NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2021

New York Jets (2-5) at Indianapolis Colts (3-5)
Line: Colts by 10.5. Total: 46.5.
Thursday, Nov. 4, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 8 Analysis: Yet another tilting week. I’ll break down all the multi-unit picks once again:

Panthers, 5 units (win): I still can’t believe the Falcons were three-point favorites against a competent team with a superior defense.

Eagles, 4 units (win): This was so easy in hindsight. The Lions shot their load against the Rams. They had absolutely nothing left.

Colts, 8 units (loss): I can’t believe what happened in this game. The Colts had a 14-0 lead. They looked great. Then, they began playing stupid football. They gave the Titans a short field on a turnover on downs, which Tennessee turned into a touchdown. The Titans scored again after an intercepting Indianapolis player lost a fumble while getting hurt. Then, there were the two horrible Carson Wentz interceptions. I maybe get the pick-six because Wentz was trying not to get sacked for a safety, but what the hell was that pass in overtime? It was first down, so why did he heave a pass into triple coverage, especially when Jonathan Taylor was wide open for a 20-yard gain!? And why didn’t Wentz get the pass interference call on the previous possession in overtime? The Colts’ defense was excellent in this game. They limited Derrick Henry, and they surrendered 17 points if you take away the points off turnovers. Everyone on the Colts not named Wentz outplayed the Titans, but Wentz quite literally threw the game away with his moronic decision-making. Congrats on surrendering a first-round pick on that mask-wearing bum, Indianapolis.

Bears, 4 units (loss): Argh. The Bears led for a good chunk of the game despite being 4.5-point underdogs. The offense made some mistakes that cost them a chance at the cover, while the defense couldn’t get a single stop.

Chargers, 3 units (loss): The Chargers played better than the Patriots overall, averaging 1.7 more yards per play. However, Justin Herbert imploded. He threw two interceptions, and the Patriots scored 10 points off of them. The Chargers were leading prior to Herbert’s pick-six. This was probably the wrong side because of the Herbert matchup versus Bill Belichick, but I thought the Chargers were the right play off their humiliating loss.

Cowboys, 4 units (win): Betting on good teams with their backup quarterbacks as long as the line overadjusts is one of my favorite strategies. It worked out again.

Chiefs, 5 units (loss): The Chiefs won by double digits the last two times they were coming off a loss. This time, they were absolutely pathetic. They continued to have inexplicable turnovers. I wrote this last week, but these Chiefs remind me of my picks. Everything looks good on paper, and there was lots of great success in recent seasons, but things inexplicably have gone wrong this year. I find myself constantly yelling at the TV, “Can something go my way once in a while?” Seriously, every ball bounced into the arms of a Giants player Monday night, yet when the Chiefs had a chance at a pick-six, the defender slipped on the field. It’s been brutal.

This is the final week of the first half of the season. Let’s hope we leave the bad variance behind us and finish the year on a high note.

A couple of things: First, I’m going to remind you every week that my wife is due around Christmas, so there will be a week in December when my picks and/or recaps could be released late. Second, I just published a book called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



This book is not completely about football; it’s more political than anything, so some of you will hate it. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon bans it at some point, so get it while you can. Nevertheless, if you want to support the site, please consider ordering a copy!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: It’s only fitting that I get to write about the “mask-wearing bum” first. Wentz was so frustrating against the Titans. Despite the easy matchup, Wentz made a number of mistakes, with the overtime interception being the worst because he had a wide-open Jonathan Taylor in front of him for a 20-yard gain. This would’ve moved the Colts to around midfield. Ugh.

Wentz has been able to benefit from tons of deep pass interferences because he’s such a YOLO passer. I’m sure he’ll draw more infractions in this game, given that the Jets have a weak secondary. New York also doesn’t possess much of a pass rush, so Wentz will have plenty of time in the pocket. That said, Wentz may not have T.Y. Hilton, who got hurt versus the Titans, of course. Hilton’s absence will make it easier for the Jets to defend the deep ball.

The Colts will be able to establish Taylor regardless. The Jets have been weak to the run, so Taylor has a much easier matchup this week. Perhaps his constant decent gains will prevent Wentz from airing the ball out too often.
NEW YORK OFFENSE: Mike White was incredible in his first start. I’m not exaggerating. I did a deep dive of his performance in the NFL Game Recaps page, and he was excellent. Nearly every single pass of his was right on the money. He was decisive in his throws and released the ball quickly. The 400-yard performance didn’t seem like a fluke.

