NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2019): 10-6 (+$140)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2019): 10-6 (+$1,365)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2019): 12-3 (+$1,240)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2019): 8-7 (+$1,665)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2019): 9-5 (+$2,505)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2019): 8-6 (+$1,130)

NFL Picks (2019): 76-49-1 (+$9,065)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Sept. 27, 11:35 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 8 NFL Picks – Early Games







Carolina Panthers (4-2) at San Francisco 49ers (6-0)
Line: 49ers by 4.5. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Oct. 27, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Panthers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers just acquired Emmanuel Sanders – check my NFL Trade Grades for my thoughts on the deal – but I don’t know how much of an impact he’ll have right away. In-season trades for receivers fail more often than succeed, and it’s not like Sanders will have much time to learn the playbook ahead of this game.

What’s more significant, in my opinion, is that the state of San Francisco’s offensive line. Under normal circumstances, the 49ers have one of the best blocking units in the NFL. However, they’re down their top two tackles at the moment. Their previous two opponents weren’t able to take advantage of this, but I believe the Panthers will be able to. Carolina has a ferocious pass rush and should be able to put heavy pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo as a result.

I don’t expect the 49ers’ ground attack to work very well either. That would be different if Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey were on the field, but the Panthers’ defensive line should be able to win in the trenches under the current circumstances.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The 49ers, of course, should be able to win in the trenches on this side of the ball. They have the best pass rush in the NFL, thanks to Nick Bosa, Dee Ford and DeForest Buckner. The Panthers don’t have a poor offensive line, but they won’t be able to block the 49ers.

I don’t see Christian McCaffrey having much running room, but McCaffrey could have success as a receiver out of the backfield. If there’s one slight weakness of San Francisco’s elite defense, it’s the linebacking corps. The 49ers haven’t battled a top-notch pass-catching back this year, so I’m interested to see how they handle McCaffrey.

The Panthers will need McCaffrey to perform well because it’s difficult to trust Kyle Allen. I know that Allen has yet to lose or throw an interception, but he’s had fumbling problems and could lose a ball or two if he’s stuck in constant long-yardage situations.

RECAP: Despite the Sanders acquisition, I like the Panthers at +6. They have a great matchup edge in this game with San Francisco’s two offensive tackles out of the lineup. They also have a motivational edge, given that the 49ers have to play on Thursday night in Week 9.

I imagine I’ll be on the Panthers for about three units. I may increase the unit count if the spread rises, which is a possibility in the wake of the Sanders trade. It would be amazing to get +7, which would make Carolina appealing in what should be a tight, low-scoring grinder.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread hasn’t changed in the wake of the Sanders trade, which is disappointing. I was hoping to get +7, but it doesn’t seem as though that’ll happen.

SATURDAY NOTES: So much for this spread going up. It has actually dropped to +5, as sharp money is on Carolina. The 49ers will be missing their top two tackles, which is an area the Panthers will surely exploit.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread has dropped to +4 in some books, thanks to sharp money. You can still get +4.5 at BetUS or 5Dimes, so I’d lock that in now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread is now +4 everywhere, as the sharps have been all over Carolina. I would still bet three units on the Panthers at +4.




The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.
The 49ers have to play this upcoming Thursday night.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -4.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -6.
Computer Model: 49ers -9.
DVOA Spread: 49ers -6.5.


The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
A decent lean on the Panthers, but much of this is sharp money.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 67% (20,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Sunny, 70 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

Week 8 NFL Pick: 49ers 24, Panthers 23
Panthers +4.5 (3 Units) – BetUS/5Dimes — Incorrect; -$330
Panthers +200 (0.5 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$50
Over 40.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
49ers 51, Panthers 13

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Oakland Raiders (3-3) at Houston Texans (4-3)
Line: Texans by 6. Total: 52.
Sunday, Oct. 27, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 12 continues. Emmitt Snow Jr. tries to warn everyone about the horrors he saw in the Battle of Softhouse. Meanwhile, Emmitt’s Patriots inch closer to the playoffs.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: I loved the Colts to win last week because of their pass rush. Deshaun Watson has been Jekyll and Hyde this year. His play has depended on what sort of a pass rush he has battled, thanks to how horrible his offensive line is. Watson, when getting great protection, sliced through the Atlanta and Kansas City defenses with ease. When he has battled teams that can get after the quarterback, he performed poorly against the Jaguars, Panthers and Colts.

