NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17, 2020

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-14) at Indianapolis Colts (11-4)
Line: Colts by 14. Total: 48.
Sunday, Jan. 3, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

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I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I had plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: I was dumbfounded by the Colts’ 24-7 lead in Pittsburgh last week. Indianapolis was missing both of its offensive tackles, yet it had way more success offensively than I anticipated. It was very tilting. Fortunately, Ben Roethlisberger was able to lead a tremendous comeback to cover, which helped vault me into the top 10 of the Supercontest.

The Colts’ offensive success will hinge on the health of their offensive line. If they get at least one of their tackles back into the lineup, they’ll be able to move the chains with ease in this game. The Jaguars have an absolutely pathetic defense that couldn’t stop the Bears’ offense last week, so they won’t stand a chance against Jonathan Taylor, Philip Rivers and T.Y. Hilton.

I still think Indianapolis will score a decent chunk of points if both tackles are out again, but there will be more stalled drives than people expect. This will give the Jaguars a chance to creep into a cover, but based on the results the past two weeks, perhaps not.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Gardner Minshew is clearly the better quarterback compared to Mike Glennon. Jacksonville’s decision to start Glennon over Minshew, and then sit James Robinson when he was resting all week, were indications that the Jaguars were losing on purpose in order to obtain Trevor Lawrence. I suppose this was to be expected when Jacksonville’s mayor openly mocked the Jets on Twitter for beating the Rams.

The Jaguars are now locked into the top pick, so they can start trying again. The problem is that this is an extremely difficult matchup. Jacksonville hasn’t been blocking well, which will spell trouble against Indianapolis’ dynamic defensive front. The Colts will place heavy pressure on Glennon/Minshew, which will create some turnovers.

Meanwhile, Robinson will find it difficult to run on the Colts. Indianapolis has one of the top ground defenses in the NFL, so Robinson’s extra rest won’t allow him to enjoy a great performance.

RECAP: I’m betting five units on the Jaguars! Just kidding. I won’t do that again. I’ve learned my lesson.

I’m going to be on the Colts no matter what. The only question is the unit count. If the Colts get at least one of their tackles back, I’ll probably bet two or three units on them. If everyone’s healthy, this will likely be a four-unit wager.

You might be wondering about Aurora Snowmo. Our favorite Lady of the Playoff-less Lake will make some appearances later on this page, but I don’t think she’ll emerge in this game because Jacksonville is too inept. The Jaguars were in great covering spots the past two weeks, yet were demolished on both occasions. Knowing that this is a very easy matchup, the Colts won’t choke.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Jaguars have announced Mike Glennon as the starter and that James Robinson will be shut down again. Apparently, the Jaguars are still trying to lose. The Colts, meanwhile, lost Anthony Castonzo, but will have Braden Smith back from his Week 16 absence.

SATURDAY NOTES: I like the Colts for a few units. The Jaguars have been a disaster, and now they’ll be missing their No. 1 receiver on top of everything else. Meanwhile, Doug Marrone will reportedly be fired, so the Jaguars have no reason to try hard. I’m bumping the unit count to four.

SATURDAY NOTES II: I’m going to lock in this pick now. Pinnacle and CRIS, the two sharpest sportsbooks, have moved to -14.5 and -14 -119, respectively. This line may move to -14.5 everywhere, so I’d like to beat that to the punch.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m glad I locked in this pick. This line has moved to -15.5 in most sportsbooks. I still like the Colts, even at that number, but I’d go with two or three units instead of four.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has remained at -15.5 after the sharps bet this line at -14. Again, this would be a two- or three-unit wager at -15.5 instead of the four I had at -14.

Green Bay Packers (12-3) at Chicago Bears (8-7)
Line: Packers by 4. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Jan. 3, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: Even though the pandemic is bogus, I’m sure most of you didn’t fly as much as you wanted this spring and summer. Don’t worry, George Carlin can tell you what you missed (thanks, Joseph P.):



The bit about stomping on the fat guy’s head and shoving the child aside to get to the emergency exit reminds me of the Seinfeld episode where George Costanza pushed the children aside because there was a fire.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I wasn’t planning on betting the Green Bay-Tennessee game until some major news broke on Saturday. Corey Linsley was set to return to the field, which was huge. The Packers had sputtered offensively in some games during the middle portion of the season, failing to cover against the Panthers and Lions. This was because they were down two offensive linemen, including Linsley, arguably the best center in the NFL.

Linsley made a huge impact in his return to action. He helped blast open huge holes for Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. The Bears are better against the run than the Titans are, but an elite offensive line will be able to win some battles in the trenches versus Akiem Hicks and the rest of Chicago’s front.

