NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2011): 4-8-1 (-$820)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2011): 3-10 (-$1,145)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2011): 7-7 (+$695)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2011): 9-7 (+$490)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2011): 6-7-1 (-$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2011): 7-9 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2011): 11-5 (+$1,000)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2011): 7-7-2 (-$220)

NFL Picks (2011): 107-106-10 (-$3,680)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 19, 7:20 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 15 NFL Picks – Late Games

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9) at Atlanta Falcons (8-5)
Line: Falcons by 12. Total: 42.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Falcons -11.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Falcons -11.
Thursday, Dec. 15, 8:20 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Falcons.

Week 14 Recap: A pretty blegh week. I have a few things to complain about, as usual.

Titans +3.5 vs. Saints This really pisses me off for two reasons. First, my projected line for this game was Saints -5, so if Vegas only had listened to me, they wouldn’t have lost any money because of all the public action on New Orleans. And I wouldn’t have flushed $440 down the drain either.

Second, why didn’t Mike Munchak kick a field goal down 22-17 with three minutes left in the fourth quarter instead of going for it? He had all of his timeouts and was able to force Drew Brees into a punt anyway. A second field goal – and he was in position to kick a chip-shot as time expired – would have secured the victory.

This goes back to my proposal from last week that all head coaches should be forced to bet a couple thousand bucks on their own team. Had Munchak had Titans +3.5, he would have kicked the field goal and then the other one. Tennessee would be 8-5 right now.

Roger Goodell, I hope you’re reading this.

Patriots -7 at Redskins: Maybe the assistant coach who yelled at Tom Brady bet on New England. Perhaps that’s why he was so mad at Brady. A touchdown there would have ensured the cover.

Steelers -14 vs. Browns: Ugh. Fumbles are fluky, and the Steelers had two of them inside the red zone. Just one more field goal would have pushed. But of course, if Ben Roethlisberger hadn’t gotten injured, Pittsburgh may have beaten the 14 points easily.

This is yet another bogus non-cover by the Steelers. I think they’re unbettable right now. The Rooneys made their money off sportsbooking when it was legal, so I’m now convinced more than ever that they have a part in their shady point-spread shenanigans.

Panthers +3 vs. Falcons: If I had bet heavily on Carolina, I may have jumped off my roof. How the hell do they keep blowing these big leads and failing to cover? It’s almost like Cam Newton bets on the opposing teams. You’d think he had enough money from all the cash he made at Auburn. Zing!

Colts +17 at Ravens: I really feel for anyone who bet on Baltimore. The Ravens were up by 21 points the entire game, but the Colts scored a covering touchdown on the final play. I had Indianapolis for zero units so I didn’t really care, but this is the kind of crap that has been happening to me all year, so I can definitely sympathize.

Bills +7 at Chargers: I hate Philip Rivers. He’s cost me so much money this year. Even when they were losing every game at the beginning of the season, I still lost when I bet against him. Now, he’s suddenly healthy and awesome because it’s December? Why the hell does it take him and his team till December to not suck? It’s like hibernation. What does Rivers do all offseason, eat food every single hour of the day so he can sleep the entire time until December? It’s freaking ridiculous.

Anyway, I’ll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars somehow posted 41 points last week, but the Buccaneers weren’t exactly trying hard. They’ve quit on Raheem Morris weeks ago. Atlanta won’t be as lethargic.

The one thing the Jaguars do well offensively is run the ball. This presents a problem, as the Falcons rank fourth versus the rush (3.7). They surrendered a long touchdown to DeAngelo Williams last week, but shut everything down otherwise.

If Maurice Jones-Drew can’t run effectively, the Jaguars won’t score any points. Blaine Gabbert sucks, as he wilts under pressure in the pocket. The Falcons have nine sacks in their previous three games.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Atlanta, conversely, shouldn’t have any issues moving the football. The Jaguars used to be great versus the pass, but they’ve lost a billion players to injured reserve.

Jacksonville has just three sacks in the past three weeks, so Matt Ryan will have all the time in the world to find his receivers. It’ll just be an issue of whether Julio Jones drops a half-a-dozen balls or not.

Ryan won’t even have to do much, assuming Atlanta can establish Michael Turner. Since Week 8, the Jaguars have surrendered 4.5 YPC to the opposition, which would put them in the high 20s of that department.

RECAP: This has blowout written all over it. Forget the fact that Atlanta is vastly superior (especially when playing at home) compared to Jacksonville; the Jaguars are traveling on a short work week, which often proves to be disastrous.

Also, Jacksonville is playing its third game in 11 days. Teams have struggled in this situation historically.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

A decent lean on the favorite.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 65% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Jaguars are 7-12 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Jaguars are 13-26 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Matt Ryan is 18-9 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Falcons -11.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Falcons 30, Jaguars 10
Falcons -12 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 42.5 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Falcons 41, Jaguars 14
Falcons-Jaguars Recap

Dallas Cowboys (7-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9)
Line: Cowboys by 7. Total: 46.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Cowboys -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Cowboys -6.
Saturday, Dec. 17, 8:20 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

Vegas Recap: Darby O. sent me this e-mail Sunday morning:

Just curious. Don’t you find this line movement a little shady? Giants a public dog yet the line moved from plus 3 1/2 to 4 1/2. Seems like Vegas is begging one to take the Giants with this relatively dead number. I had the line at 3 myself. But this looks smelly.

It was smelly, but it apparently didn’t matter. Vegas has lost money most weeks, and that happened yet again with only four of the 10 highly bet teams covering (Browns, Redskins, Cardinals and Bears). The house lost with the Saints, Falcons, Packers, Chargers, Giants and Seahawks. Also, all of the heavy favorites won straight-up, so most teasers won.

