NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2021

Detroit Lions (1-10-1) at Denver Broncos (6-6)
Line: Broncos by 12.5. Total: 42.
Sunday, Dec. 12, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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They are such shills, I’m shocked they haven’t actually changed their pronouns to Pfi and Zer.

DETROIT OFFENSE: People love to criticize Jared Goff because he hasn’t lived up to his billing as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, but he came through in the clutch last week. His drive against the Vikings at the end was a thing of beauty, outside of the delay-of-game penalty. He converted three third or fourth downs, ultimately finding Amon-Ra St. Brown in the end zone.

Even though the Broncos are 16th in pass defense DVOA, Goff will once again have success in this game, as the Broncos, much like the Eric Kendricks-less Vikings, can’t defend the middle of the field. They have terrible linebacker play, while slot cornerback Kyle Fuller has been a big liability this year. This bodes well for Goff, as he prefers throwing to T.J. Hockenson, St. Brown (who plays in the slot) and his running backs.

The Broncos are at their strongest on the outside, both with their cornerbacks and edge rushers. Goff releases the ball quickly and doesn’t bother targeting his outside receivers all that often.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos looked utterly foolish this past Sunday night, as Javonte Williams was spectacular in his first game handling the full workload. I don’t understand why it took an injury to Melvin Gordon to unleash Williams. He should have been given the majority of the touches well beforehand. Gordon is a good running back, but Williams is special with his ability to break tackles at a high rate.

Unless the Broncos are insanely stupid, they’ll continue feeding Williams, who figures to thrive in this matchup. The Lions aren’t very good against the run, so Williams figures to have a big performance.

Williams’ excellent running will give Teddy Bridgewater easier throwing opportunities. He’ll need them, as the one thing the Lions do well on this side of the ball is hound the quarterback. Believe it or not, they’re 10th in pressure rate. The Broncos don’t have the best offensive line, so Detroit figures to win in the trenches.

RECAP: I’ve heard speculation that the Lions will be flat following their first victory of the year because they finally won a game. It seemed reasonable to believe they’d be flat until I looked it up. Teams that start 0-10 or worse are 5-5 against the spread following their initial victory. This includes the Jets last year, who upset the Browns after beating the Rams.

With that in mind, I’m not afraid to place a bet on the Lions. They seem like the right side, as Denver seems very unappealing as a large favorite. The Broncos have liabilities that make them a fade as a huge favorite. They have a big liability in the middle of their defense, and they typically have issues scoring into the 20s. Denver’s offense simply isn’t good enough to warrant this high of a number. Detroit, meanwhile, hasn’t lost by more than three points since prior to its Week 9 bye.

Yet again, this is an ugly week. I have multi-unit bets planned on the Jaguars, Jets, Texans, and now the Lions. Grab the Pepto Bismol!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: An illness has been spreading throughout the Lions’ locker room (non-Xi virus), which has caused some sharp money to the pound the Broncos up to -10. I wonder if this was an overreaction. We’ll see if anyone is sidelined come Sunday.

SATURDAY NOTES: I liked the Lions a lot earlier in the week, but I’ve done a complete 180 on this game. The Lions have been ravaged by all sorts of illnesses. They won’t have multiple offensive linemen and pass rushers. Some key defenders like Tracy Walker and Julian Okwara will be sidelined. Both of their running backs are out, as is T.J. Hockenson. I thought the Lions could attack the middle of Denver’s defense with D’Andre Swift/Jamaal Williams and Hockenson. That’s no longer a possibility. Given the state of Detroit’s roster right now, it’s going to be difficult for this game to be close. This line may seem high now, but consider: 1) The sharps are betting Denver heavily, and 2) The Broncos have blown out bad teams this year, crushing the Giants, Jaguars and Jets, all by double digits. If they could beat the Chargers by 15 two weeks ago, they can crush the skeleton-crew Lions roster by as many points.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s speculation that the Lions could have just 48 active players today. They’re a mess, and it’s no surprise that sharp money continues to flood in on Denver. I regret not betting the -10 or even the -10.5 because this line has ballooned to -12.5 in most sportsbooks. I’m going to lock this in now before the line continues to rise.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Lions don’t have as many inactives as suspected, but they’re still missing a ton of players. This line is now -13 in some sportsbooks, but you can get -12.5 at Bovada. The sharps are on Denver at -11.5 and below.

