Detroit Lions (4-7) at Chicago Bears (5-6) Line: Bears by 3. Total: 44.5. Sunday, Dec. 6, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Bears.
WEEK 12 RECAP: What a week! With Steelers-Ravens pending, I was 10-5 (+$2,620) in Week 12. It was a great rebound from the ugly Weeks 9 and 11, and the only bet that lost was Dallas -2.5 on Thanksgiving. However, I think the Cowboys may have won had Zack Martin not gotten injured. Meanwhile, we got some good luck on Sunday with the Buccaneers getting the back-door cover, but that only negates what happened in the Chargers-Jets game the week before.
My Week 13 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.
By the way, if you want to support this site, check out my new book!
In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would've happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.
DETROIT OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford played better than I thought he would on Thanksgiving. I know he lost, and that he committed two turnovers, and that he got his coach and general manager fired, but Stafford moved the chains well in between the 20s on most drives. He did this with a thumb injury and no Kenny Golladay, D'Andre Swift or Danny Amendola at his disposal.
Golladay and Swift are expected back for this game, which will obviously help Stafford. He'll have extra time for his thumb to heal even further, so I expect him to play well in this matchup, despite going up against the Bears.
It'll help Stafford even further if Akiem Hicks is ruled out again. Chicago's defense is a much different unit without Hicks, who missed the fourth quarter of the loss to the Vikings, as well as the entire contest against the Packers. Hicks' absence would open up huge running lanes for Swift. He and T.J. Hockenson should play well, as the Bears struggle to defend the middle of the field.
CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears have announced that Mitchell Trubisky will make another start. Trubisky was his usual, turnover-prone self against the Packers, but it's not like Chicago has a viable alternative. Nick Foles is hurt, while Tyler Bray is not an NFL-caliber quarterback. With Foles hurt, Trubisky gives the Bears the best chance to win, which is quite sad.
Trubisky at least has a nice matchup. The Lions don't have anyone to cover Allen Robinson, or any of the other Chicago receivers, for that matter. The Lions' secondary has been woeful this year, as has their pass rush without Trey Flowers. That last part is important because the Bears are down multiple offensive linemen and can't block well as a consequence.
The Lions are also atrocious against the run. David Montgomery played well Sunday night, and he figures to have a huge performance against the pitiful Lions.
RECAP: There's lots of action on the Lions, though it looks to be sharp money. My stance on this game will be determined by the injury report, as there are some major question marks. Hicks, Golladay, Swift are just some key players who may or may not play in this affair. It's also unknown if Stafford will be any healthier.
I'm going to side with what appears to be the sharp money for now, but I may change my mind later in the week once we have some clarity with all of these injuries.
Our Week 13 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There's bad news for both teams. The Lions haven't seen Kenny Golladay return to practice yet, and they also lost Desmond Trufant and Danny Shelton to injury report. The Bears, meanwhile, saw Akiem Hicks and Charles Leno miss practice once again. These are two teams I want to fade this week. Unfortunately, they're playing each other.
SATURDAY NOTES: The Lions have some major injury issues. They're not getting back Kenny Golladay, which means their offense will be limited, especially if Matthew Stafford's thumb isn't 100 percent. Jeff Okudah will be sidelined, so the Lions will be down their top two cornerbacks against a solid receiving corps. Detroit will also be missing two starting defensive linemen - Danny Shelton, Da'Shawn Hand - as well as Trey Flowers, meaning it won't be able to take advantage of Chicago's offensive line injuries. Speaking of the Bears, it sounds like Akiem Hicks will return. Hicks, according to reports, is hopeful that he will play. He was limited Thursday and Friday. Khalil Mack and Allen Robinson have been added to the injury report as well, however, but I still want to switch this pick to Chicago.
FINAL THOUGHTS: All of the questionable Bears - Akiem Hicks, Khalil Mack, Allen Robinson, Mad-Eye Mooney - are all active, while the Lions will be missing many key players, as detailed above. I like the Bears, and so do the sharps, but I'm a bit worried about a very spirited performance by Detroit because of the Matt Patricia firing. It's also very risky to bet Mitchell Trubisky. I'm on the Bears, but I won't bet them.
The Motivation. Edge: Lions.
