NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2019): 10-6 (+$140)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2019): 10-6 (+$1,365)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2019): 12-3 (+$1,240)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2019): 8-7 (+$1,665)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2019): 9-5 (+$2,505)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2019): 8-6 (+$1,130)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2019): 8-7 (+$435)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2019): 3-9-1 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2019): 8-5 (+$1,460)

NFL Picks (2019): 95-70-2 (+$10,190)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 17, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 11 NFL Picks – Early Games

Arizona Cardinals (3-6-1) at San Francisco 49ers (8-1)
Line: 49ers by 10. Total: 44.
Sunday, Nov. 17, 4:05 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: I liked the 49ers enough to bet three units on them Monday night. They were looking great to begin the game, as they established a 10-0 lead. Things changed, however, when Emmanuel Sanders and center Weston Richburg suffered injuries on the same play. Richburg missed just a bit of action, but Sanders was lost for the rest of the night. Suddenly, Jimmy Garoppolo was missing his top two options (Sanders, George Kittle), so he couldn’t find anyone who was open. Garoppolo was strip-sacked twice as a result, while his pedestrian receivers dropped a whopping nine passes, one of which turned into an interception that set up a Seattle score.

It’s unclear if Sanders or Kittle will be able to play this week. If they can’t, I want no part of the 49ers. They’re just way too limited offensively without their top two play-makers. Meanwhile, it doesn’t appear as though tackles Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey were in the best shape Monday night. They don’t project well against Chandler Jones and Terrell Suggs on a short work week.

The 49ers also lost Matt Breida to an injury, so they’re going to lose some upside from their backfield. They’re still very deep at the position, but the Cardinals do a solid job against opposing ground attacks.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: I didn’t like Kyler Murray’s outlook when he had to go up against the 49ers two weeks ago, as I reasoned that his offensive line couldn’t possibly protect against San Francisco’s stalwart front. However, the Cardinals made some changes up front, putting Mason Cole at left guard and shifting Justin Pugh to right tackle. I didn’t think this would have a huge impact, but it did, as Murray had enough time on some plays to keep the Cardinals within striking distance.

The biggest surprise from that game was Kenyan Drake, who looked explosive against the 49ers. San Francisco has a run-funnel defense and can be exploited on the ground, so I imagine that the Cardinals will stick to their game plan of feeding the ball to Drake and possibly David Johnson if he happens to be healthier this week.

Consistently passing against San Francisco’s excellent secondary will prove to be difficult, however. Murray might end up being a great quarterback one day, but he’s not Russell Wilson yet, and even Wilson couldn’t avoid throwing an interception in overtime against the 49ers’ great defense.

RECAP: I’m not sure where I’m going with this game yet. I need clarity on a couple of items:

1. Will Kittle and Sanders play? If both are out, it’ll be very difficult to pick the 49ers.

2. What is happening with all of the money on Arizona? More than 80 percent of the action on the Cardinals, which is very strange. I don’t know if this is public or sharp money. If I learn what’s happening, I’ll provide an update.

I’m going to side with Arizona for zero units at the moment, given that the 49ers are coming off a tough overtime game on short rest. However, things could change later in the week. Check back, or follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: George Kittle is considered doubtful for this game. Matt Breida will also be out, while Emmanuel Sanders doesn’t seem likely to play. Given the lack of firepower the 49ers have, it could be difficult for them to cover such a high number. Unfortunately, that’s what everyone else seems to think.

SATURDAY NOTES: Emmanuel Sanders might end up playing this game, as he was listed as questionable despite not practicing all week. His presence would definitely keep me off Arizona. If he’s out, I may bet the Cardinals like both the sharps and casuals have been doing.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Emmanuel Sanders will reportedly play, which will almost certainly take me off betting Arizona. In fact, I’d think about switching my pick if it weren’t so late in the week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Emmanuel Sanders is, in fact, active. As I said Sunday morning, I’d switch to the 49ers if we had more time. I’m not going to bet this game.

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

The 49ers are coming off a grueling overtime game against an arch rival on short rest.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -11.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -14.
Computer Model: 49ers -10.
DVOA Spread: 49ers -11.5.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

There’s tons of money on the Cardinals from both the sharps and public.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 70% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

History: Cardinals have won 9 of the last 11 meetings.

