NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 16, 2021

NFL Picks (Preseason 2021): 6-5 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2021): 7-9 (-$1,320)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2021): 7-9 (-$2,340)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2021): 8-8 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2021): 12-4 (+$1,400)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2021): 5-10-1 (-$1,770)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2021): 7-7 (+$1,025)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2021): 6-7 (-$455)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2021): 5-10 (-$1,210)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2021): 8-6 (+$660)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2021): 9-5 (+$675)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2021): 7-8 (-$595)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2021): 7-7-1 (-$175)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2021): 7-7 (+$645)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2021): 5-9 (-$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2021): 10-6 (+$60)

2021 NFL Picks: 116-117-2 (-$5,190)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 26, 11:35 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 16 NFL Picks – Early Games







Chicago Bears (4-10) at Seattle Seahawks (5-9)
Line: Seahawks by 7. Total: 41.5.

Sunday, Dec. 26, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Make sure you get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2021 NFL Survivor Pool.

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: It was the end of an era on Tuesday night. No one saw it because the NFL made the very wise idea of having the two Tuesday games air at the same time – who wanted to watch both, anyway!? – but Russell Wilson struggled against the Rams. He dealt with plenty of pressure, and a potential deep touchdown of his to D.K. Metcalf went incomplete, likely because of his finger. The Seahawks then decided to run the ball on a third-and-6 with four minutes remaining, and they followed that up with a wasted timeout to avoid a delay of game. With the loss, the Seahawks cannot finish with a winning record.

The Seahawks will continue to be poorly coached, meaning they’ll keep avoiding the strength of their team (Wilson and the receivers) and attempt to establish the running game with Rashaad Penny. That won’t work very well because the Bears finally have a healthy Akiem Hicks on the field. Hicks had been sidelined or bothered by injury all year, but he was fully back last week and did a great job of limiting Dalvin Cook.

Hicks will also help put pressure on Wilson, so the future former Seahawk quarterback will once again be running for his life. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will get open, but Wilson won’t be able to connect with them every time because of the pressure.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears made so many mistakes Monday night. They moved the chains well in between the 20s, nearly outgaining the Vikings by 200 yards, but they made so many blunders in or around the red zone. They really ruined their chances of winning, but at least they preserved their draft pick – in the second round.

The Bears almost certainly won’t make the same number of errors in this game because it’s almost mathematically impossible. Thus, I expect them to score a healthy point total. The Seahawks have a poor pass defense; they even allowed Davis Mills to perform on a high level two weeks ago. If Mills could have lots of success, Fields will, too.

The Seahawks are much stronger against the run than the pass, but they aren’t very good at defending the middle of the field. Fields will make good use of David Montgomery as a receiving threat, as well as his tight ends.

RECAP: This is one of my top picks this week. I love the Bears. Here’s why:

1. As mentioned, the Seahawks have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Fields is going to have a great game, especially if the Seahawks are down both cornerbacks again. If both corners are missing, we may be approaching December NFL Pick of the Month territory.

2. This spread is WAY too high. There’s not much of a difference between the Seahawks and Bears. My personal line is Seattle -3.5. Last week’s DVOA numbers say that Seattle -5 is the correct line. Either way, we’re getting two key numbers (6, 7) by betting Chicago.

3. This is expected to be a low-scoring game, given that the total is 43. That automatically should make you lean toward the underdog.

4. The Seahawks may not play very hard. They were effectively eliminated from the playoffs by losing to the Rams. They cannot finish above .500. They know it’s over, so why would they try hard against a Chicago team they barely know?

5. Not counting games against the upper-echelon teams in the NFL, the Bears have played mostly close games this year. They lost to the Vikings by eight, but outgained them, 370-193. They lost to the Ravens by three, albeit with Lamar Jackson sidelined. They lost to Pittsburgh by two on Monday night. They beat the Bengals and Raiders earlier in the year. The Seahawks are obviously not an upper-echelon team, so this should be a tight contest.

