NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2019): 10-6 (+$140)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2019): 10-6 (+$1,365)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2019): 12-3 (+$1,240)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2019): 8-7 (+$1,665)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2019): 9-5 (+$2,505)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2019): 8-6 (+$1,130)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2019): 8-7 (+$435)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2019): 3-9-1 (-$770)

NFL Picks (2019): 87-65-2 (+$8,730)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 10, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 10 NFL Picks – Early Games

Miami Dolphins (1-7) at Indianapolis Colts (5-3)
Line: Colts by 11. Total: 44.
Sunday, Nov. 10, 4:05 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

The 2019 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are here!

To read about this, check out the 2019 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts via the link!

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins have made it known that they’re willing to tank. They’ve been trying to win lately, and finally earned a victory last week against a Jets squad that was so banged up that they had to dress injured players. However, the Dolphins haven’t changed their minds about tanking. Apparently, they’re aware that they can still obtain the No. 1 overall pick if they lose the rest of their games, so I guess that’s what the plan is.

Besides, I think we’ve had enough of this Ryan Fitzpatrick facade. Fitzpatrick has played too well for too many weeks now, which means he’s due to throw two pick-sixes and break the hearts of those who are foolish enough to bet against him for too long of a span. Fitzpatrick has a great chance to do that in this game, as he’ll be pressured very heavily by Justin Houston and the rest of Indianapolis’ defensive front. The Dolphins have the worst offensive line in the NFL, so they won’t be able to protect their bearded quarterback.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: We don’t know which quarterback will play for the Colts, as Jacoby Brissett suffered a sprained MCL. With a bye on the horizon, and the Dolphins upcoming this week, the Colts should perhaps sit Brissett in this contest.

Aside from his pick-six, Brian Hoyer did a good job in relief of Brissett last week. He moved the chains consistently against a potent Steelers defense without having the luxury of throwing to T.Y. Hilton. It’s expected that Hilton will be sidelined once again, which means more of Indianapolis’ receivers will drop passes. However, the Dolphins have a horrible defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone this year, so Hoyer should have another solid performance.

RECAP: The public thinks this spread is too high. I don’t think it’s high enough. My line is Indianapolis -16.5. DVOA thinks this should be -15.5. The computer model says -13 is the correct number. Either way, the Colts aren’t favored by enough.

I’ll repeat what I wrote earlier: This Fitzpatrick nonsense isn’t going to last much longer. He’s a reckless quarterback, and he’s going to throw multiple pick-sixes in an upcoming contest. Perhaps it’ll be this one, as the Colts are the best team the Dolphins will face since Week 3 against Dallas. Since then, every team the Dolphins have battled currently doesn’t possess a winning record, save for the overrated Bills.

There’s a good chance I’ll be betting this game. I won’t go heavy on it, but the standard, two-unit Dolphins fade makes sense to me if we can get +10.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We still don’t know if Jacoby Brissett will play, but it doesn’t matter to me. This game has Ryan Fitzpatrick meltdown written all over it following the team’s initial (and only) win. This is the first time the Dolphins are playing a good team since Dallas back in Week 3, and the final score will reflect that.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jacoby Brissett has been ruled out, but I view this as a positive, as I didn’t want him to play if he’s not 100 percent. I think I’ll be on the Colts for two units if we end up getting -10.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread has risen to -11. That’s not a key number, or anything, so that won’t impact what I’m doing.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has remained at -11 in most books. I’m fine with putting two units on the Colts. I don’t see how the Dolphins can compete with the first good team they’ve battled since Week 3. The best number I see is -11 -108 at Heritage, but -11 -110 is pretty much the same.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -13.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Colts -15.5.
Computer Model: Colts -14.
DVOA Spread: Colts -15.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Slight lean on the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 65% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Colts -16.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Colts 31, Dolphins 17
Colts -11 -108 (2 Units) – Heritage — Incorrect; -$215
Over 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Dolphins 16, Colts 12

Carolina Panthers (5-3) at Green Bay Packers (7-2)
Line: Packers by 4.5. Total: 48.
Sunday, Nov. 10, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I have no idea why the Packers were so offensively challenged last week. They matched up very well with a Charger defense missing six starters, including the top two defensive tackles. All the Packers needed to do was run the ball with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, but they refused to do that. Even when the score was 3-0 and 6-0 in the early going, the Packers passed way more often, and this allowed the Chargers to utilize Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram on the same side in an unusual formation.

