NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2014): 9-4-2 (+$255)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2014): 5-9-1 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2014): 10-4-1 (+$330)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2014): 4-11 (+$320)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2014): 9-4 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2014): 9-4 (-$90)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2014): 8-6 (+$90)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2014): 7-8 (+$100)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2014): 5-11 (-$1,390)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2014): 8-8 (-$130)
NFL Picks (2014): 109-109-6 (-$1,275)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.
Vegas betting action updated Dec. 15, 5:20 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Go to Week 15 NFL Picks – Late Games
Arizona Cardinals (10-3) at St. Louis Rams (6-7)
Line: Rams by 4.5. Total: 40.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Rams -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Rams -6.
Thursday, Dec. 11, 8:25 ET
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: Rams.
WEEK 14 RECAP: I was in the black heading into Monday night, but the Falcons’ backdoor cover screwed me. How did the Broncos and Packers blow leads of 24-3 and 31-7, respectively? And yet I couldn’t get the Buccaneers to throw a touchdown at the very end when they marched down to the Detroit 15-yard line! Disgusting.
I had a losing Week 14, as a result. I don’t know what I could’ve done differently. I made one bad selection upon looking over my notes again (Buccaneers), and I shouldn’t have dropped the Ravens from four to two units because of one player, but I had terrible luck otherwise. The Buffalo cover was especially painful because I had the Broncos as one of my SuperContest picks. How does Kyle Orton convert a fourth-and-16!? Ugh!
ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals can’t score. They struggle to maintain drives, as they haven’t blocked well (save for Jared Veldheer). They can’t run the ball consistently either. Worst of all, Drew Stanton has been pretty pedestrian, to put it nicely. Stanton is completing just 54.5 percent of his passes, and he thinks he’s Kurt Warner sometimes, as he’s been picked trying to fit the ball into tight coverage. Stanton won last week’s game, but was very fortunate to get away with some passes that should’ve been turnovers.
Stanton was helped by Kerwynn Williams’ performance, which came out of nowhere – but only because fantasy owners thought either Marion Grice or Stepfan Taylor would receive the majority of the workload. Williams dashed for 100 yards, but did so against the worst rush defense in the NFL. The Rams are seventh against the run, as their previous two opponents have gained just a combined 74 yards on the ground.
The Cardinal aerial attack will have to move the chains on its own, which could be disastrous. The Rams have an unbelievable pass rush that figures to overwhelm Stanton, so he could be forced into several give-aways.
ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The Rams have been much more consistent offensively with Shaun Hill under center. Austin Davis would usually give games away with terrible mistakes – like the one at Arizona – but Hill has been steady (save for the end of the San Diego game), throwing six touchdowns and two interceptions in his previous four starts, all while completing 62 percent of his passes. The Rams would be in a much better position had Hill started the entire season.
Hill would’ve had a very difficult matchup a few weeks ago, but the Cardinals have been beaten down with injuries. They were already missing some key players like Daryl Washington and Darnell Dockett, but they’ve lost Tyrann Mathieu and Antonio Cromartie in recent weeks. Cromartie hurt his ankle versus the Chiefs, and while he could be back in Week 16, it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to suit up Thursday. Not having him on the field will really open things up for either Kenny Britt or Stedman Bailey. Jared Cook also figures to have a big game, as Arizona hasn’t defended tight ends well all year.
Tre Mason also figures to run well. The Cardinals are ninth overall versus the rush with a 3.77 YPC, but that figure has been much worse in the past four weeks (4.69), thanks to all of the injuries.
RECAP: I was shocked when this spread came out. How could the Rams be favored by only 2.5? It wasn’t a shady line either, since this has been close to 50-50 action all week.
Well, the sharps had the same thought process, as they bet this spread up all the way up to -4.5. We’re not getting good line value with the Rams, but the spread was off in the first place.
I like the Rams a lot. They’re the better team right now, especially considering that this game isn’t taking place in Arizona, where the Cardinals have a tremendous homefield advantage. Arizona is also in a bad spot, as non-home dogs coming off victories as home dogs tend to have a dubious track record.
I’m taking St. Louis for three units. This was a four-unit wager at -4 or less, but it’ll be three unless it crosses -6. I’m considering locking this in because I can’t see the spread dropping.
I’ll be posting NFL Picks all day Wednesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I still like the Rams. The sharps have pounded St. Louis all the way up to -6. I’d only take the Rams at one or two units at that number; three units if you can still land -4 or -4.5 somehow, but those are long gone.
The Psychology. Edge: Rams.
The Cardinals have the Seahawks and 49ers after this game, so they could be looking ahead.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: Rams.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Rams 20, Cardinals 10
Rams -4.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 39.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cardinals 12, Rams 6
Oakland Raiders (2-11) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-6)
Line: Chiefs by 11. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Chiefs -10.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -11.
Sunday, Dec. 14, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: None.
WEEK 15 BETTING TRENDS: I’ve identified poisonous teams that I would never bet on to save me from some bad picks. Here’s the list:
Poisonous Teams:
Raiders
Jaguars
Titans
Giants
Redskins
I’ve decided to add the Redskins, given that they’ve cost me six units over the past couple of weeks. They’re 4-9 against the spread this year, and their cover at San Francisco looks much worse now in the wake of the 49ers’ loss to Oakland.
I have discussed point value in terms of the Las Vegas Hilton advance spread. That dynamic was 26-15 against the spread since Week 2 entering last weekend. Here’s how it fared in Week 13:
| Before Week 13 | After Week 13 | ATS Result |
| Panthers +6.5 | Panthers +10 | Cover |
| Redskins PK | Redskins +2.5 | Non-cover |
| Cardinals -3 | Cardinals -1 | Cover |
| Jaguars +3.5 | Jaguars +5.5 | Non-cover |
Just 2-2 this past week, so a mild disappointment. This dynamic is now 28-17 ATS this season. Here are this week’s value lines (movements of two or more without serious injuries):
| Before Week 14 | After Week 14 |
| Titans -3 | Titans +2 |
| Falcons -1.5 | Falcons +2 |
| Redskins +3.5 | Redskins +6.5 |
| 49ers +6.5 | 49ers +9.5 |
| Cardinals -2.5 | Cardinals -4.5 |
Five games apply, but three are garbage teams. Who wants to bet on the Titans, Redskins and 49ers? The Cardinals only are included because the sharps bet up the Rams. The Falcons, meanwhile, went from -1.5 to +2 because of what Pittsburgh did at Cincinnati.
