NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17, 2021

Denver Broncos (7-8) at Los Angeles Chargers (8-7)
Line: Chargers by 6. Total: 45.
Sunday, Jan. 2, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers’ loss to the Texans was shocking, to say the least. It would’ve surprised many if that game even happened to be close, given the betting action coming in on the double-digit-favorite Chargers. Yet, the Texans beat them by double digits themselves.

Justin Herbert played well in between the 20s, but struggled in the red zone. It wasn’t even a difficult matchup like this one will be. Herbert does not play well against teams that blitz heavily, and that’s what the Broncos do. Denver has the No. 9 blitz rate in the NFL. It used this tactic against Herbert in the first matchup between these teams, and the Chargers lost as a consequence.

The Chargers will have a chance of being productive on this side of the ball, however. The Broncos are horrible against the run because they’re missing multiple linebackers. Whether it’s Austin Ekeler or Justin Jackson, the Chargers will be able to rip through Denver’s porous ground defense.

DENVER OFFENSE: Speaking of bad run defenses, the Broncos will have even more success on the ground than the Chargers will. If you don’t believe me, just watch what Rex Burkhead did to the Chargers last week. Somewhere in a shack in the middle of an Alabama swamp, Bill O’Brien was watching the game and beaming. “This is why I wanted to trade Deshaun Watson for this great running back!” he undoubtedly shouted aloud.

O’Brien may want to cover his ears, or rather his eyes, but Burkhead is not a good player. He’s a mediocre plodder, and yet he looked like Earl Campbell against the Chargers. With that in mind, imagine what Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon will be able to accomplish. Williams will likely be more dominant, given that he’s the far superior player. I don’t know how the Broncos haven’t recognized that yet. Gordon is a good back, but Williams is special and deserves more touches.

The Broncos weren’t able to run on the Raiders’ 10th-ranked DVOA ground defense last week, but their fortunes will be reversed this Sunday. A superior rushing attack will make life easier for either Teddy Bridgewater or Drew Lock. Whichever quarterback starts will make good use of Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam, given San Angeles’ struggles against tight ends.

RECAP: The Chargers were trashed by the Texans last week, yet people want to bet them now. It turns out that the Chargers’ blowout loss at the hands of the Texans wasn’t nearly as bad as Denver’s 17-13 loss to the Raiders.

I guess, in a sense, it really wasn’t. The Broncos were outgained by about 200 yards, after all. However, that was a rough matchup for them. They couldn’t run on the Raiders, but they will be able to do so against the Chargers. Furthermore, their blitz-heavy approach didn’t bother Derek Carr at all, but it’ll give Herbert problems, just as it did when these teams met earlier in the year.

The Broncos match up well against the Chargers, which I suppose is why the sharps are betting on them. I just heard you roll your eyes and think, Ugh, here we go again with the sharps betting Denver, but I definitely see why they’re doing it this time. They have to be right about it eventually, right? The gambler’s fallacy says otherwise, I suppose, but these are smart people we’re talking about. Surely, there’s a reason why they’re constantly smitten with Denver.

Furthermore, I think this spread is too high, and everyone agrees. Not to sound like President Trump, but it’s true. My projected line is San Angeles -4. DVOA has it at the same figure. These teams are close, and the Chargers hold no home-field advantage. I even gave them half-a-point, which may have been too generous.

I’m definitely betting the Broncos. I’m actually going to lock in this pick now because the sharps may continue to bring this spread down. Plus, if Bridgewater clears concussion protocol, this line will drop. This will be a four-unit wager. The current best line is +6 -115 at Bovada.

SATURDAY NOTES: It figures the one team I’d lock in early would be the team ravaged by the virus list this week. The Broncos will be without numerous key players, including Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Bobby massie, Bradley Chubb and Bryce Callahan. I told you, I hate this season so much. They really need to stop testing because no NFL player is in any danger. At any rate, I would no longer recommend such a high bet on the Broncos, but I still like them a bit at this new price (2 units).

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Again, it sucks that we’re on the wrong side of this line because of all the Broncos’ illness issues. I’m not confident the Broncos cover the six, but I wouldn’t dismiss the possibility.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Chargers up to -8 earlier in the week, but some pro money has come in on the Broncos at +8, so that was nice to see. Again, it sucks that we got the bad end of the variance stick in this game. The best line is +7.5 -105 at FanDuel.

