NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2020

Miami Dolphins (6-3) at Denver Broncos (3-6)
Line: Dolphins by 4. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Nov. 22, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

Video of the Week: I don’t know why I found this funny, but I was cracking up pretty hard (thanks, Ed A.):



My only criticism is that this guy should have had some wet farts mixed in tht made it sound like he s**t his pants.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Tua Tagovailoa has improved tremendously since his ugly debut against the Rams. It helps that he has battled softer defenses since then, of course, but it’s still nice to see because some were writing him off after one game.

This matchup might prove to be a challenge, based on the injury report. Tagovailoa will be battling a great defensive-minded coach in Vic Fangio, and Denver’s secondary is packed with talent now that A.J. Bouye and Bryce Callahan are healthy again. The Broncos have the personnel to limit DeVante Parker and Jakeem Grant, which is something the injury-ravaged Cardinals and Chargers could not do.

However, the Broncos have been missing their entire defensive line the past two weeks. They haven’t been able to stop the run as a consequence. If that continues to be the case, upstart back Salvon Ahmed will have another nice game, making things easier for Tagovailoa.

DENVER OFFENSE: Naturally, Tagovailoa won’t have nearly as much trouble as Brett Rypien if the young quarterback needs to make the start. It’s unclear if Drew Lock will play after suffering a rib injury in an ugly performance against the Raiders. That would explain why there’s no line on this game as of Tuesday afternoon.

Either way, the Broncos are going to have trouble moving the chains against a stellar Miami defense. If it’s Rypien, Brian Flores will give the inexperienced quarterback some confusing looks that will translate into some turnovers. If it’s Lock, the starter will continue to drift back in the pocket needlessly as he makes terrible passes. Lock will be even worse than usual because of his ribs.

The Broncos will attempt to establish the run, but I doubt they’ll have much success doing so. The Dolphins have been better against the rush lately, and they’ll be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage than usual because of Denver’s quarterbacking problem.

RECAP: There’s no spread posted, but it’s hard to imagine backing the miserable Broncos. I’ve been on the Dolphins every week since the beginning of October, and I’m not stopping now.

Check back later for an exact unit count, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s not yet clear if Drew Lock will play, but it’s sounding like that’s going to happen. I’ll be more than happy to fade an injured quarterback like him against a stellar Miami defense.

SATURDAY NOTES: Drew Lock is questionable after two limited practices. There’s no doubt that he’s not going to be 100 percent if he plays. That’s one problem the Dolphins have. The other is that Denver will be missing its entire defensive line again. The Dolphins, who should be -8 per the computer model and DVOA, seem like a good play this week. I’m locking this in now before the spread rises even further.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: If you haven’t locked this pick in, you can now get -4 -105 at Bovada. The sharps bet the Dolphins at -3.5, but not at -4 yet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Kyle Van Noy is active, which is huge. I’m going to put a fifth unit on the Dolphins. The -4 -105 I saw earlier is gone, but any ordinary -4 is fine.

New York Jets (0-9) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-7)
Line: Chargers by 9.5. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Nov. 22, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers would have been much better offensively last week if they didn’t battle a great Miami defense. I know that sounds odd, but the logic is there if you consider that both Bryan Bulaga and Trai Turner finally made their return from injury. Save for Mike Pouncey, the Chargers’ offensive line was intact for the first time all year. Unfortunately for the Chargers, it didn’t matter because Brian Flores’ defense rattled Justin Herbert.

Herbert won’t have the same issues in this contest. The only positive aspect of the Jets’ defense is their front line, thanks to Quinnen Williams and John Franklin-Myers, but the Chargers should be able to negate them with Bulaga and Turner stationed in the trenches once more. This will allow Herbert to attack a weak secondary by targeting Keenan Allen, who was smothered last week.

The Chargers will also have success against the Jets’ diminished linebacking corps, which is missing both starters. Hunter Henry could have a big game for that reason, as could Kalen Ballage, who has been a pleasant surprise.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It seemed as though there was a chance Sam Darnold would return this week, but that won’t be the case, as Joe Flacco will make another start. The last time we saw Flacco, he was inexplicably torching the Patriots, at least in the first three quarters of that game. Whatever fairy dust Flacco sprinkled on himself wore off by the final frame, as he failed to lead his team to a single first down.

