NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2018

NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 8-7-1 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2018): 8-8 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2018): 8-6-1 (+$280)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2018): 10-4-1 (+$1,415)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2018): 6-7-2 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2018): 7-7 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2018): 6-8 (+$510)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2018): 5-8 (-$1,445)

NFL Picks (2018): 77-72-6 (-$140)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$3,790)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 11, 11:35 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games

Carolina Panthers (6-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2-1)
Line: Steelers by 3.5. Total: 51.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -1.
Thursday, Nov 8, 8:20 PM

The Game. Edge: None.

WEEK 9 RECAP: Heading into Week 9, this season had been a decent one, but not exactly as good as I thought it would be. Unfortunately, Week 9 took me into the red, as I went 5-8, -$1,445.

A brutal week like that is always a combination of horrible picks and bad luck. The horrible picks were Ravens -3 (Baltimore was way too banged up heading into the game to compete with Pittsburgh), Raiders +3 (I noted that Nick Mullens was better than I thought he was after watching all of his preseason snaps, but that was after I already locked in that selection) and Redskins -2.5 (Atlanta was more desperate, while Washington, like Baltimore, was also way too banged up to compete.)

There was bad luck, especially with Jets +3. New York outgained Miami by 120 net yards, and the Dolphins averaged a pathetic 3.1 yards per play (compared to 4.4 for the Jets.) The Dolphins’ offense scored just three points, as the other 10 came off Sam Darnold turnovers. Also, Broncos -2.5 was a byproduct of bad luck as well, as Denver lost its best offensive lineman, center Matt Paradis, to an injury. The Broncos couldn’t block the Texans with Paradis out.

My other big play that lost, Buccaneers +6, was frustrating. I don’t think it was a bad pick. Carolina is a team that is often aloof as big favorites, and it had a Thursday night game against the Steelers coming up. We’ve seen the Panthers be no-shows against the Giants and Redskins earlier this year, so I thought it was reasonable to expect them to be flat with an impending short work week. Unfortunately, they brought their “A” game for some reason against Tampa. Going with the Buccaneers there is a pick I’ll always make, so that loss was unavoidable, unfortunately.

Week 9 sucked, but there’s no such thing as a bad week if you learn something, and I feel like I picked up something valuable in regards to evaluating injury reports for teams with stacked injuries in one area, much like the Ravens had heading into the weekend. With two offensive linemen out, there was no way Baltimore was going to be able to block Pittsburgh. The Ravens ended up losing because they couldn’t block.

My Week 10 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Panthers may have suffocated the Buccaneers’ offense until garbage time in the second half, but Ben Roethlisberger is no Ryan Fitzpatrick, especially at home. Roethlisberger has picked up his play as the season has progressed, and he should continue to perform at a high level in this matchup, as Carolina has an extreme weakness at cornerback.

I love Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster in this matchup. The Panthers’ secondary has struggled ever since getting rid of Josh Norman, and this is one of the best receiving duos they’ll see all year. Meanwhile, Roethlisberger is very well protected, even though he didn’t have right tackle Marcus Gilbert available last week. The Panthers don’t have the most consistent pass rush, so Roethlisberger should have all the time he needs to locate his two dynamic receivers.

Meanwhile, James Conner has a tough matchup, as Carolina has an excellent front seven. However, Conner produced versus a tough Baltimore ground defense last week. Conner won’t have one of his best games, but he’ll pick up substantial yardage and perhaps score once or twice.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers also figure to score often, as Pittsburgh’s defense has some major problems that Norv Turner and Cam Newton will be able to exploit.

The weak point of Pittsburgh’s defense is the linebacking corps, as Ryan Shazier continues to be missed. The Steelers can’t defend pass-catching running backs or tight ends, which is something the Ravens lacked the personnel to take advantage of. The Panthers can certainly do so, however, as Christian McCaffrey and the now-healthy Greg Olsen are Newton’s two primary weapons. Both should have big games.

Newton will also pick up chunks of yardage with his legs, as usual. Newton’s ability to scramble is significant, as the left side of Carolina’s offensive line is a liability the Steelers should be able to exploit.

RECAP: Full disclosure: I’m marking down two units down on the Panthers, but I will not bet this game. Because I already have:

The Westgate casino allows you to bet on certain games in advance, and this one really stood out to me. I couldn’t believe that the Panthers were +6.5, so I put $300 on them, making note of it in my 2018 NFL Betting Props page. I considered Carolina to be better than Pittsburgh heading into the season, and I still think that’s the case! Both teams have dynamic offenses playing well, but Carolina’s defense is superior.

I put three units on +6.5. I still like the Panthers at +4, but not as much. We lost some line value – Carolina was +6 on the advance spread – and these Thursday night games tend to be wonky. I’m going to mark down the Panthers +4 at two units, and I would legitimately wager on them for that amount if I didn’t have a bet placed on them already.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has dropped to -3 -125, as there is a ton of sharp action coming in on the Panthers. I still like Carolina for two units, though center Ryan Kalil’s condition is worth monitoring.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has settled at +3.5, as the sharps bet the Panthers all the way down from +5 to that number. I believe Carolina to be better than Pittsburgh, so I like the points as well. I hate Thursday night games, so I wouldn’t go above two units, but Carolina seems like the right side, especially with Ryan Kalil set to be in the lineup.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 55% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Steelers -5.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Steelers 28, Panthers 27
Panthers +3.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 51.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Steelers 52, Panthers 21

Buffalo Bills (2-7) at New York Jets (3-6)
Line: Jets by 7. Total: 38.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Jets -9.5.
Sunday, Nov 11, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Jets.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have three overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Sam Darnold gift-wrapped a victory for the Dolphins last week. Miami was doing absolutely nothing offensively, averaging a pathetic 3.1 yards per play. And yet, the Dolphins managed to win because two of Darnold’s four interceptions turned into 10 points for Miami.

