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Vegas betting action updated Jan. 11, 12:35 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball
Go to Week 19 NFL Picks - Saturday Games
Dallas Cowboys (13-4) at Green Bay Packers (12-4)
Line: Packers by 6. Total: 52.5.
Walt's Calculated Line:
Sunday, Jan. 11, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: None.
A reminder that Jerks of the Week
for this week is up, so just click the link. This week's jerks entry is More Christmas Shopping.
Also, I have an update in my Spam Mail Responses
Oh, and if you missed it: the Adventures of Tom Brady's Haircuts
and the seventh season of Emmitt on the Brink
We may never know if the NFL fixed the Cowboys-Lions game or not, but the league has already admitted to making two terrible calls at the end of that game (the pass interference and then the blatant hold on Ndamukong Suh on the fourth-and-6 conversion to Jason Witten). Completely dismissing something crooked when an absurd amount of money is at stake is incredibly naive and crazy. It seemed like the NFL did everything in its power to ensure Dallas would prevail to set up this highly rated matchup, which, as I mentioned, will strengthen the NFL's bargaining position for the next contract. But was it intentional? I don't know, but it sure seemed like it was.
Nevertheless, Tony Romo still had to lead his team to victory, and even though he got an awful non-call to go his way on the Suh hold, he was able to hit an open Witten and then find Terrance Williams in the end zone for the decisive touchdown. Romo came up big when it mattered most, so perhaps that momentum will carry over into this game. Romo struggled for most of the afternoon against the Lions' smothering defense, but he'll actually be able to connect with Dez Bryant this time around. Detroit had the personnel to take Bryant away, but the Packers surely don't, as they've surrendered big performances to top receivers all year.
The Packers don't play the run particularly well either. DeMarco Murray also had issues against the Lions, who had the NFL's No. 1 run defense. Green Bay isn't terrible against the rush, or anything, but the team ranks 17th in terms of YPC (4.09). Unlike last week, Murray will be able to open things up for Romo, who should be able to have better pass protection as a consequence.
GREEN BAY OFFENSE:
The Packers also figure to have an easy time moving the chains. The Lions were able to advance the ball quite easily for half the game last week, and they were doing so on the road. Green Bay has a superior scoring attack and will have the luxury of playing in Lambeau, where the team averaged a whopping 39.8 points this season. Good luck, Dallas defense.
I don't see what the Cowboys could possibly do to slow down Aaron Rodgers, outside of hiring Ndamukong Suh to stomp on his foot again. Dallas is 23rd against the pass in terms of YPA, and only four teams produced fewer sacks than them this year, so Rodgers will have all the time he needs to find an open Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb downfield.
Rodgers won't have to do all of the work, however, as Eddie Lacy figures to have a big outing. The Cowboys finished in the bottom 10 of rush defense this season, and while they were better at stopping the run to close out the season, they still looked a bit helpless against Joique Bell and Reggie Bush last week. The thing is, they won't even be able to concentrate on Lacy with Rodgers connecting on deep passes, so the Packers should be able to crack the century mark on the ground, as long as they don't fall behind early because of turnovers/carelessness.
This spread seems a bit too high, and the sharps agree, as they've bet down this number from +7 to +6. We're not getting as much value on the Cowboys now, but I still think they're the right side. The rule with Dallas is, you fade the team as a favorite and bet it as an underdog. The latter is the case here, and amazingly, the underdog is 53-25 against the spread in the Cowboys' previous 78 games.
But doesn't Green Bay's home dominance cancel that out? It does, but only a bit, I think. Rodgers is prolific at Lambeau during the regular season, but he has lost twice at home during the playoffs. It's not much of a sample size, but for some reason, the homefield advantage just hasn't translated to January football. Add in that Rodgers could re-injure his calf at any moment, and Dallas just seems like the right play.
I actually think the Cowboys could win outright. I'm taking the Packers to ultimately prevail by a couple of points, but it's almost certain that this will be a close contest that could go either way.
