NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2012

NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 6-9-1 (-$1,440)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2012): 3-13 (-$2,250)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2012): 8-7-1 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2012): 7-9 (+$70)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2012): 7-8 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2012): 7-7 (-$340)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2012): 9-5 (+$1,670)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2012): 7-5-1 (+$420)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2012): 6-8 (-$450)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2012): 8-6 (+$240)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2012): 8-6 (+$730)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2012): 6-7-1 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2012): 5-9-2 (-$1,080)

NFL Picks (2012): 87-99-6 (-$1,250)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 3, 6:05 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 13 NFL Picks – Late Games

New Orleans Saints (5-6) at Atlanta Falcons (10-1)
Line: Falcons by 3.5. Total: 55.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Falcons -6.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Falcons -6.
Thursday, Nov. 29, 8:20 ET
Discuss Week 13 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

Week 13 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday, per the new schedule. I’ve received mix reaction to this, so voice your opinion via e-mail or in the comment box below. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

WEEK 12 RECAP: This may surprise you considering that I finished 5-9-2, -$1,080, but I feel as though I’m coming off a solid week. Solid, but frustrating because I was on the right side of four out of my five top plays, but won only two of them. I need to rant:

Steelers -1 over Browns (4 units): The Steelers committed eight turnovers, becoming just the 13th team to do so since 1989, and yet were only a touchdown away from pushing. Two early turnovers gave Cleveland a lead, which prompted Charlie Batch to force it downfield.

There’s no way to predict that a team will fumble the ball five times. In fact, I’m pretty sure that no team has ever had all four of its running backs each lose a fumble in a single contest. And it’s not like the Steelers have been dealing with this issue the entire season; going into Week 12, they were right in the middle of the pack in terms of losing fumbles (16th; 0.7 lost fumbles per game).

Fumbles are the flukiest plays in football, so this was just horrible luck. There’s no doubt the Steelers would have won if it weren’t for those give-aways.

Chargers +1 over Ravens (3 units): Ugh, how do you allow a team to convert a 4th-and-29 on a checkdown!? The calls were horrendous too – both the spot and the missed block in the back – and it seemed like Gene Steratore didn’t want to overturn such a great effort by Ray Rice despite the fact it was very obvious that the ball was nowhere near the 33.5. I’ll have much more on this later with photographic proof.

This is another situation where it was right side, wrong result. The Ravens trailed throughout the whole game and had no business winning it.

Titans -3.5 over Jaguars (4 units): This was wrong side, wrong result. Ugh. The Titans have cost me so much money this year. I pick spots – not teams – so it’s not like I’m infatuated with them or anything. But perhaps I need to start weeding out which squads I select – teams like the Raiders and Eagles, who don’t try, or the Titans, Cowboys and Chargers, who always seem to disappoint in certain situations.

Which situations, exactly? Well, I looked it up, and Tennessee under Mike Munchak is 2-7 against the spread when favored and also 2-7 ATS when playing an opponent with a winning record, so maybe I just have to avoid the team in those dynamics.

Broncos -10 over Chiefs and Buccaneers +1 over Falcons (1 unit each): I feel like this epitomized my luck this weekend. I was fortunate the Falcons didn’t cover because Matt Bryant missed two field goals, including one chip shot. Conversely though, the Broncos could have covered had Matt Prater, who was 15-of-17 entering the game, hit one of his two errant kicks, including one chip shot.

So, it seems like a wash, right? Not exactly – because the Buccaneers didn’t cover. Where I was screwed, I lost, and where I lucked out, nothing happened.

This was just one of those weekends that are unavoidable, it seems.

Now, it’s time to review what the media overreacted to last week:

1. Regarding the Patriots: “They cannot play the same level of football without Rob Gronkowski.” — Bob Ryan. “They cannot duplicate his numbers.” — senile newspaper writer Woody Paige. O rly?

2. Everyone seems to think the 49ers are the best team in the NFL, while the Bears absolutely suck, based on what happened on Monday night.

3. Everyone on ESPN was trashing the Falcons for nearly losing to Arizona.

Fading the media went a near-perfect 3-0-1. Of course stupid me picked against the 49ers and Bears. Ugh. Here’s what the media is overreacting to this time:

1. Everyone is so down on the Packers, it almost made me forget that they won five games in a row prior to playing the Giants.

2. The Steelers have no chance without Ben Roethlisberger. Well, if the running backs didn’t lose four fumbles, they would’ve beaten the Browns, and no one would be talking about Pittsburgh in a negative light.

3. People seem to be dismissing the Seahawks even though they were in a tough spot, playing in a 1 p.m. East Coast game, where they always struggle.

I’ll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: What’s with these divisional matchups being so bunched together? Pittsburgh and Baltimore have two battles in three weeks, while the Falcons and Saints are playing each other twice in four weeks. I feel like I was dead on in my Week 10 Atlanta-New Orleans write-up, so I’ll copy-paste and see if anything has changed since…

Do I really need to talk about this? The Saints have one of the worst defenses in NFL history. Yeah, they just limited the Eagles to 13 points, but that was just Philadelphia being sloppy in the red zone, which has been a common occurrence all season. That has to change in this contest, right? Well, maybe it won’t. The Falcons actually haven’t been as sharp as you’d think deep in opposing territory. They’re only 11th in the NFL in red-zone touchdowns, and they’ve converted only 40 percent of their red-zone trips into touchdowns in the past three games, which puts them in the bottom 10.

The Falcons are now 13th in that category. They failed to convert touchdowns against the Saints all afternoon, culminating with a failed trip on a first-and-goal at the 1-yard line. The big problem is Michael Turner, yet the coaching staff keeps giving him touches. Seriously, why did he carry the ball 13 times against Tampa Bay? Enough already.

