NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2019): 10-6 (+$140)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2019): 10-6 (+$1,365)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2019): 12-3 (+$1,240)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2019): 8-7 (+$1,665)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2019): 9-5 (+$2,505)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2019): 8-6 (+$1,130)

NFL Picks (2019): 76-49-1 (+$9,065)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Sept. 27, 11:35 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 8 NFL Picks – Late Games







Washington Redskins (1-6) at Minnesota Vikings (5-2)
Line: Vikings by 17. Total: 42.
Thursday, Oct. 24, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

Week 7 Recap: We’ve been having a great year, and that continued in Week 7. We finished 8-6 (+$1,130), which marked the fifth consecutive week we’ve been up $1,000 or more. We never even had four consecutive weeks like that prior to this season. Getting a sixth week of $1,000-plus will put us into five figures for the year, so let’s do it!

By the way, if you want to support this site, check out my new book!



You can buy A Safety and a Field Goal here.

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Kirk Cousins certainly had this game circled when the schedule was initially released in April. He’ll obviously want revenge against a franchise that refused to pay him the money he wanted. Granted, the Redskins were smart to let him go, but Cousins obviously doesn’t believe that.

Cousins has an easy matchup to make sure he can thrive in his quest for revenge. The Redskins’ secondary has struggled mightily this year, so even though Adam Thielen is expected to be out, Cousins should be able to dissect Washington’s defensive backfield with passes to Stefon Diggs and Olabisi Johnson, who had a nice performance last week.

Dalvin Cook figures to have a nice game as well. The Redskins are better versus the run than the pass, and not only by default. Their defensive line is pretty stout. However, the linebackers can be easily beaten in coverage, so I like Cook as a receiver out of the backfield.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Kirk Cousins isn’t the only quarterback looking for revenge in this game. Case Keenum will want to beat his former team as well. Unfortunately for Keenum, he doesn’t have the running game and defense to support him, which was the case for him two years ago when he led Minnesota to the NFC Championship.

Keenum possesses a terrific receiver in Terry McLaurin. The standout rookie struggled last week against an elite secondary, but this is a much easier matchup. Xavier Rhodes has played poorly this year because he’s dealing with an injury, and Minnesota surrendered four touchdowns to Marvin Jones this past Sunday. I like McLaurin’s chances of rebounding this week.

Adrian Peterson, conversely, won’t have as good of a showing. Minnesota’s defensive front is strong, and it just bottled up Kerryon Johnson last week. Peterson has been running better since Washington’s injured offensive linemen returned to action, but this is just too difficult of a matchup.

RECAP: I made a couple of mistakes last week despite the +$1,130 result. One was betting the Broncos on Thursday night. For some reason, I ignored one of my Thursday night principles, which is to pick the better team in Thursday night games.

The Vikings are obviously the better team, and if you’re wondering if they can be selected even though they’re favored by such a high number, the answer is yes. To give you an idea of how the superior team has dominated on such short rest, favorites of 14 or more are 5-1 against the spread on Thursday night. This is obviously a very small sample size, but it fits the logic that the far superior team will outplay the inferior squad by a great margin if neither has any time to prepare.

And if you’re still having doubts, consider the coaching matchup: Mike Zimmer versus Bill Callahan. I think that should sell you that the Vikings are worth a small play at the very least.

My Week 7 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m going to remain on the Vikings for one unit. This spread has risen to -17, but Minnesota should still cover that number.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no public or sharp action to report. There’s no consensus opinion on this high spread. I still like the Vikings for one unit. The best line is at Bookmaker, which is -17 +100.




The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found, as both quarterbacks want revenge.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -12.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Vikings -14.
Computer Model: Vikings -12.
DVOA Spread: Vikings -13.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 58% (42,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Mike Zimmer is 57-29 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Vikings are 31-12 ATS at home since 2014.

Opening Line: Vikings -14.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Vikings 34, Redskins 10
Vikings -17 +100 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$100
Over 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Vikings 19, Redskins 9

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New York Giants (2-5) at Detroit Lions (2-3-1)
Line: Lions by 6.5. Total: 49.5.
Sunday, Oct. 27, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’s mind-boggling how dumb the media can be sometimes. Journalists asked Pat Shurmur if he thought about benching Daniel Jones following the loss to Arizona. This notion never even was a possibility for me, so I was dumbfounded when I heard this being asked. I don’t understand how anyone can come to the conclusion that this would be a good idea.

Jones has dealt with issues regarding turnovers, thanks to shoddy ball security. We referenced this as a problem for him during the preseason, but he’s a rookie. He has to endure these sorts of mistakes to improve in the future. Fortunately for Jones, he’ll be matched up against a defense that lost several players to injury this past week. The Lions saw top cornerback Darius Slay and linebacker Jarrad Davis leave the field, which made stopping Kirk Cousins very difficult. If Slay is out or banged up, it’ll allow some opportunities for Sterling Shepard, who is expected back this week. Meanwhile, the Lions will have difficulty covering the middle of the field, so Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley should be able to generate plenty of yardage in space. Golden Tate figures to have a nice showing in a revenge game as well.

The greatest loss the Lions suffered versus Minnesota was seeing Snacks Harrison get knocked out of the game. Containing Dalvin Cook became impossible as well after that, so Barkley will have a monstrous performance if Harrison misses this contest.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Giants, of course, know a thing or two about surrendering big performances to opposing offensive players. Their secondary is especially atrocious. Grant Haley is a horrible slot receiver, and yet first-rounder DeAndre Baker is even worse. I question if Baker has even heard of the sport called football before, given how dreadful he’s been in his brief NFL career thus far.

This obviously bodes well for Kenny Golladay, Danny Amendola and Marvin “Al Bundy” Jones, who has now scored four touchdowns in a single game twice in his career. Matthew Stafford shouldn’t have any sort of an issue finding his talented receivers, as well as tight end T.J. Hockenson, for substantial gains, as the Giants don’t pressure the quarterback well.

