NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2011): 4-8-1 (-$820)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2011): 3-10 (-$1,145)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2011): 7-7 (+$695)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2011): 9-7 (+$490)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2011): 6-7-1 (-$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2011): 7-9 (-$435)

NFL Picks (2011): 89-94-8 (-$4,460)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 5, 5:50 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 13 NFL Picks – Late Games

Philadelphia Eagles (4-7) at Seattle Seahawks (4-7)
Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 43.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Eagles -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Eagles -3.
Thursday, Dec. 1, 8:20 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

Week 12 Recap: The good news is that I went 2-1 with my top three picks. The bad news is that I still lost money because a slew of my three-unit selections failed. Let’s discuss the lost bets.

Steelers -10.5 at Chiefs: In the wake of this spread loss, the Steelers are now a pitiful 1-8 against the spread when favored by nine or more points on the road in the Ben Roethlisberger era. What’s more telling is that they are 5-4 straight up in those contests – which is just horrific because they’re obviously projected to win those games in blowout fashion.

I knew the Steelers sucked as big road favorites, but I thought they were in a good spot because they were coming off a bye. I figured they’d be focused. Instead, the Chiefs showed a lot more energy.

Still, how’d they not cover despite getting three turnovers from Tyler Palko in the first half? Ridiculous.

Bears +3 at Raiders: Caleb f***ing Hanie. What the hell? I figured the Bears would go conservative with their backup quarterback. I thought they’d play tough defense, get a big special teams play or two, and eke out a victory against the Raiders.

Instead, Hanie decided to throw three interceptions, including one really awful one that turned a potential Chicago field goal into three points for Oakland right before the half. What the hell.

Oh, and nice fake-spike spike, Cal. You fooled everyone.

Rams -2.5 vs. Cardinals: I was happy to get a special teams touchdown in my favor, but then Patrick Peterson scored for the Cardinals. For those keeping score, 15 of 20 special teams scores in my multi-unit picks have gone against me.

Oh, and since I’ve been asked by multiple people, no, that is not a picture of my son (I don’t have one). And no, it’s not a kid that Jerry Sandusky had a sexy time with either. It’s just some random crying baby picture I found via a Google search.

Anyway, I have content you might like this week, including my rant about Bob Costas, my thoughts on why Tim Tebow is so up-and-down during games, hate mail I received, my Pro Bowl picks, and the usual, including an interesting twist in the Matthew Millen Kim spam mail saga.

I’ll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: There’s no spread on this game as of Tuesday afternoon because of QB Dog Killer’s status. Since QBDK couldn’t go on Sunday afternoon, I doubt he’ll be ready four days later. I would safely pencil Vince Young under center.

Young played somewhat well against the Patriots, but was betrayed by his receivers, who dropped balls all afternoon. The main culprit was DeSean Jackson, who botched three potential catches, including a touchdown. Jackson was justly benched for this, but is expected to start this game.

The Eagles should be able to throw on the Seahawks. Rex Grossman was able to do so, after all. But don’t expect much out of the ground attack. Even if Andy Reid doesn’t eat the running portion of his playbook prior to kickoff, the Seahawks rank fifth against the rush, limiting opposing backs to 3.6 YPC.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks were playing well enough offensively last week until the third quarter. Sidney Rice suffered yet another concussion – his second in three weeks – and the offense fell apart after that, as the team’s entire game plan was screwed up in the wake of Rice’s departure.

I’ll be shocked if Rice plays off three days rest, so Tarvaris Jackson will have to find someone else to throw to. Luckily for him, the Eagles won’t have all of their big guns either; Nnamdi Asomugha was on the field last week, but he was hobbling around on one leg. He should have never suited up after that knee injury. He won’t be anywhere close to 100 percent in this contest.

The Seahawks will attack Philadelphia’s stop unit with Doug Baldwin and Marshawn Lynch. Baldwin has a nice matchup because the Eagles have had issues dealing with slot receivers all year. Lynch, meanwhile, goes up against a suspect Eagle rush defense. This unit has improved recently as far as the numbers are concerned, but it hasn’t exactly battled elite running backs either. Shutting down BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Brandon Jacobs and a hobbled Chris Wells isn’t exactly a challenge.

RECAP: I love Seattle in this spot. Or rather, I hate Philly given the circumstances.

How the hell are the Eagles going to get up for this game? They threw the kitchen sink against the Patriots and even led 10-0. They ultimately lost, and their season is officially over. Now, they have to travel across the country and battle an underrated Seahawk squad (6-2-1 ATS last nine games) on just three days rest. Good luck with that.

I’ll have a precise pick when there’s a spread, but I’m going big on Seattle. I also really like the Under.

LINE POSTED: This line is what I thought it was going to be. I love the Seahawks in this spot.

The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.

The Eagles’ season is over, and they’re somehow going to have to get up for Seattle off three days rest.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

People won’t give up on the Dream Team.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 75% (54,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Eagles are 73-53 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Opening Line: Eagles -2.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Seahawks 20, Eagles 16
Seahawks +3 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 43.5 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Seahawks 31, Eagles 14
Seahawks-Eagles Recap

Tennessee Titans (6-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-6)
Line: Bills by 1. Total: 43.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Bills -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Bills -1.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Titans.

Vegas Recap: Just when I thought the sportsbooks were going to turn it around… They got killed again this week, with four of the six highly bet teams (Texans, Panthers, Falcons, Patriots) covering the spread. Vegas won with Cleveland and Kansas City, by the way.

Why are sportsbooks having such a bad year? E-mailer Zack D. sent me an interesting conspiracy theory:

Sorry you’re having such an awful season. My own system (Gamblor) is too – it has gone bankrupt, primarily thanks to the Eagles.

I am convinced that Vegas is taking advantage of the terrible economy to put the sharps out of business this year. The line in the Eagles game had me convinced of it – it sat at +3.5 all weekend and then finally slipped down to +3 – seemed like the biggest trap I’ve ever seen in my life – but it wasn’t.

It was just a stupid, stupid line. I’ve seen too many of those these season to believe that the books are just making mistakes, and your own troubles makes it even more credible that Vegas is (unhappily) taking a hit from regular gamblers (knowing they’ll get it back soon enough) in order to raid the bankrolls of the gamblers who are consistently costing them money on a yearly basis.