Flacco will see lots of pressure from the Chargers if Joey Bosa can return from his absence. If not, Flacco will at least have a chance with a fully healthy receiving corps. The best aspect of the Jets’ roster, save for their defensive line, is the receiving corps, comprised of Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman and Denzel “Shut Up” Mimsy. They should be able to be in position to make some plays against an injury-ravaged Charger secondary, so it’s just a matter of Flacco having enough time in the pocket to find them.

RECAP: Both of these teams aren’t as bad as people think they are, which sucks for betting purposes. The Chargers are 2-7, but they’ve suffered so many close losses this year. They could easily be 5-4 or better, and if they maintained that record, they would be favored by nearly two touchdowns in this matchup. Conversely, the Jets are still the worst team in the NFL, but they’re better than they were in the first two months of the year because their receiving corps is completely healthy.

With that in mind, I don’t see a great betting opportunity. I’m leaning toward the Chargers, but I could easily see the Jets frustrate San Angeles bettors with a back-door cover at the very end.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Jets won’t have their top cornerback, Brian Poole, who was put on injured reserve. This is a huge development, as it’ll make Justin Herbert’s life much easier this week. If Joey Bosa returns from his concussion, I’ll be inclined to bet on the Chargers.

SATURDAY NOTES: Joey Bosa will be back, which will put me on the Chargers. This is the healthiest the Chargers have been all year, which makes betting them appealing. The Jets, meanwhile, won’t have their top cornerback, Brian Poole, to defend the talented San Angeles receivers.

SATURDAY NOTES II: I’m increasing the unit count. It was just announced that the Jets will be without their top two cornerbacks, which means they’re going to have a major problem dealing with the Charger receivers. I’m slightly worried about a back-door cover, but the Chargers should be able to win by double digits. I’m locking this in at -9.5 on Bovada before this line moves to -10.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m glad I locked this in on Saturday, as there are no -9.5s available. There was some sharp action on the Chargers at everything beneath -10.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We saw one rookie quarterback go down with an injury. Will that happen again? If you couldn’t tell, I’m very tilted by the Joe Burrow injury in what I assume will be a five-unit loss. Hopefully this game makes up for that. I still really like the Chargers, though nothing has changed. The sharps bet the Chargers below this number, and there were no major inactives.

Green Bay Packers (7-2) at Indianapolis Colts (6-3)
Line: Colts by 2. Total: 51.5.
Sunday, Nov. 22, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 13 continues! Emmitt and his friends confront Joey the Rat and Frankie Stechino in the riots. Will Joey and Frankie stop Emmitt from putting an end to the pandemic?

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers was incredible last week. The Packers scored just 24 against the Jaguars, but considering that Rodgers was battling 40-mph winds, his offensive output was quite impressive. He threw for 325 yards and two touchdowns on 24-of-34 passing, and he also had another score called back by penalty.

Winds obviously won’t be a factor inside Indianapolis’ dome, but the Colts defense certainly will be. Indianapolis has one of the top defensive units in the NFL, as it can pressure the quarterback effectively and also cover extremely well with Xavier Rhodes, who has enjoyed quite the bounce-back 2020 campaign after struggling so much in 2019. Rhodes won’t be able to completely stymie Davante Adams, but he’ll slow him down a bit, forcing Rodgers to look elsewhere. Fortunately for Rodgers, he should have Allen Lazard at his disposal once again.

Rodgers won’t be able to lean on Aaron Jones very much. Jones has been brilliant this year, but this is his toughest matchup since battling the Buccaneers. Jones was limited to just 15 yards on 10 carries in that Week 6 defeat, and he won’t have much more success against a dominant Colts front that just put the clamps on Derrick Henry.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The biggest matchup edge in this game has to be the Indianapolis’ rushing attack versus the Packers’ ground defense. Green Bay has been gashed by nearly every running attack it has faced thus far in 2020, and this game shouldn’t be any different.

