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Vegas betting action updated Jan. 11, 12:35 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball
Go to Week 19 NFL Picks - Sunday Games
Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at New England Patriots (12-4)
Line: Patriots by 7. Total: 47.5.
Walt's Projected Line:
Saturday, Jan. 10, 4:30 ET
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: Patriots.
WEEK 18 RECAP:
I won last weekend (2-2, +$160), but I was an idiot. I've been saying all year how terrible Andy Dalton is, and how much I was looking forward to fading him in the playoffs, so what did I do? I wagered three units on Dalton. Derp dee derp dee doo.
Fortunately, I won five units with the Lions, though my life did flash before my eyes when Matthew Stafford fumbled the first time on the final drive. In that split second, I thought the Cowboys would ultimately kick the front-door field goal and go up seven for one of the most bulls*** covers of all time, so I suppose I need to thank Demarcus Lawrence for making my five units happen.
All four spreads this week are relatively large. I was able to unearth some interesting numbers, with some help.
First, the 10.5 in Seattle seems like a lot until you consider: Non-home underdogs of 10-plus are 4-7 against the spread since 2000, but 1-7 ATS if you remove the 2007 Patriots (thanks, Matvei). The public and media believe that the Panthers can keep this game close, but the historical data says otherwise.
Meanwhile, Baltimore is another road team expected to do well. Perhaps they'll have more success. Visiting teams coming off road victories in Week 19 are a very impressive 13-3 against the spread over the past 10 years. The Ravens are the only team to quality this year, unfortunately. Last January, we had the Saints, 49ers and Chargers all cover the same weekend.
I'll be posting NFL Picks all day Wednesday. Follow me at @walterfootball
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE:
If you listen to Bill Simmons, you may have heard his defense of the Patriots' recent lack of success against Baltimore. He cited that New England didn't have Rob Gronkowski at full strength (or at all) in the previous two playoff matchups, while the one in 2009 featured one of Bill Belichick's worst Patriot teams in his tenure.
All of this is accurate. However, it doesn't mean that the Patriots won't have trouble scoring on the Ravens. Baltimore has surrendered just five touchdowns and no 100-yard games to tight ends this year, thanks to its superb linebacking corps. It's impossible to stop Gronkowski, but the defense can at least prevent him from having an all-time performance.
The Ravens' weakness, of course, is in the secondary. However, Ben Roethlisberger couldn't take advantage of that liability because Le'Veon Bell was out. With Bell missing, Roethlisberger didn't have his top pass-protecting running back, and was sacked five times as a consequence. The Patriots may have similar issues, though not because of the running back position. The offensive line has been a problem for most of the season, and it was the primary reason why the Patriots couldn't move the ball on the Jets in their Week 16 matchup. Like Baltimore, New York had a weak secondary that Brady couldn't exploit. Brady neither had the time in the pocket, nor the downfield threats to throw to. I have no idea how New England's offensive line will handle Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata.
The Patriots didn't have all that much success running the ball against the Jets either, as they were limited to 75 yards on the ground. The Ravens are third against the rush, so it's likely that New England will have major issues moving the chains in this contest.
Of course, it's fair to wonder how the Ravens will convert first downs as well. They did so quite easily in the wild-card victory, but that was against a Steeler secondary that's nearly as bad as their own. The Patriots obviously don't have those same sort of issues on their back end, as Darrelle Revis, Devin McCourty and company are fully capable of erasing the two Smiths.
The Patriots are also very difficult to run against. They aren't as great at stopping the rush as Baltimore is, but they still rank in the top 10 of that department, surrendering 3.90 YPC to the opposition. They've even been better lately, giving up 3.43 YPC to their previous four opponents. Justin Forsett hasn't been the same back lately, so it's likely he'll be limited to fewer than 50 rushing yards again.
As you can tell, the Ravens will need all of the help they can get. That means having left tackle Eugene Monroe return from injury. Monroe has been out for a while, but it appears as though he's due back. He practiced Tuesday, which wasn't the case last week. Having him in the lineup will be huge for Flacco, and that's obviously good news for the Ravens, who have enjoyed Flacco's clutch quarterbacking over the past five playoff games.
The Ravens seem like they're the right side. They usually thrive in this underdog role, especially in the playoffs, while the Patriots haven't had the best track record in recent postseasons. New England hasn't played a good football game in a month either - it trailed the Jets in the fourth quarter, for crying out loud - and yet the team is laying a touchdown, which could be difficult to cover in a defensive struggle.
Meanwhile, Baltimore is catching fire at the right time. This Raven team is nothing like the one that lost at Houston; think more of the squad that dominated in Miami and New Orleans. Also, it has to be noted that the Ravens, who will be welcoming Monroe back, have the aforementioned Week 19 road trend in their favor.
