NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17, 2021

Las Vegas Raiders (8-7) at Indianapolis Colts (9-6)
Line: Colts by 8.5. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Jan. 2, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 16 Analysis: I was so frustrated during the Sunday late afternoon slate. I dropped my units on the Bears (I considered them as the December NFL Pick of the Month) because of all the injuries they suffered during the week, and I added units on the Broncos because I spent time trying to figure out why the sharps were betting Denver so heavily each week. Lo and behold, the Bears won outright, while the Broncos were crushed in terms of play on the field. I don’t know why I didn’t trust myself more, but I will say that I’m so sick of this stupid virus list. It’s making handicapping the NFL even more difficult than normal. Players should not be tested any longer because they’re not in danger of the virus. The flu is more serious for them, and yet no one has ever been tested for the flu.

At any rate, I’ll break down all the multi-unit picks once again:

Cardinals, 3 units (loss): How did the Cardinals score only 16 points? They committed no turnovers and punted only once. This was a frustrating game. The Colts were down three offensive linemen to start the game and then four once Eric Fisher got hurt. A team like that should never cover the spread, and yet Indianapolis did so easily. I don’t understand why all the injured teams are covering so easily this year. I finished seventh in the Supercontest last year, largely by dissecting the injury report. Doing so has been absolutely useless this season.

Bengals, 5 units (win): This was an easy win. Not much else to say about it. I’m glad I jumped on the -3. I need to do a better job of pouncing on spreads I believe will move.

Broncos, 3 units (loss): I discussed this above. The Broncos lost 17-13, but they were outgained , 342-158. This pick was so bad that I should have lost an extra three units.

Dolphins, 4 units (win): I was considering a fifth unit prior to kickoff. I’m mad at myself for being a coward.

I really hope the NFL stops with the nonsensical testing next year. I don’t want to endure another season of this garbage.

A couple of things: First, I’m going to remind you every week that my wife is due very soon. In fact, I don’t think there will be Thursday Thoughts this week. Second, I just published a book called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



This book is not completely about football; it’s more political than anything, so some of you will hate it. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon bans it at some point, so get it while you can. Nevertheless, if you want to support the site, please consider ordering a copy!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: When Jonathan Taylor broke a long run to start the Saturday night game, it seemed like he would top 200 rushing yards in that contest. That did not happen, however, as Arizona restricted him to about 60 yards for the rest of the contest. Taylor still warped how the Cardinals’ defense played, however. Arizona surrendered way too many clutch throws to Carson Wentz.

The Raiders aren’t nearly as susceptible to the run as the Cardinals happen to be. Arizona has been weak to the run ever since losing J.J. Watt. The Raiders, meanwhile, were a decent 13th in run defense DVOA heading into Week 16. They’re certainly higher now in the wake of putting the clamps on Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams this past Sunday.

Taylor, in theory, won’t be able to dominate this game because of the difficult matchup. Wentz will have to come up big again, which will be difficult for him if the Colts are missing multiple offensive linemen. The Raiders generate great pressure on the quarterback without blitzing, which will be an issue for Wentz.

However, several Raiders tested positive (ugh!) and may not play in this game. Guys like Casey Hayward and Denzel Perryman tested positive early in the week, however, so there’s a chance they’ll play. There could also be a breakout of the cold on the Raiders’ roster, and more players may miss this game. As I said earlier, I’m so tired of this.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Like the Raiders, the Colts are stellar against the run. They’re third in rush defense DVOA, and Arizona’s inability to run the ball was part of the reason the Cardinals stalled in the red zone this past week and were limited to just 16 points as a result.

The Raiders will attempt to run the ball with Josh Jacobs, as they are wont to do. However, they won’t get much on the ground with Jacobs, so Derek Carr will have to do more to beat the Raiders. This is not ideal because Carr has lost his top deep threat. The Raiders have scored more than 20 points just once since Henry Ruggs was kicked off the team.

There is some good news, however, and that would be Darren Waller’s potential return. It seemed as though Waller was close to playing last week. Having him back would be a huge boon against the Colts, who struggle against tight ends.

