NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2016

NFL Picks (Preseason 2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 12, 5:10 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games

Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-0)
Line: Seahawks by 10.5. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Seahawks -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -8.
Sunday, Sept 11, 4:05 PM
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The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: On one hand, I can understand why the Seahawks are favored by so much. They’re THE Seahawks, a team that has participated in two of the previous three Super Bowls, and they have Ruskell Wilkens, MVP Canadate. Sure, Marshawn Lynch is gone, but this offense actually operated better when Lynch was out of the lineup last year.

On the other hand, I’m pretty confident that this spread is wrong. Seattle laying double digits indicates that the team can score consistently enough to beat that high number, and I don’t think that’s the case. The issue is the offensive line, of course, which was atrocious in the preseason. That was the case early last year as well until the Seahawks fixed things during their bye. Perhaps the coaching staff will solve the issue during the week off again, but for now, it’s a major liability, thanks to Russell Okung’s departure. Seattle had issues maintaining drives against the Minnesota, Dallas and Oakland backups!

There’s a major mismatch in this game, and it has to do with Seattle’s blockers. It’s in the trenches on this side of the ball, as Ndamukong Suh, Cameron Wake and perhaps Mario Williams are way too potent for the Seahawks’ offensive line to handle. Suh and Wake (and maybe Williams) will generate an immense amount of heat on Russell Wilson. They’ll also clamp down on Christine Michael and Thomas Rawls. I’m sure Wilson will connect on some deep passes, as his receivers should be able to beat Miami’s poor corners, but Wilson won’t have enough time in the pocket to consistently do that.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins have a problem up front as well, and it’s at center. Mike Pouncey is one of the better players at his position, but he’s dealing with a hip injury. He’s considered week to week, so it sounds like he’ll miss the opener. If so, that’s a major downgrade, as some guy named Anthony Steen, an undrafted free agent from 2015, will take Pouncey’s spot.

This is obviously problematic. Center is one of the most important positions in the NFL, especially when going up against a stalwart defense like Seattle’s. Ryan Tannehill won’t have as much time in the pocket as he’d like, especially with Arian Foster being unable to find any running lanes.

As you can imagine, this is not good. Tannehill was already tasked with battling one of the top secondaries in the NFL without his second-year receiver DeVante Parker. Jarvis Landry is still there, and I think he’ll make some key plays, but the Dolphins will sputter on this side of the ball.

RECAP: Despite Pouncey’s absence, this spread is absurd. I can’t see the Seahawks scoring enough consistently to cover, thanks to the enormous mismatch in the trenches. This figures to be a very low-scoring game, probably in the teens, so the Dolphins seem like the right side.

I’m wagering two units on Miami. It’s just too bad that Pouncey isn’t playing, as anything more than 10 would seem like a gift from the gambling gods if Pouncey were available. I was even considering four units on the Dolphins prior to Pouncey’s injury!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The public has been split on this game, while the sharps haven’t touched this yet. I think the pros might be hoping this line goes up to grab more value with the Dolphins. I doubt they’ll be on Seattle.

SATURDAY NOTES: As if the Seahawks didn’t have enough offensive line concerns, Germain Ifedi is now out. I can’t see Seattle blocking Miami’s defensive front. Pinnacle is begging for Seattle money, by the way, as it’s listing a line of -10 -105.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line has remained steady, and no sharp action has affected anything. The Dolphins can be had for +11 -115 at Bovada, but I wouldn’t pay the extra juice for that.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
Slight leanon the host.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 62% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Underdog is 66-37 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 103 games.

Seahawks are 23-4 ATS in September home games since 2000.

Seahawks are 36-16 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -7.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Seahawks 17, Dolphins 10
Dolphins +10.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Survivor Pick (0-0) — Survivor Pick Advice
Seahawks 12, Dolphins 10

New York Giants (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0)
Line: Giants by 1.5. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cowboys -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Sept 11, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.

Once again, you can win $350 in the WalterFootball.com 2016 NFL Survivor Pool. To enter, just click the link and follow the rules. Entry is FREE, so make sure you sign up for a chance to win $350.

