Arizona Cardinals (6-3) at Seattle Seahawks (6-3) Line: Seahawks by 3. Total: 58. Thursday, Nov. 19, 8:20 PM
The Matchup. Edge: None.
WEEK 10 RECAP: Week 10 wasn't nearly as bad as Week 9, but we got killed on line moves. The worst was losing the Cardinals -2.5 because Arizona didn't kick an extra point after the Hail Mary. We also pushed on the Redskins +3. Had we gotten those earlier, we would have won with Arizona -1.5 and Washington +3.5/4. With those two wins, we would've had a winning week. Instead, we went 5-8-1 (-$825).
My Week 11 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.
By the way, if you want to support this site, check out my new book!
In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would've happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.
SEATTLE OFFENSE: I'm worried about Russell Wilson. I expected the Seahawks to bounce back off a defeat last week, but that didn't happen. It wasn't just the result though; it was more of how Wilson looked mentally checked out mentally. FOX color analyst Troy Aikman, who was broadcasting the game, apparently felt the same way I did:
"He's not totally in tune with what's happening in this game," Aikman said when Wilson failed to run out of bounds while needing to stop the clock. Wilson was also flagged for a delay-of-game penalty on a crucial third down and wasn't seeing the field correctly. This has to be disconcerting if you're a Seahawk fan. Wilson is only human, so if there's something negative going on in his personal life, it could impact Wilson's ability to perform up to his talent level, and there's no doubt that Wilson hasn't looked like himself the past two weeks.
Of course, if Wilson can get over whatever's bothering him, he should do well versus Arizona. We just saw Wilson torch the Cardinals a few weeks ago with constant passes to Tyler Lockett, and nothing has changed since.
ARIZONA OFFENSE: We know by now that the Seahawks can't stop the pass. Jared Goff torched them in between the 20s last week before leaning on the running game in the red zone. I'd say that we can only imagine what Kyler Murray will do to Seattle after seeing Goff play well last week, but we don't have to imagine because Murray ripped through the Seahawk secondary several weeks ago. Murray went 34-of-48 for 360 yards, three touchdowns and an interception in the Week 7 overtime victory.
One thing has changed since then, and that would be Jamal Adams' presence. Adams, however, has not performed well since his return to action. He may still be out of shape, and if so, he'll continue to play better as the weeks progress. However, given that there are only three days of rest after the last game, it's unlikely that Adams will be much better Thursday night than he was versus the Rams.
It's worth noting that the Seahawks were still down multiple cornerbacks in their loss to the Rams. There's a chance that one of Quinton Dunbar or Shaq Griffin will be available. Then again, the three days of rest may have something to say about that.
RECAP: Under normal circumstances, I would be betting on the Seahawks. I love wagering on elite quarterbacks following a loss. Russell Wilson is 23-11 against the spread after a defeat since his second year.
However, there's something wrong with Wilson. As mentioned, he appears to be mentally checked out for some reason. Perhaps things will change after this game because he'll have more than a week to recover, but how can things dramatically change for Wilson after just three days? I'm going to be on Arizona, but for a non-wager.
Our Week 11 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Seahawks might be getting back K.J. Wright this week, but they won't have their top two cornerbacks once again, which gives the Cardinals a huge edge with their talented receivers. I would be tempted to bet the Cardinals if Russell Wilson weren't coming off a loss. Wilson has struggled lately, but could easily snap out of it with a great performance.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The Seahawks are without the players we thought they'd be missing. I like the Cardinals a bit, but not enough to bet them. I'm scared to death of a pissed-off Russell Wilson snapping out of his funk and going nuts. If he doesn't do that, however, Arizona should win, or at least cover/push. The sharps aren't taking sides, but if you like the Cardinals, the best line is +3 -105 at both BetUS and Bookmaker.
The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.
Is Russell Wilson checked out mentally?
