NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2018



NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 8-7-1 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2018): 8-8 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2018): 8-6-1 (+$280)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2018): 10-4-1 (+$1,415)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2018): 6-7-2 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2018): 7-7 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2018): 6-8 (+$510)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2018): 5-8 (-$1,445)

NFL Picks (2018): 77-72-6 (-$140)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$3,790)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 11, 11:35 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 10 NFL Picks - Early Games








Los Angeles Chargers (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (1-7)
Line: Chargers by 10. Total: 50.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -7.5.
Walt's Calculated Line: Chargers -4.5.
Sunday, Nov 11, 4:05 PM


The Game. Edge: Chargers.

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To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady's Haircuts!

OAKLAND OFFENSE: It's easy to look at a result and determine something just based on the score. Take the Thursday night affair between the Raiders and 49ers, for example. San Francisco won that game, 34-3, so one could conclude that the 49ers were definitely the right side. However, the 49ers are not 31 points better than the Raiders on their home field, so it's important to dig deep and figure out what happened, exactly.

I thought it was obvious that the game turned on Oakland's opening drive, which was actually quite promising. Left tackle Kolton Miller, who has played well when healthy this year, suffered an injury and had to leave the field. He tried to return to action, but was soon taken out of the game for good. This worsened an already-shaky offensive line exponentially, as the Raiders were suddenly missing their top two tackles. They couldn't block the 49ers at all, which is why Oakland didn't score a single point following the opening possession despite battling a pedestrian defense.

Whether or not the Raiders are productive in this game depends on Miller's status. If he's ready to go at 100-percent capacity, the Raiders will be able to move the chains. The Chargers can't cover the middle of the field because of shoddy linebacker play, so Jared Cook could have a big game. However, if Miller is out or hobbled, Carr will once again see tons of pressure, as Melvin Ingram will have a dominant performance rushing from the blind side.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Of course, Philip Rivers will perform well despite any possible injuries. The Raiders have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and it has gotten even worse in the wake of their decision to cut Bruce Irvin. Granted, Irvin's effort level was low, but he was still one of the more-talented players Oakland had in its front seven. Now, the Raiders won't be able to rush the passer whatsoever.

Enjoying plenty of time in the pocket, Rivers will easily dissect Oakland's severely struggling secondary. Rivers was a near-perfect 22-of-27 for 339 yards and two touchdowns when he battled the Raiders the first time back in Week 5. I don't see why Rivers would have a radically different output in the rematch.

Melvin Gordon also figures to post huge numbers. The Raiders are good against the run - they limited Gordon to just 58 rushing yards on 19 carries in Week 5 - but Gordon will expose Oakland's abysmal linebackers with his receiving ability. In that same game, Gordon had 62 receiving yards - his highest such total this year if you exclude the season opener versus Kansas City.

RECAP: If you're into line value, there definitely happens to be some with the Raiders. They were +7.5 on the advance spread, yet now they're +10. I don't think enough has happened in the past week to justify shifting the line 2.5 points. This spread has moved because the 49ers demolished the Raiders on national TV, but again, there was a reason for that. San Francisco also wanted the game more than the Raiders, who thought they could just show up and beat some kid named Nick Mullens.

I expect the Raiders to put forth greater effort in this game, and I like the +10. Unfortunately, it's not appealing enough for me to bet on it. I just don't trust Oakland. The Raiders have such terrible depth that they repeatedly suffer fourth-quarter collapses despite being competitive earlier in the game. We've seen this when they've played the Rams, Broncos, Dolphins and Colts. They were leading during the middle stages of those games, yet have lost those contests by an average of 10.75 points because of their horrible depth.

The Chargers are overrated and will probably be unfocused because they crushed Oakland already this year, so I expect the Raiders to compete well if Miller can play. They might even be up at halftime. However, even if that's the case, they could easily blow a lead and lose by two touchdowns, failing to cover this high spread.

I'll be on the Raiders for zero units if Miller can play. If not, I'll probably take the Chargers for a non-wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I'm still eager to see the injury reports regarding Kolton Miller's status. Miller's health will determine my pick, as the Raiders won't be able to block whatsoever without him.

