NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2016

NFL Picks (Preseason 2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 12, 5:10 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games

Carolina Panthers (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0)
Line: Panthers by 3. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Broncos -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Thursday, Sept 8, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Broncos.

Football is back, and I’m going to be completely honest in saying this: I haven’t been this excited for a season in a very long time.

As most of you know, I’ve been in a picking funk this decade. I didn’t endure a losing season from 2003 to 2010, but I’ve been in the red in four of the past five years. The first half of last season was especially brutal, as I was down $6,000 at some point. This occurred on Thanksgiving weekend, which is when I did some inner soul searching and realized that I had to stop being stubborn and change what I was doing.

The result was the hottest 8-week stretch I’ve ever enjoyed. In those eight weeks, I finished in the black every time, resulting in a gain of more than $4,000. I was confident that if I had two more weeks, I could’ve finished in the black entirely!

So, what changed? For the most part, I stopped looking at trends. Those killed me. I fell in love with trends in 2010, and they worked for a year, but they absolutely buried me in the long run. They just made so much sense to me, but I’ve come to realize that they are mostly meaningless. I think it’s still important to look at teams going into a London game or a Thursday night contest, but they are largely irrelevant, and I won’t be relying on them anymore. Instead, I’ll be doing what I once did: actually handicapping the games.

If this were it, I’d be very excited for the season, but it’s not. I also made sure to re-watch the entire 2015 season this summer. Let me tell you, I learned a lot. I’d look at the spreads prior to each week, and after picking up on stuff, it seemed so easy to identify bad point spreads. I’ll give you an example:

The Buccaneers last season averaged more yards per play than their opponent in 13 of 16 games. This matched up with what I saw on tape. They played very well for the most part, but were extremely unlucky. Touchdowns were dropped, crucial field goals were missed, all of the fumbles went to the other team, etc. The Buccaneers finished 6-10, but easily could’ve been 10-6 had luck gone their way. Yet, despite this, Tampa was touchdown underdogs in several contests in the middle of the year versus bad or mediocre teams like the Falcons and the Mark Sanchez-led Eagles. Had I actually been handicapping and paying attention, I would’ve noticed this and made the Buccaneers big plays. They won outright in both contests.

Here’s another example: The Bears are often criticized because of Jay Cutler’s attitude. Yet, they gave the Packers a tough game in Week 1 and were even with the Cardinals the following Sunday until Cutler sustained an injury. Cutler was something like 9-of-10 prior to getting hurt. Jimmy Clausen came in and stunk it up, and Chicago was shut out the following game at Seattle, as Clausen couldn’t do anything versus the Seahawks’ defense. Cutler was due back in Week 4, and despite the Bears playing well with Cutler under center, they were home dogs to the Raiders. Chicago, of course, won straight up.

I can give you dozens of other examples where Vegas sets a bad spread because the public either isn’t paying attention or is listening to the dumb ESPN narrative. Realizing this and now knowing what to look for, I feel more prepared for this season than ever before.

Even better, you’ll have plenty of chances to win money regardless of how I do. Our WalterFootball.com NFL Survivor Pool is back! It’s free entry, and the winner gets $350. We’re also going to have two other contests, and you will not be disappointed – I promise!

I’ll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day, and every Tuesday this season. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s been seven months, yet the public still hasn’t learned anything. Every casual football fan expects the Panthers to prevail in this game for a multitude of reasons, hence the 80 or so percent of action on the visitor. Yet, the same problems persist from the Super Bowl. Carolina’s offense couldn’t generate anything consistent because of the major mismatch the Broncos had on this side of the ball.

I was shocked that the Panthers didn’t upgrade their tackle situation. They have one of the worst pair of tackles in the NFL, as both Michael Oher and Mike Remmers were exposed in the Super Bowl. They were one of the reasons I picked the Broncos; they hadn’t been tested all year, as Carolina inexplicably avoided all of the top pass rushes. Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware made them look silly, yet, remarkably, the Panthers extended Oher. It’s like they didn’t even watch the Super Bowl!

Miller and Ware will create havoc for Cam Newton once again in the backfield. Newton will struggle as a result. Sure, he’ll have Kelvin Benjamin and an improved Devin Funchess at his disposal, but A) The Broncos have an excellent secondary capable of shutting them down, and B) It won’t matter if Newton doesn’t have any time in the pocket to locate them downfield.

DENVER OFFENSE: The other primary reason everyone is betting on the Panthers is because of Trevor Siemian. Most bettors have never heard of him. They wouldn’t know him if he walked into their house wearing a shirt that said “Hello, I’m Trevor Siemian, please don’t bet against me.” In a matchup between Newton and Siemian, how do you not wager on the league’s reigning MVP?

Well, here’s the thing: Peyton Manning was quarterbacking the Broncos last year, and he was absolutely atrocious. He was the worst quarterback to ever win the Super Bowl (in his state), and statistically, Mark Sanchez was better than Manning in 2015. Sad, but true. I bring up Sanchez because Siemian beat him out in training camp and preseason competition. If a decrepit Manning was able to beat the Panthers, why can’t Siemian, who happens to be a slight upgrade?

The Panthers have a great defense, of course, but it won’t be as strong this year. Josh Norman isn’t around, which is going to have a huge impact. Norman shut down Demaryius Thomas in the Super Bowl. Now, Carolina doesn’t have anyone to cover Thomas (or Emmanuel Sanders), which will obviously help Siemian.

RECAP: I wagered two units on the Broncos in the Super Bowl, and I feel a bit more confident about the rematch, thanks to the Broncos being at home and the Panthers losing Norman. I’m betting three units on Denver.

As with the Super Bowl spread, this line doesn’t make much sense. If this game were at Carolina, the Panthers would be -9, which is almost as much as the Seahawks are favored over the Dolphins by, which is just ridiculous. The Broncos have an amazing defense that matches up extremely well with Carolina. I think they should be favored, if anything, though my projected line is pick.

I also have to think that Denver has to be extremely offended that it’s an underdog despite being Super Bowl champions. With motivation and mismatches on their side, the Broncos definitely seem like the right side.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m shocked that the sharps haven’t bet the Broncos. This line just seems way off, but I guess they disagree. They haven’t wagered on the Panthers, however. All of the money coming in on Carolina is via the public. I’m sticking with three units on Denver, as this spread is about three points off. Better yet, Broncos +3 +105 is available on Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.

The Broncos are undoubtedly offended that they are underdogs despite being Super Bowl champions.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Everyone’s betting on the Panthers as if it’s easy money.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 76% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Super Bowl Loser Syndrome: Super Bowl losers are 5-17 ATS in their first game the following season.