Aaron Rodgers was also able to benefit from Linsley’s presence. He had all the time in the world to find Davante Adams and the rest of his receivers in the Sunday night affair. Again, the Bears can generate more pressure than the Titans, but there are some liabilities in Chicago’s secondary. The Bears have missed two cornerbacks the past couple of weeks, so if that continues to be the case, they’ll be in trouble against Rodgers.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: “Mitchell Trubisky is playing great right now.” I heard someone say this. I can’t remember who because I instantly had a seizure upon hearing this terrible opinion, but someone out there actually believed those words.

Trubisky has traversed the easiest schedule possible over the past month. In the span of the past four weeks, he’s battled two of the worst defenses in the NFL, the Texans and the Jaguars, as well as the Lions and Vikings, two defenses missing more than half of their starters. This will be Trubisky’s first challenge since, well, playing the Packers earlier this season. In that game, Trubisky was a disaster through three quarters before posting some nice garbage-time numbers in the final frame.

The problem for Trubisky, aside from his inability to read defenses and his habit of making terrible mistakes, is that he has a bad blocking unit in front of him. The Bears have too many injuries up front, which will allow the Packers to once again capitalize on that liability.

RECAP: The Packers will obviously play their starters because the No. 1 seed is on the line. If they lose, and the Seahawks win, they won’t have a bye next week.

With that in mind, Green Bay should be able to prevail easily. The inept defenses the Bears have battled in recent weeks haven’t been able to take advantage of their offensive line woes. The Packers did that in the first meeting, and they’ll do so again. Meanwhile, Rodgers will exploit the holes in Chicago’s secondary that Mike Glennon was incapable of abusing last week.

On top of that, we’re getting a bit of line value with the Packers. The advance spread was Green Bay -6.5. A one-point move isn’t a huge deal, but the Packers winning by six is a likely result, so getting that key number is important.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Packers might be without two offensive linemen again, as Ricky Wagner missed Wednesday’s practice. This is a disappointment, as Green Bay was going to play better with a healthy blocking unit.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ricky Wagner will play, so that’s the good news. The bad news is that David Bakhtiari tore his ACL. I loved the Packers before that news, but it’s going to be difficult for them to win by a large margin without two blockers. I still like the Packers to cover, but I won’t be betting them.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps were all over the Bears ever since David Bakhtiari tore his ACL. They moved the line down to +3.5, but the public has moved the line back up to -4.5. I still like the Packers, but not enough to bet this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, the sharps have bet the Bears, while the public is on the Packers. The sharp books – Pinnacle, CRIS – are begging for action on the Packers. If you’re wondering why, it’s the Bakhtiari injury. That’s not enough to sway me to bet Chicago. I’m sticking with the Packers for no units. If you want to bet Green Bay, you can get -4 at Bookmaker.

Tennessee Titans (10-5) at Houston Texans (4-11)
Line: Titans by 7. Total: 54.5.
Sunday, Jan. 3, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Titans.

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TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Packers beat the Titans at their own game last week, bulldozing through their defense with a heavy back who looked more like Derrick Henry than Henry did. The Titans, conversely, couldn’t quite utilize this strategy because they were in a constant deficit and saw Green Bay load the box to dare Ryan Tannehill to throw.

The Titas can get back to basics in this game, as Houston’s beleaguered defense doesn’t have a prayer in stopping Henry. The Texans couldn’t even limit Samaje Perine or Giovani Bernard last week. They were missing eight starters on defense, and it’s unlikely that they’ll get back reinforcements in the season finale.

As far as those eight defensive starters are concerned, the Texans were missing every single player in their secondary. Thus, Tannehill will have a much easier time this week of airing it out against the Texans in comparison to the matchup last week.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans won’t be able to stop the Titans whatsoever, so they’ll need to be dynamic on this side of the ball. That is definitely a possibility, given the issues the Titans have on defense. They have absolutely zero pass rush, which has caused some breakdowns in their pass defense.

Despite Deshaun Watson’s lack of elite weaponry, he should still be able to exploit this liability. Watson has been torched poor pass defenses lately, as he and Brandin Cooks lit up the Bengals. Watson won’t have anyone in his face, so he’ll torch Tennessee’s struggling secondary.

The one caveat is Watson’s health. On the penultimate drive of the Cincinnati game, Watson had his hand caught inside of a Bengal player’s helmet. He appeared to injure it, but he remained in the game. Watson quickly said he would play in this contest, so that’s a good sign. It’ll be interesting to see if he appears on the team’s injury report at all.

RECAP: Assuming there’s nothing dubious on the injury report regarding Watson’s hand, I like the Texans to keep this game close. I realize how bad their defense is, but there’s a high probability of a back-door cover in this game because of Tennessee’s poor pass rush. The Texans will be able to score late in the game to potentially cut Tennessee’s lead to within seven, which will be good enough to cover the +7.5 line.

Speaking of the +7.5 line, we’re getting amazing spread value with the Texans. The advance line on this game was Tennessee -4.5, yet because of one week of action, this number ballooned through two key numbers. That makes Houston even more appealing.