RECAP: The Colts are extremely overrated right now. They’ve beaten the Patriots and Cardinals in consecutive nationally televised games, but they were outgained and averaged fewer yards per play than the opposition in both contests. They somehow haven’t been penalized for missing multiple offensive linemen, but that’s bound to happen soon.

I love the Raiders in this matchup, provided they aren’t missing too many players with a minor illness. If healthy, they’ll be able to limit Taylor, which is key. If they get Waller back, and the Colts are without multiple offensive linemen again, this will be a huge play. Then again, if some of those key defensive players miss this game, I may stay away or bet the other side. I can’t wait for this season to be over!

Our Week 17 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve been in the hospital since Wednesday evening, which is why there were no Thursday Thoughts. Conrad Cherepinsky was finally born Friday at 9:39 a.m. I’ll be in the hospital for the next few days, but I’ll be posting Saturday notes as usual. I wanted to get this posted early because I wanted to lock in the Raiders for two units at +7 (BetUS). There’s a chance Carson Wentz won’t be cleared. Bookmaker, one of the sharper books, doesn’t even have a line posted. If Wentz plays, the Raiders could cover the +7. If, however, Sam Ehlinger starts, we’ll be getting great line value with the spread most likely going to -2.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It’s puzzling as to why the line is rising when Indianapolis will be missing its left tackle against the Raiders’ terrific edge rush. This line has ballooned to +8. I’m going to put a third unit on the Raiders. The sharps have not taken a side.

Raiders at Colts Pick with More Details.

New York Giants (4-11) at Chicago Bears (5-10)
Line: Bears by 6.5. Total: 36.5.
Sunday, Jan. 2, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Jake Fromm’s first NFL start didn’t go very well. That’s putting it nicely, as Fromm failed to even maintain a YPA of 2.0. Outside of one drive that ended in a field goal, Fromm gave the Giants no chance of scoring, and he was ultimately pulled in the beginning of the third quarter in favor of Mike Glennon.

Glennon has a shot to actually move the chains in this game. He has often been overwhelmed by battling strong pass rushes in his starts this year, but that won’t be the case against the Bears, who have the fourth-worst pressure rate in the NFL. Glennon will have time in the pocket for once, and he’ll be able to locate Kadarius Toney and Kenny Golladay versus a poor secondary.

Saquon Barkley may have success as well, though that’ll depend on Akiem Hicks’ status. Hicks is a fierce run defender, but he has missed lots of action this year. He returned in Week 15, but missed this past Sunday’s game. His availability will dictate how Barkley will fare in this game.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: There’s no question about how David Montgomery will run. Montgomery was stellar in the upset win over the Seahawks. He’ll continue to thrive in this matchup, given that the Giants have struggled against the run since losing Blake Martinez.

The Giants are better against the pass, however. They have a talented secondary, and those defensive backs will be able to limit Darnell Mooney and the disappointing Allen Robinson.

It remains to be seen who will be delivering the ball to those receivers. Justin Fields missed last week’s game, prompting Nick Foles to start. Ordinarily, a third-string quarterback starting for a bad team would be disastrous, but Foles is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL. I worried that the Bears wouldn’t play as hard for him as they would for Fields, but that turned out to be a non-factor.

RECAP: This spread seems rather high. The Bears were -4.5 on the advance line, but they’re now -6.5 because they beat Seattle, while the Fromm-led Giants were trashed by the Eagles.

The Bears have won two games since Week 5, back when they had Khalil Mack. Those victories were by a combined three points. I know the Giants’ offense sucks, but the Bears simply aren’t good enough to be 6.5-point favorites in this matchup. They’re 24th in total DVOA, while the Giants are 26th. Furthermore, this game carries a low point total and is projected to be somewhat close, which points toward the underdog as being the correct side.