The Lions will be extra motivated to play without Matt Patricia, whom they hated.
The Spread. Edge: None.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -2.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: No Line (Both QBs).
Computer Model: Bears -4.
DVOA Spread: .
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Percentage of money on Chicago: 55% (5,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
History: Bears have won the last 5 meetings.
Lions are 21-8 ATS on the road after a home loss of 10+.
Matthew Stafford is 15-25 ATS in December and January.
Cincinnati Bengals (2-8-1) at Miami Dolphins (7-4) Line: Dolphins by 10. Total: 43. Sunday, Dec. 6, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.
My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!
CINCINNATI OFFENSE: This game would have been much more interesting had Joe Burrow not gotten injured. Instead, Burrow is out for the year - and maybe even longer, unfortunately - which means Brandon Allen will continue to start for Cincinnati. Allen was terrible against the Giants, taking sacks and throwing dumb passes that should have been intercepted. The Giants came away with just one Allen pick last week, but they easily could've snatched four.
The Dolphins, unlike the Giants, will capitalize on Allen's blunders. They've been accumulating tons of turnovers this year, as they have some great personnel coached brilliantly by Brian Flores. The Cincinnati receivers won't get open against the stellar Dolphin corners, which will only increase Allen's likelihood of throwing the ball to the other team.
If the Dolphins have a weakness, it's their ability to stop the run, though Christian Wilkins' return to the lineup last week helped in that regard. The Bengals can't rush effectively because Joe Mixon is out, so that'll only benefit Miami.
MIAMI OFFENSE: It's not yet clear if Tua Tagovailoa will start in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick. I've been saying it since the decision was made - I think it was a mistake to go to Tagovailoa because he's barely a year removed from his brutal injury. Plus, he's a rookie, so he could've benefited from sitting. It worked for Patrick Mahomes, so why did Tagovailoa need to be rushed into action, especially when he's not fully healthy?
Either quarterback matches up well against the Bengals, however. Cincinnati has some major liabilities on this side of the ball. It really struggles to defend the middle of the field, so Mike Gesicki figures to have a big game. DeVante Parker will also play well if Fitzpatrick is throwing to him.
The Bengals also struggle to stop the run, as evidenced by their inability to contain Wayne Gallman last week. They won't have much success stopping Miami's runner, whether that's Myles Gaskin or Salmon Head.
RECAP: This is an obvious look-ahead game for the Dolphins, given that they have to battle the Chiefs and Patriots after this affair. They could easily take the Bengals lightly and walk away with a seven-point victory.
However, I'm not quite sure the Dolphins will overlook the Bengals because they were just guilty of being flat versus Denver. Flores is an excellent coach, so he may use that result to warn his players not to take Cincinnati for granted.
Either way, I'm not going to bet this game. There's just no value with the Dolphins, though I will side with them for office pool purposes.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There was a report citing that Tua Tagovailoa could start this game. Has there ever been an instance where a starting quarterback being available lowers the spread? I'm still bullish on Tagovailoa's long-term outlook, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is the superior option this year.
SATURDAY NOTES: The Bengals will be missing starting guard Alex Redmond, so I was hoping I could fade them for missing two blockers. However, it sounds like Xavier Su'a-Filo might be back, meaning the Bengals will be down one lineman. Either way, I'm sticking with the Dolphins, but I'm hesitant to bet such a high number.
FINAL THOUGHTS: It's a major bummer that Tua Tagovailoa will start, just for fantasy purposes. I still would pick the Dolphins, but they have so much less upside. Apparently, the sharps agree, as they've bet Cincinnati on Sunday morning. This spread is now -10 -113 at Bookmaker.
The Motivation. Edge: Bengals.
The Dolphins battle the Chiefs and Patriots after this game.
Indianapolis Colts (7-4) at Houston Texans (4-7) Line: Colts by 3. Total: 50.5. Sunday, Dec. 6, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: None.
VEGAS UPDATE: I'll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 44-40-2 last season and 21-27 heading into Week 12.
Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:
The books took a big loss because of what happened in the Saints game. However, they won back their money when the big, crappy road favorites failed to cover. The highest-bet games were 2-2 last week, with the house taking another huge loss on Monday night because the game middled.
Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:
There's so much money coming in on the Chiefs, and I can't blame the public because of how bad Drew Lock has been.
INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: I was very bullish on the Colts until last week, as disaster struck in the Green Bay game. The Colts prevailed over the Packers, but it was a very Pyrrhic victory. Philip Rivers hurt his toe, while several players, including Ryan Kelly and DeForest Buckner, suffered injuries/minor illnesses and had to miss the Tennessee game as a result. The short-handed Colts couldn't compete with the Titans.
Things only got worse for the Colts in the Tennessee affair, as Pro Bowl left tackle Anthony Castonzo is now week-to-week with MCL damage. This is a brutal loss, especially in this matchup because the Colts will have to deal with Whitney Mercilus and J.J. Watt. Philip Rivers is still great when receiving appropriate protection, but he'll likely be under siege in this contest, which is something that occurred last week versus the Titans and their lackluster pass rush.
The Colts' run blocking will also be worse, but they could still have success on the ground. The Texans have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL, so Indianapolis' stable of backs could still have success, even if missing multiple blockers in front of them.
HOUSTON OFFENSE: One aspect of the Houston defense I didn't mention in that previous segment was that Bradley Roby has been suspended for the rest of the year. This would be a big deal against most teams, but Rivers targets his receivers infrequently. The important suspension for Houston in this matchup, however, is to Will Fuller. Already missing DeAndre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson will have to adapt to life without Fuller.
Watson needed Fuller on the field in this game so that Xavier Rhodes could cover him and allow Brandin Cooks to see easier coverage. Rhodes will now smother Cooks, leaving me to wonder where Watson will throw. Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills are not available, so the best options will be Keke Coutee, Duke Johnson or one of the tight ends. Not good!
Speaking of Johnson, the Texans won't have much success running the ball against the Colts. They haven't even been able to take advantage of poor rush defenses with Johnson, so moving the chains on the ground against the Colts will be difficult, provided Buckner is able to return from his minor illness.
RECAP: I was hoping for some better value with the Colts. They suffered an ugly loss last week, while the Texans won on Thanksgiving. Indianapolis was -3.5 on the advance line, so I wanted to see a -1 or pick 'em spread. Instead, the number fell just half a point.
That said, it's still a significant move because Indianapolis winning by exactly three is a very likely result, so getting that number on a Colts bet is huge. And I just might be counting on that because Indianapolis seems to be the play. The stipulation is the injury report. If the Colts can get back several of their injured players from last week, I'll definitely like them against a Houston squad that has gotten significantly worse in the wake of the Roby and Fuller suspensions. If, however, the Colts continue to miss lots of their key players, I may ultimately side with Houston.
I can't wait to see how the injury report looks. This might end up being a big play on the Colts, so check back later in the week or follow me @walterfootball for updates.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Anthony Castonzo missed practice Wednesday, but Ryan Kelly practiced fully. With Kelly and DeForest Buckner bound to return, the Colts seem more appealing. The sharps agree, as they've shot this line up to -3.5. With the Texans now much worse than they were on Thanksgiving, the Colts seem like the right side, even if you have to lay the hook.
SATURDAY NOTES: The Colts are getting back Ryan Kelly, DeForest Buckner and Denico Autry, though they'll be without Anthony Castonzo and Khari Willis. With Willis out, Indianapolis will be down its top two safeties, though the Texans won't be able to take full advantage of that with Will Fuller sidelined. Still, the Colts are healthier than they were last week, so I still think they're the play as long as you're getting -3 and not -3.5.
FINAL THOUGHTS: There's no noteworthy news from the inactives, but I think something very significant is the news about the severity of Philip Rivers' toe injury. He could struggle and fail to take advantage of Houston's horrible cornerbacks. I'm going to switch my pick to the Texans, but I'm not confident enough in Houston to bet them. The sharps bet the Texans at +3.5, but not +3.
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10) at Minnesota Vikings (5-6) Line: Vikings by 10. Total: 51.5. Sunday, Dec. 6, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: None.
HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got a bit this week:
I love getting hate before a game finishes, and I end up being right about it. Granted, the Buccaneers cover was lucky, but it just shows that if you're going to post hate, at least make sure that you don't look like an idiot later! I imagine Kyle is just angry because he criticized my call of GameStop when the stock price was $10.40. If I missed out on a 70-percent profit, I'd be pissed, too!