Darnold has had his extreme ups and downs this year, but there’s reason to expect him to rebound. First of all, Darnold has done better at home against weaker competition, as he thrived versus the Colts and Broncos several weeks ago. And second, he’ll have an entire week of practice to work with Robby Anderson and Quiny Enunwa for the first time in quite a while, as Anderson and Enunwa have missed action with injuries.

Anderson and Enunwa will help, but Chris Herndon could be Darnold’s best weapon in this matchup. The Bills struggle to cover in space, so the emerging rookie tight end could be productive once again. I also like Elijah McGuire as a pass-catching threat out of the backfield. McGuire returned to action for the first time all year last week, and he’s an obvious upgrade over Trenton Cannon. I would actually like to see McGuire get more of a workload than Isaiah Crowell, though Buffalo’s tough run defense will prevent either from getting much on the ground.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: It sounds like Derek Anderson will be starting this week, relegating Nathan J. Peterman back to the bench. I guess this is an upgrade, only because meaningless checkdowns are better than interceptions. Either way, the Bills aren’t going to challenge the Jets’ talented secondary at all.

Of course, quarterback is far from the only problem the Bills have on this side of the ball. Their offensive line is a colossal issue, especially against great defensive fronts. That includes what the Jets have, as they’ll absolutely dominate the trenches. Leonard Williams will provide consistent pressure on Anderson, which will force some turnovers. Add those to the meaningless checkdowns.

The only hope the Bills have is moving the chains via LeSean McCoy. The problem there is that New York’s stingy ground defense will prevent him from doing anything on the ground, while a solid linebacking corps will restrict him from breaking long gains as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: There won’t be many people betting the Jets heavily this week, but I will be doing so. Everyone just saw the Jets struggle to score against the Dolphins, so this is a prime opportunity to bet them. This line should be closer to double digits, as the Bills are a truly inept team. Not only does Buffalo have the worst quarterbacking situation in the NFL; it also can’t block for its inept signal-callers. The Jets have a solid defense that will be able to take advantage of both liabilities.

We saw the Jets demolish the Colts and Broncos at home earlier this year, and with all of the receivers back in the lineup, I believe we’ll see a similar result. I’m wagering four units on the Jets, and I may even increase this to five later in the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m moving this to “TBA units.” It sounds like there’s a legitimate chance Josh Allen could play. Also, neither of the Jets’ top two receivers have practiced. I like that Josh McCown will start over Sam Darnold, but it won’t matter if he doesn’t have his top two receivers.

SATURDAY NOTES: Josh Allen is out. Derek Anderson is out. Nathan J. Peterman won’t play. It’s going to be Matt Barkley behind a terrible offensive line with a pedestrian receiving corps. Unfortunately, this line rose to -7.5 immediately following the news. I like the Jets for four units, and I’ll pay the 10 extra cents to get to -7. Bookmaker has -7 -119 available, which I’ll round to -120 for simplicity.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Well, it turns out there was no reason to pay -120 juice on the Jets at -7 because some sharp money has moved this line to -7 -110 at 5Dimes. I thought this spread would shoot up in the wake of the Matt Barkley announcement, but apparently not. The sharps like the Bills for some reason.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 54% (8,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Bills have won 6 of the last 9 meetings (home team has won 9 of the last 12).

Bills are 28-17 ATS in November home games the previous 45 contests.

Bills are 16-24 ATS since November 2011 as a road underdog.

Opening Line: Jets -8.

Opening Total: 36.5.

Weather: Sunny, 46 degrees. Light wind.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Jets 23, Bills 6
Jets -7 -120 (4 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$480
Under 38 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bills 41, Jets 10

Atlanta Falcons (4-4) at Cleveland Browns (2-6-1)
Line: Falcons by 6. Total: 50.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Browns -1.
Sunday, Nov 11, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Falcons.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot.

The highest-bet sides were 43-40-4 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…

Here were the teams getting the most bets last week:

Chiefs -8

Bears -9

Steelers +3

Raiders -3

Vegas got slaughtered again in Week 9. But don’t take my word for it…

The overall record of heavily bet teams is now 20-22-3. Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Falcons -4

Saints -4.5

Packers -10

Chargers -10

Patriots -6.5

Chiefs -16.5

The public is very confident right now. I’m even getting ridiculous comments below like, “Your and idiot you should only bet on the best QB!” The sportsbooks will destroy people who have this mindset. I don’t know if that’ll happen this week, but it will at some point.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: I’ll be highly interested in the injury report concerning this game. The Browns lost several players in last week’s loss to the Chiefs, including star cornerback Denzel Ward. Cornerback E.J. Gaines and linebacker Christian Kirksey were also knocked out, and then there’s the team’s best linebacker, Joe Schobert, who has missed the past couple of games. There’s a chance the Browns will have a skeleton crew stop unit on the field this Sunday.

That, of course, is not a good thing against Matt Ryan, to say the least. Ryan isn’t as good on the road as he is at home, but he was stellar in last week’s victory at Washington, converting countless third downs. If Ryan doesn’t have to worry about Ward covering Julio Jones, that’s absolutely enormous, as all of his options will be open. The Browns’ cornerbacks outside of Ward are lacking, so Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu already had positive matchups. That goes for tight end Austin Hooper as well; Schobert’s absence has severely weakened Cleveland’s ability to cover tight ends.

