NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17, 2016

NFL Picks (Preseason 2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 13-3 (+$1,735) full review
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2016): 9-7 (-$430) full review
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2016): 7-7-2 (+$880) full review
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2016): 7-8 (-$70) full review
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2016): 6-7-1 (+$115) full review
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2016): 7-7-1 (+$515) full review
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2016): 11-4 (+$1,560) full review
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2016): 8-4-1 (-$60) full review
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2016): 5-6-2 (-$1,170) full review
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2016): 9-4-1 (+$80) full review
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2016): 7-7 (+$225) full review
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2016): 5-10-1 (-$1,090) full review
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2016): 9-6 (-$205) full review
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2016): 7-8-1 (-$440) full review
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2016): 8-8 (+$55) full review
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2016): 4-12 (-$2,205)

NFL Picks (2016): 134-115-9 (+$785)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Jan. 1, 11:40 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 17 NFL Picks – Late Games

Houston Texans (9-6) at Tennessee Titans (8-7)
Line: Titans by 3. Total: 39.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Titans -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Titans -3.
Sunday, Jan 1, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Titans.

WEEK 16 RECAP: I just had my worst week of the year. I was 4-11 (-$1,680) heading into Monday Night Football, and I wrote that a failed Detroit cover could make this an all-timer. Well, that’s exactly what it was, as I finished 4-12, (-$2205). My winnings this year have now dropped to triple digits after they were up in the $5,000s back in early November.

I’m sorry for being so terrible in Week 16. I have no excuses. My handicapping was horrible. I’ll still stand by the Chicago and Detroit picks, but I don’t know what I was thinking with some of these other sides. Betting the Panthers, who were playing on just four days of rest following a win, was just a dumb thing to do. The Colts and Buccaneers should’ve been one-unit wagers at the most. And I don’t know why I didn’t bet more on the Cardinals and Ravens. Both seemed appealing as big underdogs, and over Christmas dinner, my dad said he was shocked that I didn’t make either big bets because “those are the games you usually like.” Like I said, I was dumb, and I have no excuses.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The poor Titans were probably going to lose to the Jaguars, given how lethargic they were compared to fired-up Jacksonville, but they definitely lost all hope once Marcus Mariota went down. Matt Cassel is a horrible quarterback, as he’s one of the worst backups in the NFL. We all saw what he was capable of in Dallas last year.

Helping Cassel, however, are a strong running game and a terrific offensive line. The Titans will be able to run the ball on the Texans, who have been mediocre or slightly above average against ground attacks this year. However, Houston, locked into the No. 4 seed, could be sitting some of its starters. That will allow DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry to run wild, setting up some nice short-yardage opportunities for Cassel.

I normally wouldn’t trust Cassel to move the chains at all, but if top cornerback A.J. Bouye sits, the Titans could have Rishard Matthews open for some significant gains. Cassel will have the time to find him, thanks to Tennessee’s great blocking.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: I’m going to make this quick because it’s unclear which starters will actually be playing. I imagine the Texans will want to get Tom Savage some snaps in order to prepare him for the playoffs, but I can’t see DeAndre Hopkins playing very much, if at all. There’s no need to risk him, as a Hopkins injury will pretty much end all hope for the Texans (not that they have much, anyway). Lamar Miller almost certainly won’t be on the field, and it wouldn’t be surprising to me if stud left tackle Duane Brown sits as well.

I’d like to give you more analysis here, but it’s pretty difficult to do so. We don’t even know who’s going to be playing!

RECAP: This is one of many games that happens to be unbettable this week. The Titans seem like the right side at first glance, as the Texans, with their starters, barely got by a skeleton-crew Bengal team, and now Houston may not be using some its key players. However, expecting Cassel to cover three points doesn’t seem like the greatest idea, especially if Houston actually suits up its star players. I’m going to pass on this one, taking Tennessee just for office-pool purposes.

I’ll be posting NFL Picks all day Tuesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This juice on this game is moving in Tennessee’s direction, so it wouldn’t surprise me if this line moves to -3.5 at some point. I still wouldn’t take the Texans at that number because they might be sitting their starters. I won’t be betting this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: This line has moved to Titans -4. That would be sharp movement, as the public is betting on Houston. The pros could be on Tennessee because they recognize the Texans won’t be playing their starters most of the game. Jadeveon Clowney won’t be on the field. I would not take the Titans at -4.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Titans have moved back down to -3, but I still have no interest in laying points with Matt Cassel.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
This game means nothing for the Texans.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
A slight lean on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 60% (9,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 8 of the last 9 meetings.

Opening Line: Titans -3.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Titans 19, Texans 13
Titans -3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 39 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Titans 24, Texans 17

Buffalo Bills (7-8) at New York Jets (3-12)
Line: Bills by 4.5. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bills -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bills -3.
Sunday, Jan 1, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Bills.

OVERRATED-UNDERRATED: I posted betting trends and such in this spot over the past couple of years, but I won’t be doing that as much because I’ll be moving away from trends. Instead, I’ll list some underrated observations that the media either isn’t discussing or is misinforming the public about. I think I’ll do this in conjunction with overrated and underrated teams…

Underrated NFL Teams:

Chicago Bears: Matt Barkley has somehow been pretty competent in four of his five starts thus far. He imploded against the Redskins with five interceptions, but he had been playing well otherwise. Jordan Howard has been a forceful running back, while the defense performed well prior to playing Washington. The Bears also now have a dynamic downfield play-maker now that Alshon Jeffery is back from injury. The Bears are miles better than the other two-, three- and four-win teams in the NFL.

Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles are now 4-1 with Lane Johnson, and that record would be 5-0 if Ryan Mathews hadn’t fumbled at the end of the Detroit game. That’s one of many close contests the Eagles have lost this season, as six of their nine defeats have been within a touchdown, and that includes the loss at Dallas in which they were winning in the fourth quarter. With some positive adjustments this upcoming offseason, the Eagles will be in a position to make a run at the NFC East crown in 2017.

New Orleans Saints: I know yards per play is not a concrete determination of how teams are playing, but it’s still an important statistic, and the Saints happen to be doing very well in that regard. Did you know that they’ve outgained their opponents in yards per play in six of their previous seven games? The lone exception was at Arizona, a contest New Orleans won. The Saints have had some bad luck. They had their game-winning extra point blocked versus Denver, and they also dropped numerous touchdowns in a loss at Tampa. The Saints have six defeats this year of six or fewer points, so they could be much better than 7-8 right now.

Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens are the best team not to make the playoffs. They incurred some losses earlier in the year when they were banged up, but they played better when everyone returned from injuries. The only team I can definitively say is better than them in the AFC is New England; the Ravens and Chiefs appear to be pretty even, and Baltimore is very close to the Steelers as well, given that the Ravens were nine seconds away from winning in Pittsburgh. I would’ve listed the Raiders prior to the Derek Carr injury, and Miami can’t be considered at all because the Ravens destroyed the Ryan Tannehill-led Dolphins in Week 13.

Overrated NFL Teams:

Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons are just 2-2 in the previous four games they’ve played against real NFL teams. Atlanta just defeated Carolina, but the Panthers looked too fatigued to tackle, given that they were playing on just four days of rest. Anyway, I still can’t get over how the Falcons were bullied in the trenches by a Philadelphia team that was stomped on by the Seahawks. The Falcons are a soft team that can be pushed around. Also, Desmond Trufant is lost for the year, which will be huge against real NFL teams.

New York Giants: People were asking me if I changed my mind about the Giants being overrated in the wake of their victory over Detroit. I haven’t, and as a result, the Philadelphia loss didn’t surprise me at all. The Lions lost the player they planned on covering Odell Beckham Jr. with in the first quarter, and Zach Zenner fumbled inside the 5-yard line. The Lions outgained the Giants in total yards and yards per play. This Giant team reminds me a lot of the 2013 Chiefs, who started 10-0. I called that Kansas City team vastly overrated, even when they were 10-0, and it lost its initial playoff game, which was hardly a surprise. Those Chiefs eked out close wins versus mediocre and bad teams and lucked out versus decent competition, and that’s what this New York team has done.

Kansas City Chiefs: Everyone is going to be focusing on the wins against the Broncos and Raiders. However, Denver sucks, and Oakland didn’t have its top offensive lineman, who was a surprise scratch, and Derek Carr was so banged up that he couldn’t complete routine 3-yard passes. Meanwhile, the Chiefs lost to the Buccaneers and Titans at home recently, and let’s not forget that they needed a miraculous comeback to win at Carolina.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: He’s back! Ryan Fitzpatrick will once again get the nod, as the Jets just can’t get rid of him, almost as if he were an annoying cold sore. I really don’t understand why Christian Hackenberg isn’t being named the starter, but I’ve ranted about that far too often in recent weeks, so I’ll just let it go for now.

Fitzpatrick does give the Jets some stability, as I trust him more than Bryce Petty. That’s not saying much, but we’ve seen Fitzpatrick have success against the Bills. He torched them back in Week 2, with New York demolishing Buffalo in a Thursday night affair. These teams have gone in different directions since – who would’ve thought that at the time? – but Buffalo’s issues against the pass are still prevalent. Stephon Gilmore hasn’t been himself, while Aaron Williams’ absence has been huge. However, things are different for New York’s passing attack as well. Eric Decker won’t be on the field, while Brandon Marshall is banged up. Meanwhile, the left tackle situation is very worrisome. Guard Ben Ijalana is starting there, and he won’t have a chance against Lorenzo Alexander.

The Jets will get some yards with Bilal Powell, however. Powell has been great since taking over for Matt Forte as the primary running back, and the Bills have allowed some long gains on the ground of late.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Speaking of long gains on the ground, LeSean McCoy will almost certainly generate those against the pathetic Jets. New York was once good against ground attacks, but several players have packed it in. Muhammad Wilkerson, for example, stopped trying a couple of months ago. He’s gotten so lazy that he refused to go to a team meeting where they were giving him a birthday cake. This is a true story.

McCoy being able to gash the Jets will open things up for Tyrod Taylor, who probably didn’t need much help in this matchup. The Jets’ struggles versus aerial attacks have been well-documented. Darrelle Revis, another player who has quit, will have major problems trying to cover Sammy Watkins. I’d also expect Charles Clay to have a decent game against the Jets’ struggling linebackers.

The one concern for Taylor is pass protection. Center Eric Wood’s absence has been damaging, as has left tackle Cordy Glenn’s. The Jets don’t have the edge rush to abuse Glenn’s backup, but Leonard Williams, one of the few Jet defenders still trying hard, will have his way with Wood’s replacement.

RECAP: This spread seems like it’s way too high. Favoring the Bills by six on the road seems a little outrageous. I’ve discussed this in the NFL Power Rankings, but the Bills have beaten nothing but crap teams this year, save for Arizona in Week 3, and the Jacoby Brissett-led Patriots the following Sunday. Their previous five victories have come against the Browns, Jaguars, Bengals (the game they lost A.J. Green), 49ers and Rams.

That said, the Jets are a crap team as well. They’ll certainly make their way onto Buffalo’s prestigious list, but will that defeat be by more than six points? I’m thinking no, as there seems to be some value with New York. However, the most I’m willing to bet on the Jets is just one unit, as it’s quite possible that they could be a complete no-show in Week 17. I do think it’s possible that the Bills won’t try hard as well though, given that Rex Ryan is a lame-duck coach. Teams set to fire their head coaches have a terrible track record in Week 17 games, so that’s working against Buffalo in this instance.