The Raiders don’t put consistent heat on opposing signal-callers. Rookie Maxx Crosby is OK, but that’s about it. Watson should have plenty of time to dissect a secondary that was just torched against Aaron Rodgers. And here’s the kicker: Oakland just traded its top cornerback, Gareon Conley, away to Houston!

Aside from Carlos Hyde, it’s difficult to find a Houston player who has a bad matchup on this side of the ball. Even with Will Fuller out, the Texan receivers won’t have any sort of difficulty getting open.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: It’s easy to understand why the Texans traded for Conley. He hasn’t played very well this year, as he hasn’t been 100 percent because of injuries. Yet, he’ll still be a massive upgrade for a secondary that hasn’t been able to stop any receivers, including Zach Pascal, who logged more than 100 receiving yards against them last week.

Conley will help, but the Raiders should be able to move the ball aerially, especially if Tyrell Williams returns from injury. Meanwhile, Darren Waller has emerged as a monstrous target over the middle of the field. The Texans aren’t bad against tight ends, but Waller is a freak of nature who is very difficult to deal with.

Meanwhile, it’ll be interesting to see if the Raiders can establish Josh Jacobs. The Texans are prolific against the run, but Jacobs has run like a bull lately, and the Raiders have one of the top offensive lines in the NFL if right tackle Trent Brown can suit up.

RECAP: The Conley trade is interesting. Because Conley will be playing his former team right away, he’ll be able to provide insight to the coaching staff; not just of the personnel, but the audibles as well. If the Raiders don’t change their signals, they will be in huge trouble!

Conley’s presence for Houston will provide a strategic advantage for the Texans, while his absence for the Raiders creates a big matchup edge going against Oakland. Furthermore, this spread doesn’t seem accurate. This line is on the wrong side of -7 per my calculations, while the computer model thinks Houston -10 is the correct number.

I’m a bit fearful of a back-door touchdown at the end, but I like the Texans to cover for a few units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve been searching for some sort of injury report regarding this game because this spread plummeted from -7 to -6 at the Westgate, and most other sportsbooks are listing this at -6.5. I haven’t been able to find any reason for this line drop, so unless something is revealed, I assume this is just sharp money on Oakland.

SATURDAY NOTES: All of the Raiders will play, which is a bummer because the Texans are in a good spot with Gareon Conley potentially knowing all of Oakland’s signals. With so much money coming in on the Texans, I won’t be betting this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s been some sharp money on the Raiders, which I disagree with. This spread is now -6 in most books. I don’t think we’ll see it, but I wonder if -5.5 becomes available later in the day. If so, I may bet on Houston.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As expected, a -5.5 hasn’t appeared, but -6 -105 is available at Bookmaker and BetUS. I’m not going to bet this game.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -7.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -6.5.
Computer Model: Texans -10.
DVOA Spread: Texans -5.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
Tons of late money on the host.

Percentage of money on Houston: 70% (14,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Texans -5.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Texans 27, Raiders 17
Texans -6 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 52 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Texans 27, Raiders 24

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Cleveland Browns (2-4) at New England Patriots (7-0)
Line: Patriots by 10. Total: 43.
Sunday, Oct. 27, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called the Worst Song Ever Made.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots’ offense stalled a bit more than people expected against the Giants back in Week 6, but the extra time to prepare allowed Bill Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to devise a great game plan against the Jets. New England moved the chains with ease this past Monday night.

