NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2012

NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 6-9-1 (-$1,440)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2012): 3-13 (-$2,250)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2012): 8-7-1 (+$430)

NFL Picks (2012): 17-29-2 (-$3,260)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 24, 5:25 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 3 NFL Picks – Late Games

New York Giants (1-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-1)
Line: Panthers by 2.5. Total: 49.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Giants -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Giants -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Panthers -1.
Thursday, Sept. 20, 8:20 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Giants.

WEEK 2 RECAP: I really needed a rebound week for my sanity. I went 8-7-1, +$430 this past weekend after bombing Week 1. A few things of note about Week 2:

1. I’d like to consider the Bears-Packers result as part of Week 1. That’s not to make me look better or anything, but I spent all Friday night and Saturday locked in my office, trying desperately to figure out what I was doing wrong. Knock on wood, but I think I’ve calibrated everything correctly. I honestly was much more confident going into Sunday, and I feel even better about my handicapping ability now.

2. You may have noticed that I made about half-a-dozen unit and pick adjustments on Friday and Saturday. That was part of the calibration process, so I definitely won’t be making nearly as many late changes going forward. Yes, I know I left money on the board with the Panthers and Ravens, but I did raise units on the Steelers and 49ers.

3. Making these picks on Wednesday should be better in terms of knowing injuries. Barring something crazy, I’ll only be making late pick changes because of injuries, so there should be fewer adjustments with the new schedule. I have gotten some complaints about the day change however, so if you have a problem with this, please voice your opinion in the comment box below or via e-mail.

4. Last week I wrote that you’d have to be insane not to take the Patriots in survivor. I absolutely stand by that. You consistently win in survivor by taking the best team in the best situation. It doesn’t always work, but it’s the best formula for being successful in survivor pools.

5. Despite having a winning week, I still received some hate mail. I’ll post that later.

I’ll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants have one significant injury on offense, and it’s not to Ahmad Bradshaw, who is just a mediocre running back and is easily replaceable with Andre Brown. It’s to David Diehl, the right tackle. Diehl isn’t very good either, but the move will force Will Beatty into left tackle so that Sean Locklear can move into the vacated area.

This presents a huge matchup problem for the Giants, as ends Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy have gotten consistent pressure on the quarterback in the early going. As a consequence, Eli Manning will have to get the ball out extra quickly to Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Martellus Bennett. Nicks is questionable, by the way, after seemingly aggravating his foot injury at the end of the Tampa Bay contest.

The good news for the Giants is that they’ll be able to establish a strong ground attack, even with Bradshaw out. The Panthers couldn’t stop Doug Martin or Pierre Thomas, thanks to poor defensive tackle play.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers have a potential issue on their offensive line as well. Right tackle Byron Bell, who has held up surprisingly well in the wake of Jeff Otah’s release, is questionable with an ankle. Garry Williams, who is no longer coaching the Maryland Terps (zing), will get the start if Bell can’t go. This could be very problematic, given how fierce the Giants’ pass rush can be.

Of course, Cam Newton will scramble around and either buy himself time to throw or break big gains downfield. If he does find time to pass, he’ll find things more difficult than Josh Freeman did last week because Keith Rivers and Prince Amukamara are expected to be on the field for a change.

The Panthers will want to establish the ground attack again after utilizing it so shockingly well against the Saints. The Giants are 27th versus the rush (4.9 YPC), but having Rivers back will help.

RECAP: I like the Panthers a good deal. The old adage is to take quality Thursday night home teams (if it’s a non-divisional game) because the visitor doesn’t have enough time to prepare while traveling on a short work week.

I also think this is a statement game for Carolina. Newton was not featured in a national TV affair last year, so this is his first time to be in the spotlight with his new team. He’ll want to show the world that the Panthers are legitimate contenders.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has moved to -2.5 because Nicks is out. This is a really tough game for the Giants; they’re missing key personnel and have to prepare for a two-dimensional quarterback they’ve never seen before while traveling on just three days of rest. I’m standing by my four-unit selection.

The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.

This seems like a big statement game for the Panthers, who can prove that they’re legitimate on national TV. The Giants have the Eagles next week.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Action has evened out since the Hakeem Nicks announcement.

Percentage of money on New York: 59% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Giants are 33-17 ATS on the road since 2006 (0-1 on Thursdays).

Panthers are 30-41 ATS at home since 2003.

Opening Line: Giants -1.5.

Opening Total: 52.

Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick: Panthers 24, Giants 17
Panthers -2.5 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Under 49.5 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Giants 36, Panthers 7
Recap of this game

St. Louis Rams (1-1) at Chicago Bears (1-1)
Line: Bears by 7. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bears -10.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Bears -9.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Bears -7.
Sunday, Sept. 23, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Bears.

VEGAS RECAP: Casual bettors are going to have to start turning tricks on the corner if they keep losing like this. The sportsbook slaughtered the public for the second week in a row, winning six of the 10 highly bet games. Vegas won with the Buccaneers, Cardinals, Panthers, Dolphins, Seahawks and Rams covering. They lost with the Ravens, Texans, Chargers and 49ers. They’re going to have to give some money back to Joe Public soon enough.

I’ll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I’ll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: All talk about the Bears’ offense has to begin with Jay Cutler’s whiny demeanor. He barked at beleaguered left tackle J’Marcus Webb and then shoved him on Thursday night. I’d normally dismiss something like this, but safety D.J. Moore called out Cutler, saying that he should blame himself for his horrific performance. And Moore is absolutely right.

Cutler always has several stinkers every year, and as Bill Simmons pointed out, they just look extra bad because Cutler is always crying and complaining. He’ll rebound, just as he always does. The Rams have absolutely no pass rush outside of Chris Long, who will not be on Webb’s side, so Cutler will have way more time in the pocket than he did last week.

