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Vegas betting action updated Jan. 18, 2:10 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball
Green Bay Packers (13-4) at Seattle Seahawks (13-4)
Line: Seahawks by 8.5. Total: 44.5.
Walt's Calculated Line:
Sunday, Jan. 18, 3:00 ET
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
WEEK 19 RECAP:
Nothing to complain about in terms of the divisional weekend. I won all of my bets, going 3-1. I missed the Broncos-Colts pick, but that was for zero units. That game had me completely confused going into it, but I should've taken the Colts, given that I was well aware that Peyton Manning was hurt (I mentioned it countless times). But like Cam Newton once said, hindsight is 50-50.
Both spreads this weekend are relatively large. I was able to unearth some more interesting numbers.
For instance, did you know that favorites of seven or more are just 3-9 against the spread on Championship Sunday since 1997? This kind of makes sense, as a team that makes it this far shouldn't be getting that many points.
Here's another, which I mentioned a couple of weeks ago: Non-divisional, same-site teams struggle to beat the same opponent twice, going 14-28 ATS since 2000. This also applies to the Seahawks.
The books won tons of money in Week 18. This past weekend wasn't as lucrative, as there were no highly bet teams, but they still cashed in because the Broncos lost. Lots of bettors had Denver on a teaser, so Indianapolis' straight-up victory was a nice win for Vegas.
Another week, another stack of hate mails. Some guy named Jerry Jackson posted this on my Facebook wall:
I'm used to people just making fun of me when I make bad selections, but this a**hole made fun of how some of my readers/Facebook friends looked, and he even criticized the appearance of their girlfriends/wives. What's funny is that Jerry Jackson initially had this as his profile picture...
...Until someone pointed out that Jerry Jackson Photoshopped his face onto that body, as you can find a picture of that body via a Google images search. Pathetic. Jerry Jackson then changed his picture to what he has now - an Asian dude wearing a Starbucks uniform, hence his statement about having other sources of income other than Starbucks. I don't think "rich uncle" counts, Jerry...
Jerry Jackson continued to talk trash throughout the weekend, citing that he bet on the Patriots and Panthers. Oops! Jerry even increased his wager from $100 to $300 on the Panthers following the New England loss. He would've said he dropped $330 if he actually did wager on the game. As you can tell by what I'm writing now and what I posted in that thread, I don't believe him for one second. You have to sell WAY too much coffee to bet $500 (or more accurately, $550) on just one day's worth of football games.
This, by the way, was the thread Jerry Jackson created after his New England bet lost:
"Why are you still here? Go make my scone you peasant" and "$11 an hour?!? Holy s***t! I bet you lease a Bentley!" won the thread, though Jerry embarrassing himself was still great.
In short, Jerry Jackson lost an imaginary $500, humiliated himself on countless occasions, Photoshopped his face onto some built dude's body, and showed how immature he was by making fun of people's wives/girlfriends - and all of this happened on one weekend!
Oddly enough, I find myself wondering if his tears will make the scones taste any better.
I'll be posting NFL Picks all day Wednesday. Follow me at @walterfootball
GREEN BAY OFFENSE:
We all know how awesome Seattle's defense is. Or do we? I was disappointed in this stop unit during last week's win over Carolina. The Seahawks were able to prevail, but they allowed a ton of yardage to Cam Newton. If Newton were an above-average quarterback in terms of accuracy, the Panthers may have won.
Of course, Newton's success had a lot to do with Byron Maxwell's injury. The starting corner opposite of Richard Sherman had to leave the game with a shortness of breath, forcing Tharold Simon into the lineup. Simon struggled immensely, as Newton targeted him almost every single play. Fortunately for the Seahawks, it appears as though Maxwell will be able to suit up. Having him in the lineup will be huge, as Aaron Rodgers would've fully exploited that matchup.
Speaking of Rodgers, Seattle's matchup against him begs the question: When was the last time the Seahawks battled a top-flight quarterback? The answer is Tony Romo, back in Week 6. They lost that game, 30-23. This is a different Seattle team than the one that sputtered in the middle of the season - it lost to the Rams the following week - but the fact remains that this secondary hasn't truly been tested in quite sometime. That's why it's imperative for Maxwell to be in the lineup.
