NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 19, 2015

NFL Picks (Preseason 2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2015): 10-6 (+$940)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2015): 9-7 (-$895)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2015): 7-9 (-$870)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2015): 6-8-1 (-$360)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2015): 6-6-2 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2015): 5-8-1 (-$690)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2015): 4-9-1 (-$860)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2015): 5-8-1 (+$520)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2015): 8-5 (+$280)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2015): 6-8 (-$610)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2015): 5-6-3 (-$2,010)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2015): 6-10 (-$1,050)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2015): 8-7-1 (+$195)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2015): 11-5 (+$1,550)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2015): 7-7-2 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2015): 8-8 (+$390)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2015): 8-8 (+$910)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2015): 3-1 (+$580)

NFL Picks (2015): 129-136-9 (-$3,235)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Jan. 17, 12:25 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 19 NFL Picks – Sunday Games





Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) at New England Patriots (12-4)
Line: Patriots by 4.5. Total: 44.

Walt’s Projected Line: Patriots -7.
Saturday, Jan. 16, 4:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

WEEK 18 RECAP: I did not get off to a good start, losing two units with the Texans. That game was comprised of a series of unfortunate sequences, from the opening kickoff return, to the Brian Hoyer interception at the 2-yard line, to Bill O’Brien’s terrible play-calling, to J.J. Watt’s injury. The Chiefs didn’t do anything until the Texans quit; they led 13-0 because of Houston mistakes, so the game could’ve been 6-6 or something at the end of the third quarter, which was when the Texans started loafing on attempted tackles. I don’t consider Houston +3.5 a bad pick, especially when being unaware that Brian Hoyer would have a horrific deer-in-the-headlights demeanor.

The rest of the weekend was great, as I finished 3-1, +$580. Definitely no complaints about that!

WEEK 19 BETTING TRENDS – ROAD TEAMS: We just saw all four road teams win on wild-card weekend for the first time in NFL history. This wasn’t too much of a surprise, considering that three of them were favored, while the fourth, Green Bay, was just a one-point underdog.

They can’t possibly have success again this upcoming week, especially since they’re playing on the road once again, right? You’d think not, but history says otherwise.

Visiting teams coming off road victories in Week 19 are a very impressive 14-3 against the spread since 2005. They’re also 9-8 straight up. Two of the three non-covers were by a combined 4.5 points, so there was only one game (Ravens at Colts, 2009) where the road team had no chance.

The Ravens were the only team to qualify last year, and they covered and should’ve won outright at New England. The January before, we had the Saints, 49ers and Chargers all cover the same weekend.

So, why does this work? First of all, winning a road playoff game is difficult, so the team that does so is probably pretty good. Second, home-field advantage isn’t what it used to be. For the most part, opposing fans who happen to live in the city tend to buy up tickets from those who just want to sit at home and watch the game on their HD TVs. This is not the case in every city, but it would explain why Miami fans were cheering Malcom Floyd’s final curtain call in San Diego, for example.

We’ll see if the Chiefs, Packers, Seahawks and Steelers cover. It’s somewhat doubtful all four will, but history says that they at least have a chance to do so.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots lost to the Jets and Dolphins to close out the season. This surprised many, but it was easy to predict in hindsight – especially the New York defeat – given how banged up they were. The team had a skeleton crew on the field, especially on offense, so it’s no wonder that Bill Belichick deferred in overtime. He simply didn’t want to get Tom Brady killed behind a patchwork offensive line.

With that in mind, the most important thing about this game is the welfare of all of New England’s injured players. Will they be able to suit up? Well, as I mentioned in my NFL Power Rankings, an impeccable source revealed that Julian Edelman is 100 percent. Even more promising is the injury report, where Edelman and Sebastian Vollmer are listed as probable. Having both on the field will be huge. Vollmer will help protect against the Chiefs’ elite edge rushers, while Edelman, thanks to his shifty ability, matches up well with Kansas City’s tall corners. The same goes for Danny Amendola.

I don’t see the Patriots running the ball well at all. I wouldn’t even trust Steven Jackson versus a soft run defense, but the Chiefs are ninth versus the rush. Belichick knows how to adjust to this, however, so I expect him to have Brady fire the ball early and often. Rob Gronkowski figures to have a big game. The Chiefs are solid against tight ends, but defending Gronkowski is a completely different story.




KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: If I were Phil Simms, I might say that the tables have switched. The Patriots were seen as the banged-up team entering the playoffs, but the Chiefs have the most prominent injury heading into this game. I’m referring to Jeremy Maclin and his injured ankle, of course.

Maclin is currently listed as questionable, and there’s some speculation that he could play. This is not necessarily a positive, however. Maclin might just be a decoy, or he could leave early, spoiling Kansas City’s game plan in the process. I don’t expect him to be completely effective, which has to be music to Belichick’s ears. Belichick specializes in erasing one aspect of an opposing offense, so given that Maclin will either be out or hobbled, Belichick can focus on shutting down Travis Kelce.

If Smith can’t go to Kelce, how will the Chiefs move the chains effectively? The Patriots rank eighth versus the run, and they’ll be better with Dont’a Hightower having an extra week of rest to recover from a lingering knee injury. New England, which accumulated the second-most sacks during the regular season, will place heavy pressure on Smith, especially if Mitch Morse and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif are out with concussions.

RECAP: I know Kansas City supporters are tired of hearing this, but their team isn’t very good. Heading into the playoffs, the Chiefs had outgained their opponents during their 10-game winning streak by an average of just seven net yards. And it’s not like they’ve played tough opponents. They most recently beat the Raiders, struggled to put the Browns away, had some great fortune at Baltimore, nearly went to overtime against the Chargers, were in danger of trailing by nine or 13 versus Oakland before a Derek Carr pick-six, and so on.

But what about the playoffs? Wasn’t the 30-0 victory over Houston impressive? Not at all. Think about it logically. A deer-in-the-headlights Brian Hoyer put together the worst quarterbacking performance in NFL playoff history, yet the Chiefs were up just 13-0 at the end of the third quarter. Take away the opening kickoff return, and it would’ve been just 6-0. The game got out of hand simply because J.J. Watt got hurt and the Texans stopped trying, as evidenced by all of their missed tackles.

This Kansas City team is an obvious farce, so being able to sell high on them sounds like a lucrative proposition. Meanwhile, there’s a buy-low opportunity with the Patriots. Everyone is too focused on how they finished the season, but they’ll be getting some reinforcements just in time for the playoffs. They’re clearly the better team, but thanks to flawed public perception, they’re not favored by as much as they should be. This line should be around -7.

I’m going to bet three units on the Patriots. I’m hesitant to wager more than that, as there’s a chance that some of their returning players won’t be 100 percent. Plus, I’m not crazy about betting favorites, especially when it seems like the opposing quarterback could have a shot at a back-door cover. Perhaps New England on the moneyline (-230) is the right way to go.

WEDNESDAY THOUGHTS: There hasn’t been any indication whom the sharps like yet, but it’s too soon for that. The one thing I’d like to add is that a friend of mine informed me that Tom Brady’s completion rate is 10 percent better with Julian Edelman than without him. There’s some concern with Chandler Jones being hospitalized, but he’ll be fine for Sunday.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: This spread is available at -4.5 at 5Dimes right now, while other books are listing this as high as -5.5. I’d hop on -4.5, as it appears as though the number is moving up.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I thought about dropping a unit because of Rob Gronkowski’s injury concerns, but he’s active. This might just have been Bill Belichick BS, so he should be fine. I actually think the Chiefs have the greater injury concerns. Jeremy Maclin hasn’t practiced all week; both edge rushers are banged up; and two interior offensive linemen are out. I’m still three units on the Patriots, and the sharps are betting on them as well. This spread has risen to -6 in some places, and even Pinnacle is begging for Kansas City money, listing +5.5 +104.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on New England: 52% (95,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Worst Bye: Playoff teams coming off byes are 18-30 ATS since 2003.
  • Road Warriors: Playoff teams coming off a road win in Round 1 are 12-3 ATS in Round 2 since 2005.
  • Bill Belichick is 15-3 ATS against a team after losing to them by 14+ in the previous matchup.
  • Patriots are 30-16 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.
  • Tom Brady is 186-63 as a starter (140-104 ATS).
  • Tom Brady is 21-8 in the playoffs (13-16 ATS).
  • Opening Line: Patriots -4.5.
  • Opening Total: 45.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 19 NFL Pick: Patriots 23, Chiefs 13
    Patriots -4.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
    Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Patriots 27, Chiefs 20






    Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Arizona Cardinals (13-3)
    Line: Cardinals by 7. Total: 49.