The Giants are better versus the run, but only by default. Chase Edmonds just had a big game against them, but Edmonds is better than what the Lions have if Kerryon Johnson can’t suit up. Johnson is yet another Detroit player who got hurt last week. If he can’t go, it’ll be Ty Johnson, Tra Carson and J.D. McKissic. I don’t see any of them having much success.

RECAP: This is obviously a situation where looking at the injury report will be imperative. The Lions suffered so many injuries versus the Vikings, so I’m eager to see if they’ll suit up.

Depending on how the injury report shakes out, I may bet the Giants for several units. I think we’re getting a bit of value with them, as my calculated spread is New York +6. One point is significant here, as seven and six are the second- and third-most prominent key numbers in the NFL.

I’m going to mark this down as TBA units for now. I’ll have an official unit count on Saturday evening or Sunday morning. Check back, or follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m very curious to see what the Friday injury report looks like. I may bet several units on the Giants if several Detroit players are out.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping for a nice play on the Giants if the Lions were going to be missing several defensive starters. Darius Slay and Mike Daniels are both out, but that’s not enough. Snacks Harrison is questionable, but should play after practicing fully Friday. Da’Shawn Hand will be on the field as well, as will the other players who got banged up last week. It really sucks that we can’t take advantage of this after the Lions’ injuries screwed us out of five units (6.5 with the juice) last week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, it’s a shame that the Lions are so healthy. I have no strong opinion on this game. The sharps haven’t touched this either.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -6.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Lions -7.5.
Computer Model: Lions -10.
DVOA Spread: Lions -7.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 56% (20,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Lions -7.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Giants 20
Giants +6.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 49.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Lions 31, Giants 26

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4) at Tennessee Titans (3-4)
Line: Titans by 2.5. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Oct. 27, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 38-44-3 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…

Here were the teams getting the most bets this week:

Chiefs -3.5

Jaguars -3

49ers -10

Vikings +1.5

Rams -3

Eagles +3

The books crushed the public in Week 6, but the public rebounded in Week 7, as four of the six highest-bet sides covered. Sportsbooks are now now 19-16-1 on lopsided bets this year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Packers -4.5

Rams -13

Seahawks -3.5

Chargers +4

Saints -9.5

Dolphins +14.5

There are six lopsided-bet games this week. Two are underdogs, including the Dolphins!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: This is the first meeting between these teams since the 2015 opener when the Titans blasted the Buccaneers. Marcus Mariota looked like the second coming of Joe Montana, while Jameis Winston was dreadful, going 16-of-33 for 210 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, with one of his scores coming in garbage time. And yet, Winston is the 2015 rookie still playing for his team, as Mariota has been benched.

I’m not sure how long Winston will last. In fact, he may have been benched already if the Buccaneers had a viable backup like Tennessee does. Winston, of course, makes tons of mistakes, and that could continue to fester in this contest if he doesn’t get his offensive linemen back from injury. The Buccaneers didn’t have right tackle Demar Dotson and right guard Alex Cappa on the field versus the Panthers, and they paid the price. The bye week hasn’t been all that kind to them, as the two linemen still aren’t practicing. This will be especially problematic in this matchup versus Cameron Wake and Jurrell Casey.

I can’t stress how important it’ll be for the Buccaneers to have Dotson and Cappa on the field, as heavy pressure will force Winston into more mistakes. The Titans have some holes in their defense for Winston to exploit – namely, cornerback Malcolm Butler and the linebacking corps if Jayon Brown is out again – but it won’t matter if Winston has pass rushers breathing down his neck.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Speaking of offensive lines, I discussed last week how important it was for the Titans to remove guard Nate Davis from the lineup. Davis had been the worst starting offensive linemen in the NFL, excluding whatever the Dolphins have on the field. The Titans used someone named Jamil Douglas at that position last week instead. Douglas wasn’t great, but he was far better than the human turnstile that Davis happened to be.

This made a huge difference for Ryan Tannehill, who had adequate pressure on most drives to connect with his young, talented receivers, Corey Davis and A.J. Brown. They have an even better matchup this week, as the Tampa Bay defense is a funnel to big production for receivers and tight ends. The Buccaneers’ secondary is an abomination, so Davis, Brown and Delanie Walker (if he plays) should all have huge performances.

Someone who won’t do nearly as well is Derrick Henry. The running back I’ve compared to Bowser from Super Mario Kart won’t fare well in this contest, as the Buccaneers’ great defensive line has clamped down on the most talented runners in the NFL this year, including Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara.

RECAP: Anyone who has been reading this site for a while knows about my infatuation with fading public underdogs. The Buccaneers qualify as such for now, though that could change as the week progresses.

Something that’s more important will be the status of Tampa’s right side of the offensive line. If both Dotson and Cappa are out, I’ll likely bet the Titans for a couple of units at the minimum. This is another game that I’ll have to mark down as “TBA units,” unfortunately, but I imagine that I’ll be on Tennessee in some capacity.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It looks like there’s sharp money on the Titans, as this juice is shifting upward. I’m waiting on the Tampa Bay injury report to confirm a large wager on the host.

SATURDAY NOTES: It turns out that the Buccaneers will be missing just one starting lineman for sure, as Alex Cappa is out. Unfortunately, Demar Dotson is questionable after being limited all week. The good news is that there’s a ton of action coming in on the Buccaneers, making them a massive public dog. The Titans look like a great play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread hasn’t moved, as there continues to be public money on the Buccaneers. The best spread I can find is Tennessee -2.5 -105 at Bovada.


The Motivation. Edge: Titans.
The Titans are a massive public underdog.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Titans -2.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Titans -2.5.
Computer Model: Titans -5.
DVOA Spread: Titans -2.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
The Buccaneers are a public underdog.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 65% (14,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Road Team is 93-58 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Titans are 24-15 ATS in non-conference home games.

Opening Line: Titans -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 61 degrees. Light wind.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Titans 23, Buccaneers 17
Titans -2.5 -105 (4 Units) – Bovada — Correct; +$400
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Titans 27, Buccaneers 23

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Los Angeles Chargers (2-5) at Chicago Bears (3-3)
Line: Bears by 4. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Oct. 27, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. Here’s some hate mail from last week:



I thought being up about $9,000 through seven weeks was impressive, but wow, this guy is tough to please!