I'm locking in Cowboys +6 for two units on Bovada. This spread is dropping, as this is the No. 1 sharp play of the week.
As predicted, this spread continued to drop. The pros are all over Dallas. I think the Cowboys cover as well, and I could see them winning outright. I'm scared of wagering heavily against Rodgers in Lambeau though, so I'm keeping this at two units.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Percentage of money on Dallas: 52% (96,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Worst Bye: Playoff teams coming off byes are 17-25 ATS since 2003.
The underdog is 53-25 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.
Cowboys are 23-12 ATS as an underdog since 2009.
Tony Romo is 13-24 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (3-8 ATS as an underdog).
Packers are 25-14 ATS in December home games since 2000.
Packers are 25-13 ATS at home since 2010.
Aaron Rodgers is 57-34 ATS since 2009 (9-5 ATS as a favorite of 12+).
Opening Line: Packers -6.5.
Opening Total: 53.
Week 19 NFL Pick: Packers 27, Cowboys 24
Cowboys +6 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
Under 52.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Packers 26, Cowboys 21
Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at Denver Broncos (12-4)
Line: Broncos by 9. Total: 54.
Walt's Calculated Line: Broncos -6.
Sunday, Jan. 11, 4:30 ET
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: Broncos.
This week on CBS, we're going to have Jim Nantz and Phil Simms calling the shots instead of Charles Davis, the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here's what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:
Reilly: Welcome to Denver, home of the Denver Broncos where they will be battling the Baltimore Colts. Guys, we have a special guest with us today. I don't know who it is yet. The producers told me I'd freak out if I found out. I hope it's Nick Foles, so I can ask him to be my best friend! He's about to come through the door in 3 ... 2 ... 1 ... and it's ... GOVERNOR CHRIS CHRISTIE, A.K.A. THE SPAWN OF SATAN AHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
Chris Christie: Hey guys, how's it hanging?
Emmitt: Chris Christian, from the bottom of my heart and stomach, it is my pleasurement to say that is a true honor - an honor so true it is very far from the false - to meet a U.S. government. I never metted a U.S. government before except when my Cowboy team go to the house that's white and meeted Bill Clinton Portis but not a U.S. government; he a U.S. president.
Chris Christie: It's my pleasure to be with you in this fine booth. I like going to football games.
Reilly: Cut the crap, Christie. You have betrayed all Eagles fans. You are supposed to be an Eagles fan because you're the governor of New Jersey, but you like the stinking Cowboys! You're a rodent! You're nothing but a roach! You scumbag! I'm going to kill you in your sleep! No, I'm going to kill you when you're awake so you'll feel my pain! E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!
Chris Christie: I don't really like the Cowboys, Kevin. Jerry Jones invited me to his suite, and when I was reluctant to go, he said he would give me coupons for Dunkin Donuts.
Herm: HOW DID HE GET HERE!? HOW DID HE GET HERE!? THE COWBOYS JUST PLAYED! THE COWBOYS PLAYED RECENTLY! CHRIS CHRISTIE WAS AT THAT GAME! HE WAS WITH JERRY! CHRIS WAS WITH JERRY! THEY WERE TOGETHER! NOT TOGETHER LIKE HOMOSEXUALS BUT TOGETHER IN THE OWNER'S BOX! NOT THAT THERE'S ANYTHING WRONG WITH THAT! AND THE COWBOYS JUST PLAYED! IT WAS AN HOUR AGO! THE COWBOYS PLAYED AN HOUR AGO! EVEN LESS THAN AN HOUR! AN HOUR IS 60 MINUTES! AND THERE ARE 60 SECONDS IN A MINUTE! SO TO FIGURE OUT HOW MANY SECONDS IN AN HOUR, YOU MULTIPLY 60 TIMES 60! BUT I DON'T HAVE A CALCULATOR! HERM NEEDS A CALCULATOR! OR HERM NEEDS RYAN FITZPATRICK'S SON! MAYBE RYAN FITZPATRICK'S SON IS A CALCULATOR! BUT HE DIDN'T HAVE AN ON BUTTON! OR AN OFF BUTTON! OR AN IN BUTTON! BUT WAIT THERE'S NO IN BUTTON ON A CALCULATOR! WHY WOULD THERE BE AN IN BUTTON! Why... uhh... umm...