Of course, the Falcons may not even have to throw very much. The Browns have been atrocious against ground attacks all year, especially with Schobert being out. Opposing runners have trampled them every week, and Tevin Coleman won’t disappoint.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: All of what I’ve written makes it sound like the Browns will get blown out. Well, I haven’t gotten to Atlanta’s pathetic defense yet. Like Cleveland, the Falcons have injury woes in the middle of their stop unit, which would explain why they’ve struggled so much against tight ends and pass-catching running backs.

Baker Mayfield will be able to connect with David Njoku and Duke Johnson with large amounts of success. Johnson, especially, as he finally was included in the game plan last week in the wake of the coach firings. It’s unclear why Johnson wasn’t doing much beforehand, but he’s such a dynamic threat out of the backfield, and he performed well versus the Chiefs. He’ll accumulate lots of receiving yardage once again.

The Falcons haven’t been good against the run either, so Nick Chubb should play well. Chubb nearly hit 100 rushing yards last week despite being in a constant large deficit, and he could eclipse that mark in this game. That’ll open things up for Mayfield, who needs all the help he can get, given that Greg Robinson is his left tackle.

RECAP: Half of Atlanta’s wins this year have been close calls against bad teams at home (Giants, Buccaneers), which is why they were only -1 at Cleveland on the advance line. Now, because of one victory against an unfocused Washington team, Atlanta has been bumped up three points, crossing the top key number of -3 and matching a third-tier key number of -4.

This is an absurd overreaction, and one that I want to bet against. Now that Mayfield is healthy, and the new coaching staff has an entire week to install a game plan, the Browns look appealing versus one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

The problem, however, is the injury report. The Browns could be missing several talented defensive players. If Ward and Schobert are slated to return to the field, I could see myself betting the Browns heavily. For now, I’ll designate them for TBA units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Browns just lost two defensive players for the year, but they’ve had good news in Denzel Ward practicing. This spread has risen to +6, so if Ward and Joe Schobert manage to return to action, Cleveland will be a very enticing play.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Browns lost Christian Kirksey and E.J. Gaines for the season, but the injury report has actually been favorable for them because both Joe Schobert and Denzel Ward are questionable after being limited in practice all week. If they both play, I’m going to bet a unit or two on the Browns, so check back Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Browns have Denzel Ward and Joe Schobert active, which is exactly what I wanted to see. Having Schobert back and Ward available is huge. I like the Browns now enough to bet them for a couple of units. Cleveland is available at +6 -110 at both BetUS and Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Is anyone going to bet Cleveland?

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 75% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Falcons -4.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Cloudy, 38 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Falcons 27, Browns 26
Browns +6 (2 Units) – BetUS — Correct; +$200
Over 50 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Browns 28, Falcons 16

New Orleans Saints (7-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-3)
Line: Saints by 5.5. Total: 54.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -3.
Sunday, Nov 11, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Saints.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. After a horrible week, you’d expect things like this:

Hey, say what you want, but 10-month-olds can certainly be picking experts.

I’m not sure if this constitutes as hate mail, only because I don’t understand what this guy is talking about:

What is a weel, and why does “fluking” sound like a dirty action. I assure all of you that I was not fluking myself last week!

This guy doesn’t like the way the site looks:

Unfortunately, I don’t have Mr. Rosen’s e-mail, but I’m sure you can look him up in the Central High School directory, if even still teaches there.

Here’s someone who doesn’t get jokes:

If you don’t understand that Ross stuff either, please purchase that book. It’s a great guide to understand humor so that you can actually laugh at stuff for a change, rather than be miserable all the time. Try it out!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Bengals, at full strength, would have a chance to slow the Saints down a little bit in this outdoor environment. However, they’re not completely healthy. They have major injury problems at linebacker. Vontaze Burfict isn’t practicing, and Nick Vigil was already expected to be out.

This is a huge problem. Vigil is Cincinnati’s best cover player at the position, while Burfict is stellar in all aspects. Without those two players, they’ll have severe issues stopping the Saints, as Drew Brees will exploit this liability mercilessly. Ben Watson will benefit from these injuries, but Alvin Kamara will be the primary player who will take advantage of the problems at linebacker. Cincinnati’s previous opponent, the Buccaneers, had Peyton Barber rush for 85 yards on 19 carries against them with Vigil and Burfict both out of the lineup. Can you imagine the damage Kamara is going to cause when considering that Barber had his highest rushing total of the season against them?

Speaking of that game against the Buccaneers, we saw Ryan Fitzpatrick lead a furious comeback, as Cincinnati’s cornerbacks struggled to defend his receivers. The Bengals’ cornerbacks will fail similarly against the unstoppable Michael Thomas, as Brees dissects their defense.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: With two key defensive players out, the Bengals will have to keep pace with the Saints. The problem is that their offense, for the most part, hasn’t been as good following the shootout in Atlanta, and now it figures to be even worse with A.J. Green out of the lineup.

I talked about that Atlanta game in prior weeks. The Bengals were prolific offensively, scoring on every drive, until Tyler Eifert got hurt in the beginning of the third quarter. The five possessions following this injury concluded with: punt, punt, turnover, field goal, touchdown at the end – and this was against Atlanta’s poor defense. The Bengals clearly took a step backward without Eifert, failing to thrive against bad defenses like the Steelers and Chiefs in succeeding weeks. Green’s absence will weaken the scoring unit exponentially.

There’s no question that the Bengals are a different offense without Green. They missed him in the second half of the Carolina game in Week 3, when they failed to keep pace with the Panthers after he got knocked out. With Green out of the lineup, the Saints will be able to use their only good cornerback, Marshon Lattimore, on Tyler Boyd. Andy Dalton will be forced to throw to the likes of John Ross, C.J. Uzomah, Josh Malone and Alex Erickson. Giovani Bernard could be back on the field, but the Saints tend to defend running backs well; they just did a masterful job on Todd Gurley, so they should be able to handle Bernard and Joe Mixon, especially given that they won’t have to worry about Green torching them downfield.