Philadelphia Eagles (3-5-1) at Cleveland Browns (6-3) Line: Browns by 2.5. Total: 45.5. Sunday, Nov. 22, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Browns.
My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!
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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I was on the Eagles last week - albeit for no units - because I really thought that Carson Wentz would improve. Not only did he have a bye week to fix things; he was also getting back several injured players. The Eagles would have both tackles on the field for the third time all year, and in an easy matchup to boot. How could things go wrong?
Wentz was terrible. The loss to the Giants wasn't completely his fault because he was under siege quite often, but many of his passes sailed over his receivers' heads. Again, this was an easy matchup versus a New York defense with no pass rush. The Browns certainly have a good one with Myles Garrett, Olivier Vernon and company. They'll make things difficult for Wentz, who should continue to misfire and fail to see the field properly.
Miles Sanders might just be the Eagles' only hope. Sanders is capable of breaking a long gain at any moment, so perhaps he'll put the Eagles in position to have a chance at the win. He did this with a long touchdown at Pittsburgh, but the Steelers overcame that, and the Browns might be able to do so as well.
CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Speaking of talented running backs, Nick Chubb was on the field for the Browns for the first time in several weeks. Chubb eclipsed the century mark, thanks to his non-touchdown touchdown run at the very end, angering bettors and fantasy players everywhere. I fell victim to this, as I played Chubb in most of my high-stakes DraftKings lineups.
Chubb won't have as much success versus the Eagles, who are still stout against the run. Baker Mayfield will have to do much more, though he may have an easy time in doing so because the Eagles are dreadful against the pass. They're particularly poor at linebacker, so Mayfield connecting with Austin Hooper and Kareem Hunt should be an effective strategy.
It'll help Mayfield's cause that he now has a fully intact offensive line. This wasn't the case for several weeks prior to the bye because talented guard Wyatt Teller was out of the lineup, but he returned last week and dominated in his first action since Week 5. Having him around to deal with the Eagles' talented interior will be huge.
RECAP: Based on how the Eagles have played, and not their overall talent level, this line is low. I made this spread Cleveland -5.5. The computer model is even more bullish on the Browns with a -7 projection.
I suppose there's a chance that Wentz could suddenly revert to 2017 mode - or even late 2019 mode - but we have seen no evidence of that. Philadelphia's offensive line is not protecting him well, and there seems to be something missing with Wentz.
I'm going to bet a couple of units on the Browns. I want to do so at -3 though, as Cleveland winning by three is one of the most likely results of this game.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has been taken off the board because of some concerns about minor illnesses. Nothing will change, as far as I know, so I'm sticking with the Browns, pending some major injury news that could be revealed later in the week.
SATURDAY NOTES: The Browns suddenly have some injury concerns in the trenches. Myles Garrett is sidelined with a minor illness, while stellar guard Wyatt Teller is questionable. He was limited in every practice, and he's expected to play, but Kevin Stefanski said that Teller is "sore," so he may not be 100 percent. Meanwhile, the Eagles will welcome back Isaac Seumalo, which means their offensive line will be intact, save for Brandon Brooks, for the first time all year! With the Browns down their best offensive player (Odell Beckham), defensive player (Garrett) and potentially top interior lineman (Teller), the Eagles seem like a great play. I awoke Saturday morning wanting to bet them, but the spread dropped to +2.5 already, thanks to major sharp action! The best +3 I see is at -132 vig (at Bookmaker), so I'm going to wait and see if we can get something better.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Wyatt Teller is active, which isn't a surprise. As I said, however, he could be hobbled. I still like the Eagles, and we found a better +3 than yesterday. The best +3 I see is for -124 vig on Bookmaker (and then -130 at BetUS). Three is worth paying up for because the Browns winning by three is the most likely outcome of this game. Note that the sharps bet on the Eagles +3, but not Eagles +2.5.
Atlanta Falcons (3-6) at New Orleans Saints (7-2) Line: Saints by 3. Total: 49.5. Sunday, Nov. 22, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: None.