Anyhow, best of luck with the remainder of the season. Personally, I’ll be gambling with imaginary money from here on out.

I like it. Seriously, I mean, why were the Patriots only -3 at Philly? I projected that to be the line with QB Dog Killer in the game, but with Vince Young starting, I would have made the spread -6.

Something strange is definitely going down this year, and I think Zack D. might be on to something.

Anyway, I’ll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I’ll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Chris Johnson is back! Maybe. I don’t know. Probably not. He did rush for 190 yards against the Buccaneers, but Tampa’s run defense has been atrocious ever since it lost Gerald McCoy to injury. Since CJ20 has been dreadful for most of this season, it’s hard to take him seriously.

Then again, he could just repeat what he did this week because the Bills absolutely stink against the rush as well. They’ve surrendered an average of 129.8 rushing yards to their previous four opponents, and that includes Shonn Greene twice and Reggie Bush.

Despite Johnson going off, Matt Hasselbeck didn’t have a good performance Sunday. Maybe you can blame that on the sloppy weather and the fact that he was coming off an injury, but he should have been much better against a struggling Tampa pass defense. Luckily for Hasselbeck, the Bills have had trouble stopping aerial attacks as well, so maybe he’ll rebound.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: I’m shocked the Bills scored 24 against the Jets considering the injuries to Fred Jackson and stud center Eric Wood. Ryan Fitzpatrick somehow successfully attacked Darrelle Revis by continuously targeting Steve Johnson. Unfortunately, Fitzpatrick was ultimately betrayed by Johnson on the final drive.

The Fitzpatrick-to-Johnson connection should once again be effective. The Titans have a meager pass rush (21 sacks), so Fitzpatrick should have time in the pocket to find his No. 1 wideout downfield. Then again, Fitzpatrick was sacked twice by Aaron Maybin last week, so perhaps Buffalo’s offense will struggle.

One thing we do know is that the Bills won’t be able to run the ball. C.J. Spiller didn’t take advantage of his opportunity, gaining worse than three yards per carry at New York. The Titans are worse against the rush than the Jets are, but I just don’t trust Buffalo’s blocking.

RECAP: Save for not traveling on a short week, the Bills and Eagles are in a similar situation. Buffalo threw the kitchen sink at an AFC East foe in a must-win game, but came up short. I just don’t know how the Bills are going to get up for a lesser (and desperate) opponent now that their season is over.

Here’s a trend to support the pick: Home favorites coming off two consecutive road losses are 32-46 against the spread since 2002.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

Buffalo’s season is over. I don’t see them getting up for Tennessee off an emotional loss.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 51% (54,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Bills are 17-11 ATS at home after Oct. 1 when favored by fewer than 6 points since 2002.

Bills are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Bills -1.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Titans 27, Bills 20
Titans +1 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Titans 23, Bills 17

Kansas City Chiefs (4-7) at Chicago Bears (7-4)
Line: Bears by 7. Total: 36.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Bears -10.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Bears -9.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Bears.

Time for hate mail!

Despite losing money (again), I only received one piece of hate mail this week. This is from Dan K:

walter. your pic are terrible. i had to sell my shanty because of you! now I live under tonneau cover

My response:

Looks like you had to sell your browser’s spell-checker as well.

I’m also sad to report that I haven’t heard from the Real John Moss in weeks. Maybe he got married. Luckily, I was able to obtain a picture of his beautiful wife:

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Todd Haley said Monday that Tyler Palko is the starter. That’s a load of crap. The Chiefs aren’t paying Kyle Orton more than $2 million to sit behind a quarterback who has nearly as many turnovers (7) as points scored (12) the past two weeks.

But Orton’s not the solution either. He couldn’t win in Denver because of his physical limitations, and it’s highly doubtful that he’ll be able to turn it around in Kansas City. He doesn’t even know the offense yet, so how can he possibly succeed against a tough Chicago defense?

I’m sure the Chiefs will come out and attempt to run their usual no-huddle runs with Jackie Battle, Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster, but the Bears haven’t yielded more than 85 rushing yards to an opponent since Week 5. So count that strategy out.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Caleb Hanie was just awful in the first half of last week’s game. That interception in the red zone that led to an Oakland field goal just prior to intermission was an absolute killer. But Hanie was decent after the break, scrambling for chunks of yardage and hitting Johnny Knox downfield for big gains.

Hanie has a tough task ahead of him, as the Chiefs pretty much shut down Ben Roethlisberger on Sunday night. I doubt they’ll have the same motivation now that their season is over, but it’s definitely not going to be easy for Hanie.

Since that’s the case, the Bears absolutely have to utilize Matt Forte as much as possible. Giving him 17 touches last week was unacceptable. If Chicago wants to win this game, it’ll give him the ball at least 25 times.

RECAP: Prior to kickoff Sunday night, Cris Collinsworth told us that the Chiefs believed they still had a chance at the playoffs. As dumb as that notion was, they sure as hell played like it, showing much more emotion and energy than the Steelers.

I doubt they’ll be able to match that this week. At 4-7, they have to know that they don’t really have much of a shot at the postseason, right? If so, the Bears should be able to win pretty easily.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Tons of late action on the Bears now that Tyler Palko is the starter.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 74% (62,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Chiefs are 22-13 ATS as a road underdog since 2007.

Opening Line: Bears -9.

Opening Total: 36.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Bears 24, Chiefs 3
Bears -7 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 36 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 10, Bears 3

Oakland Raiders (7-4) at Miami Dolphins (3-8)
Line: Dolphins by 3. Total: 43.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Dolphins -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Dolphins -1.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

Here are some random NFL notes I couldn’t post anywhere else:

1. Chris Berman really offended me two weeks ago. He was discussing Denver’s victory over the Chiefs when Tim Tebow went 2-of-8, and how they were going to have to win in a different manner from now on:

“We don’t have steak. We’re going to eat cereal. And we’re going to eat cereal very well.”