RECAP: I would tread lightly betting on publicly backed teams this week, but I think this is an exception. I like the Saints to cover, and I’m willing to bet a few units on them.

The Bengals are not the same team we saw at the beginning of the year. It started when Eifert got hurt, and now Green is sidelined as well. Meanwhile, their defense stinks without Burfict and Vigil. Brees will have a great performance in this game.

The only thing holding me back from making this a five-unit play – assuming Burfict and Vigil are sidelined – is that the Saints just had a big win over the Rams and have to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles next week. This could be considered a flat spot, but the Saints are a great team that could avoid such distractions. Brees didn’t take the Giants lightly in a similarly poor spot earlier in the year. He and Sean Payton are completely dialed in, as they know this could be their final opportunity to win a Super Bowl. I think there’s a better chance that the Saints will be focused than not.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As I mentioned before, I’m very interested to see Cincinnati’s injury report. If both of the Bengals’ linebackers are out, I’ll be betting heavily on the Saints. The fact that the sharps haven’t come in on the Bengals is good news.

SATURDAY NOTES: As expected, the Bengals will be missing their top two linebackers as well as a starting cornerback. Drew Brees is going to tear them apart, and I don’t think the Bengals will be able to keep up because of A.J. Green’s absence. The best line available is -5.5 -105 at 5Dimes.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both public and sharp money is on the Saints, taking this line up to -6. I’m glad I was able to get -5.5, but -6 should still be good enough.

The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.

The Saints are coming off a big win versus the Rams, and they have to battle the defending Super Bowl champions next week.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

A good amount of action is coming in on the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 65% (21,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Drew Brees is 49-30 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Saints are 7-14 ATS as road favorites of 4 or more since 2010.

Bengals are 25-17 ATS at home since 2013.

Bengals are 42-25 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: Saints -4.

Opening Total: 55.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 45 degrees. Light wind.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Saints 31, Bengals 20
Saints -5.5 -105 (3 Units) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$300
Under 54 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 51, Bengals 14

Washington Redskins (5-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)
Line: Buccaneers by 3. Total: 51.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Buccaneers -2.5.
Sunday, Nov 11, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins are a complete mess. It’s strange, as they were in control of their division just seven days ago, but the trouble started when it was announced that left tackle Trent Williams would miss a month with an injury. Washington could survive without Williams, but two other blockers – Brandon Scherff and Shawn Lauvao – were lost for the year against the Falcons. Right tackle Morgan Moses also got hurt and now is not 100 percent. Suddenly, the Redskins appear unlikely to make the playoffs even though they still lead the NFC East at 5-3.

The Redskins will obviously have severe blocking issues going forward, and that may seem trivial in this matchup to some, given how bad Tampa Bay’s defense has been this year. However, the Buccaneers have a very good defensive line, led by Gerald McCoy and Jason Pierre-Paul. They’ll dominate the trenches, just as Atlanta did last week. Alex Smith, as a result, won’t have much time to throw downfield, though I’m not sure he’d do that anyway, given how conservative he happens to be with the football.

Washington will also struggle to establish Adrian Peterson. The future Hall of Fame running back has been one of the catalysts for the Redskins’ great start, but his blocking has regressed greatly. Also, it must be noted that the Buccaneers are usually stout against ground attacks.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Redskins were pathetic on this side of the ball last week. They surrendered countless third-down conversions, as Matt Ryan had his way with them on the most important down of the game. Ryan Fitzpatrick obviously won’t be as good as Ryan in that regard, but there’s still plenty of concern for the Redskins.

Cornerback is the weak point of Washington’s defense, and the Buccaneers have the talented receivers to exploit that liability. Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin are all coming off disappointing performances, but they should shine in this matchup, just as Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu did last week.

That said, I don’t expect Tampa’s running game to work as well as Atlanta’s did last week. The Falcons pound the ball much better than the Buccaneers do, and I have to believe that Washington’s defensive line will rebound from a lackluster, low-effort showing.

RECAP: The advance spread on this game was pick ’em. This spread is Tampa Bay -3. That’s three points of value – except not really. The line movement here is justified for two reasons. First, all of the injuries the Redskins have incurred has fundamentally changed their team. And second, this spread opened at -1, yet rose to -3 because of sharp action on the host.

The professional bettors know what’s up. The Redskins are in shambles, as they won’t be able to block an underrated Buccaneer defensive line. I loved Tampa at -1 – it was going to be a five-unit pick – and I still think they’re a great play at -3.

I’m going with the Buccaneers for four units. They should be able to win easily against a fundamentally flawed Washington team that looks like it’s on the verge of collapsing. Tampa obviously has its issues as well, but I don’t think Smith will be able to expose the Buccaneers’ poor secondary. Also, consider that the Buccaneers could be deemed underrated; they’ve suffered some close losses recently with Jameis Winston making mistakes. They’re better with Fitzpatrick, and this is just their second home game since Week 3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps bet this up from -1 to -3. It sucks we’re not getting a sub-three line, but Tampa should be able to take care of business against a banged-up Redskin squad.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Redskins are incredibly banged up. Not only is their offensive line in shambles, but they’ll also be missing top backfield receiving weapon, Chris Thompson. The sun and heat might be a factor as well, as it’ll be in the mid-80s in Tampa this Sunday. Unfortunately, sharp money on the Buccaneers has caused the juice on -3 to increase. The best number I see is -3 -120 at Bookmaker. I’ll wait until Sunday morning to see if we can get something better.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Professional money on the Buccaneers has moved this line to -3.5. I goofed on waiting for better juice. You can still get -3 at -130 juice. That’s not ideal, and it’s not even better than -3.5 -110. However, I’m going to decrease the unit count to three, so I’m effectively betting four units on Tampa to win three. It sucks, but I don’t want to lose a wager because Tampa wins by three.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 53% (12,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Road Team is 86-55 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 22-48 ATS at home in the previous 70 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -1.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: Sunny, 81 degrees. Light wind.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 24, Redskins 16
Buccaneers -3 -130 (3 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$390
Under 51 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Redskins 16, Buccaneers 3

New England Patriots (7-2) at Tennessee Titans (4-4)
Line: Patriots by 6. Total: 46.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -3.
Sunday, Nov 11, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. The NFL trade deadline was great this year. Several key players were traded, with the Packers and Redskins making a shocking deal involving Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.

