NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2017

NFL Picks (Preseason 2017): 9-10-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2017): 8-6-1 (+$135)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2017): 9-7 (+$45)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2017): 5-11 (-$425)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2017): 5-11 (+$90)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2017): 8-6 (+$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2017): 6-8 (-$640)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2017): 3-10-2 (-$2,180)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2017): 6-7 (-$1,795)

NFL Picks (2017): 59-76-4 (-$3,800)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-132-7 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 6, 6:15 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games

Buffalo Bills (5-2) at New York Jets (3-5)
Line: Bills by 3.5. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bills -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bills -1.
Thursday, Nov 2, 8:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Bills.

WEEK 7 RECAP: Losing 14 units, including a Pick of the Month, by a combined THREE points sucks. It really sucks. I learned that with my Week 8 picks, as the Chargers +7.5 lost by eight, and the Lions +3 lost by five. I believe I handicapped those games correctly, yet still lost both of them.

I don’t know what else there is to do. I made a couple of dumb, two-unit picks with the Raiders and Dolphins, and I should have bet on the Panthers, so I definitely had my fair share of screw-ups. But I think my handicapping was good for my top picks in Week 8. Despite this, I went a horrible 6-7 (-$1,795), thanks to the poor pick I made Monday night. I wish I had a good answer for what’s been happening this year, but I can only hope for some good luck for a change in the second half of the season.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Tyrod Taylor played a great game Sunday, completing 20-of-27 passes for 165 yards and a touchdown. The passing yardage doesn’t look impressive, but Taylor made so many clutch third-down conversions to keep drives alive. That said, Oakland’s lethargic defense had something to do with it.

Taylor has a tougher matchup on paper this week, though you could say that by default, given how bad Oakland’s defense is. The Jets have a solid defensive line and a top cornerback in Morris Claiborne who, in theory, could take away one side of the field. However, Muhammad Wilkerson sounds like he’ll miss this game, while Claiborne isn’t practicing. The Jets don’t have a decent replacement for either. In fact, Claiborne is the only viable starting corner on New York’s roster!

Taylor figures to have another decent performance, but it will be LeSean McCoy who will once again do most of the damage. The Jets have surrendered 119-plus rushing yards to five of their eight opponents this year, and the three exceptions were the Dolphins (twice) and Browns. McCoy will have a big game on the ground and as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, exposing the Jets’ poor linebackers.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Does anyone have a reasonable explanation for how the Jets are averaging about 20 points per game? They have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, and they have Josh McCown throwing to a bunch of rejects. Perhaps the answer lies within the schedule. Excluding games against the Bills and Jaguars in Weeks 1 and 4, the Jets have played some pretty terrible defenses. They’ve battled the Raiders, Dolphins (twice), Browns, Patriots and Falcons. Not exactly a gauntlet comprising of the 70s Steelers, ’85 Bears and 2000 Ravens.

The Bills clamped down on New York the first time, and I have to believe that’ll happen again. The Jets don’t have the blocking to keep Buffalo’s terrific pass rush out of the backfield, so McCown will have to keep tossing short passes to his pedestrian weapons. Bilal Powell and Matt Forte could have some success, but maintaining drives will be difficult, especially if the Bills welcome back E.J. Gaines and Jordan Poyer from injury.

Gaines and Poyer both missed the Oakland game, so it’s saying something that the Bills were able to keep Derek Carr, Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper from doing much without the two. Both are talented defensive backs who would make it very difficult for McCown to do anything. Sean McDermott called both day-to-day, so it’s still unknown if they’ll be able to suit up.

RECAP: The Bills are obviously the better team, but they’re 3.5-point road favorites, which is pretty substantial. The line I made for this game is Bills -1, so I think the spread is too high. Plus, the Bills are in a rough spot. They had a big statement victory, and they now have to go on the road to battle a team they’ve already beaten. The Jets, despite their lacking talent, have somehow kept most of their games close, and I could see them doing that again.

I’m not going to bet this contest. My numbers say the Jets should cover, and I’d probably bet them if this were a Sunday affair. However, Thursday games tend to go to the superior squad, so it wouldn’t surprise me if the Bills won easily.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Kelvin Benjamin will not play tonight, but that was expected. I still like the Jets – and the sharps do as well – but not enough to bet them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is on the Bills, while the sharps wagered on Jets +3.5. That number is still available at Bovada, while 5Dimes and BetUS has New York at +3 +100. What’s better? Per the math, the +3.5 is 1.1 percent more likely to make you money than +3 +100. Despite everything, I’m not betting this game. I hate going against the better team on a short week. If this game were on Sunday, I’d have a couple of units on the Jets, at least. I still would take New York if I had to though.

The Psychology. Edge: Jets.

The Bills are coming off a big victory over the Raiders, and now they get the “lowly” Jets, who will be seeking divisional revenge.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

A good amount of action on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 69% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Bills have won 6 of the last 8 meetings (home team has won 8 of the last 11).

Opening Line: Bills -3.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Bills 19, Jets 17
Jets +3.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jets 34, Bills 21

Denver Broncos (3-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-1)
Line: Eagles by 7. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Eagles -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -9.5.
Sunday, Nov 5, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Eagles.