Having said that, Atlanta could easily remedy this issue Sunday afternoon because New Orleans’ defense is so bad. The Saints can’t stop the run, contain the pass or get to the other quarterback, so the Falcons should be able to do whatever they want, no matter where they are on the field.

Well, the Falcons moved the chains effectively within in the 20s, so that much was true. Nothing has changed since.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: And here’s what I wrote about the Saints’ scoring attack…

Atlanta has its own issues on defense. The team has struggled versus aerial attacks in recent weeks, surrendering an 8.4 YPA in their previous four games. Tony Romo just went up and down the field on the Falcons, so why can’t Drew Brees? The difference will be that Brees and his weapons won’t screw up by shooting themselves in the foot like the Cowboys did.

The Falcons’ defensive YPA is slightly better now at 7.6, but that’s helped by playing Ryan Lindley for three quarters. There’s no reason why Brees won’t be able to torch Atlanta’s secondary.

Unlike the Falcons, New Orleans won’t have issues in the red zone. The Saints are No. 1 in that territory, scoring touchdowns 72 percent of the time. The Falcons can sometimes get decent pressure on the quarterback, but their pass rush is not strong enough to disrupt Brees from lighting up the scoreboard.

The Saints are even better in the red zone now, as their scoring rate has increased to 73.5 percent. Atlanta, by the way, has just seven sacks in its previous four games.

The Saints’ rushing attack will make Brees even more potent. The three running backs rush the ball extremely well Monday night and should be able to pick up where they left off; Atlanta is just 29th versus the run (4.7 YPC).

The Falcons have improved to 27th in this department, thanks to holding the Buccaneers to 50 rushing yards. But before you get too excited, Atlanta surrendered 137 yards on the ground to the Cardinals the week before.

RECAP: As for my Week 10 recap…

I’m taking the Saints for three units. They’re the better team in the red zone, which is important in a potential shootout like this. They’re also great at home, and I love getting Drew Brees as an underdog. Seriously, how many times are we going to get Brees as a home underdog, especially in a divisional affair?

And once again, I’m placing three units on New Orleans for all of the reasons above, save for the home stuff – which you can easily just replace with Brees coming off a loss. He’s 22-12 against the spread following a defeat with the Saints – 8-2 ATS if he’s an underdog in the situation.

FINAL THOUGHTS: To those who e-mailed me, I know the Saints are at home. The italicized stuff is from Week 10. I still like the Saints for three units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Saints need to win. The Falcons want revenge.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 57% (79,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won 10 of the last 12 meetings.

Drew Brees is 32-22 ATS as an underdog.

Drew Brees is 22-12 ATS after a loss with the Saints (8-2 ATS as an underdog).

Matt Ryan is 22-12 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Saints -3.5.

Opening Total: 55.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Saints 28, Falcons 24
Saints +3.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 56 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Falcons 23, Saints 13
NFL Game Recaps

Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at Chicago Bears (8-3)
Line: Bears by 3. Total: 37.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Cutler).
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Bears -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Bears -4.
Sunday, Dec. 2, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 13 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

VEGAS RECAP: The sportsbooks lost a record amount of money three weeks ago when all seven highly bet teams covered. They had a very slight recovery afterward, but the weekend after that was another brutal one. As for Week 12, the books recovered a bit again. Four out of the eight highly bet teams covered (Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Panthers lost money; Browns, Chiefs, Dolphins, Giants won money), but remember that sportsbooks get the vig, unlike us poor peons.

I’ll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I’ll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Seattle’s defense has three advantages on this side of the football. The first is obvious. The Bears’ offensive line is a joke, while the Seahawks are tied for the fifth-most sacks in the NFL. The tackles don’t stand a chance against Chris Clemons and Bruce Irvin.

Jay Cutler will be under heavy pressure all afternoon, which could be a recipe for disaster considering how awesome Seattle’s secondary is. Both Pro Bowl cornerbacks will play in this game – they’re appealing their four-game suspensions – and they match up well against Brandon Marshall because of their size. If Marshall’s smothered, Cutler won’t have anyone else to throw to.

The third edge is in the running game. The Seahawks have been gashed on the ground for weeks now because Brandon Mebane and Red Bryant have both been terrible since the beginning of October for whatever reason. However, Matt Forte is likely out, which means the overrated Michael Bush will get the majority of the workload. Bush is averaging 3.5 yards per carry this season, which pretty much lines up with his 3.8 YPC mark with the Raiders last year. Stopping him won’t be much of a challenge.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Bears, on the other hand, will have their hands full with Marshawn Lynch. Chicago is perceived to have this stalwart defense, but it has struggled mightily to stop opposing backs. The team ranks 18th versus the run (4.4 YPC) but has surrendered 5.3 YPC to its previous four opponents.

Russell Wilson needs Lynch to get going because the Bears will be salivating at the prospect of forcing a rookie quarterback into committing several turnovers. Chicago leads the NFL in take-aways, but taking advantage of Wilson’s inexperience might just be more difficult than it seems because the first-year signal-caller has been guilty of only three turnovers since Week 6.

The Bears are actually one of the teams tied with the Seahawks in sacks (30), but Seattle may take the lead in this department because of Wilson’s mobility. Whereas Cutler has taken 35 sacks, Wilson has been brought down behind the line of scrimmage on just 21 occasions. He’ll once again buy time to give himself a chance to make things happen downfield.