SELF-EVALUATION: Last week, I focused on evaluating my own selections. I’ve lost an unusual number of high-unit games this year; it was the complete opposite in 2013. I wanted to look at all of the picks I’ve made of three-plus units since Week 2 (since I treat the opening Sunday differently) to see if I could discover what I’m doing wrong. Here were all of the games and results:
Week 2: Jaguars +5 at Redskins (4 units) – Loss
Week 2: Packers -7.5 vs. Jets (3 units) – Loss
Week 2: Colts -3 vs. Eagles (4 units) – Loss
Week 3: Saints -10 vs. Vikings (3 units) – Win
Week 3: Packers +2.5 at Lions (3 units) – Loss
Week 3: Colts -7.5 vs. Jaguars (3 units) – Win
Week 3: Chiefs +4 at Dolphins (3 units) – Win
Week 4: Packers -1.5 at Bears (4 units) – Win
Week 4: Panthers +3.5 at Ravens (4 units) – Loss
Week 4: Vikings +3 vs. Falcons (7 units) – Win
Week 5: Rams +7 at Eagles (3 units) – Win
Week 5: Falcons +4.5 at Giants (3 units) – Win
Week 5: Saints -10 vs. Buccaneers (4 units) – Loss
Week 5: Broncos -7.5 vs. Cardinals (3 units) – Win
Week 5: Patriots +3 at Bengals (5 units) – Win
Week 6: Steelers +2 at Browns (3 units) – Loss
Week 6: Bengals -7 vs. Panthers (3 units) – Loss
Week 6: Bills +3 vs. Patriots (4 units) – Loss
Week 6: Giants +3 at Eagles (3 units) – Loss
Week 7: Colts -3 vs. Bengals (3 units) – Win
Week 7: Vikings +6.5 at Bills (4 units) – Win
Week 7: Giants +5 at Cowboys (4 units) – Loss
Week 8: Chargers +9 at Broncos (4 units) – Loss
Week 8: Cardinals -1 at Eagles (3 units) – Win
Week 8: Saints -1 vs. Packers (7 units) – Win
Week 9: Buccaneers +6.5 at Browns (3 units) – Win
Week 9: Patriots +3 vs. Broncos (5 units) – Win
Week 10: Dolphins +3 at Lions (4 units) – Loss
Week 10: Saints -5 vs. 49ers (5 units) – Loss
Week 10: Packers -8 vs. Bears (3 units) – Win
Week 11: Chiefs PK vs. Seahawks (5 units) – Win
Week 11: Saints -7 vs. Bengals (3 units) – Loss
Week 11: Chargers -10 vs. Raiders (3 units) – Loss
Week 11: Cardinals PK vs. Lions (5 units) – Win
Week 11: Colts -3 vs. Patriots (3 units) – Loss
Week 12: Colts -13.5 vs. Jaguars (3 units) – Win
Week 12: Buccaneers +5 at Bears (4 units) – Loss
Week 12: Dolphins +7 at Broncos (5 units) – Win
Week 13: Lions -7 vs. Bears (4 units) – Win
Week 13: Redskins +10 at Colts (3 units) – Loss
Week 13: Patriots +3 at Packers (4 units) – Loss
Week 13: Chiefs +1.5 vs. Broncos (7 units) – Loss
Week 14: Buccaneers +10.5 at Lions (4 units) – Loss
Week 14: Raiders +9 vs. 49ers (3 units) – Win
Week 14: Cardinals +3 vs. Chiefs (5 units) – Win
I’m now just 23-22, including 6-1 on five-unit picks and 2-1 on Picks of the Month. I’m also 6-2 ATS with home dogs. The problem continues to be my four-unit choices, which are now 2-11 ATS.
I noticed I hadn’t had success going against elite quarterbacks, and I asked the readers to contact me if they noticed any patterns. I received some feedback, including…
From Joseph B:
This season when making 3+ unit plays and taking the favorite in a divisional matchup, you are 5-2 and +930, but when taking the underdog you are an unbelievable 0-6 and -2640
Hmm…
Week 3: Packers +2.5 at Lions (3 units) – Loss
Week 6: Steelers +2 at Browns (3 units) – Loss
Week 6: Bills +3 vs. Patriots (4 units) – Loss
Week 6: Giants +3 at Eagles (3 units) – Loss
Week 7: Giants +5 at Cowboys (4 units) – Loss
Week 13: Chiefs +1.5 vs. Broncos (7 units) – Loss
That’s crazy. Divisional underdogs are 29-32 ATS this year, so it’s not like they’ve been sure-fire losers, so I’m just picking the wrong ones. At least I hope so, because two look very interesting to me at first glance.
From Jack R:
1) You are 1-6 fading top 10 offenses (yards per play) playing at home. Conversely, you are 4-1 fading top 10 offenses playing away. This trend absolutely makes sense, as elite offenses playing behind their home crowd can quickly gain momentum and score points even if they are in a bad spot according to other trends. We definitely see this in games, where a good offensive team will begin in a funk, but then quickly score a barrage of points in the second or third quarter. When they are away, they don’t have that advantage. The only downside to this one is that it’s a lot easier to tell in Week 14 which teams have top 10 offenses, but if you use some judgement early in the season and then go on stats once we have an idea of what teams are like (like you do with the 6 and 6 rule and with elite QBs), this should really help.
2) You are 8-4 betting top 10 turnover margin teams. This one makes sense, as turnover margin usually coincides with quality coaching and quarterbacking.
3) You are 3-8 betting bottom 10 turnover margin teams (1-5 when they are away teams). This one also makes sense, as a team with poor coaching and/or quarterbacking may not cover the spread even in a great betting spot. The away record is probably worse because a loud enemy crowd means more offensive mistakes.
4) This one isn’t a trend. Your 5 unit selections have a great track record. I think there could be value in adding an additional unit. In other words, if a play is strong enough for 5 units, it’s strong enough for 6. The 2014 sample size is small, but if you have a great record through your history, I’d give this serious thought.
The first bit hurt me in the Detroit game. Not that the Lions are in the top 10 overall this season, but their offense has improved with Calvin Johnson being healthy. It looked like the Buccaneers would cover +10.5, but Detroit sprinted quickly down the field with eight minutes remaining and scored a front-door touchdown.
I may consider adding a unit to the 5- and 7-unit choices as well. As you may see later…
KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs put everyone on notice that they were aware of their dubious stat – that none of their wide receivers have no touchdowns this season. Well, their wideouts were able to reach the end zone last week, and there are reasons for that. The first is that the receivers stink in the first place. The second is the offensive line, which has not granted good protection to Alex Smith. And third, Smith is pretty limited himself, as he couldn’t do anything more than toss checkdowns during an attempted comeback.
The Raiders should be able to pressure Smith. They have the third-fewest sacks in the NFL, but they registered five sacks on Colin Kaepernick last week, and they should be able to get through Kansas City’s poor front to sack Smith. They put heavy heat on him in the prior meeting, so I don’t see why things would be any different just three weeks later.
The Chiefs need to establish Jamaal Charles to prevent this from happening. That sounds pretty obvious, but Charles has barely handled the ball the past two weeks. He had 14 touches against the Broncos, and then that figure dropped to 12 at Arizona. I figured Andy Reid would be in a post-Thanksgiving coma, but this is ridiculous. The Raiders are in the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the run, so Charles should have a good game if he’s given the opportunity.
OAKLAND OFFENSE: I was down on Derek Carr earlier, but with the help of offensive coordinator Greg Olson, he’s been able to make strides. He finally showed that he has potential to be a franchise quarterback last week, going 22-of-28 for 254 yards and three touchdowns against a solid San Francisco defense. The challenge for Carr will be being consistent; he needs to back up this past Sunday’s performance with another strong one.
