NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2012

NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 6-9-1 (-$1,440)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2012): 3-13 (-$2,250)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2012): 8-7-1 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2012): 7-9 (+$70)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2012): 7-8 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2012): 7-7 (-$340)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2012): 9-5 (+$1,670)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2012): 7-5-1 (+$420)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2012): 6-8 (-$450)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2012): 8-6 (+$240)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2012): 8-6 (+$730)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2012): 6-7-1 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2012): 5-9-2 (-$1,080)

NFL Picks (2012): 87-99-6 (-$1,250)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 3, 6:05 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 13 NFL Picks – Early Games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) at Denver Broncos (8-3)
Line: Broncos by 7.5. Total: 49.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Broncos -6.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Broncos -7.
Sunday, Dec. 2, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 13 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 5, Episode 13 has been posted – Jerry Jones finally fires himself!

DENVER OFFENSE: This is the type of matchup that Peyton Manning dreams about. The Buccaneers have the worst secondary in the NFL. Yes, even worse than New Orleans, statistically. Tampa Bay has surrendered 8.53 yards per attempt to its previous four opponents, three of whom happen to be Carson Palmer, a fading Philip Rivers and Cam Newton. And this was before starting cornerback Eric Wright was suspended.

I don’t see how the Buccaneers can possibly stop Peyton Manning and all of his talented receivers. Their only chance is to pressure Manning, who has actually been sacked five times in the past two games. However, Tampa Bay is among the league’s worst teams in terms of getting to the quarterback; its 18 sacks are better than only the Jets, Jaguars and Raiders.

The one thing Tampa Bay does well defensively is shut down the run, thanks mostly to defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and rookie linebacker Lavonte David. The Buccaneers actually rank first in the NFL in terms of stopping the rush, surrendering 3.5 yards per carry to the opposition. Denver is down starting running back Willis McGahee, but it’s not like he would have enjoyed much more success than fill-in Knowshon Moreno.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Speaking of being No. 1 versus the run, the Broncos had that distinction last week, but lost that ranking after surrendering 149 rushing yards to the Chiefs. It was inexplicable to see Kansas City have so much success on the ground. Perhaps it was an aberration. At least that’s what Bronco fans better hope because it’s also possible that teams have finally realized how much of a liability Keith Brooking is in the middle of that defense.

I could see Doug Martin having a huge performance. He already nearly set the single-game rushing record on the road against another AFC West foe. He won’t approach 296 yards in this contest because unlike the Raiders, the Broncos actually try. However, the interior of Brooking, Justin Bannan and Kevin Vickerson isn’t that formidable.

Josh Freeman will need Martin to perform well because he has quite the challenge this week. Champ Bailey will smother Vincent Jackson, which will force Freeman to look elsewhere. Denver’s young corners, Chris Harris and Tony Carter, have also played well this year, so they should do a decent job on Freeman’s other wideouts. Meanwhile, Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil will be bringing tons of pressure. It’s a good thing that the Buccaneers are tied for the fourth-fewest sacks surrendered in the NFL.

RECAP: I like the Buccaneers for a unit. It’s scary to go against Manning, but Freeman is capable of posting a backdoor cover on this high number. Besides, Denver’s in the unenviable situation of being a favorite prior to playing on Thursday night. Teams have been dreadful in this situation this year.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No change here. Still a slight lean on the underdog.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Denver: 58% (47,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

New Thursday Schedule: Favorites are 3-11 ATS prior to Thursday games this year.

Opening Line: Broncos -6.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Broncos 30, Buccaneers 27
Buccaneers +7.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; $0
Over 49.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 31, Buccaneers 23

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) at Baltimore Ravens (9-2)
Line: Ravens by 7. Total: 36.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Roethlisberger).
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Ravens -9 (Batch) or Ravens -3 (Roethlisberger).
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Ravens -10 (Batch) or Ravens -3 (Roethlisberger).
Sunday, Dec. 2, 4:15 ET
Discuss Week 13 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: TBA.