Opening Line: Broncos -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Broncos 20, Panthers 17
Broncos +3 +105 (3 Units) — Correct; +$315
Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 21, Panthers 20 – NFL Game Recaps

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
Line: Falcons by 2.5. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Falcons -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Sept 11, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.

I posted betting trends and such in this slot over the past couple of years, but I won’t be doing that as much because I’ll be moving away from trends. Instead, I’ll list some underrated observations that the media either isn’t discussing or is misinforming the public about. I think I’ll do this in conjunction with overrated and underrated teams, which I should definitely put more effort into…

Underrated NFL Teams:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers outgained 13 of their 16 opponents last year in terms of yards per play, an important metric. This includes the Week 1 blowout versus Tennessee, so Tampa remarkably outplayed its opponents in that regard in 13 of the final 15 contests. As mentioned in the prior capsule, they had lots of horrible luck. Mike Evans led the NFL in drops, but now seems more focused. Important kicks were missed. Most of the fumbles went to the opponent. In fact, I can’t help but recall one play in the first matchup against Carolina. It was a tight, one-score affair before Jonathan Stewart fumbled in his own territory. The ball somehow popped into the air and landed in Ed Dickson’s lap. Dickson ran past all of the bewildered Buccaneers to score a 75-yard touchdown, putting the game out of reach. The Buccaneers, otherwise, had a chance to pull the upset.

Chicago Bears: The Bears were very competitive with Jay Cutler last year. They either beat or matched their opponents in terms of yards per play in seven of the 14 full contests Cutler played in. Like the Buccaneers, they also had some bad luck. For instance, Jeremy Langford, playing for an injured Matt Forte, dropped a pass versus Minnesota that would’ve won the game. The Bears were screwed out of a victory at Detroit because of some horrid officiating. They lost a lot of other coin-flip games and consequently could’ve been 10-6 as a result instead of 6-10. Now, everyone is trashing the Bears because they’re the Bears. Everyone is ignoring that Chicago has a solid defense and several intriguing play-makers on offense. Cutler without Adam Gase is a concern, as is the offensive line, but I don’t think Chicago is one of the worst teams in the NFL. Not even close.

Baltimore Ravens: No team, save for perhaps the Chargers, was more injury-ravaged than the Ravens in 2015. I was only semi-joking when I said that the players they had on injured reserve last year could beat the ones still on the field in a scrimmage last year. Despite this, Baltimore was in almost every single game. The Ravens had lost only two games by more than eight points, and those were contests that Jimmy Clausen started. Ryan Mallett even led them to a victory over Pittsburgh in Week 16! If the Ravens stay healthy, they’re a candidate to bounce back and make a return to the playoffs.

Overrated NFL Teams:

Atlanta Falcons: Hey, the Falcons went 8-8 last year, they’re close to making the playoffs! I feel like this is the narrative here, but it couldn’t be further from the truth. What’s actually factual is that the Falcons were incredibly lucky to win some of their early games. Did you know that despite beating the Eagles, Giants and Cowboys to open the year, they were outgained in terms of yards per play in each contest? Philadelphia missed a late field goal; New York self-destructed per usual; and Dallas blew a massive lead. The Falcons also barely beat the Redskins before they caught fire, and the Titans, led by Zach Mettenberger, who is almost out of the league at this point. I don’t see what has changed this offseason to help the Falcons. To me, they’re a 4-12 or 5-11 team.

New Orleans Saints: Speaking of overrated NFC South teams, the Saints might be in for a 4-12 record themselves. I just don’t see what redeeming qualities this team has. That includes Drew Brees, who is now 37 and doesn’t appear to be the same player he once was. Brees’ effectiveness could be called into question anyway, given how bad the offensive line is. It’s been a train wreck this preseason, thanks in part to left tackle Terron Armstead dealing with an injury. Armstead couldn’t block a plastic bag blowing around in the wind right now, and Brees’ 2016 campaign will be derailed as a result. The defense, meanwhile, continues to be an abomination, especially with Sheldon Rankins out with an injury.

Indianapolis Colts: I was stupid enough to pick the Colts to reach the Super Bowl back in July, but I’ve since changed my mind entirely. I liked them to bounce back with a healthy Andrew Luck, but not anymore. Vontae Davis’ absence is a huge part of that. Davis was the best player on the Colts’ defense, and he’ll be out for a while. Even when he returns, he may not be 100 percent, due to ligament damage in his knee. Meanwhile, the offensive line has been horrible this preseason, and it’ll only get worse with Jack Mewhort being hurt. Luck will still win some games on his own, but that’ll be more difficult than it’s been in the past, given that the AFC South has improved in large part.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Cris Collinsworth harped about Atlanta’s offense having problems in the red zone last year during one of the preseason telecasts, but what he neglected to mention was that this has been a recurring problem ever since Tony Gonzalez left the team. The Falcons have been brutal deep in enemy territory for a long time, and nothing has really changed to affect that. Mohamed Sanu was added, but he’s incapable of getting open, which is not good.

The one positive addition the Falcons did make this offseason was signing Alex Mack, but the interior line play still doesn’t seem like it will be very good. Neither Andy Levitre nor Chris Chester can pass protect very well, which doesn’t bode well for Matt Ryan, given that he’ll be battling Gerald McCoy. The Buccaneers definitely have a mismatch in that regard. Ryan will still get some big plays by connecting with the unstoppable Julio Jones, but Atlanta’s aerial attack figures to be inconsistent.

The Falcons will try to establish the run, and Levitre and Chester will have more success in that regard. However, I can’t help but remember how utterly ineffective Devonta Freeman was down the stretch last year, failing to gain more than 3.4 yards per carry in six of his final seven games, with the lone outlier being against the Colts, where he rushed the ball just three times. That doesn’t sound too intimidating.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: As bad as the Falcons’ offense has been in the red zone, they’ve had more dire problems on this side of the ball. They weren’t able to generate any sort of pass rush last year, finishing with a league-worst 19 sacks. Vic Beasley should be better in his second season, but Atlanta neglected to find help across from him, which was a big mistake.

Jameis Winston figures to enjoy a clean pocket, meaning he’ll be difficult to contain. Mike Evans led the league in drops last season, but he seems way more focused than he was in 2015, so he’s bound to have a huge year. The Falcons have an excellent cornerback in Desmond Trufant, but nothing at safety, especially in the wake of Keanu Neal’s injury. Both Evans and Vincent Jackson will have their way with Atlanta’s defense.

