NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2012

NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 6-9-1 (-$1,440)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2012): 3-13 (-$2,250)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2012): 8-7-1 (+$430)

NFL Picks (2012): 17-29-2 (-$3,260)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 24, 5:25 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 3 NFL Picks – Early Games

Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0)
Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Eagles -5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Eagles -6.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Eagles -5.
Sunday, Sept. 23, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Contest Updates:

Survivor: Get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2012 NFL Survivor Pool. There were more than 900 lost entries because of the Patriots. Why would anyone pick against Kevin Kolb in a cross-country road game?

Fantasy: We’ll be running FanDuel contests through the end of October. It’s free entry and there are weekly cash prizes. Go to the Fantasy Football Contest page for more details (link will be available later during the week).

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I’ve gotten a lot of flak for slotting the Eagles No. 14 in my NFL Power Rankings. Even a supposed friend of mine was all over me for that, calling me a jacka** on my Facebook wall. Well, I’m sorry, but a team that turns it over nine times in two games, and is a pair of plays away from being 0-2 does not deserve to be in the top 10.

The Eagles also don’t deserve to be four-point favorites at Arizona. The Cardinals have a top-five NFL defense, owning a ferocious defensive line that completely discombobulated New England’s offense. If Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell were able to do that to Tom Brady, imagine the havoc they’ll cause for the Eagles, who will be without two starting linemen, left tackle King Dunlap and center Jason Kelce.

QBDK will have pressure in his face the entire afternoon, as defensive coordinator Ray Horton will confuse him with creative blitz schemes. This means QBDK will attempt numerous dumb throws, just as he did in Cleveland. Running the ball with LeSean McCoy will help, but not much because Arizona is stout versus ground attacks. Also, it’s very possible that Andy Reid will forget to call running plays for McCoy.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: What I just wrote about the Eagles’ scoring attack can also be applied to the Cardinals’. Arizona has a poor offensive front that will be exposed by Philadelphia’s tremendous pass rush, while the one downfield weapon (DeSean Jackson/Larry Fitzgerald) will be blanketed by an elite cornerback (Nnamdi Asomugha/Patrick Peterson).

The one caveat is that Andy Reid used to coach Kolb. Quarterbacks who battle their former coach for the first time usually fare poorly because the coach knows the signal-caller’s strengths and weaknesses better than anyone. There are some exceptions to this rule, like Brett Favre going up against Mike McCarthy, but it’s usually a loser.

With that being said, the Cardinals, like the Eagles, could be prone to plenty of turnovers in this contest.

RECAP: I’m taking Arizona because this spread is ridiculous. The Eagles are not seven points better (three to a neutral field) than the Cardinals. There’s also a chance Philadelphia will be looking past Arizona with more important matchups on the horizon.

Having said that, I’m not betting on the Cardinals because of the Kolb-Reid dynamic, as well as the fact that teams coming off upsets as big underdogs struggle to cover the spread the following week (thanks to e-mailer Darren L. for pointing that out).

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve been thinking about this, and I think that Arizona +3 is such a square play. There is so much line value with Philadelphia, but it seems like the most important thing is that Andy Reid is so familiar with Kevin Kolb. That’s huge. I’m changing my selection to Eagles -3, but it’s still going to be for zero units.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.

A Breather Alert for the Eagles, who have the Giants and Steelers after this. The Cardinals are playing for respect.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 52% (39,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Eagles are 75-54 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Cardinals are 16-6 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 under Ken Whisenhunt.

Opening Line: Eagles -4.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Dome.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Eagles 20, Cardinals 16
Eagles -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cardinals 27, Eagles 6

Atlanta Falcons (2-0) at San Diego Chargers (2-0)
Line: Chargers by 3. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chargers -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Chargers -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Chargers -2.
Sunday, Sept. 23, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

If you didn’t catch it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 5, Episode 3 has been posted – One of the replacement officials is a key suspect in Bountygate II.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: I’ve called the Chargers overrated in the early going, but I was completely wrong. They’ve figured their defense out. They no longer suck against the pass; in fact, they excel at it, ranking seventh against it in terms of YPA (6.2).