Perhaps the Packers will learn from their lesson and avoid a similar game plan the Titans utilized last week when they gave Derrick Henry three touches in the opening half. The Panthers are weaker against the run than the pass, so Tennessee’s unwillingness to exploit that liability was mind-boggling. The Packers should be able to do that.

In fact, Green Bay needs to in order to protect Aaron Rodgers. The offensive line, usually stout, struggled mightily last week when trying to block Bosa and Ingram. The Panthers have a terrific pass rush that could give Rodgers problems.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Packers have also been gashed on the ground at times this year, most notably against the Eagles in their first loss this season. The Chargers repeated Philadelphia’s formula, ramming Melvin Gordon down Green Bay’s throat.

If the Packers had trouble containing Gordon and Austin Ekeler, as well as Josh Jacobs a couple of weeks earlier, what are they going to do about Christian McCaffrey? The MVP candidate should continue his excellent year by dancing around Green Bay’s linebacking corps, all while ripping through a defensive line that has missed Mike Daniels this year.

McCaffrey should be able to put Kyle Allen into favorable down-and-distance situations, allowing him to avoid Green Bay’s strong pass rush. The Packers have blown plenty of coverages lately, so there will be some opportunity for Allen.

RECAP: One angle I love in the NFL is to bet on elite quarterbacks coming off a loss. Rodgers and his team weren’t focused in the slightest against the Chargers, and they were blown out of the water as a result. I imagine Rodgers will be far more focused following that defeat. It’s worth noting that Rodgers is 28-15 against the spread after a loss, and 17-8 against the spread when not favored by 7.5 or more in those situations.

The Packers’ loss to the Chargers has also created some line value. The advance spread on this game was Green Bay -6.5. Now, it’s -5, which means we’re getting the key number of six. As you may know from the Seahawks-Buccaneers result, six is a very important number in the NFL.

It’s unusual that we can get the Packers as a non-large favorite without the public pounding them. Let’s take advantage of that by betting the Packers against the Panthers, who were demolished the last time they played on the road against one of the better teams in the NFL.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A couple of key Panthers haven’t practiced yet this week – James Bradberry, Vernon Butler, Greg “Mr. Reliable” Little – so that could be a reason why this line has risen to -5.5 in some books.

SATURDAY NOTES: James Bradberry and Vernon Butler are questionable after returning to practice Friday, albeit on a limited basis. This is a bummer, as it looked like the Panthers would be a great fade with two of their top three defensive tackles out of the lineup. With some sharp money coming in on the Panthers on Saturday, I’m going to drop the unit count to two.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The inactives will be key, as the Panthers have some important players who may not play. Check back around 3:45 for my official selection.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Vernon Butler is active, though James Bradberry is out. This will be a two-unit selection. I’m going to sacrifice the five, since that’s not a likely outcome, to get good juice on -5.5 (-104 at Bookmaker).

The Motivation. Edge: Packers.

The Packers are coming off an embarrassing loss, so I expect Aaron Rodgers to be very focused, especially with a bye coming up next.

The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -5.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -6.5.
Computer Model: Packers -6.
DVOA Spread: Packers -5.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
Slight lean on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 63% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Aaron Rodgers is 93-64 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 28-15 ATS after a loss (11-7 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Opening Line: Packers -6.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Cloudy, 35 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Packers 34, Panthers 17
Packers -5.5 -105 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
Over 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 24, Panthers 16

Los Angeles Rams (5-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4)
Line: Rams by 4.5. Total: 43.
Sunday, Nov. 10, 4:25 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 12 continues. Emmitt receives news via Baltimore Raven that his bastard son, Emmitt Snow Jr., has passed away.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called the Mark Zuckerberg Testimony.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: I can understand why so many people are betting the Rams. Jared Goff versus Mason Rudolph seems like such a no-brainer. However, I don’t think this matchup is that lopsided, though I’m not exactly saying that Goff and Rudloph are close in talent.

The matchup and circumstances for Goff are just very difficult. The Rams have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, so it’s not a surprise that they’ve struggled whenever they’ve battled good pass rushes. Jared Goff gets very flustered when seeing lots of heat in his face, and he’ll have to deal with plenty of that in this contest. Between the prolific T.J. Watt, the improved Bud Dupree, and the dominant Cameron Heyward, the Steelers have plenty of players to rattle Goff.