REX RYAN UPDATE: The Bills have fired Rex Ryan, and they’ve decided to start E.J. Manuel to avoid paying Taylor Taylor $31 million in the event of an injury. Illustrating how much worse Manuel is than Taylor, this spread shot straight down to +3.5. Manuel is absolute garbage – Cardale Jones should be getting the start instead – and does not deserve to be favored by more than a field goal, so I’m going to keep this as a one-unit wager at the reduced spread.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m going to drop the one unit I had on this game after reading that Brandon Marshall tried to start fights in the locker room during halftime last week. This Jets team is absolutely toxic and needs to be blown up.

SATURDAY NOTES: Kyle Williams is doubtful for the Bills, meaning Buffalo’s run defense will be weaker. It’d be nice if the Jets could exploit that, but Bilal Powell could miss this game. I took a unit off the Jets because I don’t trust them to play hard, and I still feel that way.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Public money has driven this spread up to -4.5. I considered placing a unit on the Jets, but, ugh… They just may not show up.

The Psychology. Edge: Jets.
The Bills have a lame-duck coach, but will the Jets show up?

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Everyone is betting the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 68% (6,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

History: Bills have won 5 of the last 6 meetings (home team has won 6 of the last 9).

Bills are 8-30 ATS after playing the Miami Dolphins since 1998.

Rex Ryan is 6-10 ATS following a loss as a favorite.

True home teams are 33-25 ATS in the last 59 Bills games.

Opening Line: Bills -5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Bills 24, Jets 23
Jets +4.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jets 30, Bills 10

Baltimore Ravens (8-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-9-1)
Line: Ravens by 1. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -2.5.
Sunday, Jan 1, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Ravens.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot in coming weeks. Here were the five highest-bet sides, as of Tuesday morning last week:

Giants -2.5

Titans -4.5

Chargers -6

Packers -6.5

Falcons -3

Those teams went 2-3 ATS, bringing the overall record this season to 37-32-1. For the first time in six weeks, Vegas had a winning football Sunday (Saturday in this case). Going 3-2 may not seem like anything substantial, but so many favorites lost that it broke up teasers. Still, it was disheartening to see public bettors continue to win with the Packers, Falcons, and to some extent, the Patriots, Chiefs and Cowboys.

Here are the highest-bet teams in Week 17, as of Tuesday morning:

Packers -3.5

Bills -6

Seahawks -9.5

Chiefs -5

The Green Bay line just opened as of this writing, but there was so much instant action on them that the books moved the line from -3 to -3.5 in a matter of minutes.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Ownership overruling Marvin Lewis and declaring that A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert wouldn’t play the final two games was kind of a dick move, but a necessary one as well. Why even use them in meaningless games and risk further injury? And why ruin some great draft positioning? The Bengals are building for 2017; not Weeks 16 and 17 in a dead year.

That said, it’s once again going to be very difficult for the Bengals to move the chains consistently. Andy Dalton won’t have any sort of play-makers, and one of his stud guards happens to be out as well, so it’s difficult to imagine Cincinnati having lots of success on this side of the ball. The Bengals had just three positive drives at Houston, and one involved a fluky long play by Brandon LaFell, thanks to one of the worst angles you’ll ever see a safety take.

At any rate, the Bengals won’t be able to run successfully with Jeremy Hill versus the Ravens’ stalwart front, so aside from when Hill is catching passes out of the backfield, Dalton will have to do everything on his own again. That spells trouble, especially with Cincinnati having two liabilities on the offensive line (right tackle is also a major problem area). I expect the Ravens to exploit those.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Green and Eifert are definitely out, but Vontaze Burfict could be a different story. The stud linebacker was sidelined Sunday night, which was an enormous loss because his improved play once he rounded into shape was the primary catalyst for the Bengals being better defensively in the second half of the year. Burfict is still recovering from a concussion, but it seems like there’s a decent chance he’ll be able to suit up. If he does, Kenneth Dixon will have a very difficult time running the ball, but I’d like Dixon a bit if Burfict were to miss another game.

The Ravens have greater problems to worry about than Burfict, however. Right tackle Ricky Wagner will be out, meaning Baltimore will be using a reserve lineman to lock Carlos Dunlap, who has enjoyed a terrible 2016 campaign. With Geno Atkins set to abuse Vlad Ducasse, the Ravens will have to somehow maintain consistent drives with two major liabilities on the offensive line.

I still expect Baltimore to move the chains on occasion, as Joe Flacco has a tendency to get very hot at times. Steve Smith is also playing well, and I have to believe that he’ll have a strong performance in what could be his final game as a pro.

RECAP: I’m not clear on why the Bengals are favored. I expected the Ravens to be laying 2.5; not the other way around! I could see this spread being Cincinnati -2.5 if both Green and Eifert were playing, and if there weren’t any concussion questions with Burfict. But the skeleton-crew Bengals lost to Tom Savage, so how are they going to beat a much better Baltimore team?

The only concern I have with the Ravens, aside from their offensive line issues, happens to be motivation. They would’ve taken control of their own destiny with a victory at Pittsburgh, but they lost and are now finished. They’re still a very good team though – the best one not to be in the playoffs, per my NFL Power Rankings – and perhaps Smith’s final games will help them get motivated for this contest.