Here's another example of this:
Ouch! If this guy went nuts with shorting my picks, he could be living in a cardboard box right now!
Here's someone who is making fun of marginalized people:
Why is he being a dick and talking crap about people who have suffered brain damage? That's not a very nice thing to do. And when have I made myself out to be a victim? I hate victims. They suck!
This might be hate mail, but maybe not...
Am I Wally? If not, who is Wally? I don't understand! I'm just a poor guy with brain damage!
MINNESOTA OFFENSE: I've criticized Kirk Cousins often, but I have to give him credit for last week's win against the Panthers. Despite missing Adam Thielen, he ripped through Carolina's secondary in the fourth quarter, completing 11 consecutive passes for a stretch. He ultimately threw the game-winning touchdown to Chad Beebe, who had to redeem himself for an earlier muffed punt that easily could've given the Panthers the win had Teddy Bridgewater not missed D.J. Moore in the end zone.
The Vikings will likely have Thielen back, so Cousins will be unstoppable against a Jacksonville defense that has been missing its top three cornerbacks during the past couple of weeks. Sidney Jones could return, but he won't be enough to stop Thielen and Justin Jefferson. It won't help that Jacksonville's pedestrian pass rush will be missing top edge rusher Josh Allen, who was placed on injured reserve.
Of course, Cousins, Thielen and Jefferson may not even have to do very much. Dalvin Cook could easily take charge and trample all over the Jaguars' pathetic ground defense that just surrendered nearly 150 yards to Nick Chubb.
JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguar defense won't be able to stop the Vikings' offense, so it'll be up to the Jaguars' scoring unit to keep pace in this game. That wouldn't be possible if Minnesota had a fully healthy defense at its disposal, but the Vikings are missing six defensive starters. They couldn't even contain Andy Dalton a couple of weeks ago, so Mike Glennon will have a chance.
Glennon performed better than expected versus the Browns last week. He wasn't great by any means, but he played like a solid backup, which is a huge upgrade over what the Jaguars had with Jake Luton. If D.J. Chark can return from his rib injury, the Jaguars will have a great matchup edge with their receivers going up against a Minnesota secondary missing multiple cornerbacks. At the very least, this will give the Jaguars an easier chance of achieving a back-door cover.
The Jaguars will also have success moving the chains with their outstanding rookie running back. James Robinson has a nice matchup as well, as Minnesota's rush defense has faltered over the past couple of weeks.
RECAP: This game screams "back-door cover," doesn't it? Jacksonville's advantage with its receivers over an injury-ravaged Minnesota defense will give it a chance to stay within single digits at the very end. This won't be anything new for the Jaguars. Since Week 7, Jacksonville has lost just one game by more than 10 points, and that was to the Steelers. The Vikings obviously aren't nearly as good as Pittsburgh, so I like the Jaguars' chances of keeping this close toward the end.
In fact, I think there's a chance the Jaguars could have a lead at some point in the second half. The Vikings may not take this game seriously, given that they have to battle the Buccaneers, rival Bears and Saints after this matchup against a 1-10 non-conference foe. This won't be anything new for Mike Zimmer. I like Zimmer, but he hasn't done a good job of preparing his team as a large favorite. Since 2018, the Vikings are just 1-3-2 against the spread when laying nine or more points. They even lost outright to Buffalo as 16.5-point favorites in 2018. Last year, they nearly suffered a loss to Denver's third-string quarterback, Brandon Allen, as 10-point favorites.
I'm picking the Jaguars to cover, and I'm going to bet them if they get some important players back from injury, such as Chark and Sidney Jones.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both D.J. Chark and Sidney Jones were limited in Wednesday's practice, which is a positive sign for their return this week. I'm going to have a multi-unit play on Jacksonville if both can come back to play this game. That said, this spread rose to +10 on Thursday afternoon with a sharp push, so I wonder if we're going to get bad news on the Jaguars soon.
