NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2014): 9-4-2 (+$255)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2014): 5-9-1 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2014): 10-4-1 (+$330)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2014): 4-11 (+$320)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2014): 9-4 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2014): 9-4 (-$90)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2014): 8-6 (+$90)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2014): 7-8 (+$100)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2014): 5-11 (-$1,390)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2014): 8-8 (-$130)

NFL Picks (2014): 109-109-6 (-$1,275)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 15, 5:20 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 15 NFL Picks – Early Games

New York Jets (2-11) at Tennessee Titans (2-11)
Line: Jets by 3.5. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Titans -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Titans -1.
Sunday, Dec. 14, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Jets.

We’re going to have new features on the site shortly, beginning with something we published recently. You can go here to Create Your Own Power Rankings – and once you do, people will be sending you hate mail, just like they do for my NFL Power Rankings.

Also, check this out: We have a new Matchup Breakdown, featuring game logs, experts’ picks and more.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Chris Ivory has been featured more than Chris Johnson has this year, but I expect that to be different in this contest. That’s because Johnson will be out for revenge against his former team, and like Percy Harvin last week, Johnson will be giving maximum effort. I expect Rex Ryan and Marty Mornhinweg to feed the ball to him early and often.

I normally would be pessimistic about the Jets’ chances with Johnson handling the ball so much, but the Titans are a train wreck. They can’t stop any rushing attack, as they’ve surrendered 97 or more yards on the ground to each of their previous seven opponents.

The Titans also suck at stopping aerial attacks, so you have to like Geno Smith’s chances, despite Percy Harvin’s absence. Smith performed well following a terrible opening pick-six, and he figures to have plenty of success against a pass defense that has gotten lit up by Eli Manning, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Mark Sanchez the past three weeks. The Titans’ secondary sucks, and so does the pass rush; they haven’t registered a single sack the past two weeks.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Zach Mettenberger is done, so Jake Locker will start again. Locker has been inconsistent throughout his career, but he might be the Titans’ best option – or perhaps, the worst option, if you’re talking about draft positioning.

Locker won’t get the protection from his battered offensive line, and he’ll probably have to deal with Muhammad Wilkerson this week, though the All-Pro five-technique could be limited with a toe injury. However, if Locker can somehow buy himself some time with his mobility, he’ll be able to torch a New York secondary that made Teddy Bridgewater and Charles Johnson look unstoppable last week.

RECAP: The Titans are in one of the best spots I’ve ever seen. It doesn’t matter though because I’m not wagering a single cent on them. You don’t make money betting on the worst team in football. Let’s just move on.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, the Titans are in the perfect spot – even Muhammad Wilkerson is out for the Jets – but the players may have quit on Ken Whisenhunt.

SUNDAY NOTES: There’s barely any support for the Titans, which is why this spread moved to -3.5 in some books. Anyone who bets this game is nuts.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

The Jets have the Patriots next week, so they might be flat off an overtime loss.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Who wants to bet on Tennessee right now?

Percentage of money on New York: 68% (13,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Jets 20, Titans 19
Titans +3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jets 16, Titans 11

Denver Broncos (10-3) at San Diego Chargers (8-5)
Line: Broncos by 5. Total: 48.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Broncos -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -2.
Sunday, Dec. 14, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Broncos.

This is a reminder to get your pick in for the Survivor Pool. Of the 3,289 entries that began the year, only 30 people remain with three weeks to go. We lost seven people last week. Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

DENVER OFFENSE: Peyton Manning hasn’t looked the same recently. He went 4-of-14 for 43 yards in the second half of the Kansas City game, and he lofted two fluttering passes that died in the Mile High wind last week that were easily picked off by Buffalo defenders. Either Manning is pacing himself for a playoff run, or he’s fatigued, which shouldn’t be a surprise, given his age and the fact that Denver’s bye was all the way back in Week 4.

The good news for Manning is that he will be playing in nicer conditions this Sunday afternoon, so he won’t be able to use the weather for an excuse. He will, however, be up against an improved San Diego defense that has gotten most of its personnel back. If you recall, Manning torched the Chargers on a Thursday night back in October, but Brandon Flowers suffered an injury early in the game. San Diego struggled immensely to cover as a result, which is understandable, given how good of a cornerback he is. The Chargers have been much better against the pass lately, particularly in the red zone. Tom Brady couldn’t even convert down there.