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

DALLAS OFFENSE: If Dak Prescott didn’t look so great in the preseason, can you imagine the sort of panic surrounding the Cowboys right now? They endured a year of Brandon Weeden, Matt Cassel and Kellen Moore, and they’d have to repeat that once again, which would be absolutely brutal. It wouldn’t have surprised me if some Dallas fans decided to end things entirely!

Fortunately for the Cowboys, Prescott had the best preseason of any rookie quarterback, and it wasn’t even close. He displayed everything – great accuracy, powerful arm strength, terrific mobility, and an unprecedented command of the offense for a rookie. He wasn’t just battling backup defenses either; he was taking on starting units and thriving against them, which was just remarkable.

The Giants will provide a very difficult test, however. They’ve made some key additions to their defense this offseason and now figure to boast one of the elite stop units in the NFL. With Damon “Snacks” Harrison on the interior, it’s going to be next to impossible to run against them, so I wouldn’t expect Ezekiel Elliott to have a big performance. Prescott will have to throw out of plenty of third-and-long situations, where the Giants’ talented cornerbacks will be waiting for opportunities to snatch interceptions.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants have issues on this side of the ball as well. Their offensive line is a disaster area, and it’s the primary catalyst for their starting scoring unit going three-and-out eight times out of 12 drives in the preseason. I don’t need to tell you how pathetic tha percentage is. New York had issues achieving a single first down against second-string defenses!

The Giants have to be thrilled that they are battling a Dallas defense that will be missing several players, however, as Demarcus Lawrence, Randy Gregory and Rolando McClain are all serving suspensions. Sean Lee is basically all that’s left in a comically ravaged front seven. So, if there ever were a game for the Giants to get things going, this would be it.

That said, I wouldn’t expect New York to score on every possession, or anything. The offensive line still sucks, and the Cowboys own a terrific secondary that is welcoming back Orlando Scandrick back from injury. Scandrick is the team’s top cornerback, so his return will provide a huge boost, regardless of how poor Dallas’ pass rush is.

RECAP: I’m torn on this game and don’t really know where to go with it. Both teams figure to be in a funk offensively for different reasons, and neither is entering the season with any sort of momentum. This truly seems like a coin-flip contest, so I think the pick-em spread is right on the money. I’m just going to fade the public and select the Cowboys in a contrarian move, but nothing would surprise me here. If anything, the under might be the best play.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The public is pounding the Giants, while the sharps haven’t weighed in. This seems like a 50-50 game to me and I can’t make much sense to me. Good luck on this one if you have a better read than I do!

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m still 50-50 on this game. I’m not touching it. The sharps aren’t either, though the public loves the Giants.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Giants are now either -1 or -1.5 (Bovada), but that’s not enough movement for me to take Dallas. The line shift is all public action, in case you were wondering.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

No one believes in Dak Prescott just yet.

Percentage of money on New York: 73% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Cowboys have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Giants are 45-27 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they’re not favored by 3.5 or more.

The underdog is 60-35 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Opening Line: Cowboys -4.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Cowboys 23, Giants 20
Cowboys +1.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Giants 20, Cowboys 19

Detroit Lions (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)
Line: Colts by 3. Total: 50.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Colts -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Colts -2.
Sunday, Sept 11, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Lions.

Emmitt on the Brink will be back for Season 9! It’ll start next week, but for now, check out Seasons 1-8, all available by clicking on that link. Season 8 saw Emmitt going to North Korea to stop Kim Jong-un from destroying the world. It featured a mind-blowing twist at the very end that you absolutely need to check out if you haven’t already. Season 9 will deal with election stuff, so get ready for the premiere next week!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Seahawks and Giants aren’t the only two teams with glaring offensive line issues playing in the late afternoon window. The Colts can also be included in that dubious group.

As with the Seattle and New York fronts, Indianapolis’ blocking unit couldn’t keep its quarterback protected whatsoever in exhibition contests. Making matters worse, Jack Mewhort, perhaps the Colts’ top lineman, is going to miss this game. That’s horrible news, given that Detroit’s defensive line has a couple of potent pass-rushers in Ziggy Ansah and Devin Taylor. Meanwhile, Haloti Ngata figures to dominate the interior, preventing Frank Gore from doing anything.