I’m going to make this a two-unit pick. I’d have more confidence in the Ravens if Wagner were playing, but I still think they’ll be able to beat a Cincinnati squad missing some big-time talent.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m going to take the one unit I moved off the Jets-Bills game and place it on this contest. Steve Smith made it official that it’s his last game in a tearful press conference, and I have to believe that his teammates will make sure that he rides off into the sunset with a victory.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Ravens are now favored, but I’d like them for three units at anything less than -3. This is Steve Smith’s last game, and Vontaze Burfict will be out, meaning Cincinnati’s defense won’t be nearly as good as it has been over the second half of the season.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public has been moving this line all week, but the sharps finally took the Bengals at +2. I still like Baltimore quite a bit, however.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

A substantial lean on the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 76% (10,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

History: Bengals have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Bengals are 19-11 ATS at home since 2013.

Opening Line: Bengals -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Ravens 22, Bengals 17
Ravens -1 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bengals 27, Ravens 10

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12) at Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
Line: Colts by 5.5. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Colts -7.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Colts -7.
Sunday, Jan 1, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Colts.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a brand new weekly fantasy football contest. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest – the Week 15 contest has already been posted, so good luck!

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I have to believe that most Jaguar fans never would’ve believed that both Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson would try hard in the same game. Bortles took time out of his busy partying schedule to focus on the Titans last week, while Robinson stopped being a lethargic bum for once. The results were tremendous, as Jacksonville demolished Tennessee. The Jaguar truthers finally had their day, as the team they’ve senselessly been backing the past two years finally came through with a big win.

Can Bortles and Robinson put 100-percent effort into a second-consecutive game? It’s possible, but I have my doubts. Bortles doesn’t take to good coaching, as he’s unwilling to improve the mental aspect of his game. However, he has a very easy matchup, as the Colts are missing emerging safety Clayton Geathers. More troubling is Vontae Davis’ declining play, thanks to a lingering injury. Robinson shouldn’t have any sort of problem getting open against Davis. Bortles will have plenty of time to find him, thanks to Indianapolis’ lacking pass rush.

The Jaguars figure to move the chains well on the ground. Chris Ivory had a solid performance against the lethargic Titans last week. The Colts figure to put more effort than Tennessee did into this game, but we saw how much they were bullied around in Oakland. The Raiders opened up huge lanes for their middling running backs. Granted, the Jaguars don’t have the same sort of offensive line Oakland does, but it’s not like the Colts have clamped down on rushing attacks this year, or anything.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: It was disappointing to see Andrew Luck struggle against the Raiders. Luck is so vital to the Colts’ success, that him being off pretty much means that Indianapolis can’t prevail. Luck forced two poor interceptions at Oakland, and then he missed an open target on a third down to potentially cover the spread. I feel like Luck would’ve played better than that in most permutations, though the Oakland pass rush did rattle him.

Luck doesn’t have the easiest matchup in this affair, as the Jaguars’ back seven has performed on a very high level in the second half of the year. Jalen Ramsey figures to do a number on T.Y. Hilton, while the two tight ends will have trouble against the stellar linebackers and stud safety John Cyprien. Luck, however, won’t have to deal with a great pass rush, as the Jaguars struggle to get to the quarterback. Besides, Luck is too good to be restricted for the entire afternoon, so he’ll be able to engineer some scoring drives.

I wouldn’t anticipate Frank Gore doing much on the ground. The Jaguars just clamped down on the Tennessee running game, so they’ll be able to handle Gore. Malik Jackson is a primary reason why Jacksonville has been so great versus the rush. How much do the Broncos miss him?

RECAP: I kind of liked the Jaguars a bit when this spread was +7, and I even thought about taking them for a unit or two. However, the sharps bet this down to +4.5, which is almost out of Bortles back-door territory. Sure, a late score of his could draw the margin to within three or four, but it’s definitely less likely now that the Jaguars will get their usual back-door touchdown.

With that in mind, I’m taking the Colts. In addition to this suddenly favorable line, I think it’s definitely possible that Bortles and Robinson could revert to their normal lethargy. They played hard for their new coach last week, and while that could happen again, they’ve been dogging it in far too many games this season to put forth two great efforts in a row.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is right in the middle of where I wanted it to be, as the Jaguars would’ve been a play at +7, and the Colts would be one as well at -3. This is a 50-50 game for me as it stands.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps took the Jaguars at +7 and +6, but have stopped doing so. This spread is probably around where it should be, so I don’t really see any sort of edge.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line has moved to -5.5 because of public movement, but there’s no real difference between -4.5 and -5.5. This is still a non-play for me.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

A strong lean on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 74% (6,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: 19 of the last 29 meetings decided by 8 points or fewer (Colts 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS last 8).

Andrew Luck is 20-5 ATS off a loss.

Andrew Luck is 24-11 ATS at home.

Andrew Luck is 16-6 ATS against divisional opponents.

Opening Line: Colts -7.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Colts 26, Jaguars 20
Colts -5.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Colts 24, Jaguars 20

Dallas Cowboys (13-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-9)
Line: Eagles by 6. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Eagles -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -3.
Sunday, Jan 1, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: TBA.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a brand new weekly fantasy football contest. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest – the Week 7 contest has already been posted, so good luck!

HATE MAIL: Loads of hate mail to get to this week, so let’s not waste any time:

This guy used to call me a fat pig, but I protested, saying that “fat hog” was the PC term, so I’m glad he was kind enough to oblige. What a great guy!

Here’s more:

I’m not lying in my response to “Walter Football is Trash.” My dad actually said this, as noted above.

Even more:

I don’t understand this obsession with favorites versus underdogs. Underdogs were 8-7 against the spread in Week 16, and they have a 51-percent covering rate all time. Vegas tends to inflate the spread toward the favorite in most cases because the public likes betting them. Thus, there is often value in underdogs, and betting is all about finding good value.