And yet, it made me yearn for more deals. I don’t know about you, but it would’ve been unreal if there were double the number of trades.

So, how do we make this happen? I’d say extending the trade deadline by a few weeks would do wonders. Not only would it allow teams to further assess whom they’d want to trade – think the Raiders want to unload some bums after that dreadful Thursday night performance? – but it would also permit every team to have a bye week to integrate a player. The Cowboys and Eagles were able to do this with Amari Cooper and Golden Tate, respectively, but buyers like the Rams, Chiefs and Vikings couldn’t because their bye week was scheduled after the trade deadline. I think it’d be fair for the trade deadline to be on the final week of byes so that every team would have this sort of a luxury.

Even if the NFL doesn’t consider this important, I think it’s in all the teams’ interest to have as much time as possible to make trades. So, let’s push back the trade deadline to Week 12!

By the way, you can check out our NFL Trade Deadline video here:

Enjoy my Cobra Kai Halloween costume. Strike first, strike hard, no mercy!

2. Unfortunately, I don’t have any faith in the NFL making the right decision regarding the NFL trade deadline because they’ve already screwed up something else: They’ve increased the number of London games to four.

OK, maybe I shouldn’t make assumptions. I’m fine with London games. As long as they’re at 1 p.m.

I absolutely hate 9:30 a.m. London games. On a personal level, a London game means I have a 21-hour workday on Sunday with no breaks. Don’t get me wrong; I love football, but 21-hour workdays are f***ing exhausting!

But the 9:30 a.m. games are horrible for others as well. I’ve written about this scenario before: The West Coast fantasy football player may have to wake up at 6:15 a.m. to make a change to their lineup if a player in the London contest happens to be a game-time decision, a la Melvin Gordon a few weeks ago. People don’t want to wake up at 6:15 a.m. on a weekend just to make a change to their fantasy lineup. It’s bad business. You’d think Roger Goodell would realize that, but he’s too busy smelling his own farts to understand this concept.

Also, the 9:30 a.m. games make little sense for people in England. Marco F., an e-mailer from Europe, sent me the following that I’d like to share with you:

The 9:30 a.m. games. You’ve already wrote a lot about those games, and I mostly agree with you. It’s nice for us Europeans to have an afternoon game on a rainy Sunday when you would watch TV anyway, but that’s it. I can see that the NFL is trying to generate a fan base so they can make more money in the future, but I think they could still accomplish that with “night games.” It might even be easier! I’ve been to those London games maybe five times, and while the game was the most important part of the trip, I still wanted to see the city, even the fifth time. If the game is in the evening local time, you can still see the Big Ben and go to the London Eye at noon and then go to the game. But if the game is that early, you probably just go to the game that day. The thing is, I call myself a “hardcore fan”, for European standards. I’ve followed the NFL for the last 10 years, I’ve even played Football for a Swiss team the last eight years. But most of the people here don’t know more than than two current starting QBs. They watch the Super Bowl, and they go to a London game once in a while, because they can combine it with a trip to London.

Goodell may hate me – we’ve been banned from the combine for years – but hopefully he’ll listen to a European e-mailer who has experienced this first-hand.

3. And yes, we’ve been banned from the combine. It’s ridiculous.

I’ll have this story in my book, which I’m hoping to release before the 2019 season. It’s mostly written and edited, but I want to add a chapter or two and do one more final edit. This book has tons of fun football stories as well as some rankings that I hope you’ll all like. It’s tough to work on it during the season, so I’m going to put a lot of time into it come January. I’ll have updates about this in the future!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: If there’s one coach who knows how to exploit a liability, it’s Bill Belichick. And as it so happens, Belichick is very familiar with Tennessee’s greatest defensive liability, which would be Malcolm Butler. The former Patriot cornerback has been awful this year. He was torched for a touchdown at Dallas, and that was against the struggling Dak Prescott. I can’t even imagine what Tom Brady is going to do to him.

Belichick and Brady want their revenge against Butler, who sabotaged a potential Super Bowl victory over the Eagles, and I believe they’ll get it. I also see Julian Edelman getting open versus another former pupil of Belichick’s, Logan Ryan.

Historically, the way to slow down Brady is to generate pressure on him without sending blitzers. The Giants, of course, were able to do this twice in the Super Bowl. The Titans have a very talented defensive line that dominated up front versus the Cowboys, but New England protects Brady much better than Dallas does with Dak Prescott. Brady will also be able to hit his open receivers consistently, unlike Prescott.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Belichick is the master at taking away one aspect of an opposing scoring unit, and I have to believe he’ll focus on yet another former player of his, Dion Lewis. The dynamic back had a big performance against the Cowboys, but Belichick will make sure that doesn’t happen.

Belichick will force Marcus Mariota to beat his talented secondary, and I have doubts about that happening. Stephon Gilmore is enjoying a terrific season, and he’ll take away Corey Davis. Fellow cornerback Jason McCourty, who is also playing very well, will clamp down the other side. The Titans don’t have the talented receivers to beat New England’s stellar outside corners, though Tajae Sharpe could have some success in the slot.