SATURDAY NOTES: Kolton Miller, Kelechi Osemele and Rodney Hudson will all be on the field, meaning Oakland's entire offensive line, save for Donald Penn, will be intact for the first time in a while. Given that fact, I'm going to bump up the Raiders for a unit, as this spread is just way too high. BetUS has +10.5 -115 available.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The best +10 line is at Bovada, which has -105 juice posted. BetUS still has +10.5 -115 available. It's worth paying five cents for the third-tier key number of 10.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Chargers will be without one of their cornerbacks, but that doesn't really matter. What actually matters is that Oakland's offensive line appears to be intact, save for Donald Penn, which is why I like them for a unit.






The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.
The Chargers could be a no-show in this game after clobbering the Raiders once.


The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
Does anyone want to bet on Oakland?
  • Percentage of money on San Angeles: 80% (21,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Chargers have won the last 3 meetings.
  • Derek Carr is 5-2 ATS as an underdog of 6+ since 2015.
  • Opening Line: Chargers -10.
  • Opening Total: 50.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 66 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 10 NFL Pick: Chargers 34, Raiders 27
    Raiders +10.5 -115 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$115
    Over 50 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Chargers 20, Raiders 6




    Miami Dolphins (5-4) at Green Bay Packers (3-4-1)
    Line: Packers by 10.5. Total: 48.5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: No Line (Tannehill).
    Walt's Calculated Line: Packers -6 (Tannehill) or Packers -10 (Osweiler).
    Sunday, Nov 11, 4:25 PM


    The Game. Edge: Packers.

    If you're unaware of this, you can publish your own articles on this Web site and have them promoted via Twitter, Facebook and this page! Check out our Open Rant feature, where articles get promoted all the time. Some readers' articles have gotten more than 3,000 views, so if you want to get your opinion heard, here's a great way for you to do so!

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    Make sure you get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2018 NFL Survivor Pool. You have until Sunday to register, so do it soon! Of the 1,225 starting players, we lost 723 because of the Saints and Lions. The Vikings then knocked out a bunch of people, and we're down to just 24 souls remaining because of Dallas' loss to Tennessee on Monday night.

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    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It appeared as though the Packers were going to possibly pull the upset in Foxboro this past Sunday night, but Aaron Jones fumbled near the red zone when the game was tied at 17. The Patriots took over and marched down the field to get the game-winning score. It was a shame for Jones, who had played well in that game up until that point. The Packers will need Jones to rebound, as the Dolphins aren't particularly good against the run.

    Jones being able to pound the ball successfully will take pressure off Aaron Rodgers, who may not have his right tackle against a team that can put heat on opposing passers from the edge. Bryan Bulaga suffered a knee injury versus the Patriots. A report says that he'll be fine, but whether that's for later on this season or this upcoming game remains to be seen.

    That said, it's difficult to envision the Packers not being productive offensively. The Dolphins have just one viable cornerback in Xavien Howard, so while Davante Adams will be covered well, Rodgers' other weapons should be productive. This includes Jimmy Graham, who figures to dominate Miami's mediocre linebacking corps.

    MIAMI OFFENSE: Bulaga wasn't the only Packer to suffer an injury at New England. Linebacker Blake Martinez also missed some action, which was huge. Martinez managed to return to the field near the end of the game, but by then, it was already too late. Martinez's absence compounded the Packers' inability to defend the middle of the field, as safety Jermaine Whitehead was ejected for slapping a player's helmet.

    Martinez will be back on the field against the Dolphins, but I'm not even sure the Packers would need him if Brock Osweiler starts another game. It sounds as though Ryan Tannehill will miss yet another week, so it'll once again be Osweiler, who has struggled mightily since enjoying a rare quality performance against Chicago. Osweiler should continue to play poorly, especially if his left tackle, Laremy Tunsil, is out. Tunsil is banged up, so his absence would allow the Packers to flood the backfield. Osweiler didn't need more things to hinder him, as his accuracy was a big issue in a game the Dolphins should've lost to the Jets.

    Tunsil being out would hurt Miami's rushing attack as well. I don't even like the Dolphins' ground game against the Packers with Tunsil! Frank Gore is wasting carries, as Kenyan Drake needs more work, and Green Bay happens to be pretty potent against the rush.

    RECAP: There are a couple of things going against the Packers in this matchup. First of all, they have a game against the Seahawks coming up in four days, so we may not see their "A" effort. I understand that at 3-4-1, they need to win, but preparing for a short work week is very difficult, and teams often get tripped up in this situation. Second, there's a ton of action on the Packers. This ordinarily wouldn't be a huge problem, but as I wrote earlier, I don't like the idea of betting on publicly backed sides this week after what happened to the sportsbooks this past Sunday.