Those are my reasons. I’m slowly talking myself into a December NFL Pick of the Month, but my only worry is fading Wilson coming off a loss. Still, Wilson can win outright, and yet we’ll still cash if this game is close. Depending on the injury report, this might be an eight-unit wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Bears, bringing this line down from +7 to +6.5. I’m eager to see any Jason Peters news. Unfortunately, Akiem Hicks has a cold, which ruins Chicago’s defense. It’s going to be tough to label this as the December NFL Pick of the Month now.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ugh. We just can’t have nice things this year. I wanted to make the Bears my December NFL Pick of the Month, but Jason Peters, Akiem Hicks and Justin Fields will all miss this game. Peters and Hicks are two of the best players on Chicago’s roster, and with Fields out, the team may not play as hard for Nick Foles. I still like the Bears because the Seahawks are overpriced and could sleepwalk through this meaningless game, but the Bears aren’t nearly as appealing as they were earlier in the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m dropping this unit count to two. The more I think about it, the more I think it’s possible that the Bears will be a complete no-show on Sunday with Nick Foles playing.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Sharp money came in on the Bears earlier in the week, but once the Justin Fields, Akiem Hicks and Jason Peters news was released, the pro money came in on the Seahawks. I’m not going to bet this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned earlier, the sharps were on the Bears to start the week, but injuries switched the pro action to Seattle. The best line is Bears +7 -110 at Bovada and FanDuel, but I’m not betting this game.




The Motivation. Edge: Bears.
The Seahawks were just effectively eliminated from the playoffs.


The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -3.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -7.
Computer Model: Seahawks -5.
DVOA Spread: Seahawks -7.




The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 58% (29,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Bears are 21-39 ATS in December road games the previous 60 instances.
  • Seahawks are 38-24 ATS in Week 11 or later since 2013.
  • Seahawks are 54-38 ATS as home favorites since 2007.
  • Russell Wilson is 27-15 ATS after a loss since his second season.
  • Seahawks are 6-13 ATS as a favorite of 6+ since 2017.
  • Opening Line: Seahawks -7.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: Possible light rain, 40 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.



  • Week 16 NFL Pick: Seahawks 21, Bears 20
    Bears +7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Bears 25, Seahawks 24




    Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-4)
    Line: Chiefs by 10. Total: 44.5.

    Sunday, Dec. 26, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

    Emmitt on the Brink was posted here. Now, Emmitt makes an appearance in my new book, How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen!

    You can support the site by buying this book and spreading the word!

    How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen

    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs scored 34 points in a thrilling overtime victory at the Chargers last week, but their offense wasn’t as prolific as that point total might indicate. It still struggled at times, as Patrick Mahomes was responsible for a couple of turnovers.

    Under normal circumstances, a battle against the Steelers wouldn’t exactly be what the doctor ordered. However, Pittsburgh’s defense has not been the same dominant unit this year. In fact, the team has some major liabilities. One is the cornerback group, which won’t have an answer for Tyreek Hill. Mahomes and Hill should be able to slice through Pittsburgh’s defense with ease.

    The Steelers are even worse against the run. They’ve been gashed by everyone, including D’Onta Foreman last week. If the Chiefs aim to establish Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams, they’ll pick up good chunks on the ground, which will put Mahomes into easier situations.

    PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: It’s amazing that the Chiefs have been able to go on a long winning streak while their offense hasn’t played very well. It’s been their defense that has improved tremendously. Their stop unit will cause major problems for Pittsburgh.

    The Steelers’ offense is anemic because of its horrible offensive line. This is a huge issue in this matchup because Kansas City has the No. 4 pressure rate in the NFL. The Chiefs’ defenders will harass Ben Roethlisberger and force him into some bad passes against a secondary that should be healthier this week.

    The Chiefs can still be attacked over the middle of the field because of their poor linebacker play, but the Steelers won’t be equipped to do that if Pat Freiermuth is sidelined. Freiermuth suffered a second concussion in recent weeks last year, and it looked particularly nasty because his body just stopped moving when he got hit in the helmet. I doubt he’ll play, which will further limit Pittsburgh’s miserable offense.

