NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2011): 4-8-1 (-$820)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2011): 3-10 (-$1,145)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2011): 7-7 (+$695)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2011): 9-7 (+$490)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2011): 6-7-1 (-$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2011): 7-9 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2011): 11-5 (+$1,000)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2011): 7-7-2 (-$220)

NFL Picks (2011): 107-106-10 (-$3,680)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 19, 7:20 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 15 NFL Picks – Early Games

Detroit Lions (8-5) at Oakland Raiders (7-6)
Line: Lions by 3. Total: 47.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Raiders -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Raiders -3.

Sunday, Dec. 18, 4:05 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Lions.

A friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Dec. 12, 2011 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerk is the Lexus December to Remember commercials.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: So much for the Raiders pulling off the greatest trade ever. Carson Palmer started hot, but has wilted away without his two speedy receivers. Palmer has posted solid numbers recently, but only because he’s piled up good stats in garbage time after beginning each of the past two games in a 34-0 hole.

The good news for Palmer is that there’s a good chance that Jacoby Ford and/or Denarius Moore will be back. If they’re truly healthy, they’ll wreak havoc on a Detroit secondary currently in shambles because of a plethora of injuries. If they’re not near 100 percent, however, it’ll be tough to imagine Palmer doing anything of note, especially with Ndamukong Suh back from his suspension.

Palmer would love to lean on Michael Bush regardless of Ford and Moore’s availability. This seems like a good plan because the Lions have surrendered at least 100 rushing yards in three of their previous four contests, but Bush hasn’t gained more than 3.6 YPC since that Thursday night contest against San Diego. Bush will start once again with Darren McFadden expected to be out.

DETROIT OFFENSE: McFadden won’t be back for the Raiders, but Kevin Smith figures to return for the Lions. This will obviously be a huge boost for a Detroit scoring unit that has been much more effective with him (or Jahvid Best) in the backfield.

The only question is whether Smith can finally stay on the field for the entire game. He’s 1-for-3 thus far this year, and the Raiders, who rank 31st versus the rush (5.1 YPC), will hope that he’ll be 1-for-4 following this contest.

If Smith isn’t too big of a factor in the second half, Oakland should be able to limit Matthew Stafford enough to give themselves a chance. The team is tied for fourth in sacks (37), and the struggles of Detroit’s offensive line are well-publicized. Of course, Smith’s ability to stay healthy will be huge because it would give Stafford a great safety valve.

RECAP: I like the Raiders for a number of reasons:

1. This spread confuses me. I consider the Lions and Raiders about equal, so I figured this line would be Oakland -2.5 or -3. I think we’re getting great line value here. Two weeks ago, everyone thought the Raiders were a really good team.

2. I think the Lions are overrated. They are 2-6 against the spread in their previous eight games. They keep committing stupid penalties and have way too many injuries.

3. I brought this up in the Tampa-Dallas preview: Teams that have lost two consecutive games by 14-plus points (Raiders) are a very solid 61-40 against the spread at home since 2002.

4. Another nice angle: If a team lost by more than 28 points and is now an underdog, they are 57-31 against the spread since 2002, excluding Week 17 games.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

The Raiders have burned bettors the past two weeks.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 77% (49,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Raiders are 4-13 ATS as a favorite since 2006. ???

Opening Line: Lions -1.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Raiders 24, Lions 21
Raiders +3 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Lions 28, Raiders 27
MISSING

New England Patriots (10-3) at Denver Broncos (8-5)
Line: Patriots by 7. Total: 47.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Patriots -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Patriots -3.

Sunday, Dec. 18, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com’s GameCenter and my thoughts on them.

Forum member SwAg Dynasty spent the entire Steelers-Browns game scouring the GameCenter board for dumb comments. Here are three:

1. “Tony Romo said Big Ben has a little WANK, and he is the worst he ever sacked ! ! !”

Why do I have a weird feeling that Tony Romo knows exactly how large Ben Roethlisberger’s wank is?

2. “i hope gawd (the fizzuck i cant right f word or religious guy) this is so stupid. i hate thr browns and alof uyo. ben rapperberger likes boys”

No wonder Ben Roethlisberger wasn’t convicted for raping that chick in Georgia. He raped a boy instead!