Even better, this will be our first appearance of Aurora Snowmo. For those of you who are new, Aurora Snowmo is a dynamic where teams that need to win to reach the playoffs choke against opponents eliminated from the postseason. I have little doubt that Aurora Snowmo will have her icy, dead hands around the throat of the Titans as she tries to drag them into the wintry, playoff-less lake.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Titans had lots of key players miss Wednesday’s practice, but that could just be them getting rest. It’ll be interesting to see how it pans out later in the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Texans, already a train wreck defensively with all of their injuries, will be missing three offensive linemen, including Laremy Tunsil. It’s basically Deshaun Watson, David Johnson, Brandin Cooks and J.J. Watt versus an 11-win opponent. Good luck! As you can tell, I’m not as high on Houston as I was earlier in the week, but I still think the team will cover.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps bet the Texans at +7.5. I’m hoping that line reemerges, but I still like Houston for a couple of units at +7.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Unfortunately, no +7.5 has reemerged. The sharps bet this down to +7, which is not a surprise. I can’t find anything better than the +7 -110 at BetUS or Bovada.

New Orleans Saints (10-4) at Carolina Panthers (4-10)
Line: Saints by 6. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Jan. 3, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Drew Brees was incredibly rusty in his first game back from injury, but he improved just five days later on Christmas. Of course, it helped that he was battling a defense missing eight of its starters.

The Panthers aren’t missing eight defensive starters, but they’re rather poor on this side of the ball. They have some well-documented issues in their secondary that they’ve been able to mask with an impressive pass rush. However, given how well protected Brees happens to be, it’ll be difficult for the Panthers to slow down New Orleans’ passing attack.

Of course, limiting Alvin Kamara will be the toughest task. Kamara is coming off a six-touchdown performance, and he’ll certainly be in position for more scores, given the ineptitude of the Panthers’ ground defense. CAROLINA OFFENSE: While the Saints couldn’t be slowed down at all on Christmas, their defense looked like it would blow a potential victory, or at least a cover, for most of the afternoon. The Vikings moved the chains easily against the Saints, as it appeared as though Malcolm Jenkins was running in quicksand.

We don’t need to ask if Teddy Bridgewater is capable of keeping up with New Orleans’ offense. After all, we saw Bridgewater do so earlier in the season when he engaged in a close affair with the Saints. Bridgewater went 23-of-28 for 254 yards and two touchdowns in New Orleans back in Week 7. He nearly led his team to a victory, with the game being decided on a final missed field goal.

Bridgewater should be able to keep the chains moving, regardless of whether or not Christian McCaffrey finally returns from injury. It doesn’t sound like McCaffrey will play, so Mike Davis might be able to exploit a run defense that has been somewhat leaky lately.

RECAP: I was hoping to get more line value with the Panthers. The advance line was New Orleans -6, so after seeing Kamara score six times, I was sure the public would be lining up to bet the Saints in this game. They are doing that, yet the sportsbooks have kept this line at -6.5, which is an indication of what the sharp side is.

Despite not getting a line of +7 or better, I still like the Panthers to keep this close. Carolina has battled most of its opponents to the bitter end this year, losing by one score against the Saints, Chiefs and Packers. They should be able to stay within striking distance of New Orleans once again.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Not only is Christian McCaffrey ruled out; Mike Davis won’t be available either. I still like the Panthers to cover, though more injuries might have me thinking otherwise.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Saints are getting some role players back from injury this week, but they’ll be down both Michael Thomas and all of their running backs, including Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray. With Drew Brees not yet 100 percent, New Orleans’ offense should remain limited, so I like the Panthers quite a bit at +6.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The vig is rising on the Panthers in some of the sharp sportsbooks, which is an indication that this line is dropping to +5.5. I’m going to lock in the Panthers at +6 -110 at Bovada.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m glad we locked this pick in Sunday morning because this line has dropped to +5.5 in some books, and the vig is high on +6 elsewhere. Except Bovada. You can still get +6 -110 there. Bovada is a square book, which is why they are last to move this spread because of sharp action.

Los Angeles Chargers (6-9) at Kansas City Chiefs (14-1)
Line: Chargers by 6.5. Total: 43.
Sunday, Jan. 3, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

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RESTED STARTERS: Andy Reid has announced that some of his starters won’t play in this game. Reid has a history of sitting his key players in Week 17, so we’ll see mostly backups from the Chiefs. Thus, I won’t bother delving into the matchups.

RECAP: Reid doesn’t care about Week 4 preseason games, just like he doesn’t care about Week 17 games. He won’t game plan at all for this contest, so that means the Chargers will enjoy an easy victory. With that in mind, this spread, whatever it turns out to be, will be too small. This is going to be a big play on the Chargers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Many key Chargers missed Wednesday’s practice, including Keenan Allen, Joey Bosa, Bryan Bulaga, Chris Harris and Casey Hayward. I don’t think I’ll be betting the Chargers heavily if they’re missing all of these players.