One final rant about Ray Rice’s 4th-and-29 non-conversion: I was happy to hear Philip Rivers complain about it. SportsCenter aired a portion of his press conference where he said, “I don’t think anyone thinks he got it. I don’t think anyone in the stadium thinks he got it. I don’t think Ray Rice thinks he got it. I don’t think anyone in America thinks he got it.”

If you think Rice converted it, you’re either clueless or ignorant. Just take a look at this picture:

His knees are slightly BEHIND the 35. The ball is at his chest. Official Gene Steratore re-spotted the ball at the 33.5. Thus, Steratore thinks that the distance between Rice’s knees and chest are slightly longer than 4.5 feet.

Rice is some freaky human being if this is the case! Despite being 5-foot-8, all but a foot of that is between Rice’s knees and chest? Wow. Amazing.

I understand why Steratore blatantly got the call wrong. He didn’t want to be the villain and negate an incredible-looking play. But he clearly was incorrect and now looks like a buffoon.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Charlie Batch is not as bad as everyone thinks he is. OK, he’s bad. I’m not saying otherwise. But for people to opine that he was the worst quarterback playing football this past Sunday is just incorrect. Every single one of his running backs fumbled, which gave the Browns a lead. Batch then had to start forcing stuff downfield. He actually fired a 33-yard completion to Heath Miller, but that was called back because of a hold – just one of a billion mistakes Pittsburgh made this past Sunday.

Batch, in all likelihood, will draw another start. Hopefully for the sanity of Pittsburgh fans, he doesn’t have deal with five fumbles again. If he doesn’t, he should be able to manage the game effectively while his running backs pound away against a Baltimore stop unit that has endured issues against the rush throughout the season.

The Steelers will have to settle for field goals, however. The Ravens have the NFL’s No. 1 red-zone defense. They haven’t permitted a score deep in their own territory in more than three weeks. That’s remarkable.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens had issues scoring the last time they played the Steelers. In fact, if it wasn’t for Jacoby Jones’ punt return for a touchdown, they would have lost to a hobbled Byron Leftwich.

Things figure to be different this time for one simple fact – the Ravens are at home. They’re so much better as hosts. It’s pretty incredible; they average 36.8 points per game in Baltimore and just 16.5 points on the road. For those of you who don’t have a calculator by your side, that’s a difference of 20.3 points. Also, the Ravens are No. 26 in red-zone offense as a visitor, but at home? They’re tied for No. 1 with the Saints.

Ray Rice gained just 40 yards on 20 carries in Pittsburgh two weeks ago. I don’t think his numbers will be affected that much by the change of venue, but Joe Flacco will be much sharper. Just don’t expect him to go nuts or anything. After all, the Steelers are still ranked No. 1 versus aerial attacks, yielding opponents to an exceptional 5.89 yards per attempt.

RECAP: This is probably going to be a four-unit play… on the Steelers. Yeah, I’m a glutton for punishment, what can I say? But these Baltimore-Pittsburgh games are almost always close, no matter who the quarterbacks are. Also, the Steelers, who are seeking revenge, are in the favorable position of being a road underdog following a road game, which covers at a 67-percent rate.

LINE POSTED: The Ravens are eight-point favorites. I still love the Steelers. These games are always close.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No change, even with Ben Roethlisberger ruled out.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.
Slight lean on the host.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 63% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Home Team has won 16 of the last 22 meetings (Flacco 2-6 vs. Roethlisberger).

Mike Tomlin is 17-11 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Ravens -8.

Opening Total: 35.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Ravens 17, Steelers 12
Steelers +7 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 36.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 23, Ravens 20

Cleveland Browns (3-8) at Oakland Raiders (3-8)
Line: Browns by 2.5. Total: 39.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.

Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Raiders -2.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Browns -2.
Sunday, Dec. 2, 4:15 ET
Discuss Week 13 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Browns.

Jerks of the Week for Nov. 26, 2012 is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are Jerks of the Neighborhood.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I can’t believe there’s no line posted because of Brandon Weeden. It’s Brandon freaking Weeden. The Browns are winning in spite of him, and Colt McCoy is just as good, if not better than him.

