NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2011): 4-8-1 (-$820)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2011): 3-10 (-$1,145)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2011): 7-7 (+$695)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2011): 9-7 (+$490)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2011): 6-7-1 (-$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2011): 7-9 (-$435)

NFL Picks (2011): 89-94-8 (-$4,460)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 5, 5:50 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 13 NFL Picks – Early Games

Baltimore Ravens (8-3) at Cleveland Browns (4-7)
Line: Ravens by 7. Total: 38.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Ravens -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Ravens -7.5.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 4:05 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

If you didn’t see it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 4, Episode 12 has been posted – Ndamukong Suh is sent to anger management after hurting more people.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Here we go again. Will the Ravens actually show up, or will they be flat like they’ve played all year against inferior competition on the road? Prior to the Seattle contest, John Harbaugh said that battling the Seahawks was going to be the “most important game of the season,” so it’s hard to trust Baltimore.

This is no cakewalk, at least not for Joe Flacco. The Browns rank 11th versus aerial attacks, thanks in part to elite cornerback Joe Haden. He’ll shut down either Anquan Boldin or Torrey Smith (presumably the former), so Flacco’s options will be limited. Luckily, Flacco plays behind an improved front line that has surrendered just two sacks in the previous three weeks, so he’ll have all the time in the world to scan the field.

Baltimore’s best option will be running the ball. That’s a pretty obvious statement that can be applicable to most of the team’s games, but it needs to be said because offensive coordinator Cam Cameron can be pretty stupid sometimes (OK, all the time.) Cleveland is 21st versus the rush, so the Ravens have the matchup edge there.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Peyton Hillis is back, so the Browns no longer have to rely on Chris Ogbonnaya. I guess this is good news, though Hillis isn’t nearly as effective as he was in the middle of last year. Thanks to a combination of injuries and the Madden Curse, Hillis is slow and sluggish. He poses no threat to Baltimore’s No. 1 run defense.

Colt McCoy will be asked to move the chains on his own, which could prove to be disastrous given his physical limitations and his glaring lack of help at receiver. Greg Little is his top option, but the physically gifted rookie wideout is guilty of a few drops and incorrect routes every week.

Pass protection will also be an issue. The Ravens lead the NFL in sacks (38), and McCoy is frequently running for his life because of glaring holes at every offensive line position except left tackle and center.

RECAP: Baltimore should be able to win this contest pretty easily. Of course, there’s a major difference between “should” and “will.” As mentioned, the Ravens have had major issues getting up for inferior competition. Since this is a battle against a divisional opponent, maybe they’ll be more motivated. I wouldn’t bet on it though.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

People still continue to back the Ravens as a road favorite.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 88% (67,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

History: Home Team has won 10 of the last 14 meetings (Ravens have won the last 6 meetings).

Ravens are 13-9 ATS vs. teams with losing records under John Harbaugh.

Opening Line: Ravens -6.5.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Browns 10
Ravens -7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 38 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 24, Browns 10
MISSING

St. Louis Rams (2-9) at San Francisco 49ers (9-2)
Line: 49ers by 14. Total: 38.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): 49ers -10.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): 49ers -11.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

A friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Nov. 28, 2011 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) Jerks of the Bowling Alley. 2) Missing Tooth Man. 3) Indian Restaurant.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: I don’t know how the Rams are going to score. I mean, really. How are they even going to convert first downs?

The Rams have so many injuries up front, so they once again won’t be able to open up holes for Steven Jackson. Even if they had all of their personnel, that would prove to be a great challenge considering that the 49ers are ranked second against the run (3.3 YPC). San Francisco amazingly hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown all year – the first team to do so through 11 games since the 1929 Providence Steamrollers.

Pass blocking will be an even greater issue. St. Louis couldn’t even keep Sam Acho and the Cardinals out of the backfield, so I don’t know how the front line is going to block Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: As bad as the Ram scoring unit has been, the defense is even worse. Seriously, how do you allow Chris Wells to rush for 228 yards on just 27 carries? Embarrassing.

If Wells can gain 8.4 yards per attempt, Frank Gore could easily have a career game. Of course, the Niners might be so far ahead that Kendall Hunter could get a decent workload.