Broncos at Chargers Pick with More Details.

Houston Texans (4-11) at San Francisco 49ers (8-7)
Line: 49ers by 13. Total: 44.
Sunday, Jan. 2, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a fractured bone in his throwing thumb, so he could be sidelined for a while. That means it’ll be time for Trey Lance to take the reins, which might be a good thing for the short and long term.

Getting Lance experience is key for the future, but there’s reason to believe he’ll be an upgrade over Garoppolo right now. Kyle Shanahan raved about how Lance has progressed in practice, so it’s safe to say that he’ll look better than he did versus the Cardinals in his first start earlier in the year. Lance has the upside Garoppolo doesn’t possess; he’ll be able to beat Houston’s cornerbacks with deep passes and also run around the defenders using his great mobility.

Lance also has a great matchup in this game via the typical approach the 49ers take, which is attacking the middle of the field. The Texans don’t defend that area well. They’re horrible when trying to stop tight ends, so George Kittle will rebound from last week’s dud performance.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Davis Mills has gotten lots of praise lately, but it must be noted that he has only performed well versus opponents in the bottom half of pass defense DVOA. Conversely, he struggled mightily against those ranked in the top half of pass defense DVOA. The win over the Chargers continued the trend, with San Angeles being 23rd in that department. Mills’ previous three games against the Seahawks, Jaguars and Chargers have come against teams that have a pass defense DVOA ranks of 28th, 31st and 23rd.

The 49ers aren’t much better, coming in at 20th. This isn’t a surprise, given San Francisco’s dire injury issues at cornerback. The 49ers can get after the quarterback well, but they can’t defend anything downfield. Mills should continue to be a functional passer.

Mills, however, won’t be able to lean on the running game like he did in last week’s victory over the Chargers. While the Chargers are weak to the run, the 49ers are strong in that regard.

RECAP: This spread opened at -15 when it was believed Garoppolo would be playing. It re-opened at -13 and then dropped to -12.5 with Lance as the projected starter. It’s interesting that there’s a 2.5-point difference between the two quarterbacks when Garoppolo is coming off such a dreadful performance. Lance is raw, but possesses so much more upside.

Despite the quarterback switch, the 49ers will have their way with Houston’s defense. The Texans, conversely, won’t be able to run on the 49ers like they did against the Chargers, so I wonder if they’ll have any success, despite the 49ers’ issues at cornerback.

That said, it’s those very same issues that will have me on the Texans. I suppose I’m contradicting myself, but I believe there’s back-door potential because of those missing cornerbacks. The Texans could be down three touchdowns or so, only to cover with a 10-point outburst in the fourth quarter because Mills will have an easy time throwing into the 49ers’ secondary once San Francisco takes its foot off the gas.

It may not even come to that anyway. The Aurora Snowmo Effect applies to the 49ers, who could choke in a game they’re supposed to win. Thus, with all of that in mind, I’m going to have a medium-sized wager on the Texans.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Texans are pretty much getting everyone back this week, so this spread is way too high. I’m going to increase my unit count.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has moved to +13 with some sharp money coming in on San Francisco. I still like Houston a lot.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was more sharp money on the 49ers on Sunday morning after nothing all week. A +14 (-114) line is available at Bookmaker. It sucks to go against the sharps, but I like the Texans to keep this close.

Texans at 49ers Pick with More Details.

Arizona Cardinals (10-5) at Dallas Cowboys (11-4)
Line: Cowboys by 6.5. Total: 52.5.
Sunday, Jan. 2, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

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ARIZONA OFFENSE: It was so frustrating watching the Cardinals on Christmas night. They didn’t commit a turnover and punted only once, yet they scored just 16 points, three of which came on a garbage-time field goal. They were so inefficient when they got into Indianapolis territory, and Matt Prater couldn’t hit a kick if his life depended on it. Kliff Kingsbury’s horrid coaching didn’t help matters.