Then again, maybe it was. We’ve seen the Nick Mullenses of the world emerge and then fade. Then again, Mullens didn’t even hit 300 yards in his legendary Thursday night debut versus the Raiders in 2018. White will be matched up against a defense that suffered some injuries against the Titans, so he might be able to keep playing as well as he did last week.

The Colts are better against the run than the pass, as evidenced by their dominant performance against Derrick Henry last week. They’ll limit Michael Carter, but Carter should do well as a receiver out of the backfield. Carter has been impressive in regards to his ability to break tackles, so he’ll continue to serve as a key weapon for White.

RECAP: I considered picking the Colts initially because the superior team has an edge on a short week. Plus, White’s glass slippers could turn into a pumpkin, or whatever. There’s a chance what he did versus Cincinnati was a mirage.

However, after some consideration, I’m siding with the Jets. The Colts, who might be missing Hilton and some defenders, are coming off an exhausting overtime affair against their biggest rival, so they could be flat against an unfamiliar quarterback. The overtime dynamic is not something I’m pulling out of my buttocks. Teams playing on Thursday are a mind-boggling 3-24 against the spread coming off overtime if their opponent is not. I hate trends, but this makes sense, given how insane it is to play a football game on such short rest in the first place.

Given that I was indecisive with this game, I’m not going to bet it, but I may change my mind if the injury report unearths anything interesting.

Our Week 9 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Colts will be down T.Y. Hilton, Tyquan Lewis and Khari Willis; the latter absence means that both starting safeties will be missing. This could allow the Jets to hang around, assuming they don’t establish an early lead. That said, I’m worried about what we saw with White last week being a mirage. The Colts have clobbered bad teams this year (Dolphins, Texans), so this could be another blowout unless White is legit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no surprises on the inactives list, save for Marlon Mack, but he doesn’t matter as far as the result of this game is concerned. I’m still on the Jets. I can make a good case for the Colts as well, so I have no interest in betting this contest. There’s no sharp action either; just slight public money pushing this line down to +10. I looked around for a viable +10.5, but can’t find one outside of FanDuel’s +10.5 -115. The best +10 is at Bookmaker for -107 vig.

Houston Texans (1-7) at Miami Dolphins (1-7)
Line: Dolphins by 6. Total: 45.
Sunday, Nov. 7, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Tyrod Taylor is considered day to day, which sounds like he’ll finally be able to return for this game. Taylor is 2-0 against the spread in his starts this year, while Davis Mills has been either 1-5 or 2-4, depending on which number you had in the Rams contest last week.

Taylor obviously gives the Texans a chance to not only compete, but to win this game. He can actually threaten the Dolphins’ secondary with deep passes to Brandin Cooks, and he’ll be able to use his legs to dance around the Miami linebacking corps. With Laremy Tunsil out, Taylor’s mobility will be crucial. Mills does not possess this trait, which is one of the reasons why he’s struggled so much.

The Texans, however, don’t completely match up well against the Dolphins. Miami struggles at stopping the run, but the Texans can’t establish a potent ground attack because their running backs are horrible. That said, Taylor’s scrambling threat could help the Huston runners find some more room.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Tua Tagovailoa continues to be a frustrating quarterback. He’s incredibly accurate at times, but he tends to make bone-headed decisions that swing the game. Even with DeVante Parker back on the field last week, this continued to be a problem.

Still, Tagovailoa is young, so improvements can be made, especially if the offensive line improves. Miami’s blocking unit has been dreadful this year, and the Texans are capable of putting some pressure on opposing quarterbacks. I expect more of the same from Tagovailoa. He’ll look great on most throws, but he’ll commit one or two horrible plays that could put the victory in jeopardy.

Like the Texans, the Dolphins don’t run the ball effectively. The coaching staff has been reluctant to give its best running back, Myles Gaskin, the majority of the carries, though it was forced to last week in the wake of Malcolm Brown’s injury. Gaskin, however, could have a nice performance as a receiver out of the backfield versus Houston’s poor linebackers. Mike Gesicki will thrive as well.

RECAP: It hit me as soon as I woke up this morning: I wanted to bet the Texans at +7. There’s a good chance that Taylor will play in this game, and if so, this spread will drop. If Taylor sits, I’m still fading a bad offense at +7. The Dolphins have scored 16, 0, 25, 17, 17, 20, 28 and 11 points this year. The two outliers were the byproduct of garbage points versus the Raiders (the Dolphins were down big, but that turned into a close game) and the miserable Falcons’ defense. Miami couldn’t even score more than 20 points against Jacksonville!