The one concern I have is that the Ravens have suddenly become such a public team. Every single talking head is saying how scared the Patriots are of Baltimore. When everyone in the media believes one thing, the opposite typically happens. I initially planned on betting the Ravens big, but I'm scaling it back after realizing that all of the talking heads are sharing the same thought process.
It appears as though this spread will continue to drop, as there is sharp action on the Ravens. I'm going to lock this in for two units at +7.
This is a weird game. There are questions about whether the Ravens have the Patriots' number, and that undoubtedly has to anger Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. However, most people are saying New England will win. The sharps have picked the Ravens at a small percentage, while the public is split on this contest. I still like Baltimore for two units, but I can see how it would be viewed as a sucker bet.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Patriots have to be pissed about hearing that they're scared of Baltimore. Then again, the Ravens aren't intimidated by New England.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Percentage of money on New England: 53% (69,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
Road Warriors: Playoff teams coming off a road win in Round 1 are 11-3 ATS in Round 2 since 2005.
Worst Bye: Playoff teams coming off byes are 17-25 ATS since 2003.
Patriots are 29-15 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.
Tom Brady is 172-59 as a starter (131-95 ATS).
Tom Brady is 18-8 in the playoffs (11-15 ATS).
Opening Line: Patriots -7.
Opening Total: 49.
Week 19 NFL Pick: Patriots 23, Ravens 20
Ravens +7 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
Under 47.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Patriots 35, Ravens 31
Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) at Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
Line: Seahawks by 12. Total: 40.
Walt's Projected Line: Seahawks -11.
Saturday, Jan. 10, 8:00 ET
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
VEGAS UPDATE: The sportsbooks had a pretty successful weekend. The public was heavily favoring both the Steelers and Cowboys in the latter games, yet both failed to cover. The NFL also made out like bandits, ensuring that the Cowboys made it to this weekend to battle the Packers, which should produce massive ratings. This is a big win for the league. I know one of Bill Simmons' young and up-and-coming writers argued that the NFL already has its TV deals set in stone, but it's shortsighted not to recognize that a game that produces crazy ratings like Packers-Cowboys strengthens the NFL's bargaining power for the next deal.
Once again, follow @walterfootball for updates.
HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails. Some guy named Mike Manning e-mailed me constantly throughout the weekend. Well, most of the weekend. Here's a sample:
"Dallas is hot and is at home." How could I be so stupid to wager five units on the Lions with such sound analysis!? I'm so idiotic!
What's funny is that this guy once claimed to be a professional bettor. Now, to be fair, he also warned me about the Bengals...
This guy is all about betting teams at home. That, and fading gingers. Can you blame him, though?
Mike, the professional bettor, gave me crap after that Cincinnati loss...
But what about the Lions? Not a thing! I haven't heard from him since prior to kickoff of that game. Mike's probably sitting in his mom's basement right now, trying to figure out how in blazes a "hot" team couldn't cover at home.
I also got some hate mail from Facebook...
CAROLINA OFFENSE: As bad as Ryan Lindley was last week, it's amazing that the Panthers nearly failed to cover the spread. Cam Newton simply left points off the board. He missed numerous open receivers throughout the evening, and a couple of those completions would've gone for long gains and/or touchdowns. Newton was also wincing in pain during the contest, especially in the second half, when he also began displaying poor body language. Newton can be great when he's cocky and healthy, but when he's hurt and/or frustrated with his poor throwing, things can quickly spiral out of control.
It's hard to imagine Newton having a rebound performance in this contest. He'll be going up against the Legion of Boom, which will erase Kelvin Benjamin and force him to look elsewhere. Newton may also have trouble running around; the Seahawks play Colin Kaepernick twice per year and go up against Russell Wilson every day in practice. They know how to handle mobile quarterbacks, so they won't exactly be caught off guard when Newton takes off.
Meanwhile, Jonathan Stewart has been a big reason for Carolina's recent success. Stewart, however, won't have much of an opportunity in Seattle. The Seahawks are ranked second against the run overall in terms of YPC (3.54), and they've been so much better in that regard over the past four weeks of the season, limiting the opposition to 2.82 YPC. In fact, only one team has gained more than 50 rushing yards on them ever since Bobby Wagner returned from injury.
SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Panthers have also been terrific against the run lately. They've limited their previous three opponents to an average of 46.3 rushing yards per game. However, there's reason to believe that Carolina won't have as much success in that regard in this contest, and it goes beyond the fact that Marshawn Lynch is so much better than any other running back they've faced recently (Kerwynn Williams, Jacquizz Rodgers, Terrance West). It's that Star Lotulelei has been ruled out for this game with a broken foot.
Losing Lotulelei is huge. Not only is he a force against the run; he's also a decent pass-rusher for a man his size. Lynch's matchup is definitely upgraded, especially with center Max Unger due back. Lynch will wear down Carolina's defense with his strong running and eventually burst for big gains in the second half.
This will obviously be a big boost for Wilson, who will also be aided by Unger's return and Lotulelei's absence. Wilson will do what he usually does; move around in the pocket and either scramble for big gains or buy enough time so that he can eventually locate open receivers downfield.