Now, I know that San Diego has battled two very shaky quarterbacks. There’s no disputing that. But it’s very evident that their pass rush has improved. Rookies Melvin Ingram and Kendall Reyes have both been outstanding, while last year’s first-rounder, Corey Liuget, has vastly improved upon his 2011 campaign. The Falcons have enough holes up front for the Chargers to exploit this.

Just as he did on Monday night, Matt Ryan will counter a fierce pass rush by getting rid of the ball quickly to his talented targets. He had immense success against the Broncos despite the fact that Julio Jones dropped numerous catchable balls. I’ll be shocked if that happens again.

By the way, don’t expect much out of the running game. Michael Turner is completely finished, and he stands no chance against the Chargers’ No. 1 ground defense (2.2 YPC). Turner may not even see as many carries this week in the wake of his DUI arrest.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Someone who figures to see carries will be Ryan Mathews, who’s expected to return from his collar bone injury. Mathews will be a huge upgrade over Curtis Brinkley and Ronnie Brown, and he should be able to run well versus Atlanta’s No. 21 run defense (4.6 YPC). Just look at what Willis McGahee was able to do Monday night.

Mathews will finally open things up for Rivers, who should have his favorite target, Antonio Gates back from a rib injury. Rivers figures to have a decent performance, given that Atlanta is down two cornerbacks (Brent Grimes, Chris Owens).

The key for Atlanta will be having John Abraham put consistent pressure on Rivers. Left tackle Michael Harris, an undrafted free agent rookie, handled himself well versus Oakland in the opener, but completely bombed this past Sunday versus Tennessee. Abraham has been very mediocre thus far in 2012, so he’ll have to come alive against Harris. Jared Gaither, who’s the normal left tackle, is questionable, by the way. Having him in the lineup would be huge, but it doesn’t appear as though that’ll happen.

RECAP: Everyone is so shocked by this spread. “How are the Chargers favored by three?” is the consensus remark when looking at the line. But I agree with the oddsmakers. The Chargers are very underrated because they’ve made great improvements to their defense.

There’s one other thing to consider – Atlanta just played a Monday night game on the East Coast and has to travel to the West Coast on just five days of rest. Teams in this situation have fared poorly over the years; in fact, the last team to cover the spread in this dynamic was the New York Giants – in 1998!

FINAL THOUGHTS: No change. I still like the Chargers.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

The public is all over this underdog.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 75% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Mike Smith is 3-1 ATS on the West Coast.

Chargers are 16-23 ATS in Weeks 1-8 since 2007.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick: Chargers 31, Falcons 24
Chargers -3 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcons 27, Chargers 3

Houston Texans (2-0) at Denver Broncos (1-1)
Line: Texans by 1.5. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -2.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Broncos -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Broncos -1.5.

Sunday, Sept. 23, 4:15 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

Another friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Sept. 17, 2012 is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are Mosquitos, Vanilla Extract and Klondike Man.

If you’ve been following my 2012 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you’re wondering which players to start, I’ve got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page (will be posted tonight) as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings.

DENVER OFFENSE: I love one-game overreactions by the media. “OMG OMG OMG OMG Payten Mann eng cant throww omg omg omg he past 3 ints vs atlants!” Just shut up already. The same media people were proclaiming that Peyton Manning was back to full strength a week ago.

Manning tossed three picks against Atlanta because defensive coordinator Mike Nolan confused him. Manning eventually figured it out, but it was too late. And if you’re not buying that, it’s not like Manning has never done this before. He tossed a whopping six picks versus the Chargers back in 2007, and guess what? He won his next game.

I know the Texans offer a great challenge. Wade Phillips has his defense playing incredibly well. J.J. Watt, Connor Barwin and Brooks Reed have an extreme edge over Denver’s offensive front. But Manning can get rid of the ball quickly enough to his talented weapons in order to avoid a multitude of sacks.