    However, I just can't resist fading Osweiler. He's so bad. It was a great crime that the Jets didn't cover last week, as they outgained the Dolphins by 120 net yards and limited them to just 3.1 yards per play. Sam Darnold gift-wrapped a victory for the Dolphins with four interceptions, but Rodgers obviously won't do that.

    I hate that the Packers have to play in four days, but I think I'm comfortable betting two units on them.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I thought about dropping this to one unit, but I'll keep it on two. I know C.J. Beathard had his way with Green Bay's defense, but I don't expect Brock Osweiler to have the same success because the Packers are healthier now.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Bryan Bulaga is listed as questionable, but practiced fully Friday, which is great news. Conversely, the Dolphins have offensive line issues. Guard Ted Larsen is out, while tackles Laremy Tunsil and Ja'Wuan James are game-time decisions. If at least one is out, I may increase the unit count. If both are out, I'll definitely be doing so.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Wow, all the -10s are gone. Every sportsbook I'm a member of has -10.5 posted, though you can buy -10 for -120 at 5Dimes. The line of -10.5 -110 is better than that. I'll hold off until 4 p.m. for a better number.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I said I'd increase my wager if both Dolphin tackles were out. That is the case, as both Laremy Tunsil and Ja'Wuan James are inactive. However, the Packers will be missing two of their top three receivers, which could hinder their offense in a potential flat spot. I'm going to drop this to one unit, especially with all the -10s gone. The best line I see is -10.5 -110 at BetUS.


    The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.
    The Packers have to battle the Seahawks in just four days.


    The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
    This can't be a surprise.
  • Percentage of money on Green Bay: 80% (21,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Underdog is 82-59 ATS in the Dolphins' last 141 games.
  • Packers are 38-27 ATS at home since 2010.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 84-57 ATS since 2009.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 24-13 ATS after a loss (10-6 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).
  • Opening Line: Packers -9.
  • Opening Total: 47.5.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 35 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.


    Week 10 NFL Pick: Packers 27, Dolphins 13
    Packers -10.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 48.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Packers 31, Dolphins 12




    Seattle Seahawks (4-4) at Los Angeles Rams (8-1)
    Line: Rams by 10. Total: 51.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -8.
    Walt's Calculated Line: Rams -7.5.
    Sunday, Nov 11, 4:25 PM


    The Game. Edge: Rams.

    Emmitt on the Brink Season 11 is underway! In Episode 9, Emmitt finally meets with Roger Goodell about removing the statues from all the stadiums in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Patriots finally discover why DeShone Kizer has been struggling so much.

    A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week's jerks entry is about Halloween - from annoying kids, to dumb parents, to something terrifying that I saw.

    LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Jared Goff didn't have much of a problem dissecting the Seahawks' defense the last time he played against them. He misfired on just nine occasions, going 23-of-32 for 321 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. One of the picks was on a Hail Mary right before halftime, so he really had just one interception. Sure, the Seahawks didn't have star linebacker K.J. Wright available for that game, but Goff didn't have Brandin Cooks either, as Cooks was knocked out early in the game with a concussion.

    I don't think enough has changed in the past five weeks to alter what will happen as far as Goff throwing on the Rams. He's extremely well protected, and his three dynamic receivers are healthy. The Seahawks' safeties are playing well, but their cornerbacks have struggled all year.

    That said, the Seahawks should do a good job on Todd Gurley once again. Gurley scored thrice on the Seahawks in Week 5, but he had one of his worst yardage outputs of the year, as he rushed for 77 yards on 22 carries while catching four passes for 36 receiving yards. Wright was not on the field in that game, so he'll help Seattle do even better against Gurley. Wright is a terrific run defender, and he's also good in coverage. Limiting Gurley will be huge for the Seahawks, as they'll be able to prevent the Rams from running out the clock in the second half.

    SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks were able to keep pace with the Rams in the initial meeting, as Russell Wilson torched Los Angeles' secondary. Wilson was 13-of-21 for 198 yards and three touchdowns. The yardage isn't great, but Wilson beat cornerback Marcus Peters for some deep passes.

    The same thing should happen in this game, as Peters is still struggling with an injury. In fact, Wilson could be even better because he barely had Doug Baldwin at his disposal in that game. Baldwin, if you recall, was coming off an injury just prior to that contest, and he wasn't healthy at all. Baldwin has been better since, so he could have a great performance versus the Rams' struggling secondary.