I’m definitely going to be on the Giants. I understand there being some trepidation betting them because they’ve been terrible lately, but keep in mind that they’ve battled opponents ranked 14th, second and 11th in DOVA during their previous three games. They’ve looked horrible because they’ve played some of the better teams in the NFL. The Bears, despite last week’s win, are not one of the better teams in the NFL. I’m going to bet heavily on the Giants, especially if we see a +7, allowing us to get all the key numbers.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Giants are a mess. Outside of Kenny Golladay and Pharoh Cooper, they don’t have a single healthy receiver on the roster, and it’s not like Golladay is 100 percent either. I’m switching my pick to the Bears, though I’m not exactly keen on laying 6.5 points with Andy Dalton in a low-motivational spot.

FINAL THOUGHTS: If the Giants had some healthy receivers, I would be betting them. They don’t, however, so this is a tough spot for them. I also don’t want to bet Andy Dalton as a heavy favorite. I’m passing on this game, and so are the sharps.

Giants at Bears Pick with More Details.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-4) at New York Jets (4-11)
Line: Buccaneers by 14. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Jan. 2, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 45-33 so far this year. As you can tell, the sportsbooks have taken a beating.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Packers -8

49ers -3.5

Colts +1.5

Chargers -9

This was a nice weekend for the sportsbooks because the highest-bet teams went 1-3. Many moneyline parlays were ruined because of the Chargers’ outright loss.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Rams -3.5

Colts -7.5

Buccaneers -13

Texans +15

The public usually loves road favorites, but they’re all about the Texans and the great “value” at +15!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Despite missing Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette, the Buccaneers still scored into the 30s last week, as they got some contributions from other players. That doesn’t even include Rob Gronkowski, who was locked down by a Carolina defense that is stellar against tight ends.

Gronkowski won’t face such issues in this game. The Jets don’t even bother covering tight ends – recall how they kept leaving Dallas Goedert wide open a few weeks ago – so Gronkowski will have a huge performance, as will Antonio Brown. The Jets’ poor secondary can’t cover anyone, and it doesn’t help that they have a bottom-10 pressure rate.

The Buccaneers will be able to get some nice gains on the ground as well. The Jets also have a poor rush defense, so that bodes well for Ronald Jones and Ke’Shawn Vaughn.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Zach Wilson won last week’s game because of his legs. He had an inexplicable touchdown run that was aided by some of the worst tackling efforts you’ll ever see from Jacksonville’s defense. Wilson had another run later to set up another score. His passing, however, left much to be desired. He had a pedestrian output against Jacksonville’s horrible defense.

Wilson won’t be battling the toughest secondary this week, but the Buccaneers’ pass rush will give him problems. Granted, Shaq Barrett will be sidelined, but Tampa blitzes very frequently, which does not bode well for Wilson. When not blitzed this year, Wilson has completed 60.4 percent of his passes on a 6.5 YPA. Those aren’t good numbers, but they’re not terrible. However, when blitzed, Wilson has completed 46.7 percent of his passes on a 5.0 YPA. That’s nearly Jake Fromm level.

Wilson will have to do it all in this game. He was able to lean on Michael Carter’s successful runs last week, but it’s impossible to move the chains on the ground against Tampa.

RECAP: This is Tampa Bay or nothing for me. I hate Wilson’s outlook against a blitz-heavy team, especially when considering that he’ll be missing his top two receivers. Meanwhile, the Jets’ defense is so bad that the Buccaneers should be able to name their point total against them.

I wish we were getting some line value with the Buccaneers, but everything says this spread is a bit high. My projected line is Tampa Bay -11.5. DVOA has it at -11. Even the advance spread was -11, so we lost value in that regard as well. As a result, this is going to be a small wager.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Buccaneers will be down both of their pass rushers. I think this line is too high considering how many Buccaneer starters will be missing. Then again, I don’t want to bet Zach Wilson here either.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m not touching this game, especially considering that Antonio Brown and Mike Evans may not be 100 percent. If you want to bet the Buccaneers, the best line is the -14 -110 at FanDuel. The sharps haven’t touched this game.

Buccaneers at Jets Pick with More Details.

Atlanta Falcons (7-8) at Buffalo Bills (9-6)
Line: Bills by 14.5. Total: 46.
Sunday, Jan. 2, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got just a bit this week:

This is from someone who has so much sand in his vag that he doesn’t appreciate a good troll.