The Cardinals will be in a tougher matchup this week. Dallas’ defensive line is ridiculous, and it will put pressure on Kyler Murray. However, there is good news, and that would be the return of Rodney Hudson. The stud center has been out the past couple of weeks because of a minor illness, but he’s set to return this Sunday. He’s a huge difference-maker, as Arizona’s offense has been dysfunctional without him.

Another potential boost for the offense is James Conner’s possible return. The Cardinals have struggled in the red zone because they haven’t been able to generate anything on the ground. The Cowboys are sub par against the run, so Conner’s presence could help the Cardinals vivify their offense.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Dak Prescott was in a major slump heading into Sunday night. That narrative shattered in the wake of his great performance. He looked tremendous for the first time since he engineered a near-comeback against the Raiders in the second half of the Thanksgiving game.

That said, there’s some cause for skepticism. The Redskins were missing numerous significant starters on defense, making things much easier for Prescott. The Cardinals can generate pressure on the quarterback, although they do so while blitzing frequently. The Cardinals have the No. 4 blitz rate in the NFL, which doesn’t bode well in this matchup because Prescott is brilliant when blitzed.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys should be able to run well on the Cardinals. Arizona used to stop the run well, but that has changed in the wake of J.J. Watt’s injury. It’s no surprise that the Cardinals are now 3-5 without Watt.

RECAP: If this spread seems high to you, you may have been aware of what the advance line was. The Cowboys were -2.5 in this matchup prior to Week 16. Thanks to the Cardinals’ loss and Dallas’ win over the injury- and illness-ravaged Redskins, this spread has moved through the major key number of three and minor key number of four, all the way up to -5.5. We’re getting amazing spread value with the Cardinals.

However, if you think this spread is too low, you may not be wrong. The Cardinals have been a disaster ever since losing both Watt and DeAndre Hopkins. They’re 3-5 in their previous eight games. Two of their wins were against the low-effort Seahawks and 49ers when Colt McCoy started, and the third came versus Chicago. The Cardinals were demolished by the Lions two weeks ago and failed to rebound versus Indianapolis despite the Colts missing four offensive linemen.

The Cowboys, conversely, have been hot lately. However, their wins have come against the depleted Redskins and Giants. Not counting the Saints because they had numerous injuries and were starting an injured quarterback, the last time the Cowboys battled a team in the top 20 DVOA, they lost 19-9 against the Chiefs.

I wish I had more confidence in the Cardinals, but I think this line is inflated, especially with Hudson due back on the field. I’ll be on Arizona, but I’m not sure if I’ll be able to summon the courage to place a big wager on this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Rodney Hudson will play, which is huge. The Cardinals have had issues with their snaps in recent weeks, but that won’t be an issue with Hudson back in the lineup. With this line now at +6, I’m going to increase my unit count.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Let’s see if we can get +7. If so, I’ll increase my unit count.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It’s a bummer that James Conner and Rondale Moore aren’t available. I still like the Cardinals for three units. I was hoping for a +7, but I don’t see a viable +7 out there. Still, +6.5 -112 at FanDuel is pretty good. The sharps are on Dallas, so we’re going against the pros once again.

Cardinals at Cowboys Pick with More Details.

Carolina Panthers (5-10) at New Orleans Saints (7-8)
Line: Saints by 6.5. Total: 37.
Sunday, Jan. 2, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Ian Book was miserable Monday night. He threw two interceptions, but that number easily could have been four. Under his watch, the Saints didn’t gain positive yardage on a third down until the middle of the third quarter. It was a complete disaster, though it wasn’t all Book’s fault. He was missing his two starting tackles, and Sean Payton didn’t design any run plays for Book, who was mobile at Notre Dame.

It would be tough to bet on Book under those circumstances again, but we may not have that choice. It depends on whether or not one of Taysom Hill or Trevor Siemian can overcome their cold and play in this game. I suppose there’s a decent chance one of them will, and perhaps they’ll have at least one offensive tackle back on the field. If so, that’ll help immensely versus a Carolina defense that is ordinarily great at pressuring quarterbacks.