SATURDAY NOTES: The Jaguars are a mess. Granted, that's fairly obvious, given their 1-10 record, but this is more so the case than usual. D.J. Chark will return this week, but Jacksonville will be missing three cornerbacks once again, and it'll also be down its top two interior defensive linemen. I don't know how the Jaguars will put forth any resistance against Minnesota's offense. If the Vikings are focused despite their upcoming tough games, they'll win this easily. And given that they may have already had their look-ahead game in the loss to Dallas, I think there's a good chance they'll be more focused than I initially anticipated. Thus, I'm switching my pick.
FINAL THOUGHTS: D.J. Chark is active, but everyone else on the Jaguars is sidelined. Jacksonville could get a back-door cover, but the team is severely short-handed. Then again, the Vikings have injury woes as well. The sharps bet the Vikings earlier in the week when this spread was below -10, but they haven't touched Minnesota since this spread hit double digits.
The Motivation. Edge: Jaguars.
The Vikings have to play the Buccaneers, rival Bears and Saints after this game.
Las Vegas Raiders (6-5) at New York Jets (0-11) Line: Raiders by 7.5. Total: 47.5. Sunday, Dec. 6, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Raiders.
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LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Did you know that there are some people out there who believe NFL teams try their hardest every single week? It's true. Whenever I post that I think "Team X will be flat because they have to play Team Y next week," someone in the comments below will say, "Walt your and idiot. NFL players are profesionals and they will never look passed any1!"
If you have that thought process, and a brain transplant isn't possible, consider what happened to the Raiders as three-point favorites over the Falcons last week. They went toe-to-toe with the Chiefs the week before, yet were demolished, 43-6, against an inferior opponent missing its best player, Julio Jones. The Raiders went all out to win their "Super Bowl" versus the Chiefs, but lost, so they didn't have enough energy to compete the following week. They made countless mistakes to give the Falcons plenty of free points.
I believe the Raiders will be way more focused this week to redeem themselves from the embarrassing result in Atlanta. The Jets have some major defensive liabilities, as they're missing their top two cornerbacks and linebackers. This must be music to Derek Carr's ears, as he'll have plenty of success throwing to Darren Waller and his receivers. Carr also won't face much pressure from the Jets, especially if Trent Brown is finally able to return this week.
NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets were missing three offensive linemen last week, which would explain why they failed to do anything against the Dolphins. Of course, it didn't help that Adam Gase took control of play-calling duties, as adding more Gase to a game plan is always a recipe for disaster.
There's a decent chance the Jets will have at least one of Alex Lewis or George Fant back from injury, which will provide a big boost for their offense. If so, this will be the first time all year Sam Darnold will have a healthy offensive line and receiving corps at his disposal.
Given the possibility of a much healthier roster than usual, Darnold will have a chance to succeed against a Raider defense that certainly has some holes. At the very least, Darnold will be in position for a back-door cover.
RECAP: My decision regarding this game will be determined by the injury report. If the Jets will have their entire offensive line and receiving corps intact, I'll pick them to cover because this spread will be priced as if the Jets were banged up, since that has been the case most of the season. If, however, they're once again missing multiple offensive players, I will pick the Raiders to rebound, and I may even bet them, depending on how severe the injury report is.
As for now, I'm going to pencil in the Jets as the pick, but this could easily change later in the week.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was wondering if we'd see a healthier Jets offensive line this week, but both George Fant and Alex Lewis missed Wednesday's practice. Fant returned to Thursday's practice, but Lewis was still sidelined with a mysterious "non-injury." This line shot up from +7.5 to +9, so I wonder if we're going to hear some negative news on the Jets soon.
SATURDAY NOTES: The offensive portion of the Jets' injury report is very disappointing. George Fant and Chuma Edoga will return, so the Jets will be down just one offensive lineman (Alex Lewis), which is not enough to give a big edge to the Raiders. The Jets' defense is still in shambles, however, thanks to two starting cornerbacks and the two best linebackers being sidelined. The Raiders should score easily, but the Jets' offense nearly being 100 percent will invite a potential back-door cover. Still, I like the Raiders for a few units.
FINAL THOUGHTS: We had some bad information from the injury report. I expected Trent Brown to be active, but he's still on the exempt list, probably because he's out of shape. It sounds like he'll return next week, but it's still disappointing that he can't play. The Jets are not a team that can take great advantage of the Raiders missing two offensive linemen, but it makes me slightly less optimistic on Vegas. I'm going to drop this unit count to two, and part of that equation is that I'm paying -119 juice to bet this line down to -7, which you can do at Bookmaker. Be warned that the sharps are on the Jets. Yes, the Jets!
