NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2010

NFL Picks (Preseason 2010): 9-6-1 (+$680)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2010): 8-7-1 (-$15)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2010): 7-8-1 (-$170)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2010): 10-6 (+$1,430)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2010): 7-7 (+$1,075)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2010): 8-6 (+$260)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2010): 4-9-1 (-$1,865)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2010): 8-6 (+$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2010): 7-6 (+$520)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2010): 6-5-2 (+$1,050)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2010): 6-7-1 (+$780)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2010): 8-8 (-$480)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2010): 9-7 (+$1,840)

NFL Picks (2010): 97-88-6 (+$6,185)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 6, 4:10 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 13 NFL Picks – Early Games

Oakland Raiders (5-6) at San Diego Chargers (6-5)
Line: Chargers by 13. Total: 44.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Chargers -10.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Chargers -11.
Sunday, Dec. 5, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Chargers.

If you’ve been following my 2010 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you’re wondering which players to start, I’ve got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings, which will be posted by Wednesday evening.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Chargers are on fire again in December? I am so shocked. Philip Rivers was brilliant at Indianapolis, connecting on all 11 of his pass attempts in the second half despite losing Vincent Jackson to a calf “injury” in the first quarter. Rivers continues to demonstrate why he’s the leading MVP candidate this year; he just gets it done despite the lacking supporting cast.

Jackson will be out again, but Malcom Floyd and Antonio Gates will both be a week healthier. Nnamdi Asomugha, meanwhile, is not a 100 percent, as Chad Henne picked on him last week. Rivers could do the same thing this Sunday.

Of course, Rivers may not have to throw the ball at all; the Raiders are 26th versus the rush, and Mike Tolbert – not Ryan Mathews – is looking like he’s the back who was chosen No. 12 overall in the 2010 NFL Draft.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Chargers seem to allow an opening drive for a touchdown each week before completely clamping down on the opposing offense. Based on how the Raiders are playing right now, they may not even find the end zone once in this contest.

Bruce Gradkowski is out, which means that Jason Campbell will be the starting quarterback once again. Campbell will be under constant pressure; the Raiders surrender the third-most sacks in the NFL, while the Chargers have the most sacks this year (33).

Campbell won’t have much support from his ground attack. Darren McFadden is not running like he used to earlier in the year, and the Chargers are fifth versus the rush in terms of YPC. They’ve limited their previous two opponents to just 83 yards on 27 carries.

RECAP: The Chargers should be able to continue their December rampage with yet another blowout.

I’m keeping this to one unit, however. There are no situational angles here, and I hate laying double digits.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
Everyone is piling onto the San Diego bandwagon.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 62% (80,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Chargers have won 13 of the last 14 meetings.

Raiders are 10-3 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008.

Philip Rivers is 16-9 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30.

Opening Line: Chargers -13.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 66 degrees. Light wind.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Chargers 38, Raiders 10
Chargers -13 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 28, Chargers 13

Carolina Panthers (1-10) at Seattle Seahawks (5-6)
Line: Seahawks by 6. Total: 40.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Seahawks -9.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Seahawks -9.

Sunday, Dec. 5, 4:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: Panthers.

We are running our NFL Picking Contest again on our sister site, DraftDebacled.com. It’s free to enter, and there are monthly prizes ($75 for the winner, $25 for second place), so click on the link to sign up.

I’ve also gotten a lot of requests for this, so you can now see every NFL team’s spread record this year, as well as the opposition’s winning percentage and ATS margin.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: I said it in my NFL Power Rankings – it’s crazy to say this, but the Seahawks need Mike Williams in the lineup to score consistently. Whenever Williams has been out or injured, Seattle hasn’t been able to do anything on offense. But considering that the team’s best playmakers outside of Williams are Ben Obomanu and Marshawn Lynch, I guess that’s not too surprising.

Bad news for the Seahawks – Williams probably won’t be able to play this week. Pete Carroll told the media that the team doctors found that there wasn’t much improvement regarding Williams’ foot. Carroll is a compulsive liar, but Williams’ injury is an ugly one. It’ll be surprising if he suits up.