Given that the Dolphins are unlikely to score a high number of points – especially considering that they could be flat off the Buffalo game and have one eye on Thursday’s upcoming affair against the Ravens – the Texans won’t be asked to do much offensively to cover this spread. Thus, I like Houston regardless of who the quarterback is. I really wanted the +7, but the sharps had my exact thought process, betting this number down to +6.5. There’s no need to rush anymore, unfortunately, so I’ll just wait on the Taylor news like everyone else.



THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s been announced that Tyrod Taylor will play. With that in mind, I love the Texans. I think they could win outright. I’m going to bet five units on the +6 -117 at Bookmaker – six is a key number – before the spread falls further, and I’m going to wager a half unit on the moneyline.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ugh. There are some +6 -115s available (Bovada). I thought this line would drop, so that’s why I locked it in. I’m not sure why the sharps aren’t jumping on this, but I love Houston. This is a major step down in competition for the Texans, who have battled nothing but teams .500 or better since clobbering the Jaguars in Week 1.

FOR-FUN PARLAY: This is a for-fun $50 parlay, which includes some big moneyline favorites and some of my top picks with points through all the key numbers. I’m going with the Texans +7.5, Cowboys moneyline, Vikings +7.5, Bills moneyline, Falcons +7.5, Packers +7.5 and Rams moneyline.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Well, I’m glad I locked this in earlier in the week! Tua Tagovailoa is out, so Jacoby Brissett will start. This has caused the spread to drop to +4. I still like Houston at that number. I’m a fan of betting good teams using their backup quarterbacks, but the Dolphins are obviously not a good team. The sharps are on the Texans.

Denver Broncos (4-4) at Dallas Cowboys (6-1)
Line: Cowboys by 10. Total: 49.5.
Sunday, Nov. 7, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 25-14 so far this year. As you can tell, the sportsbooks have taken a beating.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Rams -14.5

Bengals -11.5

Bills -14.5

Buccaneers -4.5

Browns -3.5

The teams were 2-3, but the sportsbooks got middled in the Rams-Texans and Bills-Dolphins game, so it wasn’t all positive.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Packers -1

Bills -14.5

Raiders -3

Patriots -3.5

Cardinals -2.5

Cowboys -10

Chargers -2.5

Rams -7.5

Once again, mostly road favorites. I’d chide the public for not learning their lesson, but they’ve won with these all year.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Cooper Rush did a great job of holding down the fort last week, for the most part, but he won’t have to do so again because the Cowboys announced that Dak Prescott will be “full go” in practice this week. This is not a surprise, given that Prescott looked good in pre-game warmups this past Sunday night.

The Broncos’ diminished defense doesn’t stand a chance against Dallas. Bradley Chubb was already out, and now the Broncos won’t have Ambassador Von Miller, who was traded to the Rams on Monday. With Miller gone and Chubb sidelined, the Broncos won’t be able to muster any sort of pass rush, giving Prescott all the time he needs to connect with his dynamic weapons.

Outside linebacker isn’t the only cluster of injuries Denver has. The team is also missing its top two inside linebackers. The Broncos have had issues defending the middle of the field, and I don’t think they’ll have much success stopping Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard.

DENVER OFFENSE: Despite the Broncos getting back Jerry Jeudy from injury last week, they still scored just 17 points against a disappointing Redskins defense that has some major secondary issues. This was an underwhelming result, especially considering that some of Denver’s production came on short fields following blocked field goals.

I never thought I’d say this at the beginning of the year, but the Cowboys have a better defense than the Redskins. Their pass rush is excellent, and their secondary has improved greatly. They’ll be able to rattle Teddy Bridgewater, forcing him into some mistakes.

The weakness of the Dallas defense is its run-stopping ability, which makes the Vikings’ decision to give Dalvin Cook so few carries rather puzzling. Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams could have some gains in this contest, but the Broncos could be forced out of the run if the Cowboys jump on them with a big lead early in the afternoon.

RECAP: I would have faded the Cowboys in this spot in prior years. Dallas has perennially been overrated as “America’s team.” It has possessed great offensive players, but the defense always allowed the underdog to keep within striking distance and cover the spread.

Things have changed this year. With a greatly improved defense, the Cowboys are no longer overrated. They’re built to cover spreads like this, and I think they’ll do so against the injury-ravaged Broncos. Denver is simply missing too many defensive players to keep up with the Cowboys.

Unfortunately, we lost our line value. This spread opened -7.5 and was sitting at -8.5 or -9 for most of Monday. It’s now -10. The sharps are responsible for this, so I won’t bet the Cowboys as highly as I would have to begin the week, but I still plan on wagering on this side, even at -10.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: After thinking about it, I’m not going to bet this game. There’s a chance Dak Prescott won’t be 100 percent, and one thing I hate doing is betting on injured quarterbacks.