Opening Line: 49ers -13.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Sunny, 76 degrees. Light wind.

Week 11 NFL Pick: 49ers 27, Cardinals 20
Cardinals +10 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Over 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
49ers 36, Cardinals 26

New England Patriots (8-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-4)
Line: Patriots by 5. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Nov. 17, 4:25 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

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NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: When we last saw the Patriots, they were struggling to score on the Ravens, as their horrible offensive line was finally being exposed. New England battled trash opponents all year, so it wasn’t a surprise that their first legitimate opponent of the year exposed their liability.

The Patriots will improve later in the year when they get their offensive linemen back from injury, as Marshall Newhouse and the other backups aren’t cutting it. I’m not sure how close Isaiah Wynn is to returning, but his presence would provide a big boost for the Patriots against the Eagles’ stalwart defensive line.

Still, Philadelphia figures to win in the trenches. It’ll shut down Sony Michel and apply heavy pressure on Tom Brady, who will have to throw to Julian Edelman and mediocre receivers like Mohamed Sanu. The Eagles’ secondary figures to be better, as some of their banged-up cornerbacks received a much-needed week off to heal.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Patriots’ defense was so dominant for the first half of the year that it was one of the highest-scoring fantasy players. This was the result of a very easy schedule, however, and we saw signs that New England’s stop unit isn’t all it was hyped up to be in the loss to the Ravens.

The Patriots had no answer for Lamar Jackson or Mark Ingram on the ground, as the Ravens trampled New England with its vicious ground attack. The Eagles also run the ball extremely well. Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders picked up their play prior to the bye, and Carson Wentz is always a threat to pick up first downs with his legs as well.

Wentz doesn’t have great receiving talent at his disposal, but he’ll be able to throw to his two tight ends. The Patriots have shown a bit of weakness against tight ends, so one of Zach Ertz or Dallas Goedert figures to have a strong performance.

RECAP: I’m curious to see what the status of the Patriots’ offensive line happens to be. If it’s the same unit that struggled against the Ravens, the Eagles will look somewhat attractive at +3.5. As mentioned, Philadelphia should be able to win in the trenches. Also, this spread is a touch too high. The line of -3.5 doesn’t hit frequently because the most likely result of any close football game is three. Thus, the Patriots and Eagles winning by three are the most likely results, and both outcomes would make New England -3.5 a loser.

Of course, the Patriots could win by four, six or seven, and that’s certainly possible, especially with Bill Belichick having extra time to prepare for this game. He and Brady will be at their best following a week off, so that’s not something I’d like to wager against. Then again, the Eagles are also coming off a bye, so that’ll be a big boost as well. Doug Pederson is 12-7 against the spread when having extra time to prepare.

With so many conflicting things, I’m probably not going to bet this game. I’m leaning toward the Eagles for now, but things could change if we get any news on New England’s offensive line.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This remains the toughest game of the week to handicap, even with Alshon Jeffery likely to be sidelined. I can’t make sense of this game, so I’ll just enjoy it without betting on it.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Eagles suddenly have several injuries, with Alshon Jeffery and Nigel Bradham out, and Jordan Howard questionable. Jeffery’s absence means that the Eagles will once again be without their top two receivers. They lost to the Falcons and Lions under those conditions back in September, so I thought about switching my pick to New England. With a better number, I’ll stick with the Eagles, but I’m not confident in the selection at all.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread is already at -5 at Bovada. I wonder if this line will keep rising. If it hits +6, I’ll consider a wager on the Eagles.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread didn’t move once it hit -5. I’m not going to bet this game, but I wanted to point out that DraftKings has an offer where if you bet at least $25 on the Eagles moneyline, you get $6 in free bets for every touchdown the Eagles score.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -2.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -3.
Computer Model: Patriots -7.
DVOA Spread: Patriots -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

This is a no-brainer for the public.

Percentage of money on New England: 80% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Patriots are 26-11 ATS on the road vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 243-74 as a starter (181-122 ATS).

Tom Brady is 40-19 ATS off a loss (6-11 ATS as -7 or more).