SATURDAY NOTES: We know the Chiefs are resting their starters. The Chargers are doing so as well. Sort of. They’re sitting many key players, including Joey Bosa, Bryan Bulaga, Casey Hayward, Keenan Allen and Rayshawn Jenkins. I still like the Chargers enough to place a medium-sized bet on them, but I don’t like them as much as I did earlier in the week, especially with this line move to -4.5 (though that’s looking like sharp action.)

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have been aggressively betting the Chargers all the way up to -6. All the line value is gone, unfortunately, so I won’t be betting this game. I still would like the Chargers at -3.5, but not at -6.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Chiefs have opted to sit Tyrann Mathieu in addition to their offensive players. That would explain why this line has moved to -7 in most sportsbooks. There is no line value available for the Chargers anymore, so I can’t advise a bet. The sharps bet this line when it was -3.5 and -4, but this is now FOMO public money.

Seattle Seahawks (11-4) at San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
Line: Seahawks by 7. Total: 46.
Sunday, Jan. 3, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers apparently treated their Week 16 affair against the Cardinals as though that were their Super Bowl. They won that game, so they’ve decided to wave the white flag on the 2020 season. We know this because they’re sitting some of their key players in this affair, including Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk. They’ve also announced that Jimmy Garoppolo won’t return.

With two offensive linemen missing, C.J. Beathard is going to have trouble finding time in the pocket to connect to his diminished group of receivers. This may not have been a huge problem against the Seahawks earlier in the year, but Seattle’s defense has improved of late. They’ve made some nice adjustments, like putting K.J. Wright on the edge and finding something in young cornerback D.J. Reed. Jamal Adams is also playing better than he was earlier in the season.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks are better against the run than the pass, so I don’t expect Jeff Wilson Jr. to do the same damage he did to the Cardinals, especially with Williams out of the lineup.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: While the Seahawks have improved defensively, their offense hasn’t exactly been clicking. Perhaps the problem is that they’re not letting “Russ cook.” The Seahawks were so much more aggressive offensively earlier in the season, but they’ve been way more conservative of late. This could ultimately be their undoing.

Then again, perhaps the Seahawks are going to unleash Wilson in the playoffs against unsuspecting teams. If so, it’ll help if they have a healthy offensive line. Seattle received good news ahead of the Rams game when it was announced that Brandon Shell would play, so that just leaves Mike Iupati as the sole absent offensive lineman. If that’s the case – or better yet, if Iupati returns – that’ll give the Seahawks a huge boost.

Besides, it’s not like the 49ers can stick with the Seattle receivers. We saw the Seahawks light up the 49ers’ secondary earlier in the season, with D.K. Metcalf catching 12 passes for 161 yards and two touchdowns.

RECAP: The 49ers are sitting some of their talented players, so it’s going to be difficult for them to keep pace with Seattle. The Seahawks have been playing much better lately, thanks to the defensive adjustments and the improved health of the offensive line. With the potential of claiming the No. 1 seed, the Seahawks will be playing hard, so they should be able to cover the spread easily against the injury-ravaged 49ers.

This is going to be a big wager. I love the matchup edge for the Seahawks, and it’s also nice that we’re getting a bit of line value. Because of the 49ers’ win over the Cardinals, this spread is down from the advance line of -6.5. One point isn’t always a huge deal, but getting the key number of six is nice.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’ll be interesting to see how many 49ers are rested for this meaningless game. They’ve already announced Jimmy Garoppolo, Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk won’t be playing.

SATURDAY NOTES: I really wanted to see Brandon Shell return this week, but he had a close contact with someone with a minor illness, so there’s lots of concern for some reason. With two absent offensive linemen, I don’t like the Seahawks as much as I did earlier, though it’s worth looking at who will be missing for San Francisco: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, RB Raheem Mostert, WR Deebo Samuel, WR Brandon Aiyuk, OT Trent Williams, G Tom Compton, C Ben Garland, DT Javon Kinlaw, DT Kevin Givens, DE Nick Bosa, DE Dee Ford, LB Dre Greenlaw, CB Richard Sherman, CB K’Waun Williams, CB Jamar Taylor, S Jaquiski Tartt.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’ve seen nothing to convince me to bet this game with the Seahaws missing two offensive linemen. I’d still bet them if I had to, but we’re not getting any line value.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps aren’t betting this game, and I’m not either. The Seahawks could beat the 49ers easily because of San Francisco’s numerous injuries, but they’re missing two offensive linemen, so the 49ers’ back-door chances are somewhat high. There’s no line value anymore either. If you want to bet this game, you can get Seattle -7 -113 at Bookmaker.