SATURDAY NOTES: Dak Prescott was LFF in practice this week. The fact that Prescott put in two full practices makes me more optimistic about his chances of being 100 percent. I may end up betting two units on Dallas after all. That said, the Cowboys have some injury question marks we’ll need answers to come Sunday morning. Plus, after doing some thinking, this could be a potential letdown spot after a win as an underdog on national TV.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Broncos will be down two additional players on top of those they are already missing: Mike Purcell and Malik Reed. This means they are down six starters and one top backup. The Cowboys will have CeeDee Lamb available, so they’re almost at full strength. I’m going to give Dallas a shot for two units. The best line is -10 -104 at Bookmaker. No sharp action to report.

Minnesota Vikings (3-4) at Baltimore Ravens (5-2)
Line: Ravens by 6. Total: 50.5.
Sunday, Nov. 7, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got a bit this week:

Last week, I posted this:



I then wrote: “Imagine being so terrible at your job that you get things wrong all the time. Oh, wait. Oops!”

I got a reply for that:



Life must be so depressing to have a brain so small that you can’t comprehend jokes made in self-deprication.

Here’s some stuff about my failed Pick of the Month:



Broken Clock sounds like he would be a good hire for the site.

Here’s a multi-post exchange I had someone regarding the minor illness:



Doctors > nurses. Sorry, that’s just how we roll in the medical community.

Here are two people who are quite literally insane:



Maybe insane is the wrong word. Brainwashed, perhaps. It’s crazy how cult-like behavior this is. The media has done an amazing job of making people believe certain things. It’s turned so many people into shills for the government and big pharma.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Lamar Jackson lucked out in his return from his bye week. He won’t have to see Danielle Hunter’s pass rush this Sunday, as Hunter suffered an injury against the Cowboys. This is important for this matchup, given that Baltimore’s offensive line has been a liability this year because of some injuries, particularly to left tackle Ronnie Stanley.

Avoiding a great pass-rushing presence will allow Jackson to connect with Marquise Brown, Sammy Watkins and Rashod Bateman more often. The Vikings have a pedestrian secondary, as evidenced Sunday night when they were constantly torched by Cooper Rush on third downs in the second half. If Rush could have success against a Hunter-less Minnesota defense, imagine what Jackson will do.

That said, I wouldn’t expect a big performance from Mark Andrews or the running backs. The Vikings tend to play well against tight ends, and they’re also better at stopping the run than the pass. This would’ve been a greater deal for the Ravens in previous years, but Jackson has evolved as a passer this season.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Kirk Cousins had a terrific start to the Sunday night affair, but then barely did anything offensively. He struggled for most of the night, especially in the 2-minute drill. Granted, the matchup was difficult, but Cousins was rather lackluster.

It should be noted that Dallas played Cousins very intelligently. The Cowboys didn’t blitz Cousins at all, though they didn’t really need to because their front four did a great job of harassing him. Not blitzing Cousins was key because Cousins is typically terrific against the blitz. With that in mind, that doesn’t bode well for Baltimore in this matchup because the Ravens blitz more than any other team in the NFL.

I like Cousins to bounce back from his dreadful Sunday night affair. This may seem like a difficult matchup for him on paper to most casual bettors and the media, especially with Dalvin Cook running against a tough ground defense, but Cousins will perform much better than most expect.

RECAP: There’s some conflict regarding my picking decision. I ordinarily love great coaching staffs coming off byes. John Harbaugh is excellent with extra time to prepare. He’s 9-5 against the spread off a bye. Furthermore, the Ravens were embarrassed in their previous game. I like betting on good teams rebounding from humiliating defeats.

However, the Ravens have to play on Thursday night, so they may not be fully focused for this contest. Granted, it’s just against the Dolphins, but Miami is at least an AFC opponent. This is a non-conference game. Furthermore, I discussed why I like the Vikings; Cousins matches up so well against the Ravens because he’s great against the blitz.

As far as this spread is concerned, I expected it to be higher. I made this line -7, and so did the computer model. The advance spread was -6. This makes it seem like there’s value with the Ravens, but the sportsbooks are getting tons of Baltimore money. It seems as though they made the line so low in order to entice people to bet the Ravens. I’m not going to fall into that trap.

