2015 NFL Mock Draft

Last update: Wednesday, April 29, 2015.
Next update: Next week. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

This order is based on the full Seven-Round NFL Draft Order.

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2015 NFL Mock Draft

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
This selection is pretty much locked in. Barring something crazy happening over the next couple of days, the Buccaneers will be picking Jameis Winston. There have been rumors about Marcus Mariota possibly going No. 1, but those chances are extremely slim. Tampa Bay’s front office and coaching staff prefers Winston over Mariota by a wide margin. One of the owners expressed concern about Winston’s off-the-field issues, and those are very legitimate, but it’s likely that everyone else in the organization assured her that Winston won’t be a problem.

Also, don’t count on a trade happening. We reported several months ago that Tampa was more than willing to move up for a signal-caller, but that’s not necessary now that the Buccaneers own the top selection. Thus, all speculation of them moving down is pretty pointless.

*** OTHER 2015 NFL DRAFT POSSIBILITIES: ***

1. None – It’s 99.9-percent certain that Winston will be the pick.

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Tennessee Titans: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Both Chris Mortensen and Jim Wyatt reported back in January that Tennessee is set to go “all in” with Zach Mettenberger next season. That was accurate back then, but things have changed. The Titans’ front office has gotten to know Marcus Mariota, and now it would be a surprise if Mariota wasn’t the No. 2 overall pick in some shape or form.

Mariota isn’t an ideal fit for Ken Whisenhunt’s offense, but there have been many examples of coaches taking talent over system fits in the past. Take Andy Reid drafting Donovan McNabb, for example. The need for a franchise signal-caller trumps everything.

Mariota helped himself at the NFL Combine, impressing teams in the interviews and looking great in the field drills. Sixty-five percent of mock drafts have the Titans picking Mariota, per our mock draft consensus report. Leonard Williams used to be the favorite, but I never bought Williams going to Tennessee. Mariota is much more likely, whether it’s Tennessee pulling the trigger, or someone else. As for the “someone else,” I’d say San Diego is the favorite right now, but anything can happen.

*** OTHER 2015 NFL DRAFT POSSIBILITIES: ***

1. Trade Down – Check out my Marcus Mariota Trade Page for all of the scenarios. It’ll be shocking if Mariota is not the second-overall pick.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Dante Fowler, DE/OLB, Florida
The Jaguars needed offensive line help much more than another player on the defensive front heading into free agency, but they signed Jermey Parnell to a big contract, so they can definitely go with the top player on their board. While many believe that to be Leonard Williams, I’m hearing that Williams isn’t as highly regarded among teams as he is in the media, as there is some concern with his consistency. Dante Fowler might be higher on Jacksonville’s board. Besides, Fowler fills a greater need in the wake of the Jared Odrick signing. The Jaguars have to find a better edge rusher.

*** OTHER 2015 NFL DRAFT POSSIBILITIES: ***

1. Leonard Williams, DE/DT – Some may see Williams as the best player available, but we’ve heard differently. Some teams we’ve spoken to are worried about Williams’ consistency and ability to produce on third downs. However, he could still be the pick if the Jaguars like him enough.

2. Amari Cooper, WR – Cooper was mentioned as a possibility in the NFL Draft Rumors page, but that’s likely a ploy to get someone to trade up ahead of the Raiders.
Oakland Raiders: Leonard Williams, DE/DT, USC
The Raiders definitely wouldn’t mind landing Leonard Williams. He would fill a huge need, and as Charlie Campbell reported a couple of months ago, Williams told Oakland that he would love to play for them. I didn’t think there was a chance Williams would fall to No. 4, but as I mentioned in the Jaguars’ write-up, teams aren’t as high on Williams as the media is. This is not a rare phenomenon, as we saw this last year with Teddy Bridgewater. Many believe that Bridgewater’s stock dropped because of a poor Pro Day, but in reality – and we reported this ahead of time – teams never liked him to begin with. Perhaps some will be surprised if Williams falls to No. 4, but the Raiders will happily take him.

*** OTHER 2015 NFL DRAFT POSSIBILITIES: ***

1. Amari Cooper, WR – Cooper is definitely in play for the Raiders, who need to find a top target for Derek Carr. However, Williams should be considered the favorite.
Washington Redskins: Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson
I had the Redskins picking Danny Shelton in a previous update, but with Terrance Knighton signed on, Washington can select the top player available who makes sense for them. That would be the rising Vic Beasley, who was terrific at the NFL Combine.

Beasley doesn’t really fill a glaring need, as the Redskins have Ryan Kerrigan and Trent Murphy as edge rushers. However, Brian Orakpo left for Tennessee, so depth is needed. Beasley would join the two to form a very strong rotation of pass-rushers to harass Tony Romo and the other opposing quarterbacks in the NFC East. And yes, he’s worth a first-round pick. I cannot believe what I saw on ESPN on Thursday night. The sort of incompetence I’ve come to expect from the “world-wide leader.”

*** OTHER 2015 NFL DRAFT POSSIBILITIES: ***

1. Amari Cooper, WR – I was very close to mocking Cooper to the Redskins. In fact, that may be the pick in my final edition (Thursday afternoon). He could be seen as the better player available, and he probably fills the bigger need.

