NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2017

NFL Picks (Preseason 2017): 9-10-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2017): 8-6-1 (+$135)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2017): 9-7 (+$45)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2017): 5-11 (-$425)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2017): 5-11 (+$90)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2017): 8-6 (+$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2017): 6-8 (-$640)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2017): 3-10-2 (-$2,180)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2017): 6-7 (-$1,795)

NFL Picks (2017): 59-76-4 (-$3,800)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-132-7 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 6, 6:15 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 9 NFL Picks – Early Games

Arizona Cardinals (3-4) at San Francisco 49ers (0-8)
Line: Cardinals by 2.5. Total: 39.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: 49ers -1.
Sunday, Nov 5, 4:05 PM
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The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

Last year, on the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts, Tom Brady was elected as the President of the United States, as it was revealed that he was the only candidate running because both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were figments of his imagination. In doing so, Tom Brady saved his organization, the Two-Handed Gang, from the Latin Kings. Everything was going swimmingly for Brady while in the White House, until he received a telegram from Bill Belichick, requiring his presence in Foxboro…

To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers traded for Jimmy Garoppolo – check out my NFL Trade Grades for detailed analysis – but he’s not expected to play this week, according to Adam Schefter. This makes sense, as Garoppolo needs at least a week to have some sort of understanding of his new offense.

Besides, why throw Garoppolo into the fire without Joe Staley and Trent Brown? Staley seems unlikely to play in this game following his eye injury, while Brown is still in concussion protocol. The 49ers’ offense can’t function without its two tackles, especially against an Arizona defense that has Chandler Jones to abuse fill-in Zane Beadles. San Francisco’s pass protection is going to be an utter mess, and I can’t imagine C.J. Beathard having much time. Making matters worse, he won’t be able to target Pierre Garcon because of Patrick Peterson.

The absences of Staley and Brown will also make it extremely difficult for the 49ers to sustain any sort of rushing attack, even though the Cardinals aren’t very good against the run.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Like the 49ers, the Cardinals aren’t starting the best quarterback on their roster, though for a completely different reason. Carson Palmer is out with an injury, so Drew Stanton will be under center the rest of the way. This is obviously not good news, as Stanton was just 5-of-14 for 66 yards and an interception in relief of Palmer in London.

Stanton will have a much easier matchup against the 49ers, though it’s not as lopsided as it could have been because it sounds like Reuben Foster will return to the lineup. This will help the 49ers defend the run better. Foster will be a huge boon for San Francisco in that regard, as the team has surrendered at least 97 rushing yards to six of eight opponents this year. One of the exceptions happens to be the Cardinals, but that was before Adrian Peterson was acquired.

The one piece of good news for the Cardinals is that Stanton should at least have some success versus the 49ers’ secondary. San Francisco’s corners can’t cover, while Jimmie Ward is out for the year with a broken forearm. Someone named Adrian Colbert had to step in last week against the Eagles, and he was horrible.

RECAP: I can’t bet Drew Stanton as a favorite, especially on the road. And I don’t want to bet the 49ers without either of their tackles. Plus, San Francisco could be busy this week preparing a quarterback who won’t even be in this game.

Both sides look extremely unappealing to me. When in doubt, take the underdog or fade the public. We’re doing both by picking San Francisco.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The good news for the 49ers is that Trent Brown sounds like he’ll play. The bad news is that Joe Staley hasn’t been practicing. I don’t want to bet San Francisco for more than a unit if Staley is out.