With his receivers held in check, Mariota will have to take matters into his own hands, or legs, rather. He’ll be effective as a scrambler, though he’ll see some interior pressure from Trey Flowers and will take sacks as a result.

RECAP: The sharps have already made a bet on the Titans, taking this spread down from +7 to +6.5. I imagine that they consider getting all of these points with an underrated Tennessee squad to be the smart thing to do, but I strongly disagree.

It’s never smart to wager against Brady after the first few weeks of the season (elite, veteran teams in every sport are often aloof to begin the year.) If you’ve just bet Brady blindly starting in 2003 (when it became apparent that he was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL) and beyond, excluding the month of September, you’d be 108-62-7 against the spread. That’s a 63.5-percent covering rate. Now, tell me, is it a “sharp” thing to bet against Brady in this instance?

I don’t even see why this would be a good opportunity to fade Brady regardless, as everything seems to benefit the Patriots. I like the Titans as an underrated squad, but they’ve had one fewer day to prepare a game plan against Belichick, which sounds like a losing proposition. Also, I expect the Patriots to be extremely prepared despite being large road favorites. They’re heading into their bye. I like good teams with an impending bye, as they usually tend to be especially focused. I believed this to be true before even looking up how Brady has performed heading into a regular-season bye. Brady is 11-4 against the spread in his career in such situations, and the last time he failed to cover a pre-bye spread was in 2011 when he beat the Cowboys by only four points as a 6.5-point favorite.

I know I’m going against the sharp action here, but the Patriots at less than a touchdown seem way too good to pass up. I’m betting four units on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Titans at +7, but not +6.5. Regardless, I still really like the Patriots. I hate all the public money on them, but Tom Brady has an extensive history of covering spreads when there’s been a ton of money on his team. The Patriots are simply much better than the Titans and should be focused because they’re heading into their bye.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Titans will be missing right tackle Jack Conklin, so I’m sure Bill Belichick will find a way to expose that liability. I still love New England. I’m going to wait until Sunday morning for the best number, which is currently -6.5 -110 at 5Dimes.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Rob Gronkowski is out, as expected, but Sony Michel will play. The red zone offense should improve with a real running game. Bookmaker has -6 -114 available, which I’ll round to -115. It’s worth paying up to 10 cents for the key number of six, so -6 -114 is a bargain compared to -6.5 -110.

The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.

I expect the Patriots to be very focused with a bye coming up.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

There is an overwhelming amount of action on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 80% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Tom Brady is 229-70 as a starter (170-115 ATS).

Tom Brady is 11-4 ATS heading into a regular-season bye.

Patriots are 14-17 ATS as road favorites since 2013.

Opening Line: Patriots -6.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 49 degrees. Light wind.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Titans 17
Patriots -6 -115 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$460
Over 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Titans 34, Patriots 10

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-5) at Indianapolis Colts (3-5)
Line: Colts by 3. Total: 48.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -2.5 -125.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Colts -3.
Sunday, Nov 11, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: None.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. Let’s get to the initial college football playoff rankings!

I actually agreed with the top four teams in the playoff rankings. So, I guess it’s good that the college football playoff is comprised of only four teams because the order after that didn’t make much sense to me. Some may argue Michigan over Georgia is strange, but that was nothing to Kentucky being ninth. Yes, Kentucky, whose sole impressive win came when Florida was missing one of its top defensive players. Kentucky, whose quarterback can’t throw the ball at all. Kentucky, a team somehow ahead of Ohio State, even though the Buckeyes would be favored by a touchdown on a neutral field.

As for Georgia being behind Michigan, I realized that it didn’t matter that much because the Bulldogs will be locked into a playoff spot if they win out and defeat Alabama in the SEC Championship. That’s basically Georgia’s first-round playoff game. If they can beat the Tide, they deserve to be in, and if they can’t, that was their chance. It’s cool that it works out that way so the committee doesn’t have to worry about where to rank Georgia.

2. Despite some screw-ups following the top four in the initial rankings, there absolutely needs to be at least eight teams in the playoffs, and the poster child for that requirement is Central Florida.

The Golden Knights were undefeated last year and once again have a zero in the loss column. If they’re undefeated again, it would be embarrassing for the NCAA not to have them in the playoff once again. Unfortunately, it’s pretty clear that Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Georgia/Michigan are all better than Central Florida, which is why we need eight spots to include them in the field. Otherwise, they can keep saying that they’re national champions, and they’ll continue to gain supporters. They have one in me, as I consider them to be 2017 co-national champions with Alabama even though I believe they were far inferior to the Tide.

Now, if you’re in the camp that considers all of this nonsense, and scoffs at the thought of Central Florida being in the college football playoff, I don’t exactly blame you. However, if you have this mindset, I think you should also acknowledge that Central Florida, every team in its conference, and every other school in each other mid-major, should be demoted to I-AA. There’s no reason for Central Florida to be in I-A if they aren’t allowed to compete with the Alabamas and the Clemsons in the playoffs.

3. If you somehow didn’t see the LSU girl, she was the talk of the Alabama-LSU game. She became an instant meme for her disappointed look into the camera. Here she is, in case you haven’t seen her:

College is fun, they said. You�ll love it, they said. pic.twitter.com/iuw01Rq3BR
— Jason Isbell (@JasonIsbell) November 4, 2018

I love memes, so this look was more entertaining than the actual game, though perhaps that was because it was a blowout. But anyone who can create the perfect meme from her will be my absolute hero. In fact, I’ll allow you to post anything that’s not super controversial in here or the NFL notes section.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: There’s some concern with Blake Bortles’ non-throwing shoulder leading up to this game, but it sounds as though he’ll be fine. By “concern,” I actually meant relief, as the Jaguars would be better off starting someone even worse than Bortles to strengthen their ability to potentially land Justin Herbert in the 2019 NFL Draft. I don’t know how Bortles hurt his non-throwing shoulder, though I imagine it may have involved playing flip cup in England.