Vegas’ reluctance to list a spread almost makes me not want to try compiling this write-up – but then I’d be just as bad as the Raiders. They’ve quit. They became just the 13th team to lose by 21 points or more in three consecutive games; it’s a rare occurrence because NFL squads that try hard almost never get blown out three times in a row. I tried to warn Dennis Allen about Tommy Kelly. Cutting Kelly after he laughed off multiple penalties in the opener would have sent a positive message to the squad; instead, Kelly, a locker-room cancer, has poisoned the entire team.

The Raiders have no interest in stopping the run, as they’ve given up a ridiculous 6.3 YPC to their previous four opponents. Trent Richardson may just break the single-game rushing record.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: It’s almost unheard of to see a statistic like this, but Cleveland surrendered nearly half the yardage per carry that Oakland did in November. While the Raiders were at 6.3 YPC, the Browns permitted just 3.3. How does that even happen?

There’s some speculation that Darren McFadden might be back in the lineup, which could actually be detrimental to Oakland’s chances because Marcel Reece won’t get as many touches. Thanks perhaps to numerous leg injuries over his football career, McFadden has shown absolutely no burst this season. The Browns will have an easy time limiting him.

Cleveland will also pressure Carson Palmer quite effortlessly. The team has done a better job of getting to the quarterback lately, while Palmer has been sacked 10 times the past three weeks. Palmer, who will be under heavy duress, will have to locate his receivers amid a secondary that has played terrifically ever since Joe Haden returned from injury.

RECAP: The Browns aren’t in a good spot. They’re coming off an emotional victory and are being asked to travel across the country. I’d take the opponent under normal circumstances, but there isn’t anything normal about this. The Raiders are epically dreadful. They’ve stopped trying because their 15-year-old head coach showed them that there won’t be any repercussions for dogging it on the field.

LINE POSTED: The Browns are favored by three, which sounds about right because the Raiders don’t give a damn. This is still a zero-unit play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There were reports citing bad weather, but weather.com doesn’t show anything terrible. I may place a unit on the under depending on what the conditions are.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

The Browns are coming off an emotional victory against the rival Steelers, but the Raiders may not try again.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 55% (3,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Browns are 4-9 ATS as favorites since 2008.

Raiders are 5-26 ATS at home vs. teams with losing records.

Opening Line: Browns -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Browns 20, Raiders 16
Browns -2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 39 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Browns 20, Raiders 17

Cincinnati Bengals (6-5) at San Diego Chargers (4-7)
Line: Bengals by 1. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chargers -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Chargers -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Chargers -2.5.

Sunday, Dec. 2, 4:15 ET
Discuss Week 13 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Bengals.

It’s time for some Migelini Madness! NFL.com sucks. They no longer have their regular GameCenter chat format; they installed a Facebook chat app instead, which really blows. This means that we won’t be hearing from our favorite idiots anymore. No more pervy Aaron3619. No more stupid Migelini. No more childish Taton. No more insane Farim.

Well, I’m taking a stand against this via two methods. First, I have hundreds of unused GameCenter comments saved up, so I have enough to survive for a few more years. Second, I plan on re-creating our favorite GameCenter characters and having them troll the Facebook posters in the app. I made a Migelini account and my girlfriend, Awesome Girl Who Loves Football, who was once harassed by Aaron3619, is the new Aaron. Feel free to re-create other ones!

Here’s a simple post in the Cardinals-Rams game:

How can someone be on Downs Syndrome? He makes it seem like a drug. I doubt all of the kids are smoking up Downs Syndrome.

At any rate, who’s the better running back between Marshawn Lynch and Reggie Bush? We had the debate here:

Nathaniel is just mean. And wrong. It’s America, so everyone gets an equal voice.

Oh, and my prediction for the game:

Michael Robertson accuses me of being crazy, yet he works at “govt?” Yeah, OK. If he really does, perhaps he’ll talk some people into fixing our educational system.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The prevailing question about the Chargers’ offense is, what happened to Philip Rivers? The former Pro Bowl quarterback has regressed over the past couple of years – he’s never been the same since taking a fierce hit against the Patriots in Week 2 of the 2011 season. However, it’s not completely clear if Rivers’ skills have completely diminished because there’s a glaring lack of talent around him. Darren Sproles and Vincent Jackson are gone. Antonio Gates can’t get open anymore. And worst of all, the offensive line is an abomination.

