NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2010

NFL Picks (Preseason 2010): 9-6-1 (+$680)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2010): 8-7-1 (-$15)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2010): 7-8-1 (-$170)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2010): 10-6 (+$1,430)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2010): 7-7 (+$1,075)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2010): 8-6 (+$260)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2010): 4-9-1 (-$1,865)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2010): 8-6 (+$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2010): 7-6 (+$520)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2010): 6-5-2 (+$1,050)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2010): 6-7-1 (+$780)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2010): 8-8 (-$480)

NFL Picks (2010): 88-81-6 (+$4,345)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 29, 4:10 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 12 NFL Picks – Early Games

Kansas City Chiefs (6-4) at Seattle Seahawks (5-5)
Line: Chiefs by 2. Total: 44.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Seahawks -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Seahawks -3.

Sunday, Nov. 28, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

If you’ve been following my 2010 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you’re wondering which players to start, I’ve got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings, which will be posted by Wednesday evening.

FYI, this is a short week because of Thanksgiving, so I’ll have my weekly rankings up Wednesday morning for you.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: I really liked the way Matt Hasselbeck played at New Orleans last week. Battling a tough Saints secondary, Hasselbeck did a great job of moving the chains and leading his team into the red zone. Unfortunately, they had to settle for too many field goals. The Marshawn Lynch fumbles didn’t help either.

Hasselbeck’s health and steady improvement is the good news. So is Russell Okung’s play. The Seahawks didn’t allow a single sack last week.

The bad news is that Mike Williams is hurt and may miss some time with a foot injury. Williams has been very impressive this year, and his loss would be a huge blow for Hasselbeck.

It doesn’t help that the running game is anemic. Lynch is an abomination and should be cut (congrats to the Bills, by the way, for stealing a draft pick in that trade.) Justin Forsett is a nice change-of-pace back, but can’t shoulder the load – even against a struggling Chiefs ground defense that has allowed three consecutive teams to gain 100-plus rushing yards.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Speaking of struggling ground defenses, the Seahawks haven’t been too good in this department since losing Red Bryant and Colin Cole. Once in the top five, Seattle is 14th after surrendering 100-plus rushing yards to four of its previous five opponents.

Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones should both go off, setting up manageable situations for Matt Cassel. Seattle’s secondary is an absolute disgrace (1,304 passing yards allowed the past four weeks), so Cassel shouldn’t have any problems finding Dwayne Bowe downfield.

If the Seahawks can put Cassel into third-and-long downs, however, their fierce pass rush should neutralize the Chiefs, who have struggled to protect the quarterback lately.

RECAP: I have to say that I’m pretty confused by this point spread. I consider the Chiefs and Seahawks pretty equal, so I figured the line would be Seattle -3. Maybe -2 at the very least.

The Seahawks are great at home (3-0 SU and ATS with Hasselbeck), while the Chiefs suck on the road (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS). I’m sticking with the host.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

People are all over the Chiefs this week.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 75% (81,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Chiefs are 2-8 ATS as favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Chiefs -1.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Cloudy, 41 degrees. Light wind.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Seahawks 24, Chiefs 16
Seahawks +2 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 42, Seahawks 24

Miami Dolphins (5-5) at Oakland Raiders (5-5)
Line: Raiders by 2.5. Total: 38.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Raiders -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Raiders -3.
Sunday, Nov. 28, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

We are running our NFL Picking Contest again on our sister site, DraftDebacled.com. It’s free to enter, and there are monthly prizes ($75 for the winner, $25 for second place), so click on the link to sign up.

I’ve also gotten a lot of requests for this, so you can now see every NFL team’s spread record this year, as well as the opposition’s winning percentage and ATS margin.

MIAMI OFFENSE: This is the third game on the slate that doesn’t have a spread posted as of Tuesday evening. Unlike the Texans-Titans contest, there’s a legitimate reason for this; both Chad Henne and Brandon Marshall are questionable.