Carr, however, may not have to do much as long as the Raiders can keep this game close. They’ll be able to run all over the Chiefs with Latavius Murray, who racked up 112 yards on just four carries the last time he played Kansas City. He may have been on his way to one of the greatest single-game rushing performances in NFL history – he had that total early in the second quarter – but he had to leave the game with a concussion. Murray should be able to pick up where he left off against an atrocious rush defense that is miles worse than any other such unit in the NFL this year.
Murray will make things easier for Carr, who should be able to play well. However, Carr may have to throw to someone other than Mychal Rivera in this contest, as the Chiefs have been pretty solid in terms of defending tight ends this year.
RECAP: I picked the Raiders to upset the 49ers last week. I’m not so sure about this one. It’s on the road, the desperate Chiefs will be looking for revenge, and there’s a chance that Oakland did too much celebrating following its “Super Bowl” victory.
Having said that, I’m taking the points. This isn’t a good spot for the Raiders, so I won’t be betting on them, but I can’t talk myself into laying double digits with a team that has struggled mightily the past three weeks. Teams on losing streaks of three or more are a dubious 3-12 ATS as double-digit favorites since 1989, if you were wondering.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I was pretty confident the Raiders would upset the 49ers last week, but I’m not so sure about this game. Oakland is in a bad spot, but this spread is too high.
SUNDAY NOTES: I have slightly more interest in the Raiders at +11, but there’s always a chance that they don’t show up.
The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.
The Raiders just won their Super Bowl, so I’m not sure about their focus level. The Chiefs are in a must-win situation.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: Raiders.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Chiefs 23, Raiders 16
Raiders +11 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 31, Raiders 13
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) at Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
Line: Ravens by 14. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Ravens -12.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -13.5.
Sunday, Dec. 14, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: Ravens.
VEGAS UPDATE: Vegas had its worst Sunday of the season in Week 10, so it had to win some of its money back. It has done so the past four weeks. It didn’t look like that would be the case during halftime of the Packers-Falcons game, but perhaps someone from the mob called in and told Mike McCarthy to take it lightly on the Falcons in the second half. Getting Atlanta was huge, as there was tons of money on Green Bay. See, kids, this is why you don’t bet public teams on Sunday or Monday night games. Now, if only I listened to my advice.
Once again, follow @walterfootball for updates.
BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Joe Flacco is playing the best football of his career right now, save, of course, for his Super Bowl run a couple of years ago. His completion percentage (64.0) and YPA (7.4) are the best figures he’s ever posted in the regular season. He’s carrying this Baltimore team that has major issues in its secondary.
Flacco should be able to light up the Jaguars, as long as he needs to; Jacksonville has a poor secondary that would have looked helpless against Ryan Fitzpatrick last week – except Fitzpatrick only had to throw the ball 19 times, completing 13 passes in the process. The Texans simply ran all over the Jaguars, which is what I expect Baltimore to do. Justin Forsett is also playing at his best right now, getting help from an awesome offensive line. Jacksonville has surrendered triple-digit rushing yards to its previous five opponents, and Baltimore will be No. 6.
The one thing the Jaguars do well defensively is rush the quarterback. They somehow have the third-most sacks in the NFL this year, trailing only Buffalo and Philadelphia. They may not be able to add to their sack total very much, however, as Baltimore has surrendered the second-fewest sacks in the NFL (Broncos are No. 1). The Ravens’ offensive line has been unreal, limiting Flacco to just three sacks in his previous four games.
JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I can’t believe I dropped that Ravens’ bet because Haloti Ngata was out. Ngata is a terrific player, but it’s not like the Ravens don’t have more studs in their front seven. They were all awesome at Miami, particularly C.J. Mosley and Elvis Dumervil. The latter put tons of pressure on Ryan Tannehill, so that doesn’t bode well for Blake Bortles, who is protected worse than Tannehill is.
Mosley, meanwhile, was awesome in all regards, including run support. Baltimore’s No. 4 rush defense limited Lamar Miller and the Dolphins to just 57 yards on the ground. The Jaguars don’t run nearly as well, as Denard Robinson has faded away since the bye, so they almost certainly won’t be able to move the chains that way.
Bortles will have to throw effectively to give the Jaguars a shot. There’s a slight chance he’ll be able to, given Baltimore’s issues in the secondary, but Bortles is struggling right now, and he probably won’t have time in the pocket to find his receivers downfield.
RECAP: This is a high spread, but it’s right where it should be. I’m picking the Ravens, but not with much conviction because this is a flat spot for them. They’re coming off a big victory at Miami, and they may not take Jacksonville very seriously. The Jaguars suck though, so they’ll probably give this game – and cover – away by doing something stupid.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The Jaguars are probably the “right” side, but they’ll somehow find a way to blow this cover. That’s what they’ve done all year, dating back to when they had a 17-0 lead at Philadelphia.
SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps are on the Jaguars, but they’ve been on the Jaguars all year. And yet, Jacksonville usually finds a way to disappoint.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
A good lean on the Ravens.
The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Ravens 30, Jaguars 13
Ravens -14 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 20, Jaguars 12
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) at Atlanta Falcons (5-8)
Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 55.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Falcons -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Dec. 14, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: Steelers.
HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails. These are from the comment boards below:
How the hell can you honestly say the Steelers are a better team than Cincinnati. Losses to TB and NO at home, and a road loss to the Jets. We try to warn you every week to stop betting on Cincy games, but I guess your “self-evaluation” week is really just an excuse to piss and moan instead of actually doing something differently. You are an absolute idiot. Better start hoping the clearly inferior team can pull out the upset.
An absolute idiot? I knew I was an idiot this entire time, but an absolute idiot? Wow! No wonder I didn’t project the “inferior” Steelers to win by 21 points.
walter,nice capping (you and the sharps) western Ky. was not very competitive vs. MARSHALL, oh wait,I’m mistaken, as 24pt dog, they scored 67 and won at Marshall, you sir are pathetic, shove your college picks up your fat azz!
That’s exactly where I like them, teehee.
Good ole Wally gonna cost people more money. Fade this fruitcake phony. Tannehill over Flacco? Guy knows @#$@e about football. Good ole wally gonna get beat again.
OH MY GOD WHAT HAVE I DONE I JUST PICKED A SUPER BOWL-WINNING QB OVER TANNEHILL OMG OMG OMG WHAT A STUPID PICK!!!!!!!!!!!
Ur full of kaka ur underwear r falling off and u don’t even know it
Oh, I know it. And I like it.
@Walter, the guy who posted after Sunday saying you should be forced to change the sites name to walter.com was not only funny but spot on. You lousy lard A S S F U CK, destroyed everyone with your POM, then 3 blow outs so far this week, bears (lol), Arizona +14.5 vs Ducks (lmao….yeah, Ducks always choke in big games, great handicapping) and the Miami heat +1 who lose by 30?(you site some lame statistic about a guy named Zach that no one has heard of or cares about. Really Walter, quit posting picks and just go F u c k that pig of a gf you claim to have or better yet let all the boys on the forum you have buried get in line and take a stab at that beast, she will likely thank you! Rot in hell, im done with your Walt.com crap.