My overrated-underrated feature will continue in this spot, and I’m going to emphasize injuries (particularly those on the offensive line)…

Underrated NFL Teams:

Carolina Panthers: The Panthers are 5-3, but they’re 5-1 with Luke Kuechly playing full games. They’ve beaten the Bills and Patriots, and they demolished the Lions in Detroit despite what the final score says. They were also leading the Eagles prior to Kuechly going down. Once Ryan Kalil and Greg Olsen return – Olsen is eligible to play again in Week 12 – this team is going to be one of the NFL’s best.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers lost a coin-flip game to the Bills. They were a missed field goal away from beating the Patriots. They lost some games because they were completely banged up. They are better than their 2-5 record indicates; they could be 4-3 right now with some better luck, and I think they could go on a winning streak soon if Jameis Winston can get healthy.

Washington Redskins: The Redskins shouldn’t have had much of a chance against the Cowboys because they were down four offensive linemen. Yet, they were a blocked field goal away from going up nine right before halftime. They’ll be much better when they get all of their blockers back.

Overrated NFL Teams:

Atlanta Falcons: I’m done defending the Falcons. They are not the same team as last year. They were lucky to beat the Jets, and they weren’t competitive against the Patriots. Their play-calling is extremely predictable, and Steve Sarkisian is not getting the ball enough to Julio Jones. Meanwhile, their defense has been a big disappointment, as they’ve had no answers for Josh McCown or Jay Cutler in two of the past three weeks.

Buffalo Bills: The Bills have improved to 5-2 and are now getting a ton of hype, so they can be viewed as an overrated team. With the Broncos struggling, Buffalo’s second-best win of the season seems less impressive now. Their greatest victory, a triumph in Atlanta, occurred because Julio Jones got hurt. Meanwhile, the win over the Buccaneers two Sundays ago was a coin-flip game. They beat the Raiders, but only because Oakland self-destructed with so many turnovers. I don’t trust Tyrod Taylor and his poor receiving weapons.

Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys can go back to being overrated again. They’ve had two wins since their bye, but they beat up on the second-worst team in the NFL and an opponent missing four starting offensive linemen. I’m not convinced all of Dallas’ problems have been solved just yet.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: If you missed the news Tuesday morning, the Eagles acquired Jay Ajayi from the Dolphins for a fourth-round pick. Check out my NFL Trade Grades to read my thoughts on the deal. Minor spoiler alert: It was a fairly lopsided trade.

Ajayi has an extremely difficult matchup in his first game as an Eagle, as he’ll be tasked with running against the No. 1 ground defense in the NFL. I don’t expect Ajayi to accumulate many rushing yards, but his presence will make Denver’s defense respect the run, so the Eagles will be able to exploit other areas.

For example, the Broncos are extremely weak to tight ends. They couldn’t stop Travis Kelce at all Monday night, and they’ll have similar issues against Zach Ertz. Denver will need to pressure Carson Wentz as much as possible to prevent Ertz from going off, but Von Miller won’t have an easy time against Lane Johnson, one of the top right tackles in the NFL. The Eagles now have a liability on the blind side with Jason Peters out, but this is the only hole they have up front, so they should be able to compensate for it.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos, conversely, don’t protect well. Aside from Ronald Leary, they don’t have any offensive linemen who are playing well right now. This includes Menelik Watson, one of the worst right tackles in the NFL. Watson will have to go up against Brandon Graham in this matchup, which sounds disastrous, given how potent Graham is. On the other side, Vinny Curry has a big edge over mediocre rookie left tackle Garett Bolles.

It’s clear that the Broncos won’t pass protect very well. The bad news for the Eagles is that they won’t get to intercept any of Trevor Siemian’s stupid passes. The good news is that they’ll be going up against Brock Osweiler. The former Texan and Brown can’t possibly be worse than Siemian was in Kansas City on Monday night, but I can’t imagine him being much better. Osweiler played well for the Broncos a couple of years ago when they won the Super Bowl, but Denver had a better offensive line back then.

I don’t see how the Broncos will consistently move the chains. They’ll get nothing on the ground, as the Eagles’ stout defensive front has yet to surrender more than 81 rushing yards to any team this year. In fact, they’ve given up more than 58 yards on the ground only once, and that was to Kareem Hunt.

RECAP: Vance Joseph was not having the time of his life Monday night, and his time will only get worse in Philadelphia. Teams that can’t block have major issues functioning against quality opponents, so this could very easily be another Philadelphia blowout.

And I think it will be. The Broncos are playing on a short week in what happens to be their third-consecutive road game. Considering the travel and early start, there just won’t be enough time to make the appropriate adjustments, though I’m not quite sure what Denver could possibly do versus the best team in the NFL right now.

I wish this line were still -6.5, which is what it was a week ago. We lost some value with the spread moving to -7.5. I still think it’s too low, however, as I made this Philadelphia -10. Considering those figures, I think the Eagles are worth a two-unit wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread rose to -8 on Tuesday evening, but sharp money has dropped this to -7.5. The Eagles are actually -7.5 +110 at 5Dimes, but there’s a chance this number could drop to -7, so I’d wait for that.