It would really help the Packers if Rodgers were mobile, but it doesn't seem as though that's the case. They'll try to establish the run with Eddie Lacy, but running on the Seahawks is usually difficult. Seattle did surrender 95 rushing yards on 19 carries to Jonathan Stewart and the Panther backs, so there is a glimmer of hope.
Russell Wilson was arguably the top quarterback of the divisional round, as he was flawless on third downs. He did a great job of moving the chains versus a tough Carolina defense. The Packers' stop unit isn't nearly as dominant, so logic states that Wilson will be just as good; if not better.
Green Bay's defense struggles in many regards. It hasn't been able to cover No. 1 receivers all year, for example. They limited Dez Bryant last week, but in doing so, they left everyone open. The Packers won't have to worry about covering a top Seattle wideout, but that's only because Wilson loves to spread the ball around. He can buy enough time in the pocket with his legs to find open receivers downfield, though that might be a bit challenging in this matchup, given that Green Bay has produced the 10th-most sacks in the NFL this year (45).
Fortunately for Wilson, he won't have to do all the work on his own. The Panthers were able to clamp down on Marshawn Lynch with their superb defensive front, but the Packers can't contain the rush nearly as well. They just surrendered 138 yards on the ground to the Cowboys, and it could've been much worse had DeMarco Murray not fumbled the ball on a play in which he had the open field in front of him.
There's one other thing that needs to be noted, and that would be Green Bay's lack of success against scrambling quarterbacks. The Packers are a combined 0-5 against Wilson and Colin Kaepernick over the past three years, and they haven't really faced any other mobile signal-callers, unless you want to count a banged-up Robert Griffin in the second week of the 2013 season. Dom Capers has had an entire year to figure this out, but the same could be said last year when Green Bay began and ended the season with losses to Kaepernick.
This is a tough one to call. The Seahawks are definitely the better team, they're dominant at home, and they have a nice matchup against the Packers, who can't contain mobile quarterbacks. However, this spread is right where it should be, and the fact that the Packers already lost in Seattle earlier this year plays in their favor, given the aforementioned trend about same-site revenge situations.
I think the Seahawks' strength of victory during their winning streak also has to be questioned. Their wins over the 49ers were perceived to be huge, but San Francisco had lots of issues. They had a blowout victory over the Cardinals, who ultimately produced fewer than 80 net yards of offense in their playoff loss. They beat the Panthers, but they were just 7-8-1, and their wins down the stretch came against several bad teams like the Saints, Browns and Buccaneers.
I'm picking the Packers, but I'm not betting them. I could see them pulling the upset, or I could see Seattle just jumping all over them in the second half and ultimately winning by 20. Nothing would really surprise me, but I have a slight lean toward Green Bay.
I was hoping this number would rise to +9, which would make me consider a very small bet on the Packers. The line rose throughout the week and especially over the past 24 hours because the sharps have bet on the Seahawks. I guess they're pessimistic about Aaron Rodgers today, but I just think this number is too high. I'm not very confident about this contest, however.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Percentage of money on Green Bay: 58% (78,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Aaron Rodgers is 57-35 ATS since 2009 (9-5 ATS as a favorite of 12+).
Aaron Rodgers is 24-19 ATS on the road as long as he's not favored by 6.5 or more points.
Aaron Rodgers is 10-10 ATS as an underdog.
Seahawks are 32-12 ATS as home favorites since 2007.
Opening Line: Seahawks -7.5.
Opening Total: 46.5.
Weather: Rain, 51 degrees. Mild wind, 16 mph.
Week 20 NFL Pick: Seahawks 23, Packers 17
Packers +8.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Under 44.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 28, Packers 22
Indianapolis Colts (13-5) at New England Patriots (13-4)
Line: Patriots by 7. Total: 52.5.
Walt's Calculated Line: Patriots -8.
Sunday, Jan. 18, 6:30 ET
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: Patriots.
A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week's jerks entry is Chris Christie, Clorox and Gay Jokes.
Oh, and if you missed it: the Adventures of Tom Brady's Haircuts and the seventh season of Emmitt on the Brink are complete.
This week on CBS, we're going to have Jim Nantz and Phil Simms calling the shots instead of Charles Davis, the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here's what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:
Reilly: Welcome to New England, home of the Patriots, the most cheating team in the NFL! Guys, we need to discuss how much the Patriots cheat. Bill Belichick used Spygade to defeat my Eagles, and now they're up to their old tricks. They used some dirty tactics against the Ravens, and I was rooting for the Ravens because Joe Flacco is from Philly, and any Philly guy is OK with me as long as they don't root for the stinking Cowboys like that a**hole Chris Christie.
