NFL Picks Against the Spread: Super Bowl XLIV

NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2009): 13-3 (+$2,095)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2009): 10-4 (+$2,040)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2009): 8-6 (+$895)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2009): 5-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2009): 5-7-1 (-$1,010)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2009): 7-6 (-$390)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2009): 9-4 (+$1,120)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2009): 7-7-1 (+$15)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2009): 9-6-1 (+$700)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,300)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2009): 9-7 (-$240)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2009): 6-10 (-$1,450)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2009): 8-7-1 (-$685)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2009): 8-6-2 (-$690)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2009): 6-9-1 (-$75)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2009): 2-2 (-$640)
NFL Picks (Week 19, 2009): 1-3 (-$1,130)
NFL Picks (Week 20, 2009): 0-2 (-$330)
NFL Picks (Super Bowl XLIV): 1-0 (+$300)

NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Feb. 7, 5:50 p.m. ET.

New Orleans Saints (15-3) at Indianapolis Colts (16-2)
Line: Colts by 5. Total: 57.
Walt’s Projected Line: Colts -3.
Sunday, Feb. 7, at Miami. 6:25 ET

The Game. Edge: Colts.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

NFL Week 20 Recap: Yeah, yeah, yeah. I went 0-2. I didn’t know what to make of the Vikings-Saints game, which is why that was a 1-unit play.

As for the Jets-Colts contest, it’s amazing how much hate mail I received for an incorrect 2-unit selection. First of all, New York was up 17-6 in that game. Second, if Jay Feely hits all of his field goal, the Jets cover. And third, it was just a 2-unit play. If you bet heavily on New York based on my advice, then shame on you. A 2-unit pick doesn’t exactly exude confidence.

One hate mail I received – I haven’t posted this one yet – talked about my stance on the Colts benching their starters. Here’s an excerpt:

Also, I’ve read about how the Indianapolis Colts should focus on the regular season. Ask any player and they’ll tell you that the ring is most important. I haven’t seen them play, but I know where their focus is and that is why they are playing in the Super Bowl. Go Colts!

“I haven’t seen them play.” Great. Now I’m getting hate e-mails from people who don’t even watch football. If I had any emotions, I’d debacle myself and I wouldn’t think twice about it.

There is a 2010 NFL Mock Draft update on Tuesday.

Also, Jerks of the Week for Jan. 25, 2010 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) PA Wine and Spirits. 2) Punt, Pass and Kick Winners. 3) NFL Play 60 Commercials.

FEB. 2 UPDATE: Super Bowl week begins! I try to avoid any and all Super Bowl coverage because there’s only so much you can say about one game. On Monday, when I went downstairs to record Chuck and Heroes on my VCR (I am old school and don’t know how to use DVRs), I turned on my TV, and the NFL Network happened to be on. Before I could change the channel, I quickly heard Marshall Faulk say, “Peyton Manning won’t feel bad if he loses this game because New Orleans is his hometown.”

Ohhhhhkkaaayyyy…

I will not be turning on ESPN or the NFL Network until Sunday.

Moving on…

RANDOM TUESDAY NOTES: 1. The 2009 NFL regular season shall forever be known as the Rebecca Grant Cleavage Draught. Throughout the entire season, Rebecca Grant talked nonsense before the 1 p.m. football games on FOX, advertising God knows what. However, starting in Week 7 or 8, she stopped wearing revealing clothing, which nearly caused the entire Internet to collapse.

Fortunately, Rebecca “brought it” for the playoffs, which had me excited for what she was going to give us before the NFC Championship. When she finally came on, Rebecca had some extra pep in her voice, but no cleavage. Why, God? Why?

I’m bringing this up because Mark C. sent me a funny comment about Rebecca:

Thought that would get your attention… During her opening blurb last weekend she was talking about the upcoming games and goes on about how it’s being played in the “Twin cities”, I just couldn’t help but thinkin’ of her “Twin Cities”… hehe… did you catch that?

Oh yeah. There is definitely no way I could miss that.

2. Some may argue that the officiating in the Saints-Vikings game (particularly the overtime) was crooked. Forum member and Minnesota fan ZN0rseman nearly spontaneously combusted when this was going down. However, I’m sure there are some New Orleans backers out there who thought that everything was legit.

I think something we can all agree on is that there were way too many booth reviews in overtime. Three of the first seven overtime plays were challenged upstairs. How ridiculous is that?