Tollefson: Herm brings up a good point, Christie. How were you in two places at once? Because I'd love to tell my wife to cook and clean naked at home and then tell my mistress to cook and clean naked in my apartment at the same time. If you have any secrets, please share.
Chris Christie: That's where the coupons for Dunkin Donuts came in handy. I bought 50,000 doughnuts a couple of weeks ago, and I had the best scientists build a teleportation machine out of them. Unfortunately, I ate half the machine upon my arrival, so I'm stuck here. It's a good thing I still have some doughnuts in my pocket... DOUGHNUT, NOM NOM NOM NOM!!!
Reilly: Can't anyone tell this is a farce? Chris Christie's here just because he hates the Eagles so much and wants me to suffer. He's probably going to tear up the Nick Foles poster I carry with me at all times for good luck. Quick, Kim Jong-un, kill him!
Kim Jong-un: I no a kirr very powerfur man! Chris Christie probabry going to become next president, so he probabry going to make my Internet go away rike Obama did in retariation for threat I say gonna be rike nine-ereven! And if I have no a Internet, I can a no go on Facebook and downroad picture of hot girr who say she no want to go out with me because she say I am a ugry. Prease, Chris Christie, I just want go onrine and downroad picture of hot girr!
Fouts: That's not very difficult to do, Kim. Here's what you would do in that situation. First, go to the FaceBook Web site. You might have the urge to type in BookFace because those words are in alphabetical order, but that would be a mistake. Next, you need to register. You need to input your first name, your last name and e-mail. To get your first name, go get your birth certificate and copy what it says for your first name. Then, do the same thing for the last name. Do not confuse last name with middle name; contrary to popular belief, the middle name is the name that's in the middle, and the last name is the last in sequence, going from left to right; not right to left. Much like the sun rises in the West, but does not set in the East. Next, input your e-mail address. Now, you might look up your e-mail address in the phone book, but that'll only say your home address. This is different from home page on your Internet browser; one is where you sleep, and the other is where you spend the most time online, but I'm not sure which is which. Once you've completed all your tasks, you'll have to wait for your confirmation e-mail, which could take a while, so now would be a nice time to either take a nap, go work out, or paint your ceiling.
Chris Christie: NOM NOM NOM, DOUGHNUT, NOM NOM NOM, YOU GUYS TALK TOO MUCH ME HUNGRY, NOM NOM, WAIT WHAT'S THIS I SEE KIELBASA IN THAT GUY'S POCKET!!!
Millen: That's my kielbasa, and it's for a 100-percent USDA Man, you fiend!
Chris Christie: ME NEED KIELBASA ME NEED EAT KIELBASA AND DOUGHNUT SAME TIME FOR SUPER POWER NOM NOM NOM NOM!!!
Millen: No, my precious kielbasa!
Charles Davis: Kevin, while Christie is eating Matt's kielbasa, Kevin, let's review all of the doughnut types, Kevin, OK, Kevin? Let's begin with chocolate glaze, Kevin. How about Boston cream, Kevin? What about cinnamon sugar, Kevin? Let's not forget powdered sugar, Kevin! Have you tried an iced doughnut, Kevin? You'll never guess what's inside, Kevin! Oh, you guessed ice, Kevin!? That's incorrect, Kevin! Oh, your next guess is...
Chris Christie: NOM NOM NOM NOM ME FINISH KIELBASA AND DOUGHNUT, NOW TIME FOR SUPER POWER!!!
*** A beam of light appears, and Jerry Jones has teleported into the booth. ***
Chris Christie: I've used my doughnut-kielbasa power to transform Jerry Jones' matter into energy and bring him here, guys! Now he can give me more Dunkin Donuts coupons!
Jerry Jones: Howdy, gentlemen, and here are your good ole coupons as mentioned, Chris, all 20,000 of them, as we agreed to earlier, a deal's a deal.