The Broncos, of course, have been running the ball quite a bit lately. They gashed the Chiefs for 207 yards on the ground two weeks ago, and they pounded it frequently against the Bills. C.J. Anderson scored thrice, but excluding one nice run from Juwan Thompson, Denver didn’t rush all that effectively. That’s understandable, given that the Bills are eighth against ground attacks, but San Diego isn’t too far behind, ranking 11th in that regard (in terms of YPC).

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Manning and the offense get all the headlines, but the Broncos’ defense has been the better unit lately. Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware are putting tremendous pressure on opposing quarterbacks, while two players are thriving in the back seven. If linebacker Brandon Marshall and cornerback Chris Harris aren’t voted to the Pro Bowl, something is wrong.

Miller and Ware will make life extremely difficult for Philip Rivers. The last time the Broncos saw him, Rivers sustained a rib injury in the middle of a 14-point loss. Rivers would end up struggling for a few weeks, but he’s been healthier and sharper recently. However, his offensive line is betraying him; there are some liabilities up front, including the center position, as San Diego is on its fifth starter. I’d like Rivers a lot more in this matchup if I knew he were being protected well, but that’s not the case.

Rivers won’t have any help from his average running game either. It’s difficult to imagine Ryan Mathews having any success against a unit that is second against the rush in terms of YPC (3.36). Mathews is banged up, so he may not even play.

RECAP: I was burned the first time in this matchup, but two things happened: Rivers got hurt, while Flowers left the game, abandoning a secondary that was in shambles. Rivers and Flowers are both healthy now, so I like their chances now. I’m actually going to take San Diego for three units. Here’s why:

1. I mentioned this earlier, but home underdogs coming off losses as home underdogs have been money over the years. The Chargers played the Patriots well, so I like their chances against the Broncos, who are just a bit worse.

2. Something seems wrong with Manning. His arm looks sapped, so I don’t like his chances of covering a spread of three-plus on the road.

3. The public is all over the Broncos, yet this spread is off. By my numbers, the Broncos should only be favored by two. We’re only talking about a couple of points in value, but crossing the key number three is huge.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public keeps pounding this up. The sharps are probably waiting and hoping that a +6 hits so that they can pound San Diego. Be patient tomorrow if you like the Chargers.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps finally hit the Chargers. They took this down to +3.5 before the public bet up Denver to -4. This is available at +5 -105 at Bovada, however.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

The public is pounding the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 75% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Broncos have won 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Peyton Manning is 43-27 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

Philip Rivers is 29-19 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (12-6 ATS as an underdog).

Opening Line: Broncos -3.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Broncos 27, Chargers 26
Chargers +5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 22, Chargers 10

Minnesota Vikings (6-7) at Detroit Lions (9-4)
Line: Lions by 8. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Lions -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Lions -7.5.
Sunday, Dec. 14, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Lions.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 7! An old nemesis returns to prevent Emmitt and his friends from finding the third scion of the Walking Buc apocalypse.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Remember when the Lions were sputtering offensively and went on a long streak without generating a touchdown? So much for that. Thanks in part to playing a couple of dud defenses in the Bears and Buccaneers – it helped that Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David got hurt last week (the former wasn’t as dominant upon his return to the field) – Detroit was able to post a pair of 34-point outputs. Calvin Johnson being healthy has made all the difference.

Getting to 34 might be more difficult this week, given that the Vikings boast a tremendous pass rush. Only three teams (Bills, Eagles, Jaguars) have recorded more sacks than Minnesota this year. Everson Griffen has been on fire lately, and he’ll make life difficult for Matthew Stafford, who has dealt with poor protection all season.

I’m not saying the Vikings will completely shut down the Lions’ scoring attack or anything, but they’ll at least slow Detroit down enough to give themselves a chance. Xavier Rhodes will help, of course, as he has been playing some fantastic football lately. Stafford could struggle a bit throwing to his side of the field.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Teddy Bridgewater had one of his best games as a pro last week, going 19-of-27 for 309 yards, two touchdowns and an interception last week. However, things will be much more difficult this Sunday, as Bridgewater will go from torching the Jets’ inept secondary to battling a Detroit defense that happens to be pretty stout.

The major concern for Bridgewater will be his pass protection. The Vikings haven’t blocked well this year; left tackle Matt Kalil has been especially bad, resembling a human turnstile. Ndamukong Suh and the rest of Detroit’s front will dominate the trenches and put tons of pressure on Bridgewater, who will have to settle for plenty of checkdowns. I like his receiving corps more now with the athletic Charles Johnson emerging, but Bridgewater probably won’t have time in the pocket to find the former Brown downfield.