Here’s some hate directed toward someone posting on the comment board:



It takes someone truly miserable to go out of their way and spend time criticizing they have met or never will meet.

Here’s some more:



Seriously, what happened to these people to make them so miserable? It’s sad that they’re acting like this. They must be truly horrible to be around in real life. They likely have no friends, which is why they have time to post on message boards like this.

Meanwhile, someone else with no life has been down-voting everyone. I’ve come up with a possible reason why:



I mean that. Hey losers, touching your mom’s feet and driving her to Bingo on Wednesday nights doesn’t mean that you’re interacting with a woman!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: If you’re a Bears fan, imagine for a second that your general manager didn’t trade up for Mitchell Trubisky, and instead moved down a couple of spots and acquired either Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes. The Bears would be undefeated right now if they had either quarterback, provided Mahomes didn’t get hurt. Instead, Chicago fans get to boo Trubisky, who constantly overshot his receivers and tossed ineffective dump-off passes versus the Saints last week.

Trubisky blows, and I expect him to struggle once again for a couple of reasons, beyond the fact that he is a miserable quarterback. First, the Chargers have a very talented cornerback in Casey Hayward, who will be able to clamp down on Trubisky’s only viable receiver, Allen Robinson. Second, the Bears’ offensive line has regressed. Don’t expect ESPN or the NFL Network to ever mention this, but Chicago’s poor blocking has been one of the primary reasons for the team’s decline. Thanks to Kyle Long suffering an injury, and tackles Charles Leno and Bobby Massie inexplicably regressing, the Bears’ great blocking unit from a year ago has been putrid in 2019.

That said, David Montgomery could find some running lanes if the Chargers don’t get their top two defensive tackles back from injury. Justin Jones and Brandon Mebane were missed last week, which allowed Derrick Henry to have a strong performance. Getting at least one of them back will ensure that Montgomery doesn’t pick up where Henry left off.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Speaking of mediocre running backs, Melvin Gordon has hurt the Chargers since he returned from his holdout. I don’t know what Gordon was doing during his time off, but he certainly wasn’t working out and staying in shape. He likely was just eating Oreos and Cheetos on the couch like I do on Saturday afternoons, except I’m not an athlete like he is, so he shouldn’t be doing things like that. It was very telling that the Chargers improved offensively in the fourth quarter last week when Austin Ekeler saw more snaps.

I wonder if the Chargers have learned from their mistake. If so, they’ll feature Ekeler more once again. This should pan out, as another reason why the Bears have disappointed this year is their defensive line. They’re missing Akiem Hicks, which is enormous. Hicks is one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL, so it’s no surprise that his absence has made Chicago’s run defense decline by a wide margin.

Hicks’ injury isn’t the only issue the Bears’ defense has. Going into the year, I pointed out that losing slot cornerback Bryce Callahan was huge. Replacement Buster Skrine hasn’t been nearly as good, to put it nicely. Guess who Skrine will have to defend this week? Keenan Allen!

RECAP: This spread was San Angeles +4.5 when I went to bed last night. I assumed I could still get that number when I woke up, but the sharps had other ideas. The professional bettors have been all over the Chargers, driving this number down from +5 to +4.

I don’t always agree with the sharps, but they’re right on the money with their decision to bet the Chargers. The Bears are a shell of their former selves, and they won’t improve as long as Hicks is out and the offensive line continues to play poorly. Meanwhile, there’s a chance the Chargers will get a slew of players back from injury, including left tackle Russell Okung and the aforementioned defensive tackles.

Meanwhile, Philip Rivers will be getting more than a field goal for the first time all year. Rivers, as you might guess, has a terrific track record of covering as an underdog. He’s 25-12 against the spread as a road underdog of 3.5 or more in his career, which makes sense because he has a tendency to keep most games close. That has been the case this year, as every single Chargers loss has been decided by a touchdown or fewer.

I love the Chargers, and I’m planning on betting at least four units on them. In fact, I’m even considering them as my October NFL Pick of the Month. If the injury report is favorable for them, I’ll pull the trigger on the eight-unit wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jacob brought up an interesting point regarding this game in our picks video. The Bears have a revenge game against the Eagles coming up. Also, the Chicago fans are really turning on the team, which could creative a negative home-field environment, which could be harmful for the Bears. Meanwhile, there’s been some interesting line movement. There was some public and more sharp money driving this spread down to +3.5, but then there was sharp action on Chicago at -3.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s good news and bad news regarding the Chargers’ injury report, which is what I’ve been waiting for. The good news is that Russell Okung isn’t even on the injury report anymore, while Melvin Ingram practiced fully Friday and could be on the field to help expose Chicago’s poor offensive tackles. The bad news is that both Brandon Mebane and Justin Jones are out again, which will make the Chargers very weak versus the run. Also, Keenan Allen is questionable after failing to practice Thursday and Friday. I’m OK with betting the Chargers without Allen; if San Angeles were also to miss Mike Williams or Hunter Henry, we’d have a problem, but Philip Rivers still has enough weapons to stay within striking distance, which is something he has done in all of his losses thus far.

I’m going to lock this in now for five units at BetUS before the line falls to +3.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Melvin Ingram is inactive, which is a bummer, but Keenan Allen will suit up. Sharp money has dropped this spread down to +3.5, so I hope you locked in +4 last night. I would bet the Chargers at +3.5 for four units instead of five.


The Motivation. Edge: Chargers.
As Jacob pointed out on our picks video, the Bears have a playoff revenge game coming up versus Philadelphia. Also, the Chicago fans seem to be turning on their team, which could create a negative home-field advantage.


The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -3.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bears -5.5.
Computer Model: Bears -6.
DVOA Spread: Bears -3.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
There’s money on the Chargers, but some of it is sharp action.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 57% (15,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Philip Rivers is 25-12 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 or more.