Here’s what I propose: You know how each coach is given two challenges (and a third if he gets the first two right?) Well, I say the people upstairs should be limited to the same amount. That way we won’t have a ridiculously slow-paced overtime again. And if it’s a quicker game, who knows? Maybe the officials won’t have enough time to confirm whom they’re supposed to be making shady calls for. Upon reading this, ZN0rseman smiled.

3. If you’re wondering, I did not watch the Pro Bowl. I’ve never watched any Pro Bowl. It’s a waste of time, and players only get hurt (Robert Edwards). And this year was a joke. How was every AFC South quarterback in the Pro Bowl except for Peyton Manning? Seriously, David Garrard? How the hell did he get in? He led the freaking league in fumbles!

And speaking of the Pro Bowl, Awesome Kelly in Arizona sent over this hilarious picture:

JaMarcus Russell Pro Bowl

The only thing missing is a pouch of Skittles.

4. My Video of the Week will be featured in next week’s Jerks of the Week entry. This week, my Jerks of the Week entry is about Lost, which includes a preview for Season 6.

Jim Nantz and Phil Simms will be doing this game for CBS, but what if the broadcasting team was Emmitt, Herm and Philadelphia Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (a huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew “Maurice Drew-Jones” and Torry Holt “Terry Holt”)? Here’s how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt and Herm were in the booth for this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Miami, the Latino capital of the world! Tonight, the New Orleans Saints and the Baltimore Colts battle it out in what should be a great Super Bowl. Guys, I have to say that I’m really upset that this is the final game of the season. With no more NFL to bet on, I’m going to have to gamble on basketball and baseball. I lost a lot of money last year on those sports. So, I need to build my bankroll. Who should I bet on here?

Emmitt: I would say the safest bet of the whole bunch is the Indianapolis Colt. Not only has Peyton Manning have become one of the best quarterback of all time, he is one of the best quarterbacks in his conference. He have good arm strength, a sharp minds, and good blood lines. His dad, Archie, was a quarterback a long time ago on a team. His brother Albert the quarterback of the New York Giants. And his older brother Danny Manning play basketball for the Los Angeles Clippers a couple of season ago.

Reilly: Emmitt, I had no idea Danny Manning was related to Peyton and Albert Manning. I saw that Danny was black and Peyton was white, so I assumed that they weren’t related at all.

Emmitt: Sometime, blood is thicker than the color of the skin.

Herm: That’s wrong! That’s not true! That’s uncorrect! I mean that’s incorrect! That’s incorrect now! That’s incorrect! Danny and Peyton are brothers! I mean, Danny and Peyton are not brothers! They’re not related! Danny’s white! Peyton’s black! No relations! None! The relations to not exist! They’re gone! Never here! Argument closed! Case closed! Closed like 7-11, 24-7! I mean open like 7-11, 24-7!

Reilly: Emmitt, the one thing I’m happy about is that we won’t have to hear stupid Herm’s annoying rants anymore after this game. I can’t believe he’s saying that Danny Manning and Peyton Manning aren’t related because Danny’s white and Peyton’s black. That’s racist!

Emmitt: Herm, the Karl Reilly guy is right. Racisms are something that cannot, should not, could not, would not, uhh… something else not tolerated by anybody, not only in this entire planet, but in this telephone booth. I mean broadcast booth.

Reilly: Yeah, racists are losers! Get out of here, Herm!

Herm: I’m out! I’m out! I’m gone! I’m out! Can’t take it anymore! Can’t take the insults! Can’t take the grief! Grief’s too much! Grief’s making my boil blood! Grief’s making my blood pressure go high! Blood pressure’s so high, it’s going to the sky! And the sky’s not low! The sky is up high! We can see the sky, but we can’t realize how high it is! How high is it till you reach the sky! No one knows! But I know! I know how high it is till you reach the sky! I’ll tell you right now! I’ll tell you all this instant! Here it is! Here it goes! It is… uhh… umm…

Reilly: Like I said, Emmitt. I’d rather commit suicide five times than hear Herm rant again in the next seven months. We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: If you look at my pass defense rankings on my NFL Power Rankings page, you’ll see that the Colts are ranked third in that department. Indianapolis’ defense has been playing well this postseason, while the Saints struggled to sustain drives in the NFC Championship. I think most people believe that the Colts will be able to limit New Orleans’ offense enough to win and perhaps cover this spread.