Reilly: LIFE F***ING SUCKS! JERRY JONES AND CHRIS CHRISTIE IN THE BOOTH, AND KIM JONG-UN IS TOO MUCH OF A F***ING P***Y TO KILL EITHER OF THEM!!! AHHHHHHHHH!!!! We'll be back after this!
DENVER OFFENSE: No one in the national media is bold enough to say it, but Peyton Manning did not look good down the stretch. His arm has been decaying to the point where it looked like it was about to fall off throughout the final month of the season. Beginning in the second half of the Kansas City game, when he didn't even complete a third of his passes, all he's done is heave weak ducks downfield, many of which have either fallen incomplete or been intercepted. Since that point, Manning has thrown three touchdowns and turned the ball over eight times, all while maintaining a YPA Of 7.4 or worse in three of his five final games.
The Broncos were able to go 4-1 in those contests in spite of Manning. They've run the ball extremely well with C.J. Anderson, as opposing defenses are still terrified of what Manning could do downfield if he were healthy. The Colts will likely have similar issues; they're 21st against the run, so I don't see them stopping Anderson. They did a good job of containing Jeremy Hill this past weekend, but they didn't exactly have to worry about Mohamed Sanu, Brandon Tate and Greg Little torching them downfield. Being concerned about Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas is a completely different story.
Of course, there's always a chance that the week off was able to do wonders for Manning's tired arm. If so, the one hope the Colts have is to pressure Manning as much as possible. The way to beat him in the past was to put frequent heat on him without blitzing. The Colts finished 12th in the NFL in sacks (41), and Denver's offensive line has had issues with pass protection, so perhaps they'll be able to bring down Manning once or twice without exposing their secondary.
INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Andrew Luck was fantastic against the Bengals. He was nearly flawless, and his team would've won by a much wider margin than 16 if T.Y. Hilton hadn't dropped passes and the team didn't have some miscues in the red zone. It could've easily been 41-10 instead of 26-10. However, the Colts will need to be much cleaner in this game against a tougher opponent.
The big difference will be pass protection. The Bengals haven't been able to put pressure on the quarterback all year, as they had the fewest sacks in the NFL. The Broncos, on the other hand, were in the top half of that department, thanks to Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. I don't trust the Colts' pass protection at all, so the Broncos could get heat on Luck early and often. Luck will definitely squirt out of the pocket and run for some considerable gains, but he won't have the constant time to find Hilton and his other weapons downfield.
What's more obvious is that the Colts won't run the ball nearly as well. Dan Herron and an alien force named Zurlon Tipton were able to effectively move the chains on the ground against a Rey Maualuga-less Bengal team, but doing so versus the Broncos will be radically different. While Cincinnati was 23rd against the run (4.28 YPC), Denver is fifth (3.63). The Broncos had issues containing the rush toward the end of the season, but that's because they were missing stud linebacker Brandon Marshall. The third-year pro will be back in the lineup this week.
RECAP: This is the one game I won't be betting on this weekend. I have no idea what to do with it. I've flip-flopped back and forth with this pick. Here's my thought process:
I think the Broncos will cover because they're definitely the superior team. Their running game and defense are so much better than what Indianapolis has, especially with Marshall back. Manning's arm sucks now, but he doesn't have to do much because Denver has the edge everywhere else.
I think the Colts will cover because Manning, who has a decaying arm, has a history of choking in the playoffs. Even if the Broncos go up big, Luck is fully capable of leading the charge for a back-door cover, which is what he did in the opener, back when Manning wasn't choking or throwing ducks.
It's such a close call. I'm taking the Broncos (for now) because the Colts just haven't done that well against the top teams this year. I'm definitely not betting it though because there could easily be a back-door score.
FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread soared up to -9, as the sharps have been pounding the Broncos pretty heavily. I think Denver is the right side, but if I were betting them, I'd be scared to death of an Andrew Luck backdoor cover at the very end. Luck's just too good, and his number is way too high. I'm not going to bet this game, but good luck to you if you do.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Colts.