It’ll be difficult to move the chains consistently, however, because Willis McGahee will struggle to find running room against a defense that has surrendered only 140 rushing yards through two games.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Shutting down the Texans’ offense requires containing the two stud running backs. The Broncos can do that. Through two games, they’ve surrendered only 119 rushing yards at a 2.8 YPC clip, which is good for fifth in the NFL.

Then there’s Andre Johnson. With none of Houston’s young wideouts able to emerge as a consistent No. 2 option for Matt Schaub, Johnson is the only real downfield threat. The Broncos will use Champ Bailey to cover him, and they’ll smother Schaub’s other targets with everyone else.

Speaking of Schaub, his pass protection has not been tested yet. Thanks to several Miami turnovers and Jacksonville’s poor ground defense, Schaub hasn’t been forced to air it out yet behind an offensive line featuring two new starters on the right side. Unlike the Dolphins and Jaguars, the Broncos will be able to match Houston on the scoreboard, so the new front will have to keep Elvis Dumervil, Von Miller and Derek Wolfe at bay, which will prove to be difficult.

RECAP: Ladies and gentlemen, our overreaction spread of the week! This line was Broncos -2.5 prior to this past weekend. Because of three interceptions in one quarter, the Texans are -2. That’s a swing of 4.5 points!

The Broncos are the easy pick. There’s no way in hell they should be home underdogs to anyone. I like the Texans a lot in general, but they’ve beaten up on cupcakes thus far. A step up in competition, in what happens to be a very difficult place to play, will be extremely taxing.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No change. I still like the Broncos.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Another publicly backed dog.

Percentage of money on Houston: 69% (40,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Broncos are 23-15 ATS at home when the line is -3 to +3 the previous 37 instances.

Broncos are 11-34 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick: Broncos 27, Texans 23
Broncos +1.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Texans 31, Broncos 25

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-2)
Line: Steelers by 3.5. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -3.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Steelers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Steelers -4.
Sunday, Sept. 23, 4:15 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

It’s time for some Migelini Madness! NFL.com sucks. They no longer have their regular GameCenter chat format; they installed a Facebook chat app instead, which really blows. This means that we won’t be hearing from our favorite idiots anymore. No more pervy Aaron3619. No more stupid Migelini. No more childish Taton. No more insane Farim.

Well, I’m taking a stand against this via two methods. First, I have hundreds of unused GameCenter comments saved up, so I have enough to survive for a few more years. Second, I plan on re-creating our favorite GameCenter characters and having them troll the Facebook posters in the app. I made a Migelini account and my girlfriend, who was once harassed by Aaron3619, will be the new Aaron. Feel free to re-create other ones!

Here are some of the people I’ve trolled as Mario Migelini:

This is actually how the real Migelini felt. The Seahawks were cheated in that game, so the “rafaree made losted,” without a doubt.

I wonder if some people think that a fine institution such as Washington State offers spelling classes. If so, Mario Migelini must have used some slick cheating tactics to receive that A+.

Based on all of the crappy moves Mike Holmgren has made during his tenure in Cleveland, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he did offer the Bears a first-round pick for Tarvaris Jackson – even though Jackson is on the Bills.

I love how Danielle corrected “worstest” when that was the one word I separated. Why not correct me on “celvand” or “witten” or “worstor” or “then” or “sandchez” or even “daniel?” Mrs. Swift did not respond to me, so maybe she agrees that the Seahawks are, in fact, gong grate.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I slotted the Raiders 30th in my NFL Power Rankings, but they could have easily been dead last because of the number of injuries they’ve incurred. They lost No. 1 cornerback Ronald Bartell in Week 1, and now they’ll be without No. 2 corner Shawntae Spencer. That means they’ll have to roll with Patrick Lee and Joselio Hanson against Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. Good lord.

Ben Roethlisberger should have plenty of time to find his receivers downfield because the Raiders don’t put any pressure on the quarterback. The Steelers’ offensive line can be shaky, but because four of the five starters were actually in the lineup this past weekend, they held up pretty well against the Jets.