I’m not sure if I’m going to bet this game yet. I’ll have to think about it and decide if I’m OK with fading the Ravens in what is a usually favorable spot for them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread finally moved, going up to -6 on Wednesday afternoon. However, Patrick Mekari didn’t practice Wednesday, meaning the Ravens could be down multiple offensive linemen. I may end up betting the Vikings – I like them much more at +6 – but then again, Vikings center Garrett Bradbury just tested positive for a minor illness, so his absence would be huge.

SATURDAY NOTES: John Harbaugh is excellent off a bye, but really only 1-3 against the spread with Lamar Jackson. The Ravens will be missing two starting offensive linemen, so that’ll hurt them against a Minnesota front that generates good pressure (even without Danielle Hunter). The Ravens’ blitz defense doesn’t match up well against Kirk Cousins, and they tend to miss a lot of tackles. Justin Jefferson should have a good game as a result, allowing Minnesota to hang around and keep this game close, as Baltimore looks ahead to playing in four days.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s big injury news in this game, and that is Harrison Smith’s absence. This obviously hurts the Vikings, but there’s a big spread overreaction. This line has risen to -7 even though Minnesota has another talented safety (Xavier Woods), and Baltimore has its own injury problems. The Ravens will be down two offensive linemen, plus Brandon Williams, which will weaken their matchup against Dalvin Cook. I still really like the Vikings. The best line is +7 -110 at both FanuDuel and Bovada. No sharp action here.

New England Patriots (4-4) at Carolina Panthers (4-4)
Line: Patriots by 3.5. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Nov. 7, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s unclear who will start at quarterback for the Panthers, which would explain the line movement in this game. Sam Darnold suffered a concussion versus the Falcons, so it’s unclear if he’ll be able to take the field because he was likely seeing stars when his head hit the ground late in the afternoon. Seeing stars might be better than seeing ghosts, however, which is what Darnold once famously claimed in a matchup against Bill Belichick.

Given Darnold’s history against Belichick, perhaps it’s for the best if he sits. Phillip Walker isn’t much worse anyway. In fact, it could be argued that Walker is better. Both struggle as passers, but Walker is superior as a runner. Belichick doesn’t have much tape on the former XFL MVP, and he’d have to adjust for a scrambling quarterback. Belichick’s defense typically isn’t as great against mobile signal-callers.

While it’s unclear if Darnold will play, it sounds as though Christian McCaffrey will be available coming off injured reserve. This is key because Belichick thrives at locking down one aspect of an opposing offense. I believe that’ll be D.J. Moore, as the Patriots have struggled against receiving backs this year.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Mac Jones has enjoyed an excellent rookie campaign, but he faltered a bit against the Chargers. Casual observers and the media may not have taken notice because the Patriots prevailed, but Jones was not accurate at all despite the victory. He missed numerous routine throws and likely would’ve cost his team the victory had Justin Herbert not imploded.

Jones has another difficult matchup this week. The Panthers possess a tremendous pass rush that will harass Jones when he doesn’t release the ball quickly. Furthermore, Stephon Gilmore’s presence has enhanced Carolina’s secondary. Gilmore didn’t even play all of the snaps last week, so he should see more action this Sunday against his former team.

The Patriots, however, will have some success on this side of the ball. While the Panthers excel against the pass, they’re not nearly as good versus ground games. This allowed them to beat the Falcons and their lackluster rushing attack last week. The Patriots will be able to establish Damien Harris, much like they did versus the Chargers in Week 8.

RECAP: There’s definitely some FOMO going on here regarding the Patriots. The advance spread was -2.5, and this line opened -3 following the Week 8 games. Tons of bets are coming in on the visitor, bringing this spread up to -4. It’s even -4 -115 at Bovada right now!

I’m loving this because I like the Panthers a lot this week. In addition to getting some great line value with them (my personal spread is -1.5, while the computer model has it at -3) and being able to fade all of this public action, we have one of my favorite dynamics, which is betting on good teams with their backup quarterback.

Now, some of you might be wondering if I’m crazy by calling the Panthers a good team. I believe that they are. They’re a good team with a crappy quarterback. Think about what their record would be if they had just average quarterbacking this year. They would’ve beaten the Eagles, Vikings and Giants (the Minnesota game went to overtime.) They would be 7-1 right now, with their only loss being at Dallas. The Panthers have a strong pass rush, talent in the secondary and a couple of terrific skill players. They’re a good team.