Opening Line: Bears -4.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 52 degrees. Light wind.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Chargers 20, Bears 17
Chargers +4 (5 Units) – BetUS — Correct; +$500
Chargers +170 (0.5 Units) – BetUS — Correct; +$85
Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chargers 17, Bears 16

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Seattle Seahawks (5-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-6)
Line: Seahawks by 8.5. Total: 50.
Sunday, Oct. 27, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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ATLANTA OFFENSE: There’s no spread on this game at the moment because it’s unclear if Matt Ryan will play. Ryan sprained his ankle last week, so he wasn’t able to accumulate his trademark garbage-time yardage versus the Rams. This was a shame for any of us who rostered him in DraftKings (i.e., me.)

The Falcons will have no chance to score points with Matt Schaub, outside of a potential late-game drive when the Seahawks stop trying. Thus, let’s focus on this matchup as if Ryan were set to play. Ryan has feasted on garbage time this year, and I wouldn’t trust him to perform well in this game during the opening half. Jadeveon Clowney will have his way with inept rookie right tackle Kaleb McGary, who is part of a poor Atlanta offensive line that hasn’t been able to block anyone this year.

Meanwhile, the Falcons just lost Mohamed Sanu (check my NFL Trade Grades page for more), so they’re down a viable receiver. The Seahawks’ secondary has struggled this year, though cornerback Shaq Griffin has played well enough to lock down one side of the field. Ryan, when given time in the pocket, will have success throwing to the other side, but the “when given time in the pocket” part of that is a major qualifier, as Ryan has been hounded by pass rushes in every game.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Falcons’ dreadful offensive line is just one part of the equation for why they’ve been so bad this year. The other is the defense, particularly the lacking pass rush and atrocious secondary.

Teams haven’t had any sort of issue throwing on the Falcons, especially since they lost both Keanu Neal and Desmond Trufant to injury. This is a dream matchup for Russell Wilson and his receivers, as Atlanta simply doesn’t have the personnel to cover them. Even better, Wilson won’t face much pressure in the pocket. This is rare for Wilson because his blocking is not very good, but Atlanta’s pass rush couldn’t even rattle Jared Goff, and yet Goff’s offensive line has been worse than Wilson’s!

The Falcons aren’t very good at stopping the run either. They’re better in that regard by default, but they’re still weak in that area. Chris Carson will have a nice game when Wilson isn’t torching Atlanta’s secondary.

RECAP: I’ve been fading the Falcons since Week 2, which has been a great strategy. They are a truly horrible team that can’t do anything well, outside of generating points in garbage time. Unless this spread is ridiculously high, I imagine I’ll be on Seattle.

The Seahawks are overrated, but I think they’ll be focused after coming off a loss. They should be able to cover if they’re favored by three or four points, as the Rams just demolished the Falcons, and I consider Seattle and Los Angeles to be even.

Unfortunately, there’s no spread yet, so I can’t give you an official pick at the moment. Check back, or follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’re still waiting on a spread, as Matt Ryan’s status is still unknown. I’m almost certainly going to be on the Seahawks.

SATURDAY NOTES: “We still don’t know if Matt Ryan will play. However, the Falcons have a bye coming up, and they’re down two starting offensive linemen. Why put him on the field at 1-6? Plus, even if Ryan plays, he could either A) be ineffective or B) aggravate the injury. I think I’m going to bet Seattle at a -7, which is what I assume the spread will be.”

I wrote this early Saturday morning in preparation for my Saturday notes. Lo and behold, Ryan is out, and Matt Schaub will start. I still like the Seahawks for a big play, as I can’t see the Falcons being competitive with Schaub under center. The best line is Seattle -8.5 -108 at Heritage, which I’ll round to -110 for easier tracking.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Here’s a spread I wish I hadn’t locked in yesterday. It’s available at -7.5 at Bookmaker. Hopefully this margin doesn’t fall on eight. I believe this line movement is because the Seahawks are down one of their starting cornerbacks (Tre Flowers), but does that really matter against Matt Schaub?


The Motivation. Edge: Seahawks.
Russell Wilson should be extra focused off a loss.


The Spread. Edge: TBA.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -3.5 (Ryan).
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -3.5.
Computer Model: Seahawks -7.
DVOA Spread: Seahawks -2.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
Tons of money going against Matt Schaub.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 80% (15,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Russell Wilson is 17-8 ATS after a loss as long as he’s not favored by -10 or more.

Falcons are 27-17 ATS following a loss of 6+ in the previous 44 instances.

Opening Line: Seahawks -6.5.

Opening Total: 53.

Weather: Dome.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Seahawks 30, Falcons 16
Seahawks -8.5 (4 Units) – any sportsbook — Incorrect; -$440
Under 51 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 27, Falcons 20

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New York Jets (1-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4)
Line: Jaguars by 7. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Oct. 27, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. Much was made of the horrible calls at the end of the Packers-Lions game last Monday night, and rightfully so. There were three horrible calls that all went against the Lions.

Was it a coincidence that this happened? Most might think so, and I did too – until I saw this:



To be clear, this is not verified, and even if it’s real, it doesn’t mean that Clete Blakeman is crooked. However, it is very suspicious, and I’ve been saying Blakeman is corrupt for years!

From my 2013 NFL Awards page:

This year’s award goes to NFL official Clete Blakeman, who picked up an obvious pass interference flag on Panthers’ linebacker Luke Kuechly, offered no explanation for doing so and ran into the locker room, allowing Carolina to cover the spread. This spawned the “Clete Blakeman Rule,” which is to refrain from betting on the final game of the day/week if there’s an enormous amount of public money on one side. Blakeman is a crooked ref. He’s not the only one; just the most obvious.

If you’re rolling your eyes because you’re convinced that this is nonsensical conspiracy theory talk, let me remind you that an NBA ref, Tim Donaghy, was convicted of point shaving. If it can happen in the NBA, it can certainly occur in the NFL.

Regardless, the NFL must fire Blakeman immediately. There’s been enough speculation over the years to indicate that he is actually corrupt, so the NFL would protect itself by getting rid of this guy, who happens to be a horrible official in the first place.

2. It’s time to get to a pet peeve of mine. This is something that NFL TV announcers have been saying for years, but it seems to be done with more frequency lately, for some reason. It’s this:

“He scored from X yards out.”