E-mailer Bryan D. doesn’t think so. He sent me an interesting chart of the quarterbacks Indianapolis has played this season:

Garrard
Henne
Warner 30/52 332 yards 1 TD 2 INT
Hasselbeck
Collins
Bulger
Alex Smith
Schaub 32/43 311 yards 1 TD 2 INT
Brady 29/42 375 yards 3 TD 1 INT
Flacco x2
Schaub 31/42 284 yards 2 TD 2 INT
V.Young
Orton
Garrard
Sanchez x2
Fitzpatrick

Interestingly enough, the Colts have battled only three elite quarterbacks (Matt Schaub twice) this year. Those guys went 122-of-179, 1,302 yards, seven touchdowns and seven interceptions, with a 7.3 YPA and a 68.2 completion percentage. As we saw in that New England game, Indianapolis can be thrown against – it just hasn’t happened because the Colts were lucky enough to have only four tough quarterback matchups this year. And remember, Kurt Warner wasn’t himself in Week 3; he was still recovering from offseason hip surgery.

Drew Brees is one of the top signal-callers in the NFL, and he commands a dynamic offense that features tons of dangerous weapons. The only way the Colts can slow Brees down is to rattle him with pressure. And that’s why Dwight Freeney’s injury is so huge. Freeney is questionable with an ankle injury. I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t play, but will he be 100 percent? I have my doubts, but there’s really no way of knowing.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts can stop the Saints by putting tons of pressure in Brees’ face. So, how do the Saints stop the Colts? I don’t know if it’s possible. Peyton Manning is so smart and knows what the opposing defense is doing at all times. In the AFC Championship, the Jets confused him for two series, but then Manning figured everything out and proceeded to slice through their top-ranked secondary.

If New Orleans really wants to win this game, it can attempt the same strategy it employed in the NFC Championship. Forget what that was? Here’s a real live shot of Gregg Williams advising one of his defensive players on how to stop Brett Favre:

Sweep the leg

OK, fine, I used the same joke a week ago, but I need to fill space here. I’ll be shocked if the Saints come up with any way to contain Manning. He’s just on a completely different level right now. I’ve been watching the NFL for 20 years and covering it for 10 on this Web site, and I can’t remember any quarterback playing this well.

Making matters worse for the Saints, if they even figure out how to befuddle Manning for only a couple of series, they’re still going to have to worry about the run. New Orleans has surrendered at least 4.6 yards per carry in each of its past four games. Indianapolis, meanwhile, actually outrushed the Jets in the AFC Championship. If the Colts can get their running game going again, they won’t be punting much on Sunday.

THE OFFICIAL: I received some bad news on Thursday when Zach V. posted the following on my Facebook wall:

Scott Green is the head official for the Super Bowl. Does this affect your betting stance? Considering this is the same crooked official from last years shady 11-10 San Diego at Pittsburgh game.

For those of you who don’t remember, that Chargers-Steelers game was one of the shadiest NFL games in league history. Pittsburgh, favored by five, was up 11-10 when it kicked off to San Diego with a few seconds remaining. The Chargers, desperate to make a play, tried a few laterals. Troy Polamalu subsequently picked up a loose ball and ran it into the end zone, which would have covered the spread for Pittsburgh.

Even though it was clear that the lateral in question didn’t go forward – the NFL admitted as much afterward – Scott Green reviewed the play for about 10 minutes and ruled that there was a forward pass, which, according to him, meant that the play was dead.

I bet on the Chargers, and if that Polamalu play stood, I would have lost a couple of hundred bucks. When Green declared that the game was over, I was thrilled. At the same time, I knew how fortunate I was. Here’s what I wrote in the NFL Game Recap page:

Thank you, Vegas! Thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you!

After describing the play, I wrote:

As the players were running off the field, with the score 17-10, someone upstairs called for a review. The official spent what seemed like five minutes in the replay booth. When he finally emerged, he ruled that there was an illegal forward pass. It seemed as though the touchdown would stand, but then he took the touchdown off the board, quelling the anger of San Diego bettors everywhere.

I’m happy about this, but this was the shadiest turn of events I’ve ever seen. The official spent hours looking at a play that seemed obvious – seriously, the pass in question was backward by about seven yards – and then mysteriously took the touchdown off the board. I’m willing to bet – and I’m dead serious here – that someone from Vegas (or another outfit that had major interest in San Diego covering) told the official to leave the game as an 11-10 final.

So, as I was saying earlier, thank you, Vegas! Thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you!

An interesting stat from that game: Penalties: Chargers – 2 (5 yards). Steelers – 13 (115).

Wow! Scott Green was hard at work even before that crazy Polamalu play.