Good teams usually play harder with their backup quarterback, and I believe the Panthers will do so with Walker. As mentioned earlier, Belichick defenses are typically worse against scrambling quarterbacks, so I think the market is on the wrong side in this game, opting to bet a New England squad that has no victories by more than three points against non-Jets teams this year. I love the Panthers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps brought this spread down to +3.5. I thought this might be because of Christian McCaffrey or Sam Darnold news, but I’ve found nothing substantial.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are still some major question marks at the moment, as both Christian McCaffrey and Sam Darnold are question marks for this game. I’ll have another update shortly.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Good news: Christian McCaffrey will play. Bad news: Sam Darnold will as well. I was really hoping we’d get Phillip Walker, who would come with some bonus spread points. Instead, it’s Darnold, which has caused the line to drop from +4 to +3.5. I don’t know if there’s a half-point difference between Darnold and Walker, so we suddenly aren’t getting great value. I still like the Panthers a bit at +3.5, but not nearly as much.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some major sharp action coming in on the Panthers. This might be because Sam Darnold is starting. I’m actually not a fan of this, but I like Carolina a little bit. This line has fallen to +3 in most sportsbooks, but FanDuel still has +3.5 -115 available.

Buffalo Bills (5-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6)
Line: Bills by 14.5. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Nov. 7, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: How do the Bills not score in the high 30s at the very least in this matchup? Perhaps the Jaguars can kidnap Josh Allen before the game or hold his unborn children hostage, much like opposing teams used to do with Jake Delhomme’s son back in the day. Those were good times for everyone except for Delhomme.

The Jaguars couldn’t even stop Geno Smith this past week. Think about that for a second. Smith, who couldn’t complete basic passes against the Saints six days earlier, was torching Jacksonville with deep passes. Allen should be able to do the same. The Jaguars’ inept defense just doesn’t have the personnel to cover any of Allen’s weapons or put pressure on the Buffalo signal-caller.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I don’t know what was more pathetic: Smith torching the Jaguar defense last week, or the Jacksonville “scoring” unit not being able to put up any points until the final offensive drive of the game. The Jaguars made multiple trips into Seattle territory, but something always went wrong once they crossed midfield, whether it was a drop, a miscommunication or a sack.

The Bills have an even better defense than the Seahawks. Their pass rush will overwhelm Trevor Lawrence. I still expect Lawrence to make some great throws, but he’ll be guilty of some rookie mistakes as well, especially against a terrific defensive-minded coach like Sean McDermott.

Lawrence should at least have James Robinson available this week. Robinson left early against the Seahawks with an injury, so he’ll give some hope to the Jaguars.

RECAP: There’s not much hope, however, as I fully expect the Bills to cover this high spread. Lawrence is at a huge disadvantage in this game; not just because of the personnel disparity, but because McDermott will have a great game plan prepared for him. Lawrence has struggled against the likes of Lovie Smith and Vic Fangio this year. McDermott will be the next great defensive-minded coach to confuse him.

That said, I wouldn’t go crazy with this game because there’s so much public action on the Bills. I believe they’re the right side, but the sportsbooks have lost so much money this year that something shady could happen at the end of this contest. With the spread above two touchdowns, I don’t think it’s insane to think that this margin could magically fall on 14.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I expect this number to rise as the week progresses because we’ve seen large favorites have the line move in their direction late in the week this year. I don’t see why this would be any different. I don’t anticipate any injury news, so I’m going to lock this in before there’s a line move.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread hasn’t risen yet, which is a bit surprising. Nevertheless, I bet two units on the Bills already. I still like that decision.

FINAL THOUGHTS: With James Robinson sidelined, I expected the Buffalo line to rise. That hasn’t happened. It’s still -14.5 across the board (-104 vig at Bookmaker). I already locked in this spread, but that didn’t end up mattering. No sharp action to report.

Cleveland Browns (4-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-3)
Line: Bengals by 2. Total: 47.
Sunday, Nov. 7, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I was planning on betting the Browns last week before it was announced that Baker Mayfield would start instead of Case Keenum. I don’t consider Keenum a better quarterback, but he was healthier. Plus, Cleveland wouldn’t play as hard with its starting quarterback under center once more. Mayfield, predictably, wasn’t quite himself. He missed four throws badly, including a would-be touchdown to Austin Hooper.

Mayfield improved as the afternoon progressed, but Jarvis Landry ended up costing the Browns the game with his fumble and two drops. However, there’s no guarantee that Mayfield will be fully healthy, and there’s once again some concern with his offensive line, as Jack Conklin left last week’s game with another injury. The Bengals have a strong pass rush and should be able to take advantage of this. Their improved secondary will limit the Cleveland receivers as well.

Stopping the run will be key for the Bengals. The last time they battled a potent ground attack, however, Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon combined for 133 rushing yards in the Week 5 loss. This is an easier matchup for Nick Chubb, who will get more work than he saw last week.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The other Ohio quarterback, Joe Burrow, was not at his best either last week. Burrow made some nice throws versus the Jets, but a costly interception he committed while up four points with four minutes remaining in regulation allowed the Jets to prevail.