The Colts, of course, have a plethora of backs, but it was refreshing to see that they seemingly discovered that Nyheim Hines is their top option at the position. Hines was spectacular against the Titans, so I’m looking forward to seeing if he can keep up that level of production in an even better matchup.

Philip Rivers will need Hines to keep performing well. The Packers should be getting both starting cornerbacks, Jaire Alexander and Kevin King, back from injury. Both were out against the Jaguars, but weren’t punished for it because of the extreme winds. If both happen to miss this contest, Rivers will have an even better afternoon than anticipated, as he’ll be able to successfully connect with T.Y. Hilton and the emerging Michael Pittman.

RECAP: The Colts have the big advantage in this game, with their running game going up against Green Bay’s soft run defense. That’s one of the reasons I’d consider picking the Colts. Frank Reich having extra time to prepare is another.

That said, I’m leaning toward the Packers. It’s a square side, so I won’t be betting this game, but all Rodgers needs to do is win. I know that’s a square way to look at this game, but sometimes the most logical route prevails.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jaire Alexander was limited in Wednesday’s practice, while Kevin King wasn’t even on the practice report. This is a huge development for the Packers, who could be close to full strength for the first time since Week 3. Then again, Davante Adams missed Thursday’s practice. If he’s out, I may switch to the Colts.

SATURDAY NOTES: Davante Adams and the two cornerbacks will suit up, so this is truly the healthiest the Packers have been since Week 3. That must be scary for Colts bettors. Then again, Indianapolis is very healthy as well. These are two teams I would’ve wanted to bet on this week, so it’s a shame that they’re playing each other.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The public is on the Packers. The sharps are on the Colts. I get the feeling the public will be right this time, but I’m not confident about that.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Allen Lazard and Kevin King are back for Green Bay. This means that the Packers, like the Colts, are fully healthy. Once again, I’d love to bet on both teams. The public and sharps are split on this, but I’m on the public’s side.

Dallas Cowboys (2-7) at Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
Line: Vikings by 7. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Nov. 22, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Barbara and the Starving Child.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: At the risk of sounding like a crazy loon, I think the Cowboys are underrated. They’re 2-7, and they’ve had some dreadful losses this year, but many of those came when the Cowboys were missing numerous, key defensive personnel. Most of Dallas’ stop unit is now healthy, so I don’t think the Vikings will score easily against them.

In fact, I think the Cowboys should be able to do an effective job, even against Dalvin Cook. A fully healthy linebacking corps is something the Cowboys have enjoyed in just one game this year, and that one game was in Week 9 versus Pittsburgh. The Cowboys did a great job of limiting James Conner, and while Cook is a much better player than Conner, a fully healthy Dallas defense should be able to at least restrict Cook enough to give the Cowboys a chance.

If Cook can’t run as well as he did versus the Packers and Lions, Kirk Cousins will have to throw more often, and anything can happen in that scenario. Of course, the version of the Cowboys that struggled in September and October wouldn’t stand a chance against Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, but the Cowboys are also much healthier in their secondary than they’ve been in the past.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Speaking of healthier players, Andy Dalton is expected to play in this game, so the Cowboys won’t have to rely on Ben DiNucci, Garrett Gilbert or Gilbert Gottfried to start at quarterback for them. Dalton is not a very good player, but he can manage a game well if the conditions aren’t too poor.

The conditions shouldn’t be very bad in this situation. The Cowboys will have Zack Martin on the field blocking for Dalton, something that wasn’t available for Dalton the last time he was under center. The two tackles are still sidelined, but the Vikings are also missing their top two edge rushers, so I’d consider this a wash.

The Cowboys actually have an advantage in this matchup, and that would be their talented receivers going up against the Minnesota cornerbacks. The Vikings are very banged up at the position, so I don’t think they’ll be able to stick with Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup.

RECAP: This spread is way too high. That wouldn’t have been the case several weeks ago when the Cowboys were missing numerous players on their offensive line and defense, but Dallas is much healthier now. Yet, this line is built as if the Cowboys are still severely banged up despite that no longer being the case.