Marshall, who suffered a hamstring injury Thursday night, said he’d do “everything in his power” to play Sunday. Henne, meanwhile, was on the practice field Monday. Seeing as how Henne’s coming off a gruesome knee injury, Tony Sparano may opt to hold him out another week.

The Dolphins need either of those two to play. Tyler Thigpen was horrific against the Bears, showing poor accuracy and absolutely no pocket awareness the entire night. The fact that a skeleton-crew offensive line was “blocking” for him didn’t help, and things don’t get any easier against the Raiders, who are tied for third in the NFL with 29 sacks.

Whether Henne or Thigpen is the quarterback, Miami absolutely needs to be more balanced on offense. Running the ball six times with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams won’t cut it. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, the Raiders have been solid against the run lately, limiting their previous four opponents to fewer than four yards per carry.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Dolphins aren’t the only team with quarterback issues; the Raiders have a dilemma of their own, as Jason Campbell really struggled last week. Campbell “led” the Raiders to three consecutive wins, but isn’t very good. Bruce Gradkowski is the better option, but Tom Cable said he’s sticking with Campbell one more week.

The Raiders struggled to protect both Campbell and Gradkowski last week, surrendering six sacks to the Steelers. The Dolphins have nine sacks in their previous three games, and should pick up right where Pittsburgh left off.

Like Oakland, the Dolphins have done a great job against the run, limiting all but one opponent to fewer than four yards per carry since their Week 5 bye. Darren McFadden will have to duplicate Matt Forte’s Thursday night performance and produce as a pass-catcher out of the backfield to help Oakland move the chains.

RECAP: This is a tough one. The Dolphins could be the right side because they’re coming off a home shutout, while Oakland just endured an emotional loss at Pittsburgh.

However, the Raiders could also be the way to go because they just lost the spread by 25 points, and might be battling Henne; teams that get their starting quarterback back from injury tend to struggle that first game, as they tend to relax.

There is no line on this game, so I can’t really give you any sort of definitive pick. I’ll tentatively take the Dolphins, but that could change later in the week. Make sure you check back soon.

LINE POSTED: The Raiders opened -1 and went up to -2.5. I’m still not sure what to make of this game. I’d lean toward Miami because of the three double-star edges below, but I wouldn’t bet them because of all the conflicting situational trends (Chad Henne coming back doesn’t help.)

The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.

The Raiders are coming off a huge emotional loss. The Dolphins, meanwhile, were embarrassed in front of a national audience.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Tons of early action on the Raiders.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 84% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Teams coming off a home shutout are 19-9 ATS in their next game since 2002 (12-5 if on the road).

Tony Sparano is 15-6 ATS on the road.

Raiders are 17-34 ATS at home the previous 51 instances.

Raiders are 2-9 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Opening Line: Raiders -1.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: Sunny, 55 degrees. Light wind.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Raiders 17, Dolphins 16
Dolphins +2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 38 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Dolphins 33, Raiders 17

St. Louis Rams (4-6) at Denver Broncos (3-7)
Line: Broncos by 4. Total: 44.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Broncos -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Broncos -4.
Sunday, Nov. 28, 4:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: Rams.

If you’re still alive, get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2010 NFL Survivor Pool. There are 59 entries remaining out of 1,972.

You can also create your own 2011 NFL Mock Draft on DraftDebacled.com, and if the write-ups are sound enough (and grammatically and factually correct), your mock could be featured in the 2011 NFL Mock Draft Database.

We’ll have our 2011 NFL Mock Draft contest available as soon as the regular season is over, so that’ll be another opportunity for you to win money. Stay tuned.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: I was deeply saddened to see Sam Bradford toss that shovel-pass interception at the 2-yard line against the Falcons for two reasons. First, it cost me three units. And second, it ruined what was an otherwise great afternoon for the rookie quarterback. Bradford went 27-of-42 for 233 yards, two touchdowns against the Falcons.