RECAP: The Seahawks are one of the five teams I plan on using in the Super Contest. I’m wagering three units on them, and here’s why:

1. People look at this game and want to bet the Bears because the Seahawks suck on the road. Seattle’s visiting record isn’t very good – but only when the team played its most recent contest at home. The Seahawks are actually about .500 in terms of covering the spread playing away immediately after being on the road.

2. That plays into my next point, which is that teams tend to cover at a two-thirds clip in their second-consecutive road tilt. The Seahawks have actually been exceptional in this situation coming off a loss.

3. The Bears, meanwhile, may not be entirely focused because they have the Vikings and Packers after this non-divisional opponent. They can lose this game and still win the NFC Central/North if they take care of business the next two weeks, so why should they care about Seattle?

4. The only teams Chicago has beaten that currently has a winning record are the blegh Vikings and Indianapolis – and that happened to be Andrew Luck’s first game ever.

5. The public is pounding the host, yet the spread has dropped from -4.5 to -3.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No change. I still really like the Seahawks.

The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.

The Bears have the Vikings and Packers after this non-divisional opponent. Breather Alert.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

No one thinks Seattle has a chance.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 68% (74,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

Seahawks are 15-29 ATS on the road since 2006 if they’re not coming off an away loss.

Jay Cutler is 29-47 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Bears -4.5.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Seahawks 24, Bears 20
Seahawks +3.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 37 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 23, Bears 17

Minnesota Vikings (6-5) at Green Bay Packers (7-4)
Line: Packers by 7. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -9.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Packers -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Packers -7.5.
Sunday, Dec. 2, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 13 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Packers.

HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails. Here are some brief ones from the pick comment boards:

Walter, Long time follower, first time poster. You are 7-8 straight up this week. No offense, but that is just plain horrible. I usually don’t pay attention to all the trolls on your forum, but damn… I, for one, will no longer be using this site as a reference. You really should spend more time watching football than making fake accounts on nfl.com and writing up these little stories no one cares about. I’m happy I have Philly tonight in my pool, because you picked Carolina and TBH, my mom picks better than you. I’m not even kidding. JACKIE JETS 118-55-1 keep in mind that’s straight up, but still. You suck walter, and here’s one less follower. Have a good life.

I’m no longer using this site as a reference either. I’ll be logging on to JackieJetsFootball.com from now on.

How many games did Walt win today like 3? Fade Walt for big profits!

Don’t hate. Winning three games takes mad skills.

These two are from my NFL Power Rankings:

Hey Walturd, You ugly porcupine. Get it right. 32. Chieftopuffs, 31. bEaglekillerss, 30. Raiderettes, and 29. Panthies. Nuff said. Let’s bet against this flower picking quartet and make money the rest of the year. I can’t believe I followed you on these bums this past weekend. Arrgggg!!!!!

Like most degenerate ugly porcupines, I love betting on crappy teams.

Am I not allowed to express my opinions? Or should I kiss Walt’s a** every time he posts something?

Yes. Continue to kiss my a**. I enjoy it.

I lost, so of course I heard from pgup9, who had his lotion and/or tissues prepared so he could whack off to my incorrect picks:

Pgup9 didn’t congratulate me during my winning weeks, but that’s only because his mother grounded him and didn’t allow him to use the computer.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: What the hell happened to the Packers last week? Ten points? It was Aaron Rodgers’ worst loss of his career. Green Bay simply didn’t look functional; the receivers couldn’t get open, the offensive line failed to open any running lanes and Rodgers was being harassed on almost every play by New York’s pass rush. It was a complete mess.

Fortunately for the Packers, they get Greg Jennings back this week, so he’ll provide a big boost in the receiving corps. It’s unclear if Jennings is in playing shape yet, but considering that he was ready to go against the Giants, he should at least be solid. This is obviously bad news for the Vikings, who haven’t been very good against the pass in recent weeks, surrendering 7.2 YPA to their previous four opponents.

The problem is a lacking pass rush. It has completely disappeared. Minnesota recorded 22 sacks in the first seven weeks of the season, but has just five sacks since. That obviously has to change if the Vikings want to contain Rodgers. On the bright side, they won’t have to worry about James Starks or Alex Green coming out of the backfield because both runners are terrible.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings cannot go down by double digits early like they did against the Bears. If they do, their offense won’t be able to put up points because it’s so predicated on running the ball. Minnesota actually ran well at Chicago, but could only give Adrian Peterson 18 carries because it trailed throughout.

The Vikings should have similar success moving the chains on the ground. The Giants just gashed the banged-up Packers for 135 rushing yards, and Peterson is clearly superior to anyone New York has in its backfield.

The problem though is Christian Ponder. He started hot, but has committed 11 turnovers since Week 5 and has maintained a completion percentage better than 54.3 in just one of his previous five starts. He’s a mess right now, and it doesn’t help that Percy Harvin has been out the past couple of games. Harvin is tentatively questionable for this contest. The good news though is that Kyle Rudolph, who suffered a concussion at Chicago, has been cleared to play.

RECAP: I love betting on elite quarterbacks coming off a loss, but not when the spread is as high as this. Aaron Rodgers is 11-4 against the spread following a defeat, but only 4-3 ATS when the line is 7.5 or higher.

With that in mind, I like the Vikings a little bit. As mentioned in the Seahawks-Bears capsule, teams playing in their second-straight road tilt tend to cover at a high rate. Minnesota also has a history of playing close games at Lambeau, losing by double digits just twice since 2002.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Still a slight lean on the Vikings.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Both teams should be sharp.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
Slight lean on the host.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 62% (60,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won the last 4 meetings.

Vikings are 8-18 ATS outdoors since 2008.

Packers are 19-11 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Aaron Rodgers is 38-22 ATS since 2009 (8-4 ATS as a favorite of 12+).