    RECAP: The Steelers are so lucky that they’re 7-6-1 right now. They beat the Titans last week, but only because Tennessee lost Julio Jones and then committed four turnovers. Two weeks before that, the Steelers defeated the Ravens because Baltimore lost countless defensive players throughout the evening. In other games, the Steelers have been blown out against the Chargers and Vikings, only to make those affairs close in garbage time.

    I’m making note of this because if the Steelers had rightfully lost to the Titans and Ravens, they’d be 5-8-1 right now, and this line would be much higher. This spread should probably be closer to -14, especially when factoring in that Andy Reid has enjoyed extra time to prepare for this game, but this line is not where it should be due to the Steelers’ name recognition.

    That said, I’m not too keen on betting this game. I feel like the Steelers could once again put together some garbage-time points to make this game close at the end. Also, the Chiefs are coming off an emotional overtime win, so they may not be fully focused. I’m still going to pick them, but I won’t be placing a wager.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: With Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce suffering through colds, this line closed at -10 and reopened at -7.5. I’m still leaning toward the Chiefs, as their defense will put the clamps on the Steelers. Still, it’ll make it difficult to bet this game.

    SATURDAY NOTES: We’re waiting on news regarding Kelce and Hill’s status, as they have a chance to test out of being sick on Saturday by 4 p.m. I’ll have another update Saturday night.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Tyreek Hill will play, while Travis Kelce has a chance to test negative Sunday morning. This makes me wish I would’ve locked in the Chiefs at -7.5 for a unit or two. They’re not as appealing at -10.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Travis Kelce is out, yet the line has continued to rise in the Chiefs’ favor. The sharps are on Kansas City.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Chiefs earlier in the week when this line was -7.5. They haven’t touched them at -10, and I have no desire to bet this either at -10.5. You can get -10 -112 at Bookmaker, which would be appealing if Kelce were active.



    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -8.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -9.5.
    Computer Model: Chiefs -10.
    DVOA Spread: Chiefs -8.5.




    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    I’m surprised there isn’t more money on the Chiefs.

    Percentage of money on Kansas City: 58% (55,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Mike Tomlin is 43-23 ATS as an underdog.
  • Patrick Mahomes is 51-13 SU, 36-27 ATS (29-19 ATS when not favored by double digits.)
  • Opening Line: Chiefs -10.5.
  • Opening Total: 46.5.
  • Weather: Sunny/clear 57 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.



  • Week 16 NFL Pick: Chiefs 27, Steelers 16
    Chiefs -10 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Chiefs 36, Steelers 10




    Denver Broncos (7-7) at Las Vegas Raiders (7-7)
    Line: Broncos by 1. Total: 42.

    Sunday, Dec. 26, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: .

    A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Three Errands. I seldom get to leave my house during the offseason, so see what antics transpired when I went to run some errands for my wife.

    DENVER OFFENSE: Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out of Sunday’s game with a nasty concussion. It’s highly doubtful that he’ll be able to play just seven days later, so Drew Lock will likely take the reins in this contest.

    This is obviously bad news for the Broncos. Lock is often clueless and turnover prone, especially when he has lots of pressure in his face. Young quarterbacks tend to really struggle when defenders are hounding them, and that’s what the Raiders will be able to do with their terrific edge rushers. Meanwhile, the Raiders have the cornerbacks to limit Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton.

    That said, the Raiders are at their worst on this side of the ball when defending the middle of the field. They’ve been shredded by tight ends all year, and the Broncos happen to have two talented players at the position. The Raiders are just mediocre to the run as well, so Javonte Williams, assuming he’s used enough, will have some nice gains.

    LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: It’s safe to say that the Raiders have struggled offensively over the past couple of months. They’ve scored 16, 17, 14, 13, 15 and 9 points in six of the seven games since Henry Ruggs was removed from the team. They simply have not been able to duplicate Ruggs’ downfield presence.

    Darren Waller will likely return this week, so that’s at least some positive news. Waller will be great in this matchup, as Denver’s injuries at linebacker have made them very weak to tight ends, slot receivers and pass-catching running backs. These are some of the Raiders’ best players, as Hunter Renfrow and Josh Jacobs figure to play well, too.