Meanwhile, I like Doug Martin to enjoy a good performance as well. The Falcons were mediocre in terms of stopping the rush in 2015, and I don’t see why that would change. They’ve added some speedy linebackers through the draft in Deion Jones and De’Vondre Campbell, but they’re just rookies and I can’t see them having a huge impact right away.

RECAP: I’d look pretty foolish if I spent time talking up the Buccaneers and then neglected to bet on them. I won’t be foolish in this instance, as I plan on wagering on Tampa rather heavily.

I find this spread to be absurd. It says that the Falcons and Buccaneers are even, which couldn’t be further from the truth. In fact, they’re more than 10 spots apart in my NFL Power Rankings. No one is aware of how good Tampa is yet, while Atlanta continues to be overrated because it has Ryan and Julio Jones… but not much else. People care about star power, neglecting to focus on substance, which would explain this ridiculous spread.

Let’s take advantage of the public’s misconception toward these teams. I love the Buccaneers this year and plan on betting them frequently until the market adjusts correctly. This is going to be a four-unit pick.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I ran Wednesday Thoughts last year when I started making my picks on Tuesday, but I thought I’d move it to Thursday because there wasn’t much that changed in 24 hours. Besides, you can never go wrong with awesome alliteration! See what I did there? Pretty cool, eh? OK, not really. At any rate, I like the Buccaneers and there is a TON of professional money coming in on them. That’s why the line has moved off +3 -110. It’s still +3 -125 at Bovada (or, if you’re in Vegas, +3 -120 at the Westgate), which I would strongly consider. That may disappear soon.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m going to call my Sunday notes “final thoughts” this year, since that makes more sense. Anyway, the Buccaneers are now +2.5, thanks to all of the professional money on them. I still love them at +2.5, as they’re the better team and probably should be favored.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m surprised this hasn’t continued to drop. If you want -3, you can have it for -125 at Bovada. That’s a bit rich for me. I think Tampa wins straight up.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 59% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Falcons have won 10 the last 15 meetings.

Opening Line: Falcons -3.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 24, Falcons 20
Buccaneers +3 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Buccaneers 31, Falcons 24

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0)
Line: Vikings by 2.5. Total: 40.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Vikings -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -3.
Sunday, Sept 11, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Vikings.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot in coming weeks. As for this week, here are the six highest-bet sides, as of Tuesday morning:

Panthers -3

Packers -4.5

Bengals -2.5

Rams -2.5

Steelers -3

Giants PK

These sorts of teams were 47-45-3 last year, which is surprising, to say the least. Perhaps things will be different in 2016.

Naturally, five of these teams are road favorites, with the sixth effectively being one as well, as the Giants are expected to win in Dallas.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings received some truly horrible news last week when Teddy Bridgewater tore his ACL and dislocated his knee, sustaining other structural damage in the process. It was a shame, as Bridgewater seemed like a genuinely nice guy with a bright future ahead of him. Sure, his numbers weren’t great, but he was masterful in terms of managing the offense and converting third downs. Now, he may not be able to play until 2018, which sucks.

The Vikings traded for Sam Bradford, overpaying out of necessity. However, it sounds as though Shaun Hill will start this contest. Hill is obviously a downgrade, but in terms of a backup quarterback, he’s pretty solid. He can be an effective game-manager, especially when playing against bad defenses. And Tennessee sure as hell has a bad defense!

The one thing the Titans do well on this side of the ball is get to the quarterback with Brian Orakpo, Derrick Morgan and Jurrell Casey. It’s a one-trick stop unit, however, as the secondary has some glaring weaknesses, while the run defense figures to be only average. Adrian Peterson will be able to rip right through the Tennessee front, while Stefon Diggs won’t have much resistance from the defensive backs. It won’t be pretty, but the Vikings should be able to do enough to put themselves in position to win.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Of course, the Vikings will be leaning on their defense, which could be the best stop unit in the NFL. They’re great in every regard, including the trenches, where they figure to have the edge in this matchup. The Titans made some changes to their offensive line this offseason, but center Ben Jones isn’t very good, while right tackle Jack Conklin is just a rookie. Taylor Lewan is great, but I don’t think the blockers will be able to handle Minnesota’s ferocious front.

As a result, DeMarco Murray will have problems finding running lanes, which is an issue because Mike Mularkey’s offense is predicated on his patented exotic smashmouth scheme. I like Murray to bounce back this year because he’s currently playing for a coach who actually knows how to take advantage of his skill set, but running into Sharrif Floyd and Linval Joseph will prove to be extremely difficult.

I don’t expect Marcus Mariota to have much time in the pocket either. This was an issue last year, and Mariota will feel like a rookie again versus Minnesota’s stalwart defense. Unfortunately for us Tajae Sharpe owners, Mariota won’t have enough time to locate his promising rookie receiver consistently this week.

RECAP: I was going to slot the Vikings at No. 2 in my NFL Power Rankings prior to the Bridgewater injury. I still think they’re easily a top-10 team, however. They have arguably the best defense in the NFL, a potent running game, some play-makers on offense, and a terrific coaching staff. I believe that an 11-5 record is still possible.

As you can guess, I like the Vikings in this contest. I believe they’ll make it an effort to prove the naysayers wrong; that they can still win a Super Bowl without Bridgewater. It also helps that they’re a much better team than the Titans, so as long as the line stays under -3, I like Minnesota for a couple of units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Still no word on whom the Vikings will start, but that doesn’t matter. There’s some sharp movement on the Vikings, but not a lot. I wonder if they’ll react positively to Sam Bradford getting the nod.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread has been creeping up and is now Vikings -2.5. It’s even three in some places! I would not wager on Minnesota at -3.5, but I highly doubt this spread rises that far.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line hasn’t hit -3 -110 yet, which isn’t a surprise. Some late sharp money has come in on the Titans, but it’s not substantial.

The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.

The Vikings are a great team playing without their quarterback for the first time, so they’ll be hyped up to prove themselves. I don’t think they’ll look ahead to Green Bay as a result.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 55% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Vikings are 17-26 ATS in outdoor road games since 2008.

Titans are 22-13 ATS in non-conference home games.

Opening Line: Vikings -3.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Vikings 17, Titans 13
Vikings -2.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Vikings 25, Titans 16

Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)
Line: Eagles by 4. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Eagles -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -4.
Sunday, Sept 11, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Eagles.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting lots of hate mail this season. Here’s an example of what I saw leading up to the draft:

Here’s someone who somehow doesn’t quite understand how stupid Chip Kelly is:

While Kelly doesn’t get simple NFL concepts, this dude, Harbs, can’t quite grasp simple life concepts.