SATURDAY NOTES: As speculated Thursday, Trent Brown will play, while Joe Staley is out. In fact, Brown will replace Staley at left tackle, which makes me feel better about the Chandler Jones matchup.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’d consider a bet on the 49ers at +3, but I’m not sure the spread will move past 2.5. Check back around 3:30 p.m., or follow me @walterfootball.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no injury surprises prior to kickoff, and this line hasn’t moved at all. This will be a non-wager pick on the 49ers.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
No surprise that people don’t want to bet San Francisco.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 62% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

History: Cardinals have won 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Opening Line: Cardinals -1.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Cardinals 13, 49ers 12
49ers +2.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 39.5 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Cardinals 20, 49ers 10

Washington Redskins (3-4) at Seattle Seahawks (5-2)
Line: Seahawks by 9.5. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -6.
Sunday, Nov 5, 4:05 PM
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The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

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Make sure you get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2017 NFL Survivor Pool. Of the 1,630 we had to start the year, we’re down to 84. We lost just one player last week because all but one favorite won.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Kirk Cousins ran one of the worst 2-minute drills of all time last week. Down a touchdown with about 50 seconds and no timeouts, Cousins had a chance to tie the game, but he attempted just two passes. One was a slip screen, while the other was a short toss that was tipped and picked. Cousins went to the sideline, and Jay Gruden patted him on the back, apparently acknowledging that his quarterback had absolutely no chance.

The reason for this was the state of the offensive line. Already missing three starting blockers heading into the contest, the Redskins lost a fourth when guard Shawn Lauvao went down. Their lone remaining starter, Morgan Moses, isn’t even completely healthy. Washington’s chances in this game depend on how many blockers they get back this week, but it’s not looking very optimistic. Stud left tackle Trent Williams is dealing with a major knee issue, while talented guard Brandon Scherff is considered questionable at best. None of this is ideal for the Redskins in this matchup, as they’ll be tasked to block Michael Bennett, Sheldon Richardson and the rest of Seattle’s front without most of their starters.

If the Redskins had the appropriate blocking, I’d like their chances. Seattle’s secondary isn’t as good as it has been in the past. Richard Sherman has taken a step backward this year, while Earl Thomas is dealing with a hamstring problem that could keep him out.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks, of course, are well aware of offensive line problems, so they managed to do something about it. Duane Brown was a nice acquisition for them, as he’ll be a massive upgrade over inept blind-side protector Rees Odhiambo. He’ll be a major boost for the offense going forward, as Seattle now has two solid linemen in Brown and center Justin Britt.

The most important position in this matchup, however, is right tackle, as the Seaahwks will need to shield Russell Wilson from Ryan Kerrigan. Germain Ifedi won’t be able to do that, so the Redskins should be able to apply lots of pressure on Wilson. Of course, Wilson will use his legs to escape potential sacks, but he’ll still get hounded despite the addition of Brown.

Wilson, despite not having Brown against the Texans, torched Houston for 400-plus yards. Washington’s secondary is better with Josh Norman back on the field, but it still has some liabilities for Wilson to expose. I also expect Jimmy Graham to go off against a defense that hasn’t handled tight ends well.

RECAP: I like the Redskins to cover. How much I like them depends on which offensive linemen play. If, for example, Trent Williams is the only one who’s out, I’m going to wager on them for two or three units. If Williams and Scherff are both out, however, this might be a one-unit bet at most. If someone else is missing in action, it’s going to be a non-wager.

I think this spread is too high, as it appears to be influenced by price memory. I said the same thing last week when the Seahawks were -5.5 over the Texans, and this spread appears to be worse. My line for this game, even with some of the injuries factored in, is Seahawks -5.5. As discussed earlier, Seattle’s defense is not as potent as it used to be. If Cousins gets any sort of protection, I think he’ll enjoy torching the Seahawks, just as Deshaun Watson did last week. We’ve seen that Seattle isn’t nearly the same team without Earl Thomas, and it doesn’t sound like the All-Pro safety will be in the lineup.

With that in mind, check back later or follow me @walterfootball for further updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Redskins’ offensive line issues are important. Trent Williams wasn’t practicing Thursday, but the Redskins are reportedly encouraged by Brandon Scherff’s chances. We’ll see. Hopefully we have a better idea by Saturday.