Patriots are 19-21 ATS as road favorites since 2013.

Doug Pederson is 12-7 ATS with extra time to prepare.

Opening Line: Patriots -3.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Cloudy, 43 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Patriots 23, Eagles 20
Eagles +5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 17, Eagles 10

Cincinnati Bengals (0-9) at Oakland Raiders (5-4)
Line: Raiders by 13. Total: 48.
Sunday, Nov. 17, 4:25 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Raiders.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 12 continues. Emmitt meets with a new ally to help him avenge Emmitt Snow Jr.’s death. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are wiped out by a mysterious force.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Trick-or-Treaters, 2019.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The primary reason why the 5-4 Raiders have surprised many this season is because of their excellent offensive line. The blocking unit has been superb when everyone has been healthy, and that was the case this past Thursday night versus the Chargers.

Derek Carr is playing well because of that terrific protection, and he shouldn’t be pressured very much by Cincinnati’s lackluster front. He’ll have all the time he needs to dissect the Bengals’ back seven, which is the worst in football, except for the Dolphins. The linebacking corps is horrible, while the defensive backfield is ravaged by injuries. Cincinnati won’t be able to cover Tyrell Williams or Darren Waller.

Josh Jacobs, meanwhile, doesn’t have as great of a matchup, as the Bengals are better against the run. However, they’re still not that great in that regard, so Jacobs should be able to pick up healthy chunks of yardage as the Raiders control the clock in the second half.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Ryan Finley had a disastrous debut last week. He was guilty of a pick-six and a strip-six, and he didn’t even know where the play clock was, which resulted in a delay-of-game penalty. Finley played well in the preseason, but he did not look prepared for real action.

This, however, is a far easier matchup. The Raiders don’t get to the quarterback very well, while their secondary has been destroyed by injuries. They were already missing personnel, and yet they saw Karl Joseph and Lamarcus Joyner get hurt against the Chargers. This should allow Finley to find Tyler Boyd, Auden Tate and Alex Erickson for decent gains.

The Raiders are far better versus the run than the pass, so Joe Mixon doesn’t figure to have a great performance as a runner. Perhaps the Bengals will use him as a receiver to attack the Raider linebackers, who happen to be very lackluster.

RECAP: The advance spread on this game was Oakland -8. It popped up 2.5 points because of what the public saw Thursday night, though the sharps have bet the Bengals down from +10.5 to +10.

Still, two points is a heavy overreaction to one game, especially with the line going through the key number of 10. The Raiders have a very solid offensive because of their great blocking, but their defense is a mess. The Bengals should be able to hang around because of all the injuries Oakland has on its stop unit. At the very least, Finley should be in a position to get a back-door score.

I really like the Bengals here, and I’m willing to bet two or three units on them. I love fading spread and national TV overreactions, and we get to do that by going against the Raiders. The sharps are doing that as well, as this spread is falling despite there being nearly 80-percent action on Oakland.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We still don’t know if Cordy Glenn or A.J. Green will play. We’ll know more details in the next update. Otherwise, I have nothing new to add regarding this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Cordy Glenn is finally off the injury report! It’s a miracle! That might get me to move to three units, though we’ll have to make sure he’s active prior to kickoff.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Wow, this spread is up to +13. I got a bad line (+10.5) in the Supercontest, but I haven’t bet this yet. I’ll be holding out hope for some sort of +14 because that’s a bit of a key number.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread didn’t move once it hit +13. I’d actually prefer +12.5 -105, which is available at both FanDuel and Heritage, as 13 isn’t a key number. I’m going to keep this at two units, as Cordy Glenn is inactive yet again. Hopefully the Bengals put some effort into this game, unlike the Texans and Redskins.

The Motivation. Edge: Bengals.

The Raiders are coming off a statement win over a divisional rival on national TV. It’s difficult to see them getting up for this game.

The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Raiders -13.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Raiders -8.
Computer Model: Raiders -10.
DVOA Spread: Raiders -13.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

Who is going to bet on Cincinnati?

Percentage of money on Oakland: 70% (8,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Raiders are 20-40 ATS after a win since 2009.