Aaron Rodgers is 11-4 ATS after a loss (just 4-3 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Opening Line: Packers -9.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Packers 23, Vikings 20
Vikings +7 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Packers 23, Vikings 14

San Francisco 49ers (8-2-1) at St. Louis Rams (4-6-1)
Line: 49ers by 7. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -6.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): 49ers -6.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): 49ers -6.5.
Sunday, Dec. 2, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 13 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

The most illiterate sports bettor in the world is a man named the Real John Moss. He loves to e-mail me and talk to me on G-chat. He didn’t update his Web site, https://sites.google.com/site/realjohnmossfootball/ this past week, but sent me a friend request on Facebook!

Here’s a link to the Real John Moss’ Facebook Profile.

I don’t know what his privacy settings are, but if you can’t see anything, here’s the top of his profile:

How can all of the hot girls resist that? Here’s the “about” in his info:

So much for that “beding adbice.” He hasn’t updated his site since Week 3!

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: See what I mean? This is yet another instance in which two divisional opponents are playing two games so closely together. I don’t understand why Roger Goodell did this. It’s stupid because if a team has a major injury or two, it gives the other a big advantage because it can sweep the season series.

Fortunately, neither team has that issue in these two matchups. The closest situation to that is Danny Amendola, who is listed as probable with a foot injury. Having Amendola in the lineup will be key because he caught 11 balls for 102 yards back in the Week 10 meeting. On top of that, he had a 79-yard reception in overtime negated because of a very late (albeit fair) illegal formation penalty.

I have to believe that the 49ers will game plan a way to eliminate Amendola as an option for Sam Bradford, but I don’t think they’ll be able to do anything about Steven Jackson, who ran like a madman in the previous matchup, gaining 101 yards and a touchdown on 29 carries. San Francisco has surrendered at least 110 rushing yards to four opponents this year.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: I’d say things will be different for the 49ers this time around because of the quarterback change, but the Rams got a first-hand look at Colin Kaepernick when he stepped in for a concussed Alex Smith in the second quarter. Kaepernick didn’t have a great passing performance, but he befuddled St. Louis on the ground, scrambling on eight occasions for 66 yards and a touchdown.

Kaepernick actually has some experience under his belt, so I have no doubt that he’ll be better aerially. After all, the Rams had issues containing Ryan Lindley in the first half last week.

The Rams will be so preoccupied with Kaepernick that they’ll have issues stopping Frank Gore once again. Gore gained 97 yards on just 21 tries the last time he battled St. Louis. Nothing has really changed in the three weeks since the teams saw each other, so Gore should be able to approach the century mark in this rematch.

RECAP: I don’t like the Rams enough to bet them, but I will pick them to cover. Two reasons: One, the public is pounding the 49ers, and two, this spread just seems too high. St. Louis is a highly competitive team that has lost by more than 10 points just three times all year.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I would still take the Rams if I had to.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

No surprise about this betting action.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 87% (68,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: 49ers have won 11 of the last 14 meetings excluding the 2012 tie.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 13 NFL Pick: 49ers 24, Rams 19
Rams +7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Rams 16, 49ers 13

Arizona Cardinals (4-7) at New York Jets (4-7)
Line: Jets by 6. Total: 37.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Jets -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Jets -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Jets -4.5.
Sunday, Dec. 2, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 13 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Jets.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I always found it amazing that athletes find ways to go bankrupt despite making so much money. It’s just inconceivable. Unless you’re a complete dumba**, there’s no way for you to lose millions of dollars. But these guys just find a way. In fact, according to AccountingDegree.com, within two years of retiring, three in four NFL players are under financial stress or bankrupt.

My contact at AccountingDegree.com sent this link over to me – it’s a diagram of how NFL players go bankrupt. I think you’ll find it interesting.

2. Warren Sapp wasn’t in the AccountingDegree.com graphic, but he easily could have been. Speaking of Sapp, I wrote about two of his cohorts on the NFL Network last week. Well, Michael Irvin and Deion Sanders followed up with these grammatically incorrect gems two weeks ago:

“This defense don’t travel well.” – Irvin

“The Dolphin are not going to the playoff, let’s stop foolin’ ourself.” – Deion

Perhaps the NFL Network will soon stop foolin’ itselves into thinking that these guys provide quality football analysis.

3. Speaking of the NFL Network, Steve Mariucci gave some terrible analysis a couple of weeks ago when discussing Andy Reid. When the subject of Reid’s potential firing came up, the camera zoomed in on Mariucci, who said, “I want to say something to Eagles fans,” while giving the audience a stern look.

“Be careful what you wish for,” Mariucci said. “He’s won the NFC East, the toughest division in football…”

See, this why former NFL players and coaches usually make for horrible TV analysts. Do they know the X’s and O’s better than the Average Joe? Sure, but they’re too close with people in the league to have an unbiased opinion.

If Mariucci weren’t great friends with Reid – they coached together in Green Bay – he would have mentioned that Reid is just 68-61-1 in the regular season since 2005 – the equivalent of going between 8-8 and 9-7 each year – and that he hasn’t won a playoff game since 2008. Reid hasn’t had much success at all since the passing of defensive coordinator Jim Johnson, whose stop units used to carry Philadelphia in what used to be a mediocre NFC. Without Johnson bailing out his underachieving offense, Reid hasn’t enjoyed much success.