I’ll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I’ll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

DALLAS OFFENSE: We all saw how terrible the Cowboy secondary was on Sunday night. Well, Tampa’s is worse. The Buccaneers allow an 8.1 YPA compared to Dallas’ 7.4, and they just let Blaine “Sunk Cost” Gabbert to look functional. If you’re a defensive player who permits Gabbert to play well, you might as well just quit.

And that’s precisely what the Buccaneers have done. They’ve taken after their lazy coach and stopped trying after putting forth all of their energy against the Packers in Week 11.

It’s possible that Tampa could get up for battling “America’s Team” on a semi-national stage, but it probably won’t matter. Without Gerald McCoy, the team just doesn’t have the defensive talent to contain Tony Romo and all of his weapons.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I mentioned the struggles of Dallas’ secondary earlier. Defensive coordinator Capt. Lou Albano is doing a terrible job, but if there’s one NFC starting quarterback (not named Sam Bradford) who may not be able to take advantage of the Cowboys’ ineptness, it’s Josh Freeman.

Freeman has been making terrible decisions all year. It doesn’t help that his offensive line sucks, so expect DeMarcus Ware to have a big game.

The Buccaneers could move the football if they don’t fall behind early, however. LeGarrette Blount has been a stud when given the opportunity, and the Cowboys have surrendered 4.8 YPC since Week 8.

RECAP: I really want to bet the Buccaneers for these four reasons:

1. The Cowboys are coming off a tough loss, and might take this game for granted because they have the Eagles and Giants looming ahead.

2. Since 2002, teams in non-divisional matchups coming off a spread loss of 25-plus (Buccaneers) are 54-24 against the spread the following week as long as they aren�t underdogs of seven-plus.

3. On a related note, teams that have lost two consecutive games by 14-plus points are a very solid 61-40 against the spread at home since 2002.

4. The Cowboys are really overrated, holding a 1-6 spread record in their previous seven games. Their sole line victory was against the Bills, who are also tanking.

Having said all of that, I can’t go above two units on the Buccaneers because I don’t know how much effort they’re planning to put forth in this contest.

UNIT CHANGE: I liked Tampa a bit earlier in the week, but I’m dropping this down to zero units in the wake of the breaking news that Raheem Morris was nearly fired. The Bucs mailed it in last week, and they might be inclined to do the same thing Saturday night because they don’t know the status of their head coach.

The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Cowboys may not take the Buccaneers seriously since they have divisional battles against the Eagles and Giants after this contest.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 81% (95,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Tony Romo is 7-0 ATS after the Cowboys have allowed 35+ points.

Tony Romo is 6-16 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (1-5 ATS as an underdog).

Tony Romo is 7-15 ATS as a favorite of -7 or more excluding Thanksgiving.

Buccaneers are 2-8 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Buccaneers are 5-16 ATS at home under Raheem Morris.

Opening Line: Cowboys -6.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Cowboys 23, Buccaneers 20
Buccaneers +7 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 31, Buccaneers 15

Washington Redskins (4-9) at New York Giants (7-6)
Line: Giants by 5.5. Total: 46.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Giants -9.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Giants -9.5.

Sunday, Dec. 18, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Giants.

Here are some random NFL notes I couldn’t post anywhere else:

1. I have to discuss that weird replay situation in Arizona. If you didn’t see what happened, Ken Whisenhunt tried to challenge just as the 49ers were orchestrating a fake punt. Whisenhunt would have lost the review, but wasn’t charged with a timeout or a used challenge because the Mexican ref announced that they replay equipment malfunctioned.

I swear, this is the third or fourth time that I’ve heard the Mexican ref say, “There is a problem with a replay” this year. I wish someone would do an investigation of this. I can only imagine what happens under the hood…

Mexican Ref: There is a problem with a replay.

Replay Assistant Upstairs: Alberto, push the play button.

Mexican Ref: I do not understand what is a play button?

Replay Assistant Upstairs: It’s the one with the sideways triangle.

Mexican Ref: I do not understand what is a triangle?

Replay Assistant Upstairs: It’s the shape with three sides.

Mexican Ref: I do not understand what is a sides?

Replay Assistant Upstairs: UGH!!!

Mexican Ref: Like I say, there is a problem with a replay.

2. Here’s a great article on why the Monday Night Football booth sucks.

Seriously, why does Ron Jaworski have to “sell” Tyler Palko? Isn’t the job of an analyst to tell us what he really thinks? Why couldn’t Jaws just say, “I think Tyler Palko’s terrible. The Chiefs really don’t stand a chance with him.”

Some may say that this would tune some viewers out, but I don’t think so. I’d argue that people would continue to watch just to see how awful Palko is.

3. On a less serious note, forum member NateHaselby sent this link to me. It’s the worst NFL mock draft ever. Some highlights:

ANDREW LUCK IS DEFFENTLY BEST PLAYER IN THE DRAFT AND THE DOLPHANS ARE STARTING MATT MORRE WITCH IS SAD HE WILL HELLP

MITE BE A BIT SUPRISING BUT JOPHEH ADDAI IS REALLY NOT THAT GOOD AND TRENT RICHARDSON IS REALLY GOOT COMPETE BACK

TARVIAS JASKON IS PRETTY BAD AND LANDRY JONES IS HAVING A GOOD SEASON AND THE SEAHAWKS HAVE SIDNEY RICE

Tarvias Jaskon? That’s even worse that Migelini’s “Tarvis” spelling.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins will be able to score on the Giants as long as “Bad Rex” doesn’t show up. Despite not having top target Fred Davis and left tackle Trent Williams last week, Grossman was able to torch New England’s atrocious secondary. He’ll be able to do the same to New York’s defensive backfield, which is responsible for multiple blown coverages each week.