RECAP: The Seahawks are my top pick this week. Most of the people on TV seem to believe the Panthers can challenge Seattle, citing that Carolina always gives the Seahawks issues. Sure... in Carolina! This is the first time Newton and this Panther group will be heading up to Seattle. Things will be completely different up there.
Also, it doesn't seem as though people are making enough about the Unger-Lotulelei dynamic. The Seahawks, already the superior team, have a major advantage in the trenches now, where football games are typically won.
A couple of situational trends are on our side as well. I already mentioned that double-digit underdogs have not performed well in recent playoff history. The Seahawks will also have Circadian rhythms benefiting them. I just find it unlikely that a vastly inferior East Coast team will be able to compete against arguably the best team in the NFL in a West Coast night game. This contest could get out of hand rather quickly.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Argh, I didn't think the spread would soar like this. The sharps are pounding the Seahawks and have driven this spread up. Lock it in now.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps continued to push this spread up, as it's -13 or -13.5 at almost every book. Nothing has changed for me, as I love Seattle to demolish Carolina.
The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.
This Panther team has never played in Seattle's loud stadium, especially at night.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Percentage of money on Seattle: 58% (65,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
Worst Bye: Playoff teams coming off byes are 17-25 ATS since 2003.
Seahawks are 31-12 ATS as home favorites since 2007.
Opening Line: Seahawks -10.5.
Opening Total: 40.5.
Week 19 NFL Pick: Seahawks 27, Panthers 3
Seahawks -12 (5 Units) -- Correct; +$500
Under 40 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 31, Panthers 17
Week 19 NFL Picks - Sunday Games
Dallas at Green Bay,
Indianapolis at Denver
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 19 NFL Picks - Sunday Games
NFL Picks - Jan. 16
2021 NFL Mock Draft - Jan. 13
Fantasy Football Rankings - Jan. 11
2022 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 15
NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 14
2020 College Football Recruiting Rankings - April 14
2020 NBA Mock Draft - Sept. 27
Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2020): 1-5 (-$1,430)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2020): 0-2 (-$575)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2020): 0-2 (-$855)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2020): 2-3-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 18, 2020): $0
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-2, 50.0% (-$135)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 132-123-6, 52.6% (+$3,280)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 43-42-3, 50.6% (-$2,650)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2020 Season Over-Under: 137-119-6, 53.5% ($0)
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$375
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,989-2,760-179, 52.0% (+$13,585)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 953-858-49 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 452-396-23 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,459-2,413-66 (50.5%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 44-29-1 (60.3%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
Cowboys: 11-5 (2014-19: 47-50)
Bears: 6-11 (2014-19: 45-48)
Bucs: 7-9 (2014-19: 44-45)
49ers: 8-8 (2014-19: 53-44)
Eagles: 8-8 (2014-19: 55-46)
Lions: 9-6 (2014-19: 53-42)
Falcons: 9-7 (2014-19: 55-45)
Cardinals: 10-6 (2014-19: 45-50)
Giants: 3-13 (2014-19: 52-41)
Packers: 12-4 (2014-19: 54-46)
Panthers: 13-3 (2014-19: 47-52)
Rams: 5-12 (2014-19: 53-41)
Redskins: 7-8 (2014-19: 47-48)
Vikings: 9-7 (2014-19: 51-45)
Saints: 7-10 (2014-19: 49-50)
Seahawks: 8-9 (2014-19: 43-56)
Bills: 10-7 (2014-19: 52-42)
Bengals: 9-5 (2014-19: 42-52)
Colts: 8-7 (2014-19: 50-45)
Broncos: 9-7 (2014-19: 45-48)
Dolphins: 12-4 (2014-19: 47-46)
Browns: 7-9 (2014-19: 46-44)
Jaguars: 4-11 (2014-19: 41-55)
Chargers: 8-6 (2014-19: 46-49)
Jets: 8-8 (2014-19: 50-40)
Ravens: 5-11 (2014-19: 48-47)
Texans: 10-5 (2014-19: 48-47)
Chiefs: 12-4 (2014-19: 56-50)
Patriots: 6-10 (2014-19: 55-53)
Steelers: 7-10 (2014-19: 56-43)
Titans: 10-7 (2014-19: 49-47)
Raiders: 7-9 (2014-19: 43-52)
Divisional: 43-47 (2011-19: 405-394)
2x Game Edge: 63-60 (2011-19: 213-210)
2x Motivation Edge: 45-30 (2011-19: 347-288)
2x Spread Edge: 42-33 (2011-19: 61-55)
2x Vegas Edge: 25-22 (2011-19: 320-335)
2x Trend Edge: 18-13 (2011-19: 250-228)
Double Edge: 27-21 (2011-19: 122-107)
Triple Edge: 5-4 (2011-19: 21-18)