I swear, half the announcers say this, and it aggravates the hell out of me. Whatever happened to the rule, “Don’t end your sentences with prepositions?” It’s OK to do it sometimes, but “He scored from X yards out” is just as grammatically flawed as “Where you at?”

Why even have the “out?” Saying “he scored from X yards” is fine. Even better, “He scored an X-yard touchdown.”

People, I know many of you out there must be as frustrated by this as I am. Please, for the love of God, tweet at these announcers whenever they say “he scored from X yards out” so I can stop losing my mind.

3. Last week, I asked, who is the most hated player in football right now? My dad, unprompted, voiced his opinion when I watched a Thursday night game with him:

Dad: Ezekiel Elliott is the most hated guy in football right now!

Me: Why?

Dad: Because he’s disgusting!

This week, my dad offered a hot take on Andy Reid during the Chiefs-Broncos game.

Dad: I hate Andy Reid. Everyone hates Andy Reid!

Me: Why?

Dad: Because he looks like a pig.

There you have it. Everyone hates Reid, and it’s not because of his poor time management. It’s because he looks like a pig.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Sam Darnold admitted to his coaching staff that he was seeing ghosts Monday night. This was a shame for anyone who bet on him, but the good news is that Darnold can perhaps help Bruce Willis solve a murder and come to terms that he’s already dead. Spoiler alert.

It didn’t help Darnold that he kept throwing in Stephon Gilmore’s direction. He targeted Robby Anderson, who was smothered by Gilmore, eight times, yet came away with one completion. I don’t understand why Darnold continued to pepper Anderson with targets, but that strategy will work much better this week. The Jaguars’ cornerbacks are far worse than what the Patriots have in the wake of Jalen Ramsey’s departure, while the safeties have performed poorly this year, especially Ronnie Harrison. There’s a question of whether or not Darnold will get adequate protection, and that’ll depend on the injury report, as several of his linemen are banged up.

Meanwhile, Le’Veon Bell will bounce back as well. Bell, historically, has struggled against the Patriots. He’ll have a better game against the Jaguars, whose linebackers have really struggled this year. I don’t know what has happened to Myles Jack, but he looks like he’s running in slow motion right now.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Though Sony Michel scored thrice Monday night, the Jets did a solid job of containing the run, especially when considering that they had to worry about Tom Brady torching them. Containing Leonard Fournette will be crucial for the Jets to prevail in this contest, and I think New York will be able to do that. The Jets have a very talented defensive front, while linebacker C.J. Mosley will be very important for the team’s chances going forward.

Despite containing the run well, the Jets didn’t have any sort of success stopping the Patriots when the game was “in doubt” in the opening half. This is because Gregg Williams foolishly blitzed Tom Brady frequently, which has been a losing strategy over the years. Brady, as well as other top quarterbacks, eat blitzes alive. You can’t say the same thing about Gardner Minshew, who made several mistakes last week, yet didn’t pay the price. Minshew missed two of his receivers for potential touchdowns because of poor throws, and he would’ve been intercepted had a Cincinnati defender not dropped the ball. Minshew has enjoyed some nice moments as a rookie, but he struggled at times against a decimated Bengal defense.

Minshew will face a great challenge this week, and not just because of the Jets’ talented safeties. Left tackle Cam Robinson got hurt in the Cincinnati game, so if he’s out, Minshew’s pass protection will be poor.

RECAP: You can make lots of money fading public overreactions to national TV games, and we’re going to have that opportunity in this contest. This spread was Jacksonville -4 on the advance line, and yet it’s now -6, based on what happened in one game. I even thought -4 was too high, so -6 is absurd!

My calculated line for this game is Jacksonville -2.5. I think the Jets, with Darnold and Mosley on the field, are a tad better than the Jaguars, though that’s up for debate. What’s not up for debate is that one team is substantially better than the other, which is what the six-point spread is telling us.

How in the world are the Ramsey-less Jaguars favored by six over any team not named the Dolphins or Bengals? This spread is preposterous, and it’s not even factoring in that the Jaguars might be looking ahead to their big divisional battle next week against the Texans, which will be in London.

I’m going to bet the Jets heavily. The exact unit count will, of course, be determined by the injury report, as there are questions for both teams’ offensive lines.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I have two pieces of bad news for what seemed like a potential great bet on the Jets. Sam Darnold is dealing with a toe injury and may not be 100 percent as a result. Also, C.J. Mosley’s groin is acting up again, and he’s not practicing. Given this development, I have very little interest in betting on the Jets. In fact, I may switch to Jacksonville by the weekend.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a lot going on with the injury report. For the Jaguars, they’re going to be down three linebackers. None of them are Myles Jack, but still. They’re going to be very thin at the position, which could make it difficult for them to stop Le’Veon Bell. The Jets, however, have it way worse. Two offensive linemen are down for sure (Kelvin Beachum, Kelechi Osemele), while C.J. Mosley has been ruled out again, meaning New York will also be without two linebackers. Perhaps most important is that Sam Darnold popped up on the injury report with a toe issue. He practiced Thursday and Friday after missing Wednesday’s practice, so he might be OK, but I can’t say that for certain. Given these bad developments for the Jets, I can’t advocate a wager on them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Professional money has been betting the Jaguars up to -7, so I’m glad I avoided betting the Jets at +6.


The Motivation. Edge: Jets.
The Jaguars have a big game against the Texans next week in London.


The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -2.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -4.
Computer Model: Jaguars -10.
DVOA Spread: Jaguars -6.5.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 59% (17,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Jaguars are 8-15 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more since 2003. ???

Jaguars are 42-75 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 12-22 ATS as home favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Jaguars -5.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Humid and cloudy, 82 degrees. Light wind.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Jets 20, Jaguars 17
Jets +7 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jaguars 29, Jets 15

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Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) at Buffalo Bills (5-1)
Line: Bills by 1.5. Total: 38.
Sunday, Oct. 27, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. Someone will need to explain to me why Clemson dropped in the rankings. The Tigers fell to No. 3 this past week, moving behind LSU on the AP Top 25 poll. They remained second in the coaches’ poll.