As I said though, “Bad Rex” could rear his ugly head at any moment, of course, and it doesn’t help Washington’s cause that the Giants have a fierce pass rush that should be able to take advantage of Williams’ absence. I still can’t believe Jason Pierre-Paul isn’t on the Pro Bowl ballot, by the way.

The Redskins can counter New York’s pass rush, however, by going to Roy Helu early and often, just as they did versus New England. Helu has been great since taking over as the full-time starter, and we just saw what Felix Jones was able to do to New York’s No. 25 rush defense.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: When Eli Manning called himself elite during the offseason, everyone laughed at him. Well, he’s definitely backed it up. He has been amazing this year, especially in the clutch, and he’s only going to get better in these final three weeks with Mario Manningham back in the lineup.

Washington’s defense has improved too though, ever since it ushered Perry Riley into the starting lineup. Aside from a couple of poor tackling efforts on Rob Gronkowski, the Redskins did a commendable job on Tom Brady last week.

Like the Giants, Washington possesses a potent pass rush that will be able to abuse a weak offensive front. New York won’t be able to counter with the run, however, since Washington is a solid 10th against opposing ground attacks (4.1 YPC).

RECAP: I really like the Redskins to cover the touchdown. They’re underrated; Washington is 3-1 ATS in its previous four games.

New York often struggles as a big home favorite, owning a poor 4-9 spread record when laying six or more points as a host. The Giants are also 2-5 ATS in the same time frame as home divisional favorites.

Also keep in mind that the Giants could be looking ahead to their two matchups against the Jets and Cowboys. It’s unlikely that they’ll take a Grossman-led team completely seriously.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.

The Giants have two tough matchups coming up against the Jets and Cowboys after this “easy” contest against the Redskins.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

The public is all over the Giants.

Percentage of money on New York: 83% (76,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Giants have won 9 of the last 11 meetings.

Giants are 17-25 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more the previous 42 instances.

Opening Line: Giants -7.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Giants 27, Redskins 24
Redskins +5.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Redskins 23, Giants 10

Green Bay Packers (13-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-8)
Line: Packers by 11. Total: 45.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Packers -11.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Packers -13.
Sunday, Dec. 18, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Packers.

More random NFL notes:

1. If you didn’t see it, check out my response to someone posting about my Buccaneers Super Bowl prediction in my NFL Power Rankings.

There are many issues with Tampa. The Gerald McCoy injury is the obvious one. Raheem Morris’ lethargy is another. A third issue is that Josh Freeman is easily influenced. Freeman recently said that he considers Albert Haynesworth a mentor. I can only imagine how these conversations go down…

Josh Freeman: Mr. Haynesworth, you are like a mentor to me!

Albert Haynesworth: NOM NOM NOM LET’S GO EAT PANCAKE!

Josh Freeman: But Mr. Haynesworth, won’t eating pancakes make us fat?

Albert Haynesworth: NOM NOM NOM EAT PANCAKE GOOD TO GET FOOTBALL POWER NOM NOM NOM!!!

2. My friend Ray told me Friday that his dad is pissed off at me because he drafted Roddy White over Calvin Johnson in his PPR fantasy league. Well, in their previous four games, White has 28 catches, 402 yards and three touchdowns, while Megatron is 18-236-1. White has 86 PPR fantasy points, which trumps Johnson’s 47.

The point of all this? Fantasy is usually unpredictable. Case in point: Mark Sanchez, Jake Locker, Joe Webb, T.J. Yates and John Skelton were five of the top 10 scoring fantasy quarterbacks in Week 14. If you knew this prior to Sunday’s games, you’d start Skelton and Yates over Aaron Rodgers, but if you actually did so, you probably would have been locked up in a mental institution.

3. I’m so glad that Facebook friend Jon Z. introduced me to Emmitt Smith’s verified Twitter account (@emmittsmith22). His tweets are just as grammatically inept as his ESPN analysis. Here are some of them:

1. “I just forward your contact info to him.”

We’re only missing two letters here, so the bigger surprise is that Emmitt knows how to forward contact info.

2. “What’s up Cutty how the Golf game.”

If he’s slicing balls into the woods, then just as poor as the Grammar game.

3. “ROH day for 3 greats Charles Haley, Drew 88, Larry Allen congratulation.”

I’m willing to accept this grammatical gaffe if the store by Emmitt’s house sells balloons that say “Congratulation!” instead of “Congratulations!”

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: So much for Green Bay’s crappy defense. The Packers pretty much shut out the Raiders in meaningful action, forcing them into a few turnovers in the process. Green Bay allows yardage to some teams, but it often comes up with clutch take-aways.

Well, the Packers may not even surrender any yardage in this contest considering the opponent. The Chiefs have absolutely no offense. All of their quarterbacks stink, and aside from Dwayne Bowe, they possess no play-makers. They’ll be lucky to get into double digits.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: This is the more interesting matchup. Aaron Rodgers is arguably playing better right now than any quarterback has in NFL history, but he just lost Greg Jennings to a 3-week ankle injury.

I still like Rodgers’ chances though, even against Kansas City’s elite cornerbacks. Jordy Nelson can function as a legitimate No. 1 wideout, while Jermichael Finley, James Jones, Donald Driver and Randall Cobb aren’t exactly chopped liver. Rodgers puts the ball precisely where he needs to, which pretty much nullifies great corner play since there’s no defense for a perfect pass.