SATURDAY NOTES: So many injuries. Let’s begin with the Redskins. It looks like they’ll be down three starters again, plus the top backup. Spencer Long has been ruled out, and while Brandon Scherff and Trent Williams are questionable, neither has practiced this week. Jamison Crowder and Mason Foster are expected to be out as well. The Seahawks, however, aren’t much better. Earl Thomas is out, while Kam Chancellor, Bobby Wagner and Sheldon Richardson are all questionable. Chancellor is expected to play, but Wagner missed practice all week. I’m going to put a unit on the Redskins for now, but that could change by Sunday afternoon, depending on who suits up.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread has risen to +9.5 at BetUS. I may put an extra unit on the Redskins, but this sort of line movement indicates that the Redskins’ injury woes are even more dire than expected. Again, check back at 3:30 or so for my final pick on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are two significant injury notes. First, for the Redskins, they’ll have Brandon Scherff in the lineup, which is huge. Though Trent Williams is out, the Redskins will have the right side of their offensive line intact, which is huge. Second, for the Seahawks, Sheldon Richardson is inactive, meaning they’ll be missing two key defenders (Earl Thomas). I’m fine with betting the Redskins, and it appears as though the sharps are as well because they’ve taken this spread down to +8.5. I’m comfortable going three units on Washington.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

The Seahawks look like easy money to people.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 69% (21,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Redskins are 15-6 ATS after losing to the Cowboys since 1997.

Seahawks are 42-22 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -7.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Seahawks 24, Redskins 20
Redskins +8.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Redskins 17, Seahawks 14

Kansas City Chiefs (5-2) at Dallas Cowboys (4-3)
Line: Cowboys by 2.5. Total: 53.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -2.
Sunday, Nov 5, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 10 (I can’t believe this is the 10th year I’ve been doing this!) In Episode 8, Evil Emmitt has a meeting of the minds, while real Emmitt enters the Dragonlord’s castle.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Halloween Attractions.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Ezekiel Elliott is currently suspended, but he still has a chance to play in this game. He’s waiting on the Second Circuit, and he’s expected to have a ruling by Wednesday evening. As of right now, it doesn’t appear as though Elliott will play, but it’s really anyone’s guess at this point.

If Elliott can’t suit up, it’ll be Alfred Morris carrying the load for the Cowboys. Morris obviously isn’t nearly is talented, but he’ll at least have some very good blocking in front of him. Dallas’ offensive line has taken a step backward from last year because of Ronald Leary’s departure, but they have three blockers – Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, Travis Frederick – playing on a high level. And yes, Smith is included. He struggled earlier in the year with a back issue, but now appears to be healthy. The Chiefs have surrendered at least 100 rushing yards to three of their previous four opponents, so the Cowboys will get some nice runs out of Morris. Still, the Chiefs have to feel grateful that they won’t have to tackle Elliott, who could’ve dominated this matchup.

With Elliott likely out, Dak Prescott will have to do more, which isn’t ideal. The Cowboys have a huge liability at right tackle, as La’el Collins will have to somehow block Justin Houston. Meanwhile, Steve Nelson’s return to the field will help the Chiefs defend Cole Beasley, so they’ll really only have to worry about Dez Bryant. The Chiefs have Marcus Peters, but he doesn’t shadow.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: With Elliott out, the Chiefs will have more dynamic offensive weapons in this matchup. Their runner, Kareem Hunt, failed to eclipse the century mark in scrimmage yards for the first time last week, but only because he was battling the top run defense in the NFL. The Cowboys obviously aren’t as potent in that regard. They’re not inept versus the rush either, but Hunt should go surpass 100 yards again.

The Chiefs’ best offensive player is Travis Kelce, who was unstoppable Monday night. The Broncos’ one defensive weakness is against tight ends, so that wasn’t too surprising. The Cowboys haven’t really allowed any big games to tight ends either, but they haven’t played an elite player at the position yet. I’m pessimistic about their chances to clamp down on Kelce.

I don’t think Dallas will have much success containing Tyreek Hill either, as Jamison Crowder just had a big performance against them in a downpour. The Cowboys will have to put heavy pressure on Alex Smith to keep Hill from going off, and that doesn’t seem to be too likely, as the Chiefs have their entire offensive line intact for the first time in more than a month.