Bradford should be able to pick up where he left off against the Broncos. Denver has absolutely no pass rush (14 sacks on the year) and a horrific secondary, featuring Brian Dawkins, who’s playing like he’s 50 years old right now.

Steven Jackson, meanwhile, will do plenty of damage on the ground. The Broncos, ranking 24th versus the run, looked pathetic trying to tackle Mike Tolbert on Monday night.

DENVER OFFENSE: Amid fending off an angry Matt Millen during the Monday Night Football telecast, Steve Young brought up a great point about Kyle Orton – he can be very good if he has ample protection. Take that away from him, and he can’t do anything.

The Rams have thrived at getting to the quarterback this year. They’re tied for fifth in the NFL with 28 sacks, including 18 in their previous five games. Orton once again won’t have any time to locate Brandon Lloyd and his other receivers downfield.

St. Louis has also done a great job defending the run. Since Week 4, the team has yielded 3.9 yards per carry to the opposition. The Falcons mustered 130 rushing yards on 30 attempts last week, but most of that came on a late Michael Turner 39-yard touchdown when the game was well in hand and the effort wasn’t 100 percent.

RECAP: The Rams are one of my four-unit picks. Here’s why:

1. This line insinuates that the Broncos are one point better than St. Louis. Considering the fact that I have St. Louis higher in my NFL Power Rankings, I completely disagree with this spread. It should be Denver -1 or -1.5 at the very most, so we’re getting tons of value with the visitor.

2. Did Vegas set the line a couple of points high because the Rams aren’t as good on the road? Maybe. But St. Louis is 3-1 against the spread in a visiting role this season, with three losses coming by 1, 2 and 3 points.

3. Just like the Colts loss was the end of the Bengals, the defeat at the hands of the Chargers marked the end of the 2010 Broncos. Josh McDaniels and his players put a lot of stock into that Monday night game, but proved to be no match for a superior San Diego squad. It’ll be really tough for Denver to rebound off that loss.

4. Speaking of the San Diego game, the Broncos were blown out. Teams that lose by 17-plus points on Monday night often struggle the following week (see record below). McDaniels suffered a huge loss to Pittsburgh on a Monday night last year, and saw his team get clobbered by a crappy Redskins team six days later.

LOCK IN: If you want to bet the Rams, do it now. Don’t wait because the line may fall to 3.5.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.

At 3-7, Denver’s season is officially over. Coming off an emotional loss to San Diego will be tough.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

The public likes the Rams.

Percentage of money on St. Louis: 65% (77,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Monday Night Misery: Teams coming off a loss of 17+ points on MNF are 16-32 ATS the following week since 1999.

Rams are 7-4 ATS on the road after a home loss of 10+ excluding September games since 2005.

Rams are 26-41 ATS in road games since 2001 (7-5 since 2009).

Rams are 17-27 ATS on grass since 2001.

Broncos are 10-27 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Broncos are 9-16 ATS vs. the NFC since 2003.

Broncos are 4-12 ATS before back-to-back road games the previous 16 instances.

Broncos are 6-12 ATS in November home games since 2000.

Broncos are 2-12 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more in 2008.

Opening Line: Broncos -4.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Cloudy, 40 degrees. Light wind.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Rams 20, Broncos 10
Rams +4 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Rams 36, Broncos 33

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) at Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
Line: Ravens by 7.5. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Ravens -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Ravens -7.
Sunday, Nov. 28, 4:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: Ravens.

Another friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Nov. 22, 2010 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) Sucky Subway. 2) Pill Lady. 3) Change Nazi.

Also, in this week’s edition of Emmitt on the Brink, Al Davis decides to use dark magic against the Patriots after watching all eight Harry Potter films.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I didn’t think the Buccaneers were that good at the beginning of the season, even when they began the year 3-1 or 4-2. Their early success the result of a ridiculously easy schedule, which is why they folded every time they battled a tough opponent like the Saints or Steelers.