Does anyone really think LSU would be favored over Clemson on a neutral field? This is absolute nonsense, and it’s proof that the idiots in the Associated Press shouldn’t be voting on anything; let alone college football rankings. In an era in which the news has been exposed as undeniably fake, it’s mind-boggling to me that college football would still associate itself with the Associated Press.

2. Speaking of Clemson, does anyone else find it depressing that Clemson is the favorite to land D.J. Uiagalelei? He’s the top quarterback recruit, for those of you who have never tried to spell that bizarre last name.

It’s depressing because the rich will just get richer. I imagine this Uiagalelei character will sign with Clemson as long as Dabo Swinney remains at the school. It’s crazy because the Tigers have been able to enjoy Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence, and once the latter leaves, they’ll be able to start Uiagalelei, who will continue to make sure that the Tigers win almost every game.

This is why college football tends to be a bit too boring for me sometimes. It’s not like college basketball, where you can have a Davidson or a George Mason come out of nowhere and threaten to win the title. Just once, I’d like to see one of the top college football recruits consider going to UT-Chattanooga, or Morehead State, or Weber State. And then, one of those schools could be voted into the top 25 by fake-news writers.

3. Still speaking of Clemson, there were a couple of noteworthy things from its game against Louisville this past Saturday. One special-teams guy was ejected for throwing punches. He did so while he was on top of a Louisville player, and he fired a couple of punches at the Cardinal player’s helmet.

How dumb is this, seriously? Someone wearing a helmet will feel nothing if you punch him in the helmet. That’s the whole point of the helmet! If anything, go for the throat! Try to strangle him like Homer Simpson does to Bart. Punching someone in the helmet can only hurt you. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Clemson player broke or fractured his hand!

Also, one of the announcers said something strange:

“I’m not a fan of quarterback flip-flopping, but that’s why coaches coach.”

That’s why coaches coach. What the hell does that even mean? Coaches coach because they are opposed to an announcer’s quarterback flip-flopping? Does that sound right to anyone? I’m guessing that coaches coach for other reasons.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Eagles’ secondary has been exposed all year. It started right away, when there was a missed tackle on a long Vernon Davis touchdown in the opener, followed up by a surrendered deep ball to a then-unknown Terry McLaurin. Philadelphia has had immense trouble stopping the pass throughout the entire 2019 campaign.

The Eagles’ issues in that regard could be put on pause in this contest, however. Josh Allen’s accuracy has been spotty this season, especially recently after he hurt his hand in the Tennessee game. Allen was 6-of-15 for 90 yards in the opening half last week despite battling the dreadful, Xavien Howard-less Dolphins. If Allen couldn’t full exploit Miami, there’s a chance that he could continue to struggle against the Eagles, despite Philadelphia’s problems in the secondary.

The Eagles will also be able to clamp down on the run. They struggled to tackle Ezekiel Elliott this past week, but Frank Gore and Devin Singletary are obviously not of Elliott’s caliber. Also, the Bills don’t have a dominant receiver like Amari Cooper to distract the Eagles’ defense, which is what occurred Sunday night.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Allen’s hand won’t be the only reason to track the injury report this week. Matt Milano’s status will also be very important. Milano is one of the better linebackers in the NFL that no one outside of Buffalo has heard of. Milano missed last week’s game, and the Bills’ defense looked lost without him. Buffalo couldn’t stop the run or cover in space with Milano sidelined.

The Eagles have the personnel to fully take advantage of Milano’s potential absence this week. They were running well versus Dallas when they had the chance, but couldn’t do so frequently because of the quick 14-0 deficit. They’ll be able to establish Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders this Sunday, while Carson Wentz should find his two talented tight ends over the middle of the field.

Meanwhile, it’ll be interesting to see if DeSean Jackson returns from injury. Jackson has played just one game this year, but his presence will create problems for the Bills, who have just one cornerback playing at a high level right now (Tre’Davious White.)

RECAP: The Jets aren’t the only team we’ll be able to take advantage of because of national TV overreaction. The public saw the Eagles get humiliated on Sunday night and are now eager to bet against them. The betting action is in favor of Buffalo, and the spread has moved as well. My line for this game is a pick, yet Buffalo is now -2 and trending upward. It wouldn’t surprise me if we were able to get Philadelphia +3 -130, or even -125 by kickoff.

This is a classic example of the clueless public overreacting to one game. The Eagles were screwed instantly because they were down 14-0 because of a pair of fumbles. The 37-10 result was not indicative of the talent level of the two teams, but rather the game script as a result of the fluky 14-0 lead for Dallas. The Eagles won in Lambeau earlier in the year and would be 5-2 right now if backup receivers didn’t drop passes at the end of the Atlanta and Detroit games. If the Eagles were 5-2, they would be favored in Buffalo. Yet, we’re getting points with them. Lucky us!

The Eagles are an obvious multi-unit play. The unit count will depend, of course, on the injury report, as Milano, Jackson and Jason Peters are some of the questionable players heading into this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m still holding out hope that this line will rise and hit +3 in some sort of capacity. This is another game in which the injury report will be imperative. It’s that sort of week.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s bad news for the Eagles regarding the injury report. They’ll once again be down Jason Peters and DeSean, as well as linebacker Nigel Bradham and their usual defensive tackles. Meanwhile, I was hoping for Buffalo to be missing Matt Milano, but it seems like he’ll be able to play after being limited in practice all week. I’m stil on the Eagles, but for just two units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are very heavy winds in Buffalo. I’m not sure if this helps either team, so I’ll stay with two units on the Eagles at PK -105 (at Bookmaker). I’ll also do something I seldom do: bet the total. I’m going to wager half of a unit on the under.


The Motivation. Edge: Eagles.
This is almost a must-win game for the Eagles, who will look to redeem themselves after being embarrassed on national TV.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bills -1.
Computer Model: Bills -3.
DVOA Spread: Bills -1.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 54% (22,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Eagles are 33-21 ATS as road underdogs since 2005.

Bills are 9-33 ATS after playing the Miami Dolphins since 1998.