I still expect the Colts to score some points – they have a healthy Andrew Luck, after all – but drives will certainly be inconsistent, and the Colts could be forced into some turnovers as Luck continuously grows frustrated with the lack of protection.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Everyone was very focused on the Calvin Johnson retirement this offseason, but I don’t think it’ll have any sort of impact. While re-watching the 2015 season, I noticed that Johnson wasn’t particularly effective. At times, it seemed like his heart wasn’t into it, as he ran some lethargic routes. Marvin Jones isn’t nearly as talented as Megatron, but he’ll be a solid replacement, as he and Matthew Stafford developed quite the rapport over the summer.

Speaking of Stafford, he really took to Jim Bob Cooter’s offense in the second half of the 2015 campaign, covering six of his final eight games, and it would’ve been seven of eight if Aaron Rodgers didn’t hit Richard Rodgers with that inexplicable Hail Mary. The Lions could’ve easily made my underrated team list, as I like their chances of perhaps challenging for a playoff spot this year.

I also like the Lions’ chances in this particular contest. The Colts sustained a huge blow when Vontae Davis was lost with an injury. Davis was the best player on Indianapolis’ defense, and it wasn’t even close. The stop unit will be dramatically different without Davis, as the secondary won’t be able to cover anyone. The Colts also don’t have the pass rush to compensate for it, so I expect the Lions to score frequently in this game.

RECAP: The public hasn’t quite caught on to what’s going on with these teams yet. They think the Lions are a pedestrian squad that lost its best player, and they believe Indianapolis to be a solid team with a healthy Luck. That couldn’t be further from the truth, so let’s take advantage of these misconceptions by betting on the Lions, who shouldn’t be getting more than a field goal. They are, however, and I like them for four units.

Oh, by the way, if you’re still not convinced, here’s something interesting I was wondering about. Check out how Chuck Pagano has fared in Week 1 over the years:

2012: Lost at Bears, 41-21 (+10)
2013: Won vs. Raiders, 21-17 (-10)
2014: Lost at Broncos, 31-24 (+8)
2015: Lost at Bills, 27-14 (-1)

Pagano’s sole straight-up victory was against an awful Oakland team in which he failed to beat the spread. His sole ATS win was at Denver that featured a ridiculous back-door touchdown at the end. This doesn’t surprise me at all, as I don’t consider Pagano to be a good head coach. He seems like a great guy and all, but he should probably be a coordinator, as he doesn’t seem to prepare his team very well for the start of the season.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: If the Colts’ issues weren’t bad enough, now nickel Darius Butler isn’t practicing. The Lions are clearly the better team here, and the more I think about it, the more I want to place a fifth unit on Detroit. The sharps agree with me, as they’ve been pounding the Lions all week. The public has been on Indianapolis by a 2:1 ratio.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps are all over the Lions, and that’s why this spread is now +3. I wish I would’ve locked in +3.5 or +4, but I’m fine taking the +3 now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: All +3s are gone, which is nuts. I’d take +3 -120 at Bovada over +2.5 elsewhere. I don’t think I’d go for a +125. The sharps have bet on the Lions more than any other team this week.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.
Slight lean on the Lions, but most of the money is professional.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 60% (4,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Andrew Luck is 21-8 ATS at home.

Chuck Pagano is 2-6 ATS in the first two weeks of the season.

Opening Line: Colts -4.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Lions 34, Colts 24
Lions +3 -120 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Over 51 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Lions 39, Colts 35

New England Patriots (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)
Line: Cardinals by 9.5. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cardinals -4.
Sunday, Sept 11, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is about Colin Kaepernick. There are previous entries as well detailing my fun vacations to Las Vegas and Ocean City, Md.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: As everyone knows by now, Tom Brady has been suspended for four games, meaning Jimmy Garoppolo will be the starter until he returns. Garoppolo has a good amount of physical talent, as he was a second-round selection in the draft, but he’s obviously a downgrade from what Brady is, or at least, what Brady has been. Garoppolo had some nice moments in the preseason, but most of them came against second-string defenses. He struggled to move the ball versus starting stop units.