What the hell is wrong with cereal? As a cereal fan, I have to say I am outraged by this statement. Cereal is infinitely superior to steak, save for the A1 sauce, which I could just drink out of the bottle. Can you imagine cereal with A1 Sauce? NOM NOM NOM NOM!

2. More on Tebow. Forum member Eagles4Life described what a Broncos game feels like nowadays:

Tebow is like some kind of predictable action movie everything is screwed up and gets worse and worse until the end when the hero somehow emerges victorious solely because he’s the main character.

So true. Several idiots on ESPN love to bash Tebow, but they keep looking like bigger and bigger fools with each Tebow victory.

Here’s my take on Tebow: I think he’s definitely capable of throwing somewhat well. I mean, he did pass for 320 yards against the Texans last year. That was no fluke.

I feel like Tebow just overthinks things. ESPN a**holes, pretentious scouts and even his evil team president keep telling him that his mechanics suck, that his footwork is sloppy, that his throwing motion is too long. I think Tebow keeps these things in mind throughout the first three quarters, and it consequently adversely affects him. But in the fourth quarter, when the game is on the line, Tebow just reacts. Instinct takes over, and the real Tebow comes out.

I wish people would stop telling Tebow how much he sucks. Douche bags like Cris Carter, Bomani Jones, Merril Hoge, etc. want him to fail, but that’s not going to happen. However, they could keep Tebow from reaching his potential, and for anyone outside of Kansas City, Oakland and San Diego, that would be a damn shame because he’s so fun to watch.

3. Speaking of pretentious douche bags, Bob Costas needs to shut the f*** up. If you didn’t watch the Steelers-Chiefs game Sunday night, Costas gave us his thoughts on Steve Johnson’s celebration dance where the Buffalo wideout mimicked Plaxico Burress getting shot in the leg after a touchdown.

Costas led off with, “We live in a culture that gets more stupid and immature by the minute.”

As he said this, I tweeted (@walterfootball), “I wish we were all great human beings like Bob Costas” and got some good responses like Koasttocoast’s, “try being fake.”

I’ve always thought Costas was a pompous, arrogant pr**k, but he really outdid himself by talking down to us. I’m sorry, Bob. We’re not as cultured as you. We can’t differentiate between Fancy Shmancy Wine A and Fancy Shmancy Wine B. We don’t spend $500 on dinner each night at some Chez Pierre restaurant. And we don’t bathe in our own feces like you do.

Who cares about Johnson’s touchdown dance? I thought it was hilarious, and most other people did too. It’s not like Plaxico Burress shot someone else. It’s not like Plaxico lost a leg in the process. Plaxico made a dumb mistake and is OK now, and I feel like anyone who is stupid enough to shoot themselves in the leg deserves to be made fun of.

Holier-than-thou a**hat Bob Costas may disagree with that. But you know what? After listening to Costas scold us and watching him squirm around trying to remove the sang out of his vag, I now find Johnson’s touchdown dance even funnier. It might make me stupid and immature, but I don’t care. F*** you, Costas.

MIAMI OFFENSE: I don’t really have a logical explanation for Matt Moore’s turn-around. Moore was absolutely dreadful against the Jets in that Monday night blowout, but he’s gotten better and better each week. With a couple more wins, the Dolphins will be out of the running for Matt Barkley and Robert Griffin, so they may have to roll with Moore next year. For the sake of their fans’ collective sanity, I hope this is legitimate.

Moore will have a pretty tough challenge in this contest. The Raiders rank sixth against the pass with a 6.6 YPA. They also put relentless pressure on the quarterback; they’ve mustered a whopping 15 sacks in their previous three games. That’s more than the Chiefs have all year!

Oakland is weak versus the rush, however, so it’ll be important for the Dolphins to keep a lead or at least stay close. Reggie Bush has been running the ball well, so he could pile up the yardage Sunday if given the opportunity.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Carson Palmer has also been playing well. He’s completed 65 percent of his passes the past three weeks. That figure dipped a bit after Sunday’s game against the Bears, but battling a tough defense without Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford was quite a challenge.

It won’t get any easier at Miami. The Dolphins have really shut down aerial attacks since their Week 5 bye, limiting the opposition to a 6.8 YPA in their previous seven contests.

Miami’s run defense has also been dynamic. The unit hasn’t permitted more than 87 rushing yards since Week 7. After a flurry of great performances, Michael Bush has been limited to 3.6 and 2.9 YPC in his previous two contests, so I expect the Dolphins to win in this area.

RECAP: This is a tough one to predict. The Dolphins just suffered an emotional loss on Thanksgiving, while the Raiders could be looking ahead to their battles against Green Bay and Detroit.

I’m picking Miami because Oakland will be playing an early game on the East Coast, but I wouldn’t bet on them.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
This is a tough spot for both teams. The Dolphins are coming off an emotional loss to the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Raiders have the Packers and Lions after this contest.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Lots of action on the visitor, as you might expect.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 74% (65,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

Dolphins are 4-12 ATS after a loss of 6 or fewer points since 2007.

Opening Line: Dolphins -1.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Dolphins 26, Raiders 20
Dolphins -3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Dolphins 34, Raiders 14

Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)
Line: Steelers by 7. Total: 42.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Steelers -9.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Steelers -9.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

Pro Bowl voting sucks as usual. Crappy players lead their respective positions, as they always do. In an effort to fix this, I’m going to post whom I voted for in this year’s Pro Bowl. Not that I’m going to watch that pointless game anyway:

AFC Quarterbacks: Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub – No surprise here. I actually wanted to vote for Tim Tebow because I’m a Teblower, but I’ll be unbiased here.

NFC Quarterbacks: Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers – I went with Eli over Matthew Stafford because the latter has thrown too many interceptions lately.

AFC Running Backs: Fred Jackson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice – It was really close between Jones-Drew, Rice and Arian Foster, but the latter has missed some action this season. Plus, the Texans didn’t exactly have a big downgrade to Ben Tate.

NFC Running Backs: Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson – There are a lot of great running backs in the NFC, but these three have been a cut above everyone else.

AFC Wide Receivers: A.J. Green, Vincent Jackson, Mike Wallace, Wes Welker – The choices are underwhelming here, as I had to include a rookie receiver as one of my players. Green’s been great though.