2. Trade Down – Washington’s general manager has stated that he’s hoping Leonard Williams is available so that he can trade down.
New York Jets: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
This pick may surprise some, as the Jets brought in Brandon Marshall this offseason to go along with Eric Decker in the receiving corps. However, there are two things to consider: First, Amari Cooper is arguably the best player available, so New York will at least consider him. Second, Brandon Marshall will be owed more than $16 million over the final two years of his contract after the 2015 campaign. He’ll be 32 next offseason, and he showed signs of slowing down this past year. Meanwhile, Decker is not a No. 1 target. Amari Cooper certainly projects to be one.

*** OTHER 2015 NFL DRAFT POSSIBILITIES: ***

1. Vic Beasley, DE/OLB – If I mock Amari Cooper to the Redskins, I’ll probably slot Beasley here. By the way, it’s a complete embarrassment that both Mel Kiper and Todd McShay “forgot” to put Beasley in the first round of their joint mock draft. Way to be prepared for your job, guys.

2. Kevin White, WR – The other receiver choice. White would make sense even if Cooper is still available.
Chicago Bears: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
I had the Bears addressing the outside linebacker position in a previous update, but that is no longer a prime need in the wake of the Pernell McPhee signing. Chicago could stand to add another pass-rusher, but the front office can look to other positions now with the No. 7 overall pick.

One such position is receiver. Brandon Marshall was traded to the Jets, so Jay Cutler will need someone to throw to besides Alshon Jeffery. Kevin White, who blew up the Combine, is the same type of big target that Marshall was.

*** OTHER 2015 NFL DRAFT POSSIBILITIES: ***

1. Amari Cooper, WR – It’ll be shocking if Cooper makes it past the Bears; he would fill a big need and be the top prospect available.

2. Vic Beasley, DE/OLB – The same could be said for Beasley. I imagine the top seven of this draft will be comprised of Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Leonard Williams, Dante Fowler, White, Cooper and Beasley in some order.
Atlanta Falcons: Alvin Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky
The run on edge rushers continues, which is predictable. Some may have projected Randy Gregory or Shane Ray here earlier, but neither is a possibility now because of terrible off-the-field issues. Both also had poor showings at the NFL Combine, and there’s something else concerning Gregory that the media isn’t aware of (but teams are).

Bud Dupree has enjoyed an exceptional draft season. He’s also exactly what Atlanta is looking for in terms of an explosive defensive player, and he’s not a reach here. He’s a legitimate top-10 prospect.

*** OTHER 2015 NFL DRAFT POSSIBILITIES: ***

1. Brandon Scherff, G/OT – If all of the pass-rushers are off the board, the Falcons could trade down or select Brandon Scherff to replace Justin Blalock at guard.

2. Vic Beasley, DE/OLB – I don’t think Beasley will be here, so the Falcons would have to move up for him. I just wanted to mention him here because he would be perfect for Atlanta’s defense.
New York Giants: Brandon Scherff, OT/G, Iowa
Amari Cooper will be the pick if he makes it this far, but I’m beginning to think that’s unlikely. Thus, the Giants will look at a more-pressing need with a slightly lesser talent.

Brandon Scherff makes a ton of sense. New York has had issues protecting Eli Manning the past few seasons, and its most-glaring hole is on the interior. Scherff, seen by many as this year’s Zack Martin, would be a massive upgrade.

*** OTHER 2015 NFL DRAFT POSSIBILITIES: ***

1. Ereck Flowers, OT – It’s a close call between Scherff and Flowers. The former is the better prospect, but Flowers provides more upside in terms of being able to play left tackle down the road.

2. Trade Up – The Giants have an extra pick in this draft, so they can afford to move up and grab a prospect who falls. Possibilities include Dante Fowler, Amari Cooper and Vic Beasley.
St. Louis Rams: Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
The Rams still have some holes on their offensive line. Jake Long’s health was a serious concern, prompting the front office to release him. There’s a void at the guard spot that Greg Robinson previously occupied. Meanwhile, right tackle Joseph Barksdale is a free agent. Here’s a solution for the latter dilemma.

*** OTHER 2015 NFL DRAFT POSSIBILITIES: ***

1. Brandon Scherff, G/OT – If the Giants pick Flowers, the Rams will almost certainly go with Scherff to fill their hole at guard.

2. DeVante Parker, WR – The Rams like Parker quite a bit. However, they feel as though the offensive line is a greater priority.

Pick change; previously Ereck Flowers, OT
Minnesota Vikings: DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
The Vikings traded for Mike Wallace, but if they watched him abandon his teammates, they know that they need some sort of insurance policy. They could even spend their first-round pick on a receiver. I’m not sure if the following was misleading, but it’s worth noting that Adrian Peterson’s agent, who is pissed that the Vikings are holding his client captive, tweeted out a hint that Minnesota really likes DeVante Parker.

*** OTHER 2015 NFL DRAFT POSSIBILITIES: ***

1. Trae Waynes, CB – It’s almost 50-50 for me in terms of the Vikings selecting either Waynes or Parker. Waynes would fill a big need at cornerback across from Xavier Rhodes.