Stay tuned for much more of that in coming weeks. In the meantime, here’s a tribute to the only member of the Hate Mail Hall of Fame, Jerry Jackson.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles shocked everyone twice this past week. They initially made a crazy trade by unloading Sam Bradford to the Vikings. Then, they announced that despite the rib injury he sustained in his preseason debut, Carson Wentz would start the season opener. It’s definitely been a wild ride leading up to kickoff weekend!

I like Wentz’s potential, and many teams agree. In fact, every franchise we spoke to leading up to the draft – about a dozen or so – all preferred Wentz over Jared Goff, and they were utterly confused as to why the Rams liked Goff more. In fact, there are prominent members within the Rams’ organization who liked Wentz more than Goff.

Wentz certainly gets an easy challenge in his debut, as he’ll be battling a Cleveland defense mostly devoid of talent. Seriously, I don’t see how the Browns are going to stop anyone. They have just two players on the stop unit who would be slam-dunk starters elsewhere in Joe Haden and Christian Kirksey. Perhaps some of the rookies like Carl Nassib, Emmanuel Ogbah and Joe Schobert will be able to develop, but this is a young defense that will go through some major growing pains – beginning on kickoff weekend.

The Eagles definitely have glaring problems of their own, as their offensive line is a concern. Fortunately for Wentz, he won’t face much of a pass rush, and he’ll also have Lane Johnson blocking for him, as the league inexplicably has done nothing for Johnson’s assumed banning. Wentz figures to have ample time to find Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: It’s difficult to determine what we should expect from the Browns’ scoring attack. They’ve turned to Robert Griffin, who has flashed at times during the preseason, but has struggled in some moments as well. Griffin obviously has great talent, but how will he adjust to an opponent that’ll actually scheme for him? He was able to get away with not reading defenses in exhibition contests, but that won’t fly now.

It’s not just about Griffin though, as Cleveland’s offensive line figures to be a major liability. The team lost Alex Mack and Mitchell Schwartz in the offseason, so the blocking won’t be nearly as effective, especially with Cameron Erving struggling immensely. Philadelphia’s primary strength is its defensive line, so that’s a huge mismatch.

Griffin won’t have any sort of time in the pocket, so he’ll have issues connecting with his pedestrian receivers. The supporting cast will be much better late in the year when Josh Gordon returns and Corey Coleman progresses, but Griffin doesn’t have much to work with outside of Gary Barnidge right now. The Eagles’ defensive weakness is the cornerback group, but I don’t think the Browns have the personnel to take advantage of that.

RECAP: I initially planned on picking the Browns, but I’ve changed my mind. Cleveland is one of the worst teams in the NFL, and I don’t really want anything to do with them unless I’m getting a ton of points. Four is certainly not a ton, so I’m taking Philadelphia.

The Eagles seem like the more-logical choice anyway. As I wrote, they own an enormous mismatch in the trenches, so they should be able to grind out a victory. I’m not betting on them, however, as I’m not keen on laying points with a rookie quarterback making his first start.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s more professional money on the Browns than the Eagles, which does not surprise me. This is a coin-flip contest for me that I won’t be touching. I will note though that in ESPN’s pick em, Cleveland is +6.5. I would definitely take the Browns at that number.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s some sharp money on the Browns, but not a lot. This spread has still dropped to Eagles -3.5, or even -3 -120 in some places. Something tells me it’s wrong of that number to drop, but I don’t have a good feel for this game, so I’ll just pass on it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has bounced back up to -4. There’s been some late professional money on the Eagles, as they were willing to jump on -3.5.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 52% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Eagles are 17-33 ATS at home since 2010.

Opening Line: Eagles -7.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Eagles 19, Browns 13
Eagles -4 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Eagles 29, Browns 10

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)
Line: Pick. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Bengals -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bengals -3.
Sunday, Sept 11, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Bengals.

I was asked where my NFL Season Over-Under Win Bets are. You can find them by clicking the link. Also, check back here later during the week, as I’ll have two awesome announcements in terms of new contests!

Announcement No. 1: We have a brand new weekly fantasy football contest. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Had this matchup taken place last year, I would’ve discussed how the Bengals had no chance of establishing the run against the Jets and their impenetrable rush defense. That, however, is no longer the case, thanks to two events that took place this offseason. The first was Damon “Snacks” Harrison’s departure. He was replaced by former Steeler Steve McLendon, which is a massive downgrade. I can’t emphasize how much of a drop-off that is. The second was the suspension of Sheldon Richardson. Muhammad Wilkerson is the only remaining member of a once-great front, and he won’t be able to handle Cincinnati’s stalwart blocking unit by himself.

The Bengals figure to have a big edge in the trenches in this contest. That bodes well for Jeremy Hill, who has appeared to be in much better shape. Hill running well will help Andy Dalton, who won’t have Tyler Eifert at his disposal. That’s a shame for the Bengals, as Eifert figured to have a great matchup against a weak linebacking corps.

Still, I think Dalton will be able to have some success. He can still throw to A.J. Green, who was pretty good, the last time I checked. Green will be battling Darrelle Revis, who isn’t the dominant force he once was. Revis is still a good player, but he’s no longer a shutdown corner, and I believe Green can win that matchup.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Ryan Fitzpatrick used to play for the Bengals, and I have to imagine that Cincinnati fans were dying after hearing Fitzpatrick’s outrageous contract demands this offseason. Fitzpatrick was so horrible in the season finale that he ended up costing the Jets a playoff spot, so it seems ridiculous that he would ask for way more money than he’s worth.

I think that horrendous finale might have scarred Fitzpatrick, as he looked extremely shaky in the preseason. If he couldn’t handle basic, vanilla defenses, how is he going to have any sort of success against Cincinnati’s top-five stop unit? Sure, Brandon Marshall wasn’t available, but how would Marshall have caught ugly floaters that sailed 20 yards out of bounds? Besides, there’s no guarantee that Marshall will have the same impact as he did in 2015, given that he’s now 32.

Speaking of old players, the Jets brought in Matt Forte to run the ball, which doesn’t seem like the greatest idea, given that Forte was already on the decline. The Bengals had a great run defense last season, and nothing really has changed in that regard, so I expect them to dominate the trenches and keep Forte in check.