I truly believe that if you don’t find trolling humor funny, you are not only a sad individual; but a stupid one as well. But I could be wrong. I can’t wait to have this super-serious discussion.

Here’s someone who isn’t pleased that I said that all viral testing should be done:



Imagine arguing with a doctor about what’s a vaccine or not. It would be like walking up to a fireman and arguing about what a fire is.

Here’s a long exchange with someone else who challenged my credentials as a doctor. As you can see, I swiftly defeated him in my argument:







Bringing up Kaepernick was the waving of the white flag. See, Thrillhouse, I can have an argument and win it!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The only reason I didn’t bet on the Bills against the Patriots was because I was unsure of Josh Allen’s foot injury. Allen could barely move the prior week, and I knew he would need his mobility to vanquish the Patriots. The week of rest did the trick, as Allen was quite mobile versus New England. Save for a few throws, he was unstoppable overall, especially late in the game when he made numerous clutch conversions on third and fourth down.

Allen will have a much easier matchup in this game. The Falcons have the second-worst pressure rate in the NFL – only the Colts are worse – and outside of A.J. Terrell, no one in their secondary can cover. Allen has a plethora of receivers at his disposal, all of whom can beat the Falcons. This includes Dawson Knox, who will be battling against a defense that has been weak to tight ends.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Outside of Tom Brady, no quarterback has performed well versus Buffalo’s defense this year. That’s not surprising at all because the Bills have the No. 1 pressure rate in the NFL, and even without Tre’Davious White, they possess talented defensive backs who can lock down opposing receivers.

I don’t expect Matt Ryan to buck this trend. Ryan has been a shell of his former self this year, though it’s not mostly his fault. Losing Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley has hurt, and his poor offensive line hasn’t done him any favors. The horrible blocking will be a major factor in this matchup, as Atlanta stands no chance of keeping the Bills out of the backfield. Ryan, under heavy pressure all afternoon, won’t have anyone open in time. It will be very difficult for the Falcons to score into double digits in this contest.

RECAP: If you think this spread is too high, it may not be high enough. DVOA has this line at -15.5! This is because last week’s DVOA numbers deem the Falcons to be the worst team in the NFL. If you disagree by pointing out their record, let me remind you that they were outgained by the Lions last week!

The Falcons have gotten trashed against every good team they’ve battled this year. Every opponent they’ve faced in the top half of DVOA this year – Eagles, Buccaneers twice, Cowboys, Patriots, 49ers – has beaten them by double digits. Consider these margins of defeat: 26, 23, 40, 25, 13 and 18.

The Bills are just in a different class compared to Atlanta. As long as they’re not flat off their big win versus the Patriots, they’ll crush the Falcons. It’s possible they could overlook Atlanta following a huge win over New England, so I won’t be betting this game, but I would still put my money on the Bills if I had to do so.

SATURDAY NOTES: The NFL has been ravaged by the cold, but the Bills and Falcons have somehow mostly remained off these lists this week. I’m still on the Bills, and after talking about it with Jacob on the picks podcast, I’ve decided to bet a medium amount on Buffalo. I think it’s less likely the Bills will be in a flat spot this late in the season as opposed to much earlier when they lost to Jacksonville.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Emmanuel Sanders is out, but that doesn’t affect my pick at all. I’m still on the Bills for three units. The best line is -14.5 -105 at BetUS. The sharps were on Buffalo at -14.

Falcons at Bills Pick with More Details.

Philadelphia Eagles (8-7) at Washington Redskins (6-9)
Line: Eagles by 6.5. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Jan. 2, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles just played against the Redskins, and they moved the ball very easily, especially in the second half. They accumulated 519 net yards of offense, averaging 7.4 yards per play. It was embarrassingly one-sided.

However, that win has an asterisk next to it because the Redskins were missing more than half of their roster due to illness. The NFL even moved the game back two days, but that was a futile effort because it did nothing to aid the Redskins. Washington simply had no chance versus Philadelphia, or really any other healthy team, under those conditions.