I love the line value with the Cowboys, and I’m also a fan of fading the Vikings on short rest. They just endured a grueling defensive struggle against the divisional rival Bears, and now they’re huge favorites over a team they’ll take for granted. I just can’t see the Vikings having the same intensity in this matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is the healthiest the Cowboys have been since September, making them an underrated team. Thus, I agree with the sharp action on this game, which has taken this line all the way down to +7. The Vikings are way more banged up, so I like Dallas’ chances of covering.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s confirmed that this is the healthiest the Cowboys have been all year. Meanwhile, the Vikings will be down guard Ezra Cleveland, which leaves them thin at the position because Pat Elflein is no longer on the team. I believe the sharps have the right side. I’m going to lock in Dallas at +7 now, just in case the line falls to +6.5. The only +7s I see with -110 vig are at Bovada and FanDuel.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I was right to lock in the Chargers, but not to do so with the Cowboys because BetUS now has +7.5 -115 listed, which is definitely better than +7 -110. I still like the Cowboys a lot, and so do the sharps.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The best line is still Dallas +7.5 -115 at BetUS. The sharps bet the Cowboys at everything above +7. There were no surprise injuries, so I’m still maintaining my four-unit call on the underdog.

Kansas City Chiefs (8-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (6-3)
Line: Chiefs by 7.5. Total: 56.
Sunday, Nov. 22, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes tends to hold a grudge. When he beat the Bears last year, he counted the number of picks he had to wait before he was drafted following Mitchell Trubisky. Prior to the victory over the Jets, he told the media he was expecting New York to draft him. He proceeded to torch the Jets.

Mahomes’ only loss this year came against the Raiders, so I’m sure he remembers that game well. In that contest, the Chiefs lost multiple offensive linemen in the opening half, which made Mahomes’ pass protection struggle to contain the Raiders’ defensive front. If Mitchell Schwartz can return from injury – he’s had two weeks to recover – the Chiefs will have most of their blocking unit intact.

If this is the case, the rematch between the two teams will be far different than the first result. Mahomes won’t be running for his life and trying to make things happen. He’ll simply torch the Raiders’ mediocre secondary with his gifted weapons.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: If I’m right about the Chiefs being far more explosive offensively, there’s a good chance the Raiders will have to be far more aggressive in trying to keep up on the scoreboard. The Raiders could try to keep the ball away from Mahomes with some powerful Josh Jacobs runs, but there’s a very good chance Mahomes scores on every single drive, so this strategy likely won’t be effective.

Derek Carr is very good when managing a game, but it’s highly doubtful that he can engage in a shootout with Mahomes. He’s just too conservative with the ball, and I don’t think any of his downfield threats, aside from Darren Waller, is very good. Henry Ruggs is still raw, while Nelson Agholor and Hunter Renfrow are just mediocre talents.

The Chiefs also have the personnel to contain Carr and his threats. Kansas City’s cornerbacks are very underrated, while Chris Jones and the rest of the defensive line should be able to overwhelm a blocking unit that should continue to miss several starters.

RECAP: Mahomes holding a grudge is only part of the equation. The other is that Andy Reid is coming off a bye. I like betting great coaches with extra time to prepare. Reid is a wizard in this regard, owning a pristine 7-3 spread record after a bye as head coach of the Chiefs.

The Chiefs have the matchup and motivational edges in this game. Those are enough for me to make a multiple-unit wager on them. The size of the bet will depend on the status of these injured offensive linemen on both sides.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Good news for the Raiders: Kolton Miller and Maurice Hurst practiced Wednesday, albeit on a limited basis. Bad news for the Raiders: Clelin Ferrell, who has played much better this year, will be out with a minor illness. Worst news for the Raiders: They have to play a pissed-off Patrick Mahomes, who may have Mitchell Schwartz protecting him again.