SATURDAY NOTES: Sharp and contrarian money has caused this to fall to -7 -115 at BetUS, which is very appealing. I think the public has it right in this instance, as the Broncos are having severe problems because they can’t block. Zach Ertz is questionable, but he should play. I thought about putting a third unit on the Eagles at -7 -115, but I’m going to hold out for -7 -110 or better.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As expected, sharp money caused this line to fall to -7 -105, which would be a nice number if Zach Ertz weren’t out! The Ertz injury is a big one, so I thought about dropping this to one unit. However, I like Trey Burton, so I think Philadelphia should be fine.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

No surprise that people are betting the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 66% (36,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Eagles -7.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Eagles 30, Broncos 16
Eagles -7 -105 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 51, Broncos 23

Los Angeles Rams (5-2) at New York Giants (1-6)
Line: Rams by 6. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Rams -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Rams -5.5.
Sunday, Nov 5, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Rams.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. Here were last week’s most-bet sides:

Chiefs -7.5

Raiders +2.5

Falcons -4

Vikings -9.5

Patriots -7.5

The highest-bet sides were 13-19-1 heading into Week 8. The public recovered last week, thanks to a Falcons-Jets middle and the Patriots getting a front-door field goal at the very end of the game. Highest-bet sides are now 17-20-1.

Here are the five highest-bet sides, as of Tuesday morning:

Lions -2.5

Bills -3.5

Rams -3.5

Jaguars -4.5

Seahawks -7.5

Raiders -3

I’ve listed six games this week, as the public is pounding all of those teams. Predictably, most (4) are road favorites.

Oh, and our weekly fantasy football contest has returned. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Jared Goff has gotten lots of praise for his play this season, but it has really been his terrific coaching staff, stout offensive line and strong running game that have carried him. I can’t even imagine how good the Rams would be right now if Carson Wentz were their quarterback. That’s how much of a disparity there happens to be between the two signal-callers from the 2016 NFL Draft.

Goff should have a decent performance in this contest, as his blockers will shield him from the New York pass-rushers. Olivier Vernon has a chance to return – he called himself “day to day” – but there’s no guarantee that he’d accomplish anything against exceptional left tackle Andrew Whitworth. Jason Pierre-Paul, meanwhile, isn’t having a great year, and he seems to have an even matchup versus right tackle Rob Havenstein.

Goff should have plenty of time in the pocket, but he won’t be able to connect with Sammy Watkins, who will be blanketed by Janoris Jenkins. Of course, this is nothing new, as Watkins has been a non-factor since his crazy Thursday night performance versus the 49ers. Instead, tight ends Gerald Everett and Tyler “Eleanor” Higbee (sorry, couldn’t resist the Berman-ism) figure to do lots of damage, as New York’s terrible linebackers can’t cover tight ends. They’ll have trouble versus Todd Gurley as a receiver out of the backfield as well.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: While the Rams have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, the Giants have a terrible blocking unit. They have two viable linemen. One is Justin Pugh, who is playing out of position; he’s at right tackle when he should be stationed at guard, and he’s struggling as a result. The second is Weston Richburg, who is injured.

This definitely does not bode well against the Rams, who have a prolific front. Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers will be unblockable, while Robert Quinn, who has struggled this year, could finally wake up because of his matchup against Ereck Flowers.

It’s going to be difficult for the Giants to accomplish anything against the Rams. Eli Manning won’t have much time in the pocket, and I don’t see Evan Engram having a big game because the Rams cover tight ends well. Sterling Shepard will be back in the lineup, but how much does that really matter? Meanwhile, Orleans Darkwa will be battling a defense that just bottled up Adrian Peterson and the Cardinals to 21 rushing yards.

RECAP: This isn’t the best spot for the Rams, as they have to play an early game on the East Coast. If that sounds trivial, consider that teams are 2-7 against the spread in these situations this year.

That said, I still think the Rams could cover. They’re the better team, by far, and they match up extremely well versus the Giants. I could see them beginning the game sluggishly and then pulling away in the second half once they wake up.

I won’t be betting this game, as this spread matches the exact line I made (-3.5), but I will be picking the Rams to cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp action has caused this spread to fall to -3 -120, so I’m considering a small bet on the Rams if I can get -3 -110. Olivier Vernon and Justin Pugh are not practicing, while Janoris Jenkins has been suspended. The Giants have nothing going for them and appear to be completely outmatched. If Vernon and Pugh are out, I may even bet the Rams at -3 -120.

SATURDAY NOTES: Wow, the Giants have so many injuries, it’s ridiculous. They are missing their best offensive lineman (Justin Pugh) and center, so I don’t know how they’re going to block the Rams’ front line. On defense, Janoris Jenkins is suspended. Olivier Vernon is out. Top linebacker B.J. Goodson is out. This was already a mismatch, and the Giants are missing six key starters. I don’t like that the Rams are playing an early game on the East Coast, however, so I’m going to stay away with the line moving to -4.5. I think I’d bet a unit on -3.5 or -4 right now, but not at -4.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Forget the -3.5 and -4! This line has soared to -6, thanks to sharp and public money. There’s no value on the Rams at all now, but I wouldn’t bet the Giants either because of all of their injuries.

The Psychology. Edge: Giants.

It’s possible that the Rams, praised throughout their bye for destroying the Cardinals and Jaguars, could overlook the Giants with some tougher opponents coming up (Deshaun Watson, Vikings, Saints).

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

A good lean on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 75% (29,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Eli Manning is 42-32 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Opening Line: Rams -4.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Rams 17, Giants 10
Rams -6 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Rams 51, Giants 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5) at New Orleans Saints (5-2)
Line: Saints by 7. Total: 52.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -6.
Sunday, Nov 5, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Saints.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting lots of hate mail this season. But before we get to the hate mail this week, let me post some nice e-mails I’ve received from long-time readers concerning the Week 8 disaster:

Thanks, guys! Week 8 ended horribly, but I think I was on the right track.