The Steelers should also be able to establish an effective ground attack with Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman. Oakland just allowed Reggie Bush to run wild, as defensive tackle Tommy Kelly has completely checked out. If the Raiders had any balls, they’d cut him immediately.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Raiders are having just as many problems on the other side of the ball. Where to begin… Well, Darren McFadden has been a huge flop thus far because he’s not comfortable in Greg Knapp’s blocking system. He’s averaging a pathetic 2.2 yards per carry. Of course, you can’t put all of this on McFadden because he’s simply not getting any blocking.

Carson Palmer’s not getting any blocking either. The offensive line, which was already a mess, lost right tackle Khalif Barnes to a groin injury. Now, Barnes isn’t that good, but he’s a billion times better than his backup, Willie Smith, who was completely manhandled in the Miami game.

Palmer will have to settle for short stuff yet again. But it’s not like he has a choice, given that he has lost all semblance of arm strength. Pittsburgh’s defense is going to eat him alive.

RECAP: I like betting on good teams going into byes because they’re almost always focused. The Steelers are obviously a good team, which would explain why they’re 4-1 against the spread just prior to their bye under Mike Tomlin. I don’t see why they can’t demolish the sorry, banged-up Raiders.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Troy Polamalu and James Harrison are out, but the Steelers will be fine. No change.

The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.

The Steelers are going into the bye, so they’ll be completely focused for Oakland.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

No surprise that all of the money on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 89% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Mike Tomlin is 4-1 ATS going into the bye.

Opening Line: Steelers -4.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick: Steelers 27, Raiders 10
Steelers -3.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 34, Steelers 31

New England Patriots (1-1) at Baltimore Ravens (1-1)
Line: Ravens by 2.5. Total: 48.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Ravens -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Ravens -2.5.
Sunday, Sept. 23, 8:20 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

The new Aaron account isn’t created yet, but I was pleasantly surprised to see someone make one for Taton. Ladies and gentlemen, Thomas Taton!

I cannot wait until we have a whole army of former GameCenter personalities harassing people on Facebook. That’s what NFL.com gets for getting rid of the GameCenter chat.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Aaron Hernandez’s absence will limit the Patriots. Wes Welker is a non-factor. The offensive line can’t block. Tom Brady is done. All thanks to one loss to the Cardinals.

No. There were two reasons for the Patriots’ stunning upset last week. First, Arizona’s defense is legit. The Cardinals are going to discombobulate many offenses this year. The other was Hernandez’s ankle sprain. It was huge because it completely ruined Bill Belichick’s game plan. He wasn’t able to adjust until halftime, but even at that point, New England was bound to be limited because it didn’t even think it would involve Welker as much against Arizona.

In-game injuries to key players have a profound effect. I’ll never forget what happened in 2004. The undefeated Patriots, coming off a Super Bowl victory, were favored at the Steelers, who had only one loss at that point. Cornerback Ty Law left the game with an injury early on, which put the kibosh on Belichick’s defensive game plan. Pittsburgh, as a result, scored 34 points and won easily. The whole week afterward, the media talked about New England as if the sky were falling. The sportsbooks overreacted to this, making the Patriots a pick-em at the above-average Rams the following week. New England won easily without Law, 40-22.

Hernandez is out 4-6 weeks, but Belichick will make the proper adjustments. He always does. He signed Deion Branch, so it appears as though he’s going back to the old offense. Brady, as he usually does, will rebound. He’ll torch the Ravens, who just surrendered 371 passing yards to the Eagles.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: For the first time in a long while, the Patriots have a pretty solid defense. First-round rookies Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower have both played well in their first two games, while having Patrick Chung healthy has been a big boost for the secondary. As a consequence, the Patriots are second versus the run (2.3 YPC) and third against the pass (5.7 YPA).

Of course, New England has battled two pedestrian offenses thus far, but it’s not like the Ravens are some juggernaut. Joe Flacco had some issues against the Eagles, as the two newcomers to the offensive front, left guard Ramon Harewood and right tackle Kelechi Osemele, struggled in pass protection. I imagine that they’ll have similar problems against the Patriots’ improved pass rush.