Oh, and what’s with this toughest division in football business? The NFC East is comprised of two teams that are 5-6 and one that is 3-8. Oh, and in the past thee years, the four NFC East teams are a combined 77-79 in non-divisional games. Yeah, sounds really tough, Steve.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: It’s a miracle. This is a game in which Mark Sanchez is actually the top quarterback on the field. Of course, he won’t be the best signal-caller in the stadium because Tim Tebow will be standing on the sidelines, but don’t tell that to Rex Ryan, Fireman Ed and the idiot Jet players who call “Tebow” terrible all while Sanchez fumbles the ball as a result of running into his own lineman’s buttocks. Sounds like a Matt Millen wet dream.

Ryan Lindley is awful. He can’t get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald, has zero pocket awareness and doesn’t recognize what’s going on defensively. He is not prepared to play in the NFL, and I can’t imagine him having any sort of success against Ryan’s schemes. I don’t know what Ken Whisenhunt is thinking by sticking with him.

The Cardinals’ only hope of moving the chains is to establish Chris Wells. The Jets are just 23rd versus the rush (4.5 YPC), but Wells is neither talented nor healthy enough to take advantage of that.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Speaking of ineffective running games, Shonn Greene and his 3.8 yards-per-carry average probably won’t be much of a threat in this contest even though the Cardinals just surrendered 172 yards on the ground to the Rams. You can’t really compare the running ability of Greene and Steven Jackson.

Greene is smart though in that he believes Tebow would be the better option at quarterback. Sanchez is awful, but he tends to put together a solid outing once in a while. That could happen in this contest, given that the Cardinals’ struggling secondary has given up 8.5 yards per attempt in its previous four games. I’d say the problem is two-fold. The first issue is Adrian Wilson. The 33-year-old safety is regressing; in fact, he was demoted out of nickel formations two weeks ago.

The second issue is a lacking pass rush, which is great news for Sanchez, who has been sacked 27 times this year (10th most in the NFL). Arizona has just four sacks in its previous three games after recording 25 in the first eight weeks of the season. The good news though is that All-Pro defensive end Calais Campbell could be back in the lineup after missing two contests. His presence would be huge in resurrecting the pass rush.

RECAP: The Jets are not in a good spot because they’re coming off a crushing, season-ending loss to their arch rival. They’ll be sleepwalking through this game – which actually might be enough to win and cover. That’s how terrible Lindley is. I’m not betting on New York, but I don’t understand how anyone can back Arizona.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m switching my pick and putting two units on the Cardinals. The Jets are too crappy to be favored by six over anyone. The Six and Six Rule applies.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.

How are the Jets going to rebound from their season-ending loss to the Patriots?

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Ryan Lindley stinks, but Mark Sanchez isn’t exactly enticing for bettors.

Percentage of money on New York: 65% (36,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Opening Line: Jets -4.5.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Jets 16, Cardinals 13
Cardinals +6 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 37 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jets 7, Cardinals 6

Carolina Panthers (3-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-10)
Line: Panthers by 5. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Panthers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Panthers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Panthers -3.
Sunday, Dec. 2, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 13 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Panthers.

Random College Football Notes:

1. I’m all for player safety, but some of these rules are getting ridiculous. I forget which game this penalty occurred in, but it was one of the late contests three weeks ago, either Oregon-Cal or BYU-Idaho. A player was hit near the sidelines. It didn’t even look like anything close to illegal. I didn’t even think anything of it until I saw an official throw a flag and then announce: “Personal, foul, targeting the runner’s shoulder.”

Targeting the runner’s shoulder? What the hell is that!? You can’t hit players in the helmet, and now you can’t run into their shoulder? Where are you supposed to hit them exactly?

I’m sure if you ask any football ref this question, they’ll now tell you to target a players mid- lower-mid-section. But what if that leads to too many bruised vages? How long until targeting a player’s vag becomes a penalty?

2. Speaking of dumb things in college football, I never got the tradition of holding up four fingers as the game heads into the fourth quarter. What is the point of that? Would the players not know it was the fourth quarter otherwise? If I were a college football head coach, I’d order my players to hold up two fingers at this moment. Perhaps this would trick the other team into thinking the game was entering the second quarter.

3. I like to make fun of stupid commercials in my Jerks of the Week section from time to time. This Enterprise commercial really pisses me off.

Let me ask you something – does anyone reading this give a damn that Enterprise hires more college athletes than any other company? Like really, who gives a rat’s a**? Chances are you’re not a college athlete, so why should you care?

Who’s Enterprise’s target demographic for this commercial? The 200 or so college athletes who happen to be watching the game? Way to appeal to the majority of your viewing audience, Enterprise.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s nice that Cam Newton is getting confidence from beating these crappy teams. And I’m not saying that completely facetiously; he was so despondent after a loss that he actually got his inept general manager fired the following day. Newton being happy means that people get to keep their jobs. Maybe it’s just me, but I’d like to see Commander Adama maintain his position as head coach of the Panthers.

Newton threw for 300-plus yards in a victory for the first time in his career Monday night, so he should be able to carry that momentum into Kansas City. The Chiefs rank 30th against the pass (7.6 YPC), thanks to an underachieving secondary and an inane defensive scheme where shutdown cornerback Brandon Flowers is not asked to shadow the opposing No. 1 wideout for some mysterious reason.

The Chiefs are slightly better versus the run, ranking 22nd in that department, but it’s not like it matters. The Panthers can’t rush the ball anyway. Both running backs are pedestrian and their blocking is even worse. Plus, Jonathan Stewart is likely out with an ankle injury. This just means more of DeAngelo Williams, whose 3.2 yards-per-carry average doesn’t exactly strike fear into the hearts of the opposition.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I can’t say I understand what Romeo Crennel’s infatuation is with Brady Quinn. Maybe Quinn brings Crennel a box of Oreos every morning, but there is no logical reason that Quinn should ever be starting for any team in the NFL. Matt Cassel isn’t any good himself, but he’s much better than Quinn. Ricky Stanzi, meanwhile, should at least be given a chance. We know Quinn is a bum. We don’t need to see any more of him.