The Rams won’t have much success running the ball either. Todd Gurley is not what he used to be, and he has to battle a Pittsburgh run defense that ranks rather well.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Rams had some major issues defensively as well earlier in the season, which were particularly exposed against the Buccaneers. The Rams made a move to fix this, as they acquired Jalen Ramsey from the Jaguars. Ramsey is an immense upgrade over both Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib. Ramsey will easily be able to put the clamps on JuJu Smith-Schuster.

However, I’m not sure that will affect the Steelers because they won last week without throwing to Smith-Schuster very much. They attacked the Colts via passes to Jaylen Samuels, which should once again be the strategy against a questionable linebacking corps.

The Steelers will need to move the chains this way because the Rams are pretty stout versus the run, ranking fourth in DVOA in that regard. James Conner may not even be able to play, and I wouldn’t trust Samuels or Trey Edmunds to have much success on the ground, given their obvious talent limitations.

RECAP: This spread is alarmingly incorrect. With the Steelers earning three points for home-field advantage, and the Rams getting a point for being off a bye, this line says that the Rams are six points better than the Steelers, which is absolutely ridiculous.

As far as I’m concerned, the Rams and Steelers are close to even. I think this line should be a pick ’em, and DVOA agrees. That may sound absurd to public bettors who are pounding the Rams, but it’s true. The Rams have underperformed this year, even losing outright to the Buccaneers at home. Their defense isn’t the same without Ndamukong Suh, while their offensive line is a disaster. The Steelers have the superior talent everywhere except quarterback and the skill positions.

I actually considered the Steelers as my NFL Pick of the Month, but I have one fear concerning this game, and that would be Sean McVay coming off a bye. McVay is one of the top coaches in the NFL, so he may have come up with some new wrinkles or solutions to help the Rams improve. But if we’re betting on all known information, there’s no question that the Steelers are the right side at anything above +2.5.

This won’t be an eight-unit selections, sadly, but I’m willing to slice the wager in half.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Brandin Cooks is out, which is another reason to like the Steelers. One injury to a receiver wouldn’t be enough for me to raise my unit count, but it doesn’t hurt!

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread has risen to -4 likely because JuJu Smith-Schuster aggravated his foot in practice this week. He’s questionable to play in this game, but his absence won’t affect my pick very much, as he wasn’t going to be a big part of the game plan anyway. The big edge in this contest continues to be Pittsburgh’s pass rush versus the Rams’ horrible offensive line and Jared Goff’s inability to deal with heavy pressure.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like JuJu Smith-Schuster will play, so I’m going to lock this in now at +4.5 at Bovada.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I locked this in earlier this morning. Doing didn’t really matter, as this line has remained at +4.5 even though JuJu Smith-Schuster is active.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Rams -3.5.
Computer Model: Rams -4.
DVOA Spread: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

The Rams are getting lots of action.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 73% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Rams -3.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 51 degrees. Light wind.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Steelers 27, Rams 24
Steelers +4.5 (4 Units) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$400
Steelers +180 (0.5 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$90
Over 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 17, Rams 12

Minnesota Vikings (6-2) at Dallas Cowboys (5-3)
Line: Cowboys by 3. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Nov. 10, 8:20 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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MINNESOTA OFFENSE: This is a primetime game against a winning team, so you know where I’m going with this. Kirk Cousins tends to choke in games featuring either aspect, so this is a very poor confluence for him.

We’ll certainly find out if Cousins will choke under pressure yet again, as Cousins will have to carry his team. The Cowboys missed Leighton Vander Esch against the Giants, and yet they still managed to clamp down on Saquon Barkley. If Dallas could stop Barkley, it should be able to limit Dalvin Cook. Cousins will be forced into throwing frequently, unlike what has transpired in some games earlier in the season.

The Cowboys don’t have a very good secondary, so Cousins will have some opportunities. However, he could be missing Adam Thielen, who barely played this past week because he aggravated his hamstring injury. The Cowboys should be able to deal with just Stefon Diggs, so Cousins will have to look elsewhere, just like he did last week when he overthrew his other targets.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys usually love to feed Ezekiel Elliott and move their offense through him, but they’ll have success doing the opposite in this game. Minnesota’s cornerbacks have been an enormous weakness this season, and that continued to be the case this past week against Matt Moore, who was able to complete most of his passes.

Dak Prescott has a very favorable matchup against the Vikings. His receivers will get open versus the cornerbacks, especially Xavier Rhodes, who is playing injured at the moment. Prescott will also have great protection behind his terrific offensive line despite going up against Minnesota’s monstrous pass rush.