    The Seahawks should also be able to run on the Rams. Los Angeles' linebacking corps has struggled all year, while Seattle's ground attack came alive last week when both Chris Carson and Mike Davis showed well versus the Chargers. Carson got banged up late, so it could be all Davis, who had 107 total yards on San Angeles. Davis is an effective receiver - seven catches against the Chargers - so he'll be able to abuse the Rams' struggling linebackers that way.

    RECAP: I've been listing the Rams as overrated on the NFL Overrated and Underrated page all year, and I've been right on the money about them. That may sound strange on the surface because the Rams are 8-1, but the important question is, how many games have they covered this season? Since Week 3? Only one!

    The Rams have been costing the public money since Week 3 because they're overrated. They have some incredible offensive weapons, and their offensive line is fantastic, but their defense sucks. Their secondary can't cover, while their linebacking corps is pedestrian. They also lack an edge rush, and I don't expect Dante Fowler to help very much. Teams have moved the chains against them all year. Save for the Cardinals, who were a train wreck under Sam Bradford, and the 49ers, who similarly sucked with C.J. Beathard, every opponent the Rams have faced has averaged six or more yards per play against them this season. That's absolutely horrible, and it would explain why the Rams are 1-4 against the spread in their previous five games. In fact, the only winning team the Rams have covered against this year is the Chargers. Otherwise, their spread victories have come against the Raiders, Cardinals and 49ers.

    With that in mind, this spread is way too high. The Seahawks were able to nearly defeat the Rams in their first meeting, losing by two. Granted, that game was in Seattle, but the Seahawks tend to play well in divisional road games. They're 5-1-1 as divisional visitors over the past few years, which includes a win in Los Angeles last year even though the Rams were the better team back then.

    I don't expect the Seahawks to win outright, but it could definitely happen. I would, however, be shocked if this were a blowout. Wilson is a great quarterback, and signal-callers of his caliber are automatic as large underdogs like this. Wilson is 16-7 against the spread as an underdog, period, and that number is even better if he's getting six points or more; he's a perfect 4-0 ATS in those situations in regular-season games. Furthermore, the Wilson-led Seahawks seldom get blown out. In the regular season, the Seahawks, under Wilson, have lost by double digits only twice. That makes sense, as Wilson is great at generating touchdown drives if a game is out of hand. We saw that last week versus the Chargers. He nearly led Seattle back from the dead.

    This spread is too large for another reason as well. We've gone through the Rams being overrated and Wilson always keeping games close, but the third factor is that the Rams will be battling the Chiefs on Monday night next week. Given that they've already beaten the Seahawks, they likely won't bring their "A" game the second time, as they have to prepare to slow down Patrick Mahomes in a different country. Given that the people in the stands won't be on their side - Seattle fans are going to flood that stadium - the motivation just won't be there. Meanwhile, the Seahawks need this victory much more than the Rams do, as falling to 4-5 would really hurt their playoff chances.

    If you couldn't tell, I love the Seahawks. In fact, they're my November NFL Pick of the Month. I hit my October NFL Pick of the Month by backing a great quarterback as a huge underdog against the Rams, and I'm going to follow that formula once again.

    I'm actually going to lock this in now. Perhaps this line will rise, but there's a huge difference between +10 and +9.5, so I don't want to risk losing out on a key number. It's exactly +10 -110 at both Bookmaker and 5Dimes, so I'm betting eight units on Seattle at that number.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I'm shocked this spread hasn't fallen yet. I thought the sharps would be all over Seattle, but they haven't touched this game yet. There's still time for that to change though.

    SATURDAY NOTES: The Seahawks have a couple of key players who are questionable in K.J. Wright, Bradley McDougald and D.J. Fluker. This is slightly concerning, but I don't regret my eight-unit wager on Seattle. There's been some sharp money on the Seahawks.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread has dropped to +9 because of sharp money on the Seahawks. It's worth noting that the wildfires in California could distract the Rams.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread hasn't moved since the morning, when it fell to +9. This morning's slate has been horrible, thanks to the Buccaneers constantly screwing up in the red zone, and the Jets and Patriots both being no-shows, so hopefully the Seahawks make up for it.