Making matters worse, Bridgewater won’t even have Jerick McKinnon to lean on. The third-round rookie is out for the season, so the Vikings are stuck with Matt Asiata and Ben Tate, who may not even combine for 20 rushing yards against Detroit’s No. 1 run defense, which has surrendered a grand total of 32 yards on the ground to its previous two opponents.

RECAP: The Lions aren’t exactly in the best spot. They’ve disappointed over the years following victories, especially if they’ve won two or more in a row. Also, teams playing in their third-consecutive home game following a pair of wins tend to struggle, as they’re 6-24 ATS in such situations dating back to 1990.

I just wish this line were higher. If the Vikings were +10, I’d be all over them. I’d even like them a lot more at +9. I’m not as big of a fan at +8.

I’m taking Minnesota for a unit. I’ll revisit this if the number moves up, but I don’t think that’ll happen because the sharps will definitely be all over the Vikings at a higher spread.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has been bouncing from +8 to +7, back to +8. I was hoping it would go higher, but that hasn’t been the case. I find it odd that while other spreads have been inflated – like Patriots -7.5 – this one has remained near where it should be. That might be an indication that Vegas doesn’t want the sharps hitting Minnesota very much.

SUNDAY NOTES: If you like the Vikings, take them on Bovada at +8 -105. It’s +7.5 everywhere else.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
A slight lean on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 63% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Vikings have won 24 of the last 30 meetings.

Lions are 2-11 ATS after a double-digit win since 2011.

Lions are 14-25 ATS against losing teams the previous 39 instances.

Matthew Stafford is 3-8 ATS as a favorite following 2+ wins.

Opening Line: Lions -7.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Lions 23, Vikings 17
Vikings +8 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Lions 16, Vikings 14

San Francisco 49ers (7-6) at Seattle Seahawks (9-4)
Line: Seahawks by 9. Total: 38.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Seahawks -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -11.
Sunday, Dec. 14, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Septa Train Zombies.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers look like they’ve given up. Jim Harbaugh has mailed it in because he doesn’t want to be in San Francisco anymore; Colin Kaepernick has regressed; while Vernon Davis hasn’t tried in months. Oh, and for good measure, the offensive line has taken a step backward this season and has struggled to block.

It’s no surprise that the 49ers couldn’t move the ball on the Seahawks two weeks ago. They’ll have similar issues again; while San Francisco is trending downward, Seattle’s defense has improved, thanks to the return of K.J. Wright. The stud linebacker has helped improve a leaky run defense, which has surrendered 50 or fewer rushing yards to the team’s previous three opponents. The 49ers were limited to 41 yards on the ground two weeks ago, and they’ll likely have a similar output in the rematch.

Kaepernick, consequently, will struggle to do anything against the Legion of Boom. He was awful on Thanksgiving night, going 16-of-29 for 121 yards and two interceptions. This occurred at home, where Kaepernick didn’t have to deal with the 12th Man. He might even be worse this Sunday.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: On the other end of the spectrum, Russell Wilson is playing terrific football right now. He had some issues in the middle of the season, but he’s been very sharp recently, scoring seven touchdowns and committing no turnovers in his previous four games. The 49ers still aren’t bad defensively, yet Wilson posted a 10.7 YPA against them.

The 49ers did a good job of putting pressure on Wilson in the first matchup, but being a magician in the pocket, Wilson was able to dance around until he found his target or scramble for big chunks on the ground. He did the same thing at Philadelphia, and he’ll once again repeat that in this game. He’s so difficult to stop, which is why the Seahawks are so efficient offensively despite the fact that they don’t have any play-makers.

San Francisco also had trouble containing Marshawn Lynch. The 49ers have a mediocre run defense overall, which would explain Lynch’s 104-yard output two weeks ago. Lynch should once again be able to wear down the 49ers’ front.

RECAP: I hate that we lost so much spread value with the Seahawks – this was -6.5 a week ago – but the line is pretty much where it should be now.

I like the Seahawks for a unit. They’re so strong at home, and they’re playing so much better than the 49ers, who look like they’re going to mail it in because Jim Harbaugh has checked out. Besides, Pete Carroll hates Harbaugh, so I’m sure he’d love to step on his throat in his final meeting against him until 2018 when the Seahawks will visit the Raiders.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s sharp action on the 49ers. As Matvei put it, San Francisco’s games against Washington and Oakland must’ve been blacked out in their area.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps are on the 49ers, which is why this spread dropped to +9. That’s fine. The Seahawks should be able to win this easily.