3. “omg. if won more peron gets injured im shootin down the ravens flighte with a bomb”

Ah, if only this guy could put as much effort into spelling as he does with bomb-making.

DENVER OFFENSE: “This is the type of game Tim Tebow can’t win.” I must have read or heard that sentence 20 times this week, and it’s only Tuesday. You know what type of games Tebow can’t win? The games he doesn’t play in.

New England’s secondary sucks. It’s worse than Minnesota’s. Tebow had a great performance against the Vikings, going 10-of-15 for 202 yards and two touchdowns, so I don’t see why he can’t do the same thing to the Patriots. What if he’s trailing, you ask? Tebow was behind in the Minnesota contest, if I remember correctly.

The Broncos will run all over the Patriots anyway. Roy Helu just trampled this pathetic stop unit, so look for Willis McGahee to do the same with New England’s defense respecting Tebow’s ability to scramble.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady was off last week, yet he still was able to muster 34 points, thanks to shoddy Washington tackling. The Broncos, led by Defensive Player of the Year candidate Von Miller, are even better in that category.

I’d be foolish to say that Brady will be completely stymied. He’ll score into the high 20s or 30s like he always does. It’ll be the same as always – the Patriots will come out bland and then transition into their no-huddle attack once they see what the opponent is doing.

Denver’s defensive weakness is against the run, but the Patriots won’t be able to take advantage of that. Bill Belichick is a great coach, but I feel like he made a huge mistake by not giving Stevan Ridley or Shane Vereen reps earlier in the year. Now he won’t be able to confidently use them in the playoffs over the plodding BenJarvus Green-Ellis or decrepit Kevin Faulk.

RECAP: So many people think this is an automatic cover for New England. How quickly they forget that the Patriots failed to cover the spread against Dan Orlovsky’s Colts and Rex Grossman’s Redskins.

Not only do I think Tebow will stay within six points; I believe he’ll come away with the straight-up victory. Bad things happen to New England when it plays Denver; Brady is a ridiculously bad 1-6 versus the Broncos in his career, with the sole victory being a 30-26 triumph on a Monday night back in 2003.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

People are piling off the Tim Tebow bandeagon because Tom Brady is the opponent.

Percentage of money on New England: 73% (80,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Tom Brady is 131-43 as a starter (101-68 ATS).

Tim Tebow is 6-1 ATS as an underdog or favorite of -3 or less.

Opening Line: Patriots -6.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Broncos 27, Patriots 24
Broncos +7 -105 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$420
Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 41, Broncos 23

New York Jets (8-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-8)
Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 44.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Eagles -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Eagles -3.
Sunday, Dec. 18, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Jets.

More Notes of SwAg Dynasty’s GameCenter comments:

1. “I’M A DOCTOR> JUST AN ANKLE NOT A KNEE> YOI ONLY NEED ONE OF THOSE TO LIVE>”

I can only imagine this guy in a hospital. A patient tears his Achillies’ tendon, only to be told by this guy, “JUST AN ANKLE> YOI ONLY NEED ONE OF THOSE TO LIVE> NEXT PATIENT>.”

2. “wat?? u pussee. gold on teh ball!!! ”

Jeez. Discussing gold balls really bring out the worst in people on GameCenter.

3. “browns d leaking like a girls pooper the day after anal with a blac kguy ”

This sounds like a racist comment, but I don’t know for sure because I never had anal with a black guy.

By the way, I think these GameCenter comments are affecting my readers. Facebook friend Jon Z. posted this Friday night:

I fear that soon we will all begin typing like this.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles scored 26 points on a really good Miami defense last week, but that was a bit of a farce. Almost all of their production came off turnovers and Tony Sparano stupidity, including his decision to go for a 55-yard field goal when his team had all the momentum.

QB Dog Killer is still a turnover machine. He threw only one pick at Miami, but could have easily tossed two more. This is the first time he’ll have to battle a Rex Ryan defense since he escaped from prison, so he could easily give the ball away numerous times.