VEGAS UPDATE: I'll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 44-40-2 last season and 20-24 heading into Week 10.
Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:
The highest-bet teams went 1-1, so it was a slightly winning week for the books (when factoring in the vig, parlays.)
Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:
It can't be a surprise that the Chiefs are getting the most bets, despite the Radiers' recent wins. The Patriots aren't shocking either after their big Sunday night win.
NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Jameis Winston will start this game, which means anyone can score a touchdown. Winston is the Oprah Winfrey of touchdowns in the NFL. "You get a touchdown, and you get a touchdown, and you get a touchdown!" Anyone, on any team, can score at any moment. It's so exciting!
Winston would've had a better chance of torching the Falcons about a month ago, but Atlanta has gotten healthier in the secondary recently. Either A.J. Terrell or Darqueze Dennard was out between Weeks 3 and 8, but both were finally on the field in Week 9, when the Falcons limited Drew Lock. Granted, this wasn't the toughest matchup, but it's not like Winston is an imposing presence under center.
The Saints will naturally try to get Alvin Kamara involved, and this should work in the passing game. However, the Falcons are actually pretty stout against the run, so they should be able to limit both Kamara and Latavius Murray as rushers.
ATLANTA OFFENSE: Besides their cornerbacks being healthy now, another reason why the Falcons are underrated now is because their receiving corps is intact as well. Julio Jones missed three games earlier in the year, and Atlanta lost each of them, suffering defeats against the Bears, Packers and Panthers. With Jones available, the Falcons are 3-3 on the year, and of the three losses, two were possible wins, with Atlanta blowing a huge lead to the Cowboys and suffering the Todd Gurley goal-line mishap versus the Lions. The only true defeat was in Week 1 to the Seahawks.
The Saints have strong personnel on defense, but there won't be any stopping Jones and Calvin Ridley, so I'm expecting a nice game from Matt Ryan. The long-time Falcon quarterback is protected well, so his offensive line should be able to neutralize a strong New Orleans pass rush.
I wouldn't expect anything out of Gurley because the Saints are excellent versus the run. Thus, there's a chance the Falcons may blow another lead, but they should be able to move the chains effectively throughout the course of this game.
RECAP: Long-time readers know I love betting on good teams missing their quarterbacks for the first time, and the Saints obviously qualify as such. However, this dynamic applies only when the team in question is not expected to win. The thinking behind this scenario is that the other players on the roster know that they have to try extra hard to compensate for the starting quarterback's absence. Here, the Saints are still a healthy favorite over a 3-6 team. The urgency won't be there.
With that in mind, I like the Falcons a bit. This spread is still too high, as the Falcons are a much better team now than the one that was losing to the Bears, Packers and Panthers. It's also difficult to support Winston as a big favorite like this. Winston is 2-3 against the spread as a favorite of more than four in his career, and the two wins came against Mike Glennon's 2017 Bears and David Blough's 2019 Lions. Ryan is just slightly better than those two quarterbacks, so he should have his team in position to win.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Drew Brees' rib issue isn't the only injury the Saints need to worry about. Cameron Jordan failed to practice Wednesday because of a back problem. If he can't go, I would surely increase my unit count on the underrated Falcons.
SATURDAY NOTES: I've been asked why I haven't picked the Saints because they're a good team missing their starting quarterback for the first time. I answered that above, but to recap quickly, I didn't think that dynamic applied because they were healthy favorites. That, however, has changed, as this line has fallen. Meanwhile, Taysom Hill will reportedly start this game. All the dumb, blue checks on Twitter are upset by this, which makes me wonder why they think they know more than Sean Payton does. With people beginning to doubt the Saints, I'm inclined to switch to them at this juicy line of -3. I'm not sure I can quite get there on a wager, but I have no more interest in the Falcons because Hill projects to be better than Winston.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Marshon Lattimore will be out, but I still like the Saints. Maybe I'll be wrong, but I think the media is going to be shocked by how well Taysom Hill will play today. It's worth noting that the sharps stopped betting the Falcons when Hill was announced as the starter. If you're going to bet the Saints, make sure you get -3, which you can get for -128 vig at Bookmaker.