RECAP: I wonder if this spread is going to be adjusted based on Elliott’s status. If the Chiefs move to -3, I might have some interest in the Cowboys, as my line is Kansas City -2. As of right now, I think the Chiefs are the right side. I think they should be favored by a couple of points, but there’s not much of a difference between a pick-em line and -2, so I won’t be betting this game unless there’s some serious line movement.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m going to switch my pick to the Cowboys. If there was ever a game where TV anchors will go, “Is anyone picking the Cowboys in this game!?” this is it. Dallas is favored! The sharps are on them, and I think the Chiefs, coming off a short work week, may not take an Ezekiel Elliott-less Dallas team seriously.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ezekiel Elliott will play, while Justin Houston is suddenly questionable with a knee injury after missing practice Friday. I still think the Chiefs should be favored, so I thought about putting two units on them prior to seeing Houston’s status. I’ll leave it at one for now and check back prior to kickoff.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: 5Dimes has the best number for the Chiefs at +2.5 -105. I’ll increase this bet if we can get +3, but the Chiefs are a one-unit selection for now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tamba Hali is active for the Chiefs, which is a nice bonus. Unfortunately, +3 never appeared, but I still like them for a unit. The best number is +2 +100 at Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 54% (36,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

The underdog is 74-45 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Cowboys are 17-28 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

Cowboys are 12-25 ATS when favored after a win since 2010.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Chiefs 30, Cowboys 27
Chiefs +2 +100 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100
Over 53 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 28, Chiefs 17

Oakland Raiders (3-5) at Miami Dolphins (4-3)
Line: Raiders by 3. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Raiders -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Dolphins -1.
Sunday, Nov 5, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Raiders.

It’s time for a Ross Avila update! Ross, some idiot kid on Facebook who challenged me to a picking contest this year, is now 11-28-1 with his selections. Yes, 11-28-1! I invalidated Ross’ Week 7 entry because he tried copying someone else’s picks for the fourth week in a row. I warned him last week that there would be a penalty for doing this again, yet he continued to cheat. He challenged me to a handicapping contest, but he’s just stealing other people’s work. Can you imagine how angry his fake Google bosses will be when they find out about this!?

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins traded Jay Ajayi, leaving them with the formidable duo of Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams at running back. They’re obviously not nearly as talented as Ajayi, but it’s not like Ajayi was doing much behind Miami’s putrid offensive line. I don’t think there will be much of a drop-off between Ajayi and Drake and Williams as far as the Dolphins’ total offense is concerned.

What matters most is if the blocking holds up, and it hasn’t thus far. However, the Dolphins at least have a decent chance to keep Khalil Mack out of the backfield, as right tackle Ja’Wuan James is their best blocker. Miami happens to be very poor from left guard to right guard, and the Raiders only have Mario Edwards as a disruptive force in the interior.

Of course, the Raiders have some major issues in their back seven. Their secondary sucks, and their linebacking corps is even worse. With Jay Cutler and DeVante Parker back in the lineup, Miami should have some success moving the chains aerially.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Raiders were able to compile a great record last year because of strong quarterback and offensive line play. Both departments have been lacking this year, with Derek Carr struggling ever since he returned from injury. He made some nice throws versus the Chiefs in a Thursday night affair, but he regressed last week despite having nine days off.

Fortunately for Carr, he’ll be going up against a poor back seven as well. Miami’s linebacking corps and secondary also stink. Joe Flacco even looked good against them! I like Michael Crabtree and Jared Cook in this matchup. Perhaps Amari Cooper will even be able to play on a high level again.

That said, Carr will need time to throw the ball, and that could be a problem. His offensive line has taken a major step backward this season. Donald Penn has regressed a bit, while Gabe Jackson is playing hurt. Ndamukong Suh has a tremendous matchup versus Jackson, while I like Cameron Wake and William Hayes going up against Penn and pedestrian right tackle Marshall Newhouse.

RECAP: I talked about how the Seattle and Atlanta spreads were influenced by price memory. I believe this one is as well. The Raiders are no longer the team that won 12 games in 2016. Their defense blows, while Carr is not 100 percent and the offensive line is worse. Yet, Oakland is being priced like it’s still one of the top teams in the AFC.