I’m sure the Packers would love to establish Ryan Grant again to avoid further injury to the receiving corps. Kansas City has surrendered 4.5 YPC since its Week 6 bye, so the ground attack will function as a good complement in this contest.

RECAP: I liked Green Bay a bit prior to the Todd Haley firing. Now, I like them even more. Since 1996, teams are 5-13 against the spread the week after their head coach is fired; 0-6 ATS as home dogs. I just don’t see how Kansas City will be able to keep up with the Packers on the scoreboard.

Oh, and in case you think this line is too high, road favorites of -13.5 or more are a decent 16-11 against the spread since 1989.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Take a guess on whom the public is betting on.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 86% (75,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Packers are 34-17 ATS on the road under Mike McCarthy.

Aaron Rodgers is 32-16 ATS since 2009.

Chiefs are 14-24 ATS at home since 2007.

Opening Line: Packers -13.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Packers 38, Chiefs 3
Packers -11 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 19, Packers 14

New Orleans Saints (10-3) at Minnesota Vikings (2-11)
Line: Saints by 7. Total: 53.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Saints -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Saints -6.
Sunday, Dec. 18, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Saints.

Some random college football notes I couldn’t post anywhere else:

1. I wrote an article called BoyCott the Bowls back in 2007. I completely forgot about it until the owner of Kansas Prep Football asked me if he could use my Boycott the Bowls logo.

One of the things I learned in journalism class at Penn State was that journalists shouldn’t initiate a call to action. Well, f*** that. If you’re reading this, please try your best to avoid watching any bowl game. The only way the NCAA and BCS a**holes stop being douche bags about not having a playoff is if we stop watching these meaningless games.

#BoycottTheBowls.

2. It doesn’t help that some of the coaches are major jerks. Take this quote I found on Twitter recently:

“Anyone who doesn’t win their conference has no business playing in the national championship game” – Nick Saban (2003)

This quote was soon deleted, so one of two things happened: Either this person realized the quote was inaccurate, or Saban threatened to “silence” this Twitter user.

I’m willing to bet on the latter, only because Saban made sure he voted Stanford over Oklahoma State in his poll despite the fact that he stated that losing in overtime should be a factor. Oklahoma State lost in double overtime; Stanford was blown out in its only defeat.

The fact that Saban gets a vote in this abomination of a process just proves how bad it is.

#BoycottTheBowls.

3. As for an actual game, I wanted to touch on something that happened about a month ago when Michigan battled Michigan State. A key event that occurred in this game was a Michigan State defensive player punched a Michigan offensive player. There was a personal-foul penalty, but the former wasn’t ejected for some strange reason.

E-mailer Jack J. sent this over hours later:

I thought it was funny that it was a black guy hitting a white guy. Hey, if a black guy hits a white guy, it’s a 15-yard penalty. But what if a white player punched a black player? I think the white player would be banned from the NCAA, and then Barack Obama would give a 5-hour speech about it. Oh, and ESPN headquarters would explode almost instantly.

Jack J. is right. Us fat, white, American males have been oppressed for years. I don’t know how much longer I can deal with this.

#BoycottTheBowls.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Drew Brees has a dream matchup. Thanks to a plethora of injuries and suspensions, Minnesota’s secondary is in shambles. The last time Brees had a matchup like this, well, he struggled in a blowout loss at St. Louis.

The one hope the Vikings have of stopping Brees is by generating pressure on him without blitzing. This is precisely what the Rams were able to do, and Minnesota has the personnel to accomplish this as well. Jared Allen, on pace to break Michael Strahan’s regular-season sack record, should be able to bring down Brees once or twice.

Still though, the Ram game was a bit fluky, so I think Brees will be solid at the very worst, especially now that Jimmy Graham has been cleared to play coming off a back injury he suffered at Tennessee.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: After last week’s near-comeback, I want to see Joe Webb again. Unfortunately, that’s not going to happen; Leslie Frazier named Christian Ponder the starter for this contest.

Ponder looked really promising in his first few starts, but he’s inexplicably transformed into a turnover machine. He’s guilty of five interceptions and a pair of lost fumbles in his previous two games. The Saints have a high number of take-aways in the past several weeks, so this does not bode well for Ponder.

One major thing working in Ponder’s favor, however, is the presumed return of Adrian Peterson. This is terrible news for the Saints, who are 30th versus the rush (4.98 YPC). If Peterson can pile up chunks of yardage, the Vikings should be able to keep the ball away enough from Brees to keep this contest close. Assuming Ponder doesn’t have a billion turnovers again, that is.

RECAP: I think this spread is right on the money, so this was a coin flip for me. The tie-breaker was this: Road favorites following a road win as a favorite are a decent 58-43 against the spread since 1989.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 87% (81,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Drew Brees is 28-18 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Opening Line: Saints -7.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: Dome.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Saints 29, Vikings 16
Saints -7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 53.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 42, Vikings 20

Seattle Seahawks (6-7) at Chicago Bears (7-6)
Line: Bears by 3.5. Total: 35.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Bears -3.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Bears -3.5.
Sunday, Dec. 18, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Bears.

If you’ve been following this site, you know that I make a habit of responding to my spam mails. Last week, I posted an e-mail from a Richard Held, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).”

Here was my response, with a reference from my Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexual Heritage Month entry:

Richard Held,

Hello, my name is Matthew Millen Kim. I won your Facebook contest. What a great month and a half this has been. First, I got to celebrate Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexual Heritage Month, and now I won 750,000.00 GBP.