You’re done with Walt.com? That’s cool. As long as you’re not done with Walter.com, which is what you said I should change this site to in the first place.
Walter did you notice how the spread dropped to 2.5 and the sharps quickly pounded it back up to 3. You better stop dropping units and jump on Miami. “The Dolphins also lack a true homefield advantage” Idiot
That was some great homefield advantage vs. Baltimore.
@Walter,nice way to kick off the week loser, just another 2 unit blow out, lololololololol. Geez, you and your picks really choke on big black D I C K Wally! Now swallow the creamy load!
Mmmm… creamy loud… yum, yum, good!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!! I’m done with this site. The Raiders will not beat the 49ers.
I wonder if this guy is crying in the room in his parents’ basement after that Niner stink bomb on Sunday.
This is from my 2015 NFL Mock Draft:
Charlie Brown, hey mut! I want you to forward this to Walter Ripimplezinzki: Walter, you have no idea what you are doing. P.J. Williams in the 1st rd to the Rams again? ARE YOU FUCKING SERIOUS? AGAIN? I’m sick and tired of you mocking us this piece of shit corner even though we already have a good secondary. Are you that fucking dense? We have Janoris freaking Jenkins, Trumaine Johnson, and E.J. Gaines. Suck on a fat chode, Walter. Do not ever let me see you mocking us a corner in the 1st rd again this year. You know nothing about football mr waterboy pimple-zizinski.
Thanks for the e-mail. Sorry about the Rams’ pick, but I’m doing that intentionally. It’s my goal to single-handedly ruin the Rams! Muhahaha! Actually, you make a good point, which I realized while sucking on that fat chode.
Here’s an e-mail I received from a guy in the Godfather:
ATLANTA OFFENSE: Many sportsbooks have refrained from posting a spread on this game until now because of Julio Jones’ status. Jones, who racked up 259 yards against the Packers on Monday night, is dealing with a sore hip and will certainly miss practice time this week. Mike Smith said he “hoped” Jones would suit up Sunday, but it sounds like the All-Pro wideout will be a game-time decision.
It goes without saying how important Jones’ availability is. Most teams don’t have the personnel to deal with him, but like the Packers, the Steelers have major issues in their secondary, which will allow Jones to dominate just as he did on Monday, as long as he’s on the field and close to 100 percent. Still, even if Jones can’t play, or is limited, Matt Ryan figures to have a strong performance against a defensive backfield that simply can’t cover.
The Falcons may also have some success on the ground. They’ll obviously be limited by what Steven Jackson can do (or rather, can’t do) at this stage of his career, but Pittsburgh is just 25th versus ground attacks in terms of YPC and is just two weeks removed from giving up 143 yards on the ground to the Saints of all teams.
PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Packers weren’t fully focused in the second half, but Aaron Rodgers lit up the Falcons in the first half on Monday night. Rodgers barely had any pressure in his face, and with Atlanta focusing on Eddie Lacy bursting for big gains, Rodgers was able to shred a secondary that is actually pretty half-decent.
I don’t see why this contest would be any different. The Falcons, who have the second-fewest sacks in the NFL – ahead of only the Bengals – won’t be able to put any pressure on Ben Roethlisberger, who is having one of his best seasons. Roethlisberger will connect with Antonio Brown and his other weapons early and often. It’s nearly impossible to cover Brown, as Atlanta will discover Sunday afternoon.
The Steelers, of course, will also feed the ball to Le’Veon Bell, who is making the case to be known as the top running back in the NFL, despite what DeMarco Murray has done this year. Bell has eclipsed 180 rushing yards in two of his past three games, and it could be three in four once this one is over, given that the Falcons are surrendering 5.04 YPC to their previous four opponents. Bell will also catch a ton of passes, so the Steelers will move the chains that way as well.
RECAP: I’d feel much more comfortable if we were getting a solid +3, but I like the Falcons, regardless of whether Jones plays. The unit total will be affected by Jones’ status more than anything.
This has the makings of a classic Steeler stink bomb. Just check the trends below to see why – historically, they’ve been awful in this situation. They’ve struggled as road favorites over the years, especially when they’re coming off a big win. Also, the public is betting on them, which is key because Pittsburgh’s ownership made its fortune running a sportsbook, back when it was legal. Shady things tend to happen when the Steelers are getting lots of action.
Oh, and the Falcons have a pretty strong homefield advantage. I like them to pull the upset, and I’m taking them for three units for now. It’ll be four, or perhaps even five, depending on Jones’ status and whether or not this goes to +3 (which I doubt, since the sharps are all over the Falcons). Check back later, or follow @walterfootball for updates.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Julio Jones is out, but that might mean that this spread will rise to +3. I like the Falcons a lot regardless. They’ll still be able to move the chains, as Matt Ryan is great at home. I may increase this to four units Sunday morning.
SUNDAY NOTES: With this spread up to +3 (-105 juice at Bovada), I’m going to increase this to four units. The Steelers are an abomination in non-divisional road games, especially off wins. I know Julio Jones isn’t playing, but the Falcons still should be able to score a ton against Pittsburgh’s banged-up defense.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
Surprise, surprise, the public is taking the Steelers.
The Trends. Edge: Falcons.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Falcons 30, Steelers 27
Falcons +3 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Over 55 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 27, Falcons 20
Houston Texans (7-6) at Indianapolis Colts (9-4)
Line: Colts by 7. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Colts -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Colts -8.
Sunday, Dec. 14, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Colts.
If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. It’s not too late to enter, so sign up soon!
Also, you can make your own NFL Power Rankings here.
INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Andrew Luck caught some breaks during last week’s comeback – and he was helped tremendously by Brian Hoyer’s ineptitude – but his ability to pull through and win at the end was very impressive considering all of the pressure he saw at Cleveland. Luck was under siege on almost every play. The interior of his offensive line sucked, and it didn’t help that his center, Jonotthan Harrison, was knocked out of the game.
It’s safe to say that J.J. Watt will dominate this contest. That’s exactly what he did in the first meeting between the two teams, registering two sacks, three batted balls and a fumble returned for a touchdown. Watt doesn’t have much surrounding him, but his defensive teammates actually looked good for once when they were playing the Colts. Whitney Mercilus and Jared Crick have had about three strong outings all year, and they both thrived in that Week 6 game, so perhaps they’ll be able to do that again.
Having said all that, Luck still scored 33 points at Houston on 25-of-44 passing for 370 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. He’s just that good, and Houston’s terrible secondary will once again have no answers for T.Y. Hilton.
HOUSTON OFFENSE: With Luck inevitably poised to win this game, the Texans need to make sure that he doesn’t have the ball. They must establish the run with Arian Foster and chew up a huge portion of the clock so that Luck is on the sideline for most of the afternoon.