The Redskins, however, no longer have anyone on the virus list. They were still missing some key personnel against the Cowboys, but everyone is now set to return to action. This should help them limit the Eagles’ offense. Philadelphia loves to run the ball, but the Redskins are ordinarily stout against the rush. They also tend to play well against tight ends when everyone’s healthy, so Dallas Goedert likely won’t go off like he did two weeks ago.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins started Garrett Gilbert against the Eagles. Gilbert didn’t make any mistakes, but he didn’t exactly give the Redskins a fighting chance. Taylor Heinicke returned to action last week, but was pulled early because of a blowout.

Heinicke struggled against the Cowboys in two games during a span of three weeks, but he was behind the eight ball, given the status of his offensive line. He was missing multiple blockers in front of him, so he didn’t stand a chance against Dallas’ dominant defensive line. Things will be different this week because Brandon Scherff will return to the field. Having him will be a huge boon for a Redskin offense that will be functional again.

Washington will move the chains effectively against the Eagles. Philadelphia has issues covering No. 1 receivers and tight ends, and that’s who Heinicke likes to target. He’ll have success connecting with Terry McLaurin and Ricky Seals-Jones.

RECAP: Here’s another Auroroa Snowmo game. The Eagles must win to give themselves a good chance of making the playoffs. Everyone expects them to win; they’re favored, and the public is betting on them at a high rate to cover. They’re a candidate to choke.

As if the Redskins weren’t appealing enough for that reason, there’s also the fact that this spread makes no sense. Back when the Redskins weren’t infected, they were just 2.5-point underdogs in Philadelphia. Now, they’re four-point underdogs at home! Considering one point for home-field advantage, which is the standard these days, this line moved 2.5 points across a key number for what? Sure, the Redskins have gotten blown out two weeks in a row, but they didn’t have their major players like they will for this game. The Eagles, meanwhile, blew out the Gilbert-led Redskins and Jake Fromm-quarterbacked Giants. Whoop dee doo!

I love the line value and motivational angle we’re getting with the Redskins, so I’m willing to put a big bet on them.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Redskins will be missing Antonio Gibson, Sam Cosmi and Montez Sweat, but I still like them to cover this spread. I’m not as bullish as I was on them earlier in the week, however.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps don’t like the Redskins’ injuries, so this spread has ballooned up to +6. It’s even +6.5 at BetUS. I don’t like going against the sharps, but I’m a big fan of getting all the key numbers with Washington except seven.

Eagles at Redskins Pick with More Details.

Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-6)
Line: Chiefs by 4. Total: 51.
Sunday, Jan. 2, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’d like to support this site outside of buying my books or referring people to it, you can check out the WalterFootball Merch Store as well! I can design shirts rather easily, so if you have any new ideas, let me know in the comments below.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Joe Burrow was awesome last week. I loved his chances against the Ravens because he was battling an injury-ravaged secondary and a blitz-heavy defense. Despite being a young quarterback, Burrow devours the blitz. The Ravens blitz very frequently, which would explain why Burrow has amassed nearly 1,000 passing yards against them in two games.

The Chiefs have a much healthier defense than the Ravens, but they also blitz at a very high rate. The Chiefs have the No. 8 blitz rate in the NFL, so while they don’t send extra pass rushers as often as the Ravens, they still do so at a high frequency. If they make this mistake against the Bengals, Burrow will make them pay. He’ll likely have the best connection with Tee Higgins again, as Kansas City has struggled versus No. 2 receivers this year.

The Bengals, of course, will attempt to run the ball with Joe Mixon. The talented runner was bottled up by the Ravens last week, but Baltimore has a stronger ground defense than the Chiefs, though Kansas City’s ability to stop the run has improved in recent weeks.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs had no trouble scoring against the Steelers last week despite missing Travis Kelce. Pittsburgh double teamed Tyreek Hill with Kelce out, but Patrick Mahomes had tons of success throwing to his other options, namely Byron Pringle. After a slow start, it’s safe to say that Mahomes has reverted to his usual, prolific self.