Andy Reid absolutely has to run the ball as much as possible. LeSean McCoy is his best player, and the Jets can be beaten on the ground; they’re two weeks removed from surrendering 100 rushing yards to the Redskins. Reid did a good job of feeding the ball to McCoy 27 times last week. Let’s see if he does that again.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Mark Sanchez has played decently enough in recent weeks, but has seen only one fierce pass rush since battling the Broncos on a Thursday night. That occurred against the Redskins, when New York had major problems moving the football until Red Grossman capsized.

The Eagles just accumulated a whopping nine sacks against the Dolphins. They could come close to that total in this contest if Sanchez isn’t careful because his offensive line can really suck at times.

Fortunately for Sanchez, he can just hand the ball off to Shonn Greene. The Eagles continue to stink at stopping opposing ground attacks; they’ve surrendered 278 rushing yards in the past two weeks. Greene should have a huge outing, which will make things much easier for Sanchez.

RECAP: I discussed this in the NFL Power Rankings – despite being 5-8, the Eagles could actually be in control of their own destiny by Christmas Eve if four very possible things happen. On the flip side, they could also be eliminated from playoff contention by kickoff this Sunday.

That’s what makes this game so difficult to handicap. If the Eagles are wiped out, they won’t have anything to play for. I have both the Cowboys and Giants securing victories, so I guess that means I have to go against Philadelphia.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.
Slight lean on the Jets.

Percentage of money on New York: 63% (47,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Eagles are 14-25 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Jets 20, Eagles 17
Jets +3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Eagles 45, Jets 19

Cleveland Browns (4-9) at Arizona Cardinals (6-7)
Line: Cardinals by 6. Total: 37.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Cardinals -5.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Cardinals -6.
Sunday, Dec. 18, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter: I’ve been posting some comments from perverted users directed at hot chicks on GameCenter, most of which came from a creeper named Aaron3619.

Aaron3619 was at it again this week, sending messages to a multitude of chicks:

There’s so much going on this week that I feel like GameCenter has turned into an episode of 90210. In one plot line, PatriotsGirrl explains what “sarcasm” means to Aaron3619. In another, an antogonist named SuckOnMyFootball has surfaced to deter Aaron3619 from stalking women. Meanwhile, Emilysh returns from a hiatus. And then there are Kaylaaaa and StrikerSarah, who are new characters to the show.

The StrikerSarah plot line intrigues me:

What question is Aaron3619 going to ask? It couldn’t have to do with “naked pic or bikini pic,” could it?

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Kevin Kolb suffered a concussion during the first drive of the game last week. When John Skelton stepped in, I thought the precious unit I bet on Arizona was at risk; the 49ers intercepted Skelton a billion times when they saw him in Week 11 because he telegraphed his passes. That was not the case Sunday, as Skelton inexplicably improved. He was accurate on most of his throws and even showed good scrambling skills, which I didn’t even know that he possessed.

Skelton figures to get the start again because the concussion Kolb endured was his third. Cleveland’s defense is not as good as San Francisco’s, but that doesn’t mean that Skelton has an easy matchup. Thanks to Pro Bowl corner Joe Haden, the Browns are actually really good against the pass, maintaining a solid 7.0 YPA since their bye.

Cleveland’s defensive weakness is in the running game. It’s just two weeks removed from surrendering nearly 300 rushing yards to Ray Rice and Ricky Williams. Chris Wells could easily go off for 200 again.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: This could be a matchup of Skelton versus Seneca Wallace because Colt McCoy, as you may know, just had a concussion of his own. There’s a better chance McCoy will play because he doesn’t have Kevin Kolb’s history. And besides, McCoy was able to finish the game last week, so he has to be fine, right Pat Shurmur?

The Cardinals have improved defensively in the past month, as Patrick Peterson has stepped up after a slow start. It helps that they’ve been able to accumulate 10 sacks in the past two weeks, which is bad news for a Cleveland line that can’t block.

Making matters worse for the Browns, they won’t be able to run the ball. Arizona has limited four of its previous five opponents to 90 rushing yards or fewer, so Peyton Hillis will look slow and sluggish, as usual.

RECAP: I think everyone has finally caught on to how underrated the Cardinals have been since the beginning of November. The Browns have been under the radar in their own right, covering three of their previous four.