New York Giants (4-8) at Los Angeles Chargers (7-5)
Line: Chargers by 10. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Dec. 12, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now.

By the way, my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Let’s begin with the Giants because it’s unclear who the starting quarterback will be. Reports indicate that Daniel Jones is likely to sit. Mike Glennon, who played well last week except for his one deep interception, suffered a concussion. It remains to be seen if he’ll be cleared by the time this game begins. If not, Jake Fromm, a 2020 fifth-round pick out of Georgia, will see his first NFL action.

Glennon would once again be the ideal option for the Giants. The Chargers blitz at the 12th-highest rate in the NFL, and Glennon plays much better against the blitz than Jones. Fromm, on the other hand, is a complete unknown. I’ll be watching his preseason tape from this summer later in the week if he’s officially declared the starter. Looking at our Jake Fromm Scouting Report, published by the great Charlie Campbell, Fromm shows anticipation and is an excellent decision-maker. He has a noodle of an arm, but that doesn’t matter too much in this regard.

What does matter is which receivers the Giants will have available. They were down Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard last week, and then they saw Kenny Golladay get hurt. As a result, the Giants dropped six passes. Fromm starting with only a banged-up Golladay would not be ideal.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: It may be instinctive to believe that the Chargers will simply demolish the Giants, but New York is eighth in pass defense DVOA. They have some spectacular players in their secondary, which is one of the reasons they were able to limit the Chiefs to 20 points back in Week 8.

Excluding the Buccaneers, no team has scored more than 20 points against the Giants since Week 6. The Chargers may not reach that total if Keenan Allen isn’t available. Allen may be sidelined this week, forcing Justin Herbert to rely more on Jalen Guyton and his tight ends. The Giants should be able to limit Mike Williams and put pressure on Herbert. They blitz at an average rate, and we know how bad Herbert can be versus the blitz.

The Giants are at their worst defending the run because they miss Blake Martinez. This is a matchup the Chargers will be able to exploit with Austin Ekeler, though I’m sure they’ll be hoping Ekeler doesn’t fumble again after coughing up the ball twice this past Sunday.

RECAP: I’m not sure what I’m doing with this game yet because it depends on the quarterback situation. If Daniel Jones starts, I will bet on the Chargers on what I assume to be a lower point spread. Jones struggles against the blitz and will undoubtedly be responsible for many turnovers. If it’s Glennon, I’ll be on the Giants. Glennon is much better versus the blitz, and this spread is too high, especially when considering the Allen situation, New York’s excellent pass defense, and the fact that the Chargers have to prepare for the Chiefs in four days.

However, it seems as though Fromm will get the nod. If that ends up being the case, I’ll watch every snap of his from this preseason in preparation for this game and report my findings. I’ll have an update later, so check back as the week progresses or follow me @walterfootball.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It seems as though Keenan Allen and Mike Williams may miss this game. If they’re both out, I’m going to bet the Giants no matter what’s happening with their receiving corps and quarterback situation. Sharp money on the Giants has brought this line down to +10.

SATURDAY NOTES: Thank goodness I don’t have to watch Jake Fromm preseason tape! Mike Glennon will start. I really like the Giants to cover this high spread. The Chargers are missing some key players – Keenan Allen, Asante Samuel Jr. – and they’ll be looking ahead to Thursday night’s game against the Chiefs. This is a four-unit bet I’m locking in now because the +10 lines are disappearing as a result of sharp action on the Giants.