Opening Line: Bills -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 58 degrees. HEAVY WINDS, 30 mph.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Eagles 17, Bills 14
Eagles PK -105 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
Under 38 +100 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50
Eagles 31, Bills 13

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Cincinnati Bengals (0-7) vs. Los Angeles Rams (4-3)
Line: Rams by 12. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Oct. 27, 1:00 PM
at London


The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: If anyone is confused about why Jared Goff looked so much better last week than he did versus the 49ers, just take a look at the pass rushes of San Francisco and Atlanta. The 49ers pressure the quarterback better than any other team in the NFL, while the Falcons don’t get any heat on opposing signal-callers. This is important for Goff, who is frazzled by pressure. The Rams’ offensive line is a train wreck, so the Goff will continue to look like Jekyll and Hyde, depending on the quality of pass rush he faces each week.

The Bengals, as you may have guessed, don’t pressure the quarterback. They were down their top two edge rushers last week, and if that continues to be the case, Goff will rip apart Cincinnati’s secondary with ease. The Bengals were also missing their top two cornerbacks. If that continues to be the case, I don’t know how they’re going to cover Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods on the outside. Darqueze Dennard, meanwhile, stands no chance against Cooper Kupp in the slot.

Perhaps the best matchup the Rams will be able to exploit is Todd Gurley versus the Cincinnati linebackers. The Bengals have the worst linebacking corps in the NFL – even worse than Miami’s – so getting Gurley in space will be an easy way to move the chains.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The injuries continue to be prevalent for the Bengals on the offensive side of the ball. They were down FOUR starting offensive linemen last week, as well as their top reserve tackle. They had to use John Jerry, a mediocre backup guard, as their starting left tackle!

Unless Cordy Glenn returns from his lengthy concussion, the Bengals won’t be able to block the Rams’ front whatsoever. Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers will dominate the interior, while Dante Fowler will abuse Jerry on the blind side. Andy Dalton won’t have any time to throw, while Joe Mixon will continue to be stuffed at the line of scrimmage at the highest rate in the NFL.

The best aspect of the Bengals’ roster at the moment is the receiving corps, especially if A.J. Green can return this week. Auden Tate and Alex Erickson have played well, while Tyler Boyd had previous bright moments, though he has been dreadful with countless drops lately. However, the Rams now have Jalen Ramsey to erase either Green or Tate, while Nickell Robey-Coleman is a solid slot receiver who should be able to handle Boyd well.

RECAP: There has been a ton of line movement in comparison to the advance spread. Los Angeles -9.5 was the advance line, yet it’s now -13!

I constantly say that a spread shouldn’t move two or more points in a week unless there happens to be a major injury. However, I think you could say that there have been some important injuries, as the Bengals are down four starting offensive linemen, two talented edge rushers and their top two cornerbacks. Once I saw the injury report this past Friday evening, I made a big play on the Jaguars despite initially liking Cincinnati.

If the injury report is as dubious for the Bengals this week, I’m going to be on the Rams. However, I don’t envision betting on this game for more than a unit, given the back-door possibility with this high spread.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Here’s yet another game where the injury report means quite a bit. The Bengals have so many injuries, so if everyone is out again, the Rams will be worth a decent wager.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bengals won’t be as bad as they were last week. They’ll have one of their edge rushers back on the field (Carlos Dunlap), as well as one of their cornerbacks (William Jackson) and perhaps two of their offensive linemen (John Miller and Andre Smith), both of whom are questionable after being limited in practice all week. Given that Cincinnati will have some reinforcements back on the field, I have no interest in betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As with the Lions, the Bengals aren’t as banged up as they were last week, which ruins a nice betting opportunity.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -10.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Rams -9.5.
Computer Model: Rams -12.
DVOA Spread: Rams -11.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
Will anyone bet on Cincinnati?

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 80% (11,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Rams -10.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Rams 38, Bengals 17
Rams -12 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Rams 24, Bengals 10

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Arizona Cardinals (3-3-1) at New Orleans Saints (6-1)
Line: Saints by 12. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Oct. 27, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: I’m currently having printer issues – I can’t get it to connect to my damn network – so I enjoyed this (thanks, Tom H.):



F***ing printers. Why don’t they ever work!?

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals began the year with an 0-3-1 record, but thanks to three consecutive victories, they are now 3-3-1. What’s changed for them in the past three weeks, you ask? Nothing. Absolutely nothing.

Well, that’s not entirely true, as Patrick Peterson is back to aid their secondary, but the offense is the same. The Cardinals were able to rack up victories over the past three weeks because they’ve gone up against teams that don’t pressure quarterbacks well at all. They’ve beaten the Bengals, Falcons and Giants. None of those teams have quality defenses, so Arizona has been able to move the chains well.

This was not the case in the Cardinals’ previous games versus the Panthers and Seahawks. I imagine their offense will play like it did against Carolina and Seattle this week, as the Saints have a tremendous stop unit. Talented edge rushers Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport have a great edge over the tackles, which will force Kyler Murray into taking more bad sacks. Meanwhile, the Saints’ stout run defense will shut down David Johnson, or more likely, Chase Edmonds. I like Edmonds, but he’s not as talented as Johnson, so I’m not sure he’ll be able to fully exploit the one weakness the Saints have on this side of the ball, which would be the linebacking corps.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: As mentioned earlier, Peterson’s return to the team provides a huge boost. Peterson will be able to limit Michael Thomas this week, which will give the Cardinals a chance to slow down the Saints elsewhere, especially if Alvin Kamara is out again.

That said, the Cardinals have just “a chance” to do this. Their secondary, aside from Peterson, has some major weaknesses for Teddy Bridgewater to expose. Bridgewater should also have a clean pocket; Chandler Jones and Terrell Suggs both pressure the quarterback well, but they could be stymied by one of the NFL’s top tackle tandems, Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk.

Assuming Bridgewater has time in the pocket, he’ll still hit Thomas occasionally. He might have more success finding Jared Cook versus the league’s worst defense against tight ends. Ted Ginn will have a chance to catch some deep passes against terrible cornerbacks, while Latavius Murray will have some success against an underwhelming linebacking corps.