NFC Wide Receivers: Larry Fitzgerald, Greg Jennings, Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith – These receivers are much better.

Fullbacks: Marcel Reese (AFC), Jed Collins (NFC) – I made fun of the homer Raider announcers for calling Reese a “matchup nightmare,” but he does everything for Oakland. Collins, meanwhile, has been a beast of a blocker.

AFC Tight Ends: Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski – I actually didn’t want to include Gates because he isn’t the same player anymore, but there’s really no one else.

NFC Tight Ends: Tony Gonzalez, Jimmy Graham – Gonzalez is having an amazing year considering how done he looked last season.

AFC Offensive Tackles: Duane Brown, Michael Roos, Joe Thomas – Brown hasn’t surrendered a sack this year. Neither has Roos. Thomas is the best left tackle in football.

NFC Offensive Tackles: Bryan Bulaga, Jason Peters, Tyron Smith – After a rocky rookie campaign, Bulaga hasn’t allowed a single sack in 2011. Peters has been amazing this season. Smith had one poor game against the Eagles, but has otherwise been dominant in his first year.

AFC Guards: Kris Dielman, Brian Waters, Marshal Yanda – Dielman has missed a few games this year up until this point, but he was dominant when he was in the lineup. Waters has had a surprise season for New England. Yanda is the best guard in football.

NFC Guards: Steve Hutchinson, Carl Nicks, Josh Sitton – Hutchinson is still going strong. Nicks is the best guard in the NFC. Sitton has had some issues with penalties this year, but has been prolific as a blocker.

AFC Centers: Nick Mangold, Chris Myers – The Jets have been much better since Mangold returned from injury. Myers is the best center in football.

NFC Centers: John Sullivan, Scott Wells – Sullivan has really improved this season. Wells has been great for years.

AFC Defensive Ends: Andre Carter, Brett Keisel, Randy Starks – This ballot sucks. I wanted to vote for Carter, Terrell Suggs and Carlos Dunlap, but Suggs is listed as a linebacker, while Dunlap isn’t even on the ballot. Dunlap has been a monster this year, so where the hell is he?

NFC Defensive Ends: Jared Allen, Trent Cole, Chris Long – Once again, this ballot lacks someone I wanted to vote for. Since Cole has missed some time this year, I wanted to pick Jason Pierre-Paul, but he’s not listed.

AFC Defensive Tackles: Geno Atkins, Haloti Ngata, Richard Seymour – With 5.5 sacks, Atkins has been a monster. Everyone knows how good Ngata and Seymour are.

NFC Defensive Tackles: Cullen Jenkins, Jay Ratliff, Ndamukong Suh – Who would have thought that Jenkins would be a better signing for the Eagles than Nnamdi Asomugha? Ratliff is the top nose tackle in the NFC. Suh is great as long as he’s not kicking people.

AFC Inside Linebackers: Brian Cushing, Ray Lewis – Cushing has been great this year, and Lewis is still playing on a high level.

NFC Inside Linebackers: Navorro Bowman, Patrick Willis – Both 49er linebackers deserve to be in Hawaii. They are absolute studs.

AFC Outside Linebackers: Von Miller, Terrell Suggs, Cameron Wake – Miller is a freaking monster; he’s a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, let alone Defensive Rookie of the Year. Suggs and Wake are obvious choices, though LaMarr Woodley and Tamba Hali are close.

NFC Outside Linebackers: Clay Matthews, Brian Orakpo, DeMarcus Ware – Three of the NFC’s most dominant pass-rushers. I didn’t think any normal 4-3 outside linebackers were worth including.

AFC Cornerbacks: Champ Bailey, Joe Haden, Darrelle Revis – Bailey’s still getting it done at his age. Haden has limited receivers to a 47.5 completion percentage. Revis, of course, shuts everyone down (except last week).

NFC Cornerbacks: Brent Grimes, Carlos Rogers, Tramon Williams – The NFC has lesser corners, but all three guys have been great this year, including Grimes, who has yielded a 42.6 completion percentage.

Strong Safeties: Troy Polamalu, Adrian Wilson – Polamalu’s having another great year, while Wilson is rebounding off a poor 2010 campaign.

Free Safeties: Ed Reed, Earl Thomas – Reed’s obvious. Thomas isn’t a good Pro Bowl choice, but there just isn’t good safety play in the NFC.

Kickers: Sebastian Janikowski, Dan Bailey – Sebastian Janikowski has missed a few games, but he’s 16-of-18 with a long of 63. Dan Bailey has missed just one field goal all year and has a few game-winners.

Punters: Shane Lechler, Andy Lee – Lechler and Lee are the only punters with a 50-plus average.

Kick Returners: Joshua Cribbs, Devin Hester – I had an issue finding an AFC returner I liked, so I voted in Cribbs. Hester’s a no-brainer.

As for special-teamers, I just picked two guys randomly. I don’t really care about special teams. Maybe that’s why 15 of 20 special teams touchdowns have gone against me in my multi-unit picks this year. FML!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I voted for Ben Roethlisberger, but he definitely didn’t look very good Sunday night. He went 21-of-31 for 193 yards, one touchdown and an interception. It’s unclear if his fractured thumb was the culprit, but he definitely seemed off.

The Chiefs have really good cornerbacks though, but you can’t say the same thing about the Bengals. At least not anymore. Leon Hall suffered a season-ending injury in this matchup back in Week 10. Colt McCoy looked pretty functional against Cincinnati last week, so we’ll definitely learn a lot about Big Ben’s health depending on how he performs in this contest.

The Steelers might be able to run the ball pretty well. The Bengals are fourth versus the rush for the entire season (3.6 YPC), but they’ve surrendered at least four yards per carry to their previous four opponents.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Roethlisberger’s thumb is a concern for Pittsburgh’s offense. Troy Polamalu’s concussion, meanwhile, could impact the defense. Polamalu has an extensive concussion history, so it would be somewhat surprising to me if he were able to suit up. I know he’s not showing any symptoms, but the Steelers should be really careful about this.

Polamalu’s absence would be huge for Andy Dalton, who continuously shows the ability to make clutch plays in the fourth quarter. Dalton had a rough outing against the Steelers in their previous matchup (15-of-30, 170 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs), but A.J. Green got hurt in the first half and was able to make only one reception. Having Green healthy would obviously really benefit the rookie quarterback.