I don’t know how the Chargers are going to block Geno Atkins, Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap. The tackles are so bad. Jeromey Clary is a pedestrian lineman, while undrafted rookie Michael Harris is way worse. Johnson won’t have any issues running around him and sacking Rivers. But even when Rivers has time in the pocket, he’ll find it difficult to move the chains, as Cincinnati’s secondary, which is healthy for a change, has been dominant lately, holding their previous four opponents to a 5.8 YPA.

The Bengals can still be beaten on the ground because their linebackers are terrible. They rank 24th versus the rush (4.6 YPC). However, Ryan Mathews just doesn’t have the stuff to take advantage of a liability like this. He’s been a huge disappointment.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Speaking of disappointing running backs, BenJarvus Green-Ellis has not produced nearly as well as the Bengals envisioned when they signed him this offseason. The Law Firm has been better the past couple of weeks, but only because he was going up against the pathetic Chiefs and lethargic Raiders. The Chargers aren’t great against the run, but at least they are somewhat competent in that department.

Of course, San Diego’s inability to stop the rush could be compromised by the injuries the team incurred against the Ravens. Donald Butler, the Chargers’ top linebacker, is listed as doubtful. Safety Atari Bigby, who was decent in run support, is gone for the year. Eric Weddle, the team’s top defensive player, suffered a concussion on the ridiculous block-in-the-back that wasn’t called on Ray Rice’s 4th-and-29, but he’s expected to suit up.

Weddle’s absence would be a huge blow to a secondary that already has a big liability in cornerback Antoine Cason. If he plays, however, the Chargers would at least have a chance of containing Andy Dalton, though A.J. Green obviously won’t be stopped.
RECAP: As I said earlier, I’m a glutton for punishment. I love San Diego this week. Before you close this tab in your Web browser, hear me out:

1. Everyone is overreacting to that 4th-and-29 play. Forget for a second that Ray Rice didn’t reach the first down; the Chargers are used to blowing games like this. Yes, their season is over, but they know this feeling rather well. They always thrive in December when there’s virtually no chance of making the playoffs. That’s just what they do. Rivers has an awesome record in December for a reason.

1a. Speaking of overreaction, this spread was Chargers -3 a week ago. Had the ball been correctly spotted at the 34.5, allowing San Diego to prevail, this spread would still be -3. Thus, we’re getting an unbelievable 4.5 points in value because of one terrible call.

2. The fact that San Diego lost in overtime is actually helpful. Since 1994, teams (except for road underdogs) coming off a home overtime loss have covered at an amazing rate.

3. This is another situation I like: home underdogs coming off a home underdog loss cover at a 67-percent clip. It’s obvious why that works.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Chargers for some reason.

The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.
I have no idea how the Chargers are going to get up for this game.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

People are tired of San Diego.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 78% (41,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Bengals are 10-26 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Philip Rivers is 23-12 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (8-3 ATS as an underdog).

Opening Line: Chargers -1.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Chargers 27, Bengals 24
Chargers +1 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Over 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bengals 20, Chargers 13

Philadelphia Eagles (3-8) at Dallas Cowboys (5-6)
Line: Cowboys by 10. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -8.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Cowboys -10.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Cowboys -9.
Sunday, Dec. 2, 8:20 ET
Discuss Week 13 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

I can’t wait until we have a whole army of former GameCenter personalities harassing people on Facebook. That’s what NFL.com gets for getting rid of the GameCenter chat. My girlfriend is the new Aaron.

Here are some posts from the original Migelini.

His epic posts bring mine to shame. It just sucks that no one saw them because each page orders its posts based on the amount of “likes.” So, if you plan on trolling – or even just reading – please “like” everything you see.

Here are some other awesome trollers:

We completely ruined the Seahawks-Dolphins page, by the way. Almost every other post was made by a troller. I love it.

Oh, and if you’re wondering, I only own the Mario Migelini account. All of these other trollers are different people.