This spread is too high. Cleveland isn’t bad, and Skelton isn’t ready to be laying a touchdown against anyone just yet.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

The Cardinals are on fire, and people have finally noticed.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 85% (52,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Cardinals are 22-7 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Cardinals -6.5.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Cardinals 19, Browns 16
Browns +7 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 37.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cardinals 20, Browns 17

Baltimore Ravens (10-3) at San Diego Chargers (6-7)
Line: Ravens by 2.5. Total: 44.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Chargers -1.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Chargers -2.5.

Sunday, Dec. 18, 8:20 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

If you followed my 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you’re wondering which players to start, I’ve got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page (will be posted tonight) as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings, which will be updated by Wednesday afternoon each week.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Philip Rivers’ hibernation is over. He’s woken up from his long slumber and is now ready to make his annual December run into the playoffs. Too bad for him that Tim Tebow has emerged and ruined his chances of claiming the AFC West.

The Bastard of the Trident appears healthier, but it doesn’t hurt that he finally has all of his receivers back from injury. Speaking of which, Ray Lewis figures to return as well, so this is going to be a terrific, even matchup on this side of the ball.

Unlike the past two weeks though, San Diego won’t be able to run the football effectively. The Ravens, ranking second versus the rush, haven’t allowed more than 87 yards on the ground since Week 10. Rivers will have to do everything on his own, which could prove to be problematic if there are lots of long-distance situations, since Baltimore is first in the NFL in sacks (45).

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The matchup is much more lopsided on this side of the ball. San Diego has a woeful defense that stinks in every department.

Beginning on the ground, since Ray Rice is Baltimore’s top offensive player, the Chargers are 20th versus the rush. They yield 4.4 YPC, which includes 100-plus yards to three of their previous five opponents.

San Diego can’t get to the quarterback either (five sacks in the last five games), which hurts a beleaguered secondary ranked 24th against aerial attacks (7.6 YPA). Joe Flacco is inconsistent, but if he’s on Sunday night, he’ll really be on.

RECAP: I think this spread is way off. If Rivers is, in fact, healthy and awesome again, there is no way that Baltimore is 5.5 points better than San Diego (2.5 points plus three for homefield), despite the latter’s inability to stop anyone on defense.

Rivers is just way too good when 100 percent, especially in December, and I feel like the 2.5 points are a gift.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

I thought San Diego would be favored, but the public apparently doesn’t feel the same way.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 65% (53,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Ravens are 14-10 ATS vs. teams with losing records under John Harbaugh.

Philip Rivers is 21-11 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (6-2 ATS as an underdog).

Philip Rivers is 12-8 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Ravens -1.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Chargers 27, Ravens 24
Chargers +2.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chargers 34, Ravens 14

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) at San Francisco 49ers (10-3)
Line: 49ers by 3. Total: 37.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): 49ers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): 49ers -3.
Monday, Dec. 19, 8:30 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

It’s Monday Night Football, but we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Don Tollefson and Herm Edwards, and inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen. Here’s what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to San Francisco, home of the homosexuals! In tonight’s game, the Steelers take on the gay 49ers. Guys, what do you think? Will Ben Roethlisberger prevail, or will the 49ers use their usual gay tricks that they’ve been getting away with all year, like the time they beat my Eagles?

Emmitt: Mike, the city of San Diego may have the most homophobe in the entire world, or even the entire country maybe, but that do not mean the 49er homophobe himselves! The 49er like girl, or maybe he like boy, but we do not know for sure if he homophobe!

Reilly: Emmitt, you’re a smart guy, so it really surprises me to hear you saying something this outlandish. Of course the 49ers are gay. Remember Jeff Garcia? He raped boys in the shower like Jerry Sandusky!

Herm: You don’t know that! You don’t know what! You don’t know that! No one knows! How can anyone know!? It’s not possible! Impossible! Improbable! Garcia never said anything! Never said a word! Never said a peep! Terrell Owens said if it looks like a rat and smells like a rat, then it’s a rat! But who’s the rat!? Is Garcia the rat!? Is Owens the rat!? Is the rat a rat!? Or is the rat not a rat!? Or is the rat… uhh…

Reilly: You’re the one who’s gay, Herm!

Emmitt: Mike, you do not know for sure if Herm a homophobe. Do Herm like broadway TV show? Do Herm like the rainbow as his favorite color? Do Herm like the WNBA? We must know these factual before we know if Herm a homophobe.