On the other end of the spectrum…

I don’t understand “Walter Fudd.” Is that Elmer Fudd’s brother or bad-touch uncle, or something? I Googled it, and nothing came up. Will the geniuses who call me this please explain it to me so that I may understand?

Two long-time readers aren’t fans anymore:

Hopefully Gold Scissors keeps reading, unlike Gold Palmtree, so I may see this feedback.

Captain Hindsight has also made an appearance:

Ah, yes, let me put tons of units on a bloated point spread. That makes a lot of sense!

Gold Bee (isn’t that the name of a brothel in Midgar?) might be the biggest scumbag yet:

Seriously, thanks, Orange Corn. What a great compliment!

And finally, here’s someone who isn’t giving me enough credit:

Have people really forgotten the horrible 2014 and 2015 years already? At least I’m just suffering from the worst variance ever this year. My handicapping in 2014 and 2015 was atrocious!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I’m slightly surprised there’s a line posted for this game, as there’s a chance Jameis Winston won’t be able to play. Dirk Koetter discussed how he nearly pulled Winston out of the Carolina contest last week because Winston was having such trouble with his shoulder. I suppose the Buccaneers will decide whether Winston can play or not come Friday, but as for right now, I’m bit shocked that the books are keeping spreads up.

Then again, perhaps the books are thinking that there isn’t much of a difference between Ryan Fitzpatrick and an injured Winston, and they’re probably right. Starting either wouldn’t have been an issue against Saints defenses of the past, but this iteration is much better. New Orleans is putting good pressure on the quarterback, thanks to Cameron Jordan and Sheldon Rankins. Jordan actually has a difficult matchup versus stud right tackle Demar Dotson, but the other end, Alex Okafor, will be battling one of the worst left tackles in the NFL, Donovan Smith. Meanwhile, rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore has been impenetrable this year, so he should be able to lock down Mike Evans.

That said, the Saints still have their faults on this side of the ball. Their linebackers are poor, so they have issues covering tight ends. I expect Cameron Brate and perhaps even O.J. Howard to go off. Also, New Orleans isn’t the best at stopping the run. Doug Martin, who rushed for 71 yards against a tough Carolina defense last week, should have an even better performance versus the Saints.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Winston’s shoulder has been only part of the problem for the Buccaneers. Inept coaching is another matter. The defense, meanwhile, is the primary culprit. Tampa Bay’s secondary has been terrible this season, and it could once again be without Brent Grimes.

That obviously doesn’t bode well for the Buccaneers, as they’ll have to take on Drew Brees, Michael Thomas and the rest of the Saints in the Superdome. They’ll have to put as much pressure on Brees as possible without blitzing, but they really have just one edge in the trenches, with Gerald McCoy going up against second-string guard Senio Kelemete. Tampa’s best pass-rusher, Robert Ayers, should be stymied versus left tackle Terron Armstead.

The Saints didn’t need to throw very much versus the Bears, and that could once again be the case. They’ve been running the ball extremely well, and the Buccaneers have surrendered at least 100 rushing yards to four of their previous six opponents, with the exceptions being the Giants and Panthers, who can’t pound the rock effectively. That said, Tampa has had plenty of injury issues, so the team should be better versus the rush than it was a couple of weeks ago when Adrian Peterson trampled them.

RECAP: When I saw the Buccaneers lose to the Panthers and the Saints continue their winning streak, I was hoping for a bloated point spread in this game. Something like Saints -9, or even -9.5. I figured the Buccaneers would offer a nice buy-low opportunity this week.

Alas, the line is just -7 for some reason, and Fitzpatrick could start. It’s a bummer that we aren’t getting much value with the Buccaneers, though I’m still going to pick them because I expect them to play better this week in a do-or-die situation. I also think the Saints are a bit overrated, as their previous four victories have come against Mitchell Trubisky, Brett Hundley, an injured Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler. They could still be great – I have them seventh in my NFL Power Rankings – but their defense hasn’t really been tested yet.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have taken the Buccaneers at +7. I guess we now know why the spread wasn’t bloated like I was hoping it would be. I’m a bit confused by this decision, as Brent Grimes hasn’t been practicing.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jameis Winston sounds like he’s healthier, but this line doesn’t provide much value, especially with Brent Grimes out.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have bet the underdog a bit, but not enough, as the line has remained stagnant at -7. I still don’t like either side, as there’s not enough line value with the Buccaneers.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
I thought there would be way more action on the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 63% (31,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won 9 of the last 11 meetings.

Road Team is 79-47 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Saints are 38-27 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Drew Brees is 41-27 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Opening Line: Saints -7.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Saints 27, Buccaneers 21
Buccaneers +7 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 52.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 30, Buccaneers 10

Cincinnati Bengals (3-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3)
Line: Jaguars by 6. Total: 38.5
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Jaguars -3.
Sunday, Nov 5, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Jaguars.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I’ve been asked for my opinion on Bob McNair’s comments last Friday. If you somehow missed it, McNair said of the NFL players kneeling during the national anthem: “You can’t have the inmates running the prison.”

I really don’t feel like delving into non-football stuff. Here’s what I will say, though: McNair could have easily made the whole thing go away with one sentence in his apology. When asked to clarify what he said, he could have responded:

“I’m sorry if I upset anyone, but when I was referring to inmates, I meant Dallas Cowboys players only.”