Emmitt: Paxter, the rule guys in the National League of Conferences say that what Bill Billick do is not unlegal. In the rulebook, he say that all player have to tell the referee whether or not they legible or illegible. The guy on the Patriot tell the ref he legible which mean he not unlegal to catch the football!
Reilly: That's bulls***, Emmitt, and you know it! I've plotted against Belichick, and I'm going to blow him up. I secretly strapped a bomb to Herm Edwards, and when Herm talks to Belichick after the game, I'll press the trigger, and they'll both be blown to smithereens! Ha! Take that! E-A-G-L-E-S- EAGLES!
Emmitt: And you hate both Brian Belichick and the Herm, so you killin' two stone with one bird!
Herm: NOT TWO STONES! NOT THREE STONES EITHER! NOT MULTIPLE STONES! ONLY ONE STONE! A SINGLE STONE! NO MORE THAN ONE STONE! BUT MORE THAN ZERO STONES! CAN'T HAVE ZERO STONES! CAN'T HAVE NO STONES! BUT HERM JUST USED A DOUBLE NEGATIVE! DOES THAT MEAN THERE CAN BE ZERO STONES!? BUT HERM JUST SAID THERE ARE MORE THAN ZERO STONES! SO IF THERE ARE ZERO STONES AND MORE THAN ZERO STONES, THAT'S A PARADOX! HERM CREATED A PARADOX! HERM CREATED A HOLE IN THE SPACE-TIME CONTINUUM! HERM HAS DESTROYED THE UNIVERSE! HERM HAS RIPPED APART THE FABRIC OF OUR EXISTENCE! HERM NEEDS TO GO REPAIR THINGS!
Reilly: Where are you going!? You're supposed to talk to Belichick after the game so I can kill you both! Argh, why is life so unfair!? All I wanted to do was kill Herm and Belichick at the same time. Is that too much to ask!?
Kim Jong-un: I know how kirr Birr Berichick! Find two experience tark show host and terr them they have to interview Berichick! Give them poison strip they prace on hand, and then when they shake a Berichick hand, Berichick get a poison and die srow death!
Tollefson: That was the plot of the movie you tried to cancel in America, only you were the one being assassinated instead of Belichick!
Kim Jong-un: No, this rear rife, it going to work in rear rife, that was just stupid movie that girr from gym say she no want to see with me because I ugry!
Tollefson: Whatever. Kevin, what I would do is dress up like a woman and seduce Belichick. Then, when he invites you back to his place, and asks you to cook and clean naked, you take one of his frying pans and bash him over the head with it! Some woman nearly did that to me once because I robbed her grandmother, but she was weak and I was able to overpower her and then bury her body in my basement. Then, I killed her grandmother. You are a man, so you can overpower Belichick!
Fouts: It seems like everyone is devising ways to kill Bill Belichick! I was able to find that out by using one of my eight senses and hear what you guys were talking about. It's either killing Bill Belichick or frying up dead women! Here's how I would do the former, which is the first thing in a sequence, as opposed to the last thing, which is called a latter. It's not a ladder, which you use to climb, but this latter has two Ts instead of three Ds. And 3D is something entirely different, but let's get to the Belichick murder. Belichick is old, so there's an obvious choice here. Go away and let time pass by. Lots of time. You can pass the time by doing something fun, like climbing a mountain, reading a book, or flying a spaceship to my home planet, Zurgatron! Then, come back and see Belichick. Maybe it's 15 years later, which is a century and a half. Belichick could be dead by then. If not, he'll be much older. If it's the latter - not ladder - go away and come back in maybe 10 years. If he's dead then, you've accomplished your goal. If not, leave again and wait a while and then come back a third time. Rinse, repeat, and you'll eventually kill Bill Belichick!
Reilly: I DON'T WANT HIM TO DIE OF OLD AGE, IDIOT! I WANT TO KILL HIM NOW!