Las Vegas Raiders (7-8) at Denver Broncos (5-10)
Line: Raiders by 3. Total: 50.5.
Sunday, Jan. 3, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Raiders.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called One Big Happy Family.

DENVER OFFENSE: It’s amazing that the Broncos nearly beat the Chargers last week because they made so many mistakes. Drew Lock was guilty of some errors, including an awful red zone interception, while Jerry Jeudy dropped six passes, some of which were deep receptions.

I expect the Broncos to play better this week. This is an easier matchup for them, as the Raiders certainly don’t have two talented cornerbacks like the Chargers possess (Chris Harris, Casey Hayward.) The Raiders weren’t able to cover any of the backup Miami receivers last Saturday, so they’ll certainly have issues sticking with Jeudy, Tim Patrick and Noah Fant.

Melvin Gordon figures to run well on the Raiders, too. Las Vegas isn’t good versus the rush in the first place – Myles Gaskin is coming off a big performance – plus, the motivation might not be there. More on that later.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders have advantages on this side of the ball. One they won’t possess, however, is Josh Jacobs against the Denver front. Jacobs trampled th Broncos back in Week 10, gaining 112 yards on 21 carries. However, this was done against a Bronco defense missing all of its linemen. Denver is healthier in this area now.

That’s not the case everywhere, however. The Broncos are down their top two cornerbacks, which will make life easier for Derek Carr. Nelson Agholor has somehow emerged into a solid threat, so he figures to exploit this matchup. Agholor still drops too many passes, but he’ll make enough big plays to make up for it.

Speaking of big plays, Darren Waller created plenty of those against the Dolphins on Saturday night. This is another easy matchup for Waller to exploit.

RECAP: As mentioned earlier, the Raiders could be incredibly flat in this game. Given the way they lost to the Dolphins to be officially eliminated from the playoffs, it’ll be a tough task to come back from that, especially against an opponent they trashed earlier in the season.

The Raiders beat the Broncos 37-12 in Week 10, so this is a major revenge spot for Denver. The Broncos are playing better football now overall, so with more incentive, they should be able to handle the Raiders.

Furthermore, I love this line value. Denver was -2.5 on the advance line, yet the Raiders are now favored for some reason. I’m not sure why this line would swing this much, but it’s very appealing to get great value while fading some heavy public betting action.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’d be interested in buying up to +3. The best vig was -132 at Bookmaker last night. Now, Denver is +3 -112. I may lock that in Friday evening/Saturday morning once I see the final injury report.

SATURDAY NOTES: Remember earlier in the year when Denver was missing its entire defensive line? That’s the case once again with Shelby Harris placed on injured reserve. Meanwhile, the Raiders are going to be without two offensive linemen and one of the injured player’s backups, as Trent Brown and Denzelle Good won’t play. I’m removing all units from this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has crept up to Raiders -3. I’d be all over the Broncos if they didn’t have such dire injury issues.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are so many injuries for both teams. I was hoping Bradley Chubb would play for the Broncos, but he and the entire defensive line is out. Meanwhile, the Raiders are missing three offensive linemen. I can understand why the sharps haven’t touched this game. I would take Denver if I had to, and if you want to bet the Broncos, the best line is +3 -116 at Bookmaker.

Arizona Cardinals (8-7) at Los Angeles Rams (9-6)
Line: Cardinals by 3. Total: 41.
Sunday, Jan. 3, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Jared Goff banged his hand on a Seattle player’s helmet during his team’s Week 16 loss. This resulted in a dislocated thumb, making it unlikely that we’ll see him again this season. Instead, we’ll see his backup, John Wolford. Wolflord, you say?



It’s unclear if Wolflord’s stupid Stopspell tactics will work, but he’ll at least be coached up by Sean McVay. There aren’t many coaches better than McVay at getting the most out of quarterbacks. He’ll have a great game plan prepared, and Wolflord will have talented players at his disposal.

Regardless, the Rams will attempt to run the ball as much as possible. It remains to be seen which running back will start for them because of injury, but Los Angeles should have success on the ground against a defense that was just gashed by Jeff Wilson Jr.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: It’s not clear if Kyler Murray will play either. Murray suffered a leg injury against the 49ers, so he may not be available. Kliff Kingsbury said he was “hopeful” that Murray will be able to take the field.

Either way, this sounds horrible for the Cardinals. If Murray plays, he won’t have his mobility. If he sits, someone named Chris Streveler will start instead. Never mind that I don’t have a clever Dragon Warrior comparison for that guy; the fact remains that Murray means way more to the Cardinals than Goff does for the Rams. There’s a reason Murray was seen as an MVP candidate early in the season, while Goff never was. Murray’s mobility is a huge X-factor. Without Murray’s mobility, the Cardinals are basically the pre-Deshaun Watson Texans, without the great defense.