I think this spread is a major overreaction to what happened last week. Everyone watched the Dolphins get blasted, 40-0. They simply were a no-show versus the Ravens, as they just assumed they could stroll into Baltimore and win. They’re bound to play harder this week after being humiliated, and I think there’s some good value on them as home underdogs. The look-ahead line was Raiders -1, and I even thought that was a tad high, as my number is Dolphins -1. With four points of line value, I’m going to wager three units on Miami.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There are three home dogs in the night games this week. This is the only contest where the sharps aren’t taking the dog. At least not yet. Perhaps that means the Raiders will move to -3.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: Some good news/bad news for the Raiders. Karl Joseph was limited in practice all week, so he should be in the lineup. The bad news is that the Raiders will be missing Gareon Conley and David Amerson, so the Dolphins should have lots of success passing against them. I’m worried that the sharps could take the Dolphins off +3, so I’m going to lock in the +3 -105 available at Bovada.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I don’t mind that I locked this in at +3 -105, as I thought that was a great number. It wasn’t the best number, unfortunately, as public money on the Raiders has moved this to +3 +105 at 5Dimes or +3.5 -115 at Bovada. The former number is better.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Bovada has the Dolphins listed at +4, which seems outrageous to me. Unfortunately, I locked the Dolphins in at +3 -105; otherwise I’d consider a fourth unit on Miami. My numbers have the Dolphins as one-point favorites, so we’re getting great value with the home dog, which will be out for blood after being embarrassed on national TV. The sharps are on the Raiders, but they’re not having a great day. They lost a similar game, taking Atlanta over Carolina (both the Falcons and Raiders have the spread inflated in their favor because of price memory).

The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.

The Dolphins were humiliated on national TV.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Who wants a part of Miami? Anyone? No?

Percentage of money on Oakland: 71% (74,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

Underdog is 78-47 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 123 games.

Dolphins are 11-35 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Jay Cutler is 46-76 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Raiders -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Dolphins 21, Raiders 20
Dolphins +3 -105 (3 Units) — Push; $0
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 27, Dolphins 24

Detroit Lions (3-4) at Green Bay Packers (4-3)
Line: Lions by 3. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -1.
Monday, Nov 6, 8:30 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Lions.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have some bald dude and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and aloof people like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Green Bay, Missouri, where tonight, we have the Green Bay Packers playing the Detroit Tigers. Guys, as you may know, mother is dating Jay Cutler, and I told my new daddy that I was going to kill Aaron Rodgers for him so that he could be the best quarterback in the NFC Central division.

Emmitt: Rodgers, you got many thing wrong there. First of all, we not in the city of Missouri. We in the city of Westconsin. Third of all, Jake Cutler not in the same conference as the Packer anymore because he got tradered to the Dolphin or Jaguar. And third of all, there are no such conference as the NFL Central.

Herm: JAKE CUTLER NOT IN THE NFC CENTRAL! HIS NAME’S NOT EVEN JAKE CUTLER! IT’S JAY! JAY CUTLER! AND HE’S NOT IN THE NFC CENTRAL! NOT EVEN THE NFC! AND CERTAINLY NOT THE CENTRAL! NOT LEFT! NOT RIGHT! NOT UP! NOT DOWN! NOT CENTRAL! MORE LIKE THE EAST! OPPOSITE OF WEST! OPPOSITE OF WEST, NOW! OPPOSITE OF WEST IS EAST! WHERE THE SUN SETS! WAIT, THE SUN DOESN’T SET IN THE EAST! WHERE DOES IT SET? HERM FORGOT WHERE IT SETS! HOW DID HERM FORGET THIS!? HOW DID HERM FORGET… uhh… umm…

Reilly: Shut up, Herm. How many dumb things can you say each week? If I weren’t so concerned with killing the Packers’ starting quarterback tonight, I’d kill you. Anyway, guys, I brought in my secret weapon to kill Aaron Rodgers. It’s Connor Kaepernick, the former quarterback of the San Diego 49ers! Connor, are you ready to kill Rodgers for me?