I’m going to assume GBP stands for Green Bay Packers. I would love 750,000.00 Green Bay Packers. Heck, one makes me horny.

1. FULL NAMES: _Matthew Millen Kim____ 2.ADDRESS:__2000 Brush St_____ 3.CITY:__Detroit___
4. STATE: __MI____ 5.POSTCODE___48226____ 6.COUNTRY___USA___
7. SEX: __B____ 8.AGE:____53____ 9.OCCUPATION:__Kielbasa Stuffer____
10. TELEPHONE/MOBILE NUMBERS: __(313) 262-2000___ 11.FAX:___(313) 262-2000_____

Before you enter in my information, is it OK if I only use Facebook for lewd activities like downloading pictures of 100-percent USDA Men and Photoshopping kielbasas in their rear end?

Thanks,

Matthew Millen Kim

In case you were wondering, the address and phone number I gave to them belongs to Ford Field. I wish I could see the look on the Ford Field employees when someone calls up asking for a “Matthew Millen Kim.”

At any rate, I received two responses. One was unbelievably hilarious. I need to show you a screenshot because you wouldn’t believe me otherwise:

The other e-mail asked me to fill out a form. I sent it back to them:

OK, so they wouldn’t be stupid enough to accept that form, right?

Wrong!

I received the following e-mail a day later:

Dear Online Customer; Matthew Millen Kim,

This is to confirm the receipt of your email in this bank. The details of your mail along with the personal data you sent was noted, understood and have been recorded. You are required to pay the sum of �220.00 Pounds Sterling to this bank for our administrative charge. As soon as you make this payment, endeavor to send to us your complete bank account details of the nominated account where you want us to transfer your winning funds to.

You are to follow the below instruction, to make the payment of �220.00 Pounds Sterling;

You are to contact the nearest Western Union Money Transfer Office in your location and make payment to our Chief Account Officer (Mrs. Lindsay Ryan) with the payment details below:

AMOUNT: �220.00 Pounds Sterling equivalent to $355.00 US Dollar.
NAME: Mrs. Lindsay Ryan
ADDRESS: 209, Lower Addiscombe Rd, Croydon, Surrey. CRO 6RB, United Kingdom.

Two weeks ago, I asked if anyone reading this lived in or near Croydon to send a picture of the building to me. Many people e-mailed me a Google Maps image and told me it was a bank. E-mailer John L. sent a picture and a detailed description of what happened when he walked into the building and announced himself as Matthew Millen Kim. I’ll post that later.

At any rate, I didn’t check my e-mail for a few days, so they sent me another e-mail, asking the status of my award claims. They asked if I was “experiencing too much delay from the paying bank.” They then told me to contact someone named Loon Bruce, who sounds like a character from the Harry Potter books.

I sent over an e-mail to Loon Bruce:

Hello, my name is Matthew Millen Kim, and I won your Facebook prize.

I am having too much delay from the paying bank. I had the funds recently, but I landed on Park Place with three houses and had to pay the wheelbarrow $1,100.

You do not know how much I hate the wheelbarrow right now. I was planning to pay you guys and spend the excess monies on kielbasa, so I could use it when I invite some football players to my hotel room. Now, I only have $5 remaining with a Get Out of Jail Free card.

How much longer can I have to pay your fee? I am hoping to pass Go soon.

Thank you,

Matthew Millen Kim

As promised, here’s John L’s picture:

And here’s John L’s description of what transpired when he walked in:

I went into the bank with my girlfriend, (the photographer) and just to explain about the English banks, we have automated machines in them, so there is always a host there.

When we went in, I thought I would try my luck by coming up with an elaborate story so I could get a picture of Matthew Millen Kim at a machine or a counter. Well, the host had none of it and politely told us in no uncertain terms to leave and we couldn’t take any pictures, hence taking one from across the street.

In pleading to take a picture in the bank, the story I came up with was that Matthew Millen Kim was an eccentric recluse and we were taking pictures of him all over London for a charity fundraiser. I thought, the more obscure, the more likely they would believe it.

The host said she could not allow any pictures at all. At this point I asked her if she had any kielbasa. She had no idea what I was talking about and my girlfriend said, “stop right there” (she’s heard me talk about some of the stories off of your site). The host wanted to know what kielbasa was and I told her that is what Matthew Millen Kim was famous for, but also the reason he became a recluse!

We left at that point and the host harassed us outside the bank, so we crossed the road and got you the picture I sent yesterday.

Very strange that the people in this building wouldn’t know of Matthew Millen Kim when he’s due such a huge sum of money!

Some e-mailers have suggested that I should pay the “$355.00 US Dollar” to see what happens. I think I’m going to send over $355 in Monopoly money to get their reaction. Maybe I can print out fake Millen money. Anyone want to guess what’s on the $100 bill?

I’m going to do that soon. In the meantime, John L. printed out Matthew Millen Kim’s application and went back to the bank. Here’s what happened…

As you can probably imagine, the Natwest bank were unwilling to accept 220 Green Bay Packers. (I looked to see if I had any trading cards, but made do with a picture of the 2005 team).

I printed out Matthew Millen Kim’s application and the bank told me that it was clearly a hoax and to report it to the police.

I asked what I should do with the Green Bay Packers. I was told they can’t accept them, that would be either real people or pictures of them.

I thought of a way around it though, as like I said in my previous email, there are a lot of automated machines and I took the opportunity to try and deposit the 2005 Green Bay Packers.

There wasn’t a sort code or account number on the application, so I just used 03-12-58 as the sort code, (Matthew Millen Kim’s birthday) and 54352272 as the account number, (54352272 spells kielbasa on the phone).