The Bears won’t have Matt Forte, but Michael Bush should have a great performance. The Rams, clearly missing rookie defensive tackle Michael Brockers (who is doubtful), are 28th versus the rush, surrendering 4.9 YPC.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: It doesn’t look like it because they just won, but the Rams have some serious issues with their offensive line. Left tackle Rodger Saffold, left guard Rokevious Watkins and center Chris Wells are all out. The Redskins couldn’t take advantage of this because they lost Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker early on, but Chicago surely will make them pay.

Sam Bradford won’t have much time in the pocket with Julius Peppers breathing down his neck, so he’ll have to settle for short stuff to Danny Amendola again. This worked well versus Washington, but an elite defense like Chicago’s can’t be beaten via dinking and dunking.

St. Louis will have to establish either Steven Jackson or Daryl Richardson to keep Bradford upright. Jackson is questionable with a groin, and I’d normally be concerned about this, but Richardson filled in admirably Sunday prior to fumbling at the very end. The Bears made Cedric Benson look good, but they’ll be stronger versus the rush this week because they won’t be completely selling out against the pass.

RECAP: The Bears could be flat following their loss to the Packers. That’s the only reason why I’m not making a big play on them. I still like them to cover because of St. Louis’ injuries and the ridiculous amount of line value we’re getting with Chicago. The advance spread was -10.5 prior to Week 2. Shifting it down to -7 is a complete overreaction to one game. The Bears are much better than the Rams, who typically don’t play well outdoors.

SURVIVOR PICK: I’m eliminated, but I’ll give my top three survivor options this week. I’d go with the Bears, Saints and Cowboys in that order.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Rams are so banged up. Three offensive linemen are already out, and now backup tackle Wayne Hunter is questionable with an ankle. This line has dropped to -7 because of the Cutler overreaction. I’m going to place a unit on Chicago.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.

The Bears just suffered a loss to the Packers, so they could be flat against a non-divisional opponent.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 57% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Rams are 20-34 ATS on grass since 2001.

Bears are 16-8 ATS after losing to the Packers since 1992.

Jay Cutler is 32-48 ATS.

Jay Cutler is 16-23 ATS as a favorite.

Jay Cutler is 4-7 ATS when favored by 7 or more.

Opening Line: Bears -8.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick: Bears 27, Rams 13
Bears -7 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Survivor Pick (1-1)
Bears 23, Rams 6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1)
Line: Cowboys by 8. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Cowboys -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Cowboys -6.5.
Sunday, Sept. 23, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: .

HATE MAIL: I won last weekend, but the hate mail kept pouring in. Here is some of the hate mail, as well as my responses:

I am torn between Kate Middleton’s tiitie pics or Jerry Sandusky’s kiidie pics. Bottom line Atl -3 BTW that football analysis is just as good as Walts.

Wait, did you just admit to being a child molester?

Walt’s QBDK name for Michael Vick makes him look like a child. His petty bias against the Eagles is pathetic. He refuses to give the Eagles team any credit. He keeps posting stupid facebook screenshots and other worthless crap as well. Your not funny Walt. You comedy sucks. The only time I laugh on this site is when I see you trying to riddle out why this whole football thing eludes you. I could tell you a million things you do wrong, like relying on arbitrary trends and meaningless psychological factors instead of looking at real football facts.

Here are some facts: 1) The Eagles haven’t covered the spread yet and they’re two plays away from being 0-2, so they don’t deserve any credit. 2) I am not trying to be funny, but because you recognize my writing as comedy means that you do actually find it funny. Lawyered. 3) You support someone who took pleasure out of drowning dogs. I’ll take not being funny over being a psychopath anyday.

Couldnt agree more, joe. If this thread was down I’m not sure I’d even come back. His “psychological edge” postings are a joke, and his fake conversations aren’t even funny, it’s embarassing. Please just post info and analysis.

The psychological edge postings that you despise so much are 32-27 against the spread since Week 1 of last year. Not great, by any stretch, but certainly not a joke. The fact that you are too ignorant to understand that it’s at least somewhat effective makes me feel even better about my fake conversations. I may even add more because of what you just wrote!

Walt, your fake conversations and pseudo-comedy are pathetic. Please stick to capping games. You’re driving away your serious readers with this nonsense, drop your QBDK shtick and annoying Facebook screen shots and spend more time giving good insight into football. This long time reader is one more idiotic update about random fb trolls away from not coming back. You were respectable, but your turning into the same sort of side show that you mock every week. -Ryan

Who said I wanted to keep any serious readers? Serious readers are stupid and boring. I want “unserious” readers who don’t have sand in their vag like you.

I think it’s kind of sad about the guy who asked to date your girlfriend on Facebook. I don’t think it’s very nice to humiliate the guy because he is lonely. You should be ashamed of yourself…. Please Stick to what you know, incorrectly picking football games

But humiliating ~~creepy stalkers~~ lonely people is so much fun… 🙁

@Jennifer I agree your humor is classless and consists of putting other people down, equivalent to the kind of humor you see in grade school high school. What we should really do is make fun of your girlfriend.

I agree that Jennifer’s humor is classless. Her hate mail to me was not funny at all. But I am curious about Jennifer having a girlfriend. I am very pro-lesbian. In fact, I’m thinking about becoming a lesbian myself.

so hows the bear looking?? hahhaahhaha fade walter all year

The Bear? Which Bear? There are 53 of them, so should I go down the roster?

Ok Walter you are the clown and laughing stock of the NFL football world at the moment. A 2-14 start for you is about as bad as it can be..right? I will let you my pet monkey and magic 8ball so you can get back on track. Thanks for that Bear pick last night. Made a $100 on GBay.

Now here’s an “unserious” reader I want! This guy thinks I’m funny and everything. He may have his facts wrong – I started 3-14, pal – but at least his appreciates my comedic genius!