Dalton will have to beat the Steelers without a strong rushing attack by his side. Cedric Benson was limited to just 57 rushing yards against Pittsburgh’s vaunted front four weeks ago.

RECAP: With Roethlisberger’s ailing thumb and Polamalu’s shaky status, the Steelers definitely aren’t 100 percent. Marvin Lewis’ teams typically play well as underdogs, so I expect the Bengals to cover the spread.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 59% (33,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Steelers have won 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Bengals are 16-6 ATS against the Steelers if they lost to them previously the same season in the last 22 instances.

Bengals are 17-7 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Steelers are 24-9 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Ben Roethlisberger is 26-14 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Opening Line: Steelers -7.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Steelers 17, Bengals 16
Bengals +7 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Steelers 35, Bengals 7
MISSING

New York Jets (6-5) at Washington Redskins (4-7)
Line: Jets by 3. Total: 38.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Jets -6.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Jets -4.5.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

Some random college football notes I couldn’t post anywhere else:

1. I’m done with college football. I hate it. To help you understand my frustration, here’s a conversation I had with my friend Dale this past Saturday:

Dale: Do you know the score of the Penn State-Wisconsin game?

Me: Nope.

Dale: Why not?

Me: I don’t care.

Dale: You have no interest at all?

Me: No. I’m done with college football. I just don’t care anymore.

Dale: Why?

Me: It’s so f***ing stupid. Houston’s undefeated. The a**holes who are against having a playoff always say that the regular season is a playoff. So, LSU and Houston should play in the championship if that’s the case. All Houston does every week is win 70-10, yet they don’t get a f***ing chance because of money. It’s only about money with those greedy a**holes. Well, f*** them. I’m f***ing done with college football.

Dale: Yeah. Makes sense.

Seriously, if Houston doesn’t play in the national championship, I’m finished with college football until there’s a playoff system, and I urge you all to follow my lead. The only thing I’m going to do is DVR certain games so I can scout players later on, but I won’t watch those games until weeks or months later if I need to.

2. Congrats, Ohio State. You landed Urban Meyer. I’d also like to wish you good luck in your next coaching search 3-4 years from now.

Meyer is such a liar. I’m not going to list all of the lies he told the media because Awful Announcing did a good job of this. If you’re too lazy to click the link though, Meyer repeatedly told everyone over the past month that he wasn’t going to take the Ohio State job. Yet, here we are.

If Meyer lied about that, what else will he lie about? What about his so-called medical problems that prompted him to leave Florida? I don’t know if he was sick or not, but it really sounds like he had a case of Tim-Tebow-Went-To-The-NFL-itis.

Oh, and by the way, according to my former sports journalism professor Mike Poorman, Meyer had 30 Gators arrested in six seasons. So have fun with that, Buckeyes!

3. A college football game I watched about two months ago was that Texas-Oklahoma game that was hyped up for nothing. I wrote this down at the time because it was funny. The Longhorns were getting blown out, and Oklahoma scored a touchdown. It was 33-10. The crowd, however, wasn’t disgruntled because they were chanting, “Block that kick! Block that kick!”

Umm… you need more than a blocked extra point down 23, morons. Maybe they should have chanted, “Landry Jones get Ebola! Landry Jones get Ebola!”

Meh, Texas still wouldn’t have won.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Redskins have quietly really improved defensively in recent weeks. The one change I can find is that they put second-year inside linebacker Perry Riley into the lineup in favor of Rocky McIntosh. Riley has been an absolute stud, especially compared to McIntosh, who was dreadful.

The Jets are going to have issues scoring in this contest. Running the ball will be a problem because the Redskins are just two weeks removed from shutting down DeMarco Murray. Shonn Greene is battling a rib injury, so I highly doubt he’ll come anywhere close to the 6.0 YPC he mustered against the Bills last week.

Mark Sanchez will be under pressure all afternoon. The Redskins have 33 sacks on the year, as Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan have both been dynamic. Sanchez, meanwhile, has taken eight sacks in the previous three contests.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Don’t look now, but Rex Grossman has played well the past two weeks. So, is it time for “Bad Rex” to rear his ugly head? Possibly. I’m sure Rex Ryan will have some chaotic schemes prepared for Grossman, so the over-under on his turnover total probably has to be 3.5.

The good news for Grossman is that he won’t have to deal with much of a pass rush. Aaron Maybin got to Ryan Fitzpatrick twice last week, but Washington’s offensive line has been playing better since Trent Williams returned to the lineup. Williams hasn’t allowed a single sack since the season opener.

Meanwhile, it appears as though Mike Shanahan has finally acknowledged that Roy Helu should be the starting running back. Helu will be a factor in the passing attack, but don’t look for much from him on the ground; the Jets haven’t allowed more than 60 rushing yards to any opponent in the past three weeks.

RECAP: The Redskins are underrated. Prior to beating Seattle, they played within one score of the Cowboys and 49ers. I guess all the people pounding the Jets this week aren’t aware of this.

Washington has a great trend in its favor. Unrested home dogs are 93-46 against the spread off a straight-up road win playing against a team coming off home win.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

No surprise that the public is betting the Jets.

Percentage of money on New York: 80% (73,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Redskins are 8-20 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Opening Line: Jets -3.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Redskins 20, Jets 17
Redskins +3 -125 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$250
Under 38.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jets 34, Redskins 19

Atlanta Falcons (7-4) at Houston Texans (8-3)
Line: Falcons by 1. Total: 38.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Texans -2.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Falcons -1.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Falcons.

If you’ve been following this site, you know that I make a habit of responding to my spam mails. Last week, I posted an e-mail from a Richard Held, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).”

Here was my response, with a reference from my Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexual Heritage Month entry:

Richard Held,

Hello, my name is Matthew Millen Kim. I won your Facebook contest. What a great month and a half this has been. First, I got to celebrate Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexual Heritage Month, and now I won 750,000.00 GBP.

I’m going to assume GBP stands for Green Bay Packers. I would love 750,000.00 Green Bay Packers. Heck, one makes me horny.