SATURDAY NOTES: Mitchell Schwartz won’t be back yet, but the Chiefs got some good news with L’Jarius Sneed’s possible return. The talented cornerback will only make things more difficult for Derek Carr. Speaking of Carr, he’ll have Kolton Miller protecting his blind side. The Raiders have many players on the Nonsense List, so it’ll be interesting to see who is cleared to play.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There hasn’t been sharp money on this game yet, but the sharps could be on the Raiders with Mitchell Schwartz sidelined. I say this because one of the smartest books, CRIS/Bookmaker, has -7 -117 available. I’m going to wait and see if we can get a better -7.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Unfortunately, no good -7 is available, with the best one being for -125 at Bookmaker, which isn’t worth it. I’m betting three units on the Chiefs, but to be honest, I’m expecting the worst like a quarterback injury or a back-door cover. We’ve had horrible luck the past three weeks, and there doesn’t seem to be an end to it in sight. At any rate, there’s no sharp action on this game.

Los Angeles Rams (6-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3)
Line: Buccaneers by 4.5. Total: 48.
Monday, Nov. 23, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Tampa Bay where the St. Louis Rams battle the Tampa Bay Pirates. Guys, because I don’t care about any of the players on these teams because they’re not on my fantasy team, I’ve asked the producers to have us just vote on the winner of this game so we don’t have to watch it. So, who do you guys think should win? The St. Louis Cardinals or the Tampa Pirates? My vote is on the Pirates because I have pirate wallpaper in my room.

Emmitt: Wallace, I was looking forward to watching football game, and not only does I look forward to watching football game, I was also looking backward to watching football game. But if I have to cast my baron, it would be on the Pirate as well.

Reilly: That’s two votes for the Pirates and zero for the Rams. What do you think, Tolly?

Tollefson: Kevin, I’m going to have to abstain. I just saw one of the Tampa cheerleaders, and she’s exactly my type. I could see her being the woman who cooks and cleans naked for me perfectly. She won’t miss a spot! I must go down to the field and kidnap her.

Reilly: Tolly, you’re so lucky you get to speak to women. Mother won’t let me because she says I’m a young flower who hasn’t bloomed yet even though I’m 67 years old.

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Guys, I’ve heard some talk about flowers. Guys, there are lots of types of flowers, especially when you talk about flours, like the one you use to make bread. Because, when you have flours and not flowers, you can make bread, but you can’t give a present to a girlfriend because women like flowers and not flours. That’s because flowers are pretty and flours are not pretty even though flours are more practical. Because, when you talk about the difference between bread and gifts, bread is more important because you can eat bread but you can’t eat gifts, unless your gift is bread, and then it’s the same thing because bread is bread when bread is gifts.

Reilly: Shut up, Jason Williams! You don’t get a vote because you’re an idiot!

Fouts: Kevin, I vote for the Buccaneers, and here’s what I mean by vote. When you vote, you cast your baron, I mean your ballot for someone to elect them. And here’s what I mean by cast. When you cast a spell, you’re using magic, but when you’re casting your ballot, you’re also using magic because you put the paper in the machine and somehow it counts as votes even though it doesn’t appear to go anywhere!

Wolfley: DAN, BELIEVE IT OR NOT, BUT MY UNCLE, A HAIRY PICKLE WITH FOUR NOSES AND REAL SAUCE ON THE BOYS CREATED VOTING MACHINES. I KNOW HOW THEY ALL WORK, SO AFTER WE’RE DONE RECORDING, I’LL BE HAPPY TO GIVE YOU AN EIGHT-HOUR PRESENTATION ON THEM. IN THE MEANTIME, I ALSO VOTE FOR THE BUCCANEERS.

Reilly: That’s four votes for the Buccaneers. What do you think, New Daddy? Buccaneers or Cardinals?

Cutler: I dunno, I don’t really care. Eisenhower, I guess.

Reilly: No, New Daddy, Eisenhower isn’t one of the choices! I’ll mark you down for the Buccaneers.

Alyssa Milano: Ex-ca-use me! Why didn’t anyone ask me who I want to vote for!? Is it because I’m a woman!? Is that why I don’t get a vote!? Ex-ca-use me! EX-CA-USE ME! Even though you shouldn’t assume genders, you should have asked me! That’s it, I’m calling the election police! But in the meantime, I vote Buccaneers.

Reilly: That’s six votes for the Buccaneers! Looks like the Buccaneers will win, which is great news because I bet my allowance on them!