Opening Line: Raiders -10.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Sunny, 74 degrees. Light wind.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Raiders 31, Bengals 24
Bengals +13 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 17, Bengals 10

Chicago Bears (4-5) at Los Angeles Rams (5-4)
Line: Rams by 6. Total: 40.
Sunday, Nov. 17, 8:20 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Jared Goff tends to get frazzled when dealing with lots of pressure, and we saw that on full display last week against the Steelers. Goff could have committed six turnovers this past week, as Pittsburgh dominated the trenches.

The Bears aren’t as strong defensively this year, but they still have Khalil Mack and some other talented players in the front seven. They’ll put plenty of heat on Goff, whose offensive line will be even worse this week. Los Angeles already blocked poorly, and now it won’t even have center Brian Allen or right tackle Rob Havenstein, both of whom suffered injuries this past week.

Given the Rams’ severe blocking problems, I’m not sure they’ll be able to take advantage of Chicago’s major liability on the defensive side of the ball. The Bears have struggled to stop the run ever since losing Akiem Hicks to injury, but Todd Gurley won’t have the blocking or the volume to turn this opportunity into a big game.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Like Goff, Mitchell Trubisky has taken a step backward this year. It’s no coincidence that his offensive line isn’t playing nearly as well either. Thanks to Kyle Long’s injury and Charles Leno and Bobby Massie’s regression, the Bears haven’t blocked well this season, which has adversely affected Trubisky.

The Rams have several players who can place heavy amounts of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which will give the offensive line major fits. This will rattle Trubisky, who will continue to throw off his back foot. That will likely lead to more turnovers, especially given that Trubisky won’t be able to throw very effectively to Allen Robinson, who will be bottled up by Jalen Ramsey.

I don’t see the Bears running the ball well either. David Montgomery struggled last week, and the Rams have a similar run defense, metrics-wise, as Detroit does. It doesn’t help that teams can stack the box, forcing Trubisky to beat them downfield.

RECAP: These teams should be rated about evenly. Apparently, someone agrees, as more than 70 percent of the money is on the Bears. I’m don’t know if that’s public or sharp money, but I’m sure we’ll find out later in the week.

Either way, it’s a bummer. I thought the Bears looked terribly appealing at +7, but tons of action on the visitor has caused the line to fall to +6.5. That line still seems to high, as my projections say +4.5 is the right number. DVOA believes this line should be +4.

Any way you slice it, this spread is too high for a struggling quarterback playing behind the worst offensive line in the NFL, and that’s not even factoring in the Rams’ projected horrible home-field advantage. There will be far more Bears fans in the stands than Rams supporters.

I’m going to be on the Bears for at least three units. The unit count may increase depending on what we can determine from this lopsided betting action.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s still not clear if the sharps or the public has been betting Chicago. If this line drops to +6, there’s a good indication it’s the sharps. Either way, the Bears seem like the right play, as the Rams’ offensive line is a disaster.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bears still seem like a great play to me. The line has moved to +6 in some books, indicating that the sharps have been betting Chicago.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have bet this down to +6, which is the line in all books now. I’m considering locking this in at +6 +100 at Bookmaker, but I’ll feel bad if a +6.5 reappears.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Bears at +7, then +6.5, and now at +6. This spread has fallen to +5.5 in most books, though you can still get +6 -110 at 5Dimes. I love the Bears, especially with Robert Woods out of the lineup. This is a five-unit play for me.

The Motivation. Edge: Bears.

There will be far more Bears fans at this game than Rams fans. The Rams also have to battle the Ravens next week.

The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -4.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Rams -7.
Computer Model: Rams -6.
DVOA Spread: Rams -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 53% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Rams -8.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Clear, 77 degrees. Light wind.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Rams 20, Bears 17
Bears +6 (5 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$550
Bears +250 (0.5 Units) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$50
Under 40 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Rams 17, Bears 7

Kansas City Chiefs (6-4) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)
Line: Chiefs by 5.5. Total: 53.
Monday, Nov. 18, 8:15 PM
at Mexico City

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Mexico, where the San Angeles Chargers will take on the Kansas City Redskins. Guys, I was excited to go to the city of Mexico. I always heard about it when Mother made me study maps in our geography class in home school, and I heard that the Great Wall of China was built in Mexico so that the Native Americans wouldn’t get into our great country, so it was cool to go through the Great Wall of China.