The matchup against the Browns will be more difficult. Cleveland will be fielding a healthy secondary for the first time since September, as cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams will finally be back from injury. Meanwhile, Myles Garrett and the rest of the defensive line should be able to hound Brady without getting assistance from the blitz. The Patriots have some injuries on the offensive line for Garrett and company to take advantage of.

Of course, expecting Brady to struggle is foolish. He and his coaching staff will find the weakness of Cleveland’s defense and exploit it. I imagine Belichick, Brady and McDaniels will be looking at the Browns’ linebackers and finding a way for some of their offensive players to beat them.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: While Brady doesn’t have an ideal matchup, it’s still better than what Baker Mayfield will face. Mayfield hasn’t been seeing the field well this year; when he’s gone to his second read and beyond, he has struggled. That’s not a good liability when battling the Patriots. Belichick embarrassed one 2018 first-round quarterback, and I imagine he’ll do the same thing to Mayfield.

Something else going against Mayfield is the projected pass rush he’ll see. The Patriots get after the quarterback well, and Cleveland has some major problems on the offensive line, thanks to Kevin Zeitler’s departure and the incompetence of the two tackles.

Meanwhile, Mayfield’s top weapons both have difficult matchups. Odell Beckham Jr. will be asked to get open against the best cornerback in the NFL, Stephon Gilmore, while Nick Chubb will be running against a ground defense that has been absolutely stout this year.

RECAP: Something I haven’t yet written about Mayfield is that he’s dealing with a hip injury at the moment. He’s been practicing and will suit up, but Mayfield may not be 100 percent. Given that, as well as the mental challenge of going up against Belichick’s defense, the young quarterback could be in trouble. It would be nice if Mayfield had a sharp coach who could help him overcome these problems, but Freddie Kitchens doesn’t qualify as such. In fact, Belichick versus Kitchens might be the NFL coaching mismatch of the century.

It sucks that we lost some line value with the Patriots – the advance spread was New England -11 – but we’re not going through any key numbers with the line move. With that in mind, I like the Patriots for at least a couple of units. Betting Belichick versus Kitchens and Mayfield just seems too good to pass up.

By the way, I’ve already seen some people bring up the fact that the Browns have a big edge because they’re coming off a bye, while the Patriots played Monday night. I debunked this last week in the Packers-Raiders write-up. Teams coming off Monday night games are 28-12 against the spread versus opponents off byes. I hate trends, and I’m not betting on the Patriots because of this, but I just wanted to mention it to keep you from falling into the trap that some people are talking themselves into.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s nothing new to add here despite making a note that public action has increased on the Patriots. That shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.

SATURDAY NOTES: I once again have nothing new to add regarding this game, outside of a decreased unit count as a result of all the public action on New England.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There will be heavy rain, apparently, in this game. Perhaps that’s why the sharps have been betting the Browns. At -10, the Patriots look appealing for a wager. Check back around 3:45 for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread is New England -10 -108 at Heritage and -10 -113 at Bookmaker (or -10 -110 at the Westgate if you live in Nevada.) I think the Patriots are worth a small wager. I’ll bet one unit at Heritage, and I’ll round to -110 for easier tracking.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -10.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -11.
Computer Model: Patriots -13.
DVOA Spread: Patriots -11.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
Tons of action on the host.

Percentage of money on New England: 71% (18,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Tom Brady is 242-73 as a starter (180-121 ATS).

Tom Brady is 37-36 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more (26-29 ATS since November 2007).

Opening Line: Patriots -11.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Rain, 52 degrees. Light wind.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Browns 14
Patriots -10 (1 Unit) – Heritage/Bookmaker — Correct; +$100
Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 27, Browns 13

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Green Bay Packers (6-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)
Line: Packers by 5.5. Total: 48.
Sunday, Oct. 27, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I don’t know what the hell the Broncos were doing on either side of the ball last Thursday, but they couldn’t pressure Matt Moore at all once Patrick Mahomes left the game. I’ll be shocked if the Packers perform similarly. Thanks to Za’Darius and Preston Smith, Green Bay puts great pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so the Packers will place plenty of heat on the immobile Moore, who will be playing behind an offensive line missing several starters.