With no Williams, Seattle will struggle to score yet again. Lynch can’t do anything on the ground – kudos to the Packers for not trading for that bum – while Hasselbeck won’t be able to keep drives alive by throwing to the likes of Obomanu and Deon Butler in long-yardage situations.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: While Seattle’s ground attack is stuck in the mud, the Panthers are finally moving the chains on the ground. Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson combined for 153 rushing yards on 26 carries against the Browns last week.

Cleveland is 21st versus the run, and while Seattle is only slightly better statistically (20th), the Seahawks haven’t played well against the rush since losing Colin Cole and Red Bryant. Stewart and Goodson will pick up right where they left off last week.

With Carolina’s running game working, Jimmy Clausen should be able to move the chains in manageable down-and-distance situations. Clausen had a pretty up-and-down performance against the Browns last week. Expect more of the same against the Seahawks, who have failed to record a sack in three of their previous four contests.

RECAP: I took the Panthers for three units last week, and I’m going to do the same thing here. There are three reasons I like Carolina:

1. As mentioned in an earlier game, teams tend to cover in an underdog role when playing in their second-consecutive away contest. John Fox is 5-3 against the spread in this situation.

2. On a related note, a good betting situation is to take road underdogs who have lost three or more games in a row. Teams in that dynamic tend to cover the spread at about a 60-percent clip.

3. The Seahawks are what I call a false favorite; teams fare poorly against the spread when favored after two or more consecutive losses.

LOCKED IN: Get this line at +6 if you plan on betting Carolina.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

No one wants to bet on the Panthers just yet.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 75% (76,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

John Fox is 7-2 ATS on the West Coast.

Seahawks are 12-4 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Matt Hasselbeck is 11-4 ATS off back-to-back losses.

Opening Line: Seahawks -6.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Cloudy, 45 degrees. Light wind.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Seahawks 23, Panthers 20
Panthers +6 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 40 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 31, Panthers 14

St. Louis Rams (5-6) at Arizona Cardinals (3-8)
Line: Rams by 3.5. Total: 44.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Cardinals -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Pick.

Sunday, Dec. 5, 4:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: Rams.

If you’re still alive, get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2010 NFL Survivor Pool. There are 59 entries remaining out of 1,972.

You can also create your own 2011 NFL Mock Draft on DraftDebacled.com, and if the write-ups are sound enough (and grammatically and factually correct), your mock could be featured in the 2011 NFL Mock Draft Database.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Derek Anderson’s post-game drunken tirade was incredible. I couldn’t have asked for anything more. Feel free to insert your own “Anderson was too drunk to remember laughing with his teammate” joke here.

What’s really a joke though is that Anderson is being allowed to start yet again for the Cardinals. Why is he even on the team after blowing a .3 after the game? Why does Ken Whisenhunt think a drunken quarterback gives him the best chance to win? And why is John Skelton out buying beer for Anderson instead of starting for Arizona?

The Rams bring tons of pressure. They’re tied for fourth in the NFL with 31 sacks. Arizona, meanwhile, allows the second-most sacks (36). St. Louis also plays well against the run, so this could be much more embarrassing for the Cardinals than their Monday night performance was.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Sam Bradford is so good that the Rams will be a Super Bowl contender next year. He became the first rookie quarterback to throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns in a road victory last week. And considering his pedestrian supporting cast, that feat is even more impressive.

The Cardinals are 24th against the pass in terms of YPA, so Bradford will pick up where he left off. In his second game back from injury, rookie receiver Danario Alexander could have a huge game.

Bradford will also have more support from Steven Jackson this time around. The Broncos, who are decent against the run, limited Jackson and the Rams to 76 yards on 31 carries last week. The Cardinals, as you saw on Monday night, can’t stop the rush whatsoever.

RECAP: Despite having three wins, the Cardinals are the worst team in the NFL. Their quarterback is drunk, their running game is non-existent, their offensive line is horrendous and their defense is ranked near the bottom of every category.

The Rams, meanwhile, are red-hot. I’ve been on them all year; I’ve picked them to cover the spread every single time since Week 2, and they’ve only failed me twice.