Slight action on the host.
Percentage of money on Denver: 60% (74,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Colts.
Worst Bye: Playoff teams coming off byes are 17-25 ATS since 2003.
John Fox is 8-4 ATS in the playoffs.
Peyton Manning is 5-12 ATS in the playoffs (excluding games against terrible QBs: Jake Plummer, Trent Green, Rex Grossman).
Peyton Manning is 3-7 SU vs. 3-4 Defenses in the playoffs (6-4 SU vs. 4-3 Defenses).
Peyton Manning is 5-7 SU when the temperature is 32 degrees or colder. ???
Opening Line: Broncos -7.
Opening Total: 53.
Week 19 NFL Pick: Broncos 34, Colts 24
Broncos -9 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Over 54 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Colts 21, Broncos 13
Week 19 NFL Picks - Saturday Games
Ravens at Patriots,
Panthers at Seahawks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Props to be posted here
NFL Picks - Jan. 16
2021 NFL Mock Draft - Jan. 13
Fantasy Football Rankings - Jan. 11
2022 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 15
NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 14
2020 College Football Recruiting Rankings - April 14
2020 NBA Mock Draft - Sept. 27
Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2020): 1-5 (-$1,430)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2020): 0-2 (-$575)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2020): 0-2 (-$855)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2020): 2-3-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 18, 2020): $0
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-2, 50.0% (-$135)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 132-123-6, 52.6% (+$3,280)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 43-42-3, 50.6% (-$2,650)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2020 Season Over-Under: 137-119-6, 53.5% ($0)
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$375
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,989-2,760-179, 52.0% (+$13,585)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 953-858-49 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 452-396-23 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,459-2,413-66 (50.5%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 44-29-1 (60.3%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
Cowboys: 11-5 (2014-19: 47-50)
Bears: 6-11 (2014-19: 45-48)
Bucs: 7-9 (2014-19: 44-45)
49ers: 8-8 (2014-19: 53-44)
Eagles: 8-8 (2014-19: 55-46)
Lions: 9-6 (2014-19: 53-42)
Falcons: 9-7 (2014-19: 55-45)
Cardinals: 10-6 (2014-19: 45-50)
Giants: 3-13 (2014-19: 52-41)
Packers: 12-4 (2014-19: 54-46)
Panthers: 13-3 (2014-19: 47-52)
Rams: 5-12 (2014-19: 53-41)
Redskins: 7-8 (2014-19: 47-48)
Vikings: 9-7 (2014-19: 51-45)
Saints: 7-10 (2014-19: 49-50)
Seahawks: 8-9 (2014-19: 43-56)
Bills: 10-7 (2014-19: 52-42)
Bengals: 9-5 (2014-19: 42-52)
Colts: 8-7 (2014-19: 50-45)
Broncos: 9-7 (2014-19: 45-48)
Dolphins: 12-4 (2014-19: 47-46)
Browns: 7-9 (2014-19: 46-44)
Jaguars: 4-11 (2014-19: 41-55)
Chargers: 8-6 (2014-19: 46-49)
Jets: 8-8 (2014-19: 50-40)
Ravens: 5-11 (2014-19: 48-47)
Texans: 10-5 (2014-19: 48-47)
Chiefs: 12-4 (2014-19: 56-50)
Patriots: 6-10 (2014-19: 55-53)
Steelers: 7-10 (2014-19: 56-43)
Titans: 10-7 (2014-19: 49-47)
Raiders: 7-9 (2014-19: 43-52)
Divisional: 43-47 (2011-19: 405-394)
2x Game Edge: 63-60 (2011-19: 213-210)
2x Motivation Edge: 45-30 (2011-19: 347-288)
2x Spread Edge: 42-33 (2011-19: 61-55)
2x Vegas Edge: 25-22 (2011-19: 320-335)
2x Trend Edge: 18-13 (2011-19: 250-228)
Double Edge: 27-21 (2011-19: 122-107)
Triple Edge: 5-4 (2011-19: 21-18)