Now, the good news for Garoppolo is that he didn’t have Rob Gronkowski in the lineup in any of those exhibition contests. Throwing to Gronkowski makes all the difference in the world, and Garoppolo obviously has a better chance to succeed with his massive tight end serving as a potent intermediate target. The bad news for Garoppolo, however is that he’ll be battling Arizona’s stingy defense Sunday night. The Cardinals had one of the elite stop units last year prior to Tyrann Mathieu sustaining an injury. Mathieu is back, and now the Cardinals have Chandler Jones to cause havoc.

Jones’ presence is a big problem for the Patriots. They have some serious offensive line issues. Right tackle Sebastian Vollmer is out, and they’ll be starting two rookies at guard. I have no idea why New England neglected the offensive line this offseason for the most part, but it’s going to cost them. That’ll begin in this matchup, as Jones and Calais Campbell will put a ridiculous amount of pressure on an overwhelmed Garoppolo.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: If the gambling action is any indication, the betting public believes that because of Garoppolo’s mismatch with the Cardinals’ defense, the host is going to run away with this game in a blowout. And there’s a chance that could happen. A small chance, but a chance nonetheless.

Here are reasons why I don’t think this will be a blowout: First of all, Bill Belichick has had several months to prepare for this game, knowing he wouldn’t have Brady available. I trust Belichick to come up with a masterful game plan, especially on this side of the ball. He has numerous great defensive pieces, particularly at linebacker and the secondary. I’m sure he’ll have some schemes that will confuse Carson Palmer, which will perhaps cause some turnovers.

Second, I don’t trust Palmer at all. I’ve watched every snap of his in the preseason, and I have to say that he didn’t look like the same player. Something was off. He was missing zip on his passes, and he was largely ineffective in all three games he played. Perhaps this was a mirage, and he’ll improve in the regular season, but Palmer is a couple of months away from turning 37. All quarterbacks decline at some point, and this could be his time. If so, I don’t want to be caught laying lots of points with the Cardinals unless they’re playing a truly horrible team. And I would not consider the Patriots to be characterized that way, Brady or not.

RECAP: I said it before, but I love the thought of betting against public misconceptions. Most people believe this will be a blowout, but I trust Belichick to keep the game close, and I’m also very worried about Palmer. There’s a chance he could be done, and if he is, the Patriots could take this one outright. If you think that’s crazy, simply recall what Belichick was able to accomplish with Matt Cassel in 2008. And, as we very well learned, Cassel wasn’t any good.

I’m taking the Patriots for two units. I obviously like them, but the reason this isn’t a higher wager is my concern about their offensive line. They have one of the weakest blocking units in the NFL, so that gives me some pause.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Rob Gronkowski’s injury issue makes this a trickier game, and I’m considering dropping my units on the Patriots. They obviously won’t be as potent without Gronk. Then again, this could be the Patriots playing mind games. I don’t know. What I can tell you is the public is hitting the Cardinals pretty hard, while the pros have stayed away.

SATURDAY NOTES: This is going to be a unit change. I’m dropping everything off the Patriots. As you may know by now, Rob Gronkowski is out. Well, Nate Solder will also be missing from the lineup, so Garoppolo will be missing his two starting tackles and top weapon versus a stellar defense. I wouldn’t bet the Cardinals because I don’t trust Carson Palmer, but I no longer want any part of New England.

SUNDAY MORNING: Wow, look at this line movement! A cascade of money has come in on the Cardinals, mostly from the public. The sharps haven’t bet this one heavily, but they’ve been on Arizona for the most part. If this hits +10, I may look at the Patriots. Check back Sunday night or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was hoping that public action would continue to push this up to -10, but that hasn’t happened. This spread has been stuck on -9 and -9.5, with a bit of sharp money coming in on New England. I still think the Patriots will cover, but I don’t want to bet on a team missing its two best offensive linemen and top weapon. I would’ve gone with New England for two units, but Rob Gronkowski and Nate Solder being out changes that. I may have considered a unit at +10, but not at +9.5.