The Ravens will have to counter that by feeding Ray Rice the ball as much as possible. This should be obvious, but Rice had just 22 touches at Philadelphia. That’s unacceptable and speaks volumes about how ridiculous Cam Cameron’s game plans can be sometimes.

RECAP: New England is my September NFL Pick of the Month. I have many reasons for liking them:

1. I’ve made lots of money over the years betting on the Patriots when the media proclaims that the sky is falling in Foxborough. I mentioned the 2004 example. There was also last year when New England was an underdog at the Jets. And who could forget the 2008 post-Spygate victory with Matt Cassel at the helm? Belichick and Brady will be in F-U mode Sunday night.

2. Brady is pretty awesome when he’s in F-U mode coming off a loss. He’s 12-3 against the spread following a defeat since 2003 as long as he’s not favorted by a touchdown or more.

3. Betting on Brady when he’s an underdog is almost guaranteed money as well. He’s 15-7 versus the number when getting points since 2003.

Now, what if you put those situations together? How does Brady fare as an underdog after a loss? Let’s check out the results:

2003, at Eagles, +4.5: Win, 31-10
2005, at Steelers, +3: Win, 23-20
2006, at Bengals, +5.5: Win, 38-13
2010, at Steelers, +5: Win, 39-26
2011, at Jets, +2: Win, 37-16

So, not only is he 5-0 against the spread, and not only is he 5-0 straight up as an underdog; he has won these games by an average score of 34-17. Holy crap.

4. On top of all of these trends, we’re getting fantastic line value. This spread was pick-em prior to Week 2, but because the media has overreacted to one loss, it’s now Ravens -3. There’s absolutely no reason for a three-point swing.

Once again, this is my September NFL Pick of the Month. Barring more in-game injuries for the Patriots, they should win pretty easily.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nothing has changed for me despite the line movement.

The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.
Yes, this is revenge for Baltimore, but New England will want to rebound off its embarrassing loss to Arizona.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 50% (48,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Tom Brady is 136-45 as a starter (105-72 ATS).

Tom Brady is 24-12 ATS off a loss (4-6 ATS as -7 or more).

Tom Brady is 16-8 ATS off a loss since 2003 (4-5 ATS as -7 or more).

Tom Brady is 15-7 ATS as an underdog since 2003.

Opening Line: Ravens -3.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick: Patriots 34, Ravens 17
Patriots +2.5 (7 Units – September NFL Pick of the Month) — Correct; +$700
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 31, Patriots 30

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)
Line: Packers by 3. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Packers -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Packers -4.5.
Monday, Sept. 24, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Packers.

This week on Monday Night Football, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here’s what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Seattle, an absolute abomination of a city where it never stops raining. Trust me, I know. I watched AMC’s the Killing. Guys, I really need a winner here. I lost my daughter’s college tuition taking that hack WalterFootball.com’s advice and betting the Bears over the Packers last week.

Emmitt: Kasey, my advise to you is not bet away your daughter’s college intuition. There is nothin’ more importance than goin’ to college and gettin’ educationed. As a proud graduation of Florida State University, I use my educationed in all matter of life.

Reilly: But WalterFootball.com had four units on the Bears. Four f***ing units! Now my daughter won’t be able to go to school!

Tollefson: Guys, I must interrupt you for a second. Are we really discussing a woman going to college? What’s next, are we going to send a monkey to law school?

Reilly: Did you just compare my daughter to a monkey!?

Tollefson: Well, yes. Look, there are only three schools that women should attend: Cooking school if they can’t cook; cleaning school if they can’t clean; and prostitution school if they can’t pleasure you in the bedroom.

Reilly: My daughter’s smart! I’m going to kill you for saying those things!

Tollefson: If you kill me, you won’t get tonight’s winner.

Reilly: Oh, you know who’s going to cover? Tell me! Please, for the love of God, tell me!

Griese: Cover? You mean like a blanket?