And to make matters worse, the Cardinals have an impossible matchup in this contest. The Rams have the best defense in the NFL, so they’ll be able to severely limit the Cardinals with an injured Murray or an overwhelmed Streveler.

RECAP: There’s no line on this game at the moment, so I can’t give you an exact unit count. However, I’m sure I’ll be on the Rams as long as the number isn’t out of control. I love betting on good teams playing their backup quarterback. This applies to the Rams, but not the Cardinals because they rely on Murray so much.

I’ll have an exact unit count when the line is posted. Check back, or follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like Kyler Murray will play, but he may not be 100 percent. A line has been posted, with the Cardinals favored by three. With the vig rising, we might see a -3.5 soon.

I watched every snap of John Wolford, or rather, John Wolflord during the 2019 preseason. Here’s a clip you’ll want to see of Wolflord:



If John Wolflord knows the spell Hurtmore, it’s all over for the Cardinals.

OK, in all seriousness, let’s get to the analysis:

John Wolflord ran some zone-read to start his first appearance against the Raiders. He looked like he moved well, as he was utilizing some play-action bootlegs as well. He made a nice, accurate throw for about 15 yards over a defender. That was his only good pass, as his other completions were short tosses. Wolflord looked like he had nice mobility, even scrambling for a 10-yard gain on a fourth-and-11. The defenders stopped him before he could cross the first-down marker. He didn’t do anything of note in the second preseason game. The third contest, a victory over Denver, saw Wolflord throw a nice strike of about 20 yards to Nsimba Webster. The drive concluded with a touchdown pass on fourth down, which ended up being the decisive score.

Wolflord’s best game was the preseason finale versus Houston. He threw a pair of 18-yard strikes on his first drive before seeing a potential touchdown dropped by Webster. However, he shook it off by showing confidence on a third-and-7 throw, connecting with his receiver for a first down. On the very next play, Wolflord play-action bootlegged away from pressure and hurled a very accurate pass to Kendall Blanton for a touchdown. Wolflord was able to impressively escape pressure and step up in the pocket to fire a 16-yard completion on a late drive. He capped off the possession by connecting with Webster for a 15-yard touchdown in which he showed nice touch to float the ball over the defender. Wolflord went 8-of-15 for 105 yards and two touchdowns in this contest. Three incompletions were dropped. Three others were poor throws.

Wolflord reminds me of Kyler Murray. Rather, a slower Kyler Murray with worse arm strength. He’s undersized, but moves well and seems to do his best while on the move. His best trait, in addition to his mobility, is his short and intermediate accuracy. There’s a reason why Sean McVay chose him as his backup over Blake Bortles. Wolflord’s not going to be a superstar quarterback, or anything, but he impressed me. He looks like a solid backup capable of winning a football game.

SATURDAY NOTES: As this week has progressed, I’ve liked the Rams more and more. I love them now enough to make them my December NFL Pick of the Month. In this game, we’re getting a field goal with…

The home team

The better defense

The healthier quarterback

The superior offensive line

The heavy coaching advantage

Now, I understand that Jared Goff is out, but I hate Goff. He stinks. He was the weakest link of the Rams’ roster. Sean McVay, one of the brightest offensive-minded coaches in the NFL, handpicked John Wolflord to be the backup, so I trust McVay to get Wolflord to play well against a defense that isn’t very good.

Also, ask yourself this: Except for quarterback and receiver, where are the Cardinals better than the Rams? Once you realize the answer is “nowhere,” and that one of those two positions of strength for Arizona, quarterback, is compromised by an injured player, and the Rams have had that injured player’s number thus far, perhaps you’ll agree with me that the Rams are worth a huge bet.

I’m locking in this pick now because I don’t want to lose the +3. If this moves to +3.5, so be it, but I don’t want to bet +2.5 or have to pay for high vig. The best line I see is Rams +3 -109 at Bookmaker.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m glad I locked in this pick because there’s no +3 available anymore. I still love the Rams at this number – the sharps do, too – but +1 is not an eight-unit play (likely half that amount.)

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread is now a pick ’em! The sharps are pounding the Rams, which I like to see. Even better, the Rams got some positive injury news. They’ll have Cam Akers, while the Cardinals will be without Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald and Chase Edmonds. I would bet five units at pick ’em as opposed to the eight at +3.

Washington Redskins (6-9) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-10-1)
Line: Redskins by 7. Total: 43.
Sunday, Jan. 3, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Philadelphia, the greatest city in the world, where we have a game between the Washington Buttskins and my Philadelphia Eagles! Guys, this game doesn’t mean anything at all because the guy on TV said my Philadelphia Eagles can’t make the playoffs due to election collusion, so let’s get to the big story! We’re getting Christmas bonuses! What are you guys going to buy with your Christmas bonuses? I was able to afford only one Eagles bobblehead with my allowance, but I can now by 20!