The 49ers should be able to throw the ball as well. A strange fact is that St. Louis has a whopping 10 cornerbacks on injured reserve. Alex Smith shouldn’t have any issues aside from perhaps pass protection. He was sacked nine times on Thanksgiving. But considering that the 49ers have had nine days to prepare for this contest, I think they’ll have their blocking assignments shored up.

RECAP: Unless the 49ers play sloppily and commit turnovers, this game won’t be close. The Rams just have too many injuries and not enough firepower to compete with one of the top teams in the NFL.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.

The 49ers could be flat off their loss to the Ravens, but this is a divisional matchup.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

I’m surprised there isn’t even more action on the host.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 78% (39,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won 9 of the last 12 meetings.

Rams are 29-47 ATS in road games since 2001 (9-9 since 2009).

Rams are 20-31 ATS on grass since 2001.

Steve Spagnuolo is 0-5 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.

49ers are 11-5 ATS against divisional opponents in the past 16 instances.

Opening Line: 49ers -13.5.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: 49ers 27, Rams 6
49ers -14 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 38.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
49ers 26, Rams 0

Dallas Cowboys (7-4) at Arizona Cardinals (4-7)
Line: Cowboys by 4. Total: 47.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Cowboys -7.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Cowboys -6.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com’s GameCenter and my thoughts on them.

Once again, these comments are all from some user named Migelini, who might just be the dumbest person alive:

1. “i no i no you play eng each othur now. who better thrower bradey or sandchez.”

Hmm… Tom “Bradey” or Mark “Sandchez?” Who is a better thrower? I wonder…

2. “seahawks beest #1. runny guy marchel is beest. Sid his the man. seahawks grate either tarvis or whithart as thrower.”

I think we should all petition Roger Goodell to change the name of the “running back” position to “runny guy.”

3. “i agree on you. obamma is grate prez. ”

I’m just as shocked as you are that Migelini is able to talk politics. And by the way, is it just me, or does “I agree on you” sound kinda dirty?

By the way, someone sent Migelini a random response:

migelini learn how to fuken speel…its beast not beest s t u p i d little kid

DALLAS OFFENSE: Tony Romo has developed a recent habit of sucking in the first three quarters and then stepping up in the clutch. I guess this is better than the opposite, which is something Romo has been criticized for over the years. It’s still not good in terms of covering the spread, however, which is the only thing I care about. Hey, I’m a degenerate gambler, what can I say?

Romo has battled some tough defenses lately though. The Dolphins have been “gong grate” the past month, and as I discussed earlier, the Redskins have been much better since putting Perry Riley into the lineup. The Cardinals? Well, they haven’t been bad either, limiting their previous four opponents to 13 (Sam Bradford), 17 (QB Dog Killer with broken ribs and without DeSean Jackson), 23 (Alex Smith) and 13 (Sam Bradford minus seven for the kickoff return). So, it’s hard to say how good they are because of the meager competition, but we can at least agree that they aren’t terrible.

Still though, it’s going to be tough to keep the Cowboys out of the end zone as long as Romo and company don’t kill themselves with mistakes. Unfortunately for Dallas, that’s often the case.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Rejoice, Cardinal fans, for Kevin Kolb is likely to return under center this week. No more accurate passes to the cheerleaders from John Skelton!

Kolb isn’t much of an upgrade, but he is at least 9-percent more accurate. This could make the difference against the Cowboys, who struggled to contain Matt Moore and Rex Grossman recently.

Arizona will have to establish a strong rushing attack in an attempt to neutralize DeMarcus Ware. Dallas is tied for seventh with 30 sacks, while the Cardinals have surrendered the most sacks in the NFL (36) behind only the Rams (39). Luckily for Kolb, “runny guy” Chris Wells finally appears to be healthy. Wells gets to go up against a defense that has surrendered an average of 119.8 rushing yards the previous five weeks.

RECAP: There are four reasons why I really like the Cardinals to pull the upset:

1. This is a house of horrors for the Cowboys. Dating back to 1999, Dallas is a miserable 1-6 straight up at Arizona. It’s weird because the stadium is usually 75-percent Cowboy fans, but the Cardinals just get up for their most hated rival.