However, this Tampa team is now miles ahead of where it was in September and early October for a variety reasons. One is the gradual improvement of Josh Freeman and Mike Williams. Williams continues to establish himself as a stud wideout, while Freeman simply finds ways to win games in the fourth quarter.

A second reason is the emergence of a ground game. LeGarrette Blount is the real deal. The Ravens, who rank 17th against the run, just surrendered 120 yards on 22 carries to the Falcons. They may have trouble bringing Blount down.

Freeman will have to capitalize off Blount’s hard running; the Ravens are fifth versus the pass in terms of YPA, and have collected seven sacks in the previous three weeks. However, Tampa Bay has protected Freeman well lately, permitting just six sacks in the past four weeks.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: While the Buccaneers have improved in most areas, their run defense is still a huge question mark. Excluding last week, they’ve yielded at least four yards per carry to every opponent since their Week 4 bye.

With Ray Rice and Willis McGahee bound to have ample running room, Joe Flacco will be able to torch Tampa Bay’s secondary in favorable down-and-distance situations. The Buccaneers have improved to 17th against the pass after hovering around the 20s for most of the year, but only because they’ve battled Troy Smith and Jimmy Clausen the previous two weeks.

Tampa Bay will need to pressure Flacco in any third-and-long downs they can force. Though the Ravens have surrendered nine sacks in their past three games, the Buccaneers still could struggle to get to Flacco; they have just 13 sacks on the year. Nearly half of those (6) came at San Francisco last week, but the 49ers were missing their left tackle.

RECAP: This is the Buccaneers’ latest chance to prove that they are for real. The first attempt concluded with a 38-13 Steelers victory. The second saw the Saints triumph, 31-6. The third was a near victory in Atlanta; Tampa lost 27-21 when it was stuffed on fourth-and-goal at the 1-yard line.

I don’t think the Bucs will win this game, but I think they can keep it close. I don’t feel strongly about it, but I’m taking the visitor to cover.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
The Buccaneers was a publicly backed underdog. Action is even now.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 55% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Buccaneers are 7-15 ATS off back-to-back wins since 2003.

Ravens are 27-17 ATS in November.

Ravens are 16-6 ATS in November home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Ravens -9.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Sunny, 44 degrees. Light wind.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Ravens 27, Buccaneers 24
Buccaneers +7.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Ravens 17, Buccaneers 10

Philadelphia Eagles (7-3) at Chicago Bears (7-3)
Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 43.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Eagles -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Eagles -3.
Sunday, Nov. 28, 4:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: Eagles.

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com’s GameCenter and my thoughts on them (the first from e-mailer Arun M.):

1. “this the 2nd times Colts lose without FG!!!! Cadwdell not smart coach!!!”

Apparently, the key to winning in the NFL is to kick field goals. Then you will win with FG!!!

2. “I agree hit him hard, and Vick will think twice to run with the ball, you got to remember his ribs are not heal yet… Osi, tuck, I don’t know the hits are coming and can Vick propect his ribs?”

I imagine Tom Coughlin and his assistant coaches had a similar discussion when they were preparing for the Eagles game.

3. “lol this is embaressing Thigpen is in the proverial Quicks and”

And… And!?!? Come on man, I want to hear the second half of that sentence!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: This is it. If the Bears can’t stop the Eagles, no one in the NFC can.

Chicago has the best chance of containing QB Dog Killer and all of his weapons because of its defensive speed up front. The Bears can keep QB Dog Killer from scrambling for a ton of yards, forcing him to pass.

However, that kind of sounds like an average person saying, “I have this great plan to keep Mike Tyson from using his left hand against me. I might be able to beat him if he’s only able to use his right arm.” Yeah. That’s not going to work.

The Eagles just have way too many weapons. Chicago’s defense has been fantastic this year, but I have my doubts that the Bears will be able to contain Philadelphia. The only hope Chicago has is if the Eagles commit careless turnovers, or bog down in the red zone again like they did against the Colts and Giants.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Even if the Bears can limit QB Dog Killer, they’ll also need Jay Cutler to come through. Cutler has been great on third downs the past couple of weeks, but disaster nearly struck on Thursday night when Miami’s defensive backs dropped a couple of potential interceptions.