MONEYLINE ADDED: I’m risking 0.5 units to win 1.7 on the Giants moneyline. Given the injuries the Chargers have, the Giants could win this one outright.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Giants should have Sterling Shepard and Kenny Golladay available, which is nice. This line has fallen to +9, so I’m glad I locked in the +10.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Derwin James is out, while Sterling Shepard and Kenny Golladay will play. This is a nice edge for the Giants, who should be able to cover this high sread. The sharps dropped the line to +9 in most sportsbooks. If you want to pay up for +10, the best vig I see is -125 at BetUS, which is not worth it.

San Francisco 49ers (6-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)
Line: 49ers by 2. Total: 49.
Sunday, Dec. 12, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Unknown.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals tried their best to engineer a comeback from down 24-0 against the Chargers, but Joe Burrow’s dislocated pinky finger made that difficult. Burrow was not quite the same after that, as he was dealing with lots of pain.

Burrow’s finger won’t be healed in time for this game, so he won’t be able to take advantage of the injuries the 49ers have in their secondary. San Francisco saw its top healthy outside cornerback, Emmanuel Moseley, suffer an injury against the Seahawks. If he’s not available, the San Francisco defensive backfield won’t be able to cover Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. It’s just a matter of Burrow being able to deliver the ball to them.

Another potential issue for the Bengals is the status of the offensive line. The front was missing two starters against the Chargers, as Riley Reiff and Trey Hopkins were sidelined. If they’re out again, it’ll be difficult for the Bengals to keep the San Francisco pass rushers out of the backfield. Joe Mixon’s run blocking won’t be great in that circumstance either.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers also have an injury concern on this side of the ball, and that would be to Deebo Samuel. The talented receiver missed last week’s game with a groin issue. Kyle Shanahan’s latest update is that he’s “hoping” Samuel will be able to play.

Having Samuel on the field would be huge for this matchup because the Bengals don’t defend the middle of the field well at all. This was apparent this past week when they had problems dealing with Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen. The 49ers love attacking the middle of the field with Samuel and George Kittle. This is a huge edge for them in this matchup if Samuel can play.

Cincinnati’s defensive calling card is its ability to pressure the quarterback. The Bengals were able to rattle Justin Herbert at times this past Sunday, but Jimmy Garoppolo happens to be well protected.

RECAP: If Burrow were definitely healthy, I’d be torn on this game because the Bengals would be able to expose the 49ers’ secondary. They have numerous injuries at the position, which will make it difficult for them to defend anything, especially if Fred Warner is out again.

However, Burrow is dealing with an injured pinky that could affect his throwing ability in this contest. I have no desire to bet on an injured quarterback, though it’s unclear how hindered he’ll be in this contest. For this reason, the 49ers seem appealing. However, we’ll need news on Burrow, the Cincinnati offensive linemen, Samuel and Warner to make a concrete selection. Check back for updates, or follow me @walterfootball.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The 49ers are now favored, thanks to major sharp action coming in on them. Joe Burrow was limited in Wednesday’s practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: This line has moved so far toward the 49ers that I’m now considering changing my pick to the Bengals. I just worry about Burrow’s finger. Reports say that he looked normal in Friday’s practice, but I’ll believe it when I see it because these practice reports have been horrendous this season. Furthermore, there’s a chance Joe Mixon and Chidboe Awuzie could miss this game. Meanwhile, the 49ers will have Fred Warner back in action, while Deebo Samuel could play as well. With so many question marks, I’m not going to bet this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like Deebo Samuel will play, which has caused the line to rise to -2. All the value is gone with the 49ers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps continue to bet the 49ers, perhaps because Deebo Samuel is active. This line has moved so much that I almost considered betting up to +3 on Cincinnati, but I don’t trust Joe Burrow’s health. I’m not going to bet this game.

Buffalo Bills (7-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3)
Line: Buccaneers by 4. Total: 53.
Sunday, Dec. 12, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Emmitt on the Brink was posted here. Now, Emmitt makes an appearance in my new book, How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen!