The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.

The Patriots will be looking to prove that they can win without Tom Brady.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New England: 53% (21,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Patriots are 19-11 ATS on the road vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Bruce Arians is 31-19 ATS as head coach of the Cardinals.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Cardinals 20, Patriots 17
Patriots +9.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 23, Cardinals 21

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0)
Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 50.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Steelers -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Redskins -1.
Monday, Sept 12, 7:10 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.

Trolling will be back this year. I tried to do this on Colin Kaepernick’s Facebook page:

Unfortunately, everyone was busy commenting on their own thing to notice. Don’t say I didn’t try!

I’ve also left some other messages around, so I hope people respond to those. I’m stuck though, as the racist fascists who work for Facebook have disallowed me from posting on NFL.com. I can do it, but then it doesn’t show up for anyone. I will, however, post what other trolls are saying, so don’t worry!

There’s a promising new troll on the prowl as well, as you can see here:

If people actually believe this is Herm Edwards, imagine how much fun we’ll have this season!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers would’ve been incredibly fun to watch had all of their players stayed clean, but Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant got into trouble and won’t be available for this game. Bryant is done for the year, but Bell will at least return in Week 4.

The Steelers’ scoring unit won’t be at full strength, which obviously bodes well for Washington’s defense. The Redskins have improved markedly on the defensive side of the ball this offseason, signing Josh Norman away from the Panthers. Norman is only one player, but he’s definitely a game-changer, as he’s one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL. There’s no stopping Antonio Brown, but the Redskins might be able to at least slow him down a bit with their terrific secondary, and I can’t really see any of Pittsburgh’s other receivers doing anything of note.

The one area the Steelers might be able to exploit is the running game, as the Redskins struggled to defend the rush last season. However, it’s unclear how well DeAngelo Williams will be able to perform. Williams played very well last year, but he’s now 33, so there could be a drop-off. If so, the Steelers won’t be able to get Bell back quickly enough.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins, unlike the Steelers, figure to have everyone available on this side of the ball, so Kirk Cousins should be able to pick up where he left off from his hot finish last season.

Cousins was amazing down the stretch. He picked up his play, and it helped that Jordan Reed managed to stay healthy. Reed is still 100 percent, so I expect him to have a big game, as the Steelers don’t really have the personnel to match up with him. I also like DeSean Jackson for once; Jackson is in his contract year and has packed on six pounds of muscle in an effort to stay healthy. He could have his best season in quite a while.

The one player who could be missing from the starting lineup might be Matt Jones, but it sounds like he’ll play. I don’t think there’s much of a drop-off to Robert Kelley anyway, so the Redskins figure to be clicking on all cylinders, especially in the wake of Bud Dupree’s injury. Dupree was expected to be a key pass-rusher for the Steelers this year, but he’s going to be out until mid-season.

RECAP: Remember how I said that I unloaded on the Chargers when I was in Las Vegas earlier this summer? Well, I made two big Week 1 wagers. Redskins +3 was the second.

I love Washington in this spot. Not as much as San Diego +7 at Kansas City, but this is pretty damn close.

This spread is absolutely ridiculous. How are the Redskins three-point home dogs versus the Steelers? That would mean Washington would be +9ish at Pittsburgh, meaning the public believes that the disparity between the Steelers and Redskins is close to that of Miami and Seattle. How is that even a thought process? Where is that logic behind that?

The Steelers are constantly overrated as a road favorite. They seldom cover in that role, especially when everyone is betting on them. That’s the case here. I said I would quit looking at trends for the most part, but Pittsburgh’s inability to cover when laying points in away contests is more of a reflection of how this team operates as well as the general public’s inability to correctly diagnose the Steelers. Pittsburgh, of course, is a public team, meaning there will always be great opportunities to bet against them. This is one of those moments.