Charles Davis: Not so fast, Kevin! Looks like we have some late votes coming in, Kevin. Here’s a vote from Pat Summerall, Kevin. He’s picking the Rams, Kevin. Looks like a vote from Howard Cosell, Kevin. He’s picking the Rams, too, Kevin. I found a vote from Keith Jackson, Kevin. It’s another Rams pick, Kevin. I have a vote from Frank Gifford, Kevin. A vote for the Rams, Kevin! Here’s a vote from Curt Gowdy, Kevin. A vote from the Rams as well, Kevin! Why not get in this vote from Hank Stram, Kevin? Why, it’s another vote for the Rams, Kevin! Last but not least, another vote from Pat Summerall, Kevin. He’s picking the Rams once again, Kevin! Looks like the Rams win, 7-6, Kevin!

Reilly: WHAT!? THAT’S BULLS**T! DEAD NFL ANNOUNCERS SHOULDN’T BE ABLE TO VOTE! NOW, MY ALLOWANCE MONEY IS GONE, A**HOLE! We’ll be back after this!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams beat the Seahawks, but it was a very Pyrrhic victory because they lost Andrew Whitworth for the season. Whitworth is turning 39 in December, but he was still performing as one of the top left tackles in the NFL. He’s one of the primary reasons why Jared Goff had been playing well at times in 2020.

Whitworth’s absence changes everything, especially in this matchup. Jared Goff needs everything to be perfect around him to succeed, and that’s no longer going to be the case without Whitworth. The Buccaneers have a stellar defensive line that will be able to pressure Goff, forcing him into some errors.

It’ll also hurt Goff that he won’t be able to function off play-action fakes very well. Goff has been great off play-action, but the Buccaneers have the best run defense in the NFL, so they won’t be impacted by it.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: No one had been able to stop D.K. Metcalf until last week. Metcalf bullied Stephon Gilmore and Tre’Davious White, two of the better cornerbacks in the NFL. However, he met his match versus Jalen Ramsey, who was able to really limit him.

Ramsey can shut down any receiver, but which one? The Buccaneers have three elite receivers, which could prove to be problematic for the Rams. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin getting healthier, and Antonio Brown becoming a more functional part of the offense, the Buccaneers have so many lethal threats for Brady to utilize.

Of course, Brady will have to worry about Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd. We all know what can happen to Brady when battling a front that can put immense pressure on the quarterback, so it’ll be imperative that the Buccaneers will have all of their offensive linemen available. This includes Pro Bowl guard Ali Marpet, who has missed the past two games.

RECAP: I’m not a believer in the Rams. They’re 6-3, but four of those victories have come against the pitiful NFC East. A fifth win occurred at home versus the Bears. All of this was with Whitworth at left tackle. Had the Rams endured a tougher schedule, without Whitworth, their record would be 4-5 or 3-6 right now. If that were the case, the Buccaneers would be favored by at least a touchdown.

With that in mind, this spread is too short. My projected numbers say the Buccaneers should be favored by 4.5, which gives some very good value, especially if we can find nice vig for -3. I’m not as high on the Buccaneers -3.5 because Tampa winning by exactly three is a likely result, but I’ll still be willing to bet on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Rams have been healthy all year, but they’re now down a key player on each side of the ball, with Andrew Whitworth and Taylor Rapp suffering injuries. Conversely, the Buccaneers could get back Ali Marpet for this game. There’s been sharp money on the Buccaneers thus far.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ali Marpet practiced fully at the beginning of the week, but he’s doubtful for this game. That’s a huge blow for the Buccaneers, but not enough to take me off a small bet.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps jumped on the Buccaneers, taking this spread to -4.5. I didn’t think they’d do that; otherwise, I would have locked in the Buccaneers at -4. There’s no reason to panic now, as it’s possible we might see -4 again.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It sucks not to have Ali Marpet available, but I still like the Buccaneers enough to bet two units on them. They’re much better than the Rams, especially with Andrew Whitworth no longer playing, so they should cover. The sharps also bet on Tampa at -3.5 and a bit at -4. The best line I see now is -4 -103 at Bookmaker, followed by -4 -115 at BetUS.