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A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called the Halloween Birthday Party. Read about all the dumb kids I encountered at my nephew’s Halloween birthday party!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: I bet Josh Allen will be thrilled that he won’t have to battle the insane Orchard Park winds that he dealt with Monday night. Unless there’s an unexpected hurricane in Tampa Bay this weekend, Allen will have ideal conditions to put together a stronger performance.

I believe Allen will have a great game, as the Bills’ offense matches up so well against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is excellent versus the run, but Buffalo doesn’t even try to run the ball consistently unless it’s very windy. The Bills pass heavily, which is ideal against the Buccaneers’ pass-funnel defense. Tampa Bay’s defensive backfield is currently better than it was earlier in the year because it has gotten its cornerbacks from injury, but Allen has so many weapons at his disposal that it’ll be problematic for the Buccaneers to defend them all.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: It’s extremely difficult to slow down Tom Brady, but the Bills have the recipe to do it. The only way to rattle Brady is to put heavy pressure on him with the front four without blitzing. The Bills can do that. They have the No. 1 pressure defense in the NFL, and they don’t blitz very often. Brady is extremely well protected, but there’s a reason no quarterback has fared well versus Buffalo’s defense this year.

Brady will likely have his worst performance of the season, but there’s a bit of hope. The Bills no longer have a healthy Tre’Davious White, so Mike Evans will see softer coverage on the outside. The same can’t be said of Chris Godwin, who will battle tougher personnel in the slot.

Also, the Bills aren’t great against the run. They allow some big plays, so Leonard Fournette could generate a couple of big gains to help Brady in this extremely difficult matchup.

RECAP: I love this matchup for the Bills. Allen will beat Tampa’s pass-funnel defense, while Buffalo’s pass rush will be able to put plenty of heat on Brady. Despite these matchup edges, the Buccaneers are favored by more than a field goal in this contest. I consider these teams close to even, so there’s no reason Tampa Bay should be listed at -3.5.

I’m going to have a few units on the Bills. I have to say, it’s nice to be betting a good team for a change!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Buccaneers got a bit banged up in the Atlanta game, so they may not be at full strength in this contest. I’m more bullish on the Bills now.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bills are my top play this week. I love how they match up against the Buccaneers, and they’re the more desperate team. The Bills are undefeated against the spread following a loss this year, and I expect that to remain that way after this game. This is my top bet this week, and I’m going to lock in the +4 -116 at Bookmaker now. This line could easily fall to +3 on Sunday, so even though I could miss out on a better +4 price, I’d feel better about making sure I got this number right now.

MONEYLINE ADDED: The Bills have a good chance to win this outright. The best moneyline is +158 at Bookmaker.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I made good calls to lock in the Cowboys and Giants, but that’s not the case here because +4 -113 is available at Bookmaker.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The best spread remains +4 -113 at Bookmaker. The sharps haven’t touched this game, but I still love the Bills.

Chicago Bears (4-8) at Green Bay Packers (9-3)
Line: Packers by 11.5. Total: 43.
Sunday, Dec. 12, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Bears were able to limit the Packers to 24 points in their previous meeting back in Week 6. That sort of result may not be possible this time, however, as Chicago’s defense is now far worse than it was back then.

Chicago is missing some of its key defenders. Most prominently, Khalil Mack is out for the season, while Akiem Hicks hasn’t been healthy in weeks. This would explain why the Bears now have the second-worst pressure rate in the NFL. This is important for the Packers, given that they’re missing their top two left tackles and their center. Aaron Rodgers will see less pressure than he would against most opponents, which will allow him to connect frequently to Davante Adams and the rest of his receivers.

The Bears have also gotten weak against the run in the wake of Hicks’ absence, which doesn’t bode well against Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Both backs could have strong performances as they share the workload.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Justin Fields made the fourth start of his career against the Packers back in Week 6, and he may make his first start since returning from injury in this contest. Fields injured his ribs in the third quarter of the Baltimore contest back in Week 11, and he’s been out ever since. Andy Dalton has started in his place, and he was a total disaster this past Sunday, committing four interceptions, giving Arizona 24 points in the process. It’s unclear why he’s been starting over Nick Foles.