It sounded like Kelce was close to playing last week, which is very significant for this game. The Bengals haven’t been able to cover tight ends this year, so Kelce will eat Cincinnati alive in the middle of the field. The Bengals won’t be able to double team him because of Hill’s presence.

The only chance the Bengals have of stopping Mahomes is by pressuring him consistently without blitzing. There’s actually a chance they’ll be able to do that. They have a fairly decent pass rush, and they have one of the lowest blitz rates in the NFL. This is often the recipe to defeating elite quarterbacks like Mahomes.

RECAP: If you were to tell me that the Bengals would destroy the Ravens and that the spread for their next game would move against them, I would have told you that you were crazy. Yet, that’s exactly what happened. The advance line was Kansas City -4. It has since moved to -5!

The reason for this is that the Chiefs embarrassed the Steelers on national TV despite not having Travis Kelce available. This, however, shouldn’t have been a surprise because the Steelers are not a good team. The Chiefs were 10.5-point favorites without Kelce for a reason!

Everything now says this spread is too large. My personal numbers have this at Kansas City -2.5. The computer model says it should be -3. DVOA is most bullish on the Chiefs, and yet that’s -4.5.

Furthermore, the Bengals match up well against the Chiefs. As mentioned earlier, Burrow is brilliant against the blitz, and Kansas City rushes extra men very frequently. Burrow seems built to take advantage of this matchup.

This is not one of my favorite plays because I’m not looking to rush to the ticket window to bet against Mahomes, but the Bengals seem like the right side.

SATURDAY NOTES: I still don’t understand why this spread is so high. The Chiefs clobbered the Steelers, but the Bengals did that twice. The Bengals aren’t much worse than the Chiefs, and I like how Burrow matches up against Kansas City’s blitz-heavy defense. The sharps have been betting Cincinnati.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps love the Bengals, bringing this line down to +3.5. I’m not surprised by this at all. The best line is +4 -115 at Bovada.

Chiefs at Bengals Pick with More Details.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-13) at New England Patriots (9-6)
Line: Patriots by 17.5. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Jan. 2, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I can write three detailed paragraphs about this matchup, or I could provide you with five words as to why the Jaguars won’t have any success: Bill Belichick versus Trevor Lawrence.

Is there much more to say? Elite defensive-minded coaches like Belichick often have their way with young quarterbacks, especially rookies. Lawrence has not lived up to his expectations as a pro thus far. Granted, he’s had no help from his teammates or his coaching staff, but I expected the Jaguars to be able to engage in at least some shootouts this year. That hasn’t come close to happening.

The Patriots have a top-10 pressure rate, which doesn’t bode well for Lawrence, given that young signal-callers are especially bad when pressured heavily. Lawrence won’t be able to lean on James Robinson either, as Robinson has been lost for the year with an Achilles injury.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: No one saw it coming, but Mac Jones has been the best of the rookie quarterbacks, and it hasn’t been close. It must be noted that Jones, unlike Lawrence, is protected extremely well and is coached up brilliantly. Still, Jones’ quick decisions and accuracy have allowed him to play well when not battling the Bills this year.

The Jaguars won’t pose much of a problem. They have a fairly decent pass rush, but New England’s elite offensive line will keep everyone out of the backfield. Jones, as a result, will be able to connect with his receivers against a dreadful secondary. He may have the most success targeting Hunter Henry, given that the Jaguars are woeful at defending tight ends.

Jacksonville is better against the run than the pass, but they still allow some explosive rushes. We saw this last week when Michael Carter broke free in the fourth quarter to help the Jets cover the spread with an ensuing field goal. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson figure to have some big gains in this contest.

RECAP: This line is so high. The Patriots match up so well against the Jaguars, especially with Belichick matching wits with Lawrence, but this spread is just so enormous.

Perhaps that’s what the sportsbooks want you to think. The Patriots have won by large sums this year. They beat the Titans by 23, Falcons by 25, Browns by 38, Panthers by 18, Jets by 41 and Jets by 19. Six of their nine victories have been by 18 points or more!