    The Broncos’ defensive strength is pressuring the quarterback and playing great coverage on the outside receivers, but this is not an area Derek Carr successfully attacks often anyway. He’ll release the ball quickly, and as long as he has Waller at his disposal, he should be able to keep drives alive.

    RECAP: The Raiders demolished the Broncos earlier in the year, and yet that was with Bridgewater at quarterback. Lock will likely start this week, and he’ll have major problems with the Raiders’ pass rush. Meanwhile, the Raiders should be able to attack the middle of Denver’s field very well.

    That said, it’s difficult to trust the Raiders with a wager, as the public hasn’t acknowledged the significance of Ruggs’ absence. The Raiders have covered the spread once since Ruggs was kicked off the team, and it’s clear that the sportsbooks haven’t appropriately adjusted for this yet. That would lead me to lean toward the Broncos, but I don’t want anything to do with Lock. If anything, I may bet the under.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m switching my pick. Darren Waller hasn’t practiced yet, and the sharps are betting the Broncos. As I said before, I don’t think the sportsbooks have made enough of an adjustment for the Raiders missing Henry Ruggs.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Darren Waller is out, and it doesn’t appear as though some key Raider defenders will play. The sharps are on the Broncos, and so am I. I may make a small wager on Denver.

    SATURDAY NOTES: I’m going to bet three units on the Broncos. The Raiders are going to be missing so much defensive personnel. If the public didn’t hate Drew Lock so much, this line would be Denver -2.5 or perhaps even -3. Lock, however, can play well against some of the worst defenses in the NFL, and the Raiders are 26th in defensive DVOA.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps bet the Broncos earlier in the week, but they stopped at pick ’em. The Raiders have so many injuries.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: It’s not a surprise to see the Broncos close as favorites with all the sharp money on them all week. The Raiders have so many injuries on their defense, which would explain the sharp sentiment. The best line is Denver -1 -103 at Bookmaker.



    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Raiders -1.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Pick.
    Computer Model: Raiders -5.
    DVOA Spread: Broncos -2.




    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Las Vegas: 58% (30,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • History: Home Team has won 9 of the last 11 meetings.
  • Raiders are 14-31 ATS as home favorites since November 2005.
  • Raiders are 26-48 ATS after a win since 2009.
  • Opening Line: Raiders -1.
  • Opening Total: 42.5.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 16 NFL Pick: Broncos 16, Raiders 13
    Broncos -1 -103 (3 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$310
    Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Raiders 17, Broncos 13




    Washington Redskins (6-8) at Dallas Cowboys (10-4)
    Line: Cowboys by 9.5. Total: 46.5.

    Sunday, Dec. 26, 8:20 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

    Here’s the Top Stocks to Buy page, where I told you about GameStop last year. It will be updated once per week, or sooner if there is any emergency news.

    WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I can’t even imagine how the Redskin team we saw Tuesday night would fare against the Cowboys. This is because Dallas’ dominant pass rush pulverized the Redskins two weeks ago. Taylor Heinicke had no time to throw, which is how the Cowboys restricted Washington to just 3.6 yards per play. If the Cowboys were going against Garrett Gilbert and the Brandon Scherff-less offensive line, that figure may have been -3.6 yards per play!

    The Redskins should be getting most of their players back from the nonsense virus list this week, but I can’t imagine things improving very much after just two weeks. With Randy Gregory and DeMarcus Lawrence healthy again, the Cowboys simply have too much manpower on their front. The Redskins can’t handle it at all, which results in offensive futility. I can’t really see Washington’s offense doing anything in this game.

    DALLAS OFFENSE: The first Cowboys-Redskins game ended up being just a seven-point victory despite Dallas’ dominance on defense. The reason was Dak Prescott, who struggled to move the chains all afternoon. Prescott’s pick-six gave the Redskins some life at the end.

    Prescott has been in a major slump since Thanksgiving. It’s almost inexplicable because he has all of his weapons, and prior to Sunday’s game, his offensive line was fully intact. This is a great matchup for Prescott to snap out of his funk. That may sound strange because Prescott was just pedestrian against the Redskins, but Washington’s secondary can’t stop the deep pass. If Jalen Hurts could dissect the Redskins’ defense, so can Prescott.

