NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2026 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2026): 5-7 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2026): 6-9-1 (+$740)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2026): 10-6 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2026): 6-9-1 (-$795)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2026): 7-7-2 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2026): 7-7-1 (+$3,195)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2026): 7-7 (-$1,945)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2026): 8-6 (-$1,430)
2026 NFL Picks: 56-58-5 (-$1,605)

NFL Picks (2025): 153-138-4 (+$7,055)
NFL Picks (2024): 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Nov. 1, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 8 NFL Picks - Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

WEEK 7 RECAP: Our ATS picks in Week 7 were great. We were undefeated on selections four units or better. Despite this, we still lost 14 units. Why?

I'll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Drake Maye rushing ladder, 4 units (loss): This was the beginning of a ladder blood bath in Week 7. I don't know why Drake Maye barely ran in the second half of Thursday's game, but his unwillingness to do so really cost us.

Jaylen Warren rushing ladder, 5 units (loss): Mike McCarthy, as we very well know, is mentally challenged. He forgot that Jaylen Warren rushed for nearly 10 yards per carry in the opening half and opted to give the ball to Rico Dowdle in the second half instead.

Texans, 3 units (loss): The Texans apparently celebrated too much on the plane ride home from London. I thought we'd see a better effort from them because they were just 2-4, but apparently not. I should have known better, but anyone who lost money on this game should send an invoice to the Texans.

J.J. McCarthy passing ladder, 3 units (loss): J.J. McCarthy was unstoppable as a passer in the first half, but the Giants decided to just run the ball in the second half. That nearly cost them the game, but the Texans simply quit.

Colts, 4 units (win): It was nice to win our biggest bet during the 1 p.m. slate. The Colts were never not covering at Minnesota.

Jordan Love passing ladder, 5 units (loss): Jordan Love couldn't stop completing deep passes in the first half. You know when he stopped completing deep passes? The very second we bet him. Once we placed this ladder wager, Love couldn't do anything. It's almost like it's scripted.

Rams, 3 units (win): This bet was made when Puka Nacua was declared active. Never in doubt.

Seahawks, 5 units (win): What a great win! Our sides of three-plus units did very well this week, so it's a shame that the ladders backfired once again.

Cowboys, 4 units (win): This pick looked flimsy for a while, but it came through for us. Unfortunately...

Dak Prescott passing ladder, 5 units (loss): ...We gave it all back with another losing ladder. We lost about $2,400 on ladders in Week 7. Yikes. We made a killing with these last year, but they've been brutal outside of two games this season.

By the way, some of you may not have noticed that all but two picks each week will be in the Premium section. I truly apologize to those who are disappointed by this, but we had no choice; otherwise, we'd have to close up shop, and there'd be no picks anyway. Because of declining ad rates as a result of our terrible economy, and AI search results blocking new people from finding this WalterFootball.com, we needed to pivot in another direction to keep the website alive. We're not asking for much - just 30 cents per day - so if you want to help us, you can sign up for WalterFootball Premium. As a bonus, you won't see any ads. This website will be incredibly fast and won't crash at all as a result of any ads.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: What was thought to be a major injury for the Panthers didn't end up mattering last week. Jaelan Phillips, their top edge rusher, was sidelined, but his absence was irrelevant because Baker Mayfield threw just 11 passes, completing only seven of them.

Phillips' presence will mean much more against the Packers because they rely so heavily on their passing attack when they have the ball. Jordan Love has frequently hit his receivers with long bombs, so the Panthers will need to pressure Love as much as possible. That won't happen if Phillips is sidelined. If Phillips can play, the Panthers actually have a chance to contain Green Bay's offense. Carolina is ranked 14th against the pass and 11th in quarterback pressure rate. Those numbers would fall considerably if someone as talented as Phillips is unavailable.

The Panthers are worse against the run than the pass, ranking 20th in that regard. However, the Packers can't run the ball. They have the second-worst rushing offense in the NFL, and while things will be better with Josh Jacobs, he didn't exactly look like he was in shape last week.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Bryce Young has been so much better this year, but he had quite the hiccup last week. Young looked like he was playing like a rookie against the Buccaneers, turning the ball over constantly and failing to move the chains for most of the afternoon. However, considering how good Tampa Bay's defense has been this year, that shouldn't be too much of a surprise.

Most people don't recognize that the Buccaneers have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they do. They rank third in EPA. Two weeks before playing Carolina, they put the clamps on Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, and in the two games surrounding that contest, they limited the Packers to 17 points and held the Steelers to three points for most of the afternoon.

The Packers, conversely, are not as good defensively. They're stout against the pass, ranking fifth in that regard, but they're just mediocre when it comes to stopping the run. This will be very beneficial for the Panthers, as they'll be able to establish Chuba Hubbard, which they couldn't do against the Buccaneers' stalwart defensive line featuring Vita Vea.

With Hubbard going, Young will have better opportunities to move the chains and score points. It won't be an offensive outburst like we saw from the Panthers against the Lions, but Carolina should be able to score enough to keep pace with the Packers for most of the night.

RECAP: You know by now that I hate betting Thursday night games. These contests are often sluggish because teams simply can't recover on three days of rest. It's astonishing that Roger Goodell claims to care about player safety and yet makes teams battle each other every Thursday night. It'd be great if Thursday night games exclusively featured teams coming off byes, but Goodell really doesn't care if players get hurt.

At any rate, I'm likely to back the Panthers in this game. They were utterly embarrassed last week, and I don't think they're a bad team. I think they're likely to bounce back in this spot.

We're also receiving some nice value with Carolina because the Panthers were just +3 on the advance spread. The line has moved to +4.5 and then fell back to +3.5, so we're getting the major key number of three and a push with the slightly less important key number of four if a +4 pops up again.

We suspected that the Panthers would look ahead to the Packers because of the impending short rest, so I'm not factoring in their loss to the Buccaneers at all. The line should have remained +3 or maybe even +3.5 initially, but the move to +4.5 was completely unwarranted. Again, it has fallen, but that was sharp money taking the Panthers.

Our Week 8 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Packers will be without their center and a couple of linebackers, but they may have Matthew Golden available after he returned to a limited practice on Wednesday. The Panthers, meanwhile, will be without their top edge rusher, Jaelan Phillips. None of this changes my take on the game, which is a slight lean toward Carolina.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: We're using a 30-percent boost on DraftKings for our same-game parlay, which I've posted below.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Matthew Golden is active, but that's not enough for me to switch my pick. The sharps took Carolina at +4.5 and +4, but not at +3.5. The best line is +3.5 -105 at both BetMGM and MyBookie.ag. MyBookie: Get $500 in No-Sweat Bets or $2,000 Matched Deposit

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -3.

Computer Model: Packers -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Tons of action on the Packers early.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 53% (197,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Matt LaFleur is 65-53 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -4.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Clear, 56 degrees. Light wind.