Then, there’s the matter of the offensive line. The Bears surrendered three sacks and were whistled for numerous holding penalties against the Dolphins. The Eagles bring tons of pressure, and could force Cutler into a couple of unwise decisions.

The Bears actually ran the ball 36 times at Miami, gaining just 107 yards in the process. It’ll be important for them to keep this type of balance against an aggressive Philadelphia defense. But who knows which Mike Martz personality will show up this week?

RECAP: There are a couple of situational angles that favor the Bears.

First is the Big Al Trend, which says to take any home underdog coming off a road win playing an opponent celebrating a home victory. This system is 116-71 against the spread since 1980 (2-0 this year).

Second is a streak dynamic; the Bears have won three games in a row, yet are a home underdog. Teams have covered the spread 67 percent of the time in this situation since 2002.

Even with those angles in mind, I can’t bring myself to bet on the Bears. I don’t trust Cutler and Martz, and I just think this Philadelphia team is way too good.

The Bears are going to give the Eagles their best shot. I just don’t think it’ll be enough.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
A potential battle for a bye in the NFC.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

The public wants to bet on QB Dog Killer.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 81% (119,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Eagles are 68-43 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Andy Reid is 14-10 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 or more.

Bears are 22-14 ATS in November since 2001.

Jay Cutler is 20-40 ATS.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 43 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Eagles 26, Bears 21
Eagles -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bears 31, Eagles 26 MISSING

San Diego Chargers (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4)
Line: Colts by 3. Total: 50.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): Colts -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): Colts -3.
Sunday, Nov. 28, 8:20 ET
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The Game. Edge: Chargers.

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter (these are all from the same user):

1. “OH YEAH NOT MENTION HOLD RECORDS IN THE GAME AT NUMBER 2 BEHIND OH YEAH THAT GUY THAT SUCKS RIGHT FARVE HMMM LMAO”

In a normal setting, you could just say, “He’s No. 2 in the record books behind Favre.” But that’s not how things work on GameCenter – where incoherently typing random capitalized words is a must.

2. “I LIVE IN MIAMI AND NYC BUDDIE IM NOT SOME BURN OUT FOOL WHO TALKS AND HAS NO KNOWLEDGE OF THE GAME HAHA YOUR FUNNY POT HEAD . DO U WANT SOME SWAGGGGGG CAUSE THATS ALL THEY GET IN FL RUBISH”

For some reason, I doubt you live in both Miami and New York.

3. “R DONE FEELING STUPID YET OR SHALL WE CONTINUE”

Yes, I feel stupid. Nearly all my brain cells have imploded just reading your comments.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Here we go again. The Chargers are coming on at the end of the year – just like they always do.

Philip Rivers is on top of his game right now. He’s on pace to fall just one yard short of Dan Marino’s single-season yardage mark, but considering he’ll have Vincent Jackson and possibly Antonio Gates back, and Malcom Floyd at his disposal for a second week, he could easily shatter Marino’s record.

More importantly, Rivers figures to have a ton of success in this game. The Colts struggled to defend the Patriots last week because they couldn’t get to Tom Brady. They’ll have similar problems against the Chargers, who have protected Rivers well since the return of left tackle Marcus McNeill. San Diego has allowed just three sacks in its previous three games.

Rivers will have extra time in the pocket with his ground attack working well. Indianapolis is now ranked dead last versus the rush in terms of YPC, and Mike Tolbert looked very good on Monday night.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: I guess it’s a coincidence that while Rivers gets his weapons back, Peyton Manning loses his. Joseph Addai is not expected to play once again, while Austin Collie has already been ruled out.

Manning really has nothing to work with outside of Reggie Wayne. Pierre Garcon is physically gifted, but drops way too many passes. Jacob Tamme has the same problem. Blair White is serviceable, but not nearly as effective as Collie. And Donald Brown isn’t a very good runner.