2. But how can the crappy Cardinals win this game, you ask? Well, they’re not that crappy. Seriously. Dating back to Week 8, they nearly beat the Ravens and then defeated the Rams and Eagles (the latter on the road). They gave the 49ers a pretty tough battle until the third quarter after that, and then they slew the Rams again on Sunday.

3. The trend I brought up twice earlier applies: Unrested home dogs are 93-46 against the spread off a straight-up road win playing against a team coming off home win.

4. Reverse line movement: The public is pounding the Cowboys, yet the spread has dropped from -6 to -4.5. Something’s up.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

There are no believers in the Cardinals.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 88% (72,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Tony Romo is 6-14 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (1-5 ATS as an underdog).

Cardinals are 20-7 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Cardinals are 13-6 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 under Ken Whisenhunt.

Opening Line: Cowboys -6.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Cardinals 24, Cowboys 23
Cardinals +4 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 19, Cowboys 13

Green Bay Packers (11-0) at New York Giants (6-5)
Line: Packers by 6.5. Total: 53.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Packers -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Packers -6.5.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Packers.

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter: I’ve been posting some comments from perverted users directed at hot chicks on GameCenter. The past few weeks, I listed comments that two girls named Kimbrkitty and Emilysh received.

Here’s someone else. Her name is Zoe0010. Here’s her profile picture:

Check out what the GameCenter whack jobs sent her way this week:

1. “hey pretty girl gosh your pic is sooooo cute.You distract me about what I wanted to say.”

This actually doesn’t sound like a full-blown pervert. Zoe should totally go out with this dude.

2. “Don’t change your profile pic it’s a nice pic. i love you”

Only because of her profile pic? This guy doesn’t sound superficial at all.

3. “I read your about me and congratulated you on Tebos performance , I never talk about religion or politics especially with a women.”

Holy crap, Don Tollefson posts on GameCenter!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Poor Giants. They just had to deal with Drew Brees, and now they get Aaron Rodgers. Of course, they’re pretty familiar with Rodgers, having watched him carve up their pathetic defense last December on 25-of-37 passing for 404 yards and four touchdowns.

Rodgers could be in for a similar performance. He’s on fire, while New York’s defense is reeling. Since Week 9, the Giants have surrendered 7.9 YPA, bad enough for 28th in the NFL. And making matters worse, Osi Umenyiora is out with an ankle sprain.

The Packers should be able to run the ball effectively if they want to. The Giants’ weakness against the run has been well-publicized; they’ve permitted a total of 328 rushing yards the past two weeks.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’s the same old story for the Giants. They look really good at times, but they just continuously shoot themselves in the foot with dumb penalties and untimely drops. We saw this happen Monday night at the Chevy Superdome, or whatever that place is called nowadays.

Another major problem for the Giants is that they can’t run the ball whatsoever. They’ve had great matchups to do so against the Eagles and Saints, but weren’t able to capitalize with Brandon Jacobs, who is sluggish and slow. Ahmad Bradshaw has been out since Week 9 with a nagging foot injury, but it’s not yet clear if he’ll be able to play. New York may push him back in a very important game.

The Packers have issues in their secondary, so expect Manning, Nicks and Cruz to pile up the yardage again. If they make no mistakes, they’ll be able to score frequently, but that’s like saying the GameCenter people would have a chance at sleeping with Zoe0010 if they were rich and famous, and knew how to spell common words correctly.

RECAP: I think I’ve picked the Packers all but once this year (the opener), and I’m going to stick with that strategy. Rodgers is a covering machine, owning a 31-15 spread record since 2009.

Here are some other reasons to bet Green Bay:

1. The Packers will be playing on nine days rest. The Giants, meanwhile, are on just five days rest. This is a pretty big advantage for the visitor.

2. Speaking of having to play Monday night, teams coming off Monday night losses of 17-plus are 18-37 against the spread since 1999.

3. On a related note, teams tend to struggle at home following a Monday Night Football road defeat of double digits. They are 13-27 against the spread since 2002.