A hate mail segment would not be complete with a little Ross Avila:

Not sure why Ross Avila is so obsessed with me, but Facebook friend Mark V. and I had some fun at his expense:

DALLAS OFFENSE: Something is definitely up, as the Cowboys wouldn’t be four-point underdogs in Philadelphia under normal circumstances. There hasn’t been any indication that Dallas will sit Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and its other stars, but perhaps the oddsmakers know something the rest of us don’t. It could be that the Tyron Smith scare may have changed Jerry Jones’ mind.

The thing is, Jones has already said that playing Romo in Week 17 is “not worth the risk.” So, will Mark Sanchez be the quarterback if Prescott isn’t under center? If so, the Cowboys obviously won’t be scoring very much. In addition to Sanchez being utterly horrible, the Eagles will be out for blood to beat their former signal-caller.

If, however, Prescott and Elliott are on the field, they’ll definitely have an easy time with the Eagles’ defense, which has major problems in the secondary. Prescott will engineer tons of scoring drives. This is assuming he plays, but we have no idea if that’ll be the case.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles were so much better on this side of the ball last Thursday, thanks to Lane Johnson’s return. The Eagles are 4-1 with Johnson, and they’d be 5-0 if it weren’t for a Ryan Mathews fumble at the end of the Detroit game.

The Eagles block extremely well with Johnson, so they shouldn’t have much of a problem with Dallas’ front. Defensive tackle David Irving is performing on a very high level, but right guard Brandon Brooks should be able to handle him. Carson Wentz, as a result, will have plenty of time in the pocket to connect with his receivers downfield. The concern is whether his wideouts will actually be able to catch the ball.

I’m definitely more confident in Philadelphia’s ability to run the ball with Darren Sproles. We just saw the Lions gash the Cowboys with Zach Zenner. I have no idea why they moved away from that strategy in the second half, but we’ve seen Doug Pederson stick with the rush in some games this year, and I have to believe he’ll have Sproles run right behind Johnson quite often.

RECAP: I have to say that I’m completely taken aback by this spread. Given Dallas’ insistence on playing its starters, I figured the Cowboys would be three-point road favorites. I already planned on betting the underrated Eagles at that number for two or three units.

That’s definitely not the case anymore. I can’t believe Philadelphia is a four-point favorite. The number makes sense if the Cowboys rest all of their primary players, but we don’t know if that’s going to happen. And if Prescott sits, will it be Romo or Sanchez?

There are too many unknowns right now. I’m going to pick the Cowboys, but as more information becomes available, I may decide to change my pick. Check back, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There still isn’t any news on the Cowboys playing their starters or not. We’ll see. I still may change my pick, but I don’t feel strongly about either side.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m changing my pick, as the Cowboys have announced that Mark Sanchez will play in this game. Dallas won’t be focused at all, while the Eagles want to end their season on a high note.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have shot this line up to -6.5 in most books, though the Eagles can still be obtained at -6 -115 at Bovada. I actually took the Eagles in the Supercontest at -4, but -6 is obviously much less appealing, even though Mark Sanchez will play about a half.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.
The Cowboys are naturally a public underdog.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 61% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

History: Road Team has won 10 of the last 13 meetings.

Cowboys are 32-20 ATS as an underdog since 2009.

The underdog is 70-40 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Jason Garrett is 0-4 ATS after Monday Night Football.

Eagles are 22-35 ATS at home since 2010.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Eagles 21, Cowboys 14
Eagles -6 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 27, Cowboys 13

Chicago Bears (3-12) at Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
Line: Vikings by 6.5. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Vikings -5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -3.5.
Sunday, Jan 1, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

I have to share how terribly upset I am that Chris Berman is retiring. Berman and Tom Jackson were a major reason why I got into football in the first place. I eagerly awaited NFL Primetime to air each Sunday night, and I actually taped all of the episodes from 2002 to 2005. I still have the VHS tapes on my office bookshelf.

It’s upsetting that we won’t ever get an episode of NFL Primetime ever again, so for those of you who are too young to recall how amazing this show was, here’s a clip from Week 10, 2002:

I chose this particular week for numerous reasons. First, it was just an ordinary week in the middle of the season that Berman and Jackson were able to bring to full life with their great enthusiasm, backed, of course, by the killer music that NFL Primetime used to complement its highlights with.

Second, I feel like all of these games were special…

1. The first highlight was that of the Falcons and Steelers in what Berman called “the greatest tie ever.”

2. The second properly displayed how horrible the Bengals were before Marvin Lewis. It reminded me of how bad they were prior to the Lewis hiring, so if you think he should be let go, just watch this.

3. The Texans are an expansion team here, and they’re battling the late Steve McNair, who was going to help his team make a huge run at the end of the season despite playing hurt.

4. It’s Randy Moss! And Mike Tice benching Daunte Culpepper in favor of Todd Bouman! How great is that?

5. If that’s not good enough, Brett Favre passes Joe Montana on the passing list, while Joey Harrington does some cool tricks with the football. The Lions lost 40-14, but at least Harrington was able to roll the ball up his arm!!!

6. The Eagles-Colts game features my favorite NFL Primetime highlight song. They stopped playing this song after 2003, and I never understood why.

7. Steve Gleason blocks a punt! That was awesome. Plus, we had one of the worst beats of all time in what Berman referred to as the Grant’s Tomb game. The Panthers were +4.5 and lost the spread absolutely inexplicably. Guess which team I picked!?!?!

8. We had both Berman and Jackson singing the Wizard of Oz song to Marc Bulger because the guy who played the scarecrow in that movie was Ray Bulger. I don’t know if some people would think this was corny or not, but I loved it. Jackson helping Berman sing at the end nearly brought a tear to my eye.