    The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.
    The Rams already beat the Seahawks. They're coming off a tough game in New Orleans, and they battle the Chiefs in Mexico next Monday night.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Seattle: 58% (26,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • History: Rams have won 6 of the last 9 meetings.
  • Pete Carroll is 13-6 ATS after losing as a favorite.
  • Pete Carroll is 6-3 ATS in same-season revenge games.
  • Seahawks are 37-49 ATS on the road since 2006 if they're not coming off an away loss.
  • Seahawks are 9-16 ATS on the road vs. teams that average 24+ ppg since 2007.
  • Russell Wilson is 14-8 ATS after a loss as long as he's not favored by -10 or more.
  • Russell Wilson is 16-7 ATS as an underdog.
  • Opening Line: Rams -10.
  • Opening Total: 51.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 75 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 10 NFL Pick: Rams 34, Seahawks 31
    Seahawks +10 (8 Units - November NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$800
    Over 51 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Rams 36, Seahawks 31






    Dallas Cowboys (3-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)
    Line: Eagles by 7. Total: 44.5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -6.
    Walt's Calculated Line: Eagles -9.
    Sunday, Nov 11, 8:20 PM


    The Game. Edge: Eagles.

    I'm going to devote this section to Ross Avila. If this is your first time reading this, and you don't know who Ross is, he's a douche who harassed me on Facebook about my picks all last year. Here are some of the things he said:



    He wrote this to me during the Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl, where he bragged about being right about Atlanta. Oops.

    Ross constantly embarrassed himself throughout the year, including when he posted this, suggesting that he sold picks to people:



    I eventually unfriended Ross. He started going after women on my Facebook page, including my then-fiancee. I warned him, and he didn't listen, so I unfriended him.

    Because I was a big part of Ross' life, he sent me countless messages. I've shown you some already. Check this one out:



    Man, if Ross actually bet what he claims, he'd be in the poor house. Good thing he has never bet anything more than $5 with his friends. Wait, that's not right. Ross has no friends.

    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: It's going to be fun to see what the Eagles do with Golden Tate. The dynamic receiver was already missed in Detroit, as Matthew Stafford took 10 sacks in part because he didn't have Tate at his disposal. Tate is a smart, hard-working player who should transition seamlessly into Philadelphia's offense, especially after having a bye week to practice with the team.

    Tate has a tremendous matchup in this game, as Dallas can't cover the slot. Of course, we already knew that because of what Tate did to the Cowboys when they saw him back in Week 4. Tate caught eight balls for 132 yards and two touchdowns. The poor Cowboys didn't think they'd have to deal with Tate again this year, but he'll haunt them Sunday night.

    Making matters worse for the Cowboys, they may not have Sean Lee available, as Lee exited the Monday night affair with a hamstring injury. With an impending short work week, Lee may not have enough time to recover, which will make Zach Ertz's matchup much more appealing. Meanwhile, the Cowboys won't have defensive tackle David Irving either, meaning their pass rush won't be as potent. Carson Wentz's protection hasn't been great this year, but perhaps the bye week allowed the two hobbled tackles to heal their injuries.

    DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys also traded for a receiver. Though Amari Cooper caught a touchdown on Monday night, he's not the stellar No. 1 target the Cowboys thought they were getting when they foolishly surrendered a first-round pick for him.

    Cooper will have some success against Philadelphia's struggling secondary, but he won't fix the true problem with the Cowboys, which is their offensive line. Dallas has three liabilities up front, and now guard Zack Martin is banged up. The Cowboys, as a result, couldn't protect Dak Prescott against the Titans. The thing is, Philadelphia's front is even better than Tennessee's, so the Eagles will swarm Prescott.

    The best, and only positive aspect of Dallas' scoring unit is Ezekiel Elliott, which would explain why the Cowboys have struggled mightily to score when going up against a team with a great run defense. They confronted one in the Titans on Monday night, and the same applies here, as the Eagles are stellar versus ground attacks. Philadelphia should be able to put the clamps on Elliott for the most part.

    RECAP: This is another game where I'll closely be monitoring the injury report. The Cowboys have several players in their front seven who are banged up, including Lee. Dallas has historically been much worse without Lee, and that includes this season as well. If Lee is out, I'm going to have a big play on the Eagles.

    Even if Lee is able to give it a go, I'm still going to be on the Eagles for a couple of units. They're the far superior team, but are just 4-4 because of complacency this year. I've always expected them to be more focused following the bye, and the Tate trade may have just provided them with the spark they needed to have a strong finish to their season.

    With that in mind, this spread is too low. I don't know why people think the Cowboys are any good, but they stink. Philadelphia should be favored by nine at the very least. Think about it this way: The Eagles had double-digit leads against both the Titans and Panthers, but blew both leads because of fluky plays and Cam Newton's brilliance. Had they held on to those leads, they'd be 6-2 right now. What would this spread be if that were the case? The Eagles would probably be -10 in that scenario.