How epic would that have been? It would’ve been the ultimate burn against one of his team’s greatest rivals, and it would’ve been truthful based on how many players with legal issues the Cowboys have employed over the years.

2. I think I speak for everyone when I say that thank God the early London games are over with. I don’t mind the London games that begin at 1 p.m. Eastern, but the 9:30 a.m. starts are absolutely brutal. The games are usually terrible – all three were blowouts this year – and they dick over the fans.

What do I mean by that? Well, something that Chet wrote in his Fantasy Football 2-Minute Warning really stood out to me: “Make sure to get up early enough to check [Stefon Diggs’] status.”

The NFL is great, but it can be so f***ing stupid sometimes. It’s really amazing how they’re trying to get more West Coast fans, as evidenced by expanding into Los Angeles and Las Vegas, and yet they’re screwing over the fans there. Can you imagine living in Los Angeles and Las Vegas, and having to wake up around 6:15 a.m. just to check on Diggs’ fantasy status? That sounds f***ing horrible. Why would the NFL do this? People watch football primarily for fantasy and betting purposes, so not accommodating to fantasy players and bettors just seems ridiculously stupid.

I really hope the NFL comes to its senses and stops these horrible 9:30 a.m. London games. Enough is enough. The experiment has failed, miserably. No one likes these early starts, and the league is screwing its customers. It would be completely asinine to allow this to continue.

3. Speaking of Las Vegas, I’ve been writing that the Raiders’ decision to move to Sin City is a stupid one, given that they’ll have an awful home-field advantage. My premise was that while there are some Raider fans in Vegas, and I’m sure some would drive over from Oakland, there wouldn’t be enough to fill the stadium. I even joked that Mark Davis would have to put mannequins in the seats to make it seem like the stadium was even halfway full.

Well, something I saw on Twitter changed my mind:

Wow. That’s something I’ve never considered. Could teams visiting Las Vegas be so distracted by all the fun activities to do out there that they’ll be unfocused to play the Raiders? If so, the Raiders may have a great home-field advantage after all, despite their stadium resembling a giant catacomb.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Blake Bortles had one of the best performances of his career prior to the bye, torching the Colts mercilessly. Bortles has actually covered the past three times he’s been in Indianapolis, so he must not know where the clubs are in that city (if there even are any). That would be the only reasonable explanation I have for Bortles doing so well against the Colts.

Actually, there’s another explanation. Indianapolis’ defense sucks. Cincinnati’s certainly does not. The Bengals have a tremendous pass rush, led by Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins. The two figure to dominate this matchup, as Jacksonville has one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Dunlap has a big edge over Jermey Parnell, and yet that’s still nothing compared to the enormous advantage Atkins will have versus the Jaguars’ poor interior. Meanwhile, rookie left tackle Cam Robinson is also a major liability the Bengals will exploit.

The Jaguars don’t have many downfield weapons for Bortles, so the passing attack won’t accomplish much. Leonard Fournette, returning from injury, will likely have a long run at some point, but I expect the Bengals to bottle him up for the most part.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Like the Jaguars, the Bengals have some major blocking problems. Clint Boling is the only viable offensive lineman on their roster. That spells trouble versus the Jacksonville vaunted front, which will now have Marcell Dareus to provide even more pressure. Most of the heat will come from the edge in this contest, as Dante Fowler and Yannick Ngakoue have dream matchups against Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher, respectively.

Contrary to Bortles, Andy Dalton has a potent weapon to throw to in A.J. Green. Unfortunately for Dalton, he may have extremely difficulty getting the ball to Green, thanks to Jalen Ramsey’s elite coverage ability. Tyler Kroft should get some receptions against a defense that is just average versus tight ends, but Kroft is a limited talent.

The Bengals will need Joe Mixon to go off to get points on the scoreboard. The Jaguars have defended the rush well on most downs, but they’ve allowed several long runs this year. Perhaps Mixon will be fortunate in that regard, but this is not something Cincinnati should count on.

RECAP: This is one of my top plays of the week. I’m on the Bengals for five units.

I don’t understand this point spread. I rate the Jaguars and Bengals almost evenly – the former slightly higher – and Jacksonville’s home-field advantage is worth a point, 1.5 at most. Thus, my personal spread is Jaguars -2.5. Yet, Jacksonville is favored by 4.5. Two points may not sound like a lot, but it’s crossing the main key number of three and a lesser one as well (4).

Not only is the line off, but the Jaguars are in a terrible spot. They clobbered the Colts prior to the bye, so they’ve had two weeks to hear about how great they are. They also just watched their current opponent have trouble beating the team they demolished in Week 7. I’ll be shocked if they’re motivated for this game.

Both offenses are going to be limited, and in a defensive grinder, I prefer to have an underdog of more than a field goal. The Bengals should keep this close and perhaps pull the outright upset.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has risen to +5.5 in most books, but +6 -115 is available at Bovada. Is that better than +5.5? According to the math, +6 -115 is better by about 0.6 percent (and maybe a bit more now because of the overtime rules).

SATURDAY NOTES: Sharp action has moved this to +6 in several books, which I find confusing. In what world does Jacksonville deserve to be favored by six over a competent opponent? This line might keep going up, but I’m going to lock in the +6 just in case it falls back down.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I felt sort of dumb for locking this in at +6, as this line went up to +6.5 on Sunday morning. I wasn’t too down on myself, however, because I thought +6 was a great number. That apparently turned out to be the case, as this line has dropped to +5 because Leonard Fournette violated team rules. Then, there were sharp bets made at -5.