And finally, PGUP9, who takes pleasure in my misery, e-mailed me twice. This one was on Thursday night:

I heard from PGUP9 on Sunday, which was surprising because I was having my first winning day of the season:

I find it very disturbing that this guy seems to get off whenever I do poorly. It’s like he’s in his mom’s basement, looking carefully at my picks with some lotion on his hand going, “Ohhhh yeahahhh ooooohhh yeaahhhh Walt’s losing eight units thiss weeekk ooooohhh maaann that feeels goooood.”

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys killed themselves in Seattle. Tony Romo’s interception was bad, but his receivers were the main culprits, as Jason Witten and Dez Bryant dropped easy reception after easy reception. You have to believe that they’ll rebound from that ugly performance, and they won’t have any excuses based on whom they’re battling this week.

The Buccaneers, as you may know, surrendered 510 passing yards to Eli Manning. The secondary was already a mess, and now it might be without Eric Wright, who is questionable with a back injury. Wright wasn’t very good in the first place (aside from his awesome pick-six), but he’ll still be missed because Tampa has depth issues at the position.

Fortunately for the Buccaneers, they should be able to apply pressure on Romo. Michael Bennett and Gerald McCoy both get to the quarterback consistently, and we all know how bad the interior of Dallas’ offensive line is, especially with center Phil Costa injured. Costa is listed as questionable, but he missed practice Wednesday.

Despite Costa’s absence, it’ll be surprising if Dallas can’t establish DeMarco Murray as a consistent threat on the ground. The Buccaneers, after all, just made Andre Brown look like a pretty decent back.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers are pretty underrated because the public looks at Josh Freeman and just brushes him off as mediocre. But Freeman has played pretty well in a rebound season, and there’s no reason to expect him to regress against a very banged-up Dallas secondary that could be missing both starting safeties.

Those aren’t the only major injuries the Cowboys have. Nose tackle Jay Ratliff continues to miss practices and games. Like Costa, he’s questionable but wasn’t at practice Wednesday. As a result, Dallas isn’t getting as much of a pass rush as it normally would, so that’ll obviously benefit Freeman.

Meanwhile, Doug Martin should have another good game. The Cowboys just surrendered 154 rushing yards to the Seahawks, and Martin is the same sort of tough runner that Marshawn Lynch is.

RECAP: The Buccaneers are one of my favorite plays this week. This spread is way too high. The only reason people think the Cowboys are much better than the Buccaneers is because of all the star power. Romo, Bryant, Witten, etc. are fantasy studs. In reality though, these teams are pretty close to even; this spread should be -4.5 or so. Dallas is just getting way too much respect because of that win over the Giants, but the team spent the entire spring and summer preparing for that game. The Cowboys aren’t as bad as they were in that loss to Seattle, but they’re somewhere in between the Week 1 victory and Week 2 defeat.

There are also two powerful trends that favor the visitor. Teams playing back-to-back road games tend to cover at a 67-percent clip as underdogs, while Week 3 hosts playing their home opener have an awful track record dating back 25 years (thanks to forum member Skunkwick for pointing this out). Perhaps they’re worn out from so much traveling.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nothing has changed. I still really like Tampa.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 53% (59,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Tony Romo is 11-6 ATS as a starter in September.

Tony Romo is 8-15 ATS as a favorite of -7 or more excluding Thanksgiving (4-1 on Thanksgiving).

Opening Line: Cowboys -7.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Retractable roof.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Cowboys 23, Buccaneers 20
Buccaneers +8 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 16, Buccaneers 10

San Francisco 49ers (2-0) at Minnesota Vikings (1-1)
Line: 49ers by 6.5. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -6.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): 49ers -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): 49ers -7.
Sunday, Sept. 23, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

You may think that I only receive hate mail during football season and maybe draft season, but oh no! I can assure you that people like to get pissed off at me in the summer as well. There really is no offseason for hate mail.

I released some NFL Power Rankings over the summer. Under the Bills’ capsule, I wrote, “I love how Mario Williams had to be convinced that Buffalo is an ‘OK place to live’ prior to signing with the Bills. I wonder what they said to him? ‘Hey Mario, our Applebee’s is awesome, and our Dave & Buster’s is brand new, and the women… well, let’s just say that it’s a good thing you have a fiancee because the women… well…'”

This was obviously a joke. It was a spoof of what Willis McGahee said about Buffalo when he left the city several years ago. In fact, here’s his direct quote: “Coming from Miami, I was used to partying, going out, just having something to do every night. Restaurants, whatever. Going to Buffalo, it was like hitting a brick wall. Like, ‘Damn!’ Can’t go out, can’t do nothing. There’s an Applebee’s, a TGI Friday’s, and they just got a Dave & Busters. They got that, and I’m like, ‘What the?’ And, you know, the women…”

I thought Buffalo fans would find what I wrote at least semi-amusing because it related to what McGahee once said. Apparently, however, they have short memories. Some Bills’ backer tagged me on Facebook and copy-pasted what I wrote, spawning numerous angry responses from some ignorant people in Buffalo:

Just so happens he went to Penn State,i wonder if he was one of “Jerrys Kids”?

That’s nice. Very classy of you to disrespect the Penn State rape victims by making a joke out of it. You sound like a great person.

he lives in Philly – trust me, his life is sad – and he went to Penn State, nuff said…..ohhhh and Philly girls – there is a reason why I moved…

Hey, I’ve lived in Philly most of my life, and we’re certainly the fattest city in America, as some poll indicated. In fact, it’s so bad that I recently wrote an entry about four fat women who harassed me.

what a douchebag!

I am a douche bag, but not for this. Learn about your team, bub.

This guy is updating this page every day, even multiple times a day. I love the Bills and all of those comments, not just the one pertaining to women, made me angry and wanting to say something to him but that’s probably what he’s looking for. More people to chat with him via facebook because he is a loser. According to his facebook page, it doesn’t look like he even has a job so it would be a waste of time to interact with this idiot.