Tollefson: Speaking of which, a WNBA player came to my hotel room last night. As a penalty, I took a s*** in her mouth. I would have felt bad, but a woman’s place is in the bedroom and kitchen; not on the basketball court. I was doing her a favor.

Emmitt: Guys, am I the only analysist who try his best to reinspect all women, children and homophobe? Women are gentle creature, very gentleness. Children like little people who do not know what a toilet use for, and homophobe are guy who like to have sexuals in the behind and watch Broadway TV show.

Millen: And here’s what Emmitt means by having sexuals in the behind. I usually find a big, strong running back. Something like 250-percent USDA Man or better. During the game, I ask him if he wants to come to my hotel room later. If he says yes, I ask him to bring a sandwich comprised of kielbasa, sausage, bologna, lettuce, provolone cheese and mustard. The mustard is the key because it makes the sandwich wet. If no mustard is available, then mayo will do. Or even ketchup or hot sauce. When the 250-percent USDA running back comes to my hotel room, I zip down my pants and have him shove the sandwich up my a…

Herm: Whoa! Too much info! Too much info! Too much info! Too much info! Too much info! Too much info! TMI! TMI! TMI! T… uhh… IM! MIT! MIT!

Reilly: Hey guys, looks like we found a butt buddy for Herm! We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: There is no line on this game as of Tuesday evening because of Ben Roethlisberger’s injury. Someone on TV – I can’t remember who it was – brought up a good point. No one in the world expected Roethlisberger to play in the second half of the Cleveland game. So, how the hell is Big Ben going to miss a contest nine days later with the same ankle malady? I think he’ll suit up.

If Roethlisberger does play though, he’ll be severely limited. He won’t be able to make his patented evasive maneuvers in the pocket to avoid pass-rushers, so the leaky offensive line is finally going to cost Pittsburgh against a San Francisco front seven that has 22 sacks in its previous seven contests.

Handing the ball off to Rashard Mendenhall won’t be much of an option. The 49ers haven’t surrendered 100 rushing yards or a touchdown on the ground to any opponent all year. In fact, their previous two foes mustered just 61 rushing yards on 40 carries. Crazy.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Pittsburgh’s defense is going to have to step up, regardless of whether Roethlisberger is out or limited. This may seem difficult in the wake of James Harrison’s suspension, but LaMarr Woodley is expected back from a hamstring injury. On the other side of the field, the emerging Jason Worilds notched two sacks last week.

The 49ers are going to have issues moving the chains as well. Pittsburgh’s stop unit has permitted just one 100-yard rushing performance since Week 6, so Frank Gore won’t be able to do much on the ground.

With Gore limited, Alex Smith’s life will be extremely difficult. He’ll be running for his life at times; his offensive line has had major problems recently, surrendering a ridiculous 18 sacks the past three weeks.

RECAP: I’ll have an official pick once a line is posted. I’m probably going to pick the Steelers. The unit total will depend on Roethlisberger’s availability.

LINE POSTED: The 49ers are -3 +105 right now. I’ll have a precise pick Monday when it’s known if Roethlisberger will play or not.

PICK POSTED: Ben Roethlisberger will start. He could be limited, but I still like getting him as a field-goal underdog. Two units.

The Psychology. Edge: TBA.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 57% (81,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

Steelers are 23-10 ATS on the road off a home division win the previous 33 instances.

Steelers are 5-2 ATS when Ben Roethlisbeger misses his first non-Week 17 game. ???

Ben Roethlisberger is 11-7 ATS as a road dog. ???

Ben Roethlisberger is 15-9 ATS as an underdog. ???

Opening Line: 49ers -3.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Steelers 19, 49ers 16
Steelers +3 -105 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$210
Under 37.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
49ers 20, Steelers 3

Week 15 NFL Picks – Early Games
Jaguars at Falcons, Cowboys at Buccaneers, Saints at Vikings, Seahawks at Bears, Bengals at Rams, Titans at Colts, Dolphins at Bills, Redskins at Giants, Packers at Chiefs, Panthers at Texans

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Saints -2, Bengals -1 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300

Moneyline Underdog: Broncos +300 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)