Even if Quinn had some semblance of talent, he wouldn’t stand a chance behind an offensive line ravaged by injuries. The Panthers have just three sacks in their previous three games, but they should be able to put pressure on Quinn in this contest.

Having said all of that, the Chiefs will be able to move the chains and sustain some drives. Bryce Brown just went nuts on this Carolina defense that is No. 30 versus the rush. Kansas City ran the ball extremely well versus Denver, so it should be able to continue doing that against a stop unit that is far inferior.

RECAP: I’d make a big play on Kansas City if I had any confidence in Quinn. The Chiefs are in a great spot. Home underdogs coming off a home loss cover at a high rate, and teams usually beat the spread when faced with a possible third-consecutive home defeat. Unfortunately, Quinn limits this to just one unit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: First of all, my thoughts and prayers go out to the Belcher family. What a terrible tragedy. Second, the Chiefs are unbettable. This is a different situation, but it reminds me of Sean Taylor’s death in 2007. The Redskins lost to the Bills as six-point favorites. Carolina will likely defeat a distracted Kansas City team, but I don’t know how much to bet on the Panthers. I’ll think about it and post something Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS II: I can’t bet on this game. I imagine there might be money to be made with the Panthers, but I don’t want to bet against the Chiefs today. Who knows, it might just galvanize them.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Why would anyone bet on Brady Quinn?

Percentage of money on Carolina: 80% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Chiefs are 17-29 ATS at home since 2007.

Opening Line: Panthers -3.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Panthers 17, Chiefs 10
Panthers -5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 27, Panthers 21

Indianapolis Colts (7-4) at Detroit Lions (4-7)
Line: Lions by 7. Total: 51.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Lions -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Lions -5.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Lions -4.
Sunday, Dec. 2, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 13 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Lions.

If you’ve been reading this Web site for a while, you know that I love to respond to mess with spammers. It’s fun writing material, and besides, if they’re busy with me, they’re not conning someone else – so I consider myself a good samaritan for doing this.

I currently have a long entry with this woman Mulyana running. It’s taking up too much space, so I’ve given it its own page. Click here for the Steve Urkel Spam Mail.

No updates this week, though I’m looking forward to receiving an angry e-mail from Barrister Colo once he opens my letter to find three Monopoly dollars. In the meantime, I continue to receive spam mail like this:

DETROIT OFFENSE: Remember when everyone was worried about Calvin Johnson not catching any touchdowns from Matthew Stafford? It’s amazing how things can change in a span of a few weeks. Now, Megatron can’t not find the end zone, if that makes any sense. He’s scored in three consecutive contests, and he has accumulated 32 catches for 619 yards in the past four weeks.

How are the banged-up Colts going to stop him? Or for that matter, how will Indianapolis’ defense contain any aspect of Detroit’s offense? Matthew Stafford is on fire; Ryan Broyles has emerged as a strong No. 2 receiver in the wake of Titus Young’s suspension; while Mikel Leshoure is running the ball very well. The Colts are just 28th versus the rush (4.77 YPC), so they will have their hands full with him as well.

The one chance Indianapolis has is being patient and waiting for Detroit to make dumb, mental mistakes. Because it will happen. The Lions always find some way to self destruct, whether it’s untimely penalties, drops or fumbles. Perhaps it’ll be in Stafford’s own best interest to not throw the ball to Brandon Pettigrew in the fourth quarter.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Lions have several defensive issues that the Colts should be able to exploit. One is the obvious. Detroit’s secondary has been an abomination for years, and that continues to be the case, as they just surrendered 315 passing yards to Matt Schaub. Stud safety Louis Delmas’ absence has been huge. He returned to the lineup on Thanksgiving, but was limited and played about half the snaps. Until he gets healthy, he’ll be a liability in the secondary along with Drayton Florence.

Andrew Luck won’t have any issues torching Detroit’s defensive backfield. He won’t have to worry about a pass rush either because the Lions have just seven sacks in their previous four games. In fact, Luck’s only threat is Ndamukong Suh kicking him in the balls.

So, that’s two issues for Detroit’s stop unit. The third is its inability to stop the run. The Lions are 25th versus ground attacks, thanks mostly to Kyle Vanden Bosch, who is a major liability on one side of the line of scrimmage. The Colts will run the ball his way and get big chunks of yardage out of doing so.

RECAP: This is a tough call. On one hand, home favorites are obvious great plays after suffering two defeats as hosts. On the other hand, the Lions are coming off an emotional loss against the Texans and could be looking ahead to battling the Packers next week. I’m picking Detroit, but I could be talked into siding with the Colts.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Lions shouldn’t be favored by more than six over a decent Indianapolis team. The Six and Six Rule applies.

The Psychology. Edge: Colts.

I have no idea how the Lions are going to bounce back from that season-ending loss to the Texans.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
A good lean on the visitor.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 63% (54,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Opening Line: Lions -5.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Dome.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Lions 31, Colts 27
Colts +7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 51 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Colts 35, Lions 33

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) at Buffalo Bills (4-7)
Line: Bills by 6. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bills -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Bills -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Bills -6.
Sunday, Dec. 2, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 13 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: Tom R. sent this one over, calling it the Best Girlfriend Ever. I disagree. This all sounds great, but it’s all going to end with a green card and 50 percent of your wealth going to her. Sort of like Bob Kraft’s situation right now, sans green card.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: You have to wonder where the Jaguars would be right now had they started Chad Henne all year and if Maurice Jones-Drew stayed healthy. Henne has been amazing since taking over for the incredibly inept Blaine Gabbert, throwing for 625 yards, six touchdowns and an interception that wasn’t his fault in two starts. Henne is still just 27, so maybe he’s finally starting to get it. If so, Jacksonville may have its young quarterback of the future after all.