Redskins +3 is simply too good to pass up, especially at +105 juice. It almost seems to good to be true, until I recall that nearly three-quarters of the betting action is coming in on Pittsburgh. As I’ve learned over the years, if the public is betting the Steelers, you go the other way. And I’m going five units the other way because there’s no way in hell that these teams are six points apart on a neutral field.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is an even public-sharp split. The Joes love the Steelers; the pros have been betting the Redskins pretty hard. That totally makes sense. The Steelers are a public team, so they’ll always attract action, but this line is way too high and the sharps see the clear value that’s available.

SATURDAY NOTES: As mentioned Thursday, the sharps are on the Redskins, which is why you now have to pay -120 or -125 for +3. That’s not surprising in the slightest, as this spread makes very little sense.

SUNDAY MORNING: All +3 -110s are gone, but +3 -115 is still available at Bovada. The sharps have been betting Washington heavily. I’d lock in +3 -115 if you didn’t already do so for +3 -110.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still very confident in the Redskins, especially with the sharps betting this down to +2.5 or even +2 in some places. The public is all over the Steelers, predictably, even though this line doesn’t make much sense.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.

The Steelers could be a bit focused on the Bengals, their Week 2 opponent. The Redskins, meanwhile, have to be offended that they’re home underdogs on Monday night despite being a playoff team last year.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

People are betting on the Steelers as favorites, you don’t say?

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 76% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Steelers are 17-28 ATS as road favorites since 2007.

Redskins are 8-16 ATS in September home games since 2001.

Opening Line: Steelers -3.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Redskins 26, Steelers 23
Redskins +3 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Under 50 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 38, Redskins 16

Los Angeles Rams (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0)
Line: Rams by 2.5. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Rams -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: 49ers -1.
Monday, Sept 12, 10:20 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Rams.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have some bald dude and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and aloof people like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to San Francisco, home of the 49ers and the gays like Matt Millen! In tonight’s game, the 49ers take on the St. Louis Rams. I’m Kevin Reilly, and I’m upset that summer is over because I have to hang out with turds like Herm for another year. Herm, when Mother gave me a birthday cake and told me to make a wish in front of all the clowns and balloons, I wished that you would die a horrible death, but that didn’t happen! Damn it, Mother!

Herm: BIRTHDAY WISHES AIN’T REAL! BIRTHDAY WISHES AIN’T TRUE! BIRTHDAY WISHES DON’T COME TO FRUITION! BIRTHDAY WISHES DON’T COME TRUE! BIRTHDAY WISHES ARE MADE UP! BIRTHDAY WISHES ARE FABRICATED! WANT TO KNOW HOW TO GET WISHES? I CAN TELL YOU HOW TO GET WISHES! HERM GONNA TELL YOU HOW TO GET BIRTHDAY WISHES! HERM WILL TELL YOU RIGHT NOW! HERM’S GONNA TELL YOU RIGHT NOW! HERM’S PREPARED TO TELL YOU RIGHT NOW! GET READY FOR IT! GET READY FOR HERM TO TELL YOU! HERE’S HOW TO GET REAL WISHES! HERE’S HOW YOU DO IT! YOU READY TO HEAR HOW YOU DO IT? ARE YOU PREPARED TO LEARN HOW TO DO IT? BECAUSE YOU DON’T LOOK PREPARED NOW! GOTTA LOOK PREPARED! GOTTA SEEM PREPARED! GOTTA START GETTIN’ PREPARED! GOTTA PREPARE! PREPARE FOR WHAT!? HERM FORGOT WHAT HE’S PREPARING FOR! HERM… uhh… umm…

Reilly: Shut up, idiot. Here’s the national anthem, and let’s see if Colin Kaepernick stands up. Nope! Sitting down! What a scumbag!!!

Emmitt: Marcus, why you saying that Connor Kaepernick a scumbag. This like saying he a bag with scum inside. And last time I check, human being cannot be a bag unless he go through a bag transplant. One of my friend went through a bag transplant, but he did not specify whether he want to be paper, plastic or rock bag, and now he a rock bag.