Detroit Lions (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (3-7) Line: Lions by 3. Total: 47. Sunday, Nov. 22, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: None.
HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got a bit this week:
I'm shocked that people still think that Fauxvid-19 is very serious. The CDC actually said the real number of deaths, as of Sept. 1, was only 9,210. If low-information voters were aware of this, there would be zero lockdowns everywhere, but the media is blatantly lying to the public so that people in power can remain in control. It's disgusting.
Here's the follow-up:
This is the biggest hoax of our lifetime, and people are buying the blatant media lies, hook, line and sinker. It's depressing how many low-information people there are because of the harmful media.
Here's some non-Fauxvid-19 hate:
You know what they say about one man's trash. Another man has to scroll through it!
Last one: My developer, Dennis, who goes by WFDevTeam, posted on the NFL Power Rankings page about my Final Fantasy Luton picture. There was a reply:
Yeah, WTF, Blobama. A second-grader couldn't possibly design something as beautiful as this!
DETROIT OFFENSE: It's the battle of the injured quarterbacks! Matthew Stafford underwent X-rays on his hand following the victory over the Redskins. What was odd was that Stafford had this hand injury when he engineered the game-winning drive. He was obviously feeling fine then, but I've learned over the years not to trust this. There's a chance there could be swelling or discomfort in Stafford's hand as the week progresses. It's nice that the X-rays were negative, but something is clearly bothering him.
I don't want to trust Stafford if he's banged up, even in an easy matchup like this. The Panthers have been dreadful against the pass ever since losing Kawann Short. They don't generate great pressure on the quarterback, so Stafford, if healthy, will be in a position to pick apart the Panthers' woeful secondary.
The Panthers aren't very good against the run either, so perhaps Stafford won't have to do very much. He could just lean on D'Andre Swift, who enjoyed an explosive performance in his first game as a starter. It was such a relief to finally see Matt Patricia "Get Swifty" after begging for him to do so for weeks.
CAROLINA OFFENSE: Teddy Bridgewater is hurt as well. Bridgewater is "day-to-day" with an injured knee, which is why there's no spread on this game, as of Tuesday afternoon.
The Lions also have major issues stopping the pass, so a healthy Bridgewater would be able to take advantage of that with his talented receivers. Phillip Walker, however, would be another story. I love Walker to death because he won me tons of money on XFL DraftKings contests, but he's not a great passer. Walker can scramble to make up for that, so I wouldn't say the Panthers have no chance with him. However, the passing game would definitely be diminished.
That said, the Panthers would surely be able to take advantage of Detroit's pitiful run defense, even without Christian McCaffrey's services. McCaffrey will be out once more, but Mike Davis is fully capable of having a great game in this spot.
RECAP: There's no line on this game at the moment, and we have no idea how healthy both quarterbacks are. I'm going to lean on the Lions as of right now, but that could change. Check back later, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Matthew Stafford has a partial tear in his throwing-hand thumb. That will definitely take me off the Lions, though I won't be jumping at the opportunity to bet the Panthers because Teddy Bridgewater is dealing with a troublesome knee as well.