I’m going with St. Louis again – this time for three units. The pathetic Cardinals are coming off a Monday night blowout loss; teams in this situation are 16-33 against the spread since 1999.

LOCKED IN: If you can get this line at -3, do it. Don’t wait for it to jump up to -3.5.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Bettors want nothing to do with Arizona.

Percentage of money on St. Louis: 81% (89,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

History: Cardinals have won the last 8 meetings.

Monday Night Misery: Teams coming off a loss of 17+ points on MNF are 16-33 ATS the following week since 1999.

Rams are 27-41 ATS in road games since 2001 (8-5 since 2009).

Rams are 18-27 ATS on grass since 2001.

Cardinals are 18-6 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Cardinals are 11-3 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 under Ken Whisenhunt.

Opening Line: Rams -3.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Rams 27, Cardinals 10
Rams -3.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Rams 19, Cardinals 6

Dallas Cowboys (3-8) at Indianapolis Colts (6-5)
Line: Colts by 5. Total: 48.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Colts -9.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Colts -7.
Sunday, Dec. 5, 4:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: Colts.

Another friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Nov. 29, 2010 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) QB Dog Killer Supporters. 2) Canned Laughter. 3) Fancy-Shmancy Downtown Places.

Also, in this week’s edition of Emmitt on the Brink, Emmitt returns to the Patriots after a month-long absence.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: “Peyton Manning can’t do it by himself anymore.” “The Colts are finished.” “Factor back! Factor back!!!”

These are some of the comments heard on ESPN recently. The Colts just lost at home by the largest margin in the Peyton Manning era, so naturally, ESPN overreacted to it. This has brought the point spread down, setting up an ideal betting situation on Indianapolis.

And don’t worry about Manning’s lacking supporting cast. The reinforcements are coming. Austin Collie’s situation has improved, and he might be able to play this week. Mike Hart will also be back, giving Indianapolis a nice boost in the running game against Dallas’ 22nd-ranked rush defense.

Manning will be fine. He always struggles against the Chargers. And the Cowboys don’t exactly have the best secondary in the league, ranking 28th versus the pass in terms of YPA.

DALLAS OFFENSE: It’s not often that an injury to a starter can be beneficial to a team, but Marion Barber’s bum calf opens the door for the superior Tashard Choice. Conventional wisdom says Choice and Felix Jones should run right over Indianapolis’ last-ranked ground defense.

However, that may not be the case. The Colts will also have linebackers Gary Brackett and Clint Session back from injury. Brackett in particular will be a huge factor in terms of helping the team stop the run.

The Cowboys will need their ground attack to work in order to keep Jon Kitna out of third-and-long situations. If Kitna has the luxury of operating in short-yardage downs, he’ll move the chains efficiently with all of his weapons. If not, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis will feast on him.

RECAP: As mentioned earlier, we’re getting great line value with the Colts. Thanks to ESPN, this spread has dropped 2-3 points.

Want another reason to take Indianapolis? Well, the Colts just lost the spread by 25 points. Teams favored after doing so are 35-15 against the number. And if you’re wondering, Indianapolis is 2-0 ATS in this dynamic since 2002.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

The public still likes the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 80% (96,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Colts are 19-11 ATS vs. the NFC since 2002.

Opening Line: Colts -5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Retractable roof.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Colts 27, Cowboys 17
Colts -5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 38, Colts 35

Atlanta Falcons (9-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4)
Line: Falcons by 3. Total: 43.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Falcons -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Falcons -2.5.
Sunday, Dec. 5, 4:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: Falcons.

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com’s GameCenter and my thoughts on them:

1. “ILL F*** YA MOTHER AND SISTER AND DAUGHTER AND GRTANDMTOHER AND COUSINS AND W/E I CAN F*** OF URS 6 RINGS HAHAHAH”

You really want to bang this guy’s grandmother? That’s pretty kinky.

2. “JOE FLOCCO HAS NO RINGS AND THATS BECAUSE HE LIKES DING A LING”

Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

3. “I GUESS UR RIGHT THESE TEAMS AINT GOOD BUT THE RAIDERS RUSHING IS 2ND IN DA LEUGE BETTER THAN THE STEELERS AND MIAMIA D COULD HURT BIG BEN MORE THEN WHEN THAT BOY FELL OF DA MOTERCICLE!!”