That’s it for the video – and that’s only half the week! We haven’t had this show on the air for a decade because the goons at NBC stole the Sunday night broadcasting rights when they paid the NFL billions for Sunday Night Football. However, Berman and Jackson have both been around, until this year when Jackson left. Now, Berman will be gone as well, so an era in football is over, as far as I’m concerned.

Boomer and T.J., I’m going to miss you guys. But I’ll never forget you both.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I can’t believe the Minnesota defensive backs mutinied against Mike Zimmer. If you missed it, Zimmer asked Xavier Rhodes to cover Jordy Nelson exclusively, but Terence Newman forced Rhodes’ hand, asking to cover Nelson instead. Nelson predictably torched Newman in Green Bay’s blowout victory. Zimmer is one of the better coaches in the NFL, so I was utterly shocked that such a decorated veteran would go against his wishes.

I have to believe that the Viking defensive backs will listen to Zimmer this time after being humbled. If so, Rhodes will cover Alshon Jeffery, forcing Matt Barkley to throw elsewhere. Barkley had been playing well prior to this past Saturday, but he imploded with five interceptions, four of which were his fault. It’s hard to trust him at this point, especially with Minnesota’s defense bound to perform on a higher level this week.

That said, I think the Bears will be able to move the ball with Jordan Howard. The Vikings have struggled mightily against the run all year because of Sharrif Floyd’s absence. Howard has been great since taking over for Jeremy Langford, so he’ll be able to set up Barkley with favorable down-and-distance situations, which should be able to limit his turnovers.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: I mentioned that I was shocked that the Vikings were so willing to mutiny against Zimmer. Something equally surprising to me was the decline of Chicago’s defense. The Bears have been a covering machine ever since they lost to the Buccaneers in mid-November, thanks in part to the high level of play from their stop unit. They were even getting stud linebacker Jerrell Freeman back from injury, so I couldn’t believe that the Redskins did basically whatever they wanted to against them.

I’m expecting a better effort from the Bears, especially against Minnesota’s poor offense. I like the Bears’ edge rushers, Willie Young and Pernell McPhee, against the horrible Viking tackles. Of course, every team has an advantage against those two players, but Sam Bradford won’t be able to rely on Kyle Rudolph and Adam Thielen as much this week because of poor matchups. The Bears cover tight ends well with Freeman patrolling the middle of the field, while Chicago’s best corner, Bryce Callahan, will be able to smother Thielen.

Adrian Peterson could return this week following Saturday’s hiatus, but it’ll be difficult for him to find running room. He’ll convert third-and-shorts better than Matt Asiata, but that’s the only perk of having him on the field again. He’s not 100 percent, and he’s not getting any sort of quality blocking.

RECAP: I was hoping to get +6.5 or +6 with the Bears, but the sharps made sure that wouldn’t be possible. The pros bet those numbers down hours upon the spread’s release, and now the line is just +5.5. I still think this number is a couple of points too high though, so I’m going to wager two units on the Bears.

Ignoring last week for a second, the last time Chicago failed to cover the spread was Week 10. Prior to this past Saturday, the Bears had been a great team to bet on because they had been playing great defense and keeping most of their games close. I think they’ll do that here against a Minnesota squad that doesn’t score very much. Plus, the Vikings could be distracted by the mutiny.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has jumped back up +6.5. I’m still going to keep two units on the Bears, but if this spread rises to +7, I’ll perhaps place a third unit on Chicago.

SATURDAY NOTES: I still stand by what I said Thursday. If this gets to +7, I’ll put a third unit on the Bears. I may do that anyway if Pernell McPhee (questionable) suits up.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bears are missing McPhee, and this line never hit +7, so I’m staying on two units. Sharp money on Chicago prevented this line from moving up.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
The sharps are betting the Bears.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 62% (7,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Home Team has won 23 of the last 27 meetings (Vikings won 3 of the last 4 meetings).

Bears are 16-33 ATS in December road games the previous 49 instances.

Mike Zimmer is 31-16 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Opening Line: Vikings -6.5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Vikings 19, Bears 16
Bears +6.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Vikings 38, Bears 10

Carolina Panthers (6-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
Line: Buccaneers by 3. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Buccaneers -3.
Sunday, Jan 1, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. I think some announcers need to calm about the bowl games they’re broadcasting. They’re discussing matchups between South Tennessee State versus East Dakota University in the Ultra-Pro Deck Box Bowl, and they make it sound like it’s the most important thing of all time. Here’s an example from one of the doofuses on the New Mexico Bowl telecast:

“We can’t stress the importance of this game!”

Oh yeah, I’m sure… since, you know, the only people watching this hot mess are degenerate gamblers like me.

Also, the NCAA needs to put forth some effort into its bowl names. Take the Cure Bowl, for example. How lame is that? Everyone knows Cure sucks. Cura isn’t even good enough. Now, if this were named the Curaga Bowl, now that would definitely hold some importance.

2. Draft Season is quickly approaching, and we’ve already begun posting NFL Draft Scouting Reports. Little did I know that someone would write a scouting report on me recently.

It all started when I posted the following picture on Facebook, citing that I might just be the worst Christmas present wrapper of all time:

Facebook friend Stephen O. shared his scouting report of me and my gift-wrapping:

I definitely do anticipate the Jaguars selecting me pretty early, now that I think about it!

3. The following news report raised questions for me:

Florida CB J.C. Jackson was arrested for armed robbery. Jackson apparently turned himself in to authorities, but police are still looking for the two other men involved in the incident. One of the three pulled a firearm on the victim while others stole an Xbox and marijuana.