The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.

The Jaguars had a blowout victory prior to the bye. They’ve had two weeks to hear about how great they are, and they just watched the team they clobbered nearly defeat this opponent. I can’t see Jacksonville getting up for this game at all.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 53% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Bengals are 35-21 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Jaguars are 31-63 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 8-17 ATS as home favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Jaguars -3.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Bengals 17, Jaguars 16
Bengals +6 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Under 38.5 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Jaguars 23, Bengals 7

Atlanta Falcons (4-3) at Carolina Panthers (5-3)
Line: Falcons by 3. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Panthers -2.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -3.
Sunday, Nov 5, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Panthers.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. Butch Jones learned last week that “ur mom still loves yuo” from the illiterate Alabama fans:

Tennessee, however, does not love Butch Jones, as he’s certain to be fired after this season. The question is who will become Tennessee’s next head coach.

How about Jon Gruden?

It may seem odd that Gruden would leave ESPN, and I would ordinarily agree. However, consider this: Gruden as Tennessee’s head coach opened at 20:1 at a major sportsbook. The line moved to 2.5:1 very quickly! That means someone bet a ton of money on Gruden becoming Tennessee’s next head coach.

Was this just a case of someone spending lots of cash irresponsibly? Maybe. However, it could also be possible that someone knows something, and that something could be that Gruden might be a part of ESPN’s next batch of layoffs. ESPN, a network that is capsizing because of sheer incompetence, horrendous hires, injection into politics and cord cutters, is set to fire countless more employees in the coming weeks. What if someone who knows Gruden is being let go figures that Gruden will go to Tennessee? Gruden has been linked to Tennessee before, so the fit makes sense if he doesn’t want to return to the NFL.

As for Gruden’s replacement in the Monday Night Football booth? My guess is Sergio Dipp. ESPN’s ideal employee, Dipp’s stock is at an all-time low, meaning ESPN could probably hire him to be the Monday night analyst for minimum wage. Perhaps that’ll keep ESPN afloat for another five or so years.

2. Speaking of Tennessee, the Vols at least have an NFL Draft prospect in John Kelly. Check out where he’s ranked in the 2018 NFL Draft Running Back Prospect Rankings.

And speaking of 2018 NFL Draft running backs, Iowa’s Akrum Wadley intrigues me. Not because he’s a talented player, but because of his name.

If I were Wadley, I’d switch two letters in my first name. I’d become Arkum Wadley, so I’d sound like Arkham. I would then paint my face and wear a strange, colorful costume in broad daylight. I would tell reporters that I would kill any defenders who would tackle me, and that “not even Batman could stop me!”

The result of this would be predictable. No one in their right mind would want to tackle Arkum Wadley. He’d score 80-yard touchdowns with ease, and he’d rush for 600 yards per game in the NFL. At that rate, it would only take him 31 games to break Emmitt Smith’s all-time rushing record. That’s fewer than two seasons!

3. As for the top running back in the 2018 NFL Draft class, Saquon Barkley was up to his usual antics against Ohio State, returning the opening kickoff. Barkley could end up being the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.

Someone on Twitter was enthused about Barkley. Perhaps a bit too enthused…

That’s impressive. So, this guy is saying that the Browns can get a running back who kills his ex-wife, her boyfriend, and others!?

Someone replied to this guy’s tweet, “I hope you enjoyed working for ESPN.”

Would ESPN fire someone for saying something like that? Umm… yeah. Like I said, ESPN does stupid things, and that’s exactly why Sergio Dipp will be in the Monday night booth at some point.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons managed to squeeze out a victory in rainy conditions against the Jets, but their offense remains a concern. Matt Ryan’s numbers are down from last year, Julio Jones isn’t getting the ball enough, and the running game isn’t very imposing. Steve Sarkisian deserves most of the blame, but the players aren’t performing up to their abilities either.

Right tackle Ryan Schraeder, for example, hasn’t been nearly as prolific as he was in 2016. He’s been very mediocre, and that could allow Mario Addison to beat him. Meanwhile, Carolina has a tremendous edge with Kawann Short going up against horrible guard Wes Schweitzer. The Panthers will certainly flood the backfield in this matchup, making it more difficult for Ryan to find Jones compared to what transpired last year when Jones went absolutely nuts in the first meeting.

Atlanta will struggle to run the ball as well. Luke Kuechly being back has improved the Panthers’ ground defense tremendously, so Carolina should have success keeping the Falcons in long-yardage situations for most of the afternoon.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers haven’t been very good on this side of the ball either. Center Ryan Kalil’s absence has been huge, and it’s now sounding like he may not play again this year. Carolina has also missed Greg Olsen, but he’ll be back in Week 12.

As for this contest, the Falcons don’t have the strongest edge rush, which is what’s needed to slow down Cam Newton. I feel like they would if they would give Takk McKinley more snaps, but Vic Beasley is playing ineffectively instead. Exploiting terrible left tackle Matt Kalil will be huge for the Falcons, as they don’t seem like they’ll be able to beat right tackle Daryl Williams.

Meanwhile, Newton should have some success throwing against an Atlanta linebacking corps that has struggled versus tight ends and pass-catching running backs. Ed Dickson could have another big game like he did versus the Lions in Week 5. Christian McCaffrey could perhaps get back on track as well.

RECAP: This is another spread that doesn’t make any sense to me. Why are the Panthers favored by less than a field goal against an inferior opponent? If anything, this line should be above three.