Foster didn’t get a chance to do that in the prior meeting. The Colts jumped out to a big lead, so Foster was limited to just 20 carries, though he did churn out 109 rushing yards. Things have to be different this time for the Texans to have any sort of chance. If that means exceeding Foster’s season-high total of 28 attempts, then it must be done. The Colts are just 21st against the rush in terms of YPC (4.29), so Foster could definitely have a huge game.
Ryan Fitzpatrick will need Foster’s help because it’s possible that he’ll be without Andre Johnson, who suffered a concussion last week. If Johnson is out, the Colts won’t have much of a problem shutting down Houston’s aerial attack, given that Vontae Davis will smother DeAndre Hopkins. Davis missed this past Sunday’s game at Cleveland with a concussion of his own, but he’ll probably be back in the lineup.
RECAP: This line is pretty tight, so I don’t like either side very much. I kind of wish the Colts would’ve lost last week, which would make this a better play.
I’m picking Indianapolis though. Its homefield advantage is one of the two factors I’m considering. The other is that the Texans have disappointed against most non-crappy opponents they’ve battled this year, as they’ve fallen flat on their faces against the Eagles, Bengals, Steelers and Colts in the initial matchup.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I have no feel for this game. The Colts should win this one, but no margin of victory would really surprise me.
SUNDAY NOTES: This spread has risen to -7, making this less appealing. Pass.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Colts are coming off an emotional win, but they’ll get up for a divisional foe in an important game.
The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
I’m surprised there’s not more money on the Colts.
The Trends. Edge: Colts.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Colts 27, Texans 17
Colts -7 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Under 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Colts 17, Texans 10
Cincinnati Bengals (8-4-1) at Cleveland Browns (7-6)
Line: Pick. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Bengals -2.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Browns -4.
Sunday, Dec. 14, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Browns.
I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.
Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:
1. Why am I not surprised that Daniel Snyder is about to fire another coach? It’s getting ridiculous at this point, though I’m not going to criticize Snyder for making this particular inevitable move. He almost has to do it, as Jay Gruden and Robert Griffin haven’t been able to mesh at all. The two have undermined each other, so it’s either one or the other. Snyder has invested too much in Griffin to dump him, so Gruden has to be the one to go. It’s not like Griffin is a sure-fire sunk cost yet, as he had a terrific rookie campaign, so the potential is there.
I’m curious as to why Gruden was hired in the first place. It didn’t make sense, as Gruden’s offense doesn’t fit Griffin’s skill set very well. Because Griffin has been coddled too much, he needs someone to kick his a** like Bill Parcells. I don’t know who’s out there to possibly do that, however. Which estbalished coach wants to work for Snyder?
What really needs to happen is for Snyder and the front office to stop treating Griffin with kid gloves, but that’s not going to happen.
2. Speaking of Gruden, I made a note of this back in Week 1, but I never had much of a reason to post it. Until now. ESPN’s Britt McHenry, who looks like a real-life version of Barbie, was interviewing Gruden prior to the season opener. She asked, “What are your emotions right now?” His answer:
“My heart’s racing … because you’re so hot!”
OK, he didn’t say that last part, but I would have. It’s rare that ESPN makes a quality hire, so I have to commend them for that. Unfortunately, they’ve made so many other terrible hires, including…
3. You have no idea how sick I am of Trent Dilfer. He sometimes has smart things to say, but I’ve always found him to be annoyingly pompous. He’s taken it to another level with this Johnny Manziel-Brian Hoyer controversy. Dilfer has adamantly maintained that Hoyer should be Cleveland’s starting quarterback throughout this entire ordeal. It’s fine to have an opinion like that – even if he’s wrong in saying Hoyer gives Cleveland the best chance of winning – but how Dilfer is conveying his thoughts is what’s really bothering me.
If you didn’t hear it, Dilfer called those in favor of Manziel starting “box-score enthusiasts.” Dilfer has always carried himself as if he’s the King of Football, and anyone who hasn’t played has no idea what they’re talking about. The “box-score enthusiasts” line really bothered me though because the Cleveland fans at the game, who have been watching Hoyer suck ever since Alex Mack got hurt, are most definitely not “box-score enthusiasts.” Others, tuning into the game, who watched Hoyer sail countless passes over his receivers’ heads, are certainly not “box-score enthusiasts.” Are us “box-score enthusiasts” too stupid to realize that Hoyer, who has been woefully inaccurate the past four weeks, is actually playing well? Is sailing passes over everyone’s head suddenly a positive trait that something us “box-score enthusiasts” don’t get?
Dilfer, meanwhile, is committing two psychological fallacies: ad hominem and appeal to prestige. He’s insulting those who never played football – “box-score enthusiasts,” give me a f***ing break – and he only respects opinions of those who have played the game. Siskel and Ebert never directed or acted in movies, so were they just “box-office enthusiasts?” Were their opinions invalid? Of course not, so how is that any different for football?
Ugh. ESPN needs to get Dilfer off the air before I completely lose my mind.
CLEVELAND OFFENSE: It’s Johnny Football time! Cleveland fans couldn’t be more excited, as they’ll finally have a potential, legitimate starting quarterback to root for. I’ve ranted and raved about Hoyer enough; what matters going forward is how Manziel will perform.
I like Manziel’s chances in his first few starts. There will be no or very little tape on him over the next several weeks, so that’s always an advantage for the new signal-caller. The Bengals don’t have anything study, and I wouldn’t like their chances regardless. Cincinnati’s defense has played like crap this season when Vontaze Burfict has been out of the lineup, and now it’s official that the Pro Bowl-caliber linebacker is done for the year. The Bengals have not been able to get to the quarterback at all, producing the fewest sacks in the NFL (15). They’ve mustered just two sacks in the past five weeks, which is just ridiculous. Manziel will have plenty of time to find Josh Gordon. Hopefully he doesn’t overthrow him, like Hoyer did on countless occasions this past Sunday.
The Bengals have also been inept in terms of stopping opposing rushers, surrendering 4.42 YPC, ranking them 24th in the NFL. The Browns haven’t run well since losing Alex Mack, though they did gash Cincinnati for 169 yards in that Thursday night blowout. They could post a similar number in the rematch, as Manziel’s scrambling presence will open things up for Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West.
CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Andy Dalton is incredibly inconsistent, but his connection with A.J. Green is undeniable. Green is just so good that he masks Dalton’s weaknesses. Usually, that is. Dalton tends to put together an occasional stink bomb, much like he did the last time he battled Cleveland. It’s likely that Dalton will pick up where he left off in that Thursday night affair.
The issue, of course, is Joe Haden. The stud cornerback began the year slowly, but is currently playing on a high level. Haden has had Green’s number. Check out the following lines from Green in his past three meetings against the Browns in reverse chronological order: 3-23, 2-7 (!!), 7-51. With that in mind, is it surprising that in his previous three games versus Cleveland, Dalton is a combined 46-of-102 (45.1%) for 385 yards (3.78 YPA), three touchdowns, six interceptions and one lost fumble? How awful is that?