I have a job. You’re reading it. And supporting it by linking my Web site. So thanks.

Let’s go to Philly and kick his a**!!

My a** has not been kicked, so this was a poor attempt at rallying the troops. Now, if only there were hot women in Buffalo to motivate people to kick my a**…

Cherepinsky…DEAD. Right after we get done with Nedermeyer.

I assume this is either a hockey reference or an Animal House quote. But I don’t know much about hockey, and I don’t remember that being said at all in Animal House. Meh, I’ll just chalk it up to Buffalo people being weird. No wonder McGahee wanted to leave.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: It seems like it should be simple logic. Adrian Peterson struggled on the ground against the Colts, gaining just 60 yards on 16 carries. The 49ers are much better versus than the run than Indianapolis, so Peterson shouldn’t be effective whatsoever. Based on his troubled history against San Francisco, that shouldn’t be surprising; he has just 88 rushing yards on 33 carries in the two occasions he’s battled them.

With Peterson unable to get yards against the 49ers, it’ll be difficult for Christian Ponder to consistently move the chains, especially given that San Francisco’s tremendous pass rush will be breathing down his neck. The right side of Minnesota’s offensive line is an abomination, so the 49ers should be able to exploit that easily.

It’s just really difficult to imagine the Vikings consistently generating offense in this contest. They’ll need Percy Harvin to break some fluky big gains, or something. If elite offenses like Green Bay and Detroit can’t do anything against the 49er defense, then how can the Vikings, who have only one downfield weapon?

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: This is Alex Smith’s third-consecutive game against an NFC North foe, and it’s also his third-consecutive contest versus a team with major questions in its secondary. Andrew Luck dissected Minnesota’s defensive backfield in the first half this past Sunday (as well as the final minute of the game), so Smith, who has superior weapons, should be similarly successful.

Smith has barely been pressured in his two victories, so Jared Allen, Brian Robison and Kevin Williams will have to be the first team to rattle him if they want to win this game. The Robison-Anthony Davis is probably Minnesota’s best chance, though Jared Allen could always dominate.

Of course, the Vikings will have to shut down San Francisco’s ground attack as well. They did a great job versus Donald Brown last week, but that’s not especially difficult. Containing Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter behind the 49ers’ powerful run-blocking front is a completely different animal.

RECAP: This is the last pick I made because I have absolutely no feel for this game whatsoever. It seems like the 49ers could be flat off two tough battles, but they’re a very strong-minded team that doesn’t seem prone to that sort of thing. But maybe they are, I don’t know – but I’m going to pick them because I have no real reason to select the Vikings.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still wouldn’t bet on this game, but I’m slightly more confident in the 49ers because Vikings’ linebacker Erin Henderson is out, meaning Jasper Brinkley will have to play all three downs. That could cause disastrous matchup problems for Minnesota.

The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.

The 49ers may have some sort of a letdown after beating the Packers and Lions.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

Why would anyone bet on the Vikings against the 49ers?

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 84% (73,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 3 NFL Pick: 49ers 23, Vikings 6
49ers -6.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Vikings 24, 49ers 13

Detroit Lions (1-1) at Tennessee Titans (0-2)
Line: Lions by 3.5. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Titans -1.

Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Lions -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Lions -3.
Sunday, Sept. 23, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Lions.

The most illiterate sports bettor in the world is a man named the Real John Moss. He loves to e-mail me and talk to me on G-chat. Sometimes my laptop is off, yet the Real John Moss still tries to contact me. For instance, back in February:

And the next day…

The next time I actually spoke to him was during the 2012 NFL Draft:

The Real John Moss always bragged about having lots of girls at his parties. Based on what he said about Matt Kalil, I believe some of those “girls” looked like this:

I don’t think I’ll be attending any of the Real John Moss’ parties anytime soon.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Titans had a poor defensive showing in San Diego, as Philip Rivers lit them up. I think most of their problems are correctable though. Rivers scored a touchdown on the first drive thanks in part because Tennessee was whistled for being offsides twice. Rivers’ second scoring drive was aided by a ridiculously late roughing-the-passer penalty on Kamerion Wimbley after the Titans forced a fourth down.

Tennessee simply has disciplinary issues, so it’s not a lack of talent that’s plaguing them. The team can get to the quarterback with Wimbley, Derrick Morgan and third-round rookie defensive tackle Mike Martin all playing well. They’ll need to rattle Matthew Stafford because it’ll be difficult for them to contain all of his weapons with stud linebacker Colin McCarthy out again.

The Lions will have Mikel Leshoure back, so they could establish a consistent ground attack for a change, depending on how much they plan on utilizing him. Tennessee has surrendered 300 rushing yards through two contests, ranking an average 16th in terms of YPC (4.2). Again, this is an area where they miss McCarthy.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The defense isn’t the only unit on the Titans’ roster that is making mistakes. Jake Locker looks completely uncomfortable in the pocket, constantly throwing off his back foot and bouncing passes to his receivers. He’s a mess, but the Titans can’t bench him in favor of Matt Hasselbeck because Hasselbeck stinks.

The one thing going in Locker’s favor is that he’s battled two pretty tough defenses thus far. The Lions don’t have one because they’re missing key personnel. It appears as though they’ll have cornerbacks Chris Houston and Bullet Bill Bentley back from injury, but safety Louis Delmas and reserve corner Drayton Florence will now be missing in action. Defensive tackle Corey Williams is also expected to be out.

Locker will have to somehow avoid Detroit’s tremendous pass rush, however, which means that Chris Johnson will need to help him out. CJ1.1 hasn’t been able to do anything but dance around the line of scrimmage thus far, but he may find some running room this week because the Lions are pretty bad against rush, ranking 22nd against it (4.6 YPC).

RECAP: There are three reasons why I like the Titans a good deal:

1. The Lions just played a tough, emotional game at the 49ers, but fell short. I think they’re in a flat spot as a road favorite against an 0-2 squad they know nothing about.