Running won’t work as well, given that the Vikings are better at defending the rush. However, Dallas’ effective passing will open up opportunities for Elliott, who is matchup-proof.

RECAP: Not only do we get to fade Cousins in a primetime game; we also get to do so at a great price. This spread of Dallas -3 is incorrect. My number, as well as the computer model, say that Dallas -4 is what this spread should be, and that even pales in comparison to DVOA’s Dallas -6.

The Cowboys are one of the better teams in the NFL when completely healthy. They’re just 5-3 because they lost games when they were very banged up. Had their offensive linemen not gotten injured, the Cowboys would be 6-2 or 7-1 right now. If that were the case, they’d be -4, or even -6 against the overrated Vikings.

I love Dallas in this game. We’re getting the better team at just -3, and we’re able to fade a perennial choker. This sounds like a four- or a five-unit wager to me.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Adam Thielen is likely to sit out, which is huge because the Cowboys will be able to take away one receiver with Byron Jones. Kirk Cousins needs all the help he can get, so I’m even more bearish on his outlook now.

SATURDAY NOTES: Leighton Vander Esch will be back for the Cowboys, which is huge. Conversely, the Vikings will be missing a force in the middle of their defense, as Linval Joseph will be out. This will make it easier for Ezekiel Elliott to rip off big gains against a usually stout Minnesota run defense.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m still holding out hope for a good -3. A -3 -120 has popped up at Bookmaker. I may lock in -3 if we see -115 juice somewhere. I’ll have an update at 3:45 if one is needed; otherwise, I’ll have final thoughts prior to kickoff.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was hoping we’d see -115 juice, but that hasn’t appeared. The best line is still -3 -120 at Bookmaker (you can register here.) Given that we have to pay -120 juice for this wager, I’m going to make this a four-unit pick.

The Motivation. Edge: Cowboys.

Kirk Cousins in primetime…

The Spread. Edge: Cowboys.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -4.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -3.
Computer Model: Cowboys -3.
DVOA Spread: Cowboys -6.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 57% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

The underdog is 88-60 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Mike Zimmer is 57-31 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Cowboys are 22-33 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

Cowboys are 19-29 ATS when favored after a win since 2010.

Jason Garrett is 1-6 ATS after Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Cowboys -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Cowboys 24, Vikings 17
Cowboys -3 -120 (4 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$480
Under 48.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Vikings 28, Cowboys 24

Seattle Seahawks (7-2) at San Francisco 49ers (8-0)
Line: 49ers by 6. Total: 47.5.
Monday, Nov. 11, 8:15 PM

The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Diego, where the San Diego 49ers will be taking on the Seattle Seahawks. Guys, my plan to get Herm and Charles Davis into trouble by saying they have collusion with the city of Ukraine. Now, I saw how the government interviewed Mark Zingerbread in congress and they made him look bad by asking smart questions, so I’m going to do the same! Herm and Charles Davis won’t know what hit them! Here’s an example: When you’re driving on the road, how many minorities have collected your tolls at toll booths!?

Emmitt: Benny, this real difficultness question to give a question to. When I go to the denture, he give me a toothbrush, and he collect my tooth but I not really sure how many of my tooth a majorities.

Reilly: Emmitt, don’t answer that question. It’s for Herm and Charles Davis because it’ll expose them as racists!

Tollefson: Kevin, no one really cares if someone’s racist or not. For example, when I kidnap women to become my sex and cleaning slaves, I do not care if they happen to be racist or not. I’m gentlemanly enough to know that women are entitled to their own opinions, just as long as they cook and clean my house naked.

Reilly: Tolly, I know what you mean. Mother sometimes cleans our house naked, and sometimes she makes me vacuum the living room naked. But that’s beside the point. Here’s another test question: When walking by people in the street, do you walk by minorities a lot?

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. I heard someone mention walking. I like walking. It’s real good. When you walk, you move your feet, and you walk. Now, some people will confuse this with running. Running is something different. When you run, you walk real fast. Except, you don’t really walk. Because you’re walking. And not running. Because walking is the opposite of running. Except walking and running are almost the same. Except they’re real different.

Reilly: Why do you idiots keep answering questions I’ve prepared for Herm and Charles Davis! Stop answering my questions!