The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.

Jim Harbaugh seems to be done. The Seahawks will be up for their arch rival.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
I’m surprised there isn’t more money on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 53% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

History: Home Team has won 10 of the last 12 meetings.

Jim Harbaugh is 6-2 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Seahawks are 29-12 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -9.5.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Seahawks 23, 49ers 10
Seahawks -9 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 38 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 17, 49ers 7

Dallas Cowboys (9-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-4)
Line: Eagles by 3.5. Total: 55.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Eagles -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -3.
Sunday, Dec. 14, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: Eagles.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The dichotomy between Mark Sanchez’s performances against the Cowboys and Seahawks was vast, but predictable at the same time. Sanchez is not a good quarterback; he has his moments, and he’ll have some great games, but he struggles with consistency, and when he’s bad, things completely unravel for him. He won’t lead the Eagles deep into the playoffs, but he can beat poor defenses, as we all saw on Thanksgiving.

Sanchez went 20-of-29 for 217 yards and two touchdowns (one passing, one rushing) at Dallas. While a repeat performance – or an even better one – is possible, it’s not guaranteed. Sanchez, after all, made mistakes versus Carolina and Tennessee at home, and he was so careless against the latter foe that he single-handedly kept the uncompetitive Titans in the game. He could conceivably do the same thing against a Cowboy defense that has been exposed lately.

Of course, the Eagles can prevent Sanchez from sabotaging this victory by putting the ball into LeSean McCoy’s hands again. McCoy couldn’t run versus Seattle’s defensive front, but he zipped through the Cowboys’ poor stop unit, gaining 159 yards on just 25 carries two weeks ago.

DALLAS OFFENSE: It wasn’t surprising that the Cowboys couldn’t stop the Eagles from scoring in the previous meeting, but it was rather shocking that Dallas struggled to move the chains. The offensive line that was so heralded by all the talking heads on TV couldn’t protect Romo at all, as the interior surrendered three sacks because it couldn’t block Fletcher Cox. Romo, consequently, was responsible for two interceptions and a meager 6.9 YPA.

Romo has the potential to have a better performance though, given how poor Philadelphia’s secondary is. The Eagles have had issues in their defensive backfield all year, and it’s difficult to imagine them shutting down Dez Bryant a second time.

However, Romo will once again have more on his plate than usual, given how well the Eagles handle opposing rushing attacks. DeMarco Murray has been dominant all year, but he had his worst performance of the season on Thanksgiving, rushing for a season-low 73 yards, as his YPC was 3.7 – the only time it’s been less than four in 2014. With Murray set to struggle again, Romo and the rest of Dallas’ offense could sputter for a second time.

RECAP: The rule with the NFC East games is that you almost always take the road team. The Eagles prevailed in Dallas, and now it’s time for the Cowboys to return the favor. They’ve had more time to prepare, so they’ll have a better game plan on this occasion. They’ll also be in their second straight road game, which is generally a nice situation.

I’m taking the Cowboys for two units. I have this calculated at even -3, so getting the hook is nice in addition to the other factors I just mentioned.

SUNDAY NOTES: I’m bumping this to three units. I’ll have more later before the game. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still like the Cowboys, so please, for the love of God, do not bet on them. In fact, take the Eagles for free money. For some reason, I can’t pick games at all, and I’ve gotten so bad that I can’t handicap my way out of a paper bag. I apologize to anyone who followed my picks, especially that Cleveland abomination (Johnny Manziel is seriously the worst quarterback of all time). I absolutely suck and need to figure out what I’m doing wrong so I can fix things.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 60% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

History: Road Team has won 7 of the last 9 meetings.

Cowboys are 22-12 ATS as an underdog since 2009.

The underdog is 51-23 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Jason Garrett is 5-2 ATS in his second consecutive road game.

Tony Romo is 10-23 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (2-8 ATS as an underdog).

Jason Garrett is 1-4 ATS in revenge games.

Eagles are 13-28 ATS at home since 2010.

Favorites after playing the Seahawks are 7-22 ATS.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.5.