This obviously doesn’t bode well for Moore, but he can have some mismatches to perhaps take advantage of if he gets time in the pocket. The Packers had tremendous problems covering Darren Waller this past week, as the secondary blew lots of coverages. Perhaps Travis Kelce can get back on track after some underwhelming performances. Tyreek Hill, meanwhile, has game-breaking speed and can run for a touchdown whenever he gets his hands on the ball, as we saw last week.

The Chiefs also have the edge in the running game on this side of the ball as well, given that the Packers have struggled to stop the rush. However, given Moore’s presence, I imagine that containing LeSean McCoy will be easier than normal, as the Packers will be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage with Moore under center.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers was unstoppable this past Sunday. He accounted for as many touchdowns (6) as incompletions, throwing for 429 yards in the process. If he continues to play this way, the Packers will be extremely difficult to defeat.

Oakland’s poor defense had a hand in Rodgers playing so well for sure, but the Chiefs aren’t much better on this side of the ball. Kansas City has surrendered big plays to receivers this year, so Rodgers should be able to torch the opposition, especially if Davante Adams returns from injury.

The Packers will be able to establish a strong ground game as well. Kansas City’s inability to stop the run is well documented, as the team is missing two of its top interior defensive linemen, including Chris Jones. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams should be able to exploit a very favorable matchup.

RECAP: This is an extremely difficult game to handicap. I’d like to offer strong arguments for both sides…

Reasons to bet the Chiefs: I love wagering on good teams playing with a backup quarterback for the first time. The Chiefs will be determined to prove that they can win witout Mahomes. This spread is also way off. My numbers say Green Bay -1 is the right number, while the computer model says Green Bay -2 is correct. Even DVOA, which is more bullish on the Packers, has Green Bay -4 as the spread, which is just barely short of the -4.5 we’re seeing. Also, don’t forget that Andy Reid has enjoyed extra time to prepare for this game.

Reasons to bet the Packers: The Chiefs have way too many injuries. I wrote above that I love wagering on good teams playing with a backup quarterback for the first time. Well, unless some players return from injury, I don’t know if Kansas City qualifies as a good team. With that in mind, it’s often profitable to bet bad teams using backup quarterbacks. Just look at the Jets this year, who covered just one spread with Luke Falk, and that was just because of a stupid Jarrett Stidham pick-six. Also, betting against any elite quarterback who happens to be on fire seems like a horrible mistake.

Unless something changes on the injury report, I’m leaning toward selecting the Packers, despite the spread being very inflated. I just don’t see how the Chiefs can keep up with Rodgers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I may end up betting on the Chiefs. I was thinking about this game, and it reminded me of another “impossible” contest for Andy Reid when he had to start A.J. Feeley against the undefeated Patriots in 2007. The Eagles were 21-point underdogs, yet only lost by three because Reid was able to coach up Feeley to go 27-of-42 for 345 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. If Feeley could do that against the undefeated Patriots, why can’t Matt Moore versus a defense that blew many coverages last week? If the injury report is a bit more favorable for the Chiefs than I expected, this might even be a three- or four-unit play.

SATURDAY NOTES: This is a rough spot for the Chiefs. They’re going to be down two starting offensive linemen, three starting defensive linemen and one of their starting cornerbacks. Oh, and Patrick Mahomes, as well. Had it just been Mahomes, I’d suggest a large wager on the Chiefs, but they’re missing too many players. Still, I’m inclined to switch my pick to the Chiefs.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread has risen to -5.5 at Bovada. Perhaps a +6 will be available prior to kickoff. I’ll bet the Chiefs at that number.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There is no +6 -110, but there are a bunch of +6s available at expensive juice. It’s +6 -125 at Bookmaker and +6 -123 at 5Dimes. The best +6 is available for -120 at Bovada, which I think is worth a very small wager. I don’t love the Chiefs, but I think they’re worth a one-unit bet at +6 -120.