Fouts: And here’s what Kevin means by stopping to answer questions. When you start answering questions, you start doing it. You don’t stop. But when you stop answering questions, you’re doing the opposite of starting to answer questions. So, if you start answering questions, and then you stop answering questions, you have done one and the other in a specific order, and that order has to be like that because you can’t stop answering questions after you start answering them!

Wolfley: DAN, IT DEPENDS WHERE YOU ARE IN THIS GREAT WORLD. IN MY HOME LAND, PEOPLE ASK ANSWERS AND ANSWER WITH QUESTIONS. I IMAGINE THIS SOUNDS AS CONFUSING AS A THREE-TOED CUCUMBER WEARING SNOW SHOES ON THE BEACH, BUT IT MAKES SENSE WHERE I’M FROM.

Reilly: Shut up! No one cares about your stupid world! New Daddy, tell these idiots to shut up so I can expose Herm and Charles Davis as racists!

Cutler: OK, hey guys, that loud kid wants to do something, so can you stop doing whatever you’re doing so I can finally take a nap? Thanks.

Reilly: Thanks, New Daddy! I knew you’d pull through! Now, Herm, riddle me this! When telemarketers have called you, how many of them were of the minority-plus community?

Herm: Minority-plus!? What’s minority plus! Don’t know no minority-plus! Never heard of minority-plus! Heard of minority! Not minority-plus! Heard of plus! Not minority-plus! But plus is real! Like minus! Heard of minus! Not minority-minus! Maybe minority-times table though! But not minority-division sign! Don’t know about minority-plus though! Sounds fake! Not real! Not fake! I mean, not real! I mean, umm… uhh…

Reilly: Hahahaha I’ve exposed you as a racist with smart questions like congress did with Zingerbread! Now, it’s time for Charles Davis! Charles Davis, when you’ve been ice skating, did you skate on white ice or minority ice?

Charles Davis: Kevin, it’s nice you’re talking about the elements, Kevin. Ice is one of the elements, Kevin. There’s also fire, Kevin. What about wind, Kevin? That’s an element, Kevin. How about earth, Kevin? How about you name an element, Kevin. And let’s make it an element you’ve discussed with a minority, Kevin.

Reilly: Water, maybe?

Charles Davis: Kevin, ice is just frozen water, Kevin. I was looking for elements like lithium or boron or carbon, Kevin. Looks like you got that question wrong, Kevin, and it looks like you don’t even discuss elements with minorities, Kevin. That makes you a racist, Kevin!

Reilly: WHAT THE F**K, HOW DID THIS TURN BACK ON ME!? I’M SUPPOSED TO BE THE ONE ACCUSING YOU OF BEING RACIST BY ASKING YOU NONSENSICAL QUESTIONS! THIS IS BULLS**T! I HATE YOU AND I’LL KILL YOU, AHHHHHH!!! We’ll be back after this!

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Russell Wilson is the favorite to be MVP at the moment, but that could change after this game. Wilson is going up against the best defense in the NFL, which possesses a ridiculous pass rush. Nick Bosa, Dee Ford and DeForest Buckner are all elite defensive linemen, and they all have favorable matchups against a Seattle front that isn’t completely intact, as center Justin Britt is sidelined with an injury.

Wilson usually faces pressure, but not like this. It’s going to be very difficult for him to locate any of his receivers for big gains, so he’ll have to settle for short passes on most downs. He’ll be forced into scrambling for some first downs as well.

The one weakness of San Francisco’s defense is the linebacking corps in the wake of Kwon Alexander’s injury. It would benefit the Seahawks to get Chris Carson in space to expose this liability, though that’s not exactly his forte.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: It’s amazing that the 49ers have been able to keep winning despite missing both of their starting offensive tackles. It sounds like they’ll get Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey back this week, however. The two will help keep the pocket clean for Jimmy Garoppolo, though the backup tackles could probably do a good job on Seattle’s edge rushers not named Jadeveon Clowney. The former Texan is the only consistent pass rusher on Seattle’s roster, so having Staley and McGlinchey back will help keep him out of the backfield.

Garoppolo should have plenty of time, as usual, to take advantage of this terrific matchup. The Seahawks’ secondary, save for Shaq Griffin, is atrocious. Garoppolo has improved each week since his slow start, and he’s made a big leap recently, thanks to the addition of Emmanuel Sanders. Seattle doesn’t have the personnel to stop him, or George Kittle, for that matter.

The 49ers will also run effectively. The Seahawks are stronger versus the rush than the pass, but a healthy offensive line, plus the possible return of elite fullback Kyle Juszczyk will aid Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida.