2. Tennessee has lost consecutive games by 20-plus points. Teams in that situation tend to cover at a high rate, going 32-16 against the spread the past 10 years.

3. I love the line value we’re getting with Tennessee. The advance spread on this game was Titans -1 prior to Week 2. Now it’s Lions -3 based on overreaction to Tennessee’s blowout loss at San Diego.

I’m taking the host for three units. I’d make this an even bigger play (4-5 units) if I had more faith that the Titans wouldn’t kill themselves with dumb mistakes.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nothing has changed. I still really like the Titans.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

The Lions suffered an emotional loss to the 49ers in what was billed as a revenge game. They’ll be flat against the “pathetic” Titans.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Who would bet on the Titans?

Percentage of money on Detroit: 88% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Lions are 8-16 ATS against losing teams the previous 24 instances.

Titans are 20-7 ATS in non-conference home games.

Opening Line: Lions -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick: Titans 27, Lions 23
Titans +3.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Titans 44, Lions 41

Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) at Washington Redskins (1-1)
Line: Redskins by 3. Total: 50.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Redskins -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Redskins -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Redskins -4.
Sunday, Sept. 23, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Redskins.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. If you haven’t heard the betting trend that NPR came up with, one of their broadcasters revealed that East Coast teams playing on the West Coast at night seldom cover because the human body tends to shut down at 10 p.m. The NPR broadcaster then said that betting against the Lions was a great proposition.

I was ready to jump all over that. “Detroit isn’t on the East Coast, you freaking idiot!” I was prepared to write. It then dawned on me that he just meant Eastern time zone, but still, Detroit is in the Central time zone, right?

It’s a good thing I wasn’t able to post this until now because forum member mdb pointed out that Detroit is, in fact, in the Eastern time zone somehow. This blew my mind. I always just assumed that Detroit was located in the Central time zone. It’s bulls*** that they’re allowed to have Eastern time, but whatever. I guess you learn something new every day.

One thing has become clear though: I always thought that the people at NPR are stupid, when all along, it was the guy running WalterFootball.com who was an idiot.

2. I take a lot of grief for my NFL Power Rankings, but even though I get stuff wrong, I honestly think they’re better than 99 percent of those out there because they just basically copy-paste team standings, looking only at team records. ESPN is especially guilty of this.

E-mailer Kevin J. pointed out something John Clayton wrote in ESPN’s power rankings last week:

32 – Colts – Andrew Luck is off to (a) great start, but the defense and running game need lots of work. (Clayton)

What does this even mean? How was Luck off to a great start? He threw three picks, two of which were the result of arm strength, and he looked a bit overwhelmed in the pocket. Meanwhile, it’s still early, but Robert Griffin looks like he’s a billion times better than Luck. So how the hell is that a great start? It’s an average start – at best.

3. I’m still pissed at Jay Cutler for his horrific performance against the Packers, so I was happy when Steven L., owner of FootballFanSpot.com, posted this picture on my Facebook wall:

Ugh. How did I ever bet $440 on this guy?

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: I have to start with the Bengals’ offense because of the insane amount of injures that Washington’s defense sustained last week. Top pass-rusher Brian Orakpo and starting five-tech Adam Carriker were both lost for the season. Starting cornerback Josh Wilson, meanwhile, is doubtful with a concussion. How are the Redskins going to stop the Bengals with all of these injuries?

BenJarvus Green-Ellis should have a big game. Washington just surrendered 141 rushing yards to the Rams, who were utilizing backup Daryl Richardson for three quarters. Orakpo and Carriker were two of the Redskins’ better run defenders, so I can’t see their 30th ranking improving very much.

Andy Dalton has to be thrilled that Orakpo’s not playing because he’s been sacked more times (10) than any other quarterback in the NFL through two games. He’ll have a cleaner pocket this Sunday, while Wilson’s absence will allow him to easily find A.J. Green and the rest of his receivers downfield.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Bengals have endured defensive injury issues of their own. Linebacker Thomas Howard was recently placed on injured reserve. Top defensive end Carlos Dunlap and rookie cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick have missed action, but the good news is that Marvin Lewis was optimistic about their return.

Having Dunlap back especially would be huge because Cincinnati is currently dead last versus the rush, surrendering an abysmal 5.9 YPC. Alfred Morris will surely eclipse the century mark if Dunlap can’t return.

Of course, Robert Griffin will break off big chunks of yardage on the ground, and he’ll also hit several deep passes if his receivers don’t drop them, unlike last week. It’ll help though that Pierre Garcon is expected to be available; he was limited in practice Wednesday.

RECAP: Remember that Week 3 home system that I mentioned in the Buccaneers-Cowboys game? Well, it applies here as well. That’s one of the reasons I like the Bengals to cover. The other is all of Washington’s injuries. The team will not be the same without Orakpo, Carriker and Wilson.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Redskins’ injury situation isn’t as dire as I thought, as corner Josh Wilson can play. The Bengals, meanwhile, have issues of their own, with Leon Hall questionable and Dre Kirkpatrick doubtful. I’m going to drop all units on this game; I liked Cincinnati much more when it was +4.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action, surprisingly.

Percentage of money on Washington: 58% (49,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Bengals are 17-11 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Redskins are 6-11 ATS in September home games since 2001.

Opening Line: Redskins -3.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick: Redskins 24, Bengals 23
Bengals +3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 50 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bengals 38, Redskins 31

New York Jets (1-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-1)
Line: Jets by 2.5. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Jets -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Jets -5.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Jets -3.
Sunday, Sept. 23, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Jets.

Some college football notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. Hunter posted this in our Packers-Bears game thread, which made me feel better about losing $440 on Jay “sand-in-the-vag” Cutler:

At first glance, it looks like the blond cheerleader’s hand is grabbing the mascot’s crotch, which would be awesome. I feel like America would really benefit from hot cheerleaders running around and touching guys’ wangs. All of our economic and political worries would quickly go away. But upon further inspection, it seems like the mascot is trying his best to hide his hard-on. And who could possibly blame him?