Making matters worse for Dalton, he’ll have to deal with a Cleveland pass rush that was exceptional this past Sunday. Andrew Luck was under siege on nearly every snap, so I imagine Dalton will have to endure the same type of pressure. Meanwhile, the Browns’ ground defense has limited their previous four opponents to 3.73 YPC, so the Bengals, who were limited to 65 rushing yards in the first meeting, won’t be able to establish much in terms of a running game.
RECAP: This may surprise you, but this is my December NFL Pick of the Month. Here’s why:
1. This spread makes zero sense to me. The Bengals and Browns are not that far apart, despite what their records might say. In fact, the metrics have the Browns rated higher. They’re about equal, as far as I’m concerned, and yet this spread is pick/Bengals -1. The Browns should be -3. We’re getting a field goal of value, which is huge considering we’ve passed the key number of three.
2. I mentioned that Haden has Green’s number. That’s huge because Cincinnati’s offense runs through Green. It’s no surprise that the Bengals mustered just seven points in the prior matchup.
3. Speaking of that first meeting, the Browns made it known that they knew all of the Bengals’ plays before they were being called. This has happened before in divisional matchups; most notably, the Rams went 1-0-1 against the 49ers one year when they stunk because of the same reason. These teams are even, so if the Browns can figure out what the Bengals are doing before each snap, that’s obviously huge.
4. There’s some concern with Dalton. He took a shot to the ribs in the fourth quarter last week, and he missed one play. He returned briefly to throw just one pass – a checkdown to Giovani Bernard – before sitting out garbage time. Is he completely healthy? Dalton, by the way, is just 2-6-1 ATS in road divisional games throughout his career.
5. Oh, and I haven’t gotten to Johnny Football yet! Manziel will energize the crowd and his teammates. Most of all, he’ll be a threat that the Bengals have no film on. We’ve seen quarterbacks step in succeed right away – Ryan Mallett, Austin Davis, etc. – because opponents can’t break down how to beat them. That’ll happen later with Manziel, just as it did for Mallett and Davis, but there’s no doubt that Cleveland will have the film advantage in this contest.
6. From a psychological standpoint, this game means more to the Browns because they’ll effectively be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss. The Bengals, meanwhile, would be hurt from a defeat as well, but they could survive. They also may have one eye on their Monday night battle against the Broncos next week. Getting ready for Manning requires extra preparation.
7. The sharps are on the Browns; they’ve bet this from +1 to pick with slight overall action coming in on the Bengals. Meanwhile, Pinnacle, the smartest book on the Web, wants its customers to bet the Bengals; as of this writing, they’re the only book listing this number at Cincinnati +1.
8. Here’s an awesome trend that I enjoy: Home underdogs coming off losses as home dogs are 63-41 against the spread since 2002. A 60-percent trend may not excite you, but if you look at teams in this situation coming off standard rest, and if you strip away all underdogs of 14-plus, you get 52-24 ATS, which is a 68.4-percent covering rate. The Browns technically aren’t home dogs now, but they were when this spread opened, and they’re a pick-em home team with money going on the visitor, so they’re effectively a home underdog.
I’m going with eight units on the Browns – increasing the wager, as previously mentioned – which may seem like a lot to bet on an unknown commodity, but A) unknown commodities tend to win, and B) this is more of a fade of the Bengals, plus a bet on the (slightly) better team, a poor line, and a great spot.
Good luck if you’re on this with me. Hopefully this ends up better than that horrible Kansas City game. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.
THURSDAY UPDATE: This spread will keep rising, so I’ll lock in the pick ’em available on Bovada. Really, anything under -3 is fine.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Browns. I thought about Marvin Lewis calling Manziel a “midget” earlier in the week, and that makes me think that the Bengals may not take him seriously. Also, it’s worth noting that Cincinnati is 5-11 ATS after playing Pittsburgh.
SUNDAY NOTES: The Browns have risen to -2.5, so I’m glad I locked this in. I’d still love them at -2.5 though. Jermaine Gresham is out for the Bengals, so with Joe Haden smothering A.J. Green. Andy Dalton’s options will be very limited.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: None.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Browns 24, Bengals 13
Browns PK (8 Units – December NFL Pick of the Month) — Incorrect; -$880
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bengals 30, Browns 0
Miami Dolphins (7-6) at New England Patriots (10-3)
Line: Patriots by 9. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Patriots -7.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -7.
Sunday, Dec. 14, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Patriots.
As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well.
Random College Football Notes:
1. It’s time to discuss the most important thing to come out of college football this past weekend: the results of the Dr. Pepper Challenge! If you didn’t see it, two chicks competed for $100,000 in tuition. One was some Asian girl named Zabrina Reyes, while the other was a hottie named Julia Denney:
I planned to go into this rooting against both girls, hoping they’d make no shots and thus would have to forfeit the money. But then I heard that Zabrina the Teenage Witch wanted to become a neuroscientist. Julia, meanwhile, wanted to be a podiatrist, or something of that nature. I rooted for Julia because she was better-looking.
I have a girlfriend, so this next part doesn’t matter as much to me, but single guys may want to take note: Julia does not have a boyfriend. Whereas Zabrina was throwing footballs normally, Julia was trying to do chest passes, which mostly failed. She obviously did not have a boyfriend (or a female friend who loves football) teaching her how to appropriately pass the ball, so if I were you single guys, I’d stalk the hell out of her and become her boyfriend. Worst-case scenario, you’ll become friends with a podiatrist and get some free check-ups for your feet!
2. As for the actual games, they were highly entertaining. The Florida State-Georgia Tech game was especially great. I DVRed it because I had my cousin-in-law’s birthday party Saturday night. I was able to fast forward through commercials and halftime. I bet Georgia Tech +4, so once the Seminoles established a nine-point lead, I figured I was screwed – and then I just checked the final score and shouted, “HOLY S*** BACKDOOR COVER IN MY FAVOR FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER!”
This was so much less stressful than watching a game live, and it was quicker too. I may have to start doing this more often for all the games. Tight NFL contests in which I have heavy units take years off my life, so doing this may allow me to avoid a heart attack at 40.
3. Thoughts on the first college football playoff: It’s kind of stupid that the selection committee picked Ohio State over both TCU and Baylor when it was obvious that both Big XII schools were vastly superior. The Big Ten blows – I’m saying this as a Penn State alumnus – and Ohio State has barely beaten crap teams like Indiana and Minnesota recently. Either TCU or Baylor would’ve been the better choice, but I’m not complaining because Alabama is such an easy pick over the Buckeyes.
As for TCU and Baylor, the Big XII should’ve just hosted a conference championship last weekend. The rules state they can’t because they have just 10 teams in the conference, but I would have done so anyway. What was the NCAA going to do? Send in the National Guard to stop it from happening? Of course not, because the NCAA is a decaying organization. If I were the Big XII commissioner I would’ve told the NCAA to go f*** itself and had Baylor and TCU battle each other on a neutral field.
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick aren’t people who forget about losses, and there’s no doubt that both men have the Week 1 defeat to the Dolphins still fresh in their mind. Brady was awful at South Beach, going 29-of-56 for only 249 yards, one touchdown and two lost fumbles, as he and the rest of his teammates melted under the hot Miami sun.