RECAP: This spread is right around where it should be, though I would’ve made the Bengals a whole -3. Still, half a point doesn’t provide much of a betting opportunity. I like Cincinnati to cover, but I’m not in love with this game. There are many more appealing contests on the slate.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a lot of action on this game. Some of it is public money, but more is professional. The Jets aren’t getting any sharp support, which isn’t surprising in the slightest. I think the spread is close to where it should be, however.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are some injury concerns for the Jets, so keep in mind of those if you plan on betting them. Brandon Marshall and David Harris will likely play, but they’re both banged up with hip and shoulder injuries, respectively, so they may not be 100 percent. Still, that’s not enough for me to wager on the Bengals, as this spread is still close to what it should be.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tons of sharp money has been pouring on on the Jets, and this line is now pick. I disagree with their take on the game, as the Bengals are the superior team. I think I’m going to put one unit on the Bengals, as I’m confident they can win the game straight up.

The Psychology. Edge: Jets.

The Bengals battle the Steelers and Broncos after this, so it’s a possible look-ahead.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
Slight lean on the Jets.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 64% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Jets are 10-17 ATS in September home games since 2000 (6-6 since in 2009).

Opening Line: Bengals -1.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Bengals 23, Jets 16
Bengals PK (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bengals 23, Jets 22

Oakland Raiders (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0)
Line: Saints by 3. Total: 51.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Saints -2.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Raiders -2.
Sunday, Sept 11, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Raiders.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I’m so glad it’s autumn. Sure, I’m going to miss sitting outside in the warm weather and creepily staring at scantily dressed women, but the return of football is worth it. Besides, we get to stop having ESPN shove baseball down our throats. I’ve always theorized that the only reason baseball is popular is because there’s nothing else on in the summer. I mean, there’s no other explanation for anyone tuning into a “sport” in which a bunch of fat guys just stand around, chew tobacco and scratch their balls.

The worst thing about our summer sport is that ESPN televises Little League Baseball, which I think is the worst thing ever. First of all, I don’t think it should be on TV at all. I mean, really, who’s tuning in and watching that crap besides lonely men with mustaches who enjoy watching little boys a bit too much? That’s seriously Little League Baseball’s core audience. And second, they’re just kids. These are 12-year-old children who stand on the other side of the gym than the girls in their class. Why would any non-pervs want to see this?

What sparked this ire was ESPN airing some Little League game between Washington and Idaho. I saw this because I have a scheduled recording for Pardon the Interruption, which was moved to ESPN2 in lieu of perv programming. I was furious. Why couldn’t ESPN have the Little League game on ESPN2, since people, like me, record their daily programs? Don’t they know they’re screwing with their audience? Why does ESPN not care? I’m not even asking them to put Little League on the ESPN Perverts Network. Just don’t f*** up people’s lives by moving something people actually watch!

2. We had another sporting event this summer, the Olympic games! How fun! Not.

I’ve made it known that I hate the Olympics. By now, you’re probably picturing me as some old man sitting on a porch chair, throwing rocks at kids who look like they’re having too much fun. And you would be right. But I don’t know what that has to do with hating the Olympics!

I just don’t get the appeal. America’s mostly great and all, despite what some communist quarterbacks may think, but what do we get for athletes winning medals? And some of them are douches anyway, like Ryan Lochte. They don’t care about me, and I don’t care about them.

In fact, I think America is better off not winning any medals. That way, other countries stop hating us. If we sucked at everything, we’d be the butt of every joke. Instead of wanting to bomb us, Middle Eastern countries would be thinking, “Haha, silly Americans, they can’t win at anything! Not even worth hating! Now, let’s find all the gays and kill them, and then donate money to Hillary Clinton!”

See? I know how to create world peace. All we need to do is have our douche athletes lose on purpose!

3. Lastly, if you’re looking for my thoughts on Colin Kaepernick, you can check out my Jerks of the Year entry, but don’t read it if you’re too sensitive and fail to understand logic. You’ve been warned!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: I discussed the Saints earlier in the overrated-underrated section, but I’d like to emphasize what I wrote about them. Everyone assumes that this team will struggle defensively, but will be able to engage in shootouts because of Drew Brees. I don’t think that’ll be the case most weeks, as the Saints can’t block. Left tackle Terron Armstead can barely walk right now, as he’s battling an injury. And guess who Armstead has to block this week?

Khalil Mack is going to destroy Brees. I also like some of Oakland’s newer players like Jihad Ward to take advantage of some liabilities in the interior, namely Andrus Peat, who has been atrocious in the preseason. This is going to make things difficult for Brees, who is paired with an underwhelming receiving corps beyond Brandin Cooks. Willie Snead is just fine, but Michael Thomas doesn’t appear ready to be a consistent contributor, while Coby Fleener is having issues mastering the playbook.

The Saints will try to establish Mark Ingram, but that will prove to be difficult. Once again, they don’t really have the blocking to do so. Also, the Raiders, who were just average versus the run last year, figure to be better in that regard with Bruce Irvin now on the roster.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Can we discuss how horrible the Saints’ defense is for a moment? With Sheldon Rankins out, they’re starting some guy named Tyeler Davison at defensive tackle. He’s so bad he doesn’t have that second “D” in his last name. Paul Kruger, meanwhile, is on the edge, despite the fact that he was recently waived by the horrible Browns. James Laurinaitis, who is so bad that he should be out of the league, is the starting middle linebacker. The secondary isn’t bad, but with Keenan Lewis gone, it’s also incredibly thin. The Saints are one injury away from starting an undrafted rookie free agent!

The Saints surrendered 27 or more points in nine games last year, yet they seem to somehow be worse on defense this season. It wouldn’t surprise me if that nine figure became 11 or even 12!

The Raiders simply have too much offensive firepower for the Saints to handle. Derek Carr could have his biggest game of the year, as New Orleans doesn’t have the personnel to match up with both Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Latavius Murray, meanwhile, could approach 200 rushing yards – and I don’t even like Murray this year! I just don’t see how the Saints’ defensive front will be able to accomplish anything against the Oakland offensive line, which is one of the top blocking units in the NFL.

RECAP: The Saints are in shambles, and I believe they’re one of the worst teams in the NFL. They should not be favored in this matchup. That said, I’m not betting the Raiders either. My one concern with them is the high expectations everyone has placed on them. Perhaps they’ll overcome that and live up to the hype, but from my experience, I know that young teams with no history of success tend to disappoint when the public and media expects them to accomplish a lot. The Raiders haven’t been in this role in more than a decade, so I need to see them thrive in it first.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The public is split on this game. All the money is coming from the sharps. They’ve been betting this line down, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Raiders are favored by Sunday morning. I don’t see the value, though I’d be more confident in Oakland if it weren’t for the high expectations.