SATURDAY NOTES: It's the battle of two teams I wish I could fade this week! The Lions will likely be starting Matthew Stafford, who has a bum thumb, and they'll be without the services of Kenny Golladay, D'Andre Swift, Danny Amendola and Trey Flowers. Meanwhile, the Panthers may or may not have Teddy Bridgewater, but we know they'll be without two starting offensive linemen (Russell Okung, John Miller) and starting cornerback Donte Jackson. These are two teams I wanted to bet against this week, so it sucks that they're matched up against each other. There's no line posted yet, so I'll have an update when there is one.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Phillip Walker will start for Teddy Bridgewater. Everyone was quick to bet the Lions - both public and sharps - up to -3. The line stopped moving there, but I'm more than happy to select Carolina. Walker was the MVP of the XFL, so he's not totally inept. He'll be able to run around and make things happen against an inept Detroit defense. Meanwhile, the Lions are missing their top offensive players (Kenny Golladay, D'Andre Swift) and their best defensive player (Trey Flowers). On top of that, Stafford has a bum thumb, so he probably won't be himself. I'm going to make a small bet on the Panthers +3 -105 at FanDuel.
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: It was nice to see the Patriots get back to basics against the Ravens. They decided to rely on their great offensive line to pound the rock against Baltimore. It helped that the Ravens, already down Calais Campbell, lost Brandon Williams to injury. This allowed Damien Harris to eclipse the century plateau.
The Texans aren't missing any Pro Bowlers up front, but it doesn't matter because they are woeful against the run. They have the worst rush defense in the NFL, so Harris should be able to pick up where he left off last week. New England's excellent offensive line won't have any issues winning in the trenches, except against J.J. Watt.
The Texans also aren't good at stopping the pass. Bradley Roby's return helped last week, but Houston has liabilities elsewhere on the field. Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels will find and exploit those weaknesses.
HOUSTON OFFENSE: I'd love for the Texans to hire Bill O'Brien again, just so they could fire him once more in the wake of what transpired in Arizona on Sunday. It's truly amazing that O'Brien thought that fair value for Hopkins was a decrepit running back and a second-round pick.
That decrepit running back, David Johnson, has been sidelined for a couple of weeks, so he may not be able to play in this game. The Patriots don't have the best run defense, but I don't think it matters either way, as Houston's offensive line wasn't opening up running lanes for Johnson when he was healthy.
Deshaun Watson is still capable of pulling out a victory against most mediocre or worse teams, but he'll face a challenge against Belichick. The legendary coach is capable of erasing one aspect of an opposing offense. The only question is if that'll be Will Fuller or Brandin Cooks. If Stephon Gilmore returns from injury, it could be both.
RECAP: This spread moved FIVE points from the advance line. That's crazy. The Texans were favored by 2.5 prior to Week 10, and they were underdogs by that exact number prior to a shift to +2 on Tuesday afternoon.
I like fading line moves like this, but we haven't crossed any key numbers. Also, I believe the advance line was mispriced. I don't understand why the Texans could be considered even/slightly better than the Patriots. New England had some ugly losses a few weeks ago to the Broncos and 49ers, but they've been better ever since Cam Newton's hand has healed after he hit it on the helmet of a Denver player. Also, the Patriots' offensive line is mostly intact, which wasn't the case against the Broncos.
The Patriots still might be underrated despite their big win on national TV, so I have interest in them as long as they're favored by fewer than three points.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Stephon Gilmore wasn't on Wednesday's practice report, so does that mean he'll return this week? It appears so, though you never know with Bill Belichick, who is more secretive than the Chinese government.
SATURDAY NOTES: Let me correct something from the Thursday Thoughts. Stephon Gilmore did indeed show up on the practice report. He was limited all week. What that means is anyone's guess. Meanwhile, Laremy Tunsil missed practice all week with an illness (not Fauxvid-19.) He's questionable, but he'll likely suit up if it's just the flu or a stomach bug. If Tunsil is ruled out, and Gilmore plays, I'll have interest in betting on the Patriots.
FINAL THOUGHTS: As promised, I'm betting on the Patriots because Gilmore is back, while Tunsil is sidelined. The Texans are now down two starting offensive linemen, which is a huge deal against Bill Belichick. Had I possessed this information, I may have used the Patriots in the SuperContest. Nevertheless, this will be a three-unit wager on New England. The best line is -2.5 -113 at Bookmaker.
PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I guess those arm concerns were overblown? Ben Roethlisberger was seen frequently holding his arm in pain against the Cowboys, in a game that was way closer than it should have been. Roethlisberger managed to squeeze out a victory, thanks to some timely Dallas penalties. The Steelers were lucky to survive, and then they went on to thrash the Bengals in unfavorable conditions last week.
If Roethlisberger and all of his weapons are on point once more, this should be a demolition. The Jaguars have some major defensive liabilities. They have depth issues in their secondary, which is a huge problem here because the Steelers have four talented receivers. Roethlisberger, who won't face much pressure because the Jaguars can't apply any, will release precise passes to those dangerous threats. At least two of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson and James Washington will have monstrous games.
Meanwhile, the Steelers will be able to lean on their ground attack as well. James Conner was oddly quiet against the Bengals, but he should be able to rebound against the Jaguars, who have struggled to stop opposing running backs this year.
JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars managed to stay within four of the Packers last week, but don't attribute that to Jake Luton. Jacksonville struggled to maintain drives, but capitalized on good field position and a kickoff returned for a touchdown. Luton remained a huge liability despite the Packers missing both of their starting cornerbacks.
Luton will face relentless pressure from the Steelers, which could force him into some mistakes. The Steelers aren't missing personnel in their secondary, so they should be able to collect some turnovers from the inexperienced quarterback.
It would help Luton if the Jaguars were able to establish the run. The Jaguars were able to do so last week, as James Robinson picked up some nice gains against the Packers' putrid ground defense. The Steelers are far better against the rush, so Luton will have to do everything himself.
RECAP: The Steelers should demolish the Jaguars. "Should" is the key word in that sentence and throughout this selection capsule, given how great of a mismatch this is.
There's a good chance, however, that the Steelers sleepwalk through this game. They're 9-0 now with a victory over a divisional opponent. After this "easy" win, they have to battle the Ravens again. Pittsburgh could be looking ahead to that game. Also, the Steelers have an abysmal track record as a large road favorite. They're 4-19 against the spread in their previous 23 road games as a favorite of eight or more. That's truly anemic.
I think we could see another sloppy performance from the Steelers, mirroring the showing they had in Dallas. They'll win this game, but it could be an ugly effort. Either way, I'm not betting on this contest.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is such an obvious look-ahead game that perhaps it won't end up being a look-ahead game. I could easily see the Steelers clobber the Jaguars, so I don't plan on betting this contest.
SATURDAY NOTES: Brandon Linder will return for Jacksonville, making it easier for the home dog to cover. As I've been saying, this game will hinge on the Steelers showing up or not. I have no plans to bet this contest.
FINAL THOUGHTS: It was just announced that the Jaguars will be down a couple of cornerbacks (C.J. Henderson, Sidney Jones), which will make defending the Steelers much more difficult. This was already a problem for the Jaguars; the real question is how focused the Steelers will be. If you think the Steelers will be sharp, feel free to bet them heavily. The sharps haven't touched this game.
The Motivation. Edge: Jaguars.
The Steelers will be focused on battling the Ravens next week.
Cincinnati Bengals (2-6-1) at Washington Redskins (2-7) Line: Redskins by 2. Total: 47.5. Sunday, Nov. 22, 1:00 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.
If you've followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the "United Bank of Africoan" promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a "lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP)." Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.
I've been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I had plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I'll have new ones every week this year!
WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I recently heard someone ask why J.D. McKissic has become a focal part of the Redskins' passing game. The answer is simple: Alex Smith can't throw the ball more than 10 yards! He has to rely on McKissic, who has a mind-boggling 29 targets in the past two weeks. To give you an idea of how absurd that is, McKissic saw 28 total targets in the previous six games!
With Smith extremely limited as a passer, he can only throw checkdowns, and thus everything is sucked in closer to the line of scrimmage. If the Bengals can stop the run, that'll give them a big advantage. They should be able to do so if Geno Atkins returns this week. Atkins was sidelined against the Steelers, but only for personal reasons. Having him on the field would be a huge boon for the Bengals' chances of stopping McKissic and fellow back Antonio Gibson.