2. Todd Gurley, RB – This is a logical spot for Gurley if Minnesota gets a fair offer for Adrian Peterson.
Cleveland Browns: Danny Shelton, NT, Washington
Cleveland was atrocious against the run to close out the season. Part of the reason for that was incompetent play from the defensive line. It didn’t help that Phil Taylor, who struggled early, missed the second half of the year with a knee injury. He has literally been a huge disappointment. The same goes for Ahtyba Rubin, who is gone.

I’ve had Danny Shelton as high as No. 5 before, so being able to grab him at the 12th selection is a steal. I just couldn’t find a home for him in the top 10. I considered Chicago, but Kevin White seems like the better prospect.

*** OTHER 2015 NFL DRAFT POSSIBILITIES: ***

1. Trade Up – The Browns are one of the favorites to move up for Marcus Mariota. Check out the Marcus Mariota Trade Page for more.

2. La’el Collins, Andrus Peat or Ereck Flowers, OTs – Any of the tackles make sense at this juncture.
New Orleans Saints: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
The Saints signed Brandon Browner this offseason, but he far from cured their woes at cornerback; they need at least one more talented player at the position. New Orleans was atrocious versus the pass last year, so it needs to consider spending an early selection on a corner. So, with that in mind, why not obtain the top player at the position in this class? Trae Waynes has a shot of going in the top 10, so snagging him at No. 13 seems like a great bargain.

*** OTHER 2015 NFL DRAFT POSSIBILITIES: ***

1. Alvin Dupree, DE/OLB – Dupree was once considered a fringe first-round prospect. Now, it’ll be a shocker if he lasts past No. 13.

2. Todd Gurley, RB – Gurley to the Saints hasn’t been discussed much, but it’s definitely a possibility. The Saints don’t exactly have great running backs in their stable.

Pick change; previously Shane Ray, DE/OLB
Miami Dolphins: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
If you haven’t been checking out the NFL Draft Rumors page, there has been speculation that the Dolphins will pick Todd Gurley at No. 14. A lot of what is being discussed now is smoke, but Miami’s interest in Gurley is legitimate. Lamar Miller is not an every-down back, and Gurley would really provide a boost for Ryan Tannehill out of the backfield.

Taking a running back in the top half of the first round may seem strange in today’s NFL, but one team we’ve spoken to believes Gurley is the next Jim Brown. I think you pick the next Jim Brown with a top-16 choice.

*** OTHER 2015 NFL DRAFT POSSIBILITIES: ***

1. DeVante Parker, WR – The Dolphins want Parker, but there’s a good chance he won’t make it to their pick.

2. Trae Waynes, CB – Miami would also love to land Waynes, but he’s no longer available in this mock.

Pick change; previously Trae Waynes, CB
San Francisco 49ers: Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
The 49ers lost two starting cornerbacks this offseason, as Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox have moved on to different teams. This has created a massive void at the cornerback position, which will need to be addressed early in the 2015 NFL Draft. Otherwise, someone like Shareece Wright may have to start for San Francisco, which would be disastrous.

Kevin Johnson made a big leap in this mock draft recently. Contacts we have in various front offices have advised us to move Johnson up, so don’t be surprised if he goes in the top 20.

*** OTHER 2015 NFL DRAFT POSSIBILITIES: ***

1. Arik Armstead, DE/DT – Armstead is a popular pick here, and for good reason. Justin Smith could be the latest 49er to retire, while Ray McDonald is no longer on the team. Defensive end is a big need.

2. Breshad Perriman, WR – The 49ers are also desperate for receiving help, so Perriman, who has seen his stock soar, could be picked this high.
Houston Texans: Arik Armstead, DE/DT, Oregon
I’ve been mocking Todd Gurley to the Texans forever. It’ll be shocking if he’s available and Houston passes on him. However, I no longer have Gurley available; his medical progress has been so positive that there are other teams considering him in the top 16.

The Texans don’t really have a great option if the draft unfolds this way. Perhaps they’ll consider Arik Armstead to play along with J.J. Watt on the defensive line. Despite Watt’s presence, the five-technique position is a need, as Houston never properly replaced Antonio Smith. *** OTHER 2015 NFL DRAFT POSSIBILITIES: ***

1. Todd Gurley, RB – Was once the favorite to be picked here.

2. Trade Down – If Gurley isn’t available, I expect the Texans to trade down and pick up a player like Armstead, Eric Kendricks or Jaelen Strong.

Pick change; previously Todd Gurley, RB

Go to 2015 NFL Mock Draft: Picks 17-32

Sorry for cutting this 2015 NFL Mock Draft into two halves; I’ve received complaints about load times and putting the mock draft on two pages saves bandwidth.

Go to 2015 NFL Mock Draft: Round 2 | Go to 2015 NFL Mock Draft: Round 3

Go to 2015 NFL Mock Draft: Round 4 | Go to 2015 NFL Mock Draft: Round 5

Go to 2015 NFL Mock Draft: Round 6 | Go to 2015 NFL Mock Draft: Round 7

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