The one omission here is whether or not Jackson stole an Xbox One, an Xbox 360 or a regular Xbox. If it’s the One or the 360, I can see there being outrage. But if it’s an original Xbox, does anyone really care? It would be like someone stealing a VHS player. I think police would actually laugh at that rather than begin an investigation.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I was appalled by Carolina’s poor tackling efforts this past Saturday. The FOX announcers even made fun of them, referring to the Panthers’ attempts to tackle as “two-hand touch.” I thought they’d try much harder than that, especially in a revenge game. That was, until I realized that they were playing on just four days of rest following a win. The NFL, despite its infinite wisdom, had a scheduling blunder. I can’t believe that happened.

I expect the Panthers to try harder in this contest after being embarrassed. That said, they’ll still have trouble covering Mike Evans. Their secondary sucks, so they’ll have a difficult time dealing with such a dynamic wideout.

That said, the Panthers definitely have some matchup edges on this side of the ball, thanks in part to some Tampa injuries. Right tackle Demar Dotson has been out, so if he’s missing again, I like Mario Addison’s chances of putting heat on Jameis Winston. Kawann Short, meanwhile, will be able to disrupt Winston in the interior. Winston may not have Cameron Brate, who is dealing with a back injury, and he definitely won’t have Doug Martin, who will be a healthy scratch again. Martin’s absence won’t be a huge factor, but I don’t expect the Buccaneers to run well regardless.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Cam Newton once again failed to complete half of his passes last week, regressing from the solid performance he enjoyed Monday night. Playing the Tampa secondary could be exactly what the doctor ordered, however.

The Buccaneers’ defensive backfield improved for several weeks, but it has regressed the past couple of games. Coincidentally, that’s when Chris Conte returned. I know Conte isn’t a full-time player anymore, but he’s still a tremendous liability, as is Vernon Hargreaves. The Buccaneers also aren’t great against tight ends either. I’d like Newton’s chances of moving the chains consistently, but pass protection will be an issue again, especially with Gerald McCoy bound to create havoc in the interior.

The Panthers should be able to establish the run to keep the heat off Newton. I thought they’d be able to do so last week as well versus the soft Falcons, but Carolina was simply down big too early to do that. I don’t think that’ll happen again, so I like Jonathan Stewart’s outlook versus a defense has declined in its ability to stop the run.

RECAP: I’m shocked by how large this spread is, but the public apparently doesn’t agree with my opinion because there’s 50-50 action on this game. That’s fine with me because I love the Panthers once again.

Prior to the Atlanta game, Carolina had been playing well. The Panthers dominated the Chargers, and then they legitimately beat the Redskins on Monday Night Football. Thus, I was shocked by how horrible they were versus the Falcons until I realized the scheduling issues.

Given the embarrassment level of that blowout loss, I expect Carolina to rebound strongly. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers don’t seem like they’d handle the role of a favorite well. They’re more of an underdog-type team, which would explain why the last time they won by more than five points while being favored was against the Jaguars in Week 5, 2015. That’s the only time they’ve done this in the Jameis Winston era.

My line for this game is -3. The Buccaneers are a couple of points better than the Panthers, but because they have no home-field advantage, I believed that they should be field-goal favorites. Getting six or 6.5 points with the Panthers seems like a gift, especially when considering that the advance spread happened to be Buccaneers -6.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have bet this spread down to +5. I still love the Panthers, as the Buccaneers should be -3, especially with Cameron Brate out. Tampa could also be distracted by Doug Martin entering rehab.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread has continued to plummet, as the sharps have pounded the Panthers like crazy. We’re not getting the same sort of value at +3.5, so I’ll drop this to three units. I’ll bump this back up to four units if +4 reappears.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Wow, this line is now down to +3. So much for +4! Bovada is offering +3 -105, which is the best line for Carolina I could find right now. I obviously regret not locking this in.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 58% (4,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

History: Panthers have won 8 the last 11 meetings.

Road Team is 75-44 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Cam Newton is 19-15 ATS off a loss as long as he’s not favored by 7+.

Buccaneers are 19-41 ATS at home in the previous 60 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 23, Panthers 20
Panthers +3 -105 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Buccaneers 17, Panthers 16

Cleveland Browns (1-14) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)
Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -16.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -16.5.
Sunday, Jan 1, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: TBA.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Five years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for the 2013 season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses. In 2014, Donald Sterling answered spammers.

Last year, Tom Brady and his deflated footballs were involved. You can see those Spam Mails here with my responses to avoid clutter. I’ll have brand new spam mail responses every week!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I’m not going to spend much time talking about the Steelers because Landry Jones will be starting. The Steelers are resting their stars, so Jones will be under center, potentially along with DeAngelo Williams, though I don’t think it’s a guarantee that he plays either.

Jones is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, but he may even have success against Cleveland’s inept defense. The Browns are so bad on this side of the ball that they’ve allowed mediocre quarterbacks to look great this year, so perhaps a horrible one like Jones can turn out to be mediocre.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: There are questions about who’s going to start for the Browns as well. That’s because Robert Griffin is in concussion protocol. Griffin sitting would be a blessing in, well, not really a disguise because everyone knows it’s a blessing. Griffin is an injury-prone abomination who has no interest in studying film or improving the mental part of his game, which is a shame because he has an immense amount of talent.

The Browns need to see what they have in Cody Kessler anyway. Besides, Kessler’s presence will allow Terrelle Pryor to have a chance at reaching Charles Woodson’s projected 1,800-yard mark for him. Pryor needs only 887 receiving yards to hit 1,800 for the year. Sure, he’d have to more than double Flipper Anderson’s single-game record, but he’d have a better shot of getting there with Kessler at quarterback than Griffin.

In all seriousness, the Browns’ chances of moving the chains consistently depends on which Pittsburgh starters play. Cleveland’s offense has fallen off a cliff ever since its two guards went down with injuries, so the team wouldn’t be able to run the ball successfully versus the Steeler first-stringers. Doing so against the backups is obviously a different story.