Brady, of course, has been much better over the past couple of months, thanks in major part to Rob Gronkowski, who is unstoppable when healthy. The Dolphins actually happen to be the league’s best team when it comes to defending tight ends, so Gronkowski would ordinarily have a tough matchup. However, safety Louis Delmas was lost for the season with a torn ACL, so his absence will definitely have a huge impact on this game.
Gronkowski won’t be the only Patriot who will have a huge impact on this contest. The Dolphins have other issues in their secondary, so Brady will be able to spread the ball effectively. Meanwhile, LeGarrette Blount figures to have a quality performance on the ground, as Miami has struggled to defend the run the past three weeks.
MIAMI OFFENSE: Throwing the ball on the Patriots is nearly impossible, given the talent that New England has in its secondary. However, Darrelle Revis and company may not matter much in this contest because Ryan Tannehill seldom throws downfield. He’s had two easy matchups against the Jets and Ravens last week, but he couldn’t even exploit those weak secondaries.
The Dolphins will instead focus on running the zone-read, purely rushing the ball and completing intermediate passes to Jarvis Landry. The first two options could be difficult against the Patriots, however, who have limited four of their previous five opponents to 60 rushing yards or fewer. Miller could conceivably break that streak, but finding lanes to burst through will be an issue.
Landry, meanwhile, could have problems as well. Belichick does many things exceptionally well, but his forte is taking away the best thing an opposing team does. He undoubtedly has taken notice that Tannehill has developed a strong rapport with Landry, so he’ll probably game plan to take that option away from the Miami quarterback.
RECAP: This is not a good number. This spread is too high for a divisional matchup that tends to be close. The Dolphins thrive as underdogs, and if they covered at Denver, they could certainly beat the number here.
Having said that, I’m picking the Patriots. The Dolphins have seemed off the past couple of weeks, but the bigger factor is revenge. Bill Belichick is 11-4 against the spread versus a team after losing to them the same year.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The Dolphins suddenly have some injury issues, as linebackers Koa Misi and Jelani Jenkins are expected to be out. They were struggling against the run even with those players in the lineup.
SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps and public are on the Patriots, which is why this has been bet up to -9. There’s too much money on New England, and this is the sort of game Vegas usually wins.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Dolphins need to win this one, but the Patriots will be out for revenge.
The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
No surprise here. This might be 85-15.
The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Patriots 26, Dolphins 16
Patriots -9 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 41, Dolphins 13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-11) at Carolina Panthers (4-8-1)
Line: Panthers by 3.5. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Panthers -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -3.5.
Sunday, Dec. 14, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Panthers.
If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Four years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.
I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for this past season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses.
Check out the new Spam Mails page here with my most recent responses.
CAROLINA OFFENSE: The good news is that Cam Newton is OK, and that trumps everything. Newton was involved in a brutal car wreck Tuesday morning. I first found out when I checked the spreads and saw that the Carolina-Tampa line was down. I checked Twitter, and there it was: Newton was heading to the hospital. Luckily, he just suffered a minor back injury, which is similar to the one Tony Romo endured in the Monday night game against Washington.
However, there is football to be played, and the bad news is that Newton is expected to miss this contest. If only Dr. Jerry Jones happened to be around to clear him! Dr. Jones, unfortunately, does not associate himself with the Panthers, so Derek Anderson will draw his second start of the season, coincidentally against the Buccaneers again. Anderson was solid back in Week 1, going 24-of-34 for 230 yards and two touchdowns. There’s no guarantee the Buccaneers will be able to stop him, but at least they won’t have to deal with Newton, who was extremely mobile last week.
The Buccaneers have some injury issues of their own. Gerald McCoy left the game at Detroit early on. He managed to return, but didn’t look like himself. Lavonte David then suffered a concussion. There’s no word on his ability for Week 15, but his absence would be huge. Anderson will shred a David-less Tampa defense, especially if McCoy isn’t 100 percent.
TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers may use a different quarterback as well, though the change will have nothing to do with an injury. Josh McCown has just been that bad, as he’s inexplicably been very careless with the ball. Mike Glennon, however, is inaccurate and ineffective, but Tampa might as well see what it has with him before spending the No. 1 overall pick on Marcus Mariota, which is what I have happening in my 2015 NFL Mock Draft.
Regardless of who the quarterback is, Carolina’s defensive front figures to dominate. The Panthers haven’t been the same ever since Greg Hardy was suspended, but their front line looked great last week, as Charles Johnson, Kawann Short and Mario Addison caused havoc in the Saints’ backfield. It’s been established that the Buccaneers can’t block – no semblance of a running game doesn’t help matters – so the Panthers should be able to add to their sack total.
RECAP: I have no idea what to make of this game. I liked the Buccaneers when this number was higher, but this is now more manageable for Carolina to cover. The Panthers also threw me way off with their demolition of New Orleans last week. I want to see if they can maintain that sort of success before I do anything with them.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I picked the Panthers to cover, and I’ll remain on them, but I’m secretly hoping that Derek Anderson bombs, which would only help the Adventures of Derek Anderson’s Magic Flask in my NFL Power Rankings.
SUNDAY NOTES: I wasn’t going to bet the Panthers at -3, so I’m obviously not going to touch them at -3.5.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
A lean on the host.
The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Panthers 20, Buccaneers 16
Panthers -3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Panthers 19, Buccaneers 17
Washington Redskins (3-10) at New York Giants (4-9)
Line: Giants by 7. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Giants -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Giants -5.5.
Sunday, Dec. 14, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Giants.
This is the normal spot for the Video of the Week, but I had to show you this link. It’s the box score of an actual football game between Canada and Kuwait. I love the box score. How did the Kuwait quarterback complete seven passes for four yards? I wish I could have seen this demolition.
WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I don’t need to tell you that the Redskins are a complete mess. Jay Gruden needs to go, and someone needs to come in to kick Robert Griffin’s a**. Someone like Bill Parcells would be nice, but I don’t know who in their right mind would want to work for Daniel Snyder.
Griffin also needs to start. There’s no point in going with Colt McCoy anymore, who just isn’t starting material. He’s a good guy and a nice backup to have, but he’s just too overwhelmed. He could barely move the ball at all against the Rams, though DeSean Jackson’s absence did make things more difficult. If Jackson is back – that’s still up in the air – the Redskins will obviously be more explosive on this side of the ball, though I still wouldn’t trust Griffin to connect with him on a consistent basis.
Griffin’s return will open things up for Alfred Morris, however, who was completely bottled up last week. Given that they’ll have to worry about Griffin taking off, the Giants’ 31st-ranked ground defense will have issues dealing with Morris.
NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’s tough to tell whether the Redskins are more of a mess on the offensive or defensive side of the ball. It’s probably the latter, which is sad. They at least moved the chains at Indianapolis, but their defense can’t stop anyone. Thanks to blown coverage after blown coverage, opposing scoring attacks are lighting up Washington’s secondary as if the actual games are seven-on-seven drills.