Opening Total: 55.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Cowboys 27, Eagles 24
Cowboys +3.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 55 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 38, Eagles 27

New Orleans Saints (5-8) at Chicago Bears (5-8)
Line: Saints by 3. Total: 54.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Saints -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -1.
Monday, Dec. 15, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Charles Davis, the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Chicago, where the Chicago Cubs will host the Saints! Guys, does anyone have $50,000 to lend me? The Saints have dicked me over so many times this year, and I keep losing money on them because I keep listening to that a**hole WalterFootball and keep picking them, and the one time I went against them, when they played the Pittsburgh Pirates, they won! And then they lost to the Carolina Thundercats! Such bulls***! Emmitt, you surely have the money.

Emmitt: Luthor, I do not have any money because I debacled it in the housing market that crash a few week ago. I mean a few day. I do not understand how house crash. I would not buy these house if I knew they has wheels and drivin’ around and crashin’ into each others!

Reilly: Sorry to hear that, Emmitt. You were my best hope. I doubt Millen has that kind of dough.

Millen: Right you are, Kevin! I actually had 50 grand, but I invited a 100-percent USDA Man back to my hotel room last night. I thought he would be interested in the usual kielbasa-stuffing in the backside, but he had a different sort of fetish. He asked me to insert $100 bills into his backside. Let me tell you, Kevin, this was the best night I’ve ever had that didn’t involve kielbasas. It cost me 50 grand, but it was well worth it.

Reilly: Ugh, just my luck! Way to be selfish and not think of me when you had that sort of money!

Tollefson: Kevin, I don’t have that sort of money on me, but I know how to get it. You announce that you’re selling tickets to sporting events such as this one to old people. They give you money for a ticket and a bus ride to the game, and then you take their money and run! I’ve done this countless times, and it works like a charm – especially with old women, since they should be cleaning and cooking anyway. By the time they realize you swindled their money, they’re probably dead or senile!

Herm: THAT’S WRONG! THAT’S BAD! THAT’S NOT GOOD! THAT’S EVIL! THAT’S TERRIBLE! YOU’RE TERRIBLE! YOU’RE EVIL! YOU’RE NOT GOOD! YOU’RE BAD! YOU’RE WRONG! HERM THINKS YOU’RE WRONG! HERM THINKS YOU’RE NOT GOOD! HERM THINKS YOU’RE EVIL! HERM THINKS YOU’RE TERRIBLE! HERM THINKS HERM’S TERRIBLE! I MEAN HERM THINKS HE’S TERRIBLE! OR DOES HERM THINK THAT HERM’S TERRIBLE!? DOES HERM THINK HERM’S TERRIBLE!? DOES HERM THINK HERM’S EVIL!? DOES HERM THINK HERM’S NOT GOOD!? DOES HERM THINK HERM’S BAD!? DOES HERM THINK HERM’S WRONG!? DOES HERM THINK… think…

Reilly: Herm, why don’t you go kill yourself if you think you’re that terrible? Fouts, how about you? Can you lend me 50 grand?

Fouts: I do not have 50 grand, but I can tell you how to get 50 grand, Kevin. If you go out on the street, bring a musical instrument with you. A musical instrument is an instrument that is musical, and you can get one at a musical instrument store, which sells musical instruments. Then, begin playing it on the street. Just to be clear, you don’t want to be playing in the street because you’ll get hit by a car. A car is a motorized vehicle! Once you start playing your instrument, people will begin giving you change. You might get a quarter. That’s 25 cents. Then, you might get a dime. A dime is 10 cents, so 25 plus 10 is 40. You now have 40 cents, which is more than 25 cents and 10 cents combined! What if you get a penny? A penny is worth one cent. If you add that, you now have 61 cents, so you can see how your money is growing. Growth is good, because that means you’re increasing your money. It’s better than decay, which is the opposite of growth. Make sure you don’t decay your money, Kevin!

Reilly: OK, I’ll get right on that. That actually doesn’t sound like a bad idea. Maybe I’ll hold up a sign saying that the police beat me up, so sympathizers will give me money. Now, I just need to pick a good instrument to play.