Wolfley: I DON’T KNOW EMMITT, COLIN KAEPERNICK LOOKS LIKE A ROCK BAG TO ME. I WOULD CALL HIM A ROCK BAG AND NOT A SCUMBAG, KEVIN. ROCK BAGS, FROM MY KNOWLEDGE, DON’T STAND UP DURNG THE NATIONAL ANTHEM EITHER SO THAT’S FURTHER PROOF THAT COLIN KAEPERNICK IS A ROCK BAG.

Reilly: What the hell are you idiots talking about!? What’s a rock bag!? There’s no such thing as a rock bag! The truth is, Colin Kaepernick is an anti-American who doesn’t appreciate what veterans like me did for the country! I was in the Boy Scouts, so I’m a veteran!

Tollefson: Kevin, you are one smart cookie. I like to pretend that I’m a veteran, too. Every Veterans’ Day, I go down to the local nudie bar and put on fake military gear, and the women there give me lap dances for free. Then, when no one’s looking, I drug them and bring them back to my place where I have them cook and clean naked for me. They pretend to be miserable doing so, but I know they’re happy inside because every woman really wants to pleasure men by cooking and cleaning naked for them.

Millen: Speak for yourself, Tolly. If anyone is cooking and cleaning for me, it’s a 100-percent USDA Man wearing nothing but a black thong. Then, when he’s not suspecting anything, I’d slide the black thong to the side and slide my kielbasa up his backside. What a wonderful experience, I do it every Tuesday. My dream is for this to happen every day. But back to the topic at hand, Colin Kaepernick… Colin Kaepernick needs to be destroyed. Do you know how many men wearing naval uniforms have defended our country? All of these naval officers with their broad shoulders, six-packs, tight butts… ohh… oOHHHH… OHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Charles Davis: Military men is a great topic, Matt. Let’s discuss some branches of the military, shall we? There’s the army, which is primarily used for ground-based warfare. Then there’s the navy, which deals with the sea. How about the air force? Do you know how they would attack, Dan? I’ll give you three guesses, Dan. Oh, you said attack underground, huh? Well, that’s…

Fouts: And here’s what you mean by three guesses. I have a chance to guess three times. That’s one more than two, one fewer than four, and five fewer than eight. If I guess and I’m correct, the game is over. That is what we call a victory for yours truly. And here’s what I mean by victory. It means that I win; that I am victorious. However, if I guess incorrectly, it means that one of my guesses has expired. But here’s the thing: I have two remaining. That’s one more than one, exactly two, one fewer than three, and 12.5 fewer than 14.5. That’s because I began with three guesses.

Herm: THREE GUESSES! THREE WISHES! HERM REMEMBERS! KEVIN, HERM REMEMBERS! KEVIN, HERM RECALLS HOW TO GET WISHES! THREE WISHES! IT REQUIRES A GENIE, KEVIN! GET A GENIE, KEVIN! GET A GENIE RIGHT NOW, KEVIN! GET A… uhh… umm…

Reilly: Oh, OK, let me pull a genie out of my a** then! Good idea! Hey, genie, can you make it so Herm decides to jump off a building and stops bothering me!? We’ll be back after this!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: All the talk surrounding the 49ers this week will be focused on two players who won’t even be in the lineup. Communist Kaepernick and Bruce “I like to beat up 70-year-old men” Miller are the pair, and while neither will have any sort of a direct impact on the field – barring a Blaine Gabbert injury – their foolish antics could cause a distraction, preventing the team from achieving a victory.

Granted, it was going to be difficult for the 49ers in the first place. The Rams have a stalwart defensive line that will cause major problems. San Francisco’s offensive front actually isn’t horrible, thanks to Anthony Davis’ return, but there are some liabilities, particularly at left guard, center and right tackle. Wait, what am I saying? The 49ers’ line is horrible. I take it back.