The Chargers have a fierce pass rush ranked first in the NFL. They’ll put enough pressure on Manning to disrupt his timing and force the Colts into punting much more than they’re used to.

RECAP: The Chargers are my other five-unit selection. Aside from the fact that the Colts are extremely banged up, there are a number of reasons why I love San Diego this week:

1. The Colts are coming off an emotional, last-second loss at New England. They are not going to be fully focused against the Chargers. If you don’t think Peyton Manning is prone to this, I’d like to point to the last time Indianapolis lost to New England. The Colts suffered another defeat the following week – against San Diego.

2. Speaking of which, the Chargers seem to own the Colts for some mysterious reason. They’re actually 4-1 against Indianapolis dating back to 2005. The one Colts victory was by three points, so that wouldn’t cover this spread.

3. As mentioned in the Packers-Falcons analysis, getting a Super Six quarterback (Manning, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Rodgers) as an underdog is a very lucrative proposition. Rivers is 11-4 against the spread as an underdog in his career; 7-2 ATS in the past two years.

4. The Chargers are coming off a Monday night blowout. Teams that win by 17-plus on Monday night generally fare very well the following week (see stat below). Norv Turner himself is 3-1 against the spread following a Monday night game in his tenure with San Diego.

LOCK IN: If you want to bet the Chargers, do it now. Don’t wait because the line may fall to 2.5.

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.

The Colts are coming off an emotional, last-second loss at New England.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 55% (94,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Monday Night Magic: Teams coming off a win of 17+ points on MNF are 36-21 ATS the following week.

Philip Rivers is 11-4 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: Retractable roof.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Chargers 34, Colts 26
Chargers +3 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 50.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chargers 36, Colts 14 MISSING

San Francisco 49ers (3-7) at Arizona Cardinals (3-7)
Line: 49ers by 2. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 11): 49ers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 11): 49ers -3.
Monday, Nov. 29, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: 49ers.

It’s Monday Night Football, and unfortunately, we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Emmitt Smith, Herm Edwards, Bob Griese and former Philadelphia Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (a huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew “Maurice Drew-Jones” and Torry Holt “Terry Holt”). Here’s how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt, Griese and Herm were in the booth for this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Arizona! Guys, let’s just skip this game because these teams suck, and all of my fantasy players have played already. I want to talk something that chaps my hide. As you all know, Donovan McNabb used to work out in Arizona during the Eagles offseasons. Donovan McNabb used to be my hero, but I since consider him a traitor to my Eagles and this country. How dare he sign a new contract? I expected him to come back to my Eagles after he sabotaged the evil Redskins. Well, he sabotaged them enough, so why is he staying with them? I don’t get it, Emmitt.

Emmitt: Korey, Donovan McNabbs do not sabotize the Redskin or any other nationality of American Indianism. He was trade to Washington City, where he was expected to play footballs to the bestfulness of his ability.

Reilly: Emmitt, I’m starting to believe you. I thought the once-great Donovan McNabb was a true Philadelphia hero. Do you know what I’d do for my Eagles? I’d let the other team sleep with my wife. I’d slip a knife into her purse, so after they’re done having sex, she could take the knife out and stab the other players. No one messes with my Eagles!

Herm: Kevin, you crazy! You crazy! You mad! You lost it! You sad! You glad! Glad that you’re mad! Glad that you’re sad! Sad that you’re mad! Mad that you’re sad! Sad that you’re… uhh…

Reilly: Herm, unlike you, I have a soul. I care about my Eagles more than anything else in the world. If Osama bin Laden wants to blow up America, I’m fine with that as long as my Eagles win.

Griese: Donovan McNabb will take the Eagles to a Super Bowl one day!

Reilly: Exactly! Thank you, Bob. I’m beginning to think that you’re actually coherent and not a comatose vegetable. You at least have a soul, unlike that douche, Herm Edwards.