Based on your spelling, I’d say you’ve fallen off your fair share of “motercicles.”

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Matt Ryan has definitely lived up to his Matty Ice nickname in his brief career thus far. As long as he’s in a dome, that is. I currently have the Falcons No. 9 in my NFL Power Rankings because I need to see Atlanta win a tough outdoor contest. The last time the Falcons played a good team outdoors, they embarrassed themselves at Philadelphia.

Are the Buccaneers a tough team though? Considering that they’re tied for dead last with the Colts in run defense (YPC), I’d say no.

The Falcons rushed for 122 yards on 29 carries the last time they battled Tampa Bay. I expect similar numbers this time, which will set up Ryan with play-action and short-yardage opportunities. Tampa Bay’s secondary just lost Cody Grimm, a rookie who had been playing brilliantly for the suspended Tanard Jackson at free safety. Grimm’s absence will make things even easier for Ryan.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: In a Week 9 battle against the Falcons, Josh Freeman went 11-of-22 for 189 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Freeman absolutely needs to play better to help his team achieve its first victory over a winning team this year.

While Atlanta certainly has holes in its secondary, the challenge for Freeman will be consistently moving the chains without a running game. The Falcons rank ninth versus the rush; the last time they surrendered more than 100 yards on the ground was back in Week 6.

Fortunately for Freeman, Atlanta’s pass rush has been lacking in recent weeks. The Falcons have accumulated just four sacks in their previous four games, so the loss of guard Davin Joseph won’t hurt too much.

RECAP: The Falcons don’t play well outdoors, but the Buccaneers aren’t exactly stalwarts at home. In fact, they’re just 2-10 against the spread at the New Sombrero under Raheem Morris.

I don’t have a strong feel for this game, but I would lean toward Atlanta. I don’t think the Falcons are an elite squad, but the fact that the Buccaneers have zero victories over winning teams really bothers me.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Big game in the NFC South.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

No one believes Tampa can pull this off.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 79% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

History: Home Team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Buccaneers are 1-6 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Buccaneers are 2-10 ATS at home under Raheem Morris.

Opening Line: Falcons -3.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Possible showers, 60 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Falcons 23, Buccaneers 17
Falcons -3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcons 28, Buccaneers 24

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) at Baltimore Ravens (8-3)
Line: Ravens by 3. Total: 38.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Ravens -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Ravens -3.
Sunday, Dec. 5, 8:20 ET
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The Game. Edge: Steelers.

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter (all from the same guy):

1. “wants we blew out a team 48 to 0”

That might be the worst misspelling of “once” in the history of the English language.

2. “its eather going to be a close game or a blow out like 56 to 3”

Way to go out on a limb there, buddy.

3. “i am not guy you are and shut up dummey”

You are not guy? I assume you’re girl? Or perhaps transsexual?

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens couldn’t score a single point in the second half of the Tampa Bay game. The loss of Michael Oher really hurt. Fortunately for them, it appears as though Oher will play.

But don’t think that means Baltimore will find the end zone often. The Steelers still have an elite defense capable of shutting down the Ravens’ offense. In their previous meeting, Pittsburgh restricted Ray Rice and Willis McGahee to just 66 yards on 24 carries. I expect something similar Sunday night, especially with fullback Le’Ron McClain out.

With no ground attack to speak of, Joe Flacco will have to lead Baltimore’s offense on his own. Considering the fact that he’s taken 13 sacks in the past four weeks, that could be a problem. The only question is how much money James Harrison will be fined for sacking Flacco cleanly.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: While the Steelers rank first against the run in terms of YPC, the Ravens are 15th. Three of their previous four opponents have gained more than four yards per carry, including LeGarrette Blount and Mike Goodson.

With that in mind, Ben Roethlisberger should have an easier job moving the chains by converting manageable third downs. The Ravens are tough to throw against – they are second versus the pass (YPA) – but Big Ben has always had success against this defense. In his previous four starts versus Baltimore, Roethlisberger is a combined 69-of-130 for 951 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions.