2. The South may produce the best football players, but here’s proof that they aren’t, as Emmitt Smith would say, the sharpest light bulbs in the toolshed:

So, the people at LSU want to take a shower at Penn State and then support Alabama? Why? Does Jerry Sandusky have some sort of magic touch that makes you switch allegiances?

3. Speaking of Penn State, I discussed kicker Sam Ficken last week and how I found it astonishing that Penn State couldn’t find a better kicker among its student body of 60,000. E-mailer Alex H. sent me an e-mail upon reading that:

I read your rant about PSU’s kicker Sam Ficken. When I watched the game I had to laugh so hard since it means “to f***” in German.

So I guess that means Ficken fickened Penn State’s chances of winning? If so, I want Ficken to stay on the roster.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The big injury news regarding this matchup is that Darrelle Revis is probable. Revis missed this past Sunday’s contest, and the Jets consequently had no answer for Pittsburgh’s aerial attack.

With Revis back in the lineup, it’ll allow the Jets to completely focus on shutting down Reggie Bush. New York can dominate games defensively if the opposing offense can do only one thing well, and that’s the case in this situation. It’s all Bush and nothing else.

Ryan Tannehill will undoubtedly face many third-and-long situations. Unless he settles for quick checkdowns, the Jets will have an opportunity to pile up the sacks. Quinton Coples, who has been disappointing after an awesome preseason, must come alive and finally live up to expectations.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: If Mark Sanchez has a couple more stinkers, Rex Ryan won’t have a choice but to give Tim Tebow a shot. Sanchez was awful against a Steeler defense missing Troy Polamalu and James Harrison.

Sanchez had some protection issues in that defeat, mainly from right tackle Austin Howard, who was finally exposed. The Dolphins have Cameron Wake and Randy Starks, both of whom get to the quarterback consistently. Wake has an apparent easy matchup against Howard that he’ll need to exploit.

If Sanchez doesn’t have time to throw the ball, the Jets won’t be able to move the chains whatsoever. The ground attack won’t work at all; the Dolphins, ranked No. 3 in terms of YPC (2.4), have done a terrific job of shutting down Arian Foster and Darren McFadden. Shonn Greene isn’t even a 10th as talented as those guys.

RECAP: This figures to be a low-scoring game, so I’m going to take the points. I hate fading line value (the Jets were -4.5 a week ago), but the Dolphins have a tremendous advantage at home in a 1 p.m. September game. They’ll once again sport their white uniforms, forcing New York to bake in the hot sun with its dark-green jerseys.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No change.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

A good, predictable lean on the Jets.

Percentage of money on New York: 82% (55,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

History: Road Team has won 6 of the last 9 meetings.

Dolphins are 1-9 ATS in September home games since 2006.

Opening Line: Jets -3.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: 85 degrees.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Dolphins 16, Jets 13
Dolphins +2.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jets 23, Dolphins 20

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at New Orleans Saints (0-2)
Line: Saints by 8.5. Total: 52.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -6.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Saints -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Saints -9.
Sunday, Sept. 23, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Saints.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you may know that I like to respond to my spam mails. This latest one comes from a woman named Mulyana:

Yes, I’m Steve Urkel. The biggest nerd in television history. If you’re not familiar with him, just watch this.

Sure enough, the person pretending to be this Mulyana chick e-mailed me back, as he’s a dumb spammer from somewhere in Asia and has no clue who Urkel is. Heres’ the next e-mail with a picture:

Dearest one,

welcome . Please don’t angry that this mail came to you when we have not meet before. this mail might come to you as a surprise and the temptation to ignore it as unserious could come into your mind but please consider it a divine wish and accept it with a deep sense of humility I am writing you because i saw your profile at website. when am seaching for partner. i like to have a good relationship with you, and i have a special reason why i decided to contact you. I decided to contact you because of the urgency of my situation here and after get your contact.

How was your day?.when mine was cool over here in Dakar Senegal My names is mulyana Dreamad, i came from Rwanda here Africa and presently i am residing in the church mission here in dakar as a result of war going on in my country. I am doing nursing in school which i have not finished yet.

My late father was the managing direct of slogas oil and chaiman of SDL company before the rebels attacked my house one early morning killing my mother and my father. It was only me that is alive now and i managed to make my way to country Senegal where i am leaving now. I would like to know more about you. Your likes and dislikes, your hobbies and what you are doing presently.

I am still single never married i am 24 years old am looking for partner lover who will love me for who i am let me explain for your understand about my late father inheritance. if you are not the person i am looking for, with due respect to you delete my email and don’t respond to me.

my father is from Rwanda my father was former chairman slogas oil before my Father death he deposited( �9.7 MILLION US DOLLAR )as my next of kin beneficiary I will be very happy to have an intimate relationship with you. And regarding investing the money in your country we will start the plans as soon as the money is in your hands. Let me explain to you in details for your understanding.

The reason I want you to help me get the money out from the africa banking firm is because I can not get it out myself. I am a refugee in this country, the local laws of this country does not allow individual or somebody with refugee status to handle business and financial transaction. The deposit was made by my late father and I am his next of kin/beneficiary but I can not withdraw or access to the deposit because of my refugee status.

*** Blah, blah, more about transferring money… ***

I will like you to understand also that during my discussions with the director of the banking firm this morning, I understood the capability of their banking firm to be able to TRANSFER the money to you in your country in safetly with out problems without any risk. This is why your complete details is very important Send your full name phone number house address . IF you wanted to talk to me now told Rev FATHER EVANS WILLY that you want to speak with mulyana room 27 Female hostel, he will send for me ok, here is the number +221 772594097 end_of_the_skype_highlighting

Your lovely Mulyana

Wow, she seems so sincere. I almost want to give her my real info… nah…

Here’s my reply:

By the way, that address that I listed is the actual Winslow residence from Family Matters. It’s currently preserved as a historical property. I really hope they get some sort of mail from “Mulyana.”