    One other factor: The Eagles have enjoyed much more time to prepare for this game. They're coming off a bye, while the Cowboys just played on Monday night. Doug Pederson is a much better coach than Jason Garrett, so he'll have a far better game plan installed. Garrett, by the way, is 0-6 against the spread following Monday Night Football games. I don't like trends very much, but this one seems legit. Garrett is the worst head coach in the NFL, so it makes sense that he can't get a viable game plan in place on a short work week.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sean Lee is out, and this spread has risen to -7. The Eagles are much better than the Cowboys with Lee, so this figures to be a blowout. I don't anticipate Philadelphia blowing a double-digit lead to Dak Prescott. I'm going to wager four units on the Eagles.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Not only is Sean Lee out, but the Cowboys will be missing a couple of key defensive linemen. Their front seven is normally the heart of their team, but it's not as strong as it could be. The Eagles shouldn't have much trouble scoring. However, Philadelphia will be missing two of its top three cornerbacks, which could be an issue when Dak Prescott is attempting a back-door cover. I'm going to cut this wager in half. The sharps have pushed this line up to -7.5, but you can still get -7 -121 at Bookmaker.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line is now -7.5 across the board, thanks to both public and sharp action on the Eagles.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread is still -7.5 in most books, which I think is worth a two-unit play. The Eagles won't have Lane Johnson, which is a bit of a surprise, and they'll be missing two of their top cornerbacks. However, they're much better than the Cowboys, who will be missing three key players in their front seven, including Sean Lee.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
    The Cowboys have lost their support.
  • Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 80% (20,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Road Team has won 12 of the last 16 meetings.
  • The underdog is 80-54 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.
  • Jason Garrett is 0-6 ATS after Monday Night Football.
  • Carson Wentz is 21-14 SU, 20-15 ATS as a starter.
  • Opening Line: Eagles -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 43.
  • Weather: Clear, 38 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 10 NFL Pick: Eagles 27, Cowboys 13
    Eagles -7 -120 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Incorrect; -$240
    Under 44.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Cowboys 27, Eagles 20






    New York Giants (1-7) at San Francisco 49ers (2-7)
    Line: 49ers by 3. Total: 45.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -2.5.
    Walt's Calculated Line: 49ers -3.5.
    Monday, Nov 12, 8:15 PM


    The Game. Edge: None.

    This week on ESPN, we're going to have two people I don't know calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here's what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Francisco, where the San Francisco Giants will take on the New York Giants. Guys, as you may have noticed, I'm talking to you via Skype. Mother wouldn't let me go to San Francisco because it's too dirty there, with all the poop and needles on the ground. She said I'm too young for poop and needles. I asked her when I'd be old enough for poop and needles even though I'm 66, and she said talk to my new father!

    Emmitt: Father, you make a good decisionment by not comin' to the country of Francisco Diego. This place real disgusting. Only because poop though, which I do not know why these people pick him out of the toilet and put him on the ground. This not only real stupid, it stupid as well. Needle I see a lot, too, as well, also. Needle good. Needle generally obviously have medicine in himselves so he cure people from the disease.

    Reilly: Emmitt, needles aren't good. Needles have lots of drugs in them like crack, cocaine and marijuana. Mother told me about all of these drugs in health class that I took when I was home schooled 10 years ago!

    Tollefson: Marijuana needles? What the hell are you talking about? I don't like needles. I prefer to drug my women using simple chloroform. That's a lot cleaner than needles. You need to clean needles up and stuff. I mean, not generally. But if you kidnap women, you have to hide your evidence sometimes unless you pay off the police officers like I'm thinking about doing.

    Wolfley: TOLLY, I THINK YOU'D HAVE BETTER SUCCESS PAYING OFF THE FIRE HYDRANTS. THE ONES WHO HAVE LIPS ARE GREAT TO PAY OFF. I DO IT ALL THE TIME. I ALSO PAY OFF THE TELEPHONE POLES WITH EYEBROWS. I DON'T KNOW WHAT ADVANTAGE I STAND TO GAIN BY PAYING THESE THINGS OFF, BUT I DO IT ANYWAY JUST IN CASE.

    Reilly: Would you idiots just shut up!? Where's new daddy? New daddy? Is he there? I need to ask him for permission to come to San Francisco!

    Cutler: Oh, you're not even here? I didn't even notice until you said something. Shows how much I care.