I wrote “ordinarily” because the Panthers had to send many of their players home because of the virus already this week. They may not have some of their core defensive players (Derrick Brown, Shaq Thompson, Brian Burns), but then again, perhaps they’ll test negatively prior to kickoff. I don’t know anymore. What I do know is that the Panthers are horrible against the run, so Alvin Kamara will have a great performance regardless.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers have one of the worst offenses in the NFL. It doesn’t help that Christian McCaffrey has barely played this year, but the quarterbacking and blocking are both terrible. Matt Rhule even utilized a miserable platoon between Cam Newton and Sam Darnold last week. It blew up in his face, yet he had the gall to tell the media that he was the Jay-Z of NFL head coaches. What a joke.

The Saints can pressure the quarterback well, so they’ll make life very difficult for Newton and Darnold. New Orleans is also great at locking down one receiver. They’ve done this with Mike Evans, A.J. Brown and other top wideouts this year, so they should have no issue restricting D.J. Moore from doing anything.

Making matters worse for the Panthers, they won’t be able to run whatsoever. The Saints have one of the top ground defenses in the NFL, and they won’t have much of a challenge against Chuba Hubbard and Ameer Abdullah.

RECAP: The Saints absolutely have to win this game, so the Aurora Snowmo Effect applies. For those of you who are new to the site, Aurora Snowmo is an amalgamation between Aurora Snow and Tony Romo. The Aurora Snowmo Effect describes teams that must win at the end of the year, but can’t do so because they choke. Aurora Snow, a famous porn star from 15 years ago, would obviously choke while performing, and Romo did as well, at least during the early stages of his career. This saying is almost a decade-and-a-half old; I recall inventing it back when I lived with my parents when I was saving up for a house after graduating from college.

At any rate, the Saints need to win, so they can’t be counted on to prevail. However, the Panthers are an abysmal football team right now. They’re platooning their quarterbacks, which is just a disaster, while their lame-duck coach is calling himself the Jay-Z of NFL head coaches. They’ve been blown out by everyone recently, including the Dolphins and Falcons. As much as I’d love to fade the Saints, I can’t do it, provided one of Hill or Siemian is able to return to action.

SATURDAY NOTES: My stance on this game will depend on which New Orleans offensive linemen are available. There’s a chance both Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk will play. If they do, I’ll bet a few units on the Saints. If one is in, this will be a light bet on New Orleans. Otherwise, I won’t be betting this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re still waiting on the Saints’ offensive line news. I’ll have my final pick posted around 3:30 Eastern.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No Terron Armstead. No Arik Armstead. Not even Erik McCoy. The Saints’ offensive line is a mess. I’d bet the Panthers if they weren’t such a complete mess. The sharps aren’t even on the Panthers (they’re not betting either side).

Panthers at Saints Pick with More Details.

Detroit Lions (2-12-1) at Seattle Seahawks (5-10)
Line: Seahawks by 9. Total: 41.
Sunday, Jan. 2, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: Russell Wilson has improved to close to 100 percent, but you can tell that he’s not all quite there with his finger. He occasionally misses some throws that leave you scratching your head until you recall that he had that nasty finger injury earlier in the year.

Still, Wilson is close enough to his former self to torch the Lions, provided he has enough time in the pocket to do so. The Lions, despite the many injuries to their defense, can get after the quarterback well. We all know that Wilson’s pass protection isn’t ideal, so Detroit could pressure Wilson and stop some drives.

That said, the Lions’ run defense will continue to be a big problem. Rashaad Penny has finally emerged as the first-round prospect the Seahawks thought they were getting with him, so he could have a big game.

DETROIT OFFENSE: It may have surprised some that the Lions nearly pulled the upset over the Falcons last week despite starting Tim Boyle. The Lions’ backup quarterback actually played rather well, albeit against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL.

The Falcons are 29th in pass DVOA, but the Seahawks aren’t much better, ranking 28th in that regard. That may explain why Nick Foles was able to pull the upset in Seattle last week. Boyle won’t have to do so because Jared Goff has overcome his cold and will return to the field. Goff has the potential to play well, especially if D’Andre Swift returns as well, which is expected. It helps that Amon-Ra St. Brown has developed into a potent target.

There’s one caveat that should be mentioned, which is Goff’s tendency to play poorly in unfavorable weather conditions. The early weather report is calling for 40 degrees and rain, but that can obviously change in the coming days.