DALLAS OFFENSE: I don’t see the Eagles stopping the Cowboys. I just don’t know how they’ll do it. Their defensive line can’t put any pressure on the quarterback, their back seven can’t tackle and their safeties blow multiple assignments per week. It’s a nightmare.

Tony Romo was a near-perfect 19-of-26 for 209 yards and two touchdowns when he battled Philadelphia back in Week 10. He might be even better this time, as some of the players quit as soon as Nick Foles stepped on to the field. Cam Newton threw for 300-plus yards in a victory for the first time in his career on Monday night, for crying out loud.

The Cowboys will be able to run the ball as well. This is seldom the case, but they gashed the pathetic Eagles for 102 rushing yards on just 24 carries – and this was with Felix Jones handling most of the workload. There’s a chance that DeMarco Murray will be back, which will make matters worse for Philadelphia.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: It’s looking like Foles will start again. He looked competent at times Monday night, but really lucked out when the Panthers dropped three easy interceptions, one of which looked like it could have gone back for six. He may not be so lucky against the Cowboys. He definitely wasn’t the last time he played them.

Of course, even if Foles takes care of the football, there’s no guarantee that he’ll have much success at Dallas. Sure, there are some glaring issues in that secondary, but DeSean Jackson is out, so the Cowboys won’t have to worry about any sort of vertical threat. Also, the Philadelphia offensive line won’t be able to keep DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer out of the backfield.

Bryce Brown is Philadelphia’s only hope. He looked great against the Panthers. He could approach triple digits again versus Dallas. The Cowboys are better against the run than the Panthers are, but they have some injuries and can be exposed. Having said that, I’m sure they’ll be trying their hardest to poke the ball out of Brown’s arms because the rookie back lost two fumbles Monday night.

RECAP: How can anyone bet this game? The Eagles are trash, while the Cowboys are too incompetent to be laying this many points. I’m going to take the double-digit underdog and hope for the best. SURVIVOR PICK: I’m fortunate enough to have the Cowboys still available. The top options this week are: Green Bay, Dallas, Denver, Baltimore, New England, Houston, San Francisco and Detroit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I refuse to bet either team.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No pyschological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 55% (40,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Eagles have won 3 of the last 5 meetings.

Andy Reid is 9-3 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 or more since 2000.

Cowboys are 7-15 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

Tony Romo is 7-17 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (1-6 ATS as an underdog).

Tony Romo is 8-16 ATS as a favorite of -7 or more excluding Thanksgiving (4-1 on Thanksgiving).

Opening Line: Cowboys -9.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Cowboys 27, Eagles 23
Eagles +10 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Survivor Pick (11-1)
Cowboys 38, Eagles 33

New York Giants (7-4) at Washington Redskins (5-6)
Line: Giants by 3. Total: 50.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Giants -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Giants -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Giants -2.
Monday, Dec. 3, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 13 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Giants.

This week on Monday Night Football, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here’s what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Washington, the nation’s capital! Tonight, my arch-enemy Giants take on my new enemy Redskins. Guys, I hate both of these teams with a passion. I just learned a couple of weeks ago that we can have ties. I hope both of these teams tie and lose tonight. Emmitt, I know you’re with me on this.

Emmitt: Ryan, I do not understand how a team can lossed and founded, I mean tied at the same times. I do not know all of the rule in the National Conference of Leagues, but I do know a score decide the game, and the score usually say if one team winned, lossed or founded.

Reilly: Emmitt, I think there’s a way. We kidnap Roger Goodell, tie him up in one of our basements and make him change the rule so both the Giants and Redskins can lose and tie at the same time because they’re both sworn enemies of the Eagles.

Tollefson: I think you’re on to something there, Kevin, except instead of kidnapping Roger Goodell, we should kidnap one of the cheerleaders, or perhaps all of the cheerleaders, and force them to pleasure us. They’ll be happy to do so because that’s one of the only things women are good for. But don’t worry – I’ll let them cook and clean too. I am reasonable, after all.