    Reilly: New daddy, I literally cried in the back seat when Mother drove you to the airport!

    Cutler: Interesting. I thought that was an audio book she was listening to.

    Fouts: And here's what he means by audio book. First, you have a book. And here's what I mean by book. A book is a thing that has paper in it, and there are words on the paper, and there's a cover holding the papers in. And here's what I mean by audio. Audio means noise. So, if you put the two together, you have a noise book, and so an audio book is any book that makes a noise. So, if you buy a book from the book store, and then drop it on the ground, you have an audio book because it makes a noise!

    Herm: NOT THAT KIND OF NOISE! NOT THAT KIND OF AUDIO! NOT THAT-

    Reilly: MUTE! I hit the mute button, haha! I should do Skype more often.

    Charles Davis: Kevin, let's talk about some other applications where you can talk to each other, Kevin. There's Google Hangouts, Kevin. What about Face Time, Kevin? How about Snap Chat, Kevin? Let's discuss pepperoni pizza, Kevin. That's not a chat application, Kevin, but... what's that, Kevin? Ring, ring, Kevin? The door bell is ringing, Kevin. I ordered a pepperoni pizza for you, Kevin.

    Reilly: Wow, you're the best, Charles Davis! Mother said I couldn't eat pizza twice this week, so I won't tell her you ordered it for me. We'll be back after this!

    Charles Davis (inaudibly): Yes, Kevin, keep eating pepperoni pizza, Kevin, you'll be fat in no time, Kevin, fatter than you already are, Kevin, and you'll be oinking like a pig in no time, Kevin. Squeal, Kevin, squeal, Kevin, muhahaha, Kevin.

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: When I read a tweet that C.J. Beathard couldn't grip a football, and that Nick Mullens could start, I immediately locked in the Raiders last week for four units. I figured the line would drop, so I wanted to get +3 as soon as possible. This would obviously turn out to be a huge error, but I knew this beforehand. That's because when I was deciding which teams I wanted for the Supercontest, I watched every snap of Mullens' during the preseason, and he looked good. He showed zero arm strength, but he was very accurate and made some "wow" throws. So, I was not surprised to see him play well in his NFL debut.

    Granted, Mullens didn't exactly have the best competition, but it's not like the Giants are going to provide much more of a challenge. New York has some terrific players on the defense, but possesses many more liabilities. Of course, the linebacking corps continues to be problematic. New York hasn't been able to defend tight ends and pass-catching running backs for years, so that means great things for George Kittle and Matt Breida.

    Meanwhile, the Giants dealt Eli Apple, so the cornerbacks have gotten worse. Not that Apple was a good player, but he was better than whomever he was starting over. Mullens should have receivers open all evening, and we know that he possesses the accuracy to deliver the ball to them.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: There was talk that rookie quarterback Kyle Lauletta could replace Eli Manning during the bye week, but Lauletta was arrested for hitting a police officer with a car, so there's that. It'll be Manning again, presumably, which means more sacks and checkdowns.

    Manning stinks, and the Giants can't protect him. The 49ers put lots of pressure on Derek Carr, and I imagine they'll do the same thing to Manning in this game. Luckily for Manning, he'll be going against a linebacking corps that isn't very good, so Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram have nice matchups. Thus, he'll be able to release the ball quickly to them and watch them turn short tosses into long gains.

    The 49ers don't have a good secondary either, but the one exception is Richard Sherman. He'll play Odell Beckham Jr. well, though I still expect Beckham to have some significant catches. Sterling Shepard could have a big night as well.

    RECAP: Both of these teams stink, so which one will be more motivated? I think that's the question that must be asked.

    My guess would be the 49ers. They seemed genuinely excited for Mullens to be their quarterback. He may have a squirt-gun arm, but he's an accurate thrower who works extremely hard. His teammates love him, and they want to see him succeed. Conversely, there seems to be a genuine resentment toward Manning in the Giants' locker room. I think it's more likely that New York will be a no-show in this game.

    I'm going to pick the 49ers. I'm not sure if I'll be betting them yet. If I do, it'll only be for a unit or two. I'll mark it down as a non-wager at the moment.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps jumped on the 49ers on Thursday afternoon. I'm still thinking about betting on San Francisco, as there is a great chance the Giants will be a no-show for this game.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Professional action continues to roll in on San Francisco. This line has moved up to -3.5, and yet I'm still considering a small wager on the host because the Giants likely won't show up.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The 49ers -3 -120 is available at Bovada, which might be worth locking in. I'll consider it throughout the day as I ponder putting a unit on the host in this contest.