…

Reilly: What? Where’s Connor? Has anyone seen Connor Kaepernick?

Tollefson: Kevin, first of all, it’s Colin Kaepernick. And second, what a f***ing stupid idea you had to bring him in to kill Aaron Rodgers. You realize Rodgers isn’t even playing in this game, right? And how would Colin kill him, anyway? Is he going to kneel on his head, or something? The only people who should ever be kneeling are women who dust the lower shelves of my house with no clothes on.

Millen: I have to agree with Tolly, Kevin. Did you know that Colin Kaepernick is actually a negative-percent USDA Man? I snuck into his hotel room last night and inserted a kielbasa into his backside. Guess what happened, guys? It broke right away! Snap. Right in half. I’ve never had this happen to me before, so I took out the kielbasa sextant I carry with me everywhere, and it read that he’s negative-17 percent USDA Man. No wonder he kneels like one of Tolly’s disgusting naked women!

Reilly: Haha, he said sex-tant. Anyway, let me call Connor Kaepernick on the Skype machine right now. Shhh, it’s ringing. Oh, hello there, Connor Kaepernick. Nice of you to show up! I paid you to come here and kill Aaron Rodgers, and you didn’t even show up.

Colin Kaepernick: Sorry, Kevin, I didn’t think I was wanted there, so I didn’t show up.

Reilly: But I paid you with the allowance mother gave me! It was obvious that you had to show up, but you didn’t! You left me hanging! How am I supposed to kill Aaron Rodgers without your Cuban missiles!?

Colin Kaepernick: Oh, I didn’t bring my Cuban missiles. I didn’t think I would need to bring them.

Reilly: But I specifically told you to bring your Cuban missiles! Why haven’t you followed any of my instructions!?

Fouts: And here’s what Connor means by instructions. Instructions are things that instruct you to do something. And here’s what I mean by something. It’s a thing that is some sort of thing. It’s a thing that is something. Some…thing… That’s what I mean by something. That’s… wait, why would Colin Kaepernick have Cuban missiles?

Wolfley: WHO THE HELL DOESN’T HAVE CUBAN MISSILES? I HAVE CUBAN MISSILES RIGHT IN MY POCKET HERE. THEY HAVE LIPS ON THEM.

Reilly: You do!? Quick, hit Aaron Rodgers with them for my new daddy. Fire at will! Fire at will! Fire… wait, you just took out a toothpick out of your pocket. That’s not a Cuban missile!

Colin Kaepernick: Hey guys, I have to get going. There’s a protest for crabgrass I need to address. But I’m not sure if I need to go to the lawn clinic to protest. I’m not sure if the other protestors want me there. Maybe I’ll just protest from home instead by standing on my head. That will get the message out that crabgrass needs to be addressed.

Charles Davis: Kevin, you’ve mentioned missiles a lot, Kevin. Let’s talk about other weapons, Kevin. How about torpedoes, Kevin? What about…

Reilly: YES, YES, I KNOW, I’M GOING TO GUESS PEPPERONI PIZZA WEAPONS EVEN THOUGH I NEVER WILL, AND YOU’RE GOING TO TELL ME I’M WRONG, WELL GUESS WHAT, I’M F***ING PISSED OFF THAT I DON’T GET TO KILL AARON RODGERS TODAY SO F*** OFF!!! We’ll be back after this!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Brett Hundley was dreadful in his first start against the Saints. He went 12-of-25 for only 87 yards and an interception. He managed to rush for 44 yards and a touchdown, but his passing was disastrous.

There is, however, a glimmer of hope for the Packers. They’re coming off a bye, so Mike McCarthy has had extra time to prepare his young quarterback. McCarthy has enjoyed tremendous success following byes – 9-1 against the spread – and while most of that has been with Aaron Rodgers, McCarthy is still a strong offensive mind who has undoubtedly taken advantage of the time off. Also, the Lions blew so many coverages last week. Ben Roethlisberger overthrew several receivers, as he’s done all year, so perhaps Hundley will take advantage of Detroit’s constant mix-ups in the secondary.