Emmitt: Benny, this was real special. When I heard the Grape Wall of Chinatown was separate the city of Mexico and the city of United State, I knew we were in a real treat when he gonna go through the Grape Wall of Chinatown.

Reilly: Emmitt, I think it’s Great Wall of Chinatown; not Grape Wall of China Town. I know it’s not grapes because I feed Mother grapes when she gets back from Bingo on Tuesday nights.

Tollefson: Kevin, women should be feeding men grapes; not the other way around. In fact, I give an award to the best naked female cooker and cleaner of the night. The winner gets to feed me grapes!

Reilly: Tolly, I wish I could kidnap women and make them feed me grapes, but Mother says I’m not ready for a girlfriend yet.

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Guys, I just heard someone mention a girlfriend. I like girlfriends. What happens is that there’s a girl, and she’s your friend. So, she’s your girlfriend. Except, if she’s your girlfriend, she’s more than just a friend. Because she’s your girlfriend. That means she’s more than just a friend. I don’t know why they don’t call it girlmorethanjustafriend. Because that’s what it is. A girl who’s more than just your friend, even though she’s just your girlfriend.

Reilly: I’ll take your word for it, Jason, because I’ve never had a girlfriend. I’m 66, and Mother thinks that’s too young.

Fouts: And here’s what Kevin means by 66. That’s a number. Sixty-six, that is. It’s a number like one, two and three. And four and five and six. And seven and eight and nine. And 10 and 11 and 12. And 13 and 14 and 15. And 16 and 17 and 18. And 19 and 20 and 21. And 22 and 23 and 24. And 25 and 26 and 27. And 28 and 29 and 30. And 31 and 32 and 33. And 34 and 35 and 36. And 37 and 38 and 39. And 40 and 41 and 42. And 43 and 44 and 45. And 46 and 47 and 48. And 49 and 50 and 51. And 52 and 53 and 54. And 55 and 56 and 57. And 58 and 59 and 60. And 61 and 62 and 63. And 64 and 65, and of course, 66, because I already said 66. Should I keep going, or do you guys need more examples of what numbers are?

Wolfley: DAN, IT WOULD BE GREAT IF YOU COULD KEEP GOING. IN MY NATIVE LAND, WE DON’T HAVE THE NUMBERS 31, 41 AND 53. WE USED TO, BUT THE FOUR-EYED KNIVES STOLE THEM.

Reilly: Guys, enough of this nonsense. I promised Mother I would take a picture with New Daddy next to the Great Wall of China, but he said he’s allergic to camera flashes!

Cutler: Hey guys, pretend I’m allergic to camera flashes. I didn’t feel like taking a picture with that kid, whoever he is.

Reilly: New Daddy, you know who I am! I’m your new son! Please love me!

Cutler: Nah.

Tollefson: Hey, isn’t this Herm’s time to ramble about something?

Reilly: Oh, hahahahaha! Almost forgot! I made sure he was detained at the border. I put some of Mother’s guns in his bags!

Charles Davis: Kevin, it’s great that you’re talking about guns, Kevin. Let’s discuss what sort of guns there are, Kevin. How about we begin with handguns, Kevin? Let’s talk about long guns, Kevin. What about manual guns, Kevin? What if we chat about pump action guns, Kevin? Could we dabble into lever action guns, Kevin? Why not discuss semi-automatic guns, Kevin? Can you name another type of gun, Kevin? You can do it, Kevin. If you do, Kevin, I’ll sell you my soul for free, Kevin.

Reilly: Automatic!

Charles Davis: Sorry, Kevin, you didn’t specify what automatic is, Kevin. If you said automatic guns, Kevin, that would be right, Kevin. But you didn’t specify what type of automatic, Kevin.

