cardinals, who have struggled against the rush since losing J.J. Watt.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals demolished the Seahawks in the first matchup between these teams, and yet Seattle didn’t even have to stop Kyler Murray. Despite facing Colt McCoy, they surrendered 413 net yards of offense.

Arizona obviously is much different with Murray, who was stellar against the Cowboys last week. Murray has a great matchup in this contest, given how bad Seattle is against the pass. The Seahawks just surrendered 29 points to the Tim Boyle-led Lions. They struggle to cover and can’t pressure the quarterback at all.

The Seahawks are better against the run than the pass, but it’s not like they’re great in that regard. James Conner may return this week, and if so, he and Chase Edmonds will pick up chunks of yards as receivers out of the backfield.

RECAP: Arguments can be made for betting either team. On one hand, the Cardinals seem like the right side. They match up well against the Seahawks on both sides of the ball. Their defense can stop the Seattle offense by taking away Metcalf, while the offense can score on Seattle’s miserable defensive unit. I made this line Arizona -9, so if that’s correct, this line is on the wrong side of seven, which is a key number.

On the other hand, Wilson has a terrific track record of covering the spread as a huge underdog. He’s 24-12 against the spread as an underdog in general, so imagine what that record would be when Wilson is an underdog of six or more points. Actually, you don’t even need to imagine because I’ll tell you. He’s 5-2 against the spread in this situation. We’re getting all the key numbers with Seattle, which wasn’t the case on the advance line, which was Arizona -5. This line shifted two points, across a pair of key numbers, based on last week’s result. That seems like too much of an overreaction.

As you might be able to tell, I have a stronger convinction with my Seattle argument. Besides, backing elite quarterbacks with tons of points is often a winning proposition. I’m going to stick with that by siding with Seattle.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is a huge reactionary spread. The Cowboys had struggled offensively for the most part, so Arizona winning in Dallas wasn’t too much of a surprise. With that in mind, this line shouldn’t have moved from -5 to -7.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps are betting the Seahawks, which is hardly a surprise. I’m going to increase my unit count to five, and I’m going to lock in the +6 -117 at Bookmaker before the number continues to drop.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m glad I locked in the Seahawks because this line has continued to drop to +5.5, or even +5 in some sportsbooks. The sharps love Seattle.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line has dropped all the way to +5. The sharps love the Seahawks, so I’m glad I locked in the +6. I don’t see a viable +6 remaining anywhere.

Seahawks at Cardinals Pick with More Details.

San Francisco 49ers (9-7) at Los Angeles Rams (12-4)
Line: Rams by 3.5. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Jan. 9, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford did not play well against the Vikings or Ravens the past two weeks. Stafford threw three interceptions at Minnesota, and while he accumulated 309 yards and two touchdowns at Baltimore, he was also picked twice. If it wasn’t for a punt return touchdown, the Rams may have lost to Minnesota, and if it wasn’t for Tyler Huntley’s own interception, the Rams may have suffered a defeat last week.

It’s not like the Vikings and Ravens have great pass defenses. I wrote last week that Stafford’s chronic back problems may be weighing him down. I’m sure Stafford has some good days, but back issues can flare up at any point without warning. It would explain all of his recent interceptions against bad pass defenses.

With that in mind, there’s no guarantee Stafford will play well against the 49ers’ porous cornerbacks. He’ll get some pressure from Nick Bosa and company, and he won’t be able to lean on Sony Michel because the 49ers have a stout run defense.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The Rams are also stellar against the run. Elijah Mitchell will be in his second game back from injury, but he’ll be in a very difficult matchup.

That said, I still expect the 49ers to have success moving the ball, even if Trey Lance is forced into starting again. Lance had some issues last week with his pocket awareness, but his mobility was used to keep some drives alive, and he made a few big plays.

San Francisco loves attacking the middle of the field and will always have success against teams that can’t defend that well. Conversely, they’ll have problems moving the chains against teams that are stout in this area, like the Titans. The Rams, conversely, struggle at defending the middle of the field, which is why San Francisco’s offense has had so much success against the Rams’ defense over the past several seasons.

RECAP: This spread doesn’t make any sense. The Rams are -4 versus the 49ers, which is the same number as we saw last week when they visited the Ravens before the line ballooned to +6.5. However, San Francisco is much better than Baltimore. The 49ers are seventh in overall team DVOA, while Baltimore is 19th. I know there’s a different site dynamic, but teams these days get just one point for home-field advantage. The 49ers are definitely two points better than the Ravens!