Bortles should play, and it sounds like Leonard Fournette will be on the field as well. Fournette has a solid matchup, as the Colts aren’t very good against the run. The problem is the offensive line, which has not performed well since losing its first- and second-string left tackles. Still, Fournette is a very talented runner and will be eager to dominate after such an extended absence.

Fournette’s presence will ease pressure off Bortles, who should be able to successfully throw his patented checkdowns. The Colts don’t have the best talent in the secondary, so these checkdowns could develop into longer plays.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts really struggled for a stretch when they were blown out by both the Patriots and Colts. Their receivers dropped a total of 19 passes in three games, as T.Y. Hilton was sorely missed. It’s no coincidence that Indianapolis has performed much better with Hilton on the field.

It might be difficult for Andrew Luck to locate Hilton all that often in this game because Jalen Ramsey will be draped all over him. Luck will at least have the time in the pocket to find his other options. The Jaguars dominated the Colts in two matchups last year because Indianapolis’ dreadful blocking unit couldn’t keep the Jacksonville defensive linemen out of the backfield, but the Colts’ front is so much better this season.

Luck will be able to spread the ball around to all of his receivers and tight ends, and that includes Jack Doyle, who also missed action earlier in the year. Meanwhile, Marlon Mack is someone the Jaguars will have to respect out of the backfield. Mack has performed well in his previous two games, though he faces a much tougher challenge against Jacksonville’s terrific front seven.

RECAP: I don’t know what to make of this game if Bortles is healthy and Fournette is on the field again. Under those circumstances, I’d think the Colts deserve to be three-point favorites, and that’s exactly what they are.

This will be a zero-unit pick on the Colts for now, as I think Indianapolis is marginally superior. However, if Fournette is slated to miss this game, or if it doesn’t seem that Bortles is close to 100 percent, I’ll definitely consider a wager on the Colts.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp action on the Jaguars, but that won’t entice me to switch my pick. Barring any major developments on the injury reports, I’ll be on the Colts for a non-wager.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jaguars will be missing A.J. Bouye, which would’ve been a disaster a couple of weeks ago when nickel cornerback D.J. Hayden was also hurt, but Hayden will be back from injury. The same goes for Leonard Fournette, who has been removed from the injury report. This is still a toss-up for me, so I’ll continue to be on Indianapolis for no units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Most of the NFL Network analysts picked the Jaguars. I wonder how many of them knew the Colts happen to be favored. There was early sharp money on the Jaguars, but more pro action came in on Indianapolis. I’d still take the Colts, but I think there’s a good chance this game pushes.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 59% (12,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Andrew Luck is 25-14 ATS at home.

Andrew Luck is 16-8 ATS against divisional opponents.

Opening Line: Colts -3.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Colts 24, Jaguars 20
Colts -3 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Colts 29, Jaguars 26

Detroit Lions (3-5) at Chicago Bears (5-3)
Line: Bears by 7. Total: 44.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bears -7.
Sunday, Nov 11, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Bears.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Aaron Hernandez, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!

DETROIT OFFENSE: It’s still difficult to believe that Matthew Stafford was sacked 10 times against the Vikings. The Lions have talented blockers, but Stafford was still harassed frequently in the backfield. It must be noted that four of Stafford’s sacks were the result of great coverage. Given what happened at the trade deadline, that can’t be a surprise.

It turns out that trading a quarterback’s most reliable receiver causes an offense to capsize. Who would’ve thunk it? Stafford no longer having Golden Tate at his disposal has severely hindered him. Tate being on the field would give the Lions some major big-play ability after we saw what Albert Wilson did to Chicago a few weeks ago. However, the Bears can cover Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones well on the outside, while their terrific defensive line puts even more heat on Stafford.

With Stafford being swarmed and not having his safety valve available, he’ll need his running backs to do more this week. Kerryon Johnson has looked great at times this year, but Chicago’s terrific front seven tends to keep running backs in check. The linebackers, meanwhile, do a good job on receiving backs, so Johnson and Theo Riddick won’t be able to produce very much.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Lions have struggled against the run this year, but they were better against it last week, thanks to Snacks Harrison’s presence in the trenches. Harrison has a great mismatch to take advantage of in this contest, as the Bears won’t have right guard Kyle Long. As a result, the Bears will have trouble establishing the run.

Fortunately for Chicago, the rest of Detroit’s defense sucks. The linebackers and safeties are atrocious, so I expect Tarik Cohen and Trey Burton to both have stellar receiving performances. The same can be said for the receivers, excluding Allen Robinson. The No. 1 wideout should be back this week, but he’ll have to battle Darius Slay, which is not a good matchup for him.

Of course, Mitchell Trubisky will have to actually deliver the ball to his receivers, which could be problematic, given that he tends to throw off his back foot quite frequently. Fortunately for Trubisky, he’s very capable of running circles around opposing defenses with his great scrambling talent, and I imagine he’ll pick up several first downs that way.

RECAP: I brought this up last week, but the rule with the Lions is that you pick them versus bad opponents and go against them when they’re battling a good team. They fail to play up to superior competition, which can be seen by their 2-13 spread record as underdogs of 6.5 or more since 2011.

It’s worth noting that the advance spread on this game was Chicago -4, but I believe the appropriate adjustment was made for the Tate trade. The Lions are a fundamentally different team without him. Thus, I don’t think we’re getting any sort of line value with the Lions.