RECAP: This is another game that happens to be unbettable. I’m not going to wager on Landry Jones covering 6.5 points. That just doesn’t seem smart. On the other hand, the Browns suck and just won their “Super Bowl.” Those aren’t my words. Joe Thomas said in an NFL Network interview that it was his team’s “Super Bowl.” There’s obviously going to be some sort of letdown.

I’m going to pick the Steelers because of Mike Tomlin’s great Week 17 success over the years (check the trends below). However, this is for office-pool purposes only, as I’m not spending my hard-earned money on Landry Jones.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Robert Griffin was announced as the starter, which makes me feel stronger about the Steelers, but not enough for me to lay six points with Landry Jones. I don’t understand why Griffin is getting the nod, and it’s a shame because now Terrelle Pryor definitely won’t get the 887 yards he needs to match Charles Woodson’s projection.

SATURDAY NOTES: I still don’t get why Griffin is starting, but I remain on the Steelers for no units. I’m not taking the Browns following their “Super Bowl” win, but I’m not laying points with Landry Jones either.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m tempted to put a unit on the Steelers at -3 -120 (BetUS). Pittsburgh’s starters obviously won’t be playing, but the Browns likely will be flat. But as soon as I think about doing this, I remember how much Landry Jones sucks. I’ll pass.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Steelers may sit their starters, but the Browns just won their Super Bowl.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Three-quarters of the action on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 76% (10,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Steelers have won 29 of the last 33 meetings.

Steelers are 33-15 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Steelers are 7-2 ATS in Week 17 under Mike Tomlin.

Opening Line: Steelers -12.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Browns 12
Steelers -3 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 27, Browns 24

New England Patriots (13-2) at Miami Dolphins (10-5)
Line: Patriots by 8. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -4.5.
Sunday, Jan 1, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: TBA.

Video of the Week: Anyone who has read this site for a while knows that I absolutely hate social justice warriors and think they should be thrown into a rocket headed for the sun. Thus, I was a big fan of this video:

Wow. I know this was acted, but I was kind of hoping that Greg Hardy was lurking around the corner.

MIAMI OFFENSE: I’m beginning with the Dolphins first because it’s unclear if their starters will play. Adam Gase has said that they’ll suit up, but will he keep his word? And even if so, how long will they be available?

The Dolphins don’t match up well with the Patriots, anyway. They want to run the ball with Jay Ajayi, but New England stuffs the rush pretty effectively, thanks to Alan Branch. This task will be even easier for them if Ajayi sits out, and it’s Damien Williams that they need to tackle.

With the running game doomed, Matt Moore will have to move the chains on his own if he happens to take the field. He’ll have to throw into the strength of New England’s defense, which happens to be the secondary. Malcolm Butler will shut down one of his receivers, so Moore, in a hypothetical world in which he has to play all 60 minutes, would have trouble consistently moving the sticks.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: It remains to be seen if the Dolphins will be sitting some of their defensive stars as well. I imagine Tom Brady would love a matchup in which he doesn’t have to worry about Ndamukong Suh, both as a pass-rusher and season-ender, thanks to his tendency to intentionally injure opposing quarterbacks.

Regardless, Brady figures to have a strong performance. Miami has some major problems in its back seven. Kiko Alonso and Byron Maxwell are both banged up, so Brady will be able to exploit these matchups quite easily.

Brady can also hand the ball off to his dynamic running backs and expect great results. The Dolphins have struggled versus the rush for the most part this year, and Dion Lewis has been very effective since taking over as the primary runner.

RECAP: The question was asked on Twitter: When is the last time a 10-win team was a double-digit home underdog? The answer was back in 2007, when the Giants took on the 15-0 Patriots. New York lost, but covered, and it would eventually beat New England in a Super Bowl rematch.

These Dolphins are not those Giants, but this spread still seems outrageous. This line, transferred over to New England, would be -15 or so, which is crazy, considering the Patriots were -17 over the Bryce Petty-led Jets.

However, there’s a reason this line is so high, and it’s because the Dolphins don’t need to win this game, so they may rest their starters. They can move to the No. 5 seed with a win, but they’d also need the Chiefs to lose to the Chargers, which doesn’t seem very likely. Thus, Gase may opt to hold his starters out for the second half, or something, making this game unbettable as far as I’m concerned.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a lot of sharp money coming in on the Dolphins, which doesn’t really surprise me. I’m not betting this game at the moment, but if you want to follow the pros, Dolphins +10 -115 is available at Bovada.

SATURDAY NOTES: I still haven’t seen a report on what the Dolphins plan to do. Sure, they can get to the No. 5 seed, but they need the Chargers to beat the Chiefs. What if they go all out, and one of their key players suffers an injury? I don’t know. I wish we’d know; otherwise, I’d like the value we were getting with the Dolphins.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have dropped this line all the way to +8, which is more reasonable. It would still be high if the Dolphins’ starters would definitely be playing the entire afternoon, but I still don’t trust that to happen.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Miami: 52% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 13 of the last 19 meetings (Home Team has won 9 of the last 10 meetings).

Patriots are 48-37 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Patriots are 11-3 ATS in Week 17 since 2001.

Tom Brady is 204-65 as a starter (149-107 ATS).

Tom Brady is 5-8 ATS at Miami.

Underdog is 75-42 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 117 games.

Opening Line: Patriots -6.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Patriots 26, Dolphins 17
Dolphins +8 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 35, Dolphins 14

Week 17 NFL Picks – Late Games
Seattle at San Francisco, Arizona at Los Angeles, Kansas City at San Diego, Oakland at Denver

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 17 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)