The Motivation. Edge: Chiefs.
Good teams often play very well in the first game their starter is out.


The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -1.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -3.5 (Mahomes).
Computer Model: Packers -2.
DVOA Spread: Packers -4.


The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
No one wants to bet on Matt Moore?

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 71% (10,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Aaron Rodgers is 92-63 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 21-16 ATS as an underdog.

Chiefs are 12-29 ATS as home underdogs of 1-5.5 points since 2007.

Opening Line: Packers -3.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 50 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Packers 23, Chiefs 20
Chiefs +6 -120 (1 Unit) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$120
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 31, Chiefs 24

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Miami Dolphins (0-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4)
Line: Steelers by 14. Total: 43.5.
Monday, Oct. 28, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Pittsburgh, a.k.a. the toilet bowl of the state of Pennsylvania! Tonight, we have the Pittsburgh Steelers against the Miami Hurricanes. Guys, the quarterback from the Steelers is someone named Devil Hodges. He’s going by the nickname Duck because he’s the duck-calling champion. This is absolute bulls**t!

Emmitt: Benny, I agree with you that this stupid. How can you call duck. Do he have a telephone and call the duck on the phone? I never seened a duck use a telephone before, but maybe this just because I do not watch duck all the times.

Reilly: Emmitt, that’s not why it’s bulls**t. Mother said I’m the best duck caller in the world when we were on a picnic the other day and I was massaging her feet.

Tollefson: Kevin, who the hell cares about calling ducks? I care about calling chicks. Chicks, as in women, and calling them as in kidnapping them after I chloroform them.

Reilly: Tolly, believe me, I’d like to chloroform women like you do, but I’d have to hide them in my closet because Mother wouldn’t allow them in the house. But we’re getting off topic here. The point I’m making is that this Devil Hodges guy stole my award for being the best duck caller. I’m also the best dog caller, cat caller and squirrel caller.

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Did I hear someone mention squirrel caller? This is when there is a squirrel, and someone calls them, which is why it’s called a squirrel caller. Because you have a squirrel. And then, you have the caller. The caller calls the squirrel, and then the squirrel answers or doesn’t answer, but it doesn’t matter. Because the caller calls the squirrel, and that’s why he’s the squirrel caller.

Reilly: Shut up, idiot, you’re going to give my secrets away! New Daddy, tell Jason Witten to stop giving my secrets away!

Cutler: Hey, Josh Wilson, stop doing, umm, meh, I don’t care.

Reilly: New Daddy, come on! How am I going to be the best animal caller in the world if people don’t realize it!?

Fouts: And here’s what Kevin means by animal caller. You have an animal. And here’s what I mean by animal. An animal is like a pig. But not just a pig. It could also be a dog. And it could also be a giraffe. And then there’s a duck. And a horse. And a llama. And a Rosie O’Donnell. And a cheese grater. Wait, I’ve gotten off track, and I’m not sure what we’re talking about anymore.

Wolfley: DAN, I DON’T MEAN TO BRAG, BUT I’M THE BEST CHEESE GRATER CALLER IN THE WORLD, ESPECIALLY IF THEY HAVE THREE EYES AND MUSTACHE. I CALL THE CHEESE GRATERS AND THEY COME TO ME ALMOST INSTANTLY.

Reilly: Shut up, idiots. Just shut up! I’m the best caller in the world, not Wolfley, or Tolly, or Devil Hodges. Me!!!

Herm: Herm can call ducks! Herm can call horses! Herm can call cheese graters! Herm can call them all! Herm hasn’t talked in a while! Herm’s got a lot to say! Herm-

Reilly: Who let this idiot talk!? I wasn’t paying attention because I was so angry!