Not sure about what would happen next, the slot opened and said, “please make your deposit.” I quickly stuffed the 2005 Green Bay Packers into the slot and ran away like a naughty child.

I think you should use this image below as evidence that Matthew Millen Kim has now deposited his Green Bay Packers, (I’m sure Judge Judy would accept this as evidence!)

I must admit, I would like to see the look on the faces of the cashiers when the machine is emptied in the morning!

Please try e-mailing Loon Bruce with details of the deposit and ask him to go to the Natwest Bank in Croydon to collect his Green Bay Packers.

OK, so I said I’d mail out the payment to them, but I’ve been lazy about it. They didn’t like that, so they sent me a warning e-mail:

Dr. Chris Bridley,
Accounts Department,
Natwest Bank Plc,
209, Lower Addiscombe Rd, Croydon,Surrey.
CRO 6RB, United Kingdom.
Tel: +44-703-593-1088
Fax: +44 207 060 0212
Email: [email protected]
Date: 8th December, 2011.

Dear Online Customer; Matthew Millen Kim,

I have been directed by the Board Of Executives of this bank to inform you that you only have 72 hours to claim your prize, you promised to make payment for our Administrative charge first thing on Monday and still yet we hav’nt gotten any payment from you. You are to keep this bank updated as regards the claims.

Dr. Chris Bridley? I thought I had to send my payment to a Lindsey Ryan? It almost makes me think they’re running a shady operation.

I replied:

Matthew Millen Kim here.

I am sorry for the delay. I had a week-long getaway where I gathered with other USDA 100-percent Men, such as myself, and well, I don’t need to tell you what happened during our retreat. Ten men, one kielbasa… needless to say, we had a great time!

I am mailing out the payment immediately!

I actually did mail it out. Of course, I didn’t send them real money. Here’s what the bills looked like:

Unfortunately, my printer ran out of ink, so the two $100 Kielbasa bills came out discolored. Still, I’d pay to see the look on Dr. Chris Bridley’s face when he opens my letter.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears can’t score, but the good news is that Caleb Hanie didn’t throw three interceptions at Denver. Hanie had a habit of doing so entering the contest, but walked away from the three-point loss without committing a single turnover.

The bad news is that the Bears couldn’t really do anything on offense. Hanie went 12-of-19 for 115 yards and was largely ineffective against a secondary that lost Brian Dawkins and Andre Goodman to injury. Seattle’s defensive backfield has really improved in recent weeks, so I don’t expect Hanie to have much success this Sunday.

Marion Barber will have to function as the workhorse again. The Seahawks ran fifth versus the rush overall (3.8 YPC), but they’ve had issues stopping opposing ground attacks in the past three weeks, giving up 4.5 YPC in those contests.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks will also lean on their running back, Marshawn “Marcel” “Beast Mode” “Commander of the Skittle Warriors” “Green Skittle” “Runny Guy” Lynch, who has been running like a freaking maniac lately. It’s amazing to see him break so many tackles. I only hope he keeps playing this way after he signs his lucrative contract.

Unlike Monday night, however, Lynch doesn’t have a good matchup. Chicago has completely shut down the run since its bye week. Willis McGahee couldn’t do anything against this front Sunday afternoon.

If Lynch can’t move the chains, Tarvaris “Tarvis” “TARVIAS JASKON” Jackson will struggle. Jackson made some nice throws against the Rams on Monday night, but he also got away with a couple of mistakes that a weak St. Louis stop unit couldn’t take advantage of. You better believe Brian Urlacher will be prepared to capitalize.

RECAP: Aside from the fact that Cannon Ball Caleb Hanie shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal over anyone, there are two reasons why I like the Seahawks.

First, as listed below, teams coming off Monday night wins of 17-plus are 43-23 ATS since 1999. And second, teams that lose on the road in overtime (Bears) suck against the spread the following week (28-60 ATS since 1994) as long as they’re not road dogs.

The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.

The Seahawks will be out for revenge after losing to Chicago in the playoffs.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

No one wants to bet on Caleb Hanie.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 68% (55,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Monday Magic: Teams coming off MNF wins of 17+ are 43-23 ATS since 1999.

Seahawks are 16-32 ATS on the road since 2006.

Bears are 9-4 ATS off back-to-back losses since 2005.

Opening Line: Bears -4.

Opening Total: 35.5.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Bears 13, Seahawks 12
Seahawks +3.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 35 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 38, Bears 14

Miami Dolphins (4-9) at Buffalo Bills (5-8)
Line: Bills by 1. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Dolphins -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Dolphins -1.
Sunday, Dec. 18, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

Video of the Week: I went all serious on you in my previous Video of the Week when I bashed ESPN for being hypocrites after failing to go to the police when they knew that Bernie Fine was molesting kids. Well, it’s time for some comic relief. If you haven’t seen it, here is Tim Tebow’s Music Video (thanks to my friend Anish for sending it over).

MIAMI OFFENSE: The two injuries are the big story here. Matt Moore and Jake Long went out with a concussion and a lower back malady, respectively, in Sunday’s loss against the Eagles. I don’t need to tell you that their availability would have a major impact on this contest.

Moore reportedly is expected to play. Long, on the other hand, is more of an enigma right now. I couldn’t find any news on him, which might be good. Even if he can’t suit up, it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. Miami’s offensive line is awful without him, but it’s not like the Bills can get to the quarterback. They pathetically have just five sacks in the past six weeks.