But Green wasn’t done. In a Week 6 Chargers-Broncos game this season, Green made several shady calls, prompting me to write:

Of course, when Norv actually correctly challenged a play, he was denied by a crooked officiating crew that was making phantom calls all evening. Brandon Stokley caught the ball out of the end zone. He dropped to the ground, and when he rolled in, the official signaled for a touchdown. That looked like the correct call at first, but the replay showed that Antonio Cromartie touched Stokley on the ground. It should have been Denver’s ball on the 1-yard line.

However, Scott Green, who seemed like he had tons of money on the Broncos, ruled that Stokley scored a touchdown even though it was very obvious that Stokley was never in the end zone.

This also goes back a few years. In 2007, I wrote the following in my Titans-Buccaneers recap:

Official Scott Green reviewed a call at the end of the second quarter, where Phillip Buchanon intercepted a Vince Young pass on his own 5-yard line. Buchanon’s right foot was clearly out of bounds. Instead, Green neglected the obvious and upheld the original call. I love the idea of instant replay, but honestly, why are plays even challenged when incompetent and arrogant referees refuse to make the correct calls?

You get the point. Scott Green is the most crooked official in the NFL. So, what do we make of this? Let’s take a look at the betting action of two of those three games in question (the Denver-San Diego game was evenly split):

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 80% (Titans didn’t cover)

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 71% (Steelers didn’t cover)

Wow, what a coincidence! The two teams Scott Green made shady calls against were getting a ton of action in Vegas. When the Titans and Steelers didn’t cover, the sportsbooks made lots of money.

Look below. Nearly two-thirds of the betting action is on the Colts. Hmm… wonder what’s going to happen here.

Consider yourself warned – if you lay money with Indianapolis, just know that you’ll be playing against Scott Green and his officiating crew.

LINE VALUE: Before the AFC and NFC Championships two weeks ago, several sportsbooks had a futures line on the Super Bowl. The AFC was -1 over the NFC. Understandable, because the Colts and Saints were considered evenly matched.

Now, the spread is Indianapolis -6. That means we’ve been awarded five points of line value – just based on last weekend’s results. The Saints struggled with a tough Vikings team, while the Colts played about 35 minutes of great football versus a rookie quarterback who lost his stud running back to injury.

Remember, based on what the pre-Championship Sunday spread was, the public considered the Saints and Colts equal two weeks ago. Now, Indianapolis is the overwhelming favorite. How does that happen based on two games? Doesn’t anyone remember that New Orleans demolished Arizona, and that Indianapolis barely outgained Baltimore?

NO ONE BELIEVES IN US: Before last year’s Super Bowl, no one gave the Cardinals a chance to win. Here’s what I wrote in my Super Bowl pick write-up:

Anyone who thinks the Cardinals don’t have a shot to win this game should probably stay away from betting the Super Bowl because they’re absolutely clueless as to what’s going on.

Does this mean Pittsburgh can’t win or cover the touchdown? Absolutely not. The Steelers are a great team as well. But the whole point of this rant is that I find it unbelievable that the Cardinals aren’t getting any respect at all.

And you know what? They’re probably loving this. They’ve been doubted by everyone three times in the playoffs. Once more should do the trick.

As Emmitt would say, “Deja view happening all over again the second time.” No one thinks the Saints have a chance. I don’t even think they have a chance.

And because I don’t think they have a chance, I believe they have a great chance. I probably just “debacled your brains and your minds,” but this is the same thing that fueled the Cardinals last year. No one gave them a shot, and the Steelers had everything to lose. Arizona consequently had a big emotional edge and nearly pulled off a huge upset.

The Colts have all of the pressure on their shoulders here. They really have nothing to gain. If they win the Super Bowl, they’re just living up to expectations. If they lose, they’ll be remembered for choking to a New Orleans squad that had no chance. The Saints are a very good team, and no one should be surprised if they win this game.

SUPER BOWL HISTORY: I feel as though going with the points is a safe bet because since Tampa Bay’s debaclation over Oakland (Jon Gruden was familiar with the Raiders – don’t forget that) most of the Super Bowls have been close:

Steelers 27, Cardinals 23
Giants 17, Patriots 14
Colts 29, Bears 17 (pick-six at the end made this margin 12)
Steelers 21, Seahawks 10 (would have been close if it weren’t for the crooked officials)
Patriots 24, Eagles 21 (and some McNabb puke on the side)
Patriots 32, Panthers 29

TO SUMMARIZE: I think this will be a close game that will go down to the wire, where either team can win. So, I like the Saints to cover. I don’t think the Colts can keep Drew Brees from lighting up the scoreboard. Taking the points in the Super Bowl is usually the way to go. No one believes in New Orleans. And the officiating crew will probably be making a few shady calls against Indianapolis.