There are no health issues with Burrow, however, so he has a better chance of performing on a higher level than Mayfield. Burrow also has the easier matchup in regard to the opposing secondary. The Browns have some health issues there, and that’ll continue to be the case if Denzel Ward misses another game. Ward’s absence in a matchup against Ja’Marr Chase is huge, especially considering that the Bengals have so many other threats.

One threat, Joe Mixon, doesn’t project to have a good performance versus a tough run defense. That’s OK, however, as Cincinnati’s aerial assault will more than make up for it. This includes C.J. Uzomah, who has another favorable matchup.

RECAP: I was hoping to bet both teams this week before I looked at the schedule. Both are good teams coming off defeats, so there was bound to be positive motivational angles for both of them.

Unfortunately, they’re matched up against each other. I don’t have a strong lean on this game, but I’m going to side with the Bengals because they’re the healthier team. The Browns could be missing some key players, and Mayfield still may not be 100 percent.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Browns had a number of players miss Wednesday’s practice, including Jack Conklin, Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. Beckham is all but gone; it’ll be a surprise if he plays for Cleveland again. This is actually a good thing, as Mayfield has performed better without Beckham, albeit on an easy schedule.

SATURDAY NOTES: Baker Mayfield practiced fully all week, so that’s a good sign for the Browns. Unfortunately for Cleveland, Jack Conklin is sidelined, which will hurt for obvious reasons. I have no idea what to make of this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t have much to say about this game aside from the sharps betting the Browns. I don’t know what to make of it, and this line is +2 across the board.

Las Vegas Raiders (5-2) at New York Giants (2-6)
Line: Raiders by 3. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Nov. 7, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: I can’t believe how great Derek Carr looked against the Eagles prior to the bye. Barely any of his passes hit the ground. Offensive coordinator Greg Olson, completely running the show on this side of the ball with Jon Gruden gone, has done a superb job. The man who once took Josh Freeman to a Pro Bowl and Blake Bortles to a 4,428-yard passing performance, is doing some of his best work.

The Giants will serve as a tougher matchup for Carr than the Eagles. They have some excellent talent in their secondary to limit Carr’s weapons. They clamped down on Travis Kelce last week, so Darren Waller isn’t guaranteed to have a great performance in his return from injury. There’s also the Raider offensive line, which must eventually be a liability, due to the lack of talent up front.

This could be more of a Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake game, however. The Giants have been weak to the run since losing Blake Martinez, even allowing Derrick Gore to look like Jim Brown on Monday night.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Speaking of skill players returning from injury, it’s unclear who will play for the Giants in this game. Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard were back in the lineup Monday night, but they both got hurt again during the course of the contest. Then, there’s Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay. It seemed as though both were close to suiting up against the Chiefs, so perhaps they’ll be available this Sunday.

Daniel Jones will need all the help he can get because he’ll be staring down a vicious pass rush behind his poor offensive line. Jones didn’t have to worry about pressure versus the defensively inept Chiefs, but the Raiders can certainly bring the heat with Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue. They can also defend well on the back end, as cornerbacks Casey Hayward and Nate Hobbs have performed on a high level this year.

The Raiders’ defensive weakness is the linebacking corps. Barkley’s presence will be important for that reason. Devontae Booker will have some success if he’s forced to start another game, but Barkley could really exploit this liability.

RECAP: There’s some betting mania with the Raiders this week. The public loves this road favorite because the last time they saw the Raiders, they were destroying both the Eagles and Broncos in consecutive games.

Tell me, what’s so impressive about clobbering the Eagles and Broncos? Both are sub-par opponents. Before this two-game stretch, the Raiders lost to the Bears and Chargers by double digits, and they had to go to overtime to put away the Dolphins. Do they really deserve to be favored by three on the road in this matchup, esepcially when considering that they could be flat with a battle against the Chiefs looming next week? I don’t think so. I made this line Las Vegas -2, which means we’re getting the key number of three if my spread is correct.

Meanwhile, the Giants blew out the Panthers and took the Chiefs to the brink on Monday night. They have a solid defense, and assuming they get some skill players back on offense, they’ll be able to score enough points to keep up with the Raiders.

I’m definitely going to be on the Giants. The unit count will depend on who is available to play.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Giants played on Monday, so it’s too early to tell if some of their skill-position players return. Also, they had some positive tests and then negative tests, so it’s unclear who will be playing this Sunday. The Raiders, meanwhile, lost Henry Ruggs. This could serve as a distraction on top of the possible look-ahead to the Chiefs next week.