Fields had a decent outing against the Packers in Week 6, going 16-of-27 for 174 yards and a touchdown. He also scrambled for 43 rushing yards, and his running ability will be key against a Packer defense that doesn’t defend the middle of the field very well.

Green Bay is woeful against the run in general. The team is in the bottom half in the rush defense rankings. This doesn’t bode well against Montgomery, who is coming off a strong performance against the Cardinals. Montgomery didn’t play in the first meeting.

RECAP: The Packers are obviously the better team, and if they’re fully focused to play the Bears, they’ll demolish them. However, the motivational angle must be considered, and there’s good reason to believe that Green Bay won’t be fully engaged in this game.

The Packers are coming off a big win versus the Rams. They’ve had the entire bye week to hear about how great they are. Now, they take on a Chicago team they’ve beaten already, and they somehow have to be completely focused despite having to battle the Ravens next week in a potential Super Bowl matchup.

Furthermore, we’re getting a bit of line value with the Bears. The advance spread was -11, and now it’s up to -12.5 because of Chicago’s ugly loss to the Cardinals. This just seems like such a high spread for a team missing three starting offensive linemen. If I’m remotely correct about the Packers being unfocused, the Bears should be able to cover this inflated line.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Justin Fields will start. I don’t think the Bears would go back to him if he weren’t 100 percent. Speaking of quarterbacks with health issues, Aaron Rodgers missed Wednesday’s practice with his troublesome toe. He was great in his previous game despite the toe, but it’s worth noting that he’s still missing practice time despite coming off a bye.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m going to increase my unit count because Allen Robinson and Akiem Hicks will be back in the lineup. Save for Khalil Mack, the Bears are healthy, while the Packers won’t have three starting offensive linemen. There’s also no guarantee that Aaron Rodgers will be 100 percent.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has dropped to +11 or +11.5, depending on the sportsbook. The sharps bet the Bears. I’m going to lock in the +11.5 -105 at Bovada.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m disappointed to see Akiem Hicks be ruled out. I thought he would play. If I didn’t lock this in already, I’d drop this to three units. I still like the Bears a lot, and so do the sharps. The best line is +11.5 -110 at Bovada and DraftKings. None of this probably matters because we’ll probably get screwed out of another cover anyway.

Los Angeles Rams (8-4) at Arizona Cardinals (10-2)
Line: Cardinals by 2.5. Total: 51.5.
Monday, Dec. 13, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Arizona, where the Phoenix Cardinals take on the Chicago Cubs. Guys, I thought both of these teams were bad until I opened the newspaper today after Mother was done with the business section, and I saw that they both have good records. I thought Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger were washed up, so it’s cool to hear that they’re still doing well. I like when old guys do well because I’m getting up there in age, but Mother says that I’m a late bloomer and I’ll bloom like a bright flower.

Emmitt: Hwang Jun-ho, you might want to investigation who the quarterback are on these team. The Cardinal have a guy name Kyle Murphy, and the Ram have Jared Golf. Golf the game where the guy swing the bat and hit the ball on the hole.

Reilly: Emmitt, I’ve never heard of these people, but maybe it’s because I haven’t played fantasy football in a couple of years. I used to do so, but Mother found out I was gambling, so she shut down the entire operation even though I was only betting pogs and trolls.

Tollefson: Kevin, you are just the person I wanted to talk to. I’m looking to fund a gambling operation where some of my female slaves will battle to the death in an underground arena. These will be the female slaves who are not good at cooking and cleaning, of course. I’m not some sort of barbarian. Anyway, I was hoping you would get in this with money with some of your mom’s allowance.