Reilly: Tolly, I usually agree with you, but you’re being short-sighted here. How can kidnapping cheerleaders help the Eagles’ cause? It does nothing. No, we should kidnap and gag Goodell. Does anything else think this is a good idea?

Emmitt: I am not a liar but I think this is against the lawed.

Reilly: Really? Do you think I’d be in big trouble once they find out… I mean if I did do it?

Millen: Let me tell you something, Kevin. I once kidnapped a 100-percent USDA Man and held him captive in my basement for eight days. Eventually, the authorities found out, and I had to spend several years in prison. Fortunately, one of the guards was a friend I often have kielbasa parties with, so he helped me escape. If you do this, I hope you’re friends with some of the guards.

Reilly: Ah, crap. I don’t want to go to prison and have my rear end violated. I mean, if I did this, of course.

Millen: Well, that’s the only upside of prison, Kevin, but the downside is that they do not have kielbasas, and you’ll be hard pressed to find any young stallions behind bars.

Reilly: Oh God, what have I done? I just wanted Goodell to change the rules!

Griese: Looks like you’re going to prison! Ha! Weh? Where am I?

Reilly: Umm… guys, I’ll be right back, I have to figure out how to deal with this problem! We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: All Eli Manning needed was rest, apparently. Manning returned from his bye looking sharper than ever. He torched the Packers mercilessly, which doesn’t bode well for the Redskins because Green Bay’s defense, despite being banged up, is infinitely superior to Washington’s.

The Redskins have glaring issues in their secondary, thanks in part to Brandon Meriweather being absent for most of the season. Eli Manning will easily pick them apart just as he did in Week 7, when he went 26-of-40 for 337 yards and a long, game-winning touchdown to Victor Cruz. Nothing has really changed since then; Meriweather briefly returned to the lineup, but was knocked out for the year in the very same game.

New York’s blowout victory over the Packers was bittersweet because several players suffered injuries, including Andre Brown, who was placed on injured reserve. Brown was a powerful runner who was effective in short yardage, so we’ll see if his presence is missed at the goal line. His absence definitely won’t be felt in between the 20s though, especially in this contest, as Ahmad Bradshaw should be able to pick up big chunks of yardage against a Washington ground defense ranked 15th (4.2 YPC).

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Manning’s rebound performance last week was huge. The same can be said for Osi Umenyiora’s. The former Pro Bowler has been invisible for most of the season, but he was dominant against the Packers. If he can maintain that high level of play, New York’s defense will be very forceful because Jason Pierre-Paul is a nightmare on the other side. Washington’s offensive line isn’t that good – Robert Griffin was sacked four times on Thanksgiving – so the Giants should be able to pin him in the backfield on several occasions.

Having said that, it’s difficult to imagine Griffin not keeping up with Manning on the scoreboard. Pierre Garcon is back, so Griffin just has way too many favorable matchups going up against a defensive back seven that features an inept Corey Webster, an even worse Chase Blackburn and a doubtful Kenny Phillips.

Griffin will have to do most of the damage on his own because the Giants have been solid versus the run lately, limiting their previous four opponents to 3.7 YPC. Containing Alfred Morris is the easy part though; stopping Griffin from moving the chains on the ground is a completely different story. Griffin rushed for 89 yards on nine scrambles at New York back in Week 7.

RECAP: As fun as it is to back Griffin, I’m going to take the Giants because they’re the better team overall. They’re prepared to make their annual stretch run, and I’m sure they don’t like how the media is paying so much attention to how dynamic Griffin is.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still leaning toward the Giants. Everyone is talking about how great Griffin is, so the Giants might be pissed. I’m not going to be betting this game though.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
Slight lean on the Giants.

Percentage of money on New York: 64% (85,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Giants have won 10 of the last 13 meetings.

Opening Line: Giants -2.5.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Giants 31, Redskins 24
Giants -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 50 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Redskins 17, Giants 16

Week 13 NFL Picks – Early Games
Saints at Falcons, Jaguars at Bills, Colts at Lions, Panthers at Chiefs, Patriots at Dolphins, Cardinals at Jets, 49ers at Rams, Seahawks at Bears, Texans at Titans, Vikings at Packers

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)