1. FULL NAMES: _Matthew Millen Kim____ 2.ADDRESS:__2000 Brush St_____ 3.CITY:__Detroit___
4. STATE: __MI____ 5.POSTCODE___48226____ 6.COUNTRY___USA___
7. SEX: __B____ 8.AGE:____53____ 9.OCCUPATION:__Kielbasa Stuffer____
10. TELEPHONE/MOBILE NUMBERS: __(313) 262-2000___ 11.FAX:___(313) 262-2000_____

Before you enter in my information, is it OK if I only use Facebook for lewd activities like downloading pictures of 100-percent USDA Men and Photoshopping kielbasas in their rear end?

Thanks,

Matthew Millen Kim

In case you were wondering, the address and phone number I gave to them belongs to Ford Field. I wish I could see the look on the Ford Field employees when someone calls up asking for a “Matthew Millen Kim.”

At any rate, I received two responses. One was unbelievably hilarious. I need to show you a screenshot because you wouldn’t believe me otherwise:

The other e-mail asked me to fill out a form. I sent it back to them:

OK, so they wouldn’t be stupid enough to accept that form, right?

Wrong!

I received the following e-mail a day later:

Dear Online Customer; Matthew Millen Kim,

This is to confirm the receipt of your email in this bank. The details of your mail along with the personal data you sent was noted, understood and have been recorded. You are required to pay the sum of �220.00 Pounds Sterling to this bank for our administrative charge. As soon as you make this payment, endeavor to send to us your complete bank account details of the nominated account where you want us to transfer your winning funds to.

You are to follow the below instruction, to make the payment of �220.00 Pounds Sterling;

You are to contact the nearest Western Union Money Transfer Office in your location and make payment to our Chief Account Officer (Mrs. Lindsay Ryan) with the payment details below:

AMOUNT: �220.00 Pounds Sterling equivalent to $355.00 US Dollar.
NAME: Mrs. Lindsay Ryan
ADDRESS: 209, Lower Addiscombe Rd, Croydon, Surrey. CRO 6RB, United Kingdom.

Last week, I asked if anyone reading this lived in or near Croydon to send a picture of the building to me. Many people e-mailed me a Google Maps image and told me it was a bank. E-mailer John L. sent a picture and a detailed description of what happened when he walked into the building and announced himself as Matthew Millen Kim. I’ll post that later.

At any rate, I didn’t check my e-mail for a few days, so they sent me another e-mail, asking the status of my award claims. They asked if I was “experiencing too much delay from the paying bank.” They then told me to contact someone named Loon Bruce, who sounds like a character from the Harry Potter books.

I sent over an e-mail to Loon Bruce:

Hello, my name is Matthew Millen Kim, and I won your Facebook prize.

I am having too much delay from the paying bank. I had the funds recently, but I landed on Park Place with three houses and had to pay the wheelbarrow $1,100.

You do not know how much I hate the wheelbarrow right now. I was planning to pay you guys and spend the excess monies on kielbasa, so I could use it when I invite some football players to my hotel room. Now, I only have $5 remaining with a Get Out of Jail Free card.

How much longer can I have to pay your fee? I am hoping to pass Go soon.

Thank you,

Matthew Millen Kim

As promised, here’s John L’s picture:

And here’s John L’s description of what transpired when he walked in:

I went into the bank with my girlfriend, (the photographer) and just to explain about the English banks, we have automated machines in them, so there is always a host there.

When we went in, I thought I would try my luck by coming up with an elaborate story so I could get a picture of Matthew Millen Kim at a machine or a counter. Well, the host had none of it and politely told us in no uncertain terms to leave and we couldn’t take any pictures, hence taking one from across the street.

In pleading to take a picture in the bank, the story I came up with was that Matthew Millen Kim was an eccentric recluse and we were taking pictures of him all over London for a charity fundraiser. I thought, the more obscure, the more likely they would believe it.

The host said she could not allow any pictures at all. At this point I asked her if she had any kielbasa. She had no idea what I was talking about and my girlfriend said, “stop right there” (she’s heard me talk about some of the stories off of your site). The host wanted to know what kielbasa was and I told her that is what Matthew Millen Kim was famous for, but also the reason he became a recluse!

We left at that point and the host harassed us outside the bank, so we crossed the road and got you the picture I sent yesterday.

Very strange that the people in this building wouldn’t know of Matthew Millen Kim when he’s due such a huge sum of money!

Some e-mailers have suggested that I should pay the “$355.00 US Dollar” to see what happens. I think I’m going to send over $355 in Monopoly money to get their reaction. Maybe I can print out fake Millen money. Anyone want to guess what’s on the $100 bill?

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Poor Texans. Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart are both out for the year, so they have to sign either Jeff Garcia or Jake Delhomme to play behind T.J. Yates. And this had to happen the year the Colts weren’t a factor.

I liked what I saw out of Yates in the two-minute drill just prior to halftime last week. He made good decisions and had some nice throws. I don’t know what happened after intermission because Houston mustered just one first down, but perhaps it was Yates just not prepared enough to play.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Yates played well in this contest. The Falcons are pretty mediocre against aerial attacks, and their pedestrian pass rush (20 sacks) likely won’t touch Yates, who is well protected. Besides, even though Atlanta has a top-five run defense, it still has to respect Arian Foster, so Yates will have his opportunities.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Everyone assumes the Falcons will win this game because they have a huge edge with Matt Ryan over Yates. While you can’t dispute the talent level of the two quarterbacks in relation to one another, it is at least somewhat conceivable that Yates could outplay Ryan.

No, I’m not crazy. The Texans have the best defense in football. They limit opposing quarterbacks to a 6.0 YPA, and they haven’t surrendered more than 200 passing yards since Week 6 (Baltimore coming off a bye). Their pass rush is unbelievable, even without Mario Williams. Second-year Connor Barwin, and rookies J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed are too much for most teams to handle. The Falcons have issues up front, so expect Houston to notch a few sacks.

Ryan won’t have the luxury of leaning on a reliable ground attack either. The Texans have limited every team to 95 rushing yards or fewer since that aforementioned Week 6 contest at Baltimore.