The Redskins' only other threat is Terry McLaurin. The Bengals don't have the best secondary, but they've gotten healthier in that area recently. They were missing either Mackensie Alexander or William Jackson in every game, ranging from Weeks 4 to 8. With a better defensive backfield, the Bengals will have a better chance of not getting destroyed by McLaurin.
CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Joe Burrow has enjoyed an excellent rookie campaign since Week 2 if you exclude two games. Those two contests, of course, were ugly blowout losses to the Ravens and Steelers, two teams with elite defenses. He has thrown for at least 300 yards in nearly every other game.
Per the numbers, the Redskins have an elite defense as well. They came into Week 10 ranked second against the pass. I truly believe this was nonsense because, aside from Kyler Murray, the quarterbacks they've battled this year have been Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff and Daniel Jones (twice). I wouldn't qualify any of those signal-callers as top-15 passers, and that includes Jackson, who has taken a step backward this year.
I trust Burrow more than any of those quarterbacks as a pure passer, so I like his chances against the Redskins. It won't be perfect if right tackle Bobby Hart is sidelined again, but if Hart can return, the Bengals will have a mostly healthy offensive line to combat the Redskins' talented front.
RECAP: The advance spread was a pick 'em, but the Redskins are now favored because the Bengals were crushed by the second-best team in the NFL, while the Redskins nearly beat a Detroit squad that was missing key personnel. Sure.
The Bengals are the better team, and they should be favored by close to a field goal. I plan on betting Cincinnati, but I'd like to see if Atkins/Hart play, and where this spread ends up before I determine a precise unit count.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There's a good chance the Bengals will be much healthier this week. Bobby Hart and some of the injured cornerbacks from Week 10 were already limited in practice, so things are looking up for the Bengals, as they try to bounce back from an ugly defeat against the Steelers.
SATURDAY NOTES: Remember those offensive line issues the Bengals had a few weeks ago? They're all gone, as Xavier Su'a-Filo is the only starter missing now with Bobby Hart due back this Sunday. Geno Atkins is also ready to play, as Cincinnati will be at full strength. Conversely, the Redskins won't have two of their safeties (Landon Collins, Deshazor Everett) and three of their offensive tackles because Cornelius Lucas will join Geron Christian and Saahdiq Charles in being sidelined. The Bengals are now my top play of the week.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bengals are still my top play. I'm shocked the sharps haven't bet them (or even touched this game.) The best line I see is +2 -108 at Bookmaker.
TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The injury report will have to be closely monitored heading into this game, as the Ravens need at least one of Calais Campbell or Brandon Williams on the field. We saw what happened when both were sidelined Sunday night, as the Patriots steamrolled over the Ravens with Damien Harris. Derrick Henry has to be licking his chops in anticipation of a huge game.
If Campbell and Williams are sidelined, Henry will bulldoze the Ravens. If one returns, the Ravens should be able to keep Henry somewhat in check, and if both are available, Henry won't have any running room.
Henry's ability to trample the Ravens is obviously imperative, given how good Baltimore's pass defense is. The Ravens don't exactly have a challenge against Ryan Tannehill, though there's always a possibility that A.J. Brown breaks a long gain.
BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I've seen some NFL analysts speculate that the rest of the league has caught up to Lamar Jackson. There might be some truth to that, but the real problem for Jackson is that his offensive line isn't nearly as strong as it was last year. He had an elite blocking unit in 2019, but with Marshal Yanda retired and Ronnie Stanley injured, Jackson isn't afforded the same protection, which is making a huge difference.
Fortunately for Jackson, he won't be battling any sort of potent pass rush in this contest. There aren't many teams in the NFL that struggle to get to the quarterback as much as Tennessee does. Jackson should have more success as a result, though the potential return of Adoree Jackson could make throwing the ball to Marquise Brown difficult.