Charles Davis: Kevin, there are plenty of ways to kill Bill Belichick, Kevin. You can try throwing him in front of a bus, Kevin. How about throwing him in front of a train, Kevin? What about throwing him off a building, Kevin? How about tying him up and throwing him off a pier, Kevin? What about throwing him into an oncoming motorcycle, Kevin? Let's not forget throwing him into a volcano, Kevin! What about doing something with a plane, Kevin? Can you think of something to do with a plane, Kevin? Oh, you think you can kill Belichick by tickling him on a plane, Kevin? That's not correct, Kevin! Oh, you think painting a nude picture of him on the plane is the answer, Kevin!? Think again, Kevin! I can see that you're about to give up, Kevin! You throw him off the plane, Kevin! It was so obvious; I'm surprised you didn't get it, Kevin!
Reilly: I'LL THROW YOU OFF A PLANE AND I'LL PAINT A NUDE PICTURE OF YOU TOO AND THROW THAT OFF THE PLANE BECAUSE YOU'RE SO F***ING ANNOYING, A**HOLE! We'll be back after this!
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I listed the Colts as one of my overrated teams this week because they are getting heavy praise for beating the Broncos. That's what happens when any team slays a
perennial playoff choker future Hall of Famer like Peyton Manning. However, the win over Denver wasn't nearly as impressive as everyone is making it out to be. The Broncos were leaking serious oil down the stretch. They were blown out against the Bengals, who didn't have a healthy A.J. Green at their disposal. Manning's arm was falling off; the offensive line sucked; and the defense hadn't been able to stop the run toward the end of the year.
It'll be so much more difficult for the Colts to contain Tom Brady, who is playing at an extremely high level right now. The offensive line also performed well this past week, surrendering just two sacks, which is a fantastic number, given that it was going up Baltimore's incredible defensive front. If Brady's line holds up the same way, that's going to be terrible news for Indianapolis; the Colts have an inconsistent pass rush to begin with, so Brady could have a clean pocket for most of the afternoon.
Indianapolis is already screwed with a tough matchup in this game. The team is going to have an extremely difficult time with Rob Gronkowski. I know you can say that with most teams, but the Colts have been especially putrid against tight ends this year. Gronkowski caught four balls for 71 yards and a touchdown in the Week 11 matchup against Indianapolis. The score was one of 10 opposing tight ends secured against the Colts in 2014.
Gronkowski didn't have to do much in the prior meeting because Jonas Gray ran all over the Colts. Gray gashed them for 201 yards and four touchdowns, though he has just 20 carries since. He hasn't been a part of the offense because he overslept one practice, but perhaps Bill Belichick will activate him for this contest. If not, LeGarrette Blount and Brandon Bolden can similarly expose the NFL's 21st-ranked run defense in terms of YPC (4.20).
INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Watching Andrew Luck's ascension has been fun, but he needs to take one final step, which is beating the Patriots. He has not been able to do this yet. He's 0-3 against Belichick, getting blown out all three times.
Belichick is a defensive mastermind, so it's not a surprise that he has owned Luck. Belichick has had similar success over Manning throughout his tenure as New England's head coach, and he has usually prevailed when he's maintained premier defensive weapons like this. Having defensive backs like Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner and Devin McCourty has allowed Belichick to do creative things with his fronts, and he confused Luck quite well in the previous matchup, limiting the third-year quarterback to 10-of-20 passing for 130 yards in the second half.
Luck is coming off a great game, but again, the Denver team was leaking oil. Aqib Talib was awful, while the defensive front couldn't get any sort of pressure on Luck. The Patriots should be able to get after the quarterback - they finished with more sacks on the year than Denver - and Revis will not have the same type of performance that Talib had.
The Colts will also find it difficult to run the ball on New England. Justin Forsett just enjoyed a nice outing, but Baltimore's offensive front is much more forceful than Indianapolis'. Even when factoring in Forsett's output, the Patriots have surrendered just 3.88 YPC to their previous four opponents.
RECAP: The Patriots are my top play this week. The primary reason why I like New England so much is that this spread doesn't make much sense to me. The Broncos opened -7 versus the Colts, and then the line rose to -9. Yet, this is just -6.5? That either says Denver is half-a-point better than New England, which is far from true, or it's a major overcompensation based on Indianapolis' victory at Mile High. It was a nice win, but as I wrote earlier, it wasn't that impressive, given how much the Broncos struggled down the stretch. The Patriots are a much better team, and their second-half rally over a Baltimore team that had their number showed how great this team is.