Reilly: WHAT!? WE WERE TALKING ABOUT GUNS! THIS SHOULD TOTALLY COUNT, YOU A**HOLE! I WANT YOUR SOUL, AND I’M GOING TO DO EVERYTHING IN MY POWER TO GET IT, IF IT’S THE LAST THING I DO BESIDES FEED MOTHER GRAPES AFTER BINGO!!! We’ll be back after this!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes was a bit rusty in his return last week, as he nearly had a couple of interceptions. However, he was mostly his old self, as he torched the Titans for 446 yards on 36-of-50 passing.

Mahomes should be even better in his second game, especially when considering that he’ll be playing a worse defense this week. The Chargers have an injury-ravaged stop unit missing three safeties and some other defenders. The only viable player the Chargers have in their secondary at the moment is Casey Hayward, and I don’t trust him to stay with Tyreek Hill. Both Hill and Sammy Watkins figure to produce very well, as does Travis Kelce against a very slow linebacking corps.

The Chiefs don’t run the ball nearly as well. They would’ve had a nice matchup against a Charger defense missing several interior players, but they should be back this week to help bottle up Damien Williams or perhaps LeSean McCoy.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: I was hopeful for the Chiefs’ defense after their performance against the Vikings in which they shut down both Stefon Diggs and Dalvin Cook. That changed last week, as Tennessee’s offense couldn’t be stopped, particularly in the second half. This does not bode well for this matchup, as the Chiefs will be going against Philip Rivers instead of Ryan Tannehill; Melvin Gordon instead of Derrick Henry; and Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry instead of A.J. Brown and Jonnu Smith.

However, that’s not the entire story. The Chargers’ offensive line is far inferior to Tennessee’s blocking unit. The Chargers already had a poor front, and now they might be missing both of their tackles (Russell Okung, Sam Tevi) in addition to their center, as the two tackles suffered injuries against the Raiders. Rivers is going to see a ton of pressure if three starting linemen are injured.

Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler seem to have good matchups as well. The Chiefs have struggled versus the run all year, but I’m not sure the Chargers will be able to open running lanes for their talented backs if three starters are out up front.

RECAP: I’d have interest in the Chargers if their offensive line were intact, save for center Mike Pouncey. However, it’s looking like they’ll be missing three starters up front. If so, I don’t know how they’ll be able to hang with the Chiefs, who should be able to score plenty of points against the pitiful San Angeles defense.

I’ll be monitoring the injury report closely to see if the Chargers will, in fact, be down three offensive linemen. If so, I’ll bet a healthy amount on the Chiefs. I already liked them with Mahomes coming off a loss, so this could be a three-unit wager or so.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It doesn’t seem as though people can’t make up their minds regarding this game, as this spread keeps bouncing between 3.5 and four. I don’t think we’ll see Kansas City -3, but it’s worth being patient just in case it happens. We at least know the public loves the Chiefs, and so do I, given that Russell Okung has yet to practice this week.

SATURDAY NOTES: I heard someone say that the Chargers have a great advantage this week because they’ve been training in the Colorado mountains somewhere to prepare for the altitude of Mexico City. I don’t know if this means the Chargers will suddenly get their three offensive linemen back from injury, though Russell Okung is suddenly questionable after we assumed he’d miss this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line is back to -4. It keeps bouncing back and forth. I’ll be looking for news on Russell Okung.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public bet this up all the way to -6, and some sharp action took the Chargers at +6. I’d love the Chargers at +6 if they had Russell Okung active, but Okung, Sam Tevi and Mike Pouncey are all out, which means the Chargers will be missing THREE starting offensive linemen. I’ll stick with the Chiefs, who are still available at -5.5 at Bookmaker or 5Dimes.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -6.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -3.
Computer Model: Chiefs -4.
DVOA Spread: Chiefs -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

The public likes the Chiefs a lot.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 73% (7,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Chiefs have won 9 of the last 10 meetings.

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 63 degrees. Light wind.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Chiefs 27, Chargers 20
Chiefs -5.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 53 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 24, Chargers 17

week 11 NFL Picks – Early Games
Steelers at Browns, Cowboys at Lions, Jaguars at Colts, Bills at Dolphins, Broncos at Vikings, Saints at Buccaneers, Jets at Redskins, Falcons at Panthers, Texans at Ravens

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline: Buccaneers, Texans and Bears (see those pick capsules for specific plays)

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)