I love the value we’re getting with the 49ers. These teams are close to even, so Los Angeles should be -2, perhaps -3 at most. The DVOA spread is -2 as well. All of this, by the way, isn’t even factoring the perpetual edge San Francisco has over the Rams in this matchup. The Rams haven’t beaten the 49ers since 2018, and I expect things to remain that way.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It seems like the sharps are split on this game. I still love the 49ers, as this spread is way too high.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m going to have to downgrade this to “TBA units” for now because the 49ers’ entire secondary was sent onto the virus list, including Jimmie Ward and K’Waun Williams. If they can be activated, I’ll still love the 49ers, but I don’t see how San Francisco covers anyone in this game otherwise, regardless of Matthew Stafford’s back injury.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The 49ers activated their sick players, so that’s a huge boon for the 49ers. This has prompted the sharps to bet San Francisco heavily. I will be doing the same, albeit for less than I originally planned because we lost line value.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I thought about reverting to my original five units, but we lost some line value, and I’m a bit worried about Jimmy Garoppolo’s thumb injury. I’ll still bet three units on the 49ers. The best line is +3.5 -110 at FanDuel. The sharps are on San Francisco.

49ers at Rams Pick with More Details.

Los Angeles Chargers (9-7) at Las Vegas Raiders (9-7)
Line: Chargers by 3.5. Total: 49.
Sunday, Jan. 9, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Las Vegas, where tonight, the Oakland Raiders will play the San Diego Chargers! As some of you may have heard, I was fired again last week for a fake e-mail of mine that leaked where I called Roger Goodell a farter. I’ve reclaimed my job again, and thank goodness for that because Mother said she would take away my allowance if I got fired. I need my allowance money to buy Philadelphia Eagles bobblehead dolls.

Emmitt: The Front Man, it really surprise to see you running the show again. You got fire many time already, which mean you the opposite of cold because fire are hot most of the time, but sometime he cold, like when he blue.

Reilly: Wrong, Emmitt! I just learned in home-schooling class that blue fire is the hottest fire. New Daddy tried to cheat off me on the test, but I wouldn’t let him.

Jay Cutler: Yeah, seriously, what a dick.

Tollefson: I wouldn’t go that far, Jay. Cheating on tests is serious business. I give my female sex slaves STD tests all the time, and there are repercussions for those who test positive. There are even worse repercussions for those who attempt to cheat on their tests, believe me!

Reilly: Tolly, I wish I could conduct cool tests like you all the time. Any girl who refuses to go out on a date with me would fail miserably. Of course, this would have to occur after Mother gives me the green light to talk to girls. She says I’m a late bloomer and- wait a second, Adam Schefter is somehow crawling out of the desk drawer!

Schefter: Thanks, Kevin, I borrowed a device from a scientist who shrunk me so that I would be able to see Omicron and avoid the particles. I’ve used up so many tests over the weeks that there are no longer any remaining. I waited in line for a test for three days even though I don’t have any symptoms, but I had to go to work, so duty called! Anyway, I have breaking news from around the NFL to report, Kevin, and it involves yet another e-mail from you, Kevin. I talked to Dave Gettleman, who told me I could report this news. Guys, here’s the latest e-mail from Kevin: “All this talk about Mike Ditka being my real daddy makes me grateful that Roger Goodell isn’t my real daddy because he’s such a total farter that he’s an SBD – silent but deadly. Except he’s butt as in butt hole instead of the regular but.”

Reilly: I did not write that even though it came from my e-mail account! Someone is purposely trying to get me fired so that I can’t buy more Eagles bobblehead dolls!

Joe Biden: Dolls are great. I gave my girlfriend a doll for her Easter present. She thought it came from that guy, you know, you know the thing. The thing with the red, you know, and the white hair on the face that is almost like the white hair on my hairy legs. The kids at the pool used to touch my hairy legs until one man named Cornelius Bananabottoms touched my hairy legs, and I said, “Hey, Cornelius Bananabottoms, you’re too old to touch my hairy legs.” He got real mad, and trust me, he was a real bad dude. He went by the nickname Cocoa Pebbles, and he was real mad that I didn’t use his nickname. He told me that he would beat me up in the parking lot, but I grabbed the spaghetti sauce from the rocketship, and then Captain Crunch and I went on a double date with the youngest girls at the movie theater.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Creepy Joe is clearly making stuff up! He began talking about Santa Claus, and believe me, I know Santa Claus, great guy that Santa Claus, I sold him some property at the North Pole. Some would say that I’m best friends with Santa Claus, and everyone agrees, but that’s what people are saying, so don’t take my word for it. But Sleepy, Creepy Joe called Cornelius Bananabottoms “Cocoa Pebbles” and then “Captain Crunch,” but I’m great friends with Cornelius Bananabottoms, great guy that Cornelius Baananabottoms, but his real nickname is Apple Toast Crunch. Sleepy, Creepy Joe has no idea who Cornelius Bananabottoms is. He’s not even friends with him. I call it, fake friend. This is a great term I made up, and everyone says it’s a great term, maybe even the greatest term, and everyone agrees.

Wolfley: DONALD, WHEN I WAS YOUNGER, I HAD AN IMAGINARY FRIEND, BUT IF I CALLED HIM FAKE FRIEND, MAYBE MY PARENTS WOULDN’T HAVE SENT ME TO THERAPY FOR MY ENTIRE LIFE. THIS REMINDS ME, GUYS, I NEED TO DUCK OUT OF HERE IN THE THIRD QUARTER TO GO TO THERAPY.