    MONDAY AFTERNOON NOTES: There's a good amount of public action coming in on the Giants. I think I'm going to bet the 49ers for a unit or so tonight, but with all the action on the Giants, there's a good chance the juice on -3 drops (currently -120).

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I'm going to increase this unit count to two. Why? 1) The 49ers want to win for Nick Mullens. 2) The Giants players hate Eli Manning. 3) Circadian Rhythms. 4) The unhealthy air quality could be inside the Giants' heads. 5) The sharps are on the 49ers. The juice went down on this game, as -3 is available for -115 at 5Dimes and Bookmaker.


    The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.
    The Giants could be a no-show, as they hate Eli Manning.


    The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
    A strong lean on the Giants.
  • Percentage of money on New York: 66% (25,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • 49ers are 38-20 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.
  • Opening Line: 49ers -2.5.
  • Opening Total: 43.5.
  • Weather: Clear, 63 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 10 NFL Pick: 49ers 20, Giants 13
    49ers -3 -115 (2 Units) - Bookmaker/5Dimes -- Incorrect; -$230
    Under 45 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Giants 27, 49ers 20





    Week 10 NFL Picks - Early Games
    Carolina at Pittsburgh, Detroit at Chicago, New Orleans at Cincinnati, Atlanta at Cleveland, New England at Tennessee, Jacksonville at Indianapolis, Arizona at Kansas City, Buffalo at NY Jets, Washington at Tampa Bay


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Teaser: Patriots -0.5, Eagles -1.5 (2 Units)

    I normally don't advise betting down, as betting up through key numbers offers more value. Unfortunately, there are no opportunities for that this week. The good news is that the Patriots and Eagles are likely to win outright, making this an appealing teaser.


    LOADING COMMENTS...



    NFL Picks - Jan. 16


    2021 NFL Mock Draft - Jan. 13


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Jan. 11


    2022 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 15


    NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 14


    2020 College Football Recruiting Rankings - April 14


    2020 NBA Mock Draft - Sept. 27




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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 11-5 (2014-19: 47-50)
    Bears: 6-11 (2014-19: 45-48)
    Bucs: 7-9 (2014-19: 44-45)
    49ers: 8-8 (2014-19: 53-44)
    Eagles: 8-8 (2014-19: 55-46)
    Lions: 9-6 (2014-19: 53-42)
    Falcons: 9-7 (2014-19: 55-45)
    Cardinals: 10-6 (2014-19: 45-50)
    Giants: 3-13 (2014-19: 52-41)
    Packers: 12-4 (2014-19: 54-46)
    Panthers: 13-3 (2014-19: 47-52)
    Rams: 5-12 (2014-19: 53-41)
    Redskins: 7-8 (2014-19: 47-48)
    Vikings: 9-7 (2014-19: 51-45)
    Saints: 7-10 (2014-19: 49-50)
    Seahawks: 8-9 (2014-19: 43-56)
    Bills: 10-7 (2014-19: 52-42)
    Bengals: 9-5 (2014-19: 42-52)
    Colts: 8-7 (2014-19: 50-45)
    Broncos: 9-7 (2014-19: 45-48)
    Dolphins: 12-4 (2014-19: 47-46)
    Browns: 7-9 (2014-19: 46-44)
    Jaguars: 4-11 (2014-19: 41-55)
    Chargers: 8-6 (2014-19: 46-49)
    Jets: 8-8 (2014-19: 50-40)
    Ravens: 5-11 (2014-19: 48-47)
    Texans: 10-5 (2014-19: 48-47)
    Chiefs: 12-4 (2014-19: 56-50)
    Patriots: 6-10 (2014-19: 55-53)
    Steelers: 7-10 (2014-19: 56-43)
    Titans: 10-7 (2014-19: 49-47)
    Raiders: 7-9 (2014-19: 43-52)
    Divisional: 43-47 (2011-19: 405-394)
    2x Game Edge: 63-60 (2011-19: 213-210)
    2x Motivation Edge: 45-30 (2011-19: 347-288)
    2x Spread Edge: 42-33 (2011-19: 61-55)
    2x Vegas Edge: 25-22 (2011-19: 320-335)
    2x Trend Edge: 18-13 (2011-19: 250-228)
    Double Edge: 27-21 (2011-19: 122-107)
    Triple Edge: 5-4 (2011-19: 21-18)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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