SATURDAY NOTES: Saquon Barkley is out, but it sounds like Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney will play. With that in mind, this spread is too high, as it would translate to Las Vegas -7ish if the site were flipped.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The pros are betting the Giants heavily, dropping this spread to +2.5 in some sharp sportsbooks. Luckily, you can still get +3 -115 at Bovada and FanDuel. I’m going to bet two units on New York.

Atlanta Falcons (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (5-2)
Line: Saints by 7. Total: 43.
Sunday, Nov. 7, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: Everyone in the United States over the age of six knows why we celebrate the Fourth of July, right? You’d think so, but you would be incredibly wrong:



My favorite imbecile is the one who said the United States got its independence from California. Given how much California sucks, that actually doesn’t sound quite bad!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Jameis Winston suffered a season-ending ACL tear last week in what appeared to be a great revenge victory for him. It’s sad for Winston that he didn’t get to beat his former team, but his current squad still experienced a victory, thanks to some Trevor Siemian heroics. It’s unclear if Siemian will start in this contest, as Taysom Hill may return from injury this week.

Whether it’s Siemian or Hill, the Saints’ quarterback will find that they’ll be playing in a very favorable matchup. The Falcons are horrific against the pass. They can’t generate any pressure on the quarterback, and they can’t cover at all. That said, the Saints’ aerial attack isn’t explosive, so despite the soft opponent, the Saints shouldn’t be expected to score too many points.

Of course, it doesn’t help that the best feature of the Saints’ offense, Alvin Kamara, has a tougher battle. The Falcons are much stronger versus the run compared to the pass, so they should be able to contain Kamara on the ground. Kamara, of course, will do some damage as a receiver out of the backfield.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Winston wasn’t the only quarterback who suffered an injury last week. A player stepped on Matt Ryan’s non-throwing hand in the second quarter of the Carolina loss. Ryan was never really the same after that, though he was in a tough matchup against the Panthers.

The Saints have a stout pass defense as well, so Ryan won’t be at his best in this contest. It would help if he had Calvin Ridley at his disposal, but the talented receiver announced that he is stepping away from football for the time being. Thus, Ryan’s top threats, besides Kyle Pitts, will be Cordarrelle Patterson, Russell Gage and Tajae Sharpe.

It’s difficult to be bullish about the Falcons’ chances of scoring too many points in this contest, especially when considering the Saints’ advantage in the trenches. The Falcons don’t block very well, so New Orleans will be able to put lots of pressure on Ryan.

RECAP: I like to bet good teams playing their backup, but I’m not sure if Hill qualifies. He almost won the starting job in the preseason, so I don’t think the rest of the players would think they had to play harder for him. Conversely, Siemian would qualify as such, so I’d have more interest in betting the Saints if Siemian is announced as the starter, assuming the spread drops in response.

If Hill is the starter, I like the Falcons a lot at +6. Coming off a big win, the Saints figure to be flat. Also, this spread is too high, considering that the Saints don’t have an explosive offense. I know thy scored 36 points against the Buccaneers, but 17 points came off turnovers. New Orleans’ offense won’t be able to put Atlanta away, which will allow Ryan to hang around and eventually get the back-door cover. Six is a key number, so the Falcons have a much better chance of covering at that figure than if the line were +5.5 or lower.

We’ll see who the starting quarterback is for the Saints. I may change my pick, or I may even add some units to the Falcons depending on what transpires. Check back later, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Taysom Hill was limited in Wednesday’s practice, so it’s still too early to say if he’ll return from his concussion. There’s some sharp money coming in on the Falcons right now, which is not a surprise.

SATURDAY NOTES: Taysom Hill will play, but Trevor Siemian will start. I’ve said in the past that I’m a big fan of betting good teams with their backup quarterbacks. However, there is one caveat: The spread must be overadjusted. It’s not in this case. The Saints were -7.5 versus the Giants earlier this year, and they’re now -6 versus a similar-caliber opponent. This means that the sportsbooks are saying that Jameis Winston is 1.5 points better than Siemian, which might be true. If this line were -4, we’d be talking, but at -6, the Saints are a bad play because their stagnant offense will have trouble covering that high number. I really like the Falcons in this spot. They always play close games, and they know the Saints well. New Orleans is coming off a very emotional win and could be flat.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was some sharp action coming in on the Saints on Sunday morning, but I still really like the Falcons. This line is +6.5 in most sportsbooks, but you can get +7 -117 at Bookmaker. I would pay up for the seven at that price.