Reilly: Therapy is for losers! Anyone with issues should just sit down with their mother and cry into her bosom. That’s the only therapy you need.

Jay Cutler: And yet this a**hole won’t let me cheat off his test.

Reilly: New Daddy, you need to ace the test on your own, or how are you going to learn!?

Roger Goodell: Hello, everyone. I am your hu-man NFL commissioner, Roger Goodell. I, like all hu-mans, learn as well. In fact, on the last pop quiz in which I participated, I scored – generating random number – 719511 points. I scored 719511 points on my latest pop quiz, which is a score hu-mans consider exemplary. My score of – 719511 points – is graded as system error. My score of – 719511 points – is graded as system error. My score of – 719511 points – is graded as system error. System error. Rebooting. Rebooting.

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like the Roger Goodell machine isn’t firing you this week, Kevin, because it’s stuck in an error, Kevin. The software never set a cap on its maximum score, Kevin, so because the score was over 100, Kevin, there was no letter grade to assign to the score, Kevin. Whoever programmed the Roger Goodell robot did a poor job, Kevin. Let’s talk about some other computer errors, Kevin. Let’s begin with a runtime error, Kevin. What do you think about syntax errors, Kevin? How about resource errors, Kevin? Surely you’ve thought about compilation errors, Kevin. Then there are Kevin Reilly errors, Kevin, which occur when fat losers who live with their mother try to use the computer, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS! MOTHER SAYS I’M A COMPUTER EXPERT, SO I COULD NEVER CAUSE A KEVIN REILLY EFFORT, YOU A**HOLE! We’ll be back after this!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Justin Herbert had a great performance against the Raiders back when these teams met in Week 4. Herbert went 25-of-38 for 222 yards and three touchdowns in that victory, which wasn’t a surprise because he matched up well against the Raiders. Herbert tends to struggle versus the blitz, and the Raiders blitz the least in the NFL.

While Herbert was great against the Raiders, Keenan Allen was not. Allen had his worst output of the year outside of the Houston game, accumulating just 36 receiving yards. The reason for this was Nate Hobbs, who is one of the best slot cornerbacks in the NFL. However, Hobbs was arrested for a DUI Monday. He may not be available for this game, and if that’s the case, Allen will thrive.

The Raiders will at least do well against Austin Ekeler when he’s running the ball; Las Vegas’ defense is stellar against the run. However, Ekeler figures to abuse the Raiders’ linebackers as a receiver out of the backfield.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: While Hobbs potentially being out is a huge blow to the defense, the offense will get a boost with Darren Waller possibly returning to action. Waller hasn’t played since Thanksgiving, which would explain why the Raiders have scored more than 17 points only once since that game.

Waller’s return will obviously be huge for the Raiders. Not only is Waller one of the best intermediate weapons in the NFL; he has a great matchup in this contest, as the Chargers rank in the bottom 10 of DVOA defense against tight ends.

Josh Jacobs also figures to thrive in this matchup. The Chargers have one of the worst ground defenses in the league. It was just two weeks ago that they allowed Rex Burkhead look like the second coming of Earl Campbell.

RECAP: Even though Herbert has a nice matchup against the Raiders’ defense, the Chargers should not be field goal favorites in this contest. The Raiders also have their advantages, assuming Waller returns from injury.

If Waller returns, this line is definitely wrong. I made this line Las Vegas -1. Maybe people will disagree with that, but the Chargers are overrated. They’re about in the middle of the pack in overall DVOA, and they were outgained by 0.5 yards per play against the Broncos – this just one week after they were blown out by Houston.

Perhaps I’m wrong, but I believe the two most likely results of this contest are the Chargers and Raiders winning by three in some order. We get a win and a push by going with the home dog.

One more thing to consider: If the Jaguars beat the Colts, which is more likely than people think, both of these teams will make the playoffs with a tie. There’s some speculation that there will be collusion between these teams to just end the game in a 0-0 tie. I don’t think this scenario will happen, but if it does, we get the spread win with the Raiders +3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Darren Waller practiced for the first time in more than a month. We saw what Travis Kelce did to the Chargers, so Waller’s presence will be huge.

SATURDAY NOTES: Darren Waller was limited in practice all week, so there’s a chance he’ll play. That’s not the only good news for the Raiders: Nate Hobbs is expected to play despite his DUI. The Raiders are looking better right now, but Waller could always be ruled out.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re still waiting on news on Darren Waller, so check back around 7:45 p.m. for my final thoughts.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Darren Waller will play, so I’m going to be on the Raiders for three units. I’m buying up to +3.5, which you can do at Bookmaker for -119 vig. The sharps haven’t touched this game.

Chargers at Raiders Pick with More Details.