    Then again, the Cowboys could just lean on their rushing attack. We just saw the Eagles trample the Redskins with nearly 250 rushing yards, so Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard figure to perform well.

    RECAP: I loved the Cowboys against the Redskins two weeks ago. This matchup is trickier because the Cowboys will be less motivated. They just crushed Washington, and they have to battle the Cardinals next week. This could be a trap game.

    I won’t be betting the Cowboys for this reason. However, I would still select them in office pools because the mismatch between the Dallas defensive line and Washington’s blockers is too extreme.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Tyron Smith in practice yet. If Prescott were to break out of his slump, I’d have to think that it would be with Smith protecting his blind side.

    SATURDAY NOTES: I still have no strong lean toward this game. Tyron Smith is out, but the Redskins will be missing some key players like Brandon Scherff, William Jackson, Landon Collins and Cole Holcomb.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Some sharp money has come in on the Redskins. I like the Cowboys a bit, but not enough to bet them.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s mixed sharp action concerning this game. Some liked the Redskins at +10; others are on Dallas at -9.5. This line popped up to -10 minutes ago, but you can still get -9.5 -110 at FanDuel.



    The Motivation. Edge: Redskins.
    The Cowboys just crushed the Redskins. They play Arizona next week.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -8.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -9.5.
    Computer Model: Cowboys -9.5.
    DVOA Spread: Cowboys -10.




    The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
    I’m shocked there’s not more action on the Cowboys.

    Percentage of money on Dallas: 65% (124,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • History: Underdog has covered 16 of the previous 26 meetings.
  • The underdog is 107-76 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.
  • Cowboys are 25-37 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).
  • Cowboys are 25-33 ATS when favored after a win since 2010.
  • Opening Line: Cowboys -10.5.
  • Opening Total: 47.5.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 16 NFL Pick: Cowboys 27, Redskins 13
    Cowboys -9.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Cowboys 56, Redskins 14




    Miami Dolphins (7-7) at New Orleans Saints (7-7)
    Line: Dolphins by 2.5. Total: 37.5.

    Monday, Dec. 27, 8:15 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

    This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of New Orleans, where tonight, the New Orleans Pelicans battle the Miami Grizzlies. Guys, I have no idea who is on any of these teams, so let’s get to another important topic: Who got a cool gift for Christmas!? No one beats what I got!

    Emmitt: Player 069, I do not belief anybody should get anything for Chrispmas. I not even hanging any sockings on the chimney for socking suffers. This are because I does not trust Santa Claus because he break into your house and can stole anything he want to. He should be arrest for burgery.

    Reilly: Emmitt, I feel sorry for you for not believing that Santa is a good man. Santa delivers gifts to my house every Christmas eve. I even saw him this year! He was putting some of the gifts under the tree, but then he gave up and just sat down, stared at the wall for a while and began smoking a cigarette. Come to think of it, New Daddy does that all the time. What a crazy coincidence!

    Tollefson: Kevin, we celebrate Christmas much differently at the Tollefson household. Normally, I have my female sex slaves cook and clean naked for me, but to get into the holiday spirit, I have them put on sexy Santa outfits.

    Reilly: Tolly, I wish some of my favorite Philadelphia Eagles players would come to my house wearing Santa outfits. Maybe I’ll wish for that next year. This year, I got Nick Foles and Gardner Minshew blow-up dolls! I have them in my room, and I’ve been pretending that Nick Foles and Gardner Minshew are really there with me, and they’re my best friends in the whole entire world. I- wait a second, it’s Adam Schefter again! Adam, what are you doing underground?

    Schefter: Thanks, Kevin, I’ve been hiding in this secret compartment for the past five days so I could get the inside scoop to you directly. I’ve received permission from Jerry Jones to report the following story, and don’t worry, I’ve taken 511 Omnicron tests in the past 12 hours, and they’ve all come back negative. Sources tell me that there’s a new e-mail being leaked, and it’s from Kevin Reilly, Kevin. Here’s the e-mail: “It’s such BS that my request to meet the Philadelphia Eagles for the make-a-wish foundation was denied. Roger Goodell did this, I know it. He doesn’t want me to meet my favorite Philadelphia Eagles. He’s a total farter!” Back to you, Kevin!