    Walt’s Projected Line: Cardinals -4.
    Saturday, Jan. 16, 8:00 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: None.

    VEGAS UPDATE: The six top-bet teams each week were 50-49-3 against the spread heading into Week 18. There obviously wouldn’t be six teams for Week 18, but how would the top-bet sides fare? Take a look:

  • Seahawks -6 – Loss
  • Chiefs -3.5 – Cover
  • Steelers -2.5 – Loss

  • A solid 2-1 week for the books, with the one failed cover being a game where too many fluky things went against the side the books were rooting for.

    Here are the top bets in Week 19, as of Tuesday afternoon (51-51-3 ATS this year):

  • Broncos -6
  • Panthers -2.5

  • It’s hardly a surprise that the public is all over Peyton Manning, given that the media thinks he’s back to his Hall of Fame form for some reason. Meanwhile, Panthers -2.5 is begging for Carolina money.

    Once again, follow @walterfootball for updates.

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers was smiling on Sunday. This is significant because it’s not something we’ve seen from him in a long while. Rodgers was moping around for the most part during the Packers’ late-season swoon. Even when they beat the Cowboys and Raiders, Rodgers wasn’t overly enthusiastic. His demeanor was completely different in the victory over Washington, however.

    Some may argue that the level of competition is a factor. And sure, the Cardinals are a much better team than the Redskins. That much is obvious. However, there are two things to consider. First, the Redskins have a strong pass rush. They even accumulated more sacks than Arizona during the regular season. Green Bay’s ability to protect Rodgers during the final three quarters is important, especially when considering that the Cardinals brought him down on nine occasions in the first meeting. With Alex Okafor and Cory Redding out, that number will shrink substantially.

    Second, Washington’s secondary is atrocious, for sure. However, the Cardinals have issues of their own in the defensive backfield. Tyrann Mathieu, perhaps the best player in their secondary, is out. That didn’t end up mattering in the first game because Rodgers had no time in the pocket, but I expect things to be different in the rematch.




    ARIZONA OFFENSE: While I expect the Packers to have success moving the chains and scoring, the Cardinals figure to be just as proficient in doing so. They have one of the league’s most potent scoring attacks, after all.

    Meanwhile, Green Bay has some injuries that it’s dealing with. Both Sam Shields and Quinten Rollins are considered questionable. Having all hands on deck, especially in the secondary, is crucial versus the Cardinals and their lethal aerial attack. Carson Palmer is too good, and he has an unbelievable amount of weapons at his disposal. Of course, Palmer can just flip the ball to David Johnson, who tallied 127 total yards of offense back in Week 16.

    The Packers’ one chance to slow down the Cardinals’ scoring unit is to put pressure on Palmer. This was impossible last time because Arizona jumped out to a big lead, but Green Bay had the ninth-most sacks during the regular season, and the Cardinals definitely have some liabilities on the front line that can be exposed.

    RECAP: It doesn’t seem like the public can get Arizona’s 38-8 victory out of its head. There’s also a “yet, but…” element to the Packers, as in, “they beat the Redskins, yeah, but the Cardinals are so much better.”

    Well, as we’ve seen, when two teams clash again during the same season, results can be extremely different. The Seahawks, for instance, struggled in Minnesota last weekend after crushing them back in Week 13. And if you think five weeks is too far apart, recall what transpired in the two Carolina-Atlanta contests. The Panthers blanked the Falcons and then lost to them two weeks later.

    I feel as though something similar could happen here, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Packers won outright. Rodgers has gained more confidence in himself, his receivers and his offensive line. A positive attitude can go a long way, and I expect him to be so much better in the rematch against an Arizona defense missing Mathieu, Okafor and Redding.

    This number is simply way too high. Outside of the Packers being more competitive the second time around, there are a couple of other things to consider. First of all, here are the Cardinals’ results against other playoff teams this year: Lost to Steelers by 12; won against Seahawks by seven; won against Bengals by three; won against Vikings by three; lost to Seahawks by 30. As you can see, outside of the initial matchup against Green Bay, the Cardinals wouldn’t have covered this particular spread against any other postseason foes.