ATLANTA OFFENSE: It's quite amazing, and yet predictable how the Falcons' success this season has been tied to Julio Jones. In games that Jones has played fully, the Falcons are 3-3 straight up and 4-2 against the spread, and they'd be 5-1 in both categories if it weren't for Dallas' crazy comeback in Week 2 and the Todd Gurley mishap at the goal line against the Lions. Conversely, the Falcons are just 1-4 without Jones, as their only win without him came last week against the Raiders, who were sloppy and made tons of mistakes.
Despite accumulating 43 points against the Raiders, Atlanta's offense did very little. The scoring unit was more productive in the previous game, a 24-9 loss to the Saints, at least until Jones got hurt. The Falcons scored on an early possession, but stopped moving the chains once Jones injured his hamstring. It remains to be seen if Jones will be available for this game, but if he is, the Falcons will have a great chance of pulling the upset.
If not, the Falcons will once again have issues doing anything on this side of the ball. Matt Ryan will struggle once again, while his running game won't have any success against the Saints' stout ground defense.
NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Falcons will need to score some points to keep up with the Saints. We know New Orleans will have offensive success because it just experienced this against this very same opponent two weeks ago in what was Taysom Hill's first NFL start. Hill made some early mistakes, but improved his play as the afternoon progressed.
Hill didn't fare as well as a passer last week, but was battling a terrific Denver secondary. The Falcons don't have nearly as many talented players in their defensive backfield, which will give Hill more of an opportunity to connect with Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.
Hill will once again have success scrambling as well. The Falcons are better against the run than the pass, but they didn't seem to have an answer for Hill's scrambles two weeks ago, particularly in the red zone.
RECAP: I'm hoping Jones returns at full strength because I'd love to bet the Falcons. If Jones plays, we're getting tons of line value with Atlanta. It was just two weeks ago that the Saints were -4.5 at home versus Atlanta. Moving the line about four points - two points to neutral, two more to Atlanta - New Orleans should be listed as pick 'em or -1 against this opponent (because -0.5 can't exist.) New Orleans -1 is exactly what I made this spread, and the computer model spat out the same figure.
Getting +3 with the Falcons is huge because the most likely results of this game, provided Jones plays, are the Saints winning by three and the Falcons winning by three. If this is true, we get a win or a push at Atlanta +3.
Of course, this all hinges on Jones' status. If he's out again, I won't have any interest in betting the Falcons, and I may ultimately side with the Saints.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Julio Jones was limited in Wednesday's practice, which was good news until it was revealed that he missed Thursday's practice. He could still play, but it's obviously a bad sign that he's trending downward. I won't have any interest in betting Atlanta if Jones is sidelined.
SATURDAY NOTES: Julio Jones is questionable, and he said he's ready to go. That's good enough for me to bet the Falcons. The Saints have no business being favored on the road in this matchup in their current state. The Falcons will be better with Jones, while the Saints will have to cover up some major injuries of their own, including Terron Armstead, Marcus Davenport and Janoris Jenkins.
FINAL THOUGHTS: There's nothing surprising on the injury report. It's also not surprising that the sharps are betting a home dog. They're all over the Falcons, who are +2.5 in some sportsbooks. Luckily, there are some +3s still available. The best +3s are for -118 at Bookmaker and -120 at BetUS.
The Motivation. Edge: Falcons.
The Falcons will be out for revenge, while the Saints are well ahead of everyone in the division.
TENNESSEE OFFENSE: It's amazing that the Browns are 8-3, as they've barely snuck by the Bengals, Eagles and Jaguars in recent weeks. They've done this without Myles Garrett in the previous two contests, so that would at least explain the sluggish defensive performances.
Garrett will be back, which is huge news. He'll be needed to shore up a run defense that had trouble against Miles Sanders and James Robinson in the past two games. Derrick Henry is a different animal - quite literally, maybe - but Garrett's presence will help at least limit him somewhat.