Buffalo also can’t stop the run, thanks to a plethora of injuries. Like Ryan Mathews last week, Reggie Bush will pick up big chunks of yardage against one of the NFL’s weakest defenses.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: What in the world has happened to Ryan Fitzpatrick? After playing like a Pro Bowler through eight weeks, he has been responsible for 10 turnovers compared to just six touchdowns. I know there have been injuries to Fred Jackson and key offensive linemen, but Fitzpatrick shouldn’t have regressed that much.

Fitzpatrick could barely complete a pass against San Diego, and that should once again be the case. The Harvard alumnus was actually 20-of-39 for 209 yards and two picks against this very Miami defense in Week 11. I expect similar results.

The sad part is, the Bills had Fred Jackson available for that first Miami contest. C.J. Spiller has some talent, but he’s obviously a downgrade. He won’t muster much against the Dolphins’ third-ranked ground defense (3.5 YPC).

RECAP: I mentioned earlier that teams often fare poorly following a coaching fire. An exception is when a team is actually pretty good. We saw it with the Vikings and Cowboys last year – they were able to rebound because they had talent. The Dolphins are in the same boat, as far as I’m concerned. They’re far superior to Buffalo.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 59% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

History: Dolphins have won 5 of the last 7 meetings.

Bills are 19-13 ATS against losing teams since 2006.

Bills are 17-12 ATS at home after Oct. 1 when favored by fewer than 6 points since 2002.

Opening Line: Dolphins -1.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Dolphins 23, Bills 10
Dolphins +1 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Dolphins 30, Bills 23

Carolina Panthers (4-9) at Houston Texans (10-3)
Line: Texans by 6. Total: 45.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Texans -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Texans -7.
Sunday, Dec. 18, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Texans.

Bo-Bo has retired, so as promised, here’s the NFL.com Fantasy Draft – Round 4:

Rich Eisen: Welcome back to Round 4. When we left off, Kara Henderson completely pwned Brian Billick. It’s now my turn, and I will pick Dez Bryant. Dennis, you’re on the clock.

Dennis Green: It’s about f***ing time, Rich. You have no f***ing idea how long it’s been since I last picked.

Rich Eisen: I have an idea, Dennis. I picked right before you.

Dennis Green: That’s true. OK. I’ll take…

Jim Mora Jr: Hey guys, is it time for a pizza break yet?

Dennis Green: No! It’s my pick! I’ll take…

Jim Mora Jr: Come on, dude. It’s time for a pizza break.

Dennis Green: F*** you, Jim. You wasted six f***ing hours making a pick because a**hole Rich doesn’t have a clock. Some commissioner he is. I want to make my f***ing pick. I’ll take…

Rich Eisen: You know what? I am hungry, so let’s take a pizza break right now.

Dennis Green: What the f***, Rich!? You can’t be f***ing serious! I want to pick my f***ing player, and I want to pick my f***ing player now!

Rich Eisen: Well, too bad. I’m the commissioner, and I say it’s time for a pizza break.

Dennis Green: F*** you and your f***ing rules, and f*** this league and f*** Jim Mora and f*** his f***ing pizza break. What the f***!?

*** Twenty minutes later… ***

Rich Eisen: Great pizza break, guys. I’m stuffed.

Jim Mora Jr: Hey guys, is it time for an ice cream break yet?

Dennis Green: Don’t you f***ing dare, Rich! I’ll strangle you in your f***ing sleep if I don’t get to pick my f***ing player because of a God damn ice cream break.

Rich Eisen: No ice cream break. Maybe later.

Jim Mora Jr: Come on, dude.

Rich Eisen: I said no! Matt Millen, you’re on the clock.

Dennis Green: I’m up, Rich.

Rich Eisen: Nope. Millen’s up. Your time expired.

Dennis Green: Expired? We don’t have a f***ing clock!

Rich Eisen: Now we do. You wanted one remember? Well, it’s set at 20 minutes, and you missed your window.

Dennis Green: But our f***ing pizza break was the last 20 minutes! I couldn’t make my f***ing pick during the pizza break!

Rich Eisen: You couldn’t? Who said that? There are no rules about not being able to make a pick during the pizza break. Millen, you’re up.

Dennis Green: OH MY F***ING GOD I’M GOING TO F***ING KILL EVERY SINGLE PERSON IN THIS F***ING ROOM AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Rich Eisen: You know what? I’m suddenly hungry for ice cream. Let’s take a break for that. Stay tuned next week for the second half of Round 4.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: As I wrote in the recaps page, who needs Matt Schaub when you have T.J. Yates? Yates was downright awesome in his second start against a tough Cincinnati defense; he piled up 300 yards and had a 60-yard touchdown dropped by Jacoby Jones.

Although Andre Johnson is not expected back – Gary Kubiak said he plans on being smart with his No. 1 receiver, and there’s no point in playing him this week – Yates has to be thrilled about this matchup. Cincinnati’s secondary ranks 10th, so Yates gets to go from that to Carolina’s dead-last aerial defense, which permits an embarrassing 8.4 yards per attempt.

Yates may not have to attempt a single pass anyway based on how porous the Panthers have been against the run. They’re 24th in that department, surrendering 4.7 YPC. Arian Foster and Ben Tate should combine for at least 200 rushing yards.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s hard to trust Cam Newton right now. He’s regressed following a scorching start. Excluding a victory over the Colts because they suck, Newton hasn’t completed more than 57.9 percent of his passes in any contest. His 4:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio is even worse.

Newton has been way too sloppy with the football, and he might just get worse against Houston’s elite defense. The Texans will be able to erase Steve Smith, forcing Newton to target Brandon LaFell and Legedu Naanee more often. Houston’s tremendous pass rush will also put lots of pressure on Newton, especially if Jordan Gross is out again.