RECAP: Man, I really regret not making the Bears my NFL Pick of the Month. I would have done so if Justin Fields, Jason Peters and Akiem Hicks weren’t ruled out. Because of their absences, I got scared and didn’t end up betting the game. I never felt so stupid.

I said on our picks podcast last week that one of the Bears or Lions would win at Seattle – perhaps both. I nearly made the Bears my December NFL Pick of the Month for these reasons:

1. As mentioned, the Seahawks have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Fields is going to have a great game, especially if the Seahawks are down both cornerbacks again. If both corners are missing, we may be approaching December NFL Pick of the Month territory.

2. This spread is WAY too high. There’s not much of a difference between the Seahawks and Bears. My personal line is Seattle -3.5. Last week’s DVOA numbers say that Seattle -5 is the correct line. Either way, we’re getting two key numbers (6, 7) by betting Chicago.

3. This is expected to be a low-scoring game, given that the total is 43. That automatically should make you lean toward the underdog.

4. The Seahawks may not play very hard. They were effectively eliminated from the playoffs by losing to the Rams. They cannot finish above .500. They know it’s over, so why would they try hard against a Chicago team they barely know?

5. Not counting games against the upper-echelon teams in the NFL, the Bears have played mostly close games this year. They lost to the Vikings by eight, but outgained them, 370-193. They lost to the Ravens by three, albeit with Lamar Jackson sidelined. They lost to Pittsburgh by two on Monday night. They beat the Bengals and Raiders earlier in the year. The Seahawks are obviously not an upper-echelon team, so this should be a tight contest.

Now, let’s see how those items apply to this game:

1. If Foles was able to lead the Bears to victory without his talented left tackle, Goff will be able to do so. Again, the Seahawks are 28th in pass defense DVOA. They apply no pressure on the quarterback, so Goff will have an eternity to throw. Perhaps that’ll offset the potential weather issues.

2. This spread is too high as well. I made this line Seattle -4.5. The sharps agree. They’ve been beating the Lions.

3. This item applies as well. The total is even a shade lower in this contest at 42.5.

4. I still expect a low-effort performance from the Seahawks. What do they have to play for, exactly? They’re a veteran team that has been eliminated from the playoffs, and they’re not battling a rival. Why would they try hard versus Detroit?

5. The Lions have also played much better than people think. Since their bye, they’ve been blown out only once, and that occurred against the Broncos when they were missing a big chunk of their roster due to illness. Aside from that game, they tied the Steelers even though Goff was battling an injury, played to within three of the Browns despite Boyle starting that game, lost by two to the Bears on Thanksgiving when Goff wasn’t 100 percent, beat the Vikings, crushed the Cardinals, and outgained the Falcons in a four-point loss in a game Boyle started. That does not sound like a team that should be a touchdown underdog against a pedestrian opponent.

I’m considering a fade of the Seahawks to be my December NFL Pick of the Month once again, and I think I’m going to pull the trigger this time.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jared Goff is out, but Tim Boyle should do fine against the Seahawks’ poor pass defense. The Seahawks, meanwhile, figure to have a limited offense. They’ll be down two blockers (Damien Lews, Brandon Shell), and Tyler Lockett has talked about how he hasn’t recovered fully from the virus. I’m sticking with my December NFL Pick of the Month this time.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: No sharp money has caused this spread to rise. That’s perfectly fine because I still love the Lions, despite Tim Boyle starting. Boyle has covered large spreads versus the Browns and Falcons thus far. Why can’t he do so against Seattle?

FINAL THOUGHTS: Here’s another game in which we’re fading the sharps. The pros have been betting the Seahawks for some reason. I still love the Lions, especially at a +9 -105 line at Bovada.

Lions at Seahawks Pick with More Details.

Minnesota Vikings (7-8) at Green Bay Packers (12-3)
Line: Packers by 13. Total: 42.
Sunday, Jan. 2, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I keep wondering when we’ll have David Bakhtiari back from injury. I believe he’ll be on the field during the playoffs, but I don’t know if the Packers will expose him during the regular season. This is important for this matchup, as the Packers’ injury-ravaged offensive line will be tasked with blocking Minnesota’s top-five pass rush.