Charles Davis: Kevin, there are lots of choices for musical instruments, Kevin. Let’s begin with the violin, Kevin. That’s a good one, Kevin. What about a guitar, Kevin? That’s always a classic, Kevin. How about the flute, Kevin? What about the clarinet, Kevin? Why don’t you try the bagpipe, Kevin? You can try the piccolo, Kevin! You think about the trumpet, Kevin? How about the banjo, Kevin? What about the harmonica, Kevin? Did you think about the triangle, Kevin? Do you have a xylophone, Kevin? What about a drum set, Kevin? How about the big one, Kevin? The one with the keys, Kevin? Do you know what I’m thinking about, Kevin? I’ll give you two-and-a-half guesses, Kevin. Oh, you think I’m referring to the French horn, Kevin? Try again, Kevin! What’s that, Kevin? You think I mean the kazoo, Kevin? Think bigger, Kevin! Oh, you give up already, Kevin? That’s too bad, Kevin! Because I was referring to the piano, Kevin!

Reilly: HOW CAN I BRING A F***ING PIANO INTO THE STREET, YOU IDIOT!? I’M JUST GOING TO KILL YOU AND STEAL YOUR LIFE INSURANCE MONEY! We’ll be back after this!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: What the hell happened to Drew Brees? I wrote a few weeks ago that there must be something personal weighing either him or Sean Payton, and I was more convinced of that in the Saints’ latest, inexplicable loss. Brees’ performance was ridiculous; his 235 passing yards were a mirage, as they came late in garbage time, and his YPA of 4.8 was more indicative of his performance. Such a low figure is obscene; even Brodie Croyle, one of the worst quarterbacks ever, maintained a higher YPA throughout his career (5.2).

I think many believe it’s a given that Brees will rebound against Chicago’s pathetic defense, but I’m not sure that’ll be the case. Brees was exceptional at Pittsburgh back in Week 13, but unlike the Steelers, the Bears can get after the quarterback pretty well, and pass protection was a huge issue for Brees in last week’s loss. Drops were as well, as Jimmy Graham is apparently playing through a shoulder injury. If there’s good news though, it’s that the Bears have been terrible against tight ends all year.

Chicago, however, has been fine when it comes to stopping the rush. Mark Ingram struggled last week, and his fumble was especially costly. It wouldn’t surprise me if he produced nothing yet again.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Jay Cutler has been a terrific fade throughout his career. Just look at his numbers below; he’s 35-65 against the spread – but only if you exclude Monday night. Cutler is somehow 8-4 ATS on Monday Night Football, so he can probably be trusted on one of the rare occasions in his career.

Cutler has an easy matchup anyway. The Saints are inept in all facets on this side of the ball, so even though Cutler won’t have Brandon Marshall at his disposal, he should be able to shred a New Orleans secondary that hasn’t been able to contain Andy Dalton, Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick, all of whom have struggled for the most part otherwise.

The Saints also stink against the run. They’ve been so bad that they’ve surrendered a ridiculous 6.1 yards per carry over the past four weeks – which is the league’s worst figure in that regard over that span by more than half a yard! Matt Forte strangely had trouble running on the Cowboys last Thursday, but those issues should be resolved Monday night.

RECAP: The Saints have made some serious moves since getting blown out by the Panthers. They’ve waived Joe Morgan and benched Kenny Vaccaro, who has taken a major step backward this season. I doubt this will help in the long run, but perhaps it’ll provide a spark this Monday.

Having said that, I don’t understand this spread. The Cowboys, who are much better than the Saints, were favored by nearly the same amount in Chicago. The Bears are the right side from that perspective, but then again, the Saints have the edge from a spot standpoint; they are coming off a spread loss of 25-plus, which has been lucrative over the years.

This is the toughest call of the week for me. I’m taking the Saints because of the spot, but I’d rather bet on high school volleyball than this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m a bit more confident in the Saints now. They need this game, and I like all of the moves they did this past week. The Bears, meanwhile, may not have the motivation, and Jay Cutler won’t have Brandon Marshall. It’s not enough for me to bet on this game, but it feels like the Saints are the right side.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Why are people betting the Saints as a road favorite?

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 79% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Drew Brees is 30-19 ATS after a loss with the Saints.

Jay Cutler is 8-4 ATS on Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Saints -2.5.

Opening Total: 54.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Saints 26, Bears 20
Saints -3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 54 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 31, Bears 15

Week 15 NFL Picks – Early Games
Arizona�at�St. Louis, Pittsburgh�at�Atlanta, Green Bay�at�Buffalo, Cincinnati�at�Cleveland, Minnesota�at�Detroit, Houston�at�Indianapolis, Oakland�at�Kansas City, Miami�at�New England, Washington�at�NY Giants, Tampa Bay�at�Carolina, Jacksonville�at�Baltimore

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)