Excluding Newton’s scrambles, the Panthers haven’t been able to run the ball much this year. Newton will accumulate some first downs on the ground, but Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams will be stymied by the Texans, who haven’t permitted more than 100 rushing yards to an opponent since Week 6.

RECAP: I wouldn’t bet the Texans because I’m not a fan of laying 6.5 points with a rookie quarterback making his third career start, but I believe they’re the right side. Newton is going to learn a tough lesson against this elite Houston defense.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
Slight lean on the host.

Percentage of money on Houston: 63% (52,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Texans -6.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Texans 27, Panthers 17
Texans -6 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Panthers 28, Texans 13

Tennessee Titans (7-6) at Indianapolis Colts (0-13)
Line: Titans by 6.5. Total: 41.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Titans -6.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Titans -6.5.
Sunday, Dec. 18, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Titans.

As a reminder, get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2011 NFL Survivor Pool. There are still only 3 entries remaining from the 2,749 that started. All three people survived with the Seahawks (2) and Jets.

Also, you can create your own 2012 NFL Mock Draft. If it’s good and the write-ups make factual/logical sense, it can be featured in the 2012 NFL Mock Draft Database.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: I’m excited to watch this game because Jake Locker is expected to start for the Titans. Locker isn’t the polished passer Matt Hasselbeck is yet, but he does a great job of moving around in the pocket and making things happen. He also has a big arm, which is obviously bad news for the Colts, who are miserable against the pass (30th; 8.1 YPA).

Locker is making his first start though, so the Titans will want to run the ball with Chris Johnson as much as possible. Johnson has a great matchup against Indianapolis’ much-maligned ground defense, but that doesn’t necessarily matter. CJ20 couldn’t do anything Sunday against the Saints, who ranked No. 31 versus the run heading into the weekend.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Titans did a good job of limiting Drew Brees on paper last week, but the Saints slowed themselves down with penalties. So, does that mean the Colts will be able to put up points? Umm… no.

Tennessee is pretty decent versus the pass (6th) despite the fact that they lost Marques Colston down the seam for long touchdowns twice. That won’t be much of an issue against the Colts even though Dan Orlovsky is a bit of an upgrade over Curtis Painter.

Indianapolis might be able to run the ball a bit. The Titans aren’t very strong versus the rush; they permitted 108 rushing yards to the Saints and rank 18th in that department.

RECAP: The Titans put everything into their matchup against the Saints, but came up a bit short. I don’t think they’ll be able to muster enough energy against Indianapolis.

Having said that, there’s no way in hell I’m betting on the Colts. They just suck too much.

The Psychology. Edge: Colts.

The Titans threw the kitchen sink against the Saints, but came up a bit short. They’ll have no energy for a winless team.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

No one wants to bet on Indianapolis?

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 82% (56,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Colts have won 13 of the last 17 meetings (Titans 8-3 ATS since 2006).

Opening Line: Giants -6.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Dome.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Titans 24, Colts 20
Colts +6.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Colts 27, Titans 13
MISSING

Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) at St. Louis Rams (2-11)
Line: Bengals by 7. Total: 39.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Bengals -6.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Bengals -6.5.
Sunday, Dec. 18, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Bengals.

If you didn’t see it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 4, Episode 14 has been posted – Emmitt Smith stops Evil Tim Tebow.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: How the hell are the Rams going to score? If you exclude special-teams crap, St. Louis has tallied 13, 13, 7, 20, 0 and 13 points in its previous six contests, five of which were against teams under .500.

Sam Bradford is nowhere near 100 percent. He couldn’t set his feet Monday night, and it’s unlikely that he’ll be much healthier on just five days’ rest. Of course, it doesn’t help that his offensive line has surrendered the most sacks in the NFL this year (46). The Bengals are ranked tied for sixth in sacks accumulated (36).

The Rams’ only hope is to establish Steven Jackson, but that’s a long shot. The Bengals also rank sixth versus the rush (3.8 YPC).

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: By now, you’ve probably heard that the Rams have 10 cornerbacks on injured reserve. Andy Dalton has to be a happy man going from battling Houston’s elite secondary to having the luxury of torching St. Louis’ injury-ravaged defensive backfield.

Dalton and A.J. Green will have a huge game, as should Cedric Benson. The Rams rank dead last versus opposing ground attacks (5.2 YPC).

The one thing St. Louis does well defensively is get to the quarterback, thanks in part to Chris Long. This was apparent Monday night when the front line did a good job of rattling Tarvaris Jackson. However, Seattle has a poor offensive line, whereas Cincinnati’s unit has yielded just 10 sacks since Week 6.

RECAP: The Bengals usually suck as big favorites, but they’ll cover in this situation for a change. The Rams are just atrocious, and they happen to be in a bad spot because teams coming off Monday night losses of 17-plus are 20-37 against the spread since 1999.

UNIT CHANGE: I’m bumping this up to three units because the Rams will be starting Kellen Clemens.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Why would anyone bet on St. Louis?

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 84% (53,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Monday Misery: Teams coming off MNF losses of 17+ are 20-37 ATS since 1999.

Bengals are 7-23 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Bengals are 3-13 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more since 2007.

Opening Line: Bengals -6.5.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Bengals 24, Rams 9
Bengals -7 (3 Units) — Push; $0
Under 39 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bengals 20, Rams 13

Week 15 NFL Picks – Late Games
Lions at Raiders, Patriots at Broncos, Jets at Eagles, Browns at Cardinals, Ravens at Chargers, Steelers at 49ers

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 15 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

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2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)