My number is Panthers -3.5, and yes, I believe Carolina is better than Atlanta. The Falcons are being regarded as a byproduct of price memory right now. Everyone remembers how good they were last year, but they’ve played like crap for most of this season. They were a dropped pass away from losing to the Bears. They lost to the Dolphins at home. They weren’t competitive at New England (and Carolina was). They had major issues against the Jets. The Falcons might be 4-3 right now, but they could easily be 3-4 or even 2-5. They could also be better than 4-3, but that involves them beating two middling AFC East foes they should’ve defeated in the first place.

The Panthers, meanwhile, are so much better with Kuechly on the field. They’re 5-1 this year when Kuechly plays full games. I think they’re underrated right now because people saw them lose to the Bears recently. Kuechly wasn’t on the field for that contest, and Chicago had two fluky defensive touchdowns anyway. The week before, the Panthers led the Eagles until Kuechly went down.

Carolina didn’t get up for Chicago, but it will be playing with a determined mindset in this contest. This is a double-revenge game for the Panthers, after all, as Atlanta swept them last year. Oh, and by the way, this is the Falcons’ third-consecutive road game. While that doesn’t mean a lot if there isn’t a ton of flight mileage involved, it’s still the slightest edge in Carolina’s favor.

With all of these factors, I love the Panthers, and I’m willing to bet four units on them as long as the spread stays under -3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t understand why the Falcons are favored now. Even with Kelvin Benjamin gone, I still think the Panthers should be -3, as these teams are close to being even. Panthers +1 -105 provides some great value, so I’m going to move to five units.

SATURDAY NOTES: This line keeps going up, as the Falcons are now 2.5-point favorites in most books. This line movement is extremely confusing, as I think the Panthers should be favored by a field goal! I’m keeping five units on Carolina, and if this spread hits +3, we could be talking Pick of the Month. Note that +2 (-105) at Bovada is better than +2.5, but only by 0.2 percent.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Good news, bad news. The bad news is that the sharps are on the Falcons. The good news is that this has caused Panthers +3 -120 to appear at BetUS, which seems like a fantastic number.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 51% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

History: Falcons have won 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Opening Line: Panthers -1.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Panthers 27, Falcons 20
Panthers +3 -120 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Panthers 20, Falcons 17

Indianapolis Colts (2-6) at Houston Texans (4-3)
Line: Texans by 6. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -10.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -4.
Sunday, Nov 5, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Texans.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started six years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Aaron Hernandez, Tom Brady and Walter White. I’ll have new answers to Spam Mails here, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Deshaun Watson had an amazing performance against the Seahawks, albeit against an overrated secondary. Richard Sherman hasn’t been the same this year, while Earl Thomas pulled up with a hamstring at one point during last week’s affair.

The Colts have secondary issues as well, and theirs are obviously more dire than Seattle’s. Malik Hooker being out for the year really hurts, while Rahsaan Melvin was missed last week. Melvin, the Colts’ top cornerback, is in concussion protocol, so his return this week would be huge because Indianapolis needs to find a way to stop Watson from throwing bombs downfield to DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller.

One way to do that would be to pressure Watson relentlessly. Watson was sacked five times in Seattle, and that was with Duane Brown on the field. Now, Watson won’t have his best offensive lineman. The Colts can put a decent amount of pressure on the quarterback with Jabaal Sheard and Barkevious Mingo. John Simon would also help, but it’s unknown if he’ll return from injury this week.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Speaking of defensive injuries, the Texans have numerous significant ones. J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus were already out. Now, Christian Covington has joined them on injured reserve. Covington was a tremendous run-stuffer who provided some pass rush, so he’ll be missed. The Texans are running out of viable defensive linemen, so that should help the Colts in this contest.

Houston’s best player remaining in the front seven is Jadeveon Clowney, who had a terrific performance last week. However, Clowney also had the easiest matchup of his professional career, going up against Rees Odhiambo. Anthony Castonzo, Indianapolis’ best blocker, will provide a much more difficult challenge for Clowney, who could be mostly neutralized. If so, Jacoby Brissett will have more time in the pocket than he’s used to, so he should have an opportunity to dissect a Houston secondary that couldn’t cover Paul Richardson and Tyler Lockett.

The Texans shut down the run in Seattle, but Covington’s injury will make a big difference going forward. I don’t expect Frank Gore to have a great game, or anything, but I also don’t think he’ll be totally bottled up in the backfield. He should help Brissett stay out of unfavorable third-and-long situations on most occasions.

RECAP: Talk about an overreaction. The Texans were -10.5 on the advance line, and now they’re favored by 13 because of one game. Granted, it was a brilliant game, but it was just one result nonetheless. Unless a major injury is involved, I don’t think one game should ever validate that sort of a line swing.

This spread is definitely too high. I made this line -9.5, so I believe we’re getting 3.5 points of value with the Colts, which is substantial, considering we’re going through the key number of 10. And if you don’t think this number is too high, think about it this way: The 49ers were +13 at Philadelphia last week. Indianapolis and San Francisco (without Jimmy Garoppolo) were very close to even; the two played several weeks ago, and the game went to overtime. So, this line is effectively saying that the Colts would also be +13 at Philadelphia. That means, according to this spread, that the Texans and Eagles are dead even. And we know that’s wrong.