Belichick's dominance over Luck is another factor. Luck was able to beat the Broncos at home last year, so he already showed that he could defeat Manning and John Fox. However, he has not been able to have any sort of success over New England, losing the prior three matchups by scores of 59-24, 43-22 and 42-20. The latter loss came at home, so now Luck will somehow have to venture into Foxboro, where his team was slaughtered twice during his tenure, and get revenge just nine weeks later? I don't see it happening.
I've been wavering on three or four units for this game. My only concern is that the sharps have taken the Colts, though they may have done so on principle. If this spread drops to -6, I may increase this pick to a four-unit wager, as we'll suddenly have lots of line value with New England; my calculated spread for this game is -8.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The Seahawks' miracle comeback was not good for the Patriots, as the square teaser of the week was Seattle -1.5, New England -1. Still though, I like the Patriots for three units. I was hoping this spread would drop to -6, but there hasn't been much sharp support on Indianapolis. The professional gamblers have a slight lean on the Colts, but it's almost even. I just think the Patriots are the superior team. People seem to be making too much of the Colts' victory last week. The Broncos were a decaying team, and they would've lost to any AFC playoff team, aside from perhaps Cincinnati, so I wasn't as impressed.
The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.
The Patriots have owned Andrew Luck, so I'm not sure if that'll mess with Luck's head at all.
The Vegas. Edge: Colts.
Slight lean toward the Patriots.
Percentage of money on New England: 64% (75,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
Patriots are 29-16 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.
Tom Brady is 173-59 as a starter (131-96 ATS).
Tom Brady is 19-8 in the playoffs (11-16 ATS).
Opening Line: Patriots -7.
Opening Total: 53.5.
Weather: Cloudy, 40 degrees. Light wind.
Week 20 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Colts 17
Patriots -7 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
Under 52.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Patriots 45, Colts 7
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Props to be posted here
Fantasy Football Rankings - June 15
2022 NFL Mock Draft - June 8
NFL Power Rankings - May 12
NFL Picks - Feb. 8
Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2020): 1-0 (+$560)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2020): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2020): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2020): 1-0 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2020 plus 2020 props): +$4,735
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,995-2,761-179, 52.0% (+$19,655)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 957-859-49 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 452-396-23 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,463-2,416-66 (50.5%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 45-29-1 (60.8%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
Cowboys: 11-5 (2014-19: 47-50)
Bears: 6-11 (2014-19: 45-48)
Bucs: 9-10 (2014-19: 44-45)
49ers: 8-8 (2014-19: 53-44)
Eagles: 8-8 (2014-19: 55-46)
Lions: 9-6 (2014-19: 53-42)
Falcons: 9-7 (2014-19: 55-45)
Cardinals: 10-6 (2014-19: 45-50)
Giants: 3-13 (2014-19: 52-41)
Packers: 14-4 (2014-19: 54-46)
Panthers: 13-3 (2014-19: 47-52)
Rams: 6-12 (2014-19: 53-41)
Redskins: 7-8 (2014-19: 47-48)
Vikings: 9-7 (2014-19: 51-45)
Saints: 7-11 (2014-19: 49-50)
Seahawks: 8-9 (2014-19: 43-56)
Bills: 12-7 (2014-19: 52-42)
Bengals: 9-5 (2014-19: 42-52)
Colts: 8-7 (2014-19: 50-45)
Broncos: 9-7 (2014-19: 45-48)
Dolphins: 12-4 (2014-19: 47-46)
Browns: 8-9 (2014-19: 46-44)
Jaguars: 4-11 (2014-19: 41-55)
Chargers: 8-6 (2014-19: 46-49)
Jets: 8-8 (2014-19: 50-40)
Ravens: 6-11 (2014-19: 48-47)
Texans: 10-5 (2014-19: 48-47)
Chiefs: 15-4 (2014-19: 56-50)
Patriots: 6-10 (2014-19: 55-53)
Steelers: 7-10 (2014-19: 56-43)
Titans: 10-7 (2014-19: 49-47)
Raiders: 7-9 (2014-19: 43-52)
Divisional: 43-48 (2011-19: 405-394)
2x Game Edge: 66-61 (2011-19: 213-210)
2x Motivation Edge: 47-30 (2011-19: 347-288)
2x Spread Edge: 44-34 (2011-19: 61-55)
2x Vegas Edge: 26-22 (2011-19: 320-335)
2x Trend Edge: 20-13 (2011-19: 250-228)
Double Edge: 27-21 (2011-19: 122-107)
Triple Edge: 6-4 (2011-19: 21-18)