I think this perceived high spread is intended to make some people think that there’s line value with the Jaguars. There’s not. I’m going to be on New England.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m going to bet the Patriots. The Jaguars already had a rough matchup, and they’re going to be missing some key players in the secondary (Shaq Griffin, Andrew Wingard) and their left tackle. The Patriots have won most of their games by large amounts. The sharps undoubtedly recognized this, which might be one of the reasons they are betting New England.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps love the Patriots so much that all the -17s are gone, save for the -17 -117 at Bookmaker. That’s not a key number, so I’ll bet a -17.5 (cue the Patriots winning by 17).

Jaguars at Patriots Pick with More Details.

Miami Dolphins (8-7) at Tennessee Titans (10-5)
Line: Titans by 3. Total: 41.
Sunday, Jan. 2, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: To get into the spirit of Christmas, let’s listen to the 12 Days of Biden:



I’m upset they didn’t include “truinanashabidapressure” and “badakathcare” in that montage, but very well done otherwise!

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins are very fortunate that they were battling Ian Book and an injury-ravaged Saints offensive line on Monday, or their long winning streak would have ended. Tua Tagovailoa and his blocking unit were terrible against the Saints. Miami’s defense carried the team in that contest, as Tagovailoa was fortunate not to throw multiple interceptions.

To be fair to Tagovailoa, his offensive line sucks, so it’s impossible to appropriately evaluate him until his blocking is repaired. That obviously won’t happen by kickoff in this game, so this matchup looks bleak for the second-year quarterback. The Titans, like the Saints, can generate a steady pass rush without blitzing often. Tennessee’s pass rushers will create problems for Miami’s offensive line.

There is some hope for the Dolphins, however, and that would be the Titans’ issues when it comes to covering slot receivers. They struggle in this regard, and Jaylen Waddle happens to play in the slot. Waddle figures to break Anquan Boldin’s rookie record for receptions in a single season during this contest.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans’ offense was miserable prior to this week, struggling to score against the Jaguars and Steelers in Weeks 14 and 15. Things changed Thursday night, however, as the Titans lit up the 49ers in the second half.

That change was A.J. Brown, who returned following a short stint on injured reserve. With Julio Jones being a shell of his former self, Brown was needed to make the offense productive again. He dominated the 49ers’ injury-ravaged cornerback group. He’ll have his work cut out for him in this game, however, given that Miami is excellent at covering No. 1 receivers.

The Dolphins are not very good against the run, however. The Titans don’t have Derrick Henry back yet, but D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard have looked good in easy matchups. They should play well against the Dolphins.

RECAP: Back when the Dolphins were 1-7, 2-7 or even 3-7, what would this spread have been? I think the Titans would have been favored by something close to seven or eight points. Baltimore was a 7.5-point favorite in Miami on a Thursday night when the Dolphins were 2-7.

I ask this because I’d like you to imagine that the Dolphins’ seven-game winning streak is a figment of your imagination. That’s because it almost seems to be that way. The Dolphins have had trouble putting away bad teams like the Saints and Jets, so that begs the question, how impressive is their seven-game winning streak?

To answer that, here are the seven teams the Dolphins have beaten and their DVOA ranking: Texans (29th), Ravens (19th), Jets (26th), Panthers (28th), Giants (27th), Jets (26th) and Saints (14th). The only opponent in the top 18 of DVOA is the Saints, but they were starting Ian Book and two backup offensive tackles.

I think the Dolphins are a decent team, but they’re not as good as their seven-game winning streak says they are. All they’ve established is that they’re the best of the bad teams. They’re a 1/2 on a field of 1/1s for those who play MTG.

The Titans will be their toughest challenge yet. Tennessee’s DVOA ranking is in the toilet (20th) because it missed Brown and Jones for a chunk of time, but those players are now healthy. The Titans are a different team with Brown back in the lineup. The Titans will move the chains with Brown and their running game, while the defense will pressure Tagovailoa heavily.

The Titans, armed with extra time to prepare, should be able to win this game. I’m not in love with them because they don’t normally play as well when favored, and this figures to be a close, low-scoring game that typically benefits the underdog, but I’m siding with Tennessee in this contest.