    Also, I think expectations have to be taken into account. Everyone thinks the Cardinals are going to win this game and perhaps make a run to the Super Bowl. That’s a ton of pressure for an inexperienced team. And yes, the Cardinals are inexperienced; at least this current regime is. Arizona, under Bruce Arians, has no playoff victories. Carson Palmer has never won a game in the postseason. And now he’s expected to triumph by seven? I’m not buying it at all.

    As you can tell, I love the Packers here. I feel as though an outright victory is a possibility, so I’m obviously smitten with getting a touchdown with them. Seven is just way too many points for the best quarterback in the NFL, who has definitely spent an unreal amount of time going over film to fix what went wrong in the first matchup.

    This is my January NFL Pick of the Month. If you’re with me, good luck, and Go Pack Go. If you’re fading me, well, screw you. But then again, I can’t blame you because I’m 2-3 in Picks of the Month this year.

    WEDNESDAY THOUGHTS: The best thing I heard today was that Ron Jaworski loves the Cardinals because Aaron Rodgers beating the Redskins was fool’s gold. I feel like this is the mentality of the public, which has forced the books into setting such a high spread.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Packers, but I’ve been waiting all day to see whom the sharps would be betting. The spread went up to -7.5 earlier in the afternoon, but I suspected it was phantom movement. That turned out to be the case, as the pros bet the Packers down from +7.5 during the 7 p.m. hour. It’s now -7 almost everywhere, including -7 +100 at Pinnacle, which is begging for Arizona money. I completely understand why the pros are taking the Packers. Seven points is just way too much for Aaron Rodgers, especially in a rematch in which he was completely humiliated in the first meeting. Good luck if you’re betting this with me.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Packers.
    A slight lean on the Cardinals.
  • Percentage of money on Arizona: 63% (90,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Worst Bye: Playoff teams coming off byes are 18-30 ATS since 2003.
  • Road Warriors: Playoff teams coming off a road win in Round 1 are 12-3 ATS in Round 2 since 2005.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 68-42 ATS since 2009 (9-6 ATS as a favorite of 12+).
  • Aaron Rodgers is 29-21 ATS on the road as long as he’s not favored by 6.5 or more points.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 12-11 ATS as an underdog.
  • Cardinals are 26-13 ATS in December/January home games since 2000.
  • Bruce Arians is 31-17 ATS as head coach of the Cardinals.
  • Cardinals are 3-12 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more the previous 15 instances. ???
  • Opening Line: Cardinals -7.5.
  • Opening Total: 50.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 19 NFL Pick: Cardinals 27, Packers 26
    Packers +7 (7 Units – January NFL Pick of the Month) — Correct; +$700
    Over 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Cardinals 26, Packers 20




    Week 19 NFL Picks – Sunday Games
    Seattle at Carolina, Pittsburgh at Denver





    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 19 NFL Picks – Sunday Games



    2025 NFL Mock Draft - May 21


    Fantasy Football Rankings - May 9


    NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


    NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2023): 10-6 (-$415)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 3-1 (+$460)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 1-1 (-$40)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2023): 7-9 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 18, 2023): -$15

    2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-4, 20.0% (-$2,480)

    2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-135-7, 50.4% (-$7,735)
    2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 43-38-3, 53.1% (+$520)
    2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 28-27-1, 50.9% (-$3,110)
    2023 Season Over-Under: 139-128-3, 52.1% (+$100)
    2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,630

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
    2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
    2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
    2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
    2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
    2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
    2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
    2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
    2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
    2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
    2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
    2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
    2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
    2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
    2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
    2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
    2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
    2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
    2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
    2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
    2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
    2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
    2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
    2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
    2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
    2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
    2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
    2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
    2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
    2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
    2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
    2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
    2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
    2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
    2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
    2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
    2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
    2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
    2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
    2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
    2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
    2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
    2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
    2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
    2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
    2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
    2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
    2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
    2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
    2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
    2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,420-3,152-195, 52.1% (+$21,170)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,106-983-56 (52.9%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 549-485-25 (53.1%)
    Career Over-Under: 2,853-2,829-74 (50.3%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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