RECAP: The public is all over the Falcons, but I really like Houston for a number of reasons:

1. I love betting on good teams without their starting quarterback in their first game. Sure, this is the second contest in which the Texans will be without Matt Schaub, but it’s the first that Yates will start. Houston’s veterans know that they’ll have to bring 110 percent to support their rookie signal-caller. The Falcons, meanwhile, have to believe that they won’t have much difficulty against Yates.

2. The trend I listed for the Redskins can also be applied to Houston: Unrested home dogs are 93-46 against the spread off a straight-up road win playing against a team coming off home win.

3. Here’s an even better one going against Atlanta: Road favorites coming off standard rest after two consecutive wins as home favorites are just 13-41 against the spread since 1995.

4. As mentioned earlier, there’s a ton of action on the Falcons. Vegas is coming off a bad weekend, so even if there is some sort of conspiracy theory to kill sharp bettors this year, the sportsbooks have to make their money back at some point, right?

The Psychology. Edge: Texans.

I imagine that the Texans will give 110 percent now that they’re down to their third quarterback.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Anyone want to bet on T.J. Yates?

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 81% (72,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Texans are 21-31 ATS after a win (15-15 since 2007).

Opening Line: Texans -1.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Texans 24, Falcons 20
Texans +1 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 38 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 17, Falcons 10

Carolina Panthers (3-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7)
Line: Panthers by 2. Total: 46.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Buccaneers -6.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Buccaneers -5.5.

Sunday, Dec. 4, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: My friend Nick from high school and college visited me this past Saturday with his fiancee. She told me I should check out a stunt Jimmy Kimmel pulled on his show, where he asked all the parents to tell their kids that they ate their Halloween candy.

The result was hilarious. I’m sure many of you have seen it, but since this was the first time I watched it, I imagine that some of you haven’t heard about it until now.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Carolina’s defense is epically bad. The unit ranks 29th against the run (5.0 YPC), dead last versus aerial attacks (8.4 YPA) and in the bottom 10 of sacks accumulated (21). Their tackling is atrocious, and the fact that they let Curtis Painter engineer two potential game-tying drives in the fourth quarter last week is an embarrassment.

If Painter can move the chains against the Panthers, I think Josh Freeman should be able to as well. Freeman has struggled with his decision-making this year, but has improved somewhat the past two weeks. He’ll torch Carolina’s anemic secondary.

Of course, Freeman may not need to throw much with LeGarrette poised for a huge performance. Blount has been dominant in his previous two outings, and won’t face much resistance from a Carolina stop unit that has surrendered at least 100 rushing yards in every game since Week 7.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: OK, so I’ve made it clear that the Panther defense is trash. Well, the Buccaneers aren’t any better. They’re 26th against the run (4.8 YPC), 30th versus the pass (8.1 YPA) and third-worst at getting to the quarterback (17 sacks). The problem has been Gerald McCoy’s absence. Tampa was 3-1 with its best player, but just 1-6 after he suffered a torn bicep.

Like Freeman, Cam Newton will have every opportunity to do whatever he wants to in this contest. The only question is whether or not he’ll commit any turnovers. Newton had been really sloppy going into last week’s game, but actually took care of the football at Indianapolis.

The Panther ground attack will also be effective. Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams combined for 139 rushing yards on 25 attempts last week. They’ll pick up where they left off.

RECAP: This is a non-play for me. I refuse to lay points with a Buccaneer team that is in complete disarray, but I can’t bet the Panthers either because this is their third-consecutive road game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
Slight lean on the visitor.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 61% (42,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

History: Buccaneers have won the last 2 meetings.

Buccaneers are 5-15 ATS at home under Raheem Morris.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Panthers 26, Buccaneers 23
Panthers -2 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Panthers 38, Buccaneers 19

Denver Broncos (6-5) at Minnesota Vikings (2-9)
Line: Pick. Total: 37.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Vikings -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Vikings -1.5.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

Bo-Bo has retired, so as promised, here’s the NFL.com Fantasy Draft – Round 3:

Rich Eisen: Welcome back to Round 3. When we left off, Jim Mora Jr. asked to see Dennis Green’s cheat sheet so he could make his pick.

Jim Mora Jr.: Uhh…

Dennis Green: Don’t f***ing do it, Jim. Don’t f***ing test me.

Jim Mora Jr.: I’ll take Anquan Boldin.

Dennis Green: NOOOOOOO!!! F*** YOU, JIM. I’M GOING TO F***ING SNEAK INTO YOUR HOUSE, RAPE YOUR F***ING DOGS AND STEAL YOUR F***ING TVS!

Matt Millen: While you’re there, can you steal some kielbasa for me? I’m running low, and Calvin Johnson is supposed to come to my hotel room in a few days.

Dennis Green: F*** YOU AND YOUR F***ING KIELBASA!

Matt Millen: How dare you, Dennis? How dare you? I just… I can’t believe you said that, Dennis. I thought you were a dear friend. Now I see you for the kielbasa-hating craven that you are.

Dennis Green: I DON’T GIVE A F*** ABOUT BEING YOUR F***ING FRIEND! I WANT ANQUAN F***ING BOLDIN ON MY F***ING TEAM!

Rich Eisen: Well, too bad Dennis. Jim Mora Jr. took him fair and square right off your cheat sheet. Jim, you have one more pick. Are you going to take another five hours to make your pick again?

Jim Mora Jr.: Uhh…

Rich Eisen: I’ll take that as a yes.

Jim Mora Jr.: Uhh…

Marshall Faulk: Is it my turn yet? I’ll take Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense.

Charles Davis: Great pick, Marshall!

Rich Eisen: No, you’re not up for another seven picks.

Jim Mora Jr.: Hey, Dennis, should I take Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense?

Dennis Green: What are you a f***ing idi… I mean, yes! That’s who I have next on my cheat sheet. How did you ever know!? You should take them!

Jim Mora Jr.: Uhh… I don’t know, man…

Dennis Green: What’s not to know? They have great players, and WalterFootball.com even says they can go to the Super Bowl!

Jim Mora Jr.: Uhh… I don’t know, man… uhh… who do they play in Week 1?

Dennis Green: The Lions! They stink!