For now, this will be a 3-unit selection. I’ve had some horrible luck go against me the past eight weeks, so I definitely wouldn’t be surprised if something crazy happens to give all Saints backers a bad beat. How about a Gary Brackett touchdown off a lateral to cover the spread as time runs out – and the NFL prohibits Scott Green from overturning the call this time?

I’m taking the points, but whom am I picking to win? The Colts. Peyton Manning is just too good, and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t find some way to win at the very end. And besides, the Saints don’t really have a chance to win this game, right?

I’ll go over some prop bets tomorrow.

PROPS: I’m not a big fan of prop betting, but occasionally I’ll come across a few things I’ll like. For example, there was a great prop last year:

Will Matt Millen pick the correct team to win Super Bowl XLIII during the Pre Game Show? Yes -225; No +185.

This was brilliant – if I do say so myself – because if you bet no and he picked the Cardinals, you were basically getting the Steelers money line at +185. And if he picked the Steelers, you were essentially getting a solid wager with Arizona money line. I ended up making $90 on the prop. There’s nothing like capitalizing on Millen’s incompetence!

Unfortunately, I don’t see any “sure bets” like this one. However, I found a few props I like:

1. Team to have the most penalty yards in the game – Indianapolis Colts +135 (Bodog): Read what I wrote about Scott Green officiating this game. Green is the most crooked official in the league, and with two-thirds of the action on the Colts, it looks like the NFL is bringing out the “big guns” to make sure the Saints cover the spread.

2. Total Receiving Yards – Pierre Garcon Over 62.5 -125 (Bodog): The Saints will take away Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. Peyton Manning will keep going to Pierre Garcon, so expect to hear a ton of Haiti references from Jim Nantz and Phil Simms.

3. Peyton Manning throws a touchdown pass in the 2nd quarter – Yes -130 (5Dimes): Cousin Sal mentioned this on the Bill Simmons Report – how is Peyton Manning not going to throw a second-quarter touchdown? He always does this. Manning is clutch in the last few minutes of the first half.

4. Joseph Addai receiving yards – Under 18.5 -115 (5Dimes): Joseph Addai’s receiving yardage totals in the last eight games: 13, 14, 0, 14, 49, 17, 13, 7. According to this, there’s an 87.5-percent chance this goes Under.

5. Shannon Sharpe’s Super Bowl Pick – xwrghjwog 0gh49g h ihgwhg oiwrh -125 (Bodog): Just kidding. I made this one up.

6. Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more in the game – No -210 (Bodog): According to ESPN’s Chad Millman, this has happened in only nine of the 43 Super Bowls. So, we’re getting 1:2 odds on something that happens only 20.9 percent of the time? It’s no Matt Millen prop, but I’ll take that.

I’ll have final thoughts on the Super Bowl over the weekend.

THE NIGHT BEFORE: I don’t know what I was planning for a write-up. Around 9 Eastern on Saturday night, this site was hacked. The hackers kept changing the home page to redirect to some other Web site. It’s now 2:45 a.m. and I’ve been working hard to keep it from happening. As I was doing this, changes were made to the forum because the hackers overwrote the index of the forum page, and I didn’t have a replacement saved on my computer. And worst of all, my Web host is in Haiti doing relief work, so I can’t contact him.

Let’s hope everything is resolved by the time the Super Bowl begins.

During the Super Bowl, you can read my thoughts in my Live Super Bowl XLIV Blog. You can also discuss Super Bowl XLIV in the Live In-Game Thread.

The Psychology. Edge: Saints.

Everyone is picking the Colts. No one is giving the Saints a shot.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.
Nearly two-thirds of the action is on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 61% (390,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Drew Brees is 22-14 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Peyton Manning is 6-3 SU vs. 4-3 Defenses in the playoffs

Peyton Manning is 4-8 ATS in the playoffs (excluding games against terrible QBs: Jake Plummer, Trent Green, Rex Grossman).

Opening Line: Colts -3,5.

Opening Total: 56.

Weather: Possible showers, 64 degrees. Wind N/A.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Super Bowl XLIV NFL Pick: Colts 27, Saints 26
Saints +5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 57 (0 Units) — Correct; $0

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Team to have the most penalty yards in the game – Indianapolis Colts +135 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100

Total Receiving Yards – Pierre Garcon Over 62.5 -125 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100

Peyton Manning throws a touchdown pass in the 2nd quarter – Yes -130 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$260

Joseph Addai receiving yards – Under 18.5 -115 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$115

Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more in the game – No -210 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$210

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

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2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)