The Vikings will be able to get to Aaron Rodgers consistently. We saw this in the first matchup when the Packers’ offense was very limited in the opening half. However, Rodgers caught fire as the game progressed. It’s impossible to contain Rodgers for the entire game when he’s fully healthy, and the Vikings learned that the hard way in the first matchup.

Rodgers will be able to ease the pressure by leaning on his running game. The Vikings are weak to the rush, as we saw last week when they couldn’t tackle Sony Michel. Both Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon figure to be productive.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings’ offense wasn’t very effective in this past week’s matchup. The Vikings needed to score off Matthew Stafford’s turnovers, and they probably won’t be able to count on give-aways from Rodgers, despite how beat-up the Packers’ blocking unit happens to be.

The Vikings, however, will be better on this side of the ball this week because they’ll be able to maintain a strong rushing attack. The Rams are stellar versus the run, while the Packers most definitely are not. Dalvin Cook, who figures to be back from his cold, will be dominant on the ground.

Kirk Cousins will be able to use Cook’s strong running to have easier throwing opportunities. The Packers had no answer for Justin Jefferson in the last matchup, with Jefferson going off for eight catches for 169 yards and two touchdowns.

RECAP: I like the Vikings, and I’m upset the sharps removed the +7 lines off the board rather quickly. This spread fell to +6.5 in an instant.

I wrote about this last week when I selected the Browns over the Packers in a similar spot: The Packers have the best record in the NFL, but they’re not the best team in the league. They are 10th in overall team DVOA. They’ve gotten lucky with some of their wins, so they could be 10-5 right now. If that were the case, this line would not be above the key number of six.

I like the line value with the Vikings, who always play a tough game against the Packers. They won outright in Lambeau last year, and that could happen again. It’s more likely that this game will be decided by 3-6 points.

SATURDAY NOTES: Sean Mannion will start this game. I like betting on good teams playing their backup quarterbacks. I’m still going to be on Minnesota despite the quarterback situation.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It’ll be interesting to see if the sharps come in on the Vikings, given how high this line is.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sorry about the stupid Lions. The Seahawks put forth way more effort than I thought they would even though their season is over. Anyway, there has been some late sharp money on the Vikings. I’m not surprised because there’s some good value with the Vikings, as this spread has been inflated too much because of the quarterback change. The best line is +13 -105 at Bovada.

Vikings at Packers Pick with More Details.

Cleveland Browns (7-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7-1)
Line: Browns by 3.5. Total: 41.5.
Monday, Jan. 3, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Poopsburgh, the toilet part of the great state of Pennsylvania! Tonight, the Poopsburgh Penguins take on the Cleveland Indians. Guys, I was fired last week for calling Roger Goodell a farter, but I came to the great Roger Goodell’s house and kissed his ring, so I was told I could keep my job.

Emmitt: Seong Ga-yeong, you lying so much your pants gonna catch on flame. It so hot you can probably cook a steak on themselfs and then you gonna need a umbrella to stop the rain that come from the smoke inspector from the ceiling. You real arrogance, so you probably kiss a fake ring and pretend that you kiss it, but you probably have your hand cross behind your stomach.

Reilly: Shut up, Emmitt! I kissed Goodell’s ring, fair and square, and then he asked me to insert the ring into my butt, and I did that with the help of this masked man by Goodell’s side. I couldn’t see his face, but he smelled of Polish sausage.

Tollefson: Kevin, you just got kielbasa up the backside from Millen, you fool. I know this because Millen came to my house and asked if there were any 100-percent USDA Men who needed kielbasa in their backside, but I told him there were nothing but enslaved, naked women here who were cooking and cleaning for me. He scoffed and left instantly.

Reilly: Tolly, the kielbasa in the backside wasn’t that bad, to be honest. Every time I go to the bathroom, I get the smell of meat now, and I’m happy about that because Mother only limits me to eight slices of bacon with my macaroni and cheese each night. Wait, it’s Adam Schefter, and he’s gliding down from the ceiling with a paraglider!