Reilly: Shut up, senile old man! Tolly, tell me who’s going to cover, or my daughter’s college tuition is gone, and I’m going to be f***ed up the a**! Oh Christ, why did I just say that!?

Millen: Speaking of getting f***ed up the a**, let me tell you about my kielbasa party last night. It was a huge hit. Russell Wilson came by and I showed him my assortment of kielbasas. He was very impressed. Then Marshawn Lynch and Braylon Edwards joined us, and well, I don’t need to tell you what happened.

Reilly: Oh, thank God.

Millen: I don’t need to tell you, but I will. First, I rammed some Biala kielbasa up Wilson’s backside and rode him for several hours like the 100-percent USDA Man that he is. As I did this, Braylon and Marshawn did the same thing to each other. Then we switched partners and…

Reilly: I don’t want to hear this anymore! Someone, quick, talk about this game!

Davis: For the Seahawks, you have Russell Wilson, he was ridden like a 100-percent USDA Man last night. What about Marshawn Lynch? He had some Polish white kielbasa in his backside. What about Sidney Rice? No kielbasa for him; maybe he’ll get some later. What about Braylon Edwards? He and Marshawn shared…

Reilly: Look what you did Millen! You screwed up Charles’ Davis ability to read down a roster list and note some quick facts about each player! I’m so disgusted right now that I don’t even care about my daughter’s college tuition anymore. We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: When will all of these difficult matchups for Aaron Rodgers come to an end? He struggled with the 49ers in the opener and battled the Bears this past Thursday, and now he has to take on Seattle’s awesome secondary, currently ranked sixth in YPA (6.1).

It would help Rodgers if his receivers stopped dropping passes and running incorrect routes. The Packers dropped five balls Thursday night, with the primary culprits being Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley. The good news for Green Bay is that Greg Jennings returned to practice Thursday and is listed as probable.

The Packers had issues dealing with the Bears’ pass rush, so they tried pounding the ball with Cedric Benson and were successful in doing so, thanks to the utter amount of respect the Bears had for Rodgers. But given how stout their secondary is, the Seahawks may not have to sell out against the pass. If so, Benson’s not going anywhere because Seattle has a stalwart ground defense.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Few teams run the ball as well as the Seahawks. Despite receiving a new contract, Marshawn Lynch picked up where he left off last year, pummeling opposing defenses with his trademark, punishing running style. The Packers, ranked 29th versus ground attacks (4.96 YPC), thanks in part to stud linebacker Desmond Bishop’s absence, are going to struggle to bring down Lynch.

The Seahawks don’t pass protect very well, so it’s a good thing they’ll have Lynch to keep Russell Wilson out of third-and-long situations. Wilson has done a good job of managing the game thus far, but unless the Packers stink offensively, which is very unlikely, Wilson will actually have to do more to keep his team close.

I like Wilson; he’s a great leader and he can pick up chunks of yardage on the ground. However, moving the chains aerially will be a bit of a problem for him because his receivers can’t get separation. We all saw what the Packers did to Brandon Marshall on Thursday night. They can handle Seattle’s wideouts.

RECAP: This is going to be a tough game for the Packers, but I think they’ll get the job done. It’s worth noting that there is good line value in their favor. This spread was -5 a week ago, but Seattle’s victory over Dallas dropped it to -3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No change.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

A good amount of money is on the visitor.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 81% (86,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Packers are 34-18 ATS on the road under Mike McCarthy.

Aaron Rodgers is 34-18 ATS since 2009.

Seahawks are 17-4 ATS in September home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Packers -4.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick: Packers 23, Seahawks 17
Packers -3 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 14, Packers 12

Week 3 NFL Picks – Early Games
Giants at Panthers, Rams at Bears, Bills at Browns, Buccaneers at Cowboys, Jaguars at Colts, Jets at Dolphins, 49ers at Vikings, Lions at Titans, Bengals at Redskins, Chiefs at Saints

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Bears -1, 49ers -0.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220

Moneyline Underdog: Buccaneers +320 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline Underdog: Titans +170 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$85

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)