Reilly: Tolly, I’ll ask Mother if I can help you fund this female slave fighting ring, but even though I won’t tell her about the gambling, I have a feeling she’s going to say no because she’s afraid I’ll get cooties from these women. Speaking of cooties, what is that horrible smell?

Schefter: Thanks, Kevin, I’ve been hiding under your desk for the past five days just waiting for you to arrive. I talked to Mike Mayock, and he told me I could release my latest story to you. I have the next e-mail you’ve written, Kevin, but first I must test myself for the Omnicron variant. There are lots of viral variants out there, but Omnicron sounds so scary so it must be very dangerous! While we wait for my test, here’s the e-mail: “Hey Tolly, can you please kill Herm Edwards for me? He’s a doo-doo head, and I hate him.” Kevin, I can’t tell you how offensive this is. Some people identify as doo-doo heads, so calling someone who is not a doo-doo head a doo-doo head can be very upsetting. Guys, looks like I got my test back, and I tested negative for Omnicron! Thank goodness, I’m going to live! Back to you, Kevin!

Reilly: First of all, it’s Omicron; not Omnicron. I know this because Mother flunked me on my most recent test for writing Omnicron.

Joe Biden: Oh no, don’t give me a test, Mrs. Ballard! I’m not ready for a pop quiz. I’m gonna cheat off Sally in front of me after I sniff her hair. That’s how I absorb intelligence. It has nothing to do with drinking kids’ blood. Why do people say I drink kids’ blood? I get kids’ blood injected into my body like a normal person and not some vampire, you cat-bellied donkey pirate.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, wrong, wrong, you don’t get kids’ blood injected into you, you suck it in from the scalp, Sleepy Joe. You suck it in from the scalp. Excuse me, excuse me, did anyone hear that Sleepy, Creepy Joe is going to cheat off Sally on the pop quiz? No one knows more about pop quizzes than me, believe me, I’m the best at pop quizzes, and everyone agrees. Cheating off Sally’s a bad idea, Sleepy Joe! Sally’s a total disaster. No one is worse at taking pop quizzes than Sally, believe me, and anyone who cheats off her is a total disgrace. It’s such a disgrace, I call it, the greatest disgrace.

Wolfley: DONALD, I MUST DISAGREE WITH YOU. I’VE STUDIED SALLY’S TEST-TAKING SKILLS, AND SHE IS ONE OF THE BEST TEST-TAKERS ANYONE HAS EVER SEEN. SHE’S SUCH A GREAT TEST-TAKER THAT SHE REMINDS ME OF A NAIL CLIPPER STUCK IN A PHONE BOOTH ON WHEELS.

Reilly: If only I could take a test with Sally in the room, but Mother will say that she will give me cooties. New Daddy, can you convince Mother to have Sally take tests with me? I need an A+ on my next test to get Christmas presents from Santa. If I get a bad grade, Santa will leave me coal for Christmas.

Jay Cutler: Kid, you know that I’m Santa, right? The only reason I dress up as Santa is because your mom is kinky and likes to bang mall Santas.

Alec Baldwin: Bang? Did someone just say bang? I totally did not pull the trigger and kill that woman even though all evidence says I did!

Reilly: New Daddy, I didn’t know that you were Santa! Does that mean Mother is Mrs. Claus?

Wolfley: WRONG, KEVIN, MRS. CLAUS WON THE ELECTION TO BE PRESIDENT OF OMNICRON IV, WHICH IS ONE OF THE PLANETS IN MY SOLAR SYSTEM.

Schefter: DID SOMEONE SAY OMNICRON!? AHHHHH!!!! SO SCARRRYYYYY!!!

Reilly: Guys, we’re off topic here. Can we discuss how New Daddy is really Santa!?