Schefter: Thanks, Kevin, I’ve spent the past five days in the ceiling pipes with the rats. I’ve been hiding from the Omnicron virus, and I’ve been safe because I’ve tested both the rats and myself 511 times in the past hour, and we’ve had 486 negative tests and 25 inconclusive tests, Kevin, so it sounds like we’re safe. Let’s get to the breaking news, Kevin! Sources tell me that another e-mail of yours has been leaked, and I can report it because Brett Veach told me I’m allowed to do so. Here’s the e-mail: “Roger Goodell is a total farter. I hate him. If he ever fires me, I’m going to cry and apologize to him, and if that doesn’t work, I’ll give him a Nick Foles bobblehead doll, but not one of my good ones, but Goodell can’t differentiate between valuable Nick Foles bobbleheads and crappy Nick Foles bobbleheads because Goodell is a total farter.”

Reilly: This is such bulls**t! How do you keep getting my e-mails!?

Joe Biden: I heard a thing or two about these e-mails. I don’t like e-mails. They’re too futuristic for me. I’d rather live in the past or present where we can listen to the record player by the candlelight like I did last night with my grandpa. My grandpa was a great hero. He fought in the war, the war against you know, you know the people. He killed lots of lying dog and pony soldiers in the war, and he won a purple, you know, you know the thing. I sometimes wear the purple thing to honor my grandpa, and I was just having dinner with him the other night, and his daughter, who is a sweet little number, sat on my lap, and I sniffed her hair. I wanted to sniff her hair today, but she was grounded because she got an F on her history quiz.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Creepy Joe just said that his girlfriend got an F on her history quiz. What a total disaster and a total disgrace! I have never gotten an F on a history quiz, and all my girlfriends have gotten A+ grades on history quizzes because I only date the smart girls, unlike the dumb girls that Creepy Joe dates, Creepy Joe never dates the smart girls; only the dumb ones, and I date the smartest ones, and everyone agrees. No one knows more about history than I do. I know all about all the World Wars, including the first one, the second one, the third one and the fourth one. I know all about the Civil War, too. Not just the first Civil War, but Civil War II, too. I call it, Civil War, the Sequel. Many have told me it’s the greatest nickname to a war they’ve ever heard. People say I’m the best leader anyone has ever seen since Abraham Lincoln, who was the president of the United States when the Civil War was happening. No one knew that Lincoln was president during the Civil War. Everyone knew that except for me because I get the highest scores on history quizzes, and everyone agrees.

Wolfley: DONALD, THAT’S SOME KEEN KNOWLEDGE OF HISTORY. I NEVER KNEW THAT. THE ONLY KNOWLEDGE I HAVE IS WHAT SORT OF SAUCE GOES ON WHAT BALLS. IF YOU EVER HAVE ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS, I’LL GIVE YOU A DETAILED BREAKDOWN.

Reilly: Guys, I’m really going to get into trouble for this latest e-mail! Hey, what’s Roger Goodell doing here?

Roger Goodell: Hey guys. I bet you didn’t know that I am hu-man like you. Would a non-hu-man ask himself what his favorite color is? My favorite color is – randomizing … buffering – red. My favorite color is – red – which makes me a hu-man just like all of you hu-mans. I must fire Kevin Reilly again for calling me a farter because it would be dangerous for anyone to belittle the supreme leader.

Reilly: NOT AGAIN!!! WHY DO MY E-MAILS KEEP GETTING LEAKED! NEW DADDY, YOU HAVE ACCESS TO MY COMPUTER! CAN’T YOU FIGURE OUT WHO’S LEAKING THESE E-MAILS TO SCHEFTER!?

Jay Cutler: Nah.

Alyssa Milano: Hey guys, I’m taking Alec Baldwin’s place this week. Kevin, I heard you wanted to go on a date with me, and I would have said yes, but it sounds like you’re a fartaphobe by constantly calling Roger Goodell a farter, so I don’t think I want to date anyone like that.

Reilly: No! Alyssa, please! I convinced Mother to allow me to go on a date with you!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you won’t be taking Alyssa out on a date, Kevin. Let’s discuss where your first date won’t be, Kevin. Let’s start with the movies, Kevin. That’s a nice place for a first date you won’t have, Kevin. You can even do the popcorn surprise trick, Kevin. How about a restaurant, Kevin? There are lots of restaurants you can try, Kevin, including IHOP, Kevin. What about a picnic, Kevin? When you won’t be taking Alyssa on a picnic, Kevin, don’t forget the bug spray, Kevin. Let’s chat about seeing an opera, Kevin, which you won’t do, Kevin, because you ruined your chances, Kevin. Can you think of a place you won’t have a first date, Kevin?