4. Road favorites following an away victory are a decent 58-42 against the spread since 1989.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Shocking betting action!

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 83% (73,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Monday Misery: Teams coming off MNF losses of 17+ are 18-37 ATS since 1999.

Packers are 33-16 ATS on the road under Mike McCarthy.

Aaron Rodgers is 31-15 ATS since 2009.

Opening Line: Packers -7.

Opening Total: 52.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Packers 45, Giants 27
Packers -6.5 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Over 53.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Packers 38, Giants 35

Detroit Lions (7-4) at New Orleans Saints (8-3)
Line: Saints by 8.5. Total: 54.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Saints -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Saints -9 (no Suh).
Sunday, Dec. 4, 8:20 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Saints.

If you’ve been following my 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you’re wondering which players to start, I’ve got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page (will be posted tonight) as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings, which will be updated by Wednesday afternoon each week.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Lions have had to play without Ndamukong Suh for a half against Aaron Rodgers and this Sunday versus Drew Brees. Think Suh picked a wrong time to karate kick a Packer lineman?

Suh’s not the only defensive player sitting out this contest. The Lions will also be missing stud safety Louis Delmas. Cornerbacks Brandon McDonald and Chris Houston could also be out. Regardless, Detroit is not stopping Brees, who simply has way too many weapons at his disposal.

It’s not like the Lions can completely focus on shutting down Brees’ weapons and applying pressure to the quarterback. They rank 28th against the run, so Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles will be able to pick up big chunks of yardage.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford’s fractured finger is apparently not affecting him all that much. It’s his decision-making that has been poor in the past few weeks. It also doesn’t help that his teammates commit penalties, drop passes and have balls ripped out of their hands. That sounds a bit naughty, but it’s true. I’m looking at you, Brandon Pettigrew. Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

Like Eli Manning, Ser Stafford will pile up the passing yardage against this defense, but I expect the Saints to come up with turnovers at the right moment again. Keep in mind that the unbelievable crowd noise at the Superdome is going to discombobulate this offense at times.

Perhaps the Lions will be able to limit their errors if they put the ball in the hands of Kevin Smith. Smith is a really dynamic player, but gets injured far too easily. He went down in the first quarter last week when it looked like he was going to have a huge performance. He’s battling an ankle injury right now, so his status is up the air.

RECAP: The Saints should be able to win by double digits. They’re so good at home, while the Lions are just playing too sloppily right now.

There are conflicting systems here, by the way. Teams that just enjoyed a Monday night blowout usually cover (see trend section), but big home favorites coming off a home blowout tend to struggle against the spread.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

No Suh? Easy Saints win, right?

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 76% (65,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Monday Magic: Teams coming off MNF wins of 17+ are 41-23 ATS since 1999.

Lions are 17-5 ATS on the road after a home loss of 10+.

Saints are 17-10 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Drew Brees is 26-18 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Saints are 10-23 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Saints -8.5.

Opening Total: 53.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Saints 44, Lions 24
Saints -8.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 54 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 31, Lions 17

San Diego Chargers (4-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-8)
Line: Chargers by 3. Total: 39.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Chargers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Chargers -3.
Monday, Dec. 5, 8:30 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

It’s Monday Night Football, but we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Don Tollefson and Herm Edwards, and inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen. Here’s what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Jacksonville, home of the Jaguars. Guys, I don’t know if I can announce this game. Do you know how much money I’ve lost betting on the Chargers this year? Every week, I think that this is the week that Philip Rivers turns it around. But they keep losing, and now I’ve lost my house, my wife, my two dogs and my precious Michael Vick poster.

Emmitt: Mike, this exactly why bettin’ should be illegalized. Good folk bet on the game, and good folk lose money. Like the wise sayin’ go, the good folk always finish in last place.

Reilly: I know, Emmitt. But this spread is too easy. All the Chargers have to do is win by three? Easy money! I’m going to hit “Place Bet” on my sportsbook right now.