Emmitt: Karl, Bob Griese clearly not a vegetable. A vegetable define as somethin’ you can eat in your mouths, and that have the color green like a lettuce, green like a carrot, red like ketchup bottle, or yellow like banana.

Reilly: Emmitt, I mean vegetable in the figurative sense. That means, meh, never mind, your inferior intelligence won’t allow you to process any information I can give you.

Griese: I like vegetables!

Reilly: You are what you eat, Griese.

Herm: That’s not nice! That’s not good! Bob Griese’s not food! He’s not a drink! He can think! He’s aware! He knows what’s going on! And banana’s not a vegetable! Ketchup bottle not a vegetable! Carrot’s not a vegetable! No, carrot is a vegetable! Lettuce… uhh…

Reilly: Herm, if you’re not careful, I’ll smack you on the head with a baseball bat, and you’ll be a bigger vegetable than Griese! We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Both of these dreadful teams are in the same boat. They’d be pretty decent if they had any sort of quality quarterback play. If I had to pick one signal-caller though, I’d go with Troy Smith.

Smith was horrible last week, but at least showed something against the Rams. He has a nice arm and good mobility. Smith could have a solid outing against the Cardinals, who have a struggling pass rush (possibly negating Joe Staley’s absence) and an anemic secondary ranked 25th in terms of YPA.

The 49ers will have to establish the run. Frank Gore couldn’t get anything going last week, but could have more success against the league’s No. 29 ground defense. Every team the Cardinals have played this year has rushed for at least 80 yards.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Unlike Smith, Derek Anderson is a lost cause. Unless he finds a magic flask filled with a non-alcoholic beverage, he’ll continue to struggle with his miserable inaccuracy.

The Cardinals won’t be able to establish a consistent ground attack. San Francisco is actually third versus the rush, as no team has gained more than 4.1 YPC against them since Week 5.

Arizona has been limited to 31 points the past two weeks, seven of which came on the final play against the Chiefs, who were in prevent. This offense is horrific and will struggle to get past 14-17 points.

RECAP: What a miserable Monday night game. Seriously, who thought it was a good idea to match the 49ers up against the post-Kurt Warner Cardinals? That person should be fired immediately.

But I’ll give you a reason to watch this miserable contest – I’m putting two units on San Francisco. Here are three reasons why:

1. I feel like the Tampa Bay loss has deflated this line. The spread probably would have been 49ers -3 a week ago. So, we’re getting some value with the visitor.

2. San Francisco just suffered a home shutout. As noted below, teams coming off a home shutout are 19-9 against the spread in their next game since 2002 (12-5 if on the road).

3. Mike Singletary doesn’t have the quarterback to be successful, but he at least thrives after losing as a favorite; he’s 6-0 against the spread in the following game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
This is really sad – at 3-7, both the 49ers and Cardinals are very much alive in the NFC West race.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

This is more of a fade on the Cardinals than a play on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 76% (102,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Teams coming off a home shutout are 19-9 ATS in their next game since 2002 (12-5 if on the road).

Mike Singletary is 6-0 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Mike Singletary is 7-4 ATS against divisional opponents.

Cardinals are 9-6 ATS vs. the NFC West since 2008.

Cardinals are 11-2 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 under Ken Whisenhunt.

Opening Line: 49ers -1.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: Dome.

Week 12 NFL Pick: 49ers 24, Cardinals 18
49ers -2 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 27, Cardinals 6

Week 12 NFL Picks – Early Games
Patriots at Lions, Saints at Cowboys, Bengals at Jets, Packers at Falcons, Steelers at Bills, Panthers at Browns, Jaguars at Giants, Vikings at Redskins, Titans at Texans

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline Underdog: Jaguars +260 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Moneyline Underdog: Panthers +390 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Moneyline Underdog: Rams +165 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$165

Small Parlay: Packers +2, Chargers +3, Rams +4, Jaguars +7, Panthers +10, 49ers -1 (.5 Units to win 23.6) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Nov. 27

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 27

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 25

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)