RECAP: The Seahawks are getting tons of public action, yet this spread is too low. My number is San Francisco -9. The computer model is equally as bullish (-9), while DVOA is less so (-7.5). Either way, this line isn’t high enough.

I’d like the 49ers in the first place, but Seattle coming off an exhausting overtime win strengthens my willingness to bet them.

I’m going to put two or three units on the 49ers. I’d go higher, but I’m worried about Wilson throwing a back-door touchdown. Wilson is a phenomenal quarterback who usually keeps games close. His team is wildly outmatched here, but Wilson is certainly capable of some magic to get within the number late in this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The computer model update now says the 49ers should be favored by 10, which is nice. It won’t affect my unit count, but I’m glad it is more bullish on San Francisco’s chances of covering.

SATURDAY NOTES: George Kittle is doubtful. His absence won’t affect my pick on this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: No changes yet. This will probably be a two-unit wager, but we’ll see.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: I was planning on making this a two-unit wager, but 5Dimes has -5.5 available. A half point may not be a big deal to most, but if it involves one of the three primary key numbers (3, 6, 7), it most definitely is. There’s great value with San Francisco -5.5, and it sort of mitigates Russell Wilson throwing a touchdown to cut the lead from 13 to six late in the game. I’m terrified of Wilson throwing the back door, but perhaps I’ll bet Seattle in the second half if San Francisco is up big at intermission. Nevertheless, with Bookmaker (a sharp book) pushing the juice up from -6 -110 to -6 -115, I’m going to lock in -5.5 at 5Dimes for three units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I hope all of you got the -5.5 that was available earlier in the afternoon. That’s long gone, as most books have this spread listed as -6.5, thanks to some late sharp action on San Francisco. I really like the 49ers at -5.5 or -6 (you can get -6 -115 at Bovada.) The 49ers, with extra time to prepare, should be able to win easily, given that they’re getting everyone except George Kittle back from injury. The Wilson back-door touchdown is a concern, but like I said, I’ll be looking to bet Seattle in the second half if the 49ers get out to a large lead.

The Motivation. Edge: 49ers.

The Seahawks are coming off an exhausting overtime win.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -9.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -6.
Computer Model: 49ers -10.
DVOA Spread: 49ers -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
People aren’t buying the 49ers quite yet.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 64% (68,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

History: Home Team has won 17 of the last 21 meetings (Seahawks won 10 of last 11).

Russell Wilson is 21-7 ATS as an underdog.

Russell Wilson is 18-7 ATS in night games.

49ers are 38-22 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 71 degrees. Light wind.

Week 10 NFL Pick: 49ers 31, Seahawks 21
49ers -5.5 (3 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$330
Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 27, 49ers 24

week 10 NFL Picks – Early Games
Chargers at Raiders, Lions at Bears, Ravens at Bengals, Bills at Browns, Chiefs at Titans, Falcons at Saints, Giants at Jets, Cardinals at Buccaneers

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline: Cardinals and Steelers (see those pick capsules for specific plays)

NFL Picks - Dec. 18

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 18

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 16

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 15, 2024): 8-7-1 (+$930)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 15, 2024): 4-2 (+$390)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 15, 2024): 1-1 (-$30)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 15, 2024): 10-5-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 15, 2024): +$570

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 117-109-9, 51.8% (-$3,210)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 29-37-1, 43.9% (-$2,035)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22, 53.2% (+$475)
2024 Season Over-Under: 111-108-5, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$990

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,538-3,261-205, 52.0% (+$18,460)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,136-1,022-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 578-507-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,970-2,942-79 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-7	Bears: 6-7	Bucs: 8-6	49ers: 8-6
Eagles: 8-6	Lions: 11-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 10-4
Giants: 5-8	Packers: 10-3	Panthers: 5-9	Rams: 7-7
Redskins: 6-7	Vikings: 6-7	Saints: 6-8	Seahawks: 8-5

Bills: 6-8	Bengals: 3-11	Colts: 7-7	Broncos: 9-5
Dolphins: 6-8	Browns: 5-9	Jaguars: 5-7	Chargers: 7-6
Jets: 8-6	Ravens: 7-6	Texans: 6-7	Chiefs: 5-8
Patriots: 8-4	Steelers: 7-7	Titans: 8-5	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 28-35 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 25-20 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 40-36 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 26-37 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 46-64 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-10 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-20 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)