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Blame the lack of coaching and the poor defense, but one of the reasons the Saints are losing is because they can’t put drives together. Both offensive tackles have really struggled through two games, so that gives the Chiefs a big advantage on the perimeter with Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, both of whom excel at getting to the quarterback.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that the Saints won’t score. Drew Brees is awesome, and he has way too much firepower. The Chiefs will be able to take away a hobbled Marques Colston with Brandon Flowers, but he’ll still have Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles and Lance Moore at his disposal. Hali and Houston won’t be able to pressure him on every play, especially because he gets rid of the ball so quickly.

The Saints also may find some running room, as the Bills did this past Sunday with C.J. Spiller gashing the Chiefs for 123 rushing yards on only 15 carries. Dontari Poe has been a disappointment this far, so if he doesn’t improve his play, Pierre Thomas, who ran like a madman at Carolina, may have another solid outing.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: This seems like a mismatch on paper because it’s Brees versus Matt Cassel, but the Chiefs will be able to put up points against New Orleans’ atrocious defense.

The secondary is an abomination. It really is. The Saints surrender 12.5 yards per pass attempt. To illustrate how bad that is, the Buccaneers are No. 31 in the NFL, and they give up only 9.7. There are just so many things going wrong, from a lack of a pass rush, to injuries to several of the defensive backs, to Corey White’s atrocious play – and Cassel will be able to take advantage of that with his talented targets.

The Saints aren’t good against the run either, as both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart trampled them this past Sunday. Jamaal Charles was knocked out of the game last week with a knee injury, but he’s listed as probable, and Romeo Crennel even said that Charles could have reentered the game if it were close.

RECAP: I have no interest in betting this contest because Brees could go nuts in the Superdome, as he usually does. However, I’m picking the Chiefs because the Saints really look out of sorts. I also like the line value; this was -6.5 before Kansas City was blown out at Buffalo.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No change.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
A must-win for both teams.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

The public is giving the Saints one more chance.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 78% (48,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Chiefs are 24-15 ATS as a road underdog since 2007.

Saints are 22-11 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Drew Brees is 19-11 ATS after a loss with the Saints.

Drew Brees is 10-5 ATS off back-to-back losses.

Opening Line: Saints -10.

Opening Total: 53.

Weather: Dome.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Saints 34, Chiefs 31
Chiefs +8.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 52.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 27, Saints 24

Buffalo Bills (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-2)
Line: Bills by 3. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bills -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Bills -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Bills -3.
Sunday, Sept. 23, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Bills.

Video of the Week: My friend and former neighbor Schmidty showed this to me on the night of our fantasy draft (formerly known as Bo-Bo’s league). This has a ton of views, but because I had never seen it before, some of you might be in the same boat. This video features a very heterosexually challenged guy (not that there’s anything wrong with that) constantly saying “Would you look at that?”

BUFFALO OFFENSE: No Fred Jackson? Who cares? C.J. Spiller is rushing for more than 10 yards per carry in relief. While he’s unlikely to sustain that figure, Cleveland’s primary objective has to be slowing him down.

The Browns limited BenJarvus Green-Ellis to 75 rushing yards on 21 carries, but trying to stop Spiller is a completely different animal. LeSean McCoy, a comprable runner to Spiller, could have gained 200 rushing yards in the season opener if it weren’t for dumb Eagle penalties and Andy Reid’s inexplicable reluctance to run the ball. McCoy found plenty of room on the right side because Jabaal Sheard is a liability in ground support. Spiller should find plenty of room there, as right guard Kraig Urbik has enjoyed a monstrous 2012 campaign thus far.

Spiller’s ability to rip off big gains will once again make things easier for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who barely saw any pressure last week. The Browns don’t even have someone like Tamba Hali, so it’s going to be difficult for them to rattle Buffalo’s noodle-armed signal-caller. He should be able to find Steve Johnson, who will enjoy not having to deal with Joe Haden.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Brandon Weeden was the recipient of all the Sunday night SportsCenter hype, but Trent Richardson being at 100 percent was the primary catalyst for the geriatric quarterback’s success at Cincinnati. Like Cleveland, Buffalo’s primary objective will be to put the clamps on the opposing team’s runner.

The Bills actually have the manpower to do this. They have a stout front seven that completely shut down Kansas City’s solid ground attack. Trent Richardson is a much better player than Peyton Hillis and an apparently banged-up Jamaal Charles, however, so he may help Cleveland move the chains again.

It’ll be up to Weeden to protect the ball like he did last week, but I don’t have any faith in him. Buffalo’s pass rush harassed Matt Cassel last week, so I don’t see why it would be any different this Sunday. Mario Williams, who has barely contributed this year, has what should be an easy matchup against second-round rookie Mitchell Schwartz. If he can’t get a sack this week, he’ll never get one.

RECAP: I like the Browns a little bit because the Bills have tough matchups against the Patriots and 49ers after this game. I also don’t think Buffalo deserves to be a road favorite over anyone. I’m not going to bet the Browns, however, because I don’t trust Weeden.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No change.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

An obvious Breather Alert for the Bills. They have the Patriots and 49ers after this “crappy” Cleveland team.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

It’s not shocking that the public is fading the Browns.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 65% (34,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Bills are 19-14 ATS against losing teams since 2006.

Browns are 16-6 ATS after allowing 30 or more points since 2005.