SATURDAY NOTES: I don’t have a strong opinion on this game. I have a slight lean toward the Titans because I think their pass rush will overwhelm the Dolphins’ offensive line, but the hook is keeping me off any sort of wager.

TEASER ADDED: I’m going to tease the Dolphins and Chargers. I expect the Titans-Dolphins game to be close, so I’ll be surprised if it’s decided by double digits. Meanwhile, the Broncos have so many people on the virus list, so the Chargers should be able to win outright.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I have no feel for this game. I think there’s a good chance it lands on exactly Titans by three. The sharps loved Miami at +3.5, but not so much at +3.

Dolphins at Titans Pick with More Details.

Los Angeles Rams (11-4) at Baltimore Ravens (8-7)
Line: Rams by 7.5. Total: 47.
Sunday, Jan. 2, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now.

By the way, my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford did not play well against the Vikings last week. That’s actually putting it nicely. Stafford threw three interceptions. If it wasn’t for a punt return touchdown, the Rams may have lost to Minnesota.

It’s not like the Vikings have a great pass defense, or anything, so one has to wonder if Stafford is 100 percent, given his back problems. Those were described as “chronic,” and as someone who has back problems, I can tell you that they never go away permanently. There are days when my back feels fine, and then there are stretches where it’s awful. I’m obviously no professional athlete, but Stafford could be in a similar situation where his back could flare up without warning.

With that in mind, there’s no guarantee Stafford will play well against the Ravens’ horrible cornerbacks. Joe Burrow just lit up the Ravens for 525 yards, but if Stafford isn’t feeling well, he won’t be able to do that. Stafford won’t be able to lean on his running game like he did last week either. Unlike the Vikings, the Ravens are still stout against the run.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I was shocked by how well Josh Johnson played against the Bengals. The Ravens were blown out, but Johnson did well to move the chains at times despite not being able to practice at all with the team. If the Ravens didn’t have such major issues in their secondary, they may have pulled the upset over the Bengals.

It’s likely that one of Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley will be back for the Ravens this week. They have a difficult matchup on paper. The Rams’ stellar pass rush will beat Baltimore’s troubled offensive line, making it tougher for the receivers to get open in time for the quarterback. The Rams also defend tight ends well, so Mark Andrews won’t be a dominating force for once.

That said, Jackson and Huntley have the mobility to counter the pass rush a bit. They’ll be able to scramble out of trouble and keep plays alive, so it’s not like the Ravens have no chance of scoring, despite the difficult matchup.

RECAP: Everyone in the world is betting the Rams, but I’m going to side with the Ravens. I realize that this is risky, given Baltimore’s major problems in the secondary. No one wants to wager on the Ravens right now, and understandably so.

However, Stafford isn’t playing well right now, likely because of his back problem, and the Rams won’t be able to run on the Ravens. Assuming Baltimore has one of its quarterbacks available, the team should be able to keep this game close and perhaps stay within a field goal. The Ravens lost to the Packers by one, thanks to some late heroics from Huntley, so perhaps they’ll be able to cover in a similar fashion against the Rams.

SATURDAY NOTES: Lamar Jackson is unlikely to play, but Tyler Huntley will be available. This has moved the spread 2.5 points up to 6 (-120 at BetUS). If I knew Matthew Stafford were 100 percent, I’d be on the Rams, but his back could flare up at any moment. I’m on the Ravens for a small wager. If you bet this game, make sure you get six because that has become such a key number; not just because of the adjusted overtime rules, but because teams that are down 14 tend to go for two now, and a two-point conversion gets to six instead of seven.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a torrent of sharp money coming in on the Rams, bringing this line up to -7. I hate going against the sharps, but we’re now getting all the key numbers with Baltimore. The Rams won’t be able to run well, meaning they’ll have trouble holding a big lead because they won’t be running out the clock. Plus, I’m not convinced Matthew Stafford is 100 percent. The best line is +7.5 -118 at Bookmaker.

Rams at Ravens Pick with More Details.