    Reilly: How do you keep getting my e-mails!? This is total BS! I never called Roger Goodell a farter!

    Joe Biden: Farter? That’s what they called me at the pool when I was a lifeguard. They said, “Hey, there’s George the farter.” And I told them, “No, I’m the lifeguard at this pizzeria, and I call people by their first names.” This didn’t fly well with this Indian man who probably worked at a 7-11 named Jatavius. He called himself Honey Bunches of Oats. When I was serving him pie, I said, “Hey, Jatavius,” and he wanted to fight me because I didn’t call him Honey Bunches of Oats. He wanted to fight me outside, so I farted and everyone laughed. I fart now when I’m nervous too, except brown, smelly stuff comes out.

    Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Creepy Joe just said that he worked at a lifeguard and then he served pie. No one knows about lifeguarding like I do, and they don’t serve pies when you lifeguard. This is what I call, a fake lifeguard. No one knows more about lifeguarding than I do, and everyone agrees. I also know a lot about pies and how to get the best deals on pies. I called Chy-na, you know the country Chy-na? Sleepy Joe is in bed with Chy-na, but I treat them tough, believe me, tougher than anyone has ever treated them before, including O-bama. But I was on the phone with Chy-na, and their president – I call him Submarine Man, that’s a great nickname, believe me – and he offered me a pie for millions and millions. But I was able to talk him down! I got the pie for much cheaper, want to know how much cheaper? Just one million dollars. Sleepy Joe and his friend O-bama would have paid millions and millions for the pie, but I just paid one million. That was a heck of a deal, and everyone agrees!

    Wolfley: DONALD, THAT’S AMAZING. I ONCE PAID MILLIONS AND MILLIONS FOR JUST A SLICE OF PIE, SO TO GET A WHOLE PIE FOR A MILLION BUCKS IS A STEAL, ALMOST LIKE A BANK ROBBER WITH A NECK LIKE A TELEPHONE POLE AND THE LEGS OF A DUMPSTER TRUCK.

    Reilly: Guys, let’s focus here. I’m really going to get into trouble for this latest e-mail! Hey, what’s Roger Goodell doing here?

    Roger Goodell: Hey guys. Did you like how I said “hey guys?” This is something a hu-man would say. I too am a hu-man. And because I am hu-man like all of you, I must be upset about the horrible name-calling. Anyone who calls me mean names like – referencing data … buffering … loading – farter must be fired. Kevin Reilly, I am firing you.

    Reilly: NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! NEW DADDY, SAVE ME!

    Jay Cutler: Nah.

    Alec Baldwin: Bang! Bang! Bang! I’m not shooting anyone this time even though I didn’t shoot anyone before and it’s totally not my fault! I’m shooting my gun in celebration because Kevin Reilly is fired! Yeah! Bang! Bang! Bang! Yeehaw!

    Reilly: Alec, I was framed! I never sent these e-mails! I would never call anyone a farter!

    Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re discussing passing gas, Kevin. Let’s talk about ways to pass gays, Kevin. You can simply move and walk around, Kevin. You can try a massage, Kevin. What do you think about yoga poses, Kevin? That’s not yogurt, Kevin, but rather yoga, Kevin. I know you’re fat, Kevin, so you’re probably thinking about yogurt, Kevin. Speaking of edibles, Kevin, what do you think about herbs, Kevin? You can try apple cider vinegar, Kevin. Or what about bicarbonate of soda, Kevin? Kevin, do you have anything to say for yourself, Kevin? Maybe you can shed a tear so I can lick it, Kevin?

    Reilly: THIS IS SUCH BULLS**T, I NEVER SENT THESE E-MAILS, AND I DON’T DESERVE TO BE FIRED! I’M GOING TO MURDER WHOEVER SENT THOSE E-MAILS! We’ll be back after this!

    NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints pulled off a huge upset against the Buccaneers on Sunday night, but it’s not like their offense was remotely responsible for that. In fact, this side of the ball was nearly a liability for the Saints. Tampa Bay’s defense gave it the best chance of scoring, as Taysom Hill continued to be shy of 100-percent healthy with his Ryan Mallett finger.