Matt Millen: Not cool, Dennis. Not cool. First, kielbasa; now the Lions. Why do you insult everything I love and cherish?

Dennis Green: Because you’re a f***ing mustachioed idiot.

Jim Mora Jr.: Uhh… I don’t know, man…

Dennis Green: Jim, think about it. Look who’s defending the Lions. Millen is a world-class f***-up. I guarantee the Bucs will score 500 points for you in Week 1.

Jim Mora Jr.: Uhh… I don’t know, man… If they don’t, can I get Larry Fitzgerald from you in a trade for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense?

Dennis Green: Jim, I don’t have Fitzgerald. Steve Mariucci stole him from me. But if I did, believe me, I’d give him to you. That’s how confident I am that Tampa will score 500 points in Week 1.

Steve Mariucci: Oh geez… oh geez… oh boy… oh golly… woo boy…

Rich Eisen: What is it, Steve? Are you saying you want to give Larry Fitzgerald back to Dennis? That’s mighty generous of you.

Dennis Green: I get Larry!? F*** yes!

Rich Eisen: But remember, Dennis. If the Buccaneers don’t score 500 points in Week 1, you have to trade Fitzgerald to Jim for Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense.

Dennis Green: NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!! AHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Rich Eisen: Let’s take a break until Dennis is done having an aneurysm. Stay tuned next week for Round 4. This draft will never end.

DENVER OFFENSE: All the Broncos do is run the ball. The Vikings rank sixth against the run (3.7 YPC). Advantage Minnesota, right?

I don’t think it’s that easy. It’s really difficult to stop Denver’s rushing attack because in addition to tackling Willis McGahee, teams have to stay honest against Tim Tebow. Besides, the Vikings are just two weeks removed from surrendering 147 rushing yards against the Raiders, so it’s not inconceivable that Denver could have luck on the ground.

Even if the Broncos struggle to rush the ball, they might still be able to move the chains. Minnesota’s secondary is an absolute mess right now, so Tim Tebow could have some success airing it out. For the doubters, Tebow had 320 passing yards in a game last year, so he’s capable of having a good passing performance. He’s also shown improvement this season; he went 9-of-18 for 143 yards and a touchdown at San Diego. That completion percentage isn’t very good, but you have to like his 7.9 YPA.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: I’m a huge Tebow fan, but McGahee was right in telling reporters that it’s not just Tebow for the 5-1 record. Denver’s defense has been amazing in the past month-and-a-half.

The Broncos put immense pressure on the quarterback. They have 30 sacks on the year, including 10 in the past three weeks. This is terrible news for Christian Ponder, as Minnesota’s offensive line has surrendered more sacks than anyone except for the Rams, Cardinals and Seahawks. Maybe the Vikings should request a transfer into the NFC West.

Minnesota won’t be able to run the ball either. That would obviously not be the case if Adrian Peterson were able to play, but the NFL Network’s Jason La Canfora heard that Peterson won’t suit up for this contest. Toby Gerhart stinks.

RECAP: There’s no spread on this game yet because of Peterson’s status, so I can’t give you a concrete pick. I’m going to take the Broncos; it’s just a matter of how many units depending on what the line is. Check back later in the week.

LINE POSTED: Go Tim Tebow.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

People are finally on the Tim Tebow bandwagon. Or maybe they’re just fading Minnesota.

Percentage of money on Denver: 78% (67,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Broncos are 9-19 ATS vs. the NFC since 2003.

Opening Line: Vikings -1.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Broncos 20, Vikings 17
Broncos PK (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 37.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 35, Dolphins 32

Indianapolis Colts (0-11) at New England Patriots (8-3)
Line: Patriots by 20. Total: 48.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Patriots -20.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Patriots -20.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

As a reminder, get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2011 NFL Survivor Pool. There are now only 6 entries remaining from the 2,749 that started. Only one person lost last week. That individual picked the Colts for some strange reason. Perhaps crack was involved.

Also, you can create your own 2012 NFL Mock Draft. If it’s good and the write-ups make factual/logical sense, it can be featured in the 2012 NFL Mock Draft Database.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I’ll make this quick. The Patriots will score early on. Then they’ll score some more around halftime. And then Brian Hoyer will score at the end. Sound good?

I mean, I don’t really know what to say. The Colts are inept defensively. Their cornerbacks are atrocious. Tom Brady could probably throw for 300 yards blindfolded.

The Patriots will be able to run the ball if they want to. Indianapolis couldn’t stop DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart last week, so BenJarvus Green-Ellis should have a solid outing if he gets the carries. I think this would be a good opportunity for Bill Belichick to try Shane Vereen and/or Stevan Ridley, however.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: New England’s defensive issues have been well-documented. However, there are two reasons why the Colts won’t be able to score much.

First, the Patriot stop unit has improved ever since Jerod Mayo came back from injury. They limited the Giant and Jet offenses to 14 points each, and they did a good job against the Chiefs and Eagles in the past two weeks.

And second, Dan Orlovsky, like Curtis Painter, absolutely stinks. Maybe he’ll complete some passes to Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon, but he’ll also toss a decent amount of picks. Maybe Julian Edelman will catch one. Or perhaps Orlovsky will step out of the back of the end zone again. That would be fun.

RECAP: I’ve been asked if this is the highest point spread ever. No, it’s not. The 49ers were -23.5 over the Bengals in 1993. They won but didn’t cover, 21-8.

In fact, there have been nine teams prior to this contest favored by 20 or more since 1989. They are a collective 2-7 against the spread in those situations.

So, am I taking the Colts? Not a chance. They could go down as the worst team in NFL history. I actually think this spread is too low. I would have made New England -24.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

This line so high, yet the public still likes the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 75% (54,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Colts are 44-31 ATS on the road since 2002.

Patriots are 21-11 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Tom Brady is 129-43 as a starter (101-67 ATS).

Opening Line: Patriots -21.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Patriots 52, Colts 10
Patriots -20 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 31, Colts 24

Week 13 NFL Picks – Late Games
Ravens at Browns, Packers at Giants, Rams at 49ers, Cowboys at Cardinals, Lions at Saints, Chargers at Jaguars

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 13 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)