With Robert Quinn, Aaron Donald and company dominating the trenches, the 49ers won’t be able to establish Carlos Hyde at all. I’d say they’d create havoc for Blaine Gabbert, but the skittish quarterback isn’t going to attempt anything downfield anyway, instead focusing on short, ineffective passes. Still, it’s better than what Red Kaep would provide, which would be careless pick-sixes because he doesn’t know or care enough to diagnose defenses.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: It’s kind of sad that Case Keenum is the best the quarterback on the field in this matchup. Many expected Jared Goff to get the nod, including myself, but Goff was so atrocious in the preseason that he was demoted to No. 3 on the depth chart. Yes, for those of you who didn’t see, he was that horrible. I described it in my NFL Rookie Quarterback Grades page, if you want to check it out.

Keenum, despite possessing no physical talent, can at least manage the game well. He proved that last year, and he shouldn’t have an overly difficult time navigating through San Francisco’s defense. The 49ers have some decent players in their stop unit, especially if their two Oregon five-techniques come through, but it’s underwhelming for the most part. The pass rush is non-existent, while inside linebacker NaVorro Bowman took a huge step backward last year, as he wasn’t nearly the same coming off his knee injury.

Of course, the Rams will attempt to establish the run, first and foremost. It’s hard to imagine them failing to do so, as Todd Gurley has taken the reins as the best ~~quarterback~~ running back in the NFL. Gurley ripped through the 49ers’ defense in his only matchup against them last year, generating 133 rushing yards on only 20 carries. I expect something similar from Gurley on Monday evening.

RECAP: The public is pounding the Rams into oblivion. Contrarians may look at this game and be reminded of Vikings at 49ers last year. If you don’t recall, Minnesota was favored in the Week 1 late Monday night affair, yet San Francisco pulled the upset. However, there are two primary differences here. The first is that the Vikings were a mid-country team playing a very late game on the West Coast, which was just asking for trouble. The Rams won’t have that issue because they now reside in the Pacific Time Zone as well. The second is 49ers potentially being distracted for this contest by the antics I referenced earlier.

I originally planed on betting the 49ers. I was going to take them for 2-3 units, actually! That was about a month ago, but I’ve thought about it and I changed my mind. In fact, I’m picking the Rams, albeit for no units. San Francisco, simply put, is the worst team in the NFL, and thanks to a couple of horrible players, it now has to deal with this crazy distraction hanging over its head. Chip Kelly is a horrible coach, and I can’t imagine him guiding his team through this sort of mayhem.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t want anything to do with this game, which could end up being very weird. What I can tell you is that there is more money on the Rams than any other team this week, save for Green Bay. Most of it is public, but there’s some sharp action, too. It wouldn’t surprise if this hit -3 soon.

SATURDAY NOTES: If you plan on betting the 49ers – the pros haven’t touched them yet – note that guard Anthony Davis is out after leaving the team for unknown reasons. Thus, Los Angeles’ huge mismatch is even greater in its favor. Davis’ absence is yet another distraction for the worst team in the NFL.

SUNDAY MORNING: Still nothing from the sharps on the 49ers, and I don’t really see them betting the worst team in the league.

FINAL THOUGHTS: So disappointed in the Redskins. Anyway, I have no feel for this game, and the sharps don’t either, given that they haven’t really touched it. The public is on the Rams, of course. I don’t like the idea of laying points with them on the road, but the 49ers could be the worst team in the league that happens to be mired by distractions.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The 49ers could be distracted by Communist Kaepernick’s antics and Bruce Miller’s arrest. The Rams, meanwhile, go to Seattle and Carolina after this.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

No one wants any part of the crappy 49ers.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 75% (12,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: 49ers have won 15 of the last 21 meetings, excluding the 2012 tie.

Opening Line: Rams -2.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Rams 22, 49ers 16
Rams -2.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
49ers 28, Rams 0

Week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games
Carolina at Denver, San Diego at Kansas City, Green Bay at Jacksonville, Tampa Bay at Atlanta, Cleveland at Philadelphia, Buffalo at Baltimore, Oakland at New Orleans, Cincinnati at NY Jets, Minnesota at Tennessee, Chicago at Houston

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline: Chargers +240 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Moneyline: Bears +190 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline: Dolphins +415 (0.25 Units) — Incorrect; -$25

Moneyline: Lions +150 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$150

Moneyline: Redskins +135 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
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2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)