    There is some good news for Hill, and that would be that the Dolphins blitz more than any other team in the NFL. Hill has been better when blitzed throughout his brief career. This will give him an opportunity to make some big plays, though he’ll still be limited by his troublesome finger.

    Meanwhile, Alvin Kamara will have an easier matchup this week. The Dolphins are mediocre when it comes to stopping the run, but this is a vast improvement for Kamara compared to last week when he battled the Buccaneers’ impenetrable ground defense.

    MIAMI OFFENSE: The Saints’ defense had an amazing performance against the Buccaneers. It felt like Tom Brady could’ve had 100 quarters, and he wouldn’t have gotten a single point. New Orleans has owned Brady over the years, though it didn’t hurt that Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette were all knocked out with injuries in the second and third quarters.

    The Dolphins will have more success against the Saints, provided they don’t lose their three best weapons. The Saints are great at locking down the top receiver or tight end on the opposing offense, but Tua Tagovailoa spreads the ball around so well. Jaylen Waddle will return this week, so the Saints will have to deal with him, DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki.

    Duke Johnson, based on last week’s performance, must be included in that pantheon as well. I couldn’t believe how great Johnson looked versus the Jets, but New York’s run defense is far worse than New Orleans’ unit.

    RECAP: I’m so shocked that this spread is only -3. The advance line was New Orleans -3.5, yet it has dropped half-a-point despite what the Saints did to the Buccaneers on national TV. There is heavy public action on New Orleans.

    If you’re thinking that this is shady business, you’re almost right. Wrong five-letter S-word. It’s “sharp” business. The pros have been betting the Dolphins, preventing a higher spread from being posted. I’m frustrated that we’re not getting a better number, as I’m a fan of the Dolphins in this spot as well.

    Though the Saints beat the Buccaneers, they’re not a good team, and they have an injured quarterback. I rank the Dolphins as a better team than the Saints, so I think this spread isn’t correct. In fact, I believe Miami should be favored! New Orleans has been very unimpressive outside of its two games against the Buccaneers, and I doubt it’ll have the same emotional level in this contest.

    This will be a three-unit wager for now. The unit count will grow depending on the status of the Saints’ top two tackles.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has been removed because both Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian have been placed on the virus list. That means Ian Book will have to start for the Saints. I suspect the Dolphins will re-open as favorites.

    SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a chance Terron Armstead will play. His status will impact my unit count. Despite the line move as a result of Ian Book starting in favor of Taysom Hill, I still like the Dolphins quite a bit.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has risen to -3 in most places, but FanDuel still has -2.5 -115 available. I’m going to lock this in now for three units. We lost our value, but the Dolphins should be able to win easily against Ian Book.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Terron Armstead has been ruled out, which means the Saints are without both tackles, their top three quarterbacks, their top two linebackers, and a starting safety. How can they possibly win this game? Well, I asked the same thing about the Colts on Saturday, and they prevailed. That said, I love the Dolphins, and I’m glad I locked them in at -2.5. If you haven’t bet this game yet, the best spread is -3 -113 at Bookmaker. The sharps are on Miami.



    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: Dolphins.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Dolphins -1.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -3.5.
    Computer Model: Saints -3.
    DVOA Spread: Saints -8.




    The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
    People are off the Saints because of the quarterback situation.

    Percentage of money on New Orleans: 62% (116,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: Saints -3.
  • Opening Total: 40.5.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 16 NFL Pick: Dolphins 16, Saints 10
    Dolphins -2.5 -115 (4 Units) – FanDuel — Correct; +$400
    Under 37.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Dolphins 20, Saints 3






    week 16 NFL Picks – Early Games
    49ers at Titans, Browns at Packers, Colts at Cardinals, Lions at Falcons, Ravens at Bengals, Rams at Vikings, Bills at Patriots, Jaguars at Jets, Giants at Eagles, Buccaneers at Panthers, Chargers at Texans




    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


    Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 16 NFL Picks – Early Games



    2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 9


    NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


    NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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    Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.


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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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