NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2026 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2026): 5-7 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2026): 6-9-1 (+$740)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2026): 10-6 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2026): 6-9-1 (-$795)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2026): 7-7-2 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2026): 7-7-1 (+$3,195)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2026): 7-7 (-$1,945)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2026): 8-6 (-$1,430)
2026 NFL Picks: 56-58-5 (-$1,605)

NFL Picks (2025): 153-138-4 (+$7,055)
NFL Picks (2024): 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Nov. 1, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 8 NFL Picks - Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

The Adventures of Tom Brady's Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my first book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would've happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: We had to wait until the inactives were announced last week to figure out how much we were going to bet on the Rams. That's because we had to know what Puka Nacua's status was. Nacua played, and the Rams predictably had an offensive outburst while trying to respond to their ugly loss to the Cardinals.

The Rams had an easy matchup last week, but this one's much tougher. The Chargers, despite their winless record, are 12th in defense. However, they're not as good against the run. They rank 18th versus the rush, so there could be an opportunity for Kyren Williams and Blake Corum to once again gain significant yardage on the ground.

This will obviously be a huge boon for Matthew Stafford, who has not been quite himself so far this year. With Nacua at his disposal, Stafford should be able to move the chains somewhat consistently, especially if his running game is picking up chunks of yardage on the ground.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Nacua's injury wasn't the only one the Rams suffered last week. They also lost Davante Adams and two defensive linemen. However, there is some potential good news on the horizon for the Rams, and that would be Myles Garrett's possible return.

Garrett might be back this week, and his presence would be huge for the Rams, who are eighth in defense. If the Rams have been that great defensively without Garrett, imagine how stout they'll be with him. They're third in quarterback pressures, which is not good news for the Chargers, especially if Garrett plays. The Chargers can't block because of injuries to their tackles and other offensive linemen. Justin Herbert is getting no protection against mediocre pass rushes, so imagine how much pressure he'll see against the Rams.

Herbert is also not getting any support from his running game. Omarion Hampton has been a huge bust this year, and it's not going to get any better against the Rams' No. 4 rush defense. Herbert will constantly be in long-yardage situations, which won't be ideal considering the Rams' Garrett-enhanced pass rush and the injury-ravaged receiving corps he's paired with.

RECAP: I don't understand this point spread. I have the Rams favored by 14.5 in this matchup. The Chargers are one of the worst teams in the league. They can't score at all. They can't block. They can't run. The receivers are hurt. And their quarterback doesn't seem to care. The Rams, conversely, are one of the better teams in the league despite their 3-4 record.

However, the computer model believes Rams -7 is correct, and I'm not sure how good of a spot this is for the host Los Angeles team. The Rams are coming off a blowout win, and while they're below .500, it's unclear if they'll be as focused as they were last week, even if Garrett returns.

What I worry about is a trend I brought up last week. I'm not big on trends, but this one feels legitimate. Going all the way back to 1989, winless teams (0-5 or worse) are 20-5 against the spread following a bye. This worked for the Dolphins last week, who won outright against the Jets.

Granted, there's a much larger talent disparity between the Chargers and Rams than there was between the Dolphins and Jets, but I'm not sure how focused the Rams will be given how aloof they've been in some games this year. I'm going to pick the Rams to cover, but I can't do so with too much confidence.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: First of all, I made a mistake. I made this spread Rams -14.5, but I gave Los Angeles 1.5 points for being at home, forgetting that this was a neutral-site affair. My spread is now -13.

Second, the Chargers didn't have Derwin James at Wednesday's practice, but Ladd McConkey was a full participant. So that's at least some good news for the Chargers.

SATURDAY NOTES: I've been thinking about this game a lot, and I'm going to make a medium-sized play on the Chargers. Am I crazy? Well, I already said maybe, but I think there is a legitimate reason to side with the Chargers in this game.

If you were burned by the Chargers prior to the bye, then I give you my condolences, and I can understand why you wouldn't want to pick them. However, I didn't like the Chargers prior to the bye. Outside of tailing sharp action one week, I didn't bet them after Week 2 once it was apparent that they were a dreadful team.

However, the Chargers have a lot of talent, and they can turn things around, especially with a week off to fix things. There are two things to consider.

First of all, the personnel will be better. Joe Alt and Ladd McConkey will both be back from injury, which is absolutely huge for this anemic offense. Second, the Chargers have the luxury of the bye, which has helped other winless teams in the past. This situation is no joke, as 0-5 teams are 20-5-1 against the spread following a week off.

Furthermore, the Rams are no sure thing. They have a lot of talent, but they aren't performing up to it. The Rams are also very banged up on both sides of the ball, and Matthew Stafford is not performing up to his 2025 level. Given how inconsistent the Rams have been, the argument could be made that they should be faded following a victory.

With the high number of bets coming in on the Rams, the Chargers seem like the correct play in this game, and I think there's a chance that they could win outright.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I'm going to post a hedge parlay here in a few minutes. It'll include the Rams.

HEDGE PARLAY: We're hedging our bets of three-plus units on better lines for hedging and middling purposes. The parlay is below, and it's boosted 50 percent on FanDuel.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Rams will have Trent McDuffie and Coleman Shelton, but that hasn't prevented the sharps from betting the Chargers. The best line - and the only spread at seven - can be found at BetRivers. You can get +7 -114.

The Motivation. Edge: Chargers.

The Rams are coming off a blowout win, and the Chargers are desperate for a victory.

The Spread. Edge: Rams.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -13.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -7.5.

Computer Model: Rams -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

I expected more on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 74% (89,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Jim Harbaugh is 14-11 ATS after a loss, excluding 2014.

Justin Herbert is 5-2-1 ATS as an underdog of 6+.

Opening Line: Rams -7.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Dome.