RECAP: I love the Steelers this week. This is a five-unit selection for the following five reasons:

1. Roethlisberger owns Flacco. Baltimore has beaten Pittsburgh twice in the past two years, but Big Ben was missing on both occasions. When the two quarterbacks have actually clashed, Roethlisberger is 4-0 versus Flacco.

2. Speaking of Roethlisberger, it’s rare that he finds himself in an underdog role. He’s 13-7 against the spread as a dog – 4-2 ATS since 2008. The last time Big Ben played at Baltimore, he won, 13-9, as a three-point underdog.

3. A trend I brought up twice before works here as well – underdogs in their second-consecutive road game tend to cover at a high rate.

4. ESPN and the national media has played up Pittsburgh’s injuries, but not Baltimore’s; the Ravens will be missing McClain, their only fullback. Right guard Chris Chester could be out again. And who knows how healthy Oher really is? People who are fading the Steelers just because of their injuries are being ignorant.

5. Even if the Ravens win this game, I can’t see it being by much more than three points. These games are always close. The past seven Baltimore-Pittsburgh battles have been decided by: 3, 3, 3, 9, 4, 3 and 6.

LOCKED IN: Make sure you get the Steelers at +3.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
This is for first place in the AFC North.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 60% (114,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Home Team has won 14 of the last 17 meetings.

Ben Roethlisberger is 21-13 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Ben Roethlisberger is 10-5 ATS as a road dog.

Ben Roethlisberger is 13-7 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Ravens -3.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 32 degrees. Mild wind, 18 mph.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Steelers 23, Ravens 20
Steelers +3 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 38.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 13, Ravens 10 MISSING

New York Jets (9-2) at New England Patriots (9-2)
Line: Patriots by 3.5. Total: 44.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Patriots -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Patriots -3.
Monday, Dec. 6, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: Patriots.

It’s Monday Night Football, and unfortunately, we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Emmitt Smith, Herm Edwards, Bob Griese and former Philadelphia Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (a huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew “Maurice Drew-Jones” and Torry Holt “Terry Holt”). Here’s how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt, Griese and Herm were in the booth for this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to New England, home of the evil Patriots who beat my Eagles in the Super Bowl! Tonight, the Patriots take on the Jets to determine the winner of the NFC West. Guys, I don’t care about this game. The bigger issue for me is Mark Sanchez’s sexual preference. I learned recently that Sanchez likes musicals and dresses in women’s clothes. Guys, I don’t know about you, but I’m now uncomfortable around Sanchez. What do you think?

Emmitt: Kenny, you livin in the 50s or 600s. A long time ago, people who like private part in the behind were executed until they could not be executed no more. Now a day, everybody seem to like stuff up the behind.

Reilly: Not me, Emmitt! No wang will ever touch my behind. Unless Tom Brady wants to do that. He’s so dreamy with his beautiful hair. Yeah, Tom Terrific could definitely have his way with me.

Herm: Nothing wrong with that! Nothing! Not a thing! Not that there’s anything wrong with that! Nope! Can’t find anything wrong with that! Can’t do it! Just can’t do it! Won’t do it! Don’t want to do it!

Reilly: Stop it, Herm. You can’t tell me you haven’t thought about Tom Brady seducing you on some deserted island somewhere. Tom and I would wake up at sun rise and pack for the beach. And then he’d lather me up with sun tan lotion, and feed me strawberries. Oh man, oh man.

Griese: Tom Brady is terrific because… uhh…

Reilly: Because of his beautiful, golden hair. Duh!

Emmitt: Karl, you better simmer down before you has an ejection in front of everybody.

Reilly: You’re right, Emmitt. Gotta stop thinking about Tom Brady. OK… OK… Ugh, Mark Sanchez likes men! Ha!

Griese: Mark Sanchez is heterosexually challenged!

Reilly: Yes. Yes! You finally get it, Griese! I could kiss you right now – but I’m not gay, of course.