SATURDAY NOTES: I don’t really have anything new to add here. The sharps continue to pound the Raiders, though the spread shockingly hasn’t moved in their favor for some reason.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line has moved up to -2.5 or -3 -105, which I don’t understand because there’s more professional money on Oakland. There must have been one or perhaps a couple of big wagers Sunday morning to move this.

The Psychology. Edge: Saints.

Will the Raiders choke due to high expectations?

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.
Slight lean on the Raiders.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 64% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Saints are 36-22 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Opening Line: Saints -2.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Raiders 27, Saints 23
Raiders +3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 51 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 35, Saints 34

San Diego Chargers (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)
Line: Chiefs by 7. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Chiefs -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -3.
Sunday, Sept 11, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. If you don’t know, I also publish College Football Picks in addition to NFL picks. I had a losing season in that regard as well last year, but I managed to go 5-0 in Week 1, so hopefully that continues!

2. One of my Week 1 picks in college football was Houston over Oklahoma. I only regret not betting more than two units. One of the reasons I wagered on the Cougars was because of the coach on the opposite sideline. That would be “Big Game” Bob Stoops, of course, who choked like Aurora Snow once again. There was discussion about Stoops being fired at the end of the year on Twitter, but I hope that’s not the case because it’s so fun betting against him in big games.

Speaking of that contest, I found it utterly ridiculous that Houston was slapped with a celebration penalty on its 109-yard return on the missed field goal. It was the craziest play ever, with the returner even hurdling his own blocker! How could he not celebrate? I hate this stupid rule. It was made by archaic fossils who can’t get hard anymore, so they have to make sure that no one else has fun either. I’d love to see one player take one of these celebration flags, whip out his giant wang that the archaic fossils are jealous of, and just urinate all over it. I suppose that’s grounds for public urination, but it would still be awesome.

3. Speaking of wangs, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Matt Millen, who was the color analyst for the Ohio State-Bowling Green game. I was listening closely for Millen-isms, but he didn’t offer any … until late, when he said of one safety, “He’s got some Ed Reed inside him.”

Millen then added, “I’d like some Ed Reed inside me!”

OK, he didn’t really say that, but for a second there, you believed me, didn’t you?

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: I’m genuinely excited to watch the Chargers this year, and I’m sure their 20 fans agree. I expected big things out of them last year, and it looked like that was going to happen. They were 1-1, coming off a close road loss to the Bengals – no shame in that – and they were battling the Vikings in another road contest. Suddenly, multiple starters on their offensive line went down. The Chargers couldn’t score as a result, sustaining a blowout loss. They suffered key injuries almost every week after that. Key players like Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates and more linemen went down. It was ugly.

The Chargers are back at full strength now. The same can’t be said for the Chiefs, who are missing Justin Houston, their best defensive player. Tamba Hali is also banged up, as he’ll be on a snap count, while Eric Berry won’t be 100 percent after missing all of training camp. With Houston out and Hali limited, Philip Rivers will have way more time in the pocket than he did in two losses to the Chiefs last year, and he’ll actually be able to throw to Allen, whom Kansas City did not see. The Chiefs also lost Sean Smith this offseason, so that bodes well for the San Diego receivers.

San Diego wasn’t able to run the ball well last year. A lot of that had to do with the offensive line, but Melvin Gordon struggled as well, thanks to a lingering knee injury. Gordon looks 100 percent now, and if the preseason is any indication, he’s set to have a big year. I don’t think he’ll break out versus the Chiefs, but he should be able to provide enough of a threat to assist Rivers.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Jamaal Charles is out, but what does that matter, given that the Chiefs had a much better record with Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West running the ball last season? Everyone, of course, remembers what Ware and West did to the Chargers in their first 2015 meeting. In fact, I had someone yell at me for slotting Ware too low in my Week 1 rankings.

However, what people seem to forget is while the Chargers were woeful against the rush at times in 2015, they improved markedly in that regard toward the end of the season, thanks to the insertion of rookie linebacker Denzel Perryman into the lineup. Perryman proved to be an enormous upgrade over the ineffective Donald Butler. Also, it needs to be mentioned that the Chargers signed Brandon Mebane this offseason. Mebane is an effective run-plugger, so it’s safe to say that Ware and West won’t be running wild in this particular matchup.

With the Chiefs’ offense struggling to run as well as it did last time, it’ll put more of a burden on Alex Smith. I’m sure Smith will convert some third downs with short tosses and timely runs, but Kansas City’s offense won’t be consistent enough to score lots of points, which is an indicator that the underdog is the right side.

RECAP: Not only do I believe the underdog is the right side; I think it’s the best side. As in NFL Pick of the Month.

Yes, I’m pulling the trigger, and I’m locking it in. I actually unloaded on the Chargers +7 when I was in Vegas back in July, and I also bet some on the moneyline. This seems like a no-brainer to me.

First of all, this line makes absolutely zero sense. There is only one spread higher than this in Week 1, and the disparity between the Chiefs and Chargers is not that great. Perhaps it was last year when San Diego was completely banged up, but that’s not the case anymore. The Chargers are healthy, while the Chiefs are the ones who are dealing with injuries. Not having Houston on the field is a huge deal!

I can’t pass up on the value of this spread. Considering Houston and the other injured Chiefs, this line should be Kansas City -3. We’re getting four points of value while going through two key numbers in three and seven!

Also, in terms of the spread, it needs to be noted that the Chiefs don’t score consistently enough to warrant such a large spread. They’re just 5-6 ATS when favored by seven or more under Reid, which doesn’t seem like a great stat until you remember that most of the teams they’ve been favored by that much over were the dregs of the NFL. The Chargers are not. They’re a good, underrated team that is healthy at the moment.

Oh, and don’t underestimate the impact of the blowout last year. The Chiefs embarrassed the Chargers in their first meeting, winning 33-3. San Diego couldn’t do a single thing right in that game, as four of its starting offensive linemen were out. That’s not the case now.

I love the Chargers in this spot. We’re getting an underrated team with revenge on its mind battling a wounded foe. And, to top it off, having seven points with a terrific quarterback like Rivers seems like incredible value. It just dawned on me to look it up, and Rivers is 10-3 against the spread as an underdog of seven or more. I know I promised to stay away from trends, but I see that as more of a reflection of common sense. Rivers is simply too good to be an underdog of so many points!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was happy to see that the sharps have bet this down to +6.5, or even +6 in some places. The +7 -110 I grabbed in July is long gone, and I’m pretty happy with my number.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was asked today if you should buy the seven or just bet Chargers +6 if you haven’t submitted the pick yet. I’d go up to +7 if you can get -125. Anything more than that, I’d settle for +6.5. This seems like it’ll be a field goal game. The sharps agree.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m disappointed this line hasn’t dropped much further. The good news is that if you want to bet the Chargers and haven’t already, you can get them at +7 -115 at Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.