Eli Manning has been hit or miss this year – mostly the latter – but he’ll be able to dissect the Redskins, just as he did in Week 4. Manning went 28-of-39 for 300 yards, four touchdowns and an interception at Washington – and that was before he had Odell Beckham at his disposal. Beckham has been unstoppable since stepping in for Victor Cruz, and the Redskins will have absolutely no answer for him.
One area in which Washington will win on this side of the ball is its attempt to stop the Giants’ rushing attack. The Redskins still have a top-10 run defense despite all of their troubles, and Rashad Jennings isn’t completely healthy.
RECAP: The Redskins are in a tremendous spot. Teams that lose two consecutive games by 14-plus are usually good bets. They also have revenge on their side in the wake of that New York blowout. Meanwhile, the Giants are a favorite of six-plus that will win six or fewer games this season. That’s usually an automatic fade.
If I trusted the Redskins, this would be a three- or a four-unit wager. However, Washington has cost me way too much money this season. The team, which is 4-9 against the spread, is poisonous. I recommend staying away. The Redskins could definitely cover, but they could just as easily quit on lame-duck coach Jay Gruden.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Jay Gruden is being stupid by opting to start Colt McCoy again, but perhaps that’ll help in this one game. I imagine the Giants were preparing for Robert Griffin for the early part of the week, so this could catch them off-guard. Then again, how much preparation do you need for McCoy anyway? I’m passing on this game.
SUNDAY NOTES: The Redskins are more appealing at +7, but I don’t want to bet on Colt McCoy, who is 10-18 against the spread as a starter.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
Who knows what Washington’s mindset is?
The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
I’m surprised there’s not more money on the Giants.
The Trends. Edge: None.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Giants 24, Redskins 21
Redskins +7 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Giants 24, Redskins 13
Green Bay Packers (10-3) at Buffalo Bills (7-6)
Line: Packers by 5.5. Total: 49.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Packers -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -3.
Sunday, Dec. 14, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Packers.
THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS
Remember when Tom Brady used to be the most clutch quarterback in the NFL? He had that epic drive against the Rams in the Super Bowl. He then engineered numerous other fourth-quarter comebacks, including one to defeat the Panthers two years later to claim his second Lombardi trophy. After he earned his third, there was a wide-spread belief that he would pass both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw and eventually earn five or more total rings.
Well, Brady’s been stuck on three. He’s no longer clutch; in fact, he often melts down in the fourth quarters of big matchups. He seems to really care about some games – especially those involving Tim Tebow – but then he’s so lackadaisical in others.
So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona. Including this one…
Check out the newest chapter of the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts.
BUFFALO OFFENSE: It’s a shame for the Bills that they don’t have a better quarterback, because even an average signal-caller could take advantage of this matchup. Everyone saw the Packers’ great liability in the second half of the Monday night game, which is the secondary; it looked completely helpless and nearly blew a 31-7 lead. Sam Shields came into the game off a concussion, and he looked like he thought he was in the 1950s based on how poorly he played.
The matchup here is obvious. If Julio Jones could produce 259 receiving yards in less than 60 minutes of action, Sammy Watkins should be able to do something similar, right? Well, that goes back to the quarterbacking situation. Kyle Orton sucks. He holds on to the ball too long and throws weak passes that get picked off. It’s definitely possible that he could have a good game, but I wouldn’t trust him to lead the Bills to victory.
It would help if Buffalo could run the ball more effectively, but that hasn’t been the case. C.J. Spiller is out, while Fred Jackson looks done, as he’s averaged 3.3 yards per carry or worse in three of his four previous games. He also isn’t doing much with his catches. Steven Jackson showed us that the Packers can be exploited via the run, but Fred Jackson is not the player who can take advantage of that liability.
GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers was unstoppable in the first half of the Atlanta game, but I didn’t like the look of the offense following intermission. The unit scored just 12 points, as it looked very complacent. If the Packers think they can just roll in to Buffalo and prevail, they’re greatly mistaken.
The Bills’ defense is very good. For proof, just check out Peyton Manning’s lack of success at home last Sunday, when he had his consecutive-touchdown streak snapped. Buffalo puts a tremendous amount of pressure on the quarterback, ranking first in the NFL in sacks. Something will have to give, however, as Rodgers has enjoyed exceptional protection from his offensive line over the past couple of months.
Buffalo should at least be able to put the clamps on the run. The Packers’ scoring attack is so much more efficient when Eddie Lacy is running wild, but the big back may have trouble finding lanes this Sunday, given that the Bills are eighth against the rush in terms of YPC (3.76).
RECAP: Everyone is betting heavily on the Packers, but did you know that they’ve won just one game by more than three points on the road this year? That came against the hapless Bears. The Bills are obviously better than Chicago, so I like their chances of covering.
Having said that, I’m not going wager on Buffalo. I have no interest in betting money against a red-hot Rodgers unless I’m getting a touchdown, at least. Also, it seems like the Bills have fallen flat on their faces in every big home game against elite opponents this year.
THURSDAY UPDATE: I’m putting a unit on the Bills +5.5 -105, which is available on Bovada right now. The sharps are pounding Buffalo, and there is currently 85-15
FINAL THOUGHTS: Here’s a cool trend: The Bills are 23-6 ATS following a road loss. They’ve rebounded well, and they should be playing their very best in this game. The problem is that Aaron Rodgers is just too good and could cover this game by himself.
SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps have pounded this down to +3.5. I wouldn’t bet that number. There’s no value there anymore.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
This has a chance to be 85-15, but there’s sharp support for Buffalo.
The Trends. Edge: Packers.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Packers 30, Bills 27
Bills +5.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 49.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bills 21, Packers 13
Week 15 NFL Picks – Late Games
NY Jets�at�Tennessee, Denver�at�San Diego, San Francisco�at�Seattle, Dallas�at�Philadelphia, New Orleans�at�Chicago
Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
NFL Picks - Nov. 20
2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20
NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19
Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4
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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905
2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)
2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905
2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)
2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
| Cowboys: 6-3 |
Bears: 5-5 |
Bucs: 6-4 |
49ers: 6-4 |
| Eagles: 5-5 |
Lions: 9-1 |
Falcons: 6-5 |
Cardinals: 8-2 |
| Giants: 3-6 |
Packers: 6-3 |
Panthers: 4-6 |
Rams: 5-5 |
| Redskins: 5-5 |
Vikings: 4-6 |
Saints: 5-6 |
Seahawks: 6-3 |
| |
|
||
| Bills: 4-7 |
Bengals: 2-9 |
Colts: 6-5 |
Broncos: 7-4 |
| Dolphins: 4-6 |
Browns: 3-7 |
Jaguars: 3-7 |
Chargers: 6-3 |
| Jets: 6-5 |
Ravens: 5-5 |
Texans: 5-6 |
Chiefs: 4-5 |
| Patriots: 6-3 |
Steelers: 4-6 |
Titans: 6-3 |
Raiders: 5-5 |
| |
|
||
| Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561) |
2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387) |
2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441) |
2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211) |
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446) |
2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293) |
Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185) |
Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37) |
2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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