It’ll be interesting to see if Henne can continue his torrid pace over these final five weeks. The Bills are 19th against the pass (7.3 YPA), so there won’t be any excuses for Henne to falter, save for the revitalized Mario Williams putting heavy pressure on him. Left tackle Eugene Monroe has played well this year, so that’ll be an interesting matchup.

If Henne gets time in the pocket, he’ll dissect Buffalo’s secondary with his arsenal of talented weapons. Unfortunately, the players in his backfield can’t be described that way; Jones-Drew and now Jalen Parmele are out, so Rashad Jennings will have to start again. The Bills have done a tremendous job of stopping the run the past two weeks, but Jennings isn’t good enough to take advantage of any sort of liability anyway.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Speaking of running the ball, it was refreshing to see Chan Gailey actually give way more touches to C.J. Spiller than Fred Jackson. Spiller is the far superior talent; I understand that he’s incapable of shouldering an entire workload, but he can go the distance on any play, so he has to be given around 20 touches in every single contest.

Spiller will have some success in this contest, as the Jaguars are a mediocre 16th versus the rush (4.3 YPC). Jacksonville did a good job against Chris Johnson this past week, but surrendered 127-plus rushing yards to its three opponents before that.

Having Spiller ripping off big gains will obviously be beneficial for Ryan Fitzpatrick, although it’s not like the Jaguars are capable of pressuring him consistently in third-and-long situations anyway. Jacksonville is tied for dead last alongside the Raiders with just 13 sacks. Jason Babin may help, but that’s unlikely. It’s certainly good news for Fitzpatrick, who will need all the time he can get to navigate a Jaguar secondary that looked solid last week in the wake of having Dwight Lowery and Rashean Mathis return to the lineup. Unfortunately for Jacksonville, cornerback Derek Cox injured his hamstring. He’s listed as questionable.

RECAP: I discussed the Six and Six Rule a few weeks ago. Basically, you fade any team favored by six or more that will finish with six or fewer victories on the year. I highly doubt the Bills will win seven or more games, so that would apply here. Plus, Jacksonville is playing very well right now, so you have to like the points.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still like the Jaguars for three units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 58% (28,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Jaguars are 15-30 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Bills are 22-15 ATS against losing teams since 2006.

Bills are 2-5 ATS as home favorites of 6 or more since 2002 (excluding Week 17 games).

Opening Line: Bills -6.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Bills 26, Jaguars 24
Jaguars +6 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bills 34, Jaguars 18

New England Patriots (8-3) at Miami Dolphins (5-6)
Line: Patriots by 7. Total: 51.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -6.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Patriots -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Patriots -7.
Sunday, Dec. 2, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 13 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

Remember when Tom Brady used to be the most clutch quarterback in the NFL? He had that epic drive against the Rams in the Super Bowl. He then engineered numerous other fourth-quarter comebacks, including one to defeat the Panthers two years later to claim his second Lombardi trophy. After he earned his third, there was a wide-spread belief that he would pass both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw and eventually earn five or more total rings.

Well, Brady’s been stuck on three. He’s no longer clutch; in fact, he often melts down in the fourth quarters of big matchups. He seems to really care about some games – especially those involving Tim Tebow – but then he’s so lackadaisical in others.

So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona.

For instance, the following exchange took place prior to the Patriots’ flight to Miami.

Gisele Bundchen: You prepare for go to country of Miami?

Tom Brady: Fo sho.

Gisele Bundchen: I very scare when you say you must play in Miami. I read lot of Mexican in Miami. Mexican svim across ocean and kill people in Miami.

Tom Brady: You ain’t gotta worry about me, shorty.

Gisele Bundchen: Yes, I knows. You no look tres chic but zis is necessary becooz you play in Miami and must avoid killings.

Tom Brady: I ain’t worried bout no killins. I’m representin’ the Fox to the Borough.

Gisele Bundchen: Yes, yes, Georgio do good job vis you, make you look like Eminems from move 8 Miles.

Tom Brady: Whatchu mean, look like Eminem, I am Eminem b***h!

Gisele Bundchen: Yes, yes, iz good. You vill be safe vis zis haircut and hoodie from Mexican.

Tom Brady: Fo shizzle, but if somebody disspeck me, I’ma pop a cap in dey a**.

Gisele Bundchen: Good, good, I dunno vhy bottle cap mean dangeroos but good you sound like vite rapper. You no look tres chic, but you can always look tres chic vhen come home.

Tom Brady: I dunno what this tres chic bulls*** is. Ey yo, Ryan, you ready to roll up out of this b***h?

Ryan Mallett: Who gonna give Ryan Mallett the back seat of dis airplane?

Tom Brady: If dey don’t give us that backseat and disspeck us, they’s gonna be realz sorry.

Ryan Mallett: Yeee and who gonna give Ryan Mallett a Sangria durin’ the flight?

Gisele Bundchen: I so happy you have gangster friend for dangeroos place like Miami. And iz even great zat vee don’t even have to pay Georgio to make Ryan Malloot be like Eminems.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: So much for Rob Gronkowski’s absence completely destroying the flow of the Patriots’ scoring attack. Tom Brady looked just fine on Thanksgiving, throwing for 323 yards against the Jets. Brady should have an even easier time at Miami, where the Dolphins have struggled mightily to defend the pass in recent weeks, even surrendering 8.3 yards per attempt to rookie Russell Wilson on Sunday.