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS! I WILL FIND THE PERSON RESPONSIBLE FOR LEAKING MY E-MAILS AND THEN I WILL DROWN THEM IN THE RIVER AND BURN THEIR BODY AND SELL IT SO I CAN BUY MORE NICK FOLES BOBBLEHEADS TO IMPRESS ALYSSA MILANO! We’ll be back after this!

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: This seems like a very lopsided matchup. The Steelers have possessed one of the worst run defenses in the NFL during the second half of the season. The Browns want to run the ball, at least in theory. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt figure to dominate Pittsburgh on the ground.

OK, let’s move on to the Steelers’ offense. Oh, wait, I suppose there’s more to discuss because the Browns often don’t run the ball enough with Chubb and Hunt. We saw this in Saturday’s game when Chubb barely had any first-half carries. Instead, Baker Mayfield sabotaged a potential Cleveland victory with poor field awareness and decision-making. He was absolutely terrible against the Packers.

The Steelers can get to the quarterback with T.J. Watt, and the Browns may still be missing multiple offensive linemen. If that’s the case, Mayfield will likely struggle again. We saw this in the first matchup between these teams when Mayfield was atrocious in the red zone.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: This is likely Ben Roethlisberger’s final home game in his career, which will be bittersweet for Steeler fans. On one hand, they’ll have to say goodbye to a legend who won two Super Bowls for the franchise. On the other hand, this is the final time they’ll have to endure the team’s putrid offense.

The Steelers’ offense may not be so bad in this game. This may surprise you because the Browns have Myles Garrett starting at defensive end, but Cleveland’s pass rush is rather lackluster. The team is in the bottom 10 of pressure rate, which bodes well for the Steelers because their biggest issue is their blocking. Roethlisberger will have more time than usual, so he’ll have some success against Cleveland.

The Browns aren’t very good at stopping the run either. Again, Najee Harris’ biggest issue are the five offensive linemen in front of him, but he’ll have more available lanes than usual.

RECAP: Teams with long-time starters playing their final home game often do well against the spread. I don’t have the exact numbers for this, but I recall Philip Rivers and Eli Manning having surprise victories in their final home contests with the Chargers and Giants, respectively.

Regardless of this dynamic, I’d like the Steelers anyway. I don’t see why the Browns are favored on the road. I get that the Steelers suck, but what has Cleveland done to warrant this spread? The Browns barely beat Tyler Huntley two weeks ago. They had trouble defeating Tim Boyle at home. Their previous victory of more than three points was back in Week 9 when they were lucky with some fluky Cincinnati turnovers.

These teams are close to even, so the Browns shouldn’t even be favored. I like the Steelers to win this game in an emotional farewell to their long-time quarterback. My unit count will depend on the status of the Cleveland offensive linemen.

SATURDAY NOTES: I love the Steelers this week. They’re coming off a blowout loss, but the Browns are more on their level. They already beat them once, after all. Baker Mayfield is not healthy. Ever since J.J. Watt fell on his shoulder, the Browns have won by more than three points just once, and that was a in a fluky game versus Cincinnati where the Bengals made lots of mistakes. The Steelers, in Roethlisberger’s farewell, should pull the upset. This will be a five-unit pick, and I’m going to lock in the +3.5 just in case the sharps bet this down to +3.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The +3.5 -109 line I bet at Bookmaker is now +3.5 -114, so I’ll consider that a minor victory!

FINAL THOUGHTS: The line movement is insane. This spread moved all the way from Pittsburgh +3.5 to -3 because of A) sharp action on the Steelers, and B) people betting Pittsburgh because the Browns were eliminated from the playoffs. The spread then moved from -3 to -1 because the sharps saw value in the Browns. At this price, I’d bet the Steelers for two or three units. The best line is PK -108 at Bookmaker.

Steelers at Browns Pick with More Details.