The Chiefs swept the Chargers last year, with one victory being a blowout. San Diego will look to avenge last year’s 33-3 blowout.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 51% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Home Team has won 25 of the last 36 meetings (Chiefs have won last 4).

Chargers are 10-3 ATS as underdogs of 7 or more since 2007.

Chiefs are 20-9 ATS in season openers at home since 1971.

Opening Line: Chiefs -7.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Chargers 27, Chiefs 24
Chargers +7 (8 Units – September NFL Pick of the Month) — Correct; +$800
Over 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 33, Chargers 27

Buffalo Bills (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0)
Line: Ravens by 3. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Ravens -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -3.
Sunday, Sept 11, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Ravens.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Five years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for the 2013 season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses. In 2014, Donald Sterling answered spammers.

Last year, Tom Brady and his deflated footballs were involved. You can see those Spam Mails here with my responses to avoid clutter. I’ll have brand new spam mail responses next week!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: It’s interesting that Vegas would list this game and the Chargers-Chiefs contest back-to-back on their board, since they’re pretty similar. In fact, if the Ravens were playing at Buffalo and were getting seven points, I’d consider them to be almost exactly identical!

The Ravens, like San Diego, had an unbelievable amount of injuries last season. I referenced them as one of the underrated teams earlier because of that. The Bills, meanwhile, are banged up, much like the Chiefs. They have it worse, however, as they’ve taken multiple hits to the front seven. Marcell Dareus is suspended, while Reggie Ragland and Shaq Lawson are injured. Without these players – Dareus in particular – it’s going to be difficult for the Bills to generate a pass rush to rattle Joe Flacco. The Ravens have some offensive line concerns of their own – I don’t trust Ronnie Stanley, while a fourth-round rookie is slated to start at left guard – but the Bills don’t have the personnel to take advantage of that.

Where the Bills are strong, however, is the secondary. Flacco now has Breshad Perriman at his disposal to go along with Kamar Aiken, who emerged last season. Mike Wallace is around, but I don’t expect much out of him, and the same can be said about Steve Smith, who is coming off a torn Achilles. Still, Flacco’s supporting cast is better than it was last year after Smith went down. There’s also Justin Forsett, who re-signed with the team and should be able to do some damage as a receiver out of the backfield versus Buffalo’s injury-ravaged front seven.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills’ offense will have to carry the team until Dareus returns from suspension. That shouldn’t be much of a problem as long as Tyrod Taylor remains healthy. Keeping Taylor upright could be an issue, however, given that he’s so brittle. Sammy Watkins also has a detailed injury history, so while the Bills could be explosive one week, they could be horrendous the next.

The offensive line might be an issue depending on Cordy Glenn’s status. Glenn is dealing with an ankle injury. It sounds like he might be able to play, but he could always aggravate it and leave early. If that happens, the Bills won’t have much of a chance to score, as Terrell Suggs, who is returning from injury himself, should have his way with Buffalo’s backup left tackle. Suggs might even win the matchup if Glenn isn’t 100 percent.

That said, if Glenn can hold up, Taylor should have plenty of success against a secondary that isn’t very good. The Ravens added Eric Weddle this offseason, but the cornerbacks still seem atrocious, and I don’t know how they’ll hang with Watkins.

RECAP: I’m torn on this game because I think the spread is exactly where it should be. Ravens -3 seems perfect.

I’m not making a wager here, but I am leaning toward the Ravens for three reasons. First, quite simply, Baltimore is healthier right now. Second, I trust John Harbaugh more than Rex Ryan, whose team is often undisciplined. A key penalty could turn the tide of what should be a close affair. And third, if Glenn gets knocked out early, which is a strong possibility, that could fundamentally alter Buffalo’s game plan, making it difficult for them to overcome that.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The public is split here, while the pros have bet the Ravens a bit. That would explain why the juice on this number has risen. I wonder if this will move -3; there could be sharps hoping for a +3.5 to grab Buffalo. I would even consider switching to the Bills at +3.5; that’s how much of a toss-up this is for me.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps are continuing to hit the Ravens at a somewhat decent rate, which would explain why the juice to select Baltimore is now at -125. I’m wondering if the books are too scared to go to +3.5. It’s worth noting that Elvis Dumervil is out, so like I said, I think I’d consider Bills +3.5. I feel like the most likely result is Baltimore winning this contest by three.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The juice has dropped, as the people who wanted to bet the Bills realized they couldn’t get +3.5, though they did obtain +3 at plus money. Like I said before, the most likely result here is Baltimore winning by three.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 59% (10,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

True home teams are 28-15 ATS in the last 43 Bills games.

Ravens are 21-14 ATS at home as an underdog or favorite of 1-7 points with Joe Flacco.

Opening Line: Ravens -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 27, Bills 23
Ravens -3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Ravens 13, Bills 7

Chicago Bears (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)
Line: Texans by 6. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Texans -5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -3.5.
Sunday, Sept 11, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: Let’s begin the season by posting a video of me getting my a** slapped with a wooden paddle by a hot nurse in Las Vegas:

Yes, I’m into kinky stuff like this, not that there’s anything wrong with that. Oh, and as I mentioned in the comments, the first one wasn’t so bad, but each one afterward hurt like a motherf***er. It eventually felt like my a** was bleeding!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: This spread has risen by nearly a field goal since the opening line for a couple of reasons. The primary one is everyone’s disdain for Jay Cutler. In my interview with Erin Coscarelli, she cited that Cutler is “portrayed as a great villain,” which is totally true. Some of that is his fault for his demeanor, but he had a solid 2015 and legitimately seemed to care.

The issue, however, is that Adam Gase is no longer around to mentor Cutler. Still, that could be compensated by Cutler’s improved supporting cast. Alshon Jeffery is actually healthy (for now), and Kevin White is back. Meanwhile, the offensive line got a big boost by the signing of Josh Sitton, one of the better guards in the NFL. That really shored up the interior of Chicago’s front, which is crucial for this matchup because J.J. Watt is going to play.

Watt being on the field is another reason why this spread has risen, but I’m not sure how warranted that is. Don’t get me wrong; Watt is the best defensive player in the NFL. When he’s healthy, that is. He labored through an injury against the Chiefs in the playoffs, and I have a feeling something similar may happen in this contest. It just seems like he’s returning prematurely, which could have consequences.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Watt isn’t the only major injured player the Texans are dealing with. Two of their top linemen are out, as left tackle Duane Brown and center Nick Martin won’t be available to protect Brock Osweiler and open running lanes for Lamar Miller. Now, the casual bettor might know this and think, Ahh, who cares, the Bears defense has sucked ever since Urlacher left! While that might be true, it’s definitely no longer the case.