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re discussing fictional holiday characters, Kevin. You already mentioned Santa, Kevin, who isn’t real, Kevin. Spoiler alert, Kevin. Not real, Kevin. Let’s get to other things that aren’t real, Kevin. How about the Easter Bunny, Kevin? That’s not a real thing either, Kevin. What do you think about the Valentine’s Day cupid, Kevin? Doesn’t exist, Kevin. What about the Great Pumpkin that rises out of the pumpkin patch, Kevin? He never rose, Kevin. Linus waited for nothing, Kevin. What do you think of Hanukkah Harry, Kevin? Not real either, Kevin. Do you like Flag Day Platypus, Kevin? He’s fake, too, Kevin.

Reilly: YOU’RE SUCH A BULLS***ER, CHARLES DAVIS, MY NEW DADDY IS SANTA, AND FLAG DAY PLATYPUS IS TOTALLY REAL, A**HOLE! We’ll be back after this!

ARIZONA OFFENSE: We can probably say for sure that Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are healthy, though they didn’t have to do much versus Chicago. Murray threw 15 times, and Hopkins caught just two passes. They simply didn’t have to do anything with Andy Dalton giving them 24 points off turnovers.

However, Murray was able to scramble around effectively, so his ankle looked just fine. Hopkins, meanwhile, made an acrobatic catch in the end zone, so his hamstring may have recovered as well. Murray torched the Rams the last time he played them, using his scrambling ability to elude the pass rushers and make big plays. The Rams now have Von Miller to rush the passer, and the Cardinals could still be missing Justin Pugh, so there’s reason to believe that Murray won’t be as great in the rematch.

As for Hopkins, he’s going to have to deal with Jalen Ramsey, so Murray will have to look elsewhere. He’ll have a new weapon at his disposal to deal with the Rams, as Zach Ertz figures to beat Los Angeles over the middle of the field.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: While the Cardinals obtained a new offensive weapon, the Rams lost one of theirs in Robert Woods. They’ve tried to replace him with Odell Beckham Jr., but Matthew Stafford and Beckham haven’t quite clicked yet.

Woods’ absence will be prevalent in this matchup. The Cardinals have one of the better cornerbacks in the NFL, Byron Murphy, and he helped limit Cooper Kupp to his lowest output of the year in the first meeting between these teams. Kupp caught just five passes for 64 yards in that contest, and that was when Stafford was completely healthy. Stafford seemed better versus the Jaguars, but wasn’t exactly tested.

The Rams, at the very worst, should be able to run effectively on the Cardinals. Arizona’s ground defense used to be solid, but it has collapsed in the wake of J.J. Watt’s injury. Darrell Henderson may not be at full strength, but Sony Michel figures to continue his strong running from last week.

RECAP: It’s possible that both quarterbacks won’t be at 100 percent, but it’s more likely that Murray will be healthier than Stafford. Murray’s ankle seemed to be healed when he was scrambling around against Chicago, while Stafford’s chronic back issues are, well, chronic.

I’m going to pick the Cardinals for that reason. That said, I don’t really see any strong edges in this game, and the line is where I believe it should be, so I’m not anticipating that I’ll be making any wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp action on the Rams has taken this line off +3 down to +1.5. Other sharps came in and bet the Cardinals at -1.5. The pros are torn on this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Two injuries of note: The Rams likely won’t have their center, Brian Allen. Meanwhile, the Cardinals could get back Justin Pugh, who was limited all week in practice. Pugh has been out since Week 10, so his presence against the Rams’ stellar front would be a huge boon to Arizona’s offense. I’m still leaning toward the Cardinals, but I don’t see a big edge in this game, outside of maybe Matthew Stafford’s back not being quite right yet. I could see myself betting one unit on Arizona by Monday.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: No update from Saturday’s notes. I’ll post my final thoughts around 7:30 p.m. on Monday.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Jalen Ramsey and Tyler Higbee are both out due to illnes. This line popped to -3 -110 in most sportsbooks, so it could continue to rise. I’m going to lock in two units on Arizona.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I wish I had waited for a better line because -3 -103 is available at Bookmaker. You can actually buy down to -2.5 -124 at that sportsbook, which I would do. The sharps bet Arizona at -2.5 but not -3.