Emmitt: Sterling, I do not understand your obsessive with bubble heads. But speaking of bubble, my bastard son Emmitt Snow Jr. really love the magic toy wand you dip into the bubble stuff and you blow on him to get the bubble. I definitely going to spend a big chump of my Chrispmas bonus on them.

Reilly: Emmitt, please stop making me jealous. Mother said that toy is dangerous and banned it from our house. Guys, it’s now time to hear from our award-winning female football analyst, Tara Muller!

Tara Muller: I love football! Football is so much fun! I love getting Christmas bonuses! I’m going to buy lots of cool stuff with our Christmas bonus! It’s going to be great!

Reilly: Wow, that was great announcing, you guys! Someone please put her in the Announcing Hall of Fame already!

Tollefson: I’ll get into trouble if I say I want Tara Muller to cook and clean for me naked, so let me tell you, Kevin: If you give me the $600 you’re getting from your Christmas bonus, I’ll invest it and give you back $50,000 two months later. What do you think? Sounds sweet, right?

Reilly: Oh, Tolly! You’re such a good friend, thinking me all the time. I’d say yes, but I need the Eagles bobbleheads now!

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Guys, I heard some talk about good friends. Good friends are friends that are good. Because when you have friends, and they are good, they become good friends. Because you have someone who’s good, and they are friends, so they are good friends. If they were bad friends, they would be bad friends because bad friends are not good friends because they are bad friends and not good friends. Only good friends are good friends and not bad friends, which are bad friends and not good friends which are good friends.

Reilly: I’d tell this idiot to shut up, but I’m excited to spend my $600 Christmas bonus!

Station Employee: Excuse me, I’d like to announce that instead of $600, you’ll be getting $500 because $100 of your Christmas bonus is going to fund penguin gender studies in Australia.

Reilly: What!? I already picked out the bobbleheads I wanted to buy!

Fouts: And here’s what he means by buy. When you buy stuff, you do the opposite of sell, and when you sell, you do the opposite of buy, but the same thing as sell, which is the opposite of buy, and the same thing as buy.

Reilly: Wait, can we talk about this $100 deduction!?

Station Employee: Excuse me, we’ve dropped your Christmas bonus to $400 because $100 is going to construct raccoon traps in Herm Edwards’ house.

Reilly: WHAT!? WHO CARES ABOUT RACCOONS IN HERM’S HOUSE!?

Wolfley: KEVIN, DON’T UNDERESTIMATE RACCOONS. MY HOME PLANET WAS NEARLY OVERRUN BY THOSE CRITTERS. OF COURSE, OUR RACCOONS HAVE LASER GUNS THAT CAN BLOW UP BUILDINGS IN A SINGLE SHOT! IT ALL STARTED WHEN A SCIENTIST WANTED TO PUT SAUCE ON A RACCOON’S BOYS. IT DID NOT END WELL!

Reilly: It will not end well if they take away more of our Christmas bonus!

Station Employee: Excuse me, we’re now down to $300. We need to pay Dwayne Haskins’ strip club tab.

Cutler: Did someone say strip clubs? You son of a b***h, I’m in.

Reilly: NO, STOP IT! MY PRECIOUS BOBBLEHEADS!

Station Employee: Excuse me, we’re now down to $200. Aqib Talib was upset that people were making fun of his announcing, so he needs therapy. We’re footing the bill.

Reilly: WHAT!? WHY!? WHY ARE WE PAYING FOR THIS!?

Station Employee: Excuse me, we’re now down to $100. The raccoons we chased away from Herm Edwards’ property are now suing us for oppressing them, so we need to hire lawyers.

Reilly: NO, NO ONE CARES ABOUT RACCOONS BEING OPPRESSED!

Alyssa Milano: WHHHAAATTTT!?!?!?!?!?!? Ex-ca-use me! How dare you say no one cares about raccoons being oppressed!? Female raccoons have been oppressed for so long! Did you know that they eat 79 percent of trash that male raccoons eat! If that’s not a systemic gender violation, I don’t know what is! That’s it, I’m going to sue the station for oppressing female raccoons!

Station Employee: We need to take more money to pay for more lawyers in the Alyssa Milano suit. But don’t worry, Kevin Reilly! Your Christmas bonus is now down to $1.50. We promise we won’t take any more!

Reilly: BUT I CAN’T BUY ANY EAGLES BOBBLEHEADS WITH ONLY $1.50!!!!

Charles Davis: Kevin, looks like you can’t buy any Eagles bobbleheads, Kevin. I happen to have many Eagles bobbleheads, Kevin. Look, Kevin, here’s a Fletcher Cox bobblehead, Kevin. What about a Zach Ertz bobblehead, Kevin? Let’s discuss my Carson Wentz bobblehead, Kevin. How about my Miles Sanders bobblehead, Kevin? Here’s a vintage Brian Dawkins bobblehead, Kevin! Oh, what’s that, Kevin? A Nick Foles bobblehead, Kevin? Bet you’re jealous, Kevin. But wait, there’s more, Kevin. Look here, Kevin. A Jalen Hurts bobblehead, Kevin!