RECAP: The Cardinals have enjoyed an easy schedule thus far. The two best teams they’ve played, Carolina and Seattle, blew them out. They also trailed the Lions and Ravens by double digits. Conversely, they were able to defeat the horrible Giants, Falcons and Bengals, who have a combined 3-18 record.

I don’t think they stand a chance against the Saints, who will be focused for this game. New Orleans will be heading into the bye, and good teams typically play very well with a long layoff on the horizon.

Still, this spread is right around where I thought it would be, and there’s a good amount of action on the host. Plus, there’s a chance that Kyler Murray will get a back-door score to cover. I’m going to be on the Saints, but for a zero- or low-unit play.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Teddy Bridgewater will reportedly start this game. I was hoping for a spread under -10, but that’s what the number is. I don’t think I’ll be betting this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are fantasy football implications on the injury report, but nothing that would impact a pick against the spread. Meanwhile, this line has risen to -12.5 because Drew Brees is returning. This doesn’t affect my opinion on this game, which was already zero units on New Orleans.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Alvin Kamara is out, while Christian Kirk will play. That doesn’t really matter as far as this pick is concerned. I’m still on the Saints, but I’m not betting this game.


The Motivation. Edge: Saints.
The Saints have a bye coming up, so they’ll be fully focused for this game.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -9.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Brees).
Computer Model: Saints -10.
DVOA Spread: Saints -10.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 58% (14,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Saints are 45-37 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Saints are 9-13 ATS as double-digit favorites under Sean Payton. ???

Opening Line: Saints -10.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Saints 27, Cardinals 13
Saints -12 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 48.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 31, Cardinals 9

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Denver Broncos (2-5) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2)
Line: Colts by 6.5. Total: 42.
Sunday, Oct. 27, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

The 2019 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are here!



To read about this, check out the 2019 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts via the link!

DENVER OFFENSE: Joe Flacco had a performance for the ages last Thursday. Battling a horrible Kansas City defense, Flacco fell flat on his face, failing to do anything. He couldn’t even get yardage in garbage time. It was an absolutely dismal performance.

However, I expect Flacco to rebound. Flacco was on an inferior team playing with just three days to prepare last week. Now, he’ll have extra time to bounce back. Flacco has been better than what we saw in Week 7 this year, so I don’t see why he would be horrible again, especially given that he’ll have right tackle Ja’Wuan James back in the lineup. James’ return will be huge, as he’s a massive upgrade over what Denver had the previous few weeks at the position.

With more time in the pocket, Flacco should have success throwing to Courtland Sutton, who has a favorable matchup against an injury-ravaged secondary that has surrendered some big plays to receivers this year. The running game, meanwhile, won’t work as well, as the Colts are better versus the rush with Darius Leonard on the field once again.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts have typically wanted to run through Marlon Mack, but that wasn’t much of an option last week because the Texans play extremely well versus the run. The Broncos have done the same ever since they’ve gotten some defensive linemen back from injury, so Jacoby Brissett will once again have to put the offense on his shoulders.

This worked last week, as Brissett sliced through Houston’s miserable secondary with ease. Things won’t be so easy for Brissett this time, as the Broncos have elite cornerback Chris Harris Jr. to slow down T.Y. Hilton. With Hilton smothered, Brissett will have to look elsewhere, which won’t be ideal because of how lackluster the receiving corps is. Zach Pascal graded out better than C++ versus the Texans, but only because of the matchup. I’ll be surprised if Pascal plays just as well again this week.

The one thing going for the Colts on this side of the ball in this matchup is that Brissett will be well protected. His offensive line is elite, so even though Von Miller will be on the other side of the line of scrimmage, Brissett should at least have time to scan the field, so I don’t think Indianapolis will be truly inept offensively.

RECAP: The Broncos just dealt Emmanuel Sanders – I had to fix my write-up in the process – so perhaps this line will rise to +7. Either way, I like the Broncos. They were +4.5 on the advance spread, yet they’re now +6 because everyone saw them get blown out by a superior team. With extra time to prepare, they should be able to rebound against an Indianapolis team that is trending toward overrated territory. I like the Colts, but beating the Texans is not very impressive because of how bad Houston’s offensive line is. Also, people are quick to forget that the Colts lost to the Raiders at home!

If the Colts can lose to the Raiders at home, they can certainly blow a game to the Broncos, who are two horrible roughing-the-passer penalties away from being 4-3. If Denver happened to be 4-3, this spread wouldn’t be nearly as high as it is at the moment. That gives us good value on the Broncos, who will be better with James playing right tackle again.

The question is, how much value will we get? This line was moving down from +6 to +5.5, but went back up to +6 following the Sanders trade announcement. If we can get +7 later in the week, I’ll have this as a large play on Denver.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds as though Malik Hooker will be back for the Colts, which will greatly improve their pass defense. That makes the Broncos a bit less appealing, especially with this spread not moving up despite the Emmanuel Sanders trade.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ja’Wuan James practiced fully all week, which is huge. There’s been some major sharp action on the Broncos, dragging down this spread. I love the Broncos, as this is a major redemption spot for them after being embarrassed on national TV. I’m going to hold out for +6.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m glad I held out for a +6. There’s even a +6.5 -115 at Bovada! There’s a ton of action on the Colts, and the injury report looks good for Denver. Ja’Wuan James will play, while the Colts will be down Pierre Desir. I’m going to wager five units on Denver.


The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.
The Broncos were just humiliated on national TV. The Colts, meanwhile, are coming off a big victory over one of their arch rivals.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -6.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Colts -4.5.
Computer Model: Colts -7.
DVOA Spread: Colts -4.


The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
Action coming in on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 77% (22,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Colts -5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Colts 23, Broncos 20
Broncos +6.5 -115 (5 Units) – Bovada — Correct; +$500
Broncos +200 (0.5 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$50
Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Colts 15, Broncos 13

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Week 8 NFL Picks – Late Games
Panthers at 49ers, Raiders at Texans, Browns at Patriots, Packers at Chiefs, Dolphins at Steelers




Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 8 NFL Picks – Late Games



NFL Picks - Nov. 15


2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13


NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12


Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4




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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2
Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5
Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)