Herm: But you just…! But you…! You were saying…! You said…! Tom Brady…! Tom Terrific…! Beach…! Sun tan lotion…! Strawberries…! Golden hair…! Not that there’s anything wrong with that!

Reilly: Herm, are you saying that you’re gay? Ha! Herm’s gay everyone! Hahaha! We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: During an interview with Chris Berman on Monday, Darrelle Revis was asked whom he’d cover in this contest. Revis didn’t have any sort of answer for Berman, instead mumbling something about looking at the game film.

That’s the problem for the Jets. Their defense is predicated on blitzing and eliminating the opposing team’s top receivers. But Tom Brady releases the ball so quickly and spreads the wealth around so much that New York just doesn’t seem like it would match up well against this Randy Moss-less version of New England.

In the previous meeting between these teams, Brady had success moving the chains in the first half. Revis suffered an injury, so knowing this, Brady really forced the issue to Moss. The problem – and no one realized this at the time – was that Moss had nothing left in the tank. He has since bounced around to two other teams and has done nothing for the Vikings or Titans.

I really can’t see the Jets slowing down New England’s multi-faceted offense.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Unfortunately for the Patriots, they have to play defense too. They had major issues containing Shaun Hill and mediocre Maurice Morris on Thanksgiving. Maybe Bill Belichick didn’t game plan feverishly for the Lions, but the fact remains that there are some glaring holes on New England’s defense.

However, there are two issues here for the Jets. The first is that they have not run the ball effectively in recent weeks. The Patriots have stopped the rush well since their bye, so I don’t expect much from Shonn Greene or LaDainian Tomlinson on the ground.

Second, Mark Sanchez is so erratic. It’s tough to tell which QB Nacho we’re going to get. Sanchez was brilliant in the games leading up to Thanksgiving, but was horrendous against a skeleton-crew Cincinnati defense. Sanchez’s passes were sailing everywhere. He could have easily tossed three interceptions.

Sanchez really needs to bring his “A” game against the Patriots because Brady and company won’t be punting much.

RECAP: I’m taking the Patriots as another high-unit pick for the following reasons:

1. Doesn’t Belichick strike you as someone who would hold a grudge for a very long time? That could be why he’s undefeated against the spread in same-season divisional revenge games. Belichick is 5-0 ATS in these situations. Belichick has won by 31, 20 and 17 points the last three occasions he has avenged a divisional loss in the same year.

2. Home teams that have won three consecutive games are 26-13 against the spread since 2002 as underdogs or favorites of 1-7 points. This applies to the Patriots, who are 2-0 ATS in this dynamic.

3. I just think the Patriots are more than half a point better than New York. That crazy loss to the Browns threw everyone through a loop. This spread should really be -4.5 or -5.

This is a four-unit selection for me. It would be five units if I could get New England -3. The half-point hook would scare me in the event of a backdoor cover or overtime situation.

LOCKED IN: It looks this line might be headed toward -4. Lock in -3.5 while it’s still available.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
This is probably for homefield advantage in the AFC.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

The public is pounding the host.

Percentage of money on New England: 74% (148,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 12 of the last 15 meetings.

Jets are 11-5 ATS on the road since 2009.

Jets are 7-3 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Patriots are 30-19 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Patriots are 18-10 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Tom Brady is 117-38 as a starter (91-61 ATS).

Bill Belichick is 5-0 ATS in same-season divisional revenge games.

Opening Line: Patriots -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Cloudy, 26 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Jets 17
Patriots -3.5 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 45, Jets 3

Week 13 NFL Picks – Early Games
Texans at Eagles, Saints at Bengals, Bears at Lions, 49ers at Packers, Jaguars at Titans, Broncos at Chiefs, Browns at Dolphins, Bills at Vikings, Redskins at Giants

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline Underdog: Panthers +190 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Moneyline Underdog: Steelers +140 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$140

Small Parlay: Steelers +3, 49ers +9.5, Jaguars +3, Panthers +6, Patriots -3.5 (.5 Units to win 11.3) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2024): 6-7 (-$1,275)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 2-2 (+$65)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 1-3 (-$905)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2024): 6-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2024): -$435

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-25-1, 43.2% (-$1,180)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)