Reilly: WHAT, WHAT, WHAT!?!??! YOU HAVE A JALEN HURTS BOBBLEHEAD!?!?!? I WILL LITERALLY KILL ANYONE ON THE PLANET, INCLUDING MOTHER, FOR A JALEN HURTS BOBBLEHEAD, AND YET YOU HAVE ONE! LIFE SUCKS, AND I WISH I WERE DEAD!!! We’ll be back after this!

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: It’s not yet clear which quarterback will start for the Redskins in this game. We know for sure that it won’t be Dwayne Haskins, who was cut due to utter incompetence. Ron Rivera said that Alex Smith was “very close” to playing last week, for what it’s worth. Smith is the favorite to start, but we don’t know if he’ll be 100 percent.

Smith’s lack of mobility could really hurt him in this matchup, especially if Fletcher Cox returns to action. The Eagles were up 14-3 against the Cowboys when Cox left the game, and they were outscored 34-3 the rest of the way. Cox will put heavy heat on Smith, who will have to resort to throwing short passes. You know, the sort of passes he always throws.

It also remains to be seen if Terry McLaurin will play either. We know by now how bad the Eagles’ secondary is, but this won’t be a matchup the Redskins will be able to exploit if McLaurin is sidelined once again.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Coming off two impressive performances in his first pair of starts, Jalen Hurts was on the verge of becoming a superstar early against the Cowboys. He led a terrific touchdown drive to open the game, then hit DeSean Jackson for an 81-yard bomb. The Eagles were up 14-3, and it appeared as though they would steal the division.

Then, reality set in. Outscored 34-3 the rest of the way, Hurts really struggled, committing three turnovers. This even prompted my dad to call me and say, “Hurts thinks he’s a big shot. But he’s really a big s**t!” This game could be a bigger deuce for Hurts because of the rough matchup. The Redskins are ranked highly against the run, but not because of the talent in their secondary. It’s their defensive line, which is capable of winning games by itself. Chase Young and company will easily burst through Philadelphia’s injury-ravaged offensive line.

Another factor is Hurts’ inexperience versus Ron Rivera. One of the better defensive-minded coaches in the NFL, Rivera will have a great game plan prepared for the rookie, giving Hurts looks he’s never dreamt of before. This could result in more turnovers.

RECAP: The matchup edge certainly favors the Redskins, save for one important aspect. They’ll win in the trenches when the Eagles have the ball, and Rivera should be able to force Hurts into mistakes. However, Smith’s health is the big question mark. If he’s not 100 percent, it could make it very difficult for the Redskins to win this game, despite the advantages they have defensively.

Also, don’t forget about Aurora Snowmo. Once again, Aurora Snowmo is a condition where an NFL team needs to win and is battling an opponent that has been eliminated from the playoffs. The Redskins will certainly be in position to choke, as Aurora Snowmo will wrap her dead hands around the Redskins’ neck and drag them down into the icy lake of doom.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Alex Smith and Terry McLaurin missed Wednesday’s practice, but Smith at least returned Thursday. There’s also a bit of optimism for McLaurin, though he has yet to practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: I liked the Eagles a lot earlier in the week, as this was an Aurora Snowmo situation with the Redskins likely to choke in a must-win situation with a hobbled quarterback. Alex Smith will still be hobbled, so that’s not the issue. The problem seems to be that the Eagles are throwing in the towel. They’re opting to sit Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, Fletcher Cox and Derek Bennett. They’ve also lost yet another offensive lineman, Jordan Mailata. This is a major bummer because I wanted to bet the Eagles heavily, but that’s no longer a smart decision. I still like them when getting the hook, but I don’t know if I can bet this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s so much sharp money (and public action) on the Redskins, which would explain why this line has skyrocketed. I think the Eagles could still win though, so I may end up betting this game, despite all of Philadelphia’s injuries.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Look, I know the Eagles have so many inactives in this game, but this spread is absurd. If this line were still Washington -2.5, I don’t know whom I’d pick. Maybe the Redskins? Maybe? Remember, Alex Smith and Terry McLaurin are not healthy. I’m not sure they even deserve to be favored. Plus, don’t forget about Aurora Snowmo lurking in the shadows. With the public betting the Redskins into oblivion with FOMO wagers, I’ll gladly take the value with the Eagles. I’m not crazy about betting them because of how many absences they have, but this number is too good to pass up. I’ll bet two units on the Eagles at +7 -120 at Bovada.

Also… I have a pending Giants 18/1 divisional prop on the line. I’m going to bet the Redskins moneyline to hedge. The best I see is -280 at Bovada, so this will be 2.8 units to win one. I wouldn’t recommend this if you’re not hedging.