Chicago made some terrific pick-ups this offseason, signing Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman away from the Broncos and Colts, respectively. They also signed Akiem Hicks, a highly sought-after free agent, away from the Patriots. I like their front seven a lot, and it’s definitely going to give Osweiler issues. This will be important, as Chicago’s cornerbacks are a liability, and they happen to have a tough matchup versus DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. However, it may not matter much if Osweiler is constantly under duress.

As mentioned, I don’t think Miller will have much success either. I anticipate the Bears owning a top-10 run defense this year, so with Miller unable to keep Osweiler out of long-yardage situations, the Bears figure to keep the score down, giving themselves a chance to pull the upset.

RECAP: There’s so much hype surrounding the Texans right now. Like the Raiders, I’m not sure they’re equipped to handle it. Meanwhile, everyone is trashing the Bears, which is pretty unwarranted. I think Chicago has a chance to go 8-8 or so – nothing crazy, but enough to be competitive and cover large spreads like this one.

I’m taking the Bears for three units, as they’ll probably be one of my five Supercontest selections. I love going against incorrect public overreactions, so as you can imagine, I’m loving the line movement. I even anticipated betting Chicago for a unit or two when this spread was +4!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game yet. Perhaps that’ll change once J.J. Watt’s status becomes clear. It sounds like Watt will play, but will be on a limited snap count.

SATURDAY NOTES: There we go. The pros have moved this down to +5, despite Watt playing. I was wondering when the sharps would jump in, and it appears as though they have now. It wouldn’t shock me if this dropped to +4.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line dropped to +4.5, but some sharp action took that number, prompting the spread to rise back up to six. I still like the Bears for three units.

The Psychology. Edge: Bears.

The Texans battle the Chiefs (who knocked them out of the playoffs) and Broncos after this, so they may not be focused.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

What, no one wants to bet on Jay Cutler?

Percentage of money on Houston: 77% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Jay Cutler is 42-72 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Texans -4.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Texans 17, Bears 16
Bears +6 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Texans 23, Bears 14

Green Bay Packers (0-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)
Line: Packers by 3.5. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Packers -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -6.
Sunday, Sept 11, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Packers.

Last year, on the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts, Tom Brady was banned from the NFL for sexually assaulting Rob Gronkowski in an attempt to appease the Crips. Brady would end up uniting the Bloods and Crips, who were at war over how they should pleasure themselves while watching Justin Bieber music videos. Brady united the two clans, who formed the Two-Handed Gang. You can read all about it in the 2014 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts.

With peace prevalent throughout the land, Tom Brady has embarked on a more deflating endeavor. Someone was responsible for stealing the hair of every quarterback in the NFL. That turned out to be Gisele, who constructed an evil being named Peytom Branning:

Fortunately, Tom Brady stopped Peytom Branning from destroying the world. Check it out at the 2015 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts.

As for this season, Tom Brady will have a brand new mission which will culminate in the ultimate plot twist. You will not be disappointed! Check back next week for the first chapter of the 2016 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I picked the Packers to win the Super Bowl this year. I think they’re the best team, and they’re due to bounce back from last season’s disappointment. Aaron Rodgers dealt with an injured shoulder; Randall Cobb was even more hurt; Jordy Nelson was out; Eddie Lacy was fat; some of the offensive linemen were banged up; and there was a cheese shortage that only us fat men know about.

Everything seems great now, save for Josh Sitton’s strange release. Still, I think the Packers’ offense will be clicking on all cylinders. This is a great matchup for them as well. The Jaguars have some promising young defensive players in Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack, and while I think they’ll both end up being great pros, it doesn’t seem like they’re going to be quite prepared to defeat a great quarterback like Rodgers.

The Jaguars did manage to sport a solid ground defense last year, so I don’t think the Packers will score on every possession, or anything like that. However, Green Bay will definitely be consistent in its attack, as the Jaguars don’t have the pass rush or secondary to combat the best quarterback in the NFL right now.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars are yet another team that has received a ton of hype, but that quelled a bit by their performance in the preseason finale versus Cincinnati. Jacksonville’s starting scoring unit couldn’t do anything against the Bengals. Granted, Cincinnati has one of the stop units in the NFL, but the same can be said about Green Bay’s defense.

The Packers are capable of putting a heavy amount of pressure on opposing signal-callers – they registered 43 sacks in 2015 with Clay Matthews playing inside – which is going to spell trouble for Blake Bortles. The Jaguars have some major concerns up front, particularly with Luke Joeckel, and I think Green Bay can easily expose that liability. This will lead to more bad decision-making from Bortles, who will have to pad his stats in the second half, per usual.

RECAP: I’m never thrilled to wager on a publicly backed road favorite, but that’s what I’ll be doing here. The Packers are one of the best teams in the NFL, while the Jaguars are one of the worst. This spread is relatively small – I think it should be at least six – so I’m fine with betting two units on the Packers.

That said, I really wish this line were three. I can envision a scenario in which the Packers are up by 10 late, and then Bortles throws a back-door touchdown with seconds remaining in regulation. Still, I think this game is a complete mismatch and that Green Bay is worth a wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The public is moving this line up. The pros haven’t touched this game, and understandably so. Why bet one of the worst teams in the NFL versus one of the best if you’re not getting a ton of points?

SATURDAY NOTES: Green Bay is now the most-bet team of the week, but that won’t deter me from wagering two units on them. The Packers are simply that much better, and I think Vegas set a bad line. It’s telling that the sharps haven’t touched the Jaguars.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have finally bitten and have taken down this line to -3.5, though I suspect that’s more of a contrarian thought process.

The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.

The Packers have to take on the Vikings after this “easy” game.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Bet on the Packers! Free money!

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 82% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Aaron Rodgers is 69-42 ATS since 2009 (9-6 ATS as a favorite of 12+).

Aaron Rodgers is 30-21 ATS on the road as long as he’s not favored by 6.5 or more points.

Jaguars are 10-26 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Jaguars are 26-54 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Packers -4.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Packers 30, Jaguars 20
Packers -3.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Packers 27, Jaguars 23

Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games
Miami at Seattle, NY Giants at Dallas, Detroit at Indianapolis, New England at Arizona, Pittsburgh at Washington, Los Angeles at San Francisco

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)