However, the Browns have a major issue on this side of the ball, and that would be the status of the secondary. They once again won't have both starting cornerbacks, and they also lost some depth with a couple of other injuries in the secondary. The Titans don't have the most lethal passing attack, but Ryan Tannehill should be able to take advantage of this liability by airing out the ball to talented receivers A.J. Brown and Corey Davis.
CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Baker Mayfield will have to keep pace with the Titans because I don't see Cleveland's defense slowing down the Tennessee passing attack very much. Luckily for Mayfield, he seems to have a positive matchup here, as Tennessee lacks a viable pass rush, all while possessing some holes in the secondary as a result of injuries to Adoree Jackson and Kristian Fulton.
However, it remains to be seen if Mayfield can take full advantage of this. Mayfield missed several easy throws last week, including one touchdown. This figures to be a close game, so some errant passes could decide it.
Mayfield, of course, will have to lean on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to win this game for him. The Titans are better against the run than the pass, but they don't have an impenetrable ground defense, so Chubb and Hunt will have some success.
RECAP: I'm torn on this game. On one hand, this spread has risen to -6 from the advance line, which was -3.5. I don't believe the Titans are as good as their record says they are. Their lacking pass rush and pedestrian secondary should allow the Browns hang around and cover the spread, even if it's through the back door.
On the other hand, the sharps have aggressively taken this spread to -6, perhaps because of Cleveland's major secondary injuries. The Titans will be able to exploit that matchup rather easily. Also, even though the line has moved to -6, the computer model still thinks it's too low. The computer believes Tennessee -10 is the correct number!
This is one of the tougher games of the week to handicap, so I won't be betting it. I'm going to side with the sharps on the Titans, despite losing line value from earlier.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There are still many projected injuries on both sides, so I'd like to wait until the weekend to gain some clarity about the situation.
SATURDAY NOTES: The Browns are getting Myles Garrett back this week, which will make their pass rush especially potent if the Titans are missing two offensive linemen. This could be the case with Rodger Saffold questionable after failing to practice a single time during the week. Meanwhile, Jeffery Simmons might miss this game as well after failing to practice on two occasions, including Friday. If both are sidelined, I may switch back to the Browns on Sunday morning, but either way, I do not plan on betting this game.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Browns, dropping this line down from +6 to +4. I figured it was something we didn't know on the injury report, but I'm not seeing anything surprising on the inactives lists, so I'm not really sure why this line moved so much. I'm going to stick with the Titans at this reduced price, but I'm obviously not very optimistic about it.
Week 13 NFL Picks - Late Games
Rams at Cardinals, Giants at Seahawks, Eagles at Packers, Patriots at Chargers, Broncos at Chiefs, Redskins at Steelers, Cowboys at Ravens, Bills at 49ers
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2020): 1-0 (+$560)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2020): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2020): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2020): 1-0 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2020 plus 2020 props): +$4,735
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350) 2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965) 2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515) 2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0) 2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%) 2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%) 2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%) 2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%) 2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%) 2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%) 2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%) 2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%) 2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585) 2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105) 2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235) 2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880) 2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335) 2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445) 2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825) 2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885) 2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215) 2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780) 2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300) 2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845) 2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%) 2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%) 2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%) 2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%) 2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%) 2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110) 2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510) 2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260) 2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180) 2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715) 2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130) 2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890) 2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820) 2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475) 2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395) 2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670) 2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%) 2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%) 2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%) 2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%) 2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%) 2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420) 2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055) 2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330) 2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790) 2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260) 2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650) 2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970) 2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120) 2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465) 2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595) 2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735) 2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%) 2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%) 2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%) 2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%) 2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%) 2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%) 2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900) 2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860) 2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195) 2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5) 2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135) 2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30) 2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340) 2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0) 2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95) 2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640) 2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225) 2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035 2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775 2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865 2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200 2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590 2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685 2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245 2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855 2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275 2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510 2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495 2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%) 2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400) 2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720) 2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640) 2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810) 2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870) 2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560) 2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900) 2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350) 2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100) 2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780) 2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040) 2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640) 2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,995-2,761-179, 52.0% (+$19,655) Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 957-859-49 (52.7%) Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 452-396-23 (53.3%) Career Over-Under: 2,463-2,416-66 (50.5%) Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%) Career NFL Picks of the Month: 45-29-1 (60.8%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.