Charles Davis: Kevin, you talked about being angry, Kevin. Let’s talk about more emotions, Kevin. How about sad, Kevin? Sad as in you’re sad because you’re not the best duck caller anymore, Kevin. How about funny, Kevin? Funny as in it’s funny that you think you’re better than Duck Hodges at anything, Kevin. What about jealous, Kevin? Jealous of Devlin Hodges, aren’t you, Kevin? Kevin, how about we name some emotions, Kevin, and then compare you to Devlin Hodges, Kevin?

Reilly: NOPE, STILL ANGRY, AND I’M GOING TO SHOVE THIS MICROPHONE DOWN YOUR THROAT, CHARLES DAVIS! F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS! We’ll be back after this!

ONE-SIDED MATCHUP: As I’ve written before, I’m not providing analysis for the Dolphins. They’re the worst team in NFL history, and they’re not trying to win. There’s no point in writing a breakdown for their games.

RECAP: I can’t believe what I’m seeing. About 90 percent of the betting action is on the Dolphins. Apparently, bettors think the Dolphins just traded for Dan Marino!

This spread may seem high to those betting on the Dolphins. I don’t think it’s high enough. My number for this is Pittsburgh -16.5. The computer model says -18 is correct, and so does DVOA. Sure, the Steelers are starting either Duck Hodges or Mason Rudolph, but it doesn’t matter because they are better at every other position when compared to Miami, and it’s not remotely close in many areas.

I’m going back to my standard two-unit fade of the Dolphins. I initially listed the Bills as a two-unit pick over Miami last week, but backed off once I learned that Josh Allen was not 100 percent because of his hand injury. Unless another random injury comes along, I’ll be betting against the Dolphins this time.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: These teams haven’t even had a real practice yet, so I have nothing new to add. I imagine I’ll remain on the Steelers for two units.

SATURDAY NOTES: If you’re looking for an edge on this game, home teams under official Ron Torbert are 25-41 against the spread. That won’t put me on the Dolphins or anything. I just thought it was interesting. I’m still on the Steelers for two units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still can’t believe the public is all over the Dolphins. So weird.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: I must admit that I’m tempted to increase this to four units, only because a win would get me across $1,000 for the sixth week in a row. I was considering it, but the action on this game has evened out, thanks to some late money on Pittsburgh. Perhaps I’ll add more units later in the day, but I’m going to lock in -14 -105 at Bookmaker, just in case this spread goes back up to -14.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I thought that Xavien Howard’s absence would maybe push me to increase my wager, but I can’t do it. This week has been comprised of back-door covers – the Matt Schaub four-unit loss was painful – so I could see that happen tonight. I like the Steelers enough for two units, but I don’t love them enough to double my wager. I’ll have to settle for a non-$1,000 week, but if we win this game, we’ll be +$860 or so, which sounds good to me. This spread hasn’t moved, by the way, as it’s still -14 -105 at Bookmaker and Bovada.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
The Dolphins are trying to lose, but it’s unclear how focused the Steelers will be.


The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -16.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -16.5.
Computer Model: Steelers -18.
DVOA Spread: Steelers -18.


The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.
The Dolphins +14.5 was free money to early bettors, apparently.

Percentage of money on Miami: 61% (20,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Steelers are 11-5 ATS at home on Monday Night Football the previous 16 instances.

Opening Line: Steelers -17.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Clear, 54 degrees. Light wind.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Steelers 34, Dolphins 13
Steelers -14 -105 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$210
Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 27, Dolphins 14

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week 8 NFL Picks – Early Games
Redskins at Vikings, Seahawks at Falcons, Eagles at Bills, Chargers at Bears, Giants at Lions, Buccaneers at Titans, Bengals at Rams, Cardinals at Saints, Jets at Jaguars, Broncos at Colts




Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 8 NFL Picks – Early Games



NFL Picks - Nov. 15


2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13


NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12


Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4




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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2
Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5
Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)