Herm: Don’t do it! Don’t do it! Don’t do it! Can’t do it! Shouldn’t do it! Would be a fool to do it! Gonna lose money! Gonna lose cash! Gonna lose the house! Gonna lose the poster! Here’s what I would do! Here it is! I’ll show you what I would do! I’ll tell you what I would do! I would… uhh…

Reilly: Here’s what you would do, Herm. You’d still a fist up your a**hole and f*** your sister! Now shut the f*** up! I need some way to win back my money.

Tollefson: I have an idea for you, Kevin. You should go to the store, and buy a blond wig, a pretty dress and makeup. You should dress up as a woman, and offer to clean some rich football player’s kitchen. If you do a good job, he might just marry you.

Reilly: Hmm… do you think Michael Vick would marry me, Don?

Tollefson: If you spent all day, every day, cooking and cleaning well, he’d be lucky to have you, Kevin.

Millen: But guys, you’re forgetting the most important part!

Reilly: Let me guess, the kielbasa?

Millen: Uhh… whoa… how did you know?

Reilly: Because that’s all you talk about, idiot!

Millen: Well, it’s only customary to seal a marriage by sticking some kielbasa up your partner’s rear end.

Emmitt: Mike, you very disgustings with your kiel… uhh… kiel… kielbonesa. I have to been to many wedding in my time, and I have never seen the gloom and the bird have any kielbonesa in their behind.

Reilly: Yeah, Matt doesn’t know what he’s talking about, Emmitt. Now if you’ll excuse me, I need to buy a wig, a dress and some makeup. We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Jack Del Rio was fired Tuesday morning – a move that was about three years overdue. Interim coach Mel Tucker announced that Blaine Gabbert would be the starter in this contest. In other words, the Jaguars won’t score many points.

Gabbert stinks. He’s inaccurate and has no pocket presence. He also doesn’t look downfield amid a pass rush. And to top it off, he has terrible body language. The Chargers are terrible against aerial attacks (29th; 8.1 YPA), but I have no confidence that Gabbert can put together multiple touchdown drives in this contest.

If it weren’t for Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jaguars wouldn’t score at all. San Diego is a bit better versus ground attacks, but not by much (20th; 4.4 YPC). Jones-Drew should have a big night as long as Jacksonville doesn’t fall behind early.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: I can’t say that Jacksonville will fall behind early because Philip Rivers stinks this year. He doesn’t want to admit it, but he’s clearly injured. I don’t know why he just doesn’t come out and say it. I understand that he wants to act tough, but there’s no shame in admitting you’re hurt. And he probably could have saved bettors, including Kevin Reilly, money by doing so.

The Jaguars have injury issues of their own on defense, as they’re missing both starting cornerbacks in addition to some front seven personnel. Their pass defense wasn’t really challenged last week because of Matt Leinart and T.J. Yates, so we’ll see what happens when Rivers takes the field.

Jacksonville shut down Arian Foster and Ben Tate last week, but that wasn’t a very good measuring stick for this defense because they were able to stack the box without having to worry much about the pass. Back in Week 11, however, the Browns collectively rushed for 121 yards on 23 attempts, so Ryan Mathews should have some success on the ground.

RECAP: I love betting against really bad teams that just fired their coaches. The Jaguars are one of the five worst squads in the NFL, so I’d put them in that category. Unfortunately, we can’t go too heavy on the Chargers because Norv Turner sucks and Rivers is hurt.

This will be a two-unit bet. I don’t want to gamble much more than that because I don’t feel like joining Kevin Reilly in dressing up like a woman.

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.

The Jaguars just fired Jack Del Rio.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

People aren’t giving up on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 71% (83,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Norv Turner is 10-3 ATS as a favorite after losing as a favorite.

Philip Rivers is 19-11 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (6-2 ATS as an underdog).

Jaguars are 12-25 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Chargers -1.5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Chargers 24, Jaguars 10
Chargers -3 -115 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 39.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chargers 38, Jaguars 14

Week 13 NFL Picks – Early Games
Eagles at Seahawks, Titans at Bills, Bengals at Steelers, Raiders at Dolphins, Chiefs at Bears, Colts at Patriots, Broncos at Vikings, Panthers at Buccaneers, Falcons at Texans, Jets at Redskins

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Packers PK, Saints -2.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300

Moneyline Underdog: Bengals +260 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)