Miami has some struggling players in its secondary, but the real issue is a pass rush that has completely disappeared. The Dolphins have just six sacks in their previous four contests, and they’ll likely struggle to put pressure on Tom Brady. Cameron Wake is the team’s only consistent pass-rusher, but right tackle Sebastian Vollmer, who should be voted into the Pro Bowl, figures to do a good job against him.

The Dolphins will at least be able to contain Stevan Ridley. They just limited Marshawn Lynch to 66 yards on 23 carries. Sure, their entire game plan focused on stopping Lynch, but they still have the personnel to put the clamps on Ridley even if they have to pay way more attention to the opposing aerial attack for a change.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Patriots, meanwhile, won’t nearly have as much success stopping Miami’s running game. They’ve surrendered at least 106 rushing yards to their previous five opponents, including the Jets, who normally don’t move the chains on the ground that effectively.

Reggie Bush, who showed up for the first time in quite a while last week, figures to have a strong outing. This will give Ryan Tannehill manageable down-and-distance situations, which is key against Bill Belichick and his revamped secondary featuring Aqib Talib.

New England is just OK in terms of rushing the passer – it has 23 sacks on the year – but there is a big mismatch that left end Rob Ninkovich has to exploit. Ninkovich, who has six sacks on the year, will be going up against one of the worst right tackles in football, Jonathan Martin. Pressuring Tannehill will be key, as the rookie quarterback has six interceptions in his previous three starts. The Patriots have recorded 12 takeaways in their past three games, so that seems like a recipe for disaster for Tannehill.

RECAP: The Patriots own this rivalry. They’re on fire. Belichick is tremendous as a road favorite following a road victory. The only thing not going in New England’s favor is the betting action, but I’m still making this a two-unit play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No change here.

The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.
The Patriots have the Texans and 49ers after this, but I don’t think they’ll look past a divisional opponent.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

No one wants to bet on Miami.

Percentage of money on New England: 87% (68,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Patriots are 40-23 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 143-47 as a starter (111-75 ATS).

Tom Brady is 5-5 ATS at Miami.

Bill Belichick is 6-0 ATS as a road favorite following a road win since 2003.

Opening Line: Patriots -9.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Patriots 38, Dolphins 24
Patriots -7 (2 Units) — Push; $0
Over 51 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 23, Dolphins 16

Houston Texans (10-1) at Tennessee Titans (4-7)
Line: Texans by 6.5. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -5.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Texans -6.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Texans -7.
Sunday, Dec. 2, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 13 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Texans.

WalterFootball.com Contest Updates:

Survivor: Get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2012 NFL Survivor Pool. There are 78 people remaining.

Picking Contest: We’re also running an NFL Picking Contest. It’s free entry, and the winner gets $75 each month.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: These teams met in Week 4. The Texans prevailed, 38-14, as Matt Schaub was a near-perfect 20-of-28 for 202 yards and two touchdowns. The kicker is that Schaub didn’t even have a healthy Andre Johnson at his disposal. Johnson recently told the media that he’s finally 100 percent, and the stats definitely back that up. He’s caught a ridiculous 23 passes for 461 yards and a touchdown in his previous two contests.

The Titans simply don’t have the manpower in the secondary to keep up with Johnson – their safeties are atrocious tacklers – so they’ll need their defensive front to step up and harass Schaub in the pocket. They didn’t sack Schaub in a single time in that Week 4 affair, but the good news is that the pass rush has come alive lately; Tennessee sacked Chad Henne a whopping seven times last week.

Of course, Houston can nullify Tennessee’s ability to get to the quarterback by establishing Arian Foster as a consistent threat. The Titans have surrendered 4.6 YPC to their previous four opponents.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans won’t be able to stop the Texans, so they’ll have to engage in a shootout with them. Houston has allowed Jacksonville and Detroit to nearly match it point for point, but it’s unlikely that Tennessee will be able to duplicate this because the team just doesn’t have the firepower to do so.

Jake Locker has not looked good in his two games back from injury. He’s completed just 52.5 percent of his passes against the Dolphins and Jaguars while maintaining a pedestrian YPA of 6.3. Blegh. Locker can scramble around and pick up a few first downs during the course of a game, but I’m not confident that he can continuously lead scoring drives against a defense that will have its No. 1 cornerback returning.

The Titans would much rather grind it out with Chris Johnson on the ground. That’s going to be rather difficult because the Texans rank ninth versus the rush (3.98 YPC). CJ2K is still tentative – he took an 11-yard loss last week because he couldn’t find a hole to run through – so that will be a major problem against one of the NFL’s elite run defense.

RECAP: Don’t worry, I’m not betting the Titans again. In fact, if I had to choose, I’d take the Texans. As noted below, Mike Munchak is 2-7 against the spread when facing a team with a winning record. Unfortunately, Houston just isn’t in a good spot.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Texans will be missing Johnathan Joseph, but that’s not enough to put me on the Titans.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

The Texans have the Patriots, Colts, Vikings and Colts after the Titans, so this is their easiest game remaining. They may take Tennessee lightly.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

What a shady point spread.

Percentage of money on Houston: 89% (63,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: No trends.

Mike Munchak is 2-7 ATS playing a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Texans -4.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Texans 35, Titans 17
Texans -6.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 24, Titans 10

Week 13 NFL Picks – Late Games
Buccaneers at Broncos, Steelers at Ravens, Browns at Raiders, Bengals at Chargers, Eagles at Cowboys, Giants at Redskins

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 13 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)