That said, I’m not going to bet the Bears. I’m worried about possible complacency. They’re coming off a blowout win, and they have to battle the Vikings next week. I know the Lions are a divisional foe, which could keep them focused, but they just watched Minnesota destroy Detroit, which could make them think that they’ll have an easy victory.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Khalil Mack and Allen Robinson appear as though they’re at full strength, which is a huge boost for the Bears. Chicago should be able to win this game easily, though I worry a bit about a possible look-ahead situation with a Sunday night battle against the Vikings coming up next week.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Lions won’t have Darius Slay, which is great news for Allen Robinson. The 15-mph winds could make things difficult for Matthew Stafford as well. I’d put a unit on Chicago, but I have slight concerns about them looking ahead to Minnesota next week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been some sharp money coming in on the Bears. They bet Chicago heavily at -6.5 and a bit at -7. I don’t blame them, as the Lions won’t have their best defensive player, while Chicago is fully healthy again. But again, I worry a bit about the Bears looking ahead to Minnesota.

The Psychology. Edge: Lions.

The Bears have to play the Vikings next week.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
I thought there’d be more money on the Bears.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 58% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

History: Lions have won 9 of the last 10 meetings.

Lions are 10-19 ATS on the road vs. teams with winning records since 2011.

Lions are 2-13 ATS as underdogs of 6 or more since 2011.

Opening Line: Bears -6.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Cloudy, 40 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Bears 24, Lions 13
Bears -7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bears 34, Lions 22

Arizona Cardinals (2-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-1)
Line: Chiefs by 16. Total: 49.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -14.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -15.5.
Sunday, Nov 11, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

Video of the Week: I’m sure many of you have heard that some people find particular video games very controversial. Here’s a video where people make it seem like a certain system will cause the End of Times:

Not what you were expecting, huh? I can’t even imagine how these losers would’ve reacted if they saw someone playing Grand Theft Auto. Oh, and forget the Super Nintendo; the news anchor’s hair is the most egregious thing in this video.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It’s easy to say that the Chiefs will score tons of points against the Cardinals, so I’ll just say it: The Chiefs will score tons of points against the Cardinals.

The Cardinals do three things well on this side of the ball. They defend tight ends effectively. They can shut down No. 1 receivers because of Patrick Peterson’s terrific coverage. And they can rush effectively on the blind side with Chanlder Jones. So, will Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Patrick Mahomes struggle? No. Kelce is the best tight end in the NFL right now and happens to be unstoppable unless Bill Belichick and his complex game plans are involved. Hill moves around a lot, so I don’t know if Peterson will follow him into the slot. And Mahomes is playing at an insanely high level, so Jones’ pressure won’t rattle him.

Besides, the Chiefs have a great mismatch themselves in Kareem Hunt going against one of the weaker run defenses in the NFL. If it weren’t for Todd Gurley, we’d be talking about what an amazing year Hunt has been enjoying, and I expect his terrific play to continue in this game.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals will need to keep pace with the Chiefs to have a shot of at least covering this colossal spread. But despite Kansas City’s defense being pretty poor, I just don’t see that happening.

Josh Rosen’s inexperience playing in tough environments like this is an issue, but the big problem for Arizona is its offensive line. The Cardinals can’t block at four of five positions, which is a big problem against the Chiefs, who can put great pressure on opposing quarterbacks, especially if Justin Houston is on the field. It sounds like Houston might be available after missing the past several weeks of action.

The Chiefs struggle to defend the run, as well as tight ends and receiving threats out of the backfield, so I could see David Johnson having a big game. However, the Cardinals will often suffer a negative play on most of their drives because of the incompetence of their offensive line, and such instances will kill their efforts to engage in a shootout with the best team in the NFL.

RECAP: This spread is insanely high. It’s tied for the greatest line we’ve seen this season. The Vikings were also -16.5 as home favorites back in Week 3, but they actually lost outright to the Bills.

I don’t envision the Chiefs dropping a game to Arizona. However, there’s a chance we won’t see their “A” game. They have to battle the Rams in Mexico City next week, so they could be more focused on that game. Plus, do you know how many times the Chiefs have won a game by more than 16 points this year? I’ll give you a sentence to come up with an answer. OK, the answer is just one, which was their blowout victory over the Bengals several weeks ago. They’ve won a couple of contests by exactly 16, but only one by more than 16.

This all sounds like I’ll be on the Cardinals. Nope. The Chiefs are the play for me, albeit for zero units. This game is just too much of a mismatch, and I don’t think Arizona will be able to block Kansas City. I could see the Chiefs winning by 17-plus, even if we get their “C” effort. This is a bad spot to bet them, but it seems like they could be the correct side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Justin Houston will return for the Chiefs, but this spread is still way too high for a team that might bring its “C” effort to this game. Then again, it wouldn’t surprise me if Kansas City won 34-13, or something of that nature. The sharps have not touched the huge dog.

SATURDAY NOTES: Some sharp action has come in on the Cardinals, dragging the line all the way down to +16. This isn’t a surprise, as the pros love large underdogs. I would still take the Chiefs, but this spread is too high.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was some sharp money on Arizona earlier, while the public has bet the Chiefs heavily Sunday morning.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.

The Chiefs play the Rams next week.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

The sportsbooks are trying their hardest to keep money off the Chiefs with this high spread, and it’s working for the most part.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 77% (13,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Opening Line: Chiefs -16.5.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 40 degrees. Light wind.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Chiefs 38, Cardinals 17
Chiefs -16 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 26, Cardinals 14

Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games
LA Chargers at Oakland, Miami at Green Bay, Seattle at LA Rams, Dallas at Philadelphia, NY Giants at San Francisco

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)

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