The Packers could also run the ball successfully. They found a capable back in Aaron Jones prior to the bye when Jones gashed the Saints for 131 yards on 17 carries. The Lions have been sub par against the rush ever since losing Haloti Ngata to an injury, so Jones should be able to put Hundley in favorable down-and-distance situations.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions looked terrific in between the 20s last week, but were completely stymied in the red zone. They had 18 plays in the red area, but couldn’t score once. It seems like this would be a better chance for them to score sixes instead of threes, given the status of the Packers’ secondary, but I’m not so sure.

I mentioned that the Packers have a glimmer of hope on offense. They do on this side of the ball as well, given that Morgan Burnett is practicing again. Burnett is one of the top safeties in the NFL, but he’s been out of the lineup since getting hurt in Week 5. That was the Dallas game, and the Packers had severe issues against the Cowboys’ passing attack after losing him. They also had no hope versus Drew Brees. Burnett patrolling the middle of the field can help Green Bay slow the Lions down a bit, and he’ll be a dominant presence in the red zone.

The other big edge the Packers have on this side of the ball is the pass rush. Green Bay is strong on the right side with Mike Daniels and Nick Perry. Those two Pro Bowlers will be matched up against a horrible left tackle, and injured center and a pedestrian left guard. Matthew Stafford will face lots of heat from that side, and the Packer duo should disrupt plenty of drives as a result.

RECAP: Another seemingly stinky home dog in a night game? Let’s do it! My line for this game is exactly the same as the Sunday night affair, where I have the home underdog favored by one. Four points of value is great, especially when a key number is involved.

One thing I don’t understand is what happened in the past seven days. The advance spread on this game was a pick ’em. Why is it suddenly Lions -3? It’s even an overreaction to anything. Detroit lost, while the Packers were on a bye.

I’m going with Green Bay for three units. I think the bye will help a lot, and having Burnett back on the field will be even more beneficial. This spread is also out of whack. Who are the Lions to suddenly be favored by three on the road? It’s not like they’re some great team. They’re average, and they’re battling a hungry team eager to end their two-game skid.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As indicated earlier, the sharps took the +3s that were available briefly, but haven’t indicated any movement at +2.5. If I can get the Packers at “only” +2.5, I’ll decrease the wager to two units.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps have made a move on the Packers, as they’re pounding the home underdog in this matchup, and understandably so. Morgan Burnett is practicing fully, which is a great sign for Green Bay’s chances. Unfortunately, the line movement has made this game less appealing, so I’m going to drop this to two units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Packers were favored by kickoff, given the amount of sharp money coming in on the Packers. I imagine the pros see value with the Packers because Morgan Burnett is returning from injury.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I really like the Packers in this matchup. They have their offensive line intact for the first time all year. Morgan Burnett, one of the top safeties in the NFL, is back on the field. The Packers have had two weeks to prepare for the Lions, who tend to play close games. With a +3 -115 available at Bovada, I’m going to bump this up to three units. I would take Green Bay for two units otherwise (+2.5 elsewhere). The sharps, by the way, haven’t bet the game; this is all public money on Detroit.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

Why would anyone bet their hard-earned money on Brett Hundley?

Percentage of money on Detroit: 69% (63,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won 19 of the last 23 meetings.

Lions are 8-17 ATS on the road vs. teams with winning records since 2011.

Packers are 36-22 ATS at home since 2010.

Packers are 44-22 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Packers are 6-2 ATS as home underdogs since 2007.

Mike McCarthy is 9-1 ATS off a bye.

Opening Line: Lions -2.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Packers 20, Lions 19
Packers +3 -115 (3 Units)
Under 43 (0 Units)

Week 9 NFL Picks – Early Games
Buffalo at NY Jets, Denver at Philadelphia, LA Rams at NY Giants, Cincinnati at Jacksonville, Atlanta at Carolina, Tampa Bay at New Orleans, Indianapolis at Houston, Baltimore at Tennessee

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Panthers +8.5, Packers +8 (2 Units)

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
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Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
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2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)