The Titans happen to be better against the run than the pass, which should help in this matchup. That said, I still expect Lamar Jackson to pick up his usual yardage on the ground.
RECAP: It's difficult to make a call on this game at the moment because the Ravens have so many injury question marks. Depending on what happens with Campbell and Williams, I could see myself betting multiple units on the Titans, or perhaps even multiple units on the Ravens.
I will say that I'm leaning toward the Titans if we have a neutral injury report. This spread seems too high, given the Ravens' diminished offensive line. I made this spread Baltimore -4, and the computer model thinks -5 is correct. Going through the third-most-important key number of six is a big deal.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The injury report will be crucial here, as there are so many unknowns. Calais Campbell, Brandon Williams, Jimmy Smith, Adoree Jackson and Jadeveon Clowney are some of the key players who may or may not play in this game. The sharps put tons of money on the Titans on Thursday afternoon, so that could mean some bad injury news for the Ravens that we aren't aware of yet.
SATURDAY NOTES: This is depressing. I was hoping Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams would be sidelined so I could bet the Titans. They are, but unfortunately, Tennessee may not be able to take advantage of this liability. In addition to Taylor Lewan, the Titans will be missing Rodger Saffold and probably Ben Jones, who is questionable after missing practice every day. Furthermore, the Titans won't have Jadeveon Clowney, Adoree Jackson or Kenny Vaccaro. With this line low, I'm going to flip to the Ravens, but won't be betting this game.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The Titans got some good news with Ben Jones being active, but their offensive line is still going to hurt with two starters sidelined. I wish the Ravens had one of Calais Campbell or Brandon Williams available, but both are out. This is a non-wager for me. The sharps bet the Titans earlier in the week until it was announced how banged up Tennessee was, and then some sharp money came in on the Ravens.
Week 11 NFL Picks - Late Games
Dolphins at Broncos, Jets at Chargers, Cowboys at Vikings, Chiefs at Raiders, Rams at Buccaneers
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2020): 3-11 (-$1,935)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2020): 0-5 (-$1,575)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2020): 1-2 (-$690)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2020): 11-3 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2020): +$230
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 0-2, 0% (-$1,735)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 80-76-5, 51.3% (-$1,115) 2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 28-31-3, 47.5% (-$2,750) 2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-14, 60.0% (+$2,585) 2020 Season Over-Under: 83-74-4, 52.9% ($0) 2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%) 2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%) 2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%) 2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%) 2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%) 2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%) 2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%) 2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%) 2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585) 2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105) 2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235) 2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880) 2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335) 2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445) 2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825) 2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885) 2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215) 2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780) 2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300) 2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845) 2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%) 2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%) 2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%) 2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%) 2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%) 2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110) 2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510) 2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260) 2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180) 2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715) 2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130) 2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890) 2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820) 2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475) 2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395) 2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670) 2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%) 2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%) 2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%) 2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%) 2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%) 2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420) 2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055) 2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330) 2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790) 2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260) 2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650) 2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970) 2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120) 2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465) 2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595) 2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735) 2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%) 2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%) 2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%) 2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%) 2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%) 2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%) 2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900) 2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860) 2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195) 2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5) 2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135) 2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30) 2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340) 2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0) 2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95) 2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640) 2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225) 2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035 2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775 2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865 2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200 2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590 2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685 2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245 2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855 2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275 2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510 2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495 2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%) 2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400) 2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720) 2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640) 2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810) 2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870) 2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560) 2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900) 2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350) 2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100) 2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780) 2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040) 2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640) 2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,937-2,713-177, 52.0% (+$9,190) Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 938-847-49 (52.6%) Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 436-388-22 (52.9%) Career Over-Under: 2,406-2,368-65 (50.4%) Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%) Career NFL Picks of the Month: 43-29-1 (59.7%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.