Opening Line: Bills -3.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick: Bills 17, Browns 16
Browns +3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bills 24, Browns 14

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-1)
Line: Colts by 3. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Colts -2.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 2): Jaguars -1.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 2): Colts -3.
Sunday, Sept. 23, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

Remember when Tom Brady used to be the most clutch quarterback in the NFL? He had that epic drive against the Rams in the Super Bowl. He then engineered numerous other fourth-quarter comebacks, including one to defeat the Panthers two years later to claim his second Lombardi trophy. After he earned his third, there was a wide-spread belief that he would pass both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw and eventually earn five or more total rings.

Well, Brady’s been stuck on three. He’s no longer clutch; in fact, he often melts down in the fourth quarters of big matchups. He seems to really care about some games – especially those involving Tim Tebow – but then he’s so lackadaisical in others.

So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona.

For instance, the following conversation took place as Brady was over Bob Kraft’s house recently…

Bob Kraft: Tom, when I leave this house, I expect no shenanigans.

Tom Brady: Yes sir, Mr. Kraft.

Bob Kraft: This Arby’s convention is very important to me. I don’t want to be worried about my home when I’m trying Arby’s five new sandwiches.

Tom Brady: I won’t do anything to destroy your home, Mr. Kraft.

Bob Kraft’s 32-Year-Old Girlfriend: And you can’t take the car either, Tom!

Tom Brady: Oh, come on!

Bob Kraft: You heard Randy, Tom. Wait, Randy? Rebecca? What’s your name again, sweetie?

Bob Kraft’s 32-Year-Old Girlfriend: It’s Ricky! Remember, I told you when you bought me all of those diamonds?

Bob Kraft: Hmm, sorry, I was eating Arby’s at the time. How do you expect me to concentrate with a beef-and-cheddar in one hand and curly fries in the other?

Bob Kraft’s 32-Year-Old Girlfriend: It’s OK, I still love you.

Bob Kraft: What? Who cares? We’re running late to the Arby’s convention! Eric Matth… I mean Tom, you heard this Riley chick. No car!

Tom Brady: Life sucks!

*** Bob Kraft and his girlfriend leave. Brian Hoyer comes downstairs. ***

Tom Brady: Hey, Brian. If Bob Kraft and Ricky call, tell them I’m asleep. I’m taking the car.

Brian Hoyer: But Bob Kraft and Ricky told you not to!

Tom Brady: So what? I’m still going to do it.

Brian Hoyer: But you failed your driver’s test! Eric, I mean Tom, you’re going to get into big trouble!

Tom Brady: Not if you don’t tell Bob Kraft and Ricky!

*** Tom Brady gets into the car and immediately rear-ends into the house. ***

Brian Hoyer: Nice going, Tom Brady!

Tom Brady: It’s not my fault! How was I supposed to know that the R meant “reverse” and not “radio?”

Brian Hoyer: Everyone knows that. You’re an idiot. You’re going to get dumber and dumber each season. You’re even going to misspell your name on the SATs. Then, you’re going to graduate college the same year as me, thanks to the fact that your middle school and high school teacher will somehow be your college professor.

Tom Brady: Mr. Feeny? Mr. Feeny!

Brian Hoyer: For some reason, I don’t think you’re going to learn your lesson.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Blaine Gabbert has been the primary focus of Jacksonville’s futility, but the defense has been just as bad. They’re in the bottom 10 in terms of both the run and the pass, and they have just two sacks on the season. The issue has been injuries. Stud linebacker Daryl Smith and starting cornerbacks Derek Cox and Rashean Mathis have been out (Mathis has played, but he’s barely been on the field).

Smith will still be missing from the lineup, but Cox and Mathis are expected to return, which is huge because Andrew Luck just torched Minnesota’s secondary in the first half and the final two minutes this past week. Having the two cornerbacks cover Reggie Wayne and Donnie Avery will help prevent Luck from completely picking up where he left off.

Pressuring Luck will be key as well. Jacksonville has just one player (Jeremy Mincey) who can consistently get to the quarterback, but the Colts don’t have good blocking, to say the least. They will have Winston Justice back this week – Justice isn’t very good, but he’s a big upgrade over replacement Jeff Linkenbach – but center Samson Satele missed practice Wednesday. His absence would be huge.

Fortunately for Luck, he figures to have a strong ground attack by his side to help negate any sort of pressure. Donald Brown should find running room against a Jacksonville stop unit that has surrendered 4.7 YPC through two games, thanks to Daryl Smith’s injury and Tyson Alualu’s struggles.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I mentioned Gabbert earlier. He absolutely stinks. He had as many pass attempts (13) as passing yards at some point in the third quarter Sunday. The new coaching staff has done a good job of installing a quick attack, but dinking and dunking will not work against elite defenses like Houston’s.

The Colts do not have an elite defense – especially without Dwight Freeney, who missed practice Wednesday. There’s a chance left guard Eben Britton and right tackle Cameron Bradfield will be back in the lineup – they’re both questionable – which will be huge for Gabbert because it’ll allow him to dink and dunk as much as his heart desires.

Of course, the Jaguars will need to establish Maurice Jones-Drew as a threat on the ground to be successful. A matchup against the Colts seems easy, but Indianapolis has shockingly defended the run well, limiting the opposition to 3.96 YPC, good for 11th in the NFL. Jones-Drew hasn’t really looked like himself either, thanks to his failure of a holdout.

RECAP: Jacksonville was awful last week, which has created some line value for us because they were +2 per the Hilton advance spread. Still though, I’m not overly excited at the prospect of picking the Jaguars, but I do believe they’re the right side with several of their players returning from injury. This actually feels like a push to me.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No change.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Why would anyone bet on Blaine Gabbert?

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 79% (41,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: 16 of the last 20 meetings decided by 8 points or fewer (Colts 13-7).

Opening Line: Colts -3.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Retractable roof.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Colts 23, Jaguars 22
Jaguars +3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jaguars 22, Colts 17

Week 3 NFL Picks – Late Games
Falcons at Chargers, Eagles at Cardinals, Texans at Broncos, Steelers at Raiders, Patriots at Ravens, Packers at Seahawks

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 3 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)