In addition to the incorrect spread, something to consider is that the Texans could be flat following that loss to the Seahawks. It seems like they may have put all of their eggs in one basket in the wake of Bob McNair’s comments. They played a very emotional game, so getting up for an inferior opponent after that could be difficult.

I like the Colts to cover for three units. I’m not going to go above that because I don’t completely trust them, but I think they’re worth a sizable bet.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Deshaun Watson is out – check out my Disaster Grades for that – and the new line is Colts +7. I’m going to keep three units on Indianapolis. I don’t trust the Colts, especially with Anthony Castonzo being banged up, but there’s no way in hell Watson is worth only six points. I would have made this Texans -4, so we’re getting three points of value.

SATURDAY NOTES: With Anthony Castonzo in doubt, I’m going to drop the unit count to two units. I don’t like that +7 -115 is the best number available.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Anthony Castonzo will play, which is what may have prompted the sharps to bet the Colts down to +6. I still like Indianapolis for two units.

The Psychology. Edge: Colts.

With the pre-game protest and the close shootout, I have to wonder if the Texans put all their eggs in one basket.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 56% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Colts have won 23 of the 30 meetings (Texans won the last 3).

Favorites after playing the Seahawks are 15-31 ATS.

Opening Line: Texans -13.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Texans 23, Colts 20
Colts +6 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 45 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Colts 20, Texans 14

Baltimore Ravens (4-4) at Tennessee Titans (4-3)
Line: Titans by 3.5. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Titans -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Titans -3.
Sunday, Nov 5, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: TBA.

Video of the Week: This video is a boring advertisement for an air compressor. However, I’m posting it because I had a good laugh at what they say starting at the 49-second mark:

I wonder if Tom Brady has seen this. If not, someone, please e-mail this to him. I’d love for him to buy the company and destroy every single Air Dragon ever made. Brady, of course, has plenty of experience destroying devices, so this will come naturally to him.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: There’s no line on this game because of Joe Flacco’s concussion. He’s currently in protocol, but John Harbaugh said there’s a good chance Flacco will play this week. Still, I can’t blame the books for not posting a number just yet because there’s a substantial difference between Flacco and Ryan Mallett, who is barely a functional NFL quarterback.

Let’s talk about the Ravens as if Flacco were playing because there’s no way they’d be able to move the chains with Mallett. Flacco hurled a deep touchdown to Jeremy Maclin against the Dolphins, who have a pretty poor secondary. Tennessee has a superior defensive backfield with Logan Ryan and Kevin Byard playing well, and Adoree Jackson improving in recent weeks. However, Tennessee has struggled defending tight ends, so perhaps Flacco could have some success targeting Ben Watson.

A breakout performer in the Thursday night affair was Alex Collins, who trampled the Dolphins. However, I’m not fully convinced that this wasn’t a mirage. Collins has always been a middling talent, and it didn’t really look like the Dolphins were trying very hard. The Titans have allowed just two 100-yard rushing performances this year, so they should be able to clamp down on Collins.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans have some quarterback injury concerns of their own. Marcus Mariota will definitely play, but will he be himself? Mariota was limited in the two games prior to the bye with a hamstring injury. However, he’s had two weeks to recover, so there’s a chance he could be 100 percent. This isn’t a given, obviously.

Mariota’s ability to move around could be the difference in the Titans covering the spread or not, as I don’t see them having much success rushing the ball with their two running backs. The Ravens were anemic versus ground attacks for a while, but Brandon Williams’ return to the field has changed that. They bottled up Jay Ajayi, so they should have similar success versus DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry.

Meanwhile, Mariota could be down a passing option, as it sounds like Delanie Walker could miss this game. Mariota will have to attack the Ravens downfield with his receivers, and if that’s the case, it could be treacherous, as Matt Moore discovered last Thursday. There are two pieces of good news, however. The first is that rookie receiver Corey Davis should be making his return to the field. The second is that the Titans will be able to neutralize Baltimore’s top pass-rusher, Terrell Suggs, with elite left tackle Taylor Lewan.

RECAP: There’s no spread on this game just yet. The line I made for this matchup is Titans -4.5, which assumes that Flacco will play. Thus, we have to see what the line will be. For now, I’ll mark down the Ravens as the pick, but I could change it later in the week. Check back, or follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A line has been posted for this game. It opened Titans -4.5, but the sharps pounded the Ravens down to -3. I think they could be on the right side, as the Titans could be without Delanie Walker and a starting guard. Plus, we don’t know if Marcus Mariota can scramble.

SATURDAY NOTES: For those looking at my Supercontest picks, don’t be confused about my Ravens pick. That line is +5 in the contest, and that value was too good to pass up. The real spread is +3.5, which is only half of a point above my projected number of +3. I like the Ravens, as I trust John Harbaugh with extra time to prepare over Mike Mularkey. Also, Tennessee will be missing starting guard Quinton Spain and possibly Delanie Walker.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a bit of sharp money on the Ravens. This line has dropped to +3 in most books, but if you still want to bet the Ravens, you can get +3.5 -115 at Bovada. I’d rather have that than +3 -110 and even +3 -105. The margin difference between +3.5 -115 and +3 -105 is about 2 percent, for those of you who are wondering.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

Decent amount of money on the Titans.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 69% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Titans -4.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Titans 24, Ravens 23
Ravens +3.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Titans 23, Ravens 20

Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games
Arizona at San Francisco, Washington